Game 92, Orioles at Mariners
Dave · July 18, 2007 at 6:30 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Bedard Cabrera vs Washburn, 7:05 pm.
Erik Bedard scratched with a stiff neck. Or he’s just terrified of Jose Guillen, who is hitting something like .850/.900/3.431 against lefties this year.
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Another chance to breathe down the Angel’s necks. LAA trailing TB 7 to 1 at the 7th inning stretch.
Well the Angels are getting beat again by Tampa Bay lets see if we can gain a game.
And Cleveland lost tonight too!
Yep, let’s hope we can take advantage of both these things tonight!
I doult it’s because he’s scare of Gullien but however in a way it’s good the M’s miss having to face him and in a way bad cause while Cabrera isn’t a Bedard.
He isn’t exactly a pushover either.He’s one of the pesky RHPers who can make you hit because he’s close in on the K zone while not exactly getting the K’s in any great numbers.
So don’t let his numbers fool you he’s a tough cookie and if he could cut down on the BB a bit more and maybe raise his GB to FB ratio more in favor of groundball I would consider trading for him as long as the price was any higher than say Reed/Reitsma as an example of my point.
Bearman, try a comma or some other form of punctuation. It will make your sentences happier, not to mention the people reading them.
However the M’s have a good record with Washburn on the mound following a loss so hopefully that will hold true.
Yes 1thru 4 the Angels are getting beat by the D-Rays and the Chi Sox knock off the Indians so the M’s are in a excellent position with a win to gain ground in both the AL West and the wild card.
(this a futher addition to my comment numbered as 5)
Daniel Cabrera:
K/9: 7.35
BB/9: 4.59 (!)
G/F: 1.35
Neither a heavy groundball nor flyballer, with a decent K rate. His biggest problem is his propensity to give up walks.
Against the Mariners? That could be trouble. The Mariners are a team that isn’t built to work the count and draw walks. Cabrera could work himself into trouble and the M’s will bail him out by hacking at bad stuff.
Cabrera’s woes with his control are well known; Didn’t the team face a pitcher fairly recently (within a month) with a similar problem and come out not swinging? I seem to remember Ibanez saying something about a team meeting where that was a focus.
I like having Broussard in the lineup against a righty, but, if I read the lineup correctly, he replaces Ibanez. Is Ibanez hurt? If not, that is an odd way to get Broussard into the order.
Watching the pre game show on FSN, and they were interviewing an Oriole, and the topic of clubhouse chemistry came up, and the announcers breathlessly agreed that the difference in the M’s this year is because all the players get along so well.
I’m thinking that if a person doesn’t understand how baseball games are won or lost, then it all seems like magic.
10 – Baker’s blog says Ibanez is going to rest the two games. I also like Broussard in the lineup, just not in LF.
Daniel Cabrera has great “stuff” but major control problems. In other words, he can be a lot of fun to watch, and very frustrating for Oriole fans. (Early Randy Johnson?)
So if you have a chance, get to a TV soon!
I just read Baker’s blog. He explains that Ibanez was going to be given the night off with Bedard on the mound. Ellison would have started, but he was replaced with Broussard when Cabrera was named as the Orioles’ SP. I don’t like that explanation.
Cabrera’s leading the majors in walks with 65, and he’s tied for second in hit batsmen with 10. If the M’s can squeeze out three or four free trips to first, I like their chances. Cabrera’s stuff is filthy, and when he’s on he’s a beast. It’s just that he very rarely happens to be on.
Go M’s!
I seem to remember Cabrera dominating us on one or two prior occasions. Anyone know for sure?
15 – The sad thing about Cabrera’s walk total is that Morrow has given up half that amount as a reliever…
This isn’t necessarily good news because Cabrera has good career numbers against the M’s.
But at least we know he’s just not as good a pitcher as Bedard, so there’s that hope.
In other news, to further discourage trade speculation, Dontrelle Willis was shelled today for eleven hits in three innings, giving up six runs.
I’m glad to see Raul, of the .233 OBA in July, get some time off. A lot of time off.
This is Italian-American night, so you have to be good to me, otherwise something unfortunate will happen.
11
What’s easier to sell to the masses, VORP and regression to the mean or ‘team chemistry’? I think you nailed it.
#14 – Agreed. All of that could be solved with one simple solution. sigh.
21: Do you have cousins named Guido? Or brothers with the middle name “The”?
Lets go M’s! We can move up big time with this game!
24 – I do
Team chemistry does matter. It doesn’t directly win games, but it brings the best out of your guys. Although, it does take at least two to turn a DP and communication as well as knowledge of each others tendencies is a must.
Ah, the chemistry folks are out in force tonight. I should have something to say on the subject: I’m an actual, live, professional chemist.
Your cause-and-effect is backwards. Teams have good chemistry because they win. They don’t win because they have good chemistry.
11: “Correlation does not equal causation” strikes again.
That was a garbage swing, lucky single.
That was an example of a play someone else might be able to reach diving, that Ichiro just runs down.
27:
Sure, there’s some extra element that can’t be quantified, and it is fun for us fans. Plus, I would think that for an announcer, once he starts talking statistics, the valid ones anyway, he immediately makes his turd-polishing job a thousand times harder. I guess that’s how they manage to still be excited about Richie Sexson.
I swear Jarrod Washburn looks like a chipmunk.
33: I say rabbit.
34 – Rabbit sounds good too.
24 – I almost had a nephew named Vinnie, until my parents intervened.
I don’t understand how a “bench player” can just come in and hit in the #4 spot. If he is really good enough to be hitting 4th, then he should not be on the bench. If he is not… well then he should not be hitting 4th…
or am I missing something?
#37 – “logic is a beautiful flower that smells bad.”
37: What it means is that the team should be platooning more.
I’m a big fan of Beltre, but “hot hitter” is a weird way to describe him at the moment.
Adrian had his happy feet on that ball.
Beltre’s like Icy Hot.
The Hitter Formerly Known as Hot.
40: Beltre is hitting .353/.433/.647 this month.
40:
I noticed that too.
Blowers: “Hot hitter in Beltre on deck.”
Niehaus: “And here comes Adrian Beltre… 1 for his last 15.”
I saw the RJ comparison there in that at bat. For those three pitches, he located them just perfectly – down and away, followed by down and in to get the K. Lets hope we can just keep getting runners on base (plate discipline!) and we’ll be fine…
44- Sure, but he’s also 1 for his last 20.
Aubrey Huff could not have had a good time in Junior High School. Name alone.
45 – Oops, I thought he said 19. So, one for his last 16, I guess.
44 – Believe me, not unhappy with Beltre, just thought it was a weird descriptor to use.
I wish Sexson was as fast as Ichiro; then he’d be even better.
great at bat by Kenji. Already at 36 pitches.
Yay! Free outs.
Argh.
It looked like Mazzone was having to yell so that his voice would carry up to Cabrera, like my youngest child trying to get my attention.
Lopez must be pissed he has turned into McLaren’s bunt bitch.
(”Argh” for sacrifice, not YuBet, who gets a “Yay!”)
With that sac bunt by Lopez, the M’s chances of winning the game went from 55% to 54%.
Despite the bloop single and the single by Ichiro, I think the sac bunt there by Lopez is a mistake. Cabrera leads the league in walks and had walked two in a row. Why give up an out? Why not see if he can even throw a strike?
Ichiro earning his money unlike some other guys on this team.
57: …Why not see if Lopez can’t get a hit? He might make an out, but he also might advance the runners, and the sacrifice has a risk of failure also. Totally agree.
You know, at times you think Cabrera has potential. But you can’t help tempering that set of what-if’s with the fact that if Mazzone can’t fix him, slim chance others can…
That Cilias commercial is great.
*Cialis
Dont forget, the purpose of a sac bunt is not just to advance the runners. It is also to prevent the possibility of a DP. (yes, if you screw up the sac bunt it could turn into a DP as well but chances are slim) Remember, the runners were both extremely slow (Kenji and Sexson).
Not to say that was the best move at the time (especially considering it is only the 2nd inning), bunting with no outs with runners on 1st and 2nd is not such a bad strategy in general.
Ichiro makes another play someone else probably doesn’t reach diving.
I just don’t understand why Ichiro won’t dive for those balls. It would make some of the idjits here so much more content with him.
When Mazzone went out to the mound to talk to him, on TV it looked like he was on his knees looking up at Cabrera.
65: Risk of injury (both long-term and immediate). Ichiro doesn’t take a day off with back spasms.
64 – I agree, especially with how shallow he was playing.
Not to say that was the best move at the time (especially considering it is only the 2nd inning), bunting with no outs with runners on 1st and 2nd is not such a bad strategy in general.
Of course, if it was a good strategy in that situation, it would actually increase your chances of winning the game.
Ichiro sure lookd a lot better going back on the ball instead of coming in on one.
#63
As Earl Weaver used to say: “There’s a place in baseball for the sacrifice bunt. Somewhere in the back of the closet, rarely taken out and used.” You only get 27 outs in a game. Giving them away, even for two bases, is still a dubious proposition, although for a run late in the game I will concede it makes more sense, but there, with a pitcher who cannot find the strike zone, and a good hitter at the plate, don’t take the bat out of his hands (I am assuming, perhaps, more patience than Lopez maybe has, to take pitches).
69: A double play decreases expected runs more than a sacrifice does. So does a strikeout. But early? With Lopez? The calculated risk is poor. I’d have Bloomquist swinging most of the time.
* any out that doesn’t advance the runners
#69
And your evaluation of “chances of winning the game” is dependant on some mathematical formula which somebody came up with. Though I do not know what exactly this formula uses to calculate these percentages, I assure you it does not take into account every single aspect of the game.
I think you’d have a hard time making a logical case for a play that, if it was successful decreases the chance of winning.
It’s Mendoza Line Sexson at the plate. Truth be told, I’d be tempted to have him bunt. He’s been near useless otherwise.
And as I type that … double play.
Sacrificing with Sexson is the smart play these days.
I hope Sexson is contemplating early retirement. Cripes.
[sarcasm] I guess that wild pitch vindicates Sexson’s DP grounder since he got a runner over to third. [/sarcasm]
74:
You’re completely ignorant of the method used to evaluate the chances of winning the game, and yet you claim your ignorance helps you evaluate why someone else is wrong?
You might start by asking where that probability number comes from before tossing out wild accusations.
Perhaps we should send Sexson down to Tacoma; he’s clearly not ready for the Majors yet.
Sexson can’t bunt, but I would rather have Sexson try cause I imagine he could only cause 1 out and no advance instead of a DP. His Mendoza line floating isn’t worth it if hes not going to hit 30 HR’s and 100+ RBI’s. Both of which he is not on pace for.
Good hustle by Washburn.
82 – But any day now he’s “due” to “heat up”.
If he didn’t move, that would have drilled him in the face.
Washburn gets the Eckstein Award for today. Way to hustle!
86- Here it is called Grit.
74: Actually, no. You can look at expected runs in every possible situation.
Expected runs with runner on first, no outs: 0.9032
Expected runs with runner on second, one out: 0.70233
Expected runs with runners on first and second, no outs: 1.4842
Expected runs with runners on second and third, one out: 1.4704
That’s not a projection, it’s actual data from games played this year (and you can look at previous years, but the numbers barely change).
A successful sacrifice bunt slightly decreases your chance to score a run. That doesn’t mean you should never do it. It may be late in a game that will be decided by that one run. The pitcher could be batting; after all, giving up an out to advance the runners is better than giving up an out without advancing the runners (or even worse, a double play). But everything else (swing but groundout and “sacrifice” anyway, walk, or base hit) is at least as good or better. Even if the batter’s OBP is poor, it’s still almost always better to let them swing. Outs are precious; you only get 27. After every out, the game is significantly closer to ending. Unless it’s close and late, an out for a base just isn’t a good trade.
80:
I am not accusing anyone of anything so do not make it such a big deal. All I am saying is that I highly doubt anybody can come up with any method of calculating the chances of winning a ballgame, since there are waaaaay too many things you have to consider to make an 100% accurate calculation. And you know what, thats what makes baseball (or other sports in general) a lot of fun to watch.
88:
Slight correction to your wording. In that situation (runners on 1st and 2nd, no out), your chances of scoring one run go up, but your expected run value goes down. So you’re more likely to get one, but you’re less likely to have a big inning.
Dave put up an article in yesterday’s game thread that covers most of it.
I’m curious what Dave or other regulars here REALLY think as regards the Twins and Yankees playoff chances. Both are rounding into good form and I think their chances are much better than, say, Geoff Baker thinks they are. I’m worried about both teams.
It is amazing when you look at the RS/RA numbers. The M’s are +10 (10 more runs scored than allowed) and an amazing 13 games over .500 (and, yes, I know about the Weaver factor and blow out losses/close wins). The Yankees are +83 but only 4 games over .500 and the Twins are +44 and 5 games over .500.
I don’t think Cleveland/Detroit for the wild card is our only concern. Do others differ?
this is not one of the swift-moving Washburn games.
a lot of people are noting Sexson’s struggles lately … PI,
SI and the Olympian
88:
yes, I understand your point, and I have seen that kind of data before. But this is data taken from various teams with various players at various ballparks etc. etc. etc… This is not data from some lab experiment where every single condition is kept the same.
on AVERAGE, yes, you are completely right, and you know what, probably you are right in this case too, and I am not arguing against any of the data your brought up. All I am saying is, just because past data says on average bunting is a bad idea, it doesn’t mean its ALWAYS a bad idea.
I love it when Ichi-kun hits doubles.
88: Yeah, that’s “chance of scoring X runs” rather than “chance of scoring any runs”. I’ll check out that article, thanks.
91- I am more concerned with the Twins, they had that comeback last year to win the division. Yankees are to streaky right now to worry about, next week they will go 2-4 and the media will jump back off the bandwagon.
My Turbo Lover!
89: For the record, it’s not like someone came up with an arbitrary formula based on what he thinks is likely. It’s based on history, i.e. how successful certain moves have been over the course of baseball history at scoring runs.
Baseball Prospectus’ “Baseball Between the Numbers” book does a good job of explaining it in a way that I don’t think I can.
90*
Counting out the Yanks is a mistake. They have a lineup which, if it gets healthy, is capable of bludgeoning other teams into submission. And more than any team in baseball, they have the resources (or, at least, the willingness to use resources) to replace the weak links in their lineup.
I am not a Vidro fan, but if he keeps the doubles up and hits .330 I would vote for Ibanez’s playing time cut down when A Jones comes up.
Vidro creeps back over .300
I’m finding it hard to argue with that, although, Lord knows, I want to.
Jose Vidro not fighting for starting spot: OPS .698
Jose Vidro on the hot seat: OPS 1.095
Hmm, should have lit a fire under his butt months ago. Now, if we could only get Ibanez to fess up he’s injured and get him on the DL…
Dive, Ichiro, dive!
Ichiro goes back on baseballs better then anyone in the game, it is a joy to watch.
That was the third potentially-diving-play this game Ichiro got to on his feet.
With regards to this bunting issue, the mountains of empirical data suggest that bunting will lower your overall expected run total. The more samples you have, the better the expectancies model the actual phenomena. So if “on average” you are losing runs when you behave in a certain way, isn’t it a good idea to stop behaving in that way?
Along the same lines, I’d love to see a well-done Monte Carlo simulation of the run expectancies versus the actual data. I’d imagine they are similar, but it would be fun to see.
Ben B has a sweet home run stroke – a no-doubt-about-it when it happens.
BIG BEN!!!
There’s our righty-masher!
Don’t know what more Broussard needs to do to keep a starting spot heh.
Can’t a big guy like Richie get shin splints real easily? Like if Ben Gilooleys him with a bat? 30 days on the DL would be great.
He started his swing when the ball was still in Cabrera’s hand.
Broussard not getting five starts a week is a CRIME!!
Nice. Before I learned that Bedard was scratched I had a bad feeling about this one. Now with Broussard’s HR I feel about 90% confident of a win.
Broussard should point to Sexson’s Avg and OPS every time he hits a HR.
Why is Broussard not the starting 1B? He’s clearly a better all-around hitter than Sexson and is just as solid at first. I think that Richie has moved in to the “Boone” years. It’s time to give him his walking papers.
116 – that’s right about where fangraphs has us at this point…
116: That’s funny, ‘cuz fangraphs says 92%.
At what point does the team give up on this “sure thing” Richie 2nd half streak? He just looks awful at the plate.
Digression. I love baseball. I’m pretty bloody ADD, and I have two young children, so I’m usually trying to do 12 things at once. Sitting on the sofa and watching a game with a beer in one hand is hard for me. Soccer I can manage – 90 minute of play, and such beguiling geometry to watch. Any American game, clocking in at 3 hours or so – that’s a no no.
But, I can listen to a game on the radio without ignoring the rest of my life. And I think baseball was made for radio in the same way that it was made for multiple regression analysis. Perhaps it’s just the melifluous tones of Dave Niehaus, perhaps it’s the almost cricket-esque tempo (cricket is also brilliant to listen to without images. Test Match Special on the BBC is priceless) but I love listening to baseball on the radio.
Now, you can’t always find a long wave radio with a KOMO 1000 signal, so a few years ago, marooned in San Antonio early in the season, I ponied up my 15 bucks for MLB Radio. What a bargain! I’ve never looked back.
But only recently have I realised the real benefit of online radio. No Farmer’s Insurance commercials, just peaceful silence between innings. Ahhh, I’m loving it.
Go M’s!
#121
My guess, last week of season.
Two reasons why I think the Angels are catchable this year: Bartolo Colon and Ervin Santana.
Does anyone know if the M’s ever contacted Harold Reynolds in the off-season to broadcast games? I’m not much of a Simms fan. I realize that Reynolds mostly did analyst work, but he did help call games for the CWS.
Ah, the rally fries …. here to stay I suspect (sigh). Just did a Google search and have you all seen this?
Rally Fries T-Shirt
The apocalyse is near.
Well, got the link wrong first time, let’s try again
Rally Fries T-Shirt
124 – I believe that Santana’s been sent to AAA, where he’ll get a chance to hone his road-pitching skills in Albuquerque and Colorado Springs.
fishiam, have you seen the web site ? mikeblowersfries.com
I still say that it’s better than that stupid bouncing monkey….
Poah Kevin Millah. That musta haat (hurt).
Cruel American League….Assuming we win tonight, the M’s will be 2 games out of having the best record in ALL of baseball yet would miss the playoffs if they started today.
Reason I think the Mariners will catch the Angels.
HoRam and Vidro.
As I live in Italy I don’t get to see many games, what is this silly thing with the “rally” fries?
Fan went diving for a ground ball…dumped his fries on the field…one of the TV announcers sent him another order of fries…M’s won…
Funk blasts and rally fries. As American as apple pie.
129: No I hadn’t but I can state that I was the 30th person to do so … is that actually YOUR website?
124 Santana just got booted to AAA today.
133 – They have secret Wonder Twins powers?
132- Good thing we got 70 games left then huh?
#135 Well I guess it’s better than the nightmare we’d see with a “Refuse to Booze” campaign.
Wish there wasn’t so much money wrapped up in Sexson. Ben is doing everything right, Sexson is barely producing…
Can someone explain what drives the Mariners to put him in the lineup every day still? Money isn’t really a reason… Is there something he is providing to this team this year that I’m overlooking? Not trying to be a smartass (for once), just trying to understand.
128 didn’t see your comment, sorry
Depending on how this game plays out, I like the M’s chances of catching up in the AL west over the weekend. M’s get Toronto and the Angels get Minnesota.
So the Angels demoted Santana, but actived Napoli – I wonder who’ll be their 5th starter, then.
Spealing on #122’s comment on the advantages of radio baseball: Niehaus cannot see the ball off the bat, but he just started rhapsodizing about the “layered effect of the clouds in the distance” and I could actually see them too.
Nicely done Roberts…you’re still a shmuck….
Thats what he gets!
The Brian Roberts we all know from the All-Star game. What is his glove made of anyways?
A nice illustration of small ball working out. Without Roberts racing to cover 2nd, that is an easy ground ball out. Selective use of small ball tactics is a good thing.
Baseball is episodic with crescendos and lulls. It has tension and release. It is perfect for radio (and for writing for that matter)
#142
My guess is they are too embarrassed to bench someone making 11 million or so a year either that or they aren’t aware that Broussard would probably do better at this point.
Mathematically, the jury’s in on bunting: Often a bad idea. I don’t know that anyone’s done a similar study on the hit and run.
Really making Ichiro bunt? This is a joke…
Does Ichiro still bunt here?
Jones 5-5. When is he going to get the call up. Tonight would have been perfect, put B in for Richie and let Jones play for Ibanez.
Ichiro should never sac bunt, if he is bunting for a hit that is different. He was looking to sac right there.
144, I’m guessing probably Joe Saunders.
Come on Vidro…
Infield single.
At some point, especially nearing the playoffs, you have to decide what’s best for the team and put the dollar signs aside.
The Jones story is not worth repeating. He has nothing else to prove at that level. He is ready. Everyone -including the front office- knows this. It is all about politics now.
155, Wasn’t Jones 5-5 last night as well?
161 – Those are last nights stats.
162 Thanks
ok, to put a fork in the sac bunt with 0 out scenario… It is management’s way of creating damage control. Yes, the expected runs drop by a small fraction when it is completed. But look at the alternative: 120(1st and 2nd) 1.4842(0 out) 0.85492(1 out). So you take away the possibility of having such a signigicant drop in expected runs by taking a much much smaller one.
J.J wasn’t on the cover of SI was he?
…take away the possibility of Turbo GIDP…. =)
Jones is 1 for 5 tonight.
Mateo just blew the save for the Rainiers.
Sexson is 0fer and Broussard is far below average in the OF. If only we had a good OF that could hit we could move Ben to 1B. If only…
160 – I would argue that the facts you lay out make it even more worth repeating.
Adam Jones catches that.
I’ll be the first one to say it.
AJ would have caught that ball.
We want Sean!
We want Sean!
We want Sean!
And that is why Ben is no good in LF.
Almost the first one
170 – I know. I am trying to convince myself there is no reason to talk about it.
171- AJ catches that, we know… but I think BB actually has more range in left than Raul. Agree?
I do agree with you 177
177 – Maybe a little. From Horrible to Bad would be about right I think.
So why is Washburn still in this game?
Better throw by Guillen gets that runner.
The votes are in and now it is time for the… Governor?
110 pitches. Struggling. Pitching to a RH hitter. We have another idiot manager.
Saving the bullpen for the offseason after we miss the playoffs.
I hate you Washburn. The guy appears to sometimes have the ability to get strikeouts and miss bats, but then he’ll sandwich those starts with a start in which he doesn’t strike anybody out over 7 or more innings.
He earns his less then 5 K/9 rate.
169 — I’ve heard rumors of some kid in AAA.
I think I’ve already seen this one…..
Are we trying to give this one away too?
Ok, what is up with Yuni?
Jesus.
Adam Jones catches that as well.
Derp.
Yikes. Ugly.
That’s on Betancourt.
It’s like watching little league with the walks and flyball confusion
WTF is Yuni doing? We might need to look for a SS in the off season…
The sad thing is, there’s nobody up watching at midnight in Baltimore to get excited about this.
If we lose this will be on the manager.
And Angels fans erupt in applause everywhere.
They gave that error to Broussard — ridiculous.
Time for a 3 inning save from JJ :p
I honestly think the season is over if something doesn’t happen in the next week.
Brandon — on what basis would you say that? There’s still a lot of ball to play.
#200 and now they just made it a base hit. How in the world is that a hit? Do they feel bad for Yuni or something?
202: Can we get a definition of “something”?
Thank you, Sean!!!
I heard this saying in baseball that goes: Before the season, every team can count on 54 wins, and 54 losses. It is what you do with the 54 games left will decide what season you will have. If the Mariners lose, put this game into the 54 undecided game category.
Isn’t ironic… don’t ya think?
ITS LIKE HAVING BEN BROUSSARD IN LEFT FIELD AND ADAM JONES IN TRIPLE-A.
was that al martin and carlos guillen out there deep in coverage ?
Yuni usually catches those balls…..Broussard IMO was in the way there. I know Yuni should give to the outfielder but Yuni was clearly calling that one all the way. Yuni to me had the ball read the whole way….and considering that Broussard has so little experience in LF it should’ve been Yuni’s play.
Regardless…..ADAM JONES makes the play. This game is making me sick to my stomach….we cannot not capitalize on the Angels losing to the DRays’s 2 nights in a row.
Bring the FUNK BB
#210 How can you say that Adam Jones makes the play when Yuni is not giving way? I’m sorry, but that ball is the LF’s, regardless how good the SS is (or how bad when our SS has nearly 20 errors already).
210- No. That in NO WAY is Yuni’s ball, he goes for it till Broussard calls it, which he clearly did. Then Yuni gets the hell out of the way so we can get out of the inning with the lead.
Gomez’s windup reminds me of good ol Freddy. He seems to leave it in his hand just a little longer, then has a violent wrist snap.
The only way Sexson gets any OBP….
Ritchie got hit! Yes!
Heh, how about a Funk Plunk instead.
By the way, I’ve missed a few games lately and didn’t realize that Yuni was ALREADY at 20 errors.
Well done, Richie!!!
214 – You nailed. I couldn’t figure out who he reminded me off. He’s a little more violent than Freddy. And smaller
84% chance of scoring here… one has to think that goes up against the Baltimore bullpen…
MacLaren calling a double steal with Sexson?
Now do you all really still hate selective small ball? That was smart.
Don’t strike out you mofo.
Awesome double steal! With Richie trailing no less!
Best part is Kenji can’t GIDP now.
It looked like Adrian almost slid off the bag, lol
And the catcher didn’t try to throw him out, but went for the lead runner instead?
Maybe Richie was going so slow he didn’t think he was actually headed for second.
I’ll take a wild pitch for 200 alex.
221 84% huh? It’s got to be down to like what 10% now with a slumping Lopez at the plate?
Add two more to the LOB count.
Lopez looked like an abused puppy after that out.
So who’s going to be the first to say that Richie only pads his SB count when the game has already been decided?
Seeing Broussard floundering around in the outfield makes me a sad panda.
230-
runs expected with 1st and 2nd 1 out is .84. It then went up to 1.47 with the double steal, down to .6something with the johj strikout.
#232
Michael Vick plays baseball?
yes.
If Broussard calls Yuni off then it is his ball…..it didn’t look like that happened till the last second IMO.
Hernandez… lopez… whatever.
They should have waited to use the fries.
It’s a two inning game, and you’ve gotta like our chances against this Baltimore team!
235 Are you saying that it went down only to %60 with the Johjima strikeout?
Mike Hargrove must be managing tonight’s game by text message.
243 lol
I’m thinking they don’t have quite the offense they think they have.
and that the bullpen has worked a lot this season.
yep! runners on 2nd and 3rd, two out = .60 run expectancy. BTW, anyone have a Win Probability up on the M’s right now?
Something is mostly Adam Jones. I count 5 outs we should have made that inning. Plus Jones has a strong arm that probably holds the 5th run at third on that line drive or at least makes it a play at home.
Other somethings- Not having Sexson starting everyday with a .200 Batting Average and the lowest OPS of any regular first baseman by about 50 points. Not to mention he is horribly slow and crappy at defense. Ben needs to be starting every game against RH pitchers.
The horrible lineups with Ibanez and his sub .550 OPS vs lefties in the third spot and DP machine Vidro 2nd. Using the same lineup regardless of the handedness of the pitcher we face is horrible.
Letting starting pitchers stay in with 100+ pitches after giving up more than 2 hits in an inning when the bullpen is the teams greatest strength.
Sacrifice Bunting with Lopez or Ichiro! giving the opponents free outs. Especially when this is happening in the first few innings.
Being completely impatient as the plate and swinging at countless ball 4s. Being unable to score a runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs.
LAA and Cleveland are not going to keep losing so we need to be winning especially against a team like Baltimore.
This is making me sick to my stomach, we need to push one across this inning!
Mariner Win Expectancy leading into the bottome of the 8th is 61%.
Sean Green = Chile Verde! Careful guys, he’s quite hot on the palate! (no? Ok, I’m not a color guy *tear)
Yuuuuuni. It’s redemption time. Well, pseudo redemption.
Yuni’s having a night.
Would it be crazy if they didn’t bunt now? Should they?
Apology accepted, Yuni
Alright Yuni. Just get one run here and turn it over to JJ.
This team right now is good enough for the FO not to change a thing but not good enough to win the division or Wild Card.
Quagmire Mariners.
Looks like the infield pop-up thing’s getting old for Betancourt.
Also: I’m pretty sure when Ichiro bunts, he’s trying to get a hit. Corner playing deep or whatever.
And that double added 13# to our WE, thus we’re now at 74% WE.
256: Giggity Giggity.
Woohoo! Odds are on us scoring (1.16) and we give it to JJ! I’m calling it a ballgame…
Oreos must not have access to any kind of stats, Ichiro hits Lefties better.
246 I guess that means I should get more excited when we have a man on 2nd and 3rd with two outs and a batter at the plate who is 3 for 23 over the last 7 games.
We’re in the -only- game situation in which a bunt makes sense: late in the game, need one run, nobody out, man on second (or first and second). Plus, Ichiro might beat it out anyway.
Yup. Bunt here.
Small ball dudes, do the M’s bunt now and play for the one run with Ichiro? Do we let him hit away and hope that he can at least move Yuni to third?
Ichiro owns the O’s. You have to let him hit here.
I think they have an offense, but it’s just streaky as hell IMO.
Ichiro wasn’t squaring off.
Sac bunt here would drop our expected runs scored to .96. With Ichiro! up, I better not see it…
shoot, he had a pitch to crank too.
If the M’s take the lead PUT ELLISON IN LEFT FIELD!
Now that was a long bunt.
So that’s as good as a bunt, and almost a lot better
My last comment was for 245.
He swung away and still advanced the runner.
Ellison is already in left field, I believe.
271 He already is according to Gameday.
It’d drop our expected runs, but increase our likelihood of scoring at least one. I’ll take a better chance at one over a better chance at zero and more than one.
Well, I’ll take that warning-track out, too.
Dare we look for the squeeze?
271 How about Ellison for turbo?
Who in their RIGHT mind Intentionally walks Jose F’ing Vidro?
That was almost a Vlad Guerrero homer right there. That pitch almost hit Ichiro in the face.
ok, show us you really are a Professional Hitter.
oh, and #142, 151, see the Olympian link in #92– they still think he’s due to come out it
Ellison replaced Broussard last inning
McLaren better pinch run for Vidro with Willies.
Here’s hoping for one of Jose’s patented anger dingers.
oops Ellison already is in left, guess I wasn’t paying attention when that happened.
The Orioles are trying to lose, apparently.
McLaren better pinch run for Vidro with Willie.
281: A team who sees Vidros been on fire lately and who playing a team with the go ahead run on 3rd?
They’re playing the “Rocky” theme?
OK, Guillen, don’t let them disrespect you like that.
Can Raul earn some UUUUs?
TIME TO EARN THOSE UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUs!
If the Mariners take the lead… PUT BLOOMQUIST IN LEFT FIELD!
Raul hit for Ellison?
I would think you would want a speedy person to run out any potential double plays. Guess not.
-UUUUs He’s now called Ral.
Worthless.
Does that mean that Raul now has to play left?
RAAUUUUUuuugh.
Why not suicide with willie.
Hey ump, you’re missin’ a great game!
Ball 4 #1.
Good to see him swing at the RBI ball 4 two pitches ago.
ugh. If I had a hat id be wearing it inside out…
Not even Beltre swings at that one! Woooooo.
Beltre!!!
Come on Sexson! Break this thing wide open!
and the O’s pitching bails out the M’s…
Yes!!! Let’s concede and get Putz in.
That’s hilarious.
That’s how bad teams lose.
And THAT is the ballgame, I don’t care what FanGraphs says. We have JJ.
jeez, just pull my nails out one by one, won’t you?
Sexson is just killing me.
Late on an 80 mile an hour pitch. ARG!!!!
“You know what time it is?”
“It’s JJ time!”
Mr. Automatic out strikes (out) again
Richie back under the Sexdoza line.
And with that strikeout Sexson falls below .200 to an impressive .199
Hung that one. But grinder got it.
I just don’t understand how they can’t get a basehit to score a run, they can’t hit a sacrifice fly to score a run, but they have to rely on a Beltre walk to win this game.
JJ keeps me out of AA.
Time to get revenge on Roberts.
Sims: Bradford thows it 68…when’s the last time ou saw THAT in a big league game?
Blowers: I don’t know if it wasn’t a knuckleballer…Wakefield, maybe?
JJD (screaming from his sofa): Jamie MOYER!! HELLO?!?!
At least JJ is about to wrap it up.
I don’t know why they’d pinch hit Raul for Ellison. Just doesn’t make sense to me.
Perfect ending against the man who blew his ASG save.
Ballgame!
JJ should have plunked him for booting the all star ground ball.
M’s win!
12 LOB, ugh!
JJ says “Thank you, Orioles. Drive through.”
Life is Beautiful. JJ even more so.
YES! 30 straight for JJ!!!
Payback’s a bitch Bip!
Baseball Tonight showed the play with Yuni and Ben. Yeech.
Strangely, I’m not 100% satisfied with this win or the 1st win in this series. They better get this offense straightened out before the Toronto series.
Nine pitch saves RULE.
Angie’s gotta be do any day, huh? She’s enormous!
I agree, dizzle. Our offense needs to get going. Every time I see Ibanez or Sexson at the plate I have no faith that they’ll get the job done. Lopez has been struggling as of late too. It’s good though to see Yuni getting back on track this series.
Yankees are seven back. Arod has 92 RBI already.
Angie has looked 10 months pregnant for the last 5 months. I’m starting to believe she has a hysterical pregnancy, and she’s going to be like that until the Mariners win the division again.
WooHoo!! Richie Sexson got his first stolen base of the season.
that was waaaaaay harder than it needed to be.
sometimes it is hard to believe that this team has the 5th best record in baseball.
She lives by where I work (near QWEST). She’s even more gigantic in person.
Not being satisfied with the win is acceptable…it was pure luck. They left Washburn in too long and GS52 blew it. The offense wasn’t terrible, just the usual why is Sexson playing in the big leagues stuff. That walk is what doomed Sherrill. Bad GS! It was basically horrible pitching on both teams, and we ended up lucking out the biggest!
Oh, except for Sean Green, he was $$$.
This gives me a reason to watch the Anaheim game tomorrow on local TV.
#336– apparently it is a burning question:
Q: Samantha Marshall of Kirkland asks: “Fox Sports anchor Angie Mentink, who often leads pregame or postgame M’s coverage, looks awfully pregnant these days. When is her baby due?”
AG: Mentink’s baby is due in late July.
You can’t give Beltre credit for drawing a walk? A pitcher like Bradford who comes from underneath, throws in the 70s and expands the strike zone on righthanded hitters is the kind of pitcher that used to eat Beltre for breakfast.
It wasn’t pretty, but it wasn’t luck, either. They didn’t completely capitalize on bases loaded with one out, but they didn’t go out 1-2-3 in the eighth, either.
And the game’s best closer closed it out.
#338– and it only gets easier for them…
I was not here tonight to join you all. However, aside from a “chemistry” post, Michael Vick getting brought up for some reason, and a couple other useless posts, it looks like tonight was a much happier time than last night!
Two out of three from a lousy team doesn’t suck.
Woohoo to playing Toronto next while LA plays Minnesota! We’ll be the Kings of the West at the end of LA’s next series, mark my words!
Don’t get too excited about the M’s playing Toronto. It’ll be just their luck to see the Blue Jays wake up from their sleepwalking through the NYY series (although Troy Glaus is the only one that might strike a little fear into a pitcher, just from his roster picture).
JJD, LOL at your post #324 about Blowers saying Wakefield and….and…nothing. Geez, Blowers PLAYED behind Moyer, what was he thinking besides…nothing??!!