Game 93, Mariners at Blue Jays
Dave · July 20, 2007 at 3:31 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Batista vs Litsch, 4:05 pm.
The M’s head north to take on Toronto as the road trip kicks off. The Blue Jays are pretty much the definition of a league average team, with some good hitters, some bad hitters, and an inexperienced rotation. Jesse Litsch, the kid going tonight, probably belongs in the minors, but he’s also exactly the kind of pitcher the M’s have struggled against the past 18 months. The main thing going for the M’s offense is that Litsch lacks any real outpitch, so with a pitch-to-contact guy on the mound, we should see a lot of balls in play tonight.
Standard line-up for the M’s.
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Dave –
Heard you on the radio today. First off congratulations! Second off, are you happy that it will probably be a weekly deal? Do you know what type of stuff you’ll talk about on a weekly basis? I did they tell you there were certain topics they want your input on, or a place where you would be a “specialist”? Or do you just get 10 minutes (or so) each week to show everyone how awesome you are?
Congrats again!
Here’s to a win today!
oh, it seems so much longer.
No Adam Jones. This is really where I thought he’d come up. Do we have any sort of speculation on a possible call up date, or has it been shelved until September?
*frustration*
I missed the intro to the interview – did Groz ask if Dave was doing the interview from his mom’s basement?
Or do you just get 10 minutes (or so) each week to show everyone how awesome you are?
I’m sure we’ll just cover whatever is topical that week. I think this week was something of an introduction, as we talked a bit about the blog, who we are, and what we do. I think going forward, we’ll talk mostly about the issues of the day involving the team.
That’s wonderful. How much bigger has the site gotten since you guys had the Felix success? And how much bigger do you think it’ll get with you doing radio shows every week?
After the interview, I worried that the influx of people coming to the site would crash the server…but it didn’t. So, yaaaay server!
That’s wonderful. How much bigger has the site gotten since you guys had the Felix success? And how much bigger do you think it’ll get with you doing radio shows every week?
Its obviously grown, but I really have no idea how much of an impact being on KJR will have. We’ll just have to see, I guess. We never set out to build a site that would gain a massive audience – that’s just happened. We’re still not totally sure how to handle it all, honestly.
Its obviously grown, but I really have no idea how much of an impact being on KJR will have. We’ll just have to see, I guess. We never set out to build a site that would gain a massive audience – that’s just happened. We’re still not totally sure how to handle it all, honestly.
You would think the references by Rob Neyer and Keith Law, among others, wouldn’t hurt either.
You would think the references by Rob Neyer and Keith Law, among others, wouldn’t hurt either.
More than the traffic they’re providing, I think we’ve seen a growth in credibility in the last year. From Neyer and Law to Simmons and Keri and Baker, the acknowledgment of some of our work by the mainstream press has helped legitimize that we’re not just crazy fans with spreadsheets, I think.
Really, that’s what I hope for the most out of this KJR gig. Hopefully, I can help get across that we’re not all nerds with calculators, but we’re just passionate fans who love this team and want to see it win.
That’s a first class play by McDonald.
Love Litsch’s photo on GameDay. Looks like the happiest man alive.
I don’t know if it’s just Web Gems or what, but I’ve been seeing a lot of his highlights lately. Is he as good as it appears?
McDonald’s one of the better defenders in baseball. Which is good, because he can’t hit at all.
Raul can retire anytime he wants.
how much longer are we stuck with raul?
beltre is so good
I traded Rios for Carlos Guillen early in the fantasy season. I thought I made a steal (and I still might have), but Rios has been very impressive so far. Nice to see him go back to his pre-random-disease form.
Hard to believe Ibanez leads this team in RBI’s.
19 If I batted behind Ichiro, I’d have a few RBI’s too.
Well, I might have one or two.
Well, I might have one or two.
I think I could get a bunt down on a suicide squeeze.
19: What does that say about the reliability of RBIs as a measure of performance?
ah yes, the famous hotel room
So far Dave’s prediction about struggling agains Litsch has held up. Maybe we’ll do better the second time through the line-up.
Fairly deep?
Litsch is impressive so far
19, 22 You are forgetting about Raul’s awesome strtech a few weeks ago.
Nice to see Niehaus did his homework on the opposing pitcher’s shoe size.
I’m tempted to say he’s actually better nowadays because he’s so ridiculous.
28 – don’t give in to temptation
Nice to see him go back to his pre-random-disease form.
It was an MRSA infection.
Awesome stretch? Ibanez had one good game, everyone got excited, and he’s 19 for his last 101 since. The guy’s done as an everyday player, and the fact that the M’s don’t recognize this is a mark against their ability to evaluate talent correctly.
I swear Niehaus drinks during the commercial breaks.
This game is starting out great.
Yikes. Batista’s ALL OVA THE PLACE!
Well, mostly low, according to GameCast.
Is Batista’s plan to walk a couple guys to set up the triple play?
Pat Tabler told me that Batista has 6 different pitches. He didn’t inform me that he is completely unable to hit the strike zone with any of them.
It was implied.
Now how about 9 straight called strikes.
glory glory hallelujah
Or did someone just grease the ball without letting Batista know?
Ball Twelve!
/Drunken Bob Uecker
looked mighty fair to me
small miracles
DP is huge.
okay, 0-18 slump, gotta get an out here
although, somehow I think Batista is a slumpbuster
Anyone know the record for consecutive balls thrown in an inning?
I don’t know why some of you are worried? This looks like a typical Batista game to me. Walk a lot batters, give up a few hits, and somehow still manage to look like he pitched a decent game when it’s all over. I’d be more concerned about the offense.
No big deal.
1 R, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 GIDP.
Typical Batista inning.
Pheeeewwww.
See what I mean…Batista has got this all under control.
anybody else watching this game on sportsnet? cuz alyssa milano is a freaking slooot
Slooot???
yeah, you know, sleeps around.
This looks like a typical Batista game to me. Walk a lot batters, give up a few hits, and somehow still manage to look like he pitched a decent game when it’s all over
He’s walked 3 so far, which is typical for a game, but not for 2 innings.
Number of walks in each of the last 10 starts for Batista (most recent at top):
2
3
5
2
4
5
0
3
2
4
54 Oh? first time I’ve heard someone use slooot instead of slut? Just when you think there’s nothing else you can learn from USSM.
Alright… in recognition of the Ichiro signing, I got tickets to next Sunday’s Turn Back the Clock game. In the bleachers, though, so I’m limiting the amount of money I’m giving to the team.
Ichiro played a little game at second after ball 4 to Vidro. Ichiro was running and the catcher threw down. That was a little funny.
What possible justification is there for batting Raul third? In which universe does that make sense? (I’m typing this as he is coming to bat).
Batista’s tied for 5th in the AL with walks given up. But hey, it could be worse. He’s given up 46 in 109 innings before today, and Robinson Tejeda’s given up 55 in 90 IP.
And it was confirmed with his 2nd roll over groundball to second…
yay… congratulations, I just figured out that Raul sucks… Not that it took Dave telling me that about 3000 times.
I believe that’s the first guy who hasn’t worked Batista for three balls.
You know Lauren, since you’re giving money to people to see baseball games, you could decide to come to one of the two USSM/LL outings. Just a suggestion.
Raul must be hurt . . . someone needs to stand up and make a change.
Let’s face it Batista just likes to pick and choose who he wants to pitch to. If that means walking a batter or two to get to that person so be it.
Way to smack the hell out of that one Raul!
Batista…4th best ERA since June 13th
Well… the thing is, I just don’t pay as much attention to statistics as the rest of you. And I don’t play fantasy baseball. So I really don’t pay much attention to the minor leagues and would just have to sit there attempting to be cute, which is an affront to my sense of feminism.
We could hook you up with Corco. That’d make it worth while.
Corco’s comment alert just went haywire
Corco took down his Blog and has been MIA.
oh freaking snap
Good Beltre!
I don’t think Corco even fits under the half-your-age-plus-seven rule for me. Thanks for the awesome offer though!
that was DIRTY!!!! Nasty Beltre!!!
That really far.
Lauren, did you just call yourself older than corco?
Hrmph. GameCast is frozen.
68 – Or maybe Alyssa Milano. I hear good things about her.
88: isn’t everyone?!
I find that half-your-age-plus-ten works better as a rule of thumb.
I’m new to posting. Not here because of the radio, though I’d loved to have caught it. But can’t listen at work. I feel the need to jump in on the Raul/Jones discussion. I have to admit, I’m a big fan of Raul — saw him down in Spring Training and he was smacking the ball all over the place. But lately, both offensive and defensive he seems lackluster. did he get a whiff of what plagued Hargrove? I really want to see Adam come up but I also want Raul to get back to his old days. We could use Adam at 1st base as well if you ask me
Hey! We’re up 2-1! Yay!
…stupid gamecast…
We should trade for Wells. He’d fit in fine if that AB was anything to go by.
78: Why would you want to hook up Alyssa Milano with Corco?
Beltre strong like bull.
I wish I could stay and watch the rest of the game with you guys, but I have to go open my show tonight.
GO M’S!!!!!
I really want to see Adam come up but I also want Raul to get back to his old days.
Old man time gets the best of all of us.
My first post on this site will not be having me state that a funk blast just happened.
Congradualtions Dave on being on the radio. I was a little dissapointed about it only lasting 10 minutes long but it was still nice to here the voice behind the posts.
have you guys (and gal) ever talked about putting together something like an IRC chat so we can discuss this live versus posting comments?
Dave, for your radio gig were you in the studio or remote?
52 88fingersluke
What is Sportsnet?
Dizzle, it’s a Canadian sports channel, sort of like FSN. There are four different channels (one for each region of Canada).
They show all the Blue Jay games and then in the Pacific region, they show some M’s games. This one is in HD.
Hi-def Raul sucking is still Raul sucking, I might add.
31, Dave, with due respect to your superior (to mine) knowledge, it was more thatn one good game. The first 12 games of June he had 17 hits with three home runs and a triple. During that time he had an 0 for 5 game that broke a ten game hitting streak. I agree he is in a slump now. I agree also that Jones should be in left field.
And then I just saw a hi-def view of Mclaren grabbing his crotch. My eyes!!!!
Why wouldn’t anyone hook themselves up with Alyssa Milano?
84 – I wouldn’t. I was actually mounting a mild and completely ineffective protest to the slur on her character.
97: if you saw the ad that I saw, I think your protest would have been milder and even more ineffective.
81 you’re probably just in love with the 2006 Ibanez. If you eliminate his 06 stats and replace them with his 07 stats, then his sudden decline wouldn’t be as shocking.
Alyssa might not be a slut, but she designs hIiIIiIiiiiiideous baseball-themed clothing.
To this day I still find it intriguing that Toronto is actually ‘South’ of Seattle. East-East-East-East-Southeast to be exact.
92. Thanks 88fingerslukee, I guess I won’t be able to validate if what you’re saying is true.
101: parts of Canada actually extend down as far south as Eureka (not Yreka), California.
/Fun Facts
Yeah, Toronto probably shouldn’t qualify as Canada. The rest of Canada agrees.
Sportsnet highlights
Manny Ramirez = ManRam
home run = slobberknocker
104: here here
yeah, i’m not quite sure where slobberknocker came from
Hmm. If coming to our geekfest is an affront to your feminism, Lauren, how much do you hate stitch and pitch?
101/103: Another irony: To cross from Detroit into Windsor, ON, one must go SOUTH!
100 Really? My wife loves the Mariners shirt Milano is wearing online at the M’s team store and has asked me to order it for her. I always suspected she had bad taste.
Next week I will be in the state of Washington, but north of a famous Canadian city. Where will I be?
90: If I’m not mistaken, Dave lives on the East Coast. And he was commenting here on the blog just minutes before and after the interview, so I’m pretty sure it was by phone. In the interview, he even mentioned there not being many people where he lives with whom to talk about the Mariners.
107 I concur
98 – Unless she was actually having sex with the entire 40 man roster of the ‘04 Expos, I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t call her a “sloot.” But I only took two years of Canadian in high school so maybe the translation is inexact.
Damn Twins. 1-0 Anaheim.
Please tell me Ichiro was just bunting for a base hit, not a sacrifice (hard to tell from Gameday).
111. hanging out with bako in kelso
I’m just wondering does Ichiro ever break his bat?
did anyone see the angels scoring play . . . a vlad sacrifice lineout to 3rd ????
Error on the throw to first trying to double off Cabrera.
112 – thanks. Duh me.
I went to get the mail, and when I got back, the little bar at the top of the Channel 11 screen is gone.
I actually had to use the internet thingy to figure out what had happened! Horrors!
aw heck, none of that should stop you from watching a game and enjoying the chatter of the guys around you …
104: Funny you should mention that…on another sports blog which shall remain nameless, that would actually be a compliment compared to some of the barbs I’ve seen hurled at Toronto.
Strategy arguments aside, that was a perfect bunt.
i hate vidro with a passion, but man that was a nice bunt…too bad we have our DH bunting and not hitting 3-run home-runs…
If their catcher only throws out 5% of the runners, why waste a bunt there?
109: and that little drive from Detroit to Windsor is like driving from Manhattan a la Escape From New York, into the Garden of Eden
So if Vidro bunts, is it a bad thing or not?
This (hopefully) is how Raul gets his RBIs despite being not a very good hitter any more.
#123– crap. screwed up the blockquotes, there.
I admire the mental flexibility that knitting while watching a game entails, so I don’t find Stitch and pitch any where as annoying as Girl’s Night, where they go overboard on the girlie crap.
More Raul RBI
127: I concur — but Mac does move the runners much more than Hargrove ever did. and ……. Small ball!!!!! nice
128: This refugee from MI agrees 100%!
Sweet. Let’s keep pouring it on!
129, I had mixed feelings about that bunt, too. I hate sac bunts, especially early in a game, but I also hate Vidro GIDP. But then, Raul was up next so there was a good chance that was going to be another out, but the M’s caught a break on Raul’s weak hit.
133: For a second you had me wondering whether your note was in response to 95.
so what’s the word on this Wolfe guy? his stats looked pretty good.
Wonder if Adrian can wake up some more folks at the hotel with another funk blast?!
Gregor: sheesh man. i’m not really that familar w/ Mac
hey bako . . . do you hate vidro the person, or the ball player ? do you really put passion into your said hate ?
FYI – KJR has posted the podcast of Dave’s radio interview:
http://www.kjram.com/cc-common/podcast/single_podcast.html?podcast=groz.xml
Any one else plan on being at the turn back the clock night? maybe we can do a meet up before the game somewhere…
Man, that was really ugly, Raul.
You can also just click the listen butten to listen on your computer.
so, is this what the balls thrown by Batista early in the game like?
Baker had a nice summation of Miguel on the blog today…
This is a pleasant game to listen to. Mariners get on base, Mariners drive them in. Batista allows some runners on base, they mostly don’t score. Baseball the way I like it.
Seattle is further north than Toronto (Toronto is south of Minneapolis). In fact, the Mariners play in the northernmost city in the majors. Back in 2001, when the M’s looked unbeatable and the season was delayed a week because of 9/11, I was so looking forward to the coldest, darkest World Series in history.
Gameday had the first pitch to Reed Johnson right smack in the middle of the plate and yet it was labeled a “ball”. Is Gameday that far off?
Minnesota (which is substantially to the north of Los Angeles, which in turn is a bit to the north of Anaheim) leads the LAA 3-2 in the bottom of the 1st.
Go Twins! (For a while, at least.)
i think if we compare raul to richie we might want richie going out for adam instead, but then again, who else can catch those wild throws from beltre and betencourt
Thanks to TIVO, I just checked. It was in the middle of the plate, but it was at the armpits for height.
Good to see Broussard get the start for Sexson. Oh wait…
Dave, you interview was fantastic.
And I’ve never listened to “Griz” before, so I can’t comment on his usual stuff, but today he:
1. Gave you a really great intro.
2. Was very appreciative and treated you very respectfully. That doesn’t, as we know, always happen on sports radio.
So, Dave, fantastic job. I would listen to the DC Hour.
And, Groz, if you’re reading this, I thought you were great, too. And handled all of that intelligently and enthusiastically. So good on you, too.
Didn’t we already have this inning?
Anybody know how many runners have taken 2nd on Raul this season?
Anyone else notice Rios thought he had just hit a flyball out until he was about halfway down the line to first?
Apparently at that point he realized that Raul was playing left field.
Geez, when’s the last time they mowed? Looks like ass.
…Yes, I know it’s turf.
With Green and GS now the set up guys, is there anyone currently in the M’s pen that you want to see coming into a game in the middle innings of a close game?
Gotta say…
liked that inside pitch to Glaus. In fact like the way he seems to figure out the hitters. Except for that single Glaus just hit…
159: i’d like to see them make a decision on morrow and i like o’flaherty despite the last outing (dang i’m butchering the spellings aren’t i?)
#159
Depending on the circumstances, sure. O’Flaherty has not pitched badly.
nice
so, how about stepping out a few times on the Jays pitcher in the top half of the next inning…
wonder if Glaus will decide Batista was throwing at him, the way he decided Moyer was through the years
With the flurry of good press and recognition that S. Green has gotten recently, it would be great if he’d live up to it and not lay a rare egg.
Must have said the magic word to get run that fast.
He went around, that was a legit strike call.
A little too much running your mouth about the calls, eh John-Boy?
Holy shit that pitch was filthy.
Nice work, SG!
164
Everyone call time a billionth of a second before the wind up! Then have Mac argue!
oh, wait. you’d have to actually take a pitch or two to do the step-out routine.
Rance Mulliniks in the booth on sportsnet
A real seesaw game in Minnesota. Every time I check, the lead changes. Go Twins!
Rick Rizz is back into a rhapsody on a what a great no.2 hitter Vidro is. There’s an unintentional pun involved there, somewhere.
Please don’t bring Morrow in. Give Green the inning!
175- the toronto guys mentioned that vidro is the “ideal” number two hitter…
173: Gah, there’s a blast from the past! Wonder if they’ll bring back Ed Sprague or Kelly Gruber as analysts, too?
don’t understand the vitriol against vidro, he’s hitting pretty well and seems good on D as well….
Players who need to retire:
Raul
Sexson
Vidro
and maybe Ho-Ram
179 You’re being facetious right?
I wish someone would ask the announcers if Vidro compared favorably to Cora, in terms of both defense and skills as a “2 hitter.”
Then, just for fun, ask them to compare Vidro to WFB.
That was an ideal performance by SG. Yes, as highlighted on this site, he is RH setup guy we need. Do not trade for a substitute.
179 – April Fools was almost four months ago…
179:
Defense? You’re kidding, right? It’s hard to pick up sarcasm sometimes online, but I’m assuming that’s a joke. He’s picked up a glove six times this season. Also, for a designated hitter, saying he hits “pretty well” is incorrect.
181, 182, 184: OK. i can’t back it up right now with stats, but it seems to me he’s somewhat above average at the moment, but if we’re going to be contenders in the playoffs — i foresee a downright win in AL West or at worst the wild card — we need some serious upgrades in the bats
Oh, lord…the Rally Fries craze has spilled across the border. Wonder if he gets a side of gravy with those?
186 – Exactly. Let’s start by upgrading our designated “hitter”
186 – You may not ever be able to back that up with stats.
Raul gets a gift…. gets pulled….. i see ellison taking a 90ft stroll
186 Perhaps you haven’t checked Vidro’s slugging percentage recently?
If he was a 2B he would be okay, but he cannot play defense anymore. As a DH he is near the bottom of the league.
Dave,
Bavasi told Baker that Lowe should be coming up within days, that his velocity is not up yet but that it will take being in the bigs to get it there.
Any thoughts?
Wait… that wasn’t a joke? With the defense comment and everything?
… and now a 120ft stroll back to the bench. ouch.
Excuse me but was Ellison just thrown out by the catcher who’s only thrown out 5% of base stealers so far this year?!
Ouch. Pinch runner caught stealing – that hurts.
193, 189 – I think he means that Vidro is tied for the team lead with ZERO errors.
What the heck is going on with Ellison?
Fairly pathetic SB attempt…
So how bad does Ibanez have to be for how long before the Mariners do something about it? If he just gets worse and worse as the season goes on, do they try to force him to retire? I’m not saying he will, or that they should have already or anything, I’m just wondering what it will actually take to do something about their golden boy, if things don’t look up.
Well at least with Ellison in for Ibanez (a) our offense hasn’t gotten any worse and (b) our defense has gotten measurably better.
I understand that the announcers get paid by the Mariners and it is their job to shill for Bavasi, Lincoln etc. But how far do they think they can push this? Too many fans now have a pretty good idea of the relative value of batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, VORP, win shares etc., and it is simply too easy to call up the comparative stats of no. 2 hitters and DHs for any of this nonsense to fly. Or do Rizz and Valle and Niehaus actually believe what they are saying about Vidro? Sometimes I realy wonder if they are sincere.
RE:Vidro…obviously I need to pay more attention. Forgive me, I’m a bit new to these posts. You guys are way more researched than I. I’m one of those faithful (stupid? naieve? dumbass?) fans that believes we’re on a bit of a roll and I see good things for us this year. Granted we need bats, serious bats, but we bring someone in, someone has to go … so who’s it going to be. When, i said when, adam comes up, who’s going to leave?
Are you smarter than a fifth grader?
T or F: Raul Ibanez > Adam Jones
197: Yeah, but when he’s only played like two games in the field this year because his range is for crap these days, I wonder if that really counts?
so shout it out. what’s our ideal line up… leave the bullpen as it is… what’s your line up and where we putting them … lets stick to current and viable possibilities
Too many fans now have a pretty good idea of the relative value of batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, VORP, win shares etc.
I really wish that were true, but I still think that BA, RBIs, wins, etc. are going to be the dominant baseball stats of the mainstream baseball fan for a while. I don’t think the majority of average fans are too interested in adapting to new metrics, at least right now. It’s going to take a while. That’s my sad, pessimistic two cents.
205 – “range” should be in quotation marks
203 – No problem. Vidro is easily to replace, and Raul should not be playing the outfield, so making room for Jones couldn’t be easier.
Enjoy the site. There are some particularly smart people here. Not me, but here.
McLaren seems less partial to WFB than previous managers. Or more partial to Ellison than Hargrove was.
Great Reistma on the mound. Merry Christmas Blue Jays!
I hear so many people complain about Vidro. Is there anyone that can do a comparison vs other DH’s in the AL and post it here?
Yay…. Here comes Reitsma. I can’t believe it, he gave up a base hit. Two runs later, and the game is going to be tied….
204 According to a DMZ comment from last year, “He’s the least sincere broadcaster I’ve ever been exposed to for any length of time.”
Not sure how to do the links but it is the 7-25-06 “Random notes” post.
206 – (just fyi, line-up conjecture and “rosterbation” is a no-no. Individual scenario questions = fine, but as a rule, avoid.)
Sorry, should have explained that DMZ was referring to Rick Rizzs.
206 – make vidro eat a year-old Ichiroll, wait five minutes, place on DL, then move Raul to DH and Jones to LF. Then repeat process with Raul.
reitsma is the bullpen version on vidro…
Just joining the game, good to see a DP!
This ump doesn’t like Reitsma much — of course, I don’t either.
218 – who are you trying to insult? rim shot…
RussM: I thought this was a friendly discussion…. its not always easy as who’s younger, who’s got a better average, etc. The unfortunate truth is there are contract issues, trade clauses, the sentimental value, who’s getting paid what … blah… involved in moving players. Its not as easy as sending Adam a ticket and having him come tryout. especially this month.
I admitted my lack of knowledge in these things. I’ve been reading this post for awhile, now I just got fired up enough to post….
#206
My lineup: Ichiro CF
Jones LF
Johjima C
Guillen RF
Beltre 3B
Ibanez DH
Sexson (against LH) Broussard (against RH) 1b
Lopez 2b
Betancourt SS
I am perfectly willing to tinker with this. There are times when it might be right to sub Broussard for Guillen, or Vidro for Ibanzez (Raul just cannot hit a lefty and Guillen has real trouble with righties. Of course, Sexson has trouble with everybody, but what are you gonna do?)
221- both…
Nwtrev, Didn’t mean to come off as rude. Sorry. But even though Vidro is making six mil for the next two years, the M’s are going to have to suck it up and just call up Jones and play him. It really is that simple.
212- http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=basic_batting&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=ops&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=1&pos_filter%5B%5D=10&Submit=Submit
go for it, BTW I really need to figure a way to shorten that
210 – That is an excellent point and just made me a fraction happier than I was before I read it.
216 – I scrolled up to see who you meant, couldn’t find it, and I literally shrugged and said to myself, “Well, has to re Rizzs.” And moved on.
#222. uh, oh….
222 Welcome to the world of USSMariner then!
So, is that it for the Jays? Or is Brian Roberts going in as a defensive substitution?
208: My mistake…I’d forgotten Turbo moves SOOOO slowly in the field these days that short right would look like a cattle ranch by comparison.
ok. apparently i don’t know what i’m doing or talking about. let me go read the posting guidelines and brush up on some stats.
The ideal lineup was posted by Dave a while ago when he talked about the desirablity of bringing up Jones and platooning for left/right splits.
Sorry, did not realize I should not have responded to the request for a lineup, retracting.
3 points above the Sexdoza line, congrats you are still not good at hitting a baseball.
In other news, every time the Yankees get a little uppity with winning 3 of 4 from
231 – You just earned 1000 points in my book. look forward to discussing with you.
nwtrev CONFORM!!! DAMNIT!!! JUST CONFORM!!!
226- Dear God, I didn’t realize Huff was having that poor a season.
Sexdoza line. Funny!!!!
#235 (continued)….sub-.500 teams like the Blue Jays and the D-Rays and KC, one of them rises up and whacks the Yankees into submission with a drubbing like this one tonight: 10-0 D-Rays in the bottom of the 7th at Yankee Stadium. Good, keep them away from the Mariners in the WC standings…
Kenji DP are starting to get to me. Thats 14, trailing only the legendary Vidro by 1.
Putz Time! This is fun! I feel like I am 23 again.
Adding that DP, this must be one of Kenji’s worst games at the plate.
nice article bashing Dave Samson
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-bible-david-samson-vs-natural-selection/
Putz time in Canada…
I hope we don’t see Reistma on mound again for a long time unless the M’s are down by like 20 runs, but never again when they have 2 run lead.
10-0 Rays in the Bronx? Start spreadin’ da news!
I am new to this blog – hello everybody from Chicago.
There seems to be a lot of SABR-metric talent here – is the general consensus of you smart guys that the M’s are merely an average team getting lucky, or is there a good statistical explanation for their success this year? Obviously their ERA and runs per game are both very average…
I love this Survivorman show.
248- Newbie said ERA, some one get the hot poker and tell him to read the Evaluating Pitcher Talent.
248 – The reason we win is on the mound right now.
Newsless – Cubs or White Sox???
Boy Beltre got a baaad jump on that one.
Hey,Dave Sims! The reason they aren’t playing AC/DC is because you are in Toronto dumb ass.
Angels vs. Minnesota 5-7 (Top 6th)
Detroit vs. Royals 2-6 (Bot 8th)
Cleveland vs. Texas 0-0 (Bot 4th)
This could be a big day
Matt Stairs: Professional Hitter
Putz seems to have regained control of his splitter.
JJ not hitting his locations tonight
Let’s buckle up for this one folks…
I grew up in Tacoma – I’m an M’s guy. But if you gotta chose a Chicago team, the Sox have a much more knowledgable fan base. On the other side, Wrigley is a great old place to watch a baseball game…
254 lol Did he really ask that?
248 Hey Newsless – Don’t know how many Chicago-land people are here, but I live in South Bend and go to Chicago for culture and go-kart driving (you know what I mean).
A large part of the explanation may be that the M’s tend to lose a lot of blow outs but win alot of the non-blow-out games. Since the blow outs are mostly due to a couple of pitchers, the RS/RA is a bit skewed.
Cool. JJ does it again. This was fun and educational. I look forward to the game tomorrow. I’d still like to see an online chat going for discussing the game versus posting comments.. I’ll even set it up.
Min 7 LAA 5
Go Twins
WOO-HOO, PUTZIE!!!
WHEW!!!!!!!!!
DaveN knows how to milk the drama.
Whew… That was close.
PUTZ!!!!!!!! 260 – good answer!
Wow…I’ll take it! See you all tomorrow morning.
I wear JJ Putz pajamas to bed.
That raised the blood pressure more than any other Putz save I can recall this year … Stairs nearly took him out.
261- He commented something similar to ” Why are they playing Ozzy and Black Sabbath and not AC/DC. JJ likes AC/DC. Yep, that’s exactly what you want to do if you are Toronto. Play JJ’s get hyped up music.
262: I would expect the couple of pitchers to either get pulled or get better, removing that effect over time…so are the M’s as good as their record, as good as their RS/RA, or somewhere in the middle.
Sunday: Halladay vs. King Felix–must see TV
nwtrev – email Dave or DMZ about the chat thing.
That fly ball out scared me off the bat. Then as it fell into Ichiro’s glove, I remembered it was Matt Stairs.
Good game. Hang on, Twinkies!
270: Funniest comment of the night. Is it a onesie?
Putz PJs could be pink with booties and they would still ROCK!
Raul might not have got to that ball.
276,
Except Ellison caught it.
nwtrev – A few fellas and myself have had #mariners on EFNet (IRC) going for like 7 years or so now. It’s a small group, but your more than welcome to join us.
I could see why USSM may not want to sponsor a chat. Large chat rooms/IRC channels can get out of hand. But, I’d be more than happy to have USSM folks join us.
Hopefully this is not considered an inappropriate plug.
ramirez scratched on sunday ? felix in ?
280 (David*) – Eh, skinny dude with high socks. Same difference.
#282
Because of the off day, Sunday would be Felix’s regular start in terms of rest. So they are pitching him and sending out Ramirez on the next game. Like the sense of drama.
I don’t know how Batista is doing it but he’s seems to be getting the job done.
The M’s are up to number 6 on the insignificant ESPN Power Rankings. I wonder how they compute these.
277- Yes it is, I stitch in marks to count his saves.
284 smart move, but I’m not sure I like the idea of Horacio pitching in Texas vs Toronto.
Putz’s ERA goes down to .78…if the M’s stay in the playoff hunt until the end, and J.J. keeps this up, he has to enter the Cy Young discussion at some point.
#288
I am not sure whether it is smart or not, I just like the idea of Felix vs. Halladay: the kind of pitching matchup that makes finding a bar with a good TV screen and good beer worth while.
273 I’ve never done the research to know for sure, but in fact some of those pitchers have gotten better (Weaver), and others have been pulled and replaced by other bad pitchers.
Ryan Feierabend alone is responsible to two games the M’s lost by more than a dozen runs – a 16-1 slap down on 6/22, and then a 17-3 punch in the gut two starts later on 7/3. Take those two games out and the M’s RS/RA is a lot different, going from 460/447 to 456/414. Then throw out some of those early Weaver starts, and you begin to see how much precision is lost with a stat that lumps so much together.
290 Agreed
291-
But every team goes through those aberrations, and you’ll see that over the course of 162 games they all balance out.
293 That isn’t true. Not every team has AAAA or AAA starters pitching every fifth day. It is this that produces the disproportionate number of blow-outs.
RS/RA is a very crude tool.
But every team goes through those aberrations, and you’ll see that over the course of 162 games they all balance out.
Except that the M’s have a truly horrible back-end of the rotation. The RA when anyone not named Felix, Washburn or Batista starts goes up by two full runs. They’ve already tried to fix it (Baek, Feierabend), but the sad fact is, they only have three reliable above-replacement-level major league pitchers.
294-
Sure they do. You’re going to tell me that every team doesn’t have a suspect fifth starter? How many teams have even 3 good starters?
Being so close to the game, we know about Feireband’s blowups…but the truh is most, if not all, teams have them.
254, 272-
Actually I just double checked Tivo and there was no dumbassery involved, Sims said “interesting that they’re playing Ozzy/Black Sabbath… J.J. of course is partial to AC/DC.” He was just making the observation that it was two metal fans facing each other, not to make any connection that the Jays were playing the wrong song for Putz.
293 To prove my point consider the following rotation:
Johan Santana
Felix Hernandez
Josh Peavy
John Beckett
Me
Suppose that while the rest of the team posts something like a 3.1 ERA, giving up a total of 280 runs in 812 IP, I post an ERA of 1,569.2 by giving up 17,436 runs in 100 IP. Suppose that the lineup was the same as the current M’s lineup, projected over a full season. Our RS/RA would be (ignoring the relievers for a moment) 800/17716.
But we can only lose, at most, one game for each of my starts. Supposing the team wins 75% of the other games and loses 100% of my games, we have a record of 98-64 despite our lousy RS/RA we would in fact be favorites for the World Series and, since fifth starters would not be pitching in the playoffs, the team would probably have a great shot.
This is an extreme example, but the same principles apply to the M’s. Their fifth starters have frequently been awful but they can only lose at most one game for each start by the fifth starter.
298-
No one is disputing that the backend of the rotation is significantly weaker than the front. What I am disputing is the fact that every team faces this problem – it’s not just the M’s who have 2 significantly worse pitchers in the 4 and 5 hole than 1-3. The RS/RA predicter is a very good statistic to predict probable wins and losses. No one is professing it to be perfect, but over the course of the season, it does indeed even out.
A game out of each race. Very nice.
2 cheers for the Twins!!! Yipppeeee!!!
298- I don’t think Josh Peavy and John Beckett are very good pitcher, IMO.
I think that one of the points that Dave likes to make over and over is that you can’t use a single stat to tell the whole story. You can skew the RS/RA stat using your extreme example as much as you want, and I know what you are trying to say, but I don’t think the M’s are the only team that sees the effects that you are presenting.
In other words, the M’s aren’t the only team that has a bad 5th pitcher and therefore aren’t the only team that experiences your RS/RA example. Besides, even your hypothetical rotation has the sucky brothers of good pitchers Jake and Josh.
299 My point is two-fold: (1) RS/RA may or may not be usually reliable, but it has flaws that can cause it to be wildly incorrect. This is what my imaginary rotation showed. It is entirely possible for RS/RA to not only be a little wrong, but completely broken.
Therefore it follows that RS/RA is only useful for the most part, at best; it won’t be useful to the extent that you have a talent divide between your best and worst pitchers. And besides, as Dave never tires of pointing out, results-based analysis is inferior to other methods.
(2) My second point is that the M’s have had some very terrible pitchers and some very terrible games. You challenge whether they are worse than other teams’ bad pitchers and bad games. It is hard to know how to check this out easily, but someone could find out the answer if they had the time. Unfortunately…I’m going to sleep.
So someone else will have to do the work.
302 303 Yeah I meant to fix those
304-
But your example has two flaws: (1) the discrepancy between starters 1-4 and 5 never happens, and (2) you are looking at just one team, instead of looking at every team having a drastic falloff to the #5 starter.
You are looking at 2 games out of 162.
I understand what you’re saying, but in the grand scheme of things, RS/RA is a very good predictor of win/loss.
No one is disputing that the backend of the rotation is significantly weaker than the front. What I am disputing is the fact that every team faces this problem – it’s not just the M’s who have 2 significantly worse pitchers in the 4 and 5 hole than 1-3. The RS/RA predicter is a very good statistic to predict probable wins and losses. No one is professing it to be perfect, but over the course of the season, it does indeed even out
Games started by pitchers with ERA+ below 66:
Mariners: 19
Angels: 0
Tigers: 0
Indians: 12
Games started by pitchers with ERA+ below 75:
Mariners: 39
Angels: 34
Tigers: 0
Indians: 23
So, yeah, the Angels have two shaky spots, but not as shaky as the M’s…
Nwtrev: If you’re still on here, I just wanted to say “welcome”. Since I used to be one of those fans myself who would look at a guy’s average and say, “Gee, he’s hitting .275, that’s not too bad, is it?” without really looking at some of his other numbers, or say, what he’s doing or not doing in a particular situation, I didn’t think it was entirely out of the blue to ask that question about Vidro — it’s just that most of us on here have been razzing him all season long out of frustration over the fact that: 1) for a DH, we’ve expected a little more power from that position; 2) the number of GIDP’s he’s had (equivalent to if not MORE than his number of extra base hits, though he has been hitting one or two doubles of late) is alarming, especially for a guy batting in the #2 hole; & 3) his defense, which at one point years ago WAS above-average (he won a Gold Glove one season for the Expos), has sadly declined on account of knee injuries to the point that it’s of very little value these days. I’m sure some other regulars could probably add a few things that I’ve missed, but those are three of the main sticking points.
I’m sorry if you felt you got a little bit of a “baptism by fire,” so to speak. I was a frequent reader also who hasn’t been on here very long, either. Admittedly, I’m probably not the world’s biggest stats junkie…and I think I may have felt a bit intimidated at first to jump on here myself. But I’ve found that though I may not always agree with other people’s observations, I can often learn things about the game on here that I maybe wasn’t aware of.
Anyway, sorry if I’ve bored you with the long post, but again, welcome aboard!
P.S.: BTW, I noticed we were volleying that Detroit-Windsor thing back and forth. Are you from Michigan originally, also? Just curious. -S
I wouldn’t normally choose it, but I listened to the post-game report with Hudler (sp?) and Valle. The content of the show made me realize why I normally wouldn’t choose it.
Seriously, anyone connected to this team operates on the “Talking Points” school of public relations, and its freaking maddening.
Here are the talking points that I heard today:
1) Vidro is a good #2 hitter (Hudler, Valle, Rizzs, and some others…see a pattern?)
2) Richie will turn it around, and trading for someone to replace him is not the answer (say hello, Mr. Strawman!)
3) Super duper Veteran effect ™ will be upset, etc. when you bring up new guys (Valle, Nelson, Krueger)
Frankly, I’ve had enough. I like winning, and I know the team is winning, but this bamboozle-ment is not intellectually honest…and its crazy.
Bedard with 9K, 0 H through 5 innings (69 pitches)
Texas fighting back in the final inning!
Hrm.
If taking two games out of the stat introduces wild swings, perhaps you’re trying to make it do too much. Wide variance makes it hard to see “true” levels of talent…
Huytler. and FWIW, that may be the worst post-game combo that KOMO fields; mon-thur it will be Tom Glasgow with either Valle, Norm Charlton or Bill Haselman and the always reliable Shannon Drayer.
313: I agree…Tom H. is SUCH a freaking front-office Kool-Aid drinker, it’s not funny! He really ought to stick to doing the PA announcements at the Safe, which is something he’s okay at.
Shannon Drayer is, by far, the hardest working and most professional member of that bunch. She’s certainly come a long way from the days when she had to put up with Mitch Levy’s sexist BS on KJR!
260- I live in Chicago…Concerning Baseball in Chicago, if you want to watch baseball with real baseball fan’s you head to the Southside to watch the Sox. I was there one time and the fan’s were calling Edgar a busboy and asking him to bus there table and get them some more water. Sick, but funny in a typical Southside way. the stadium was lucky to be 1/3 full in those days, and if you bought some Hormel hot dogs you could go two for one and get great seats. nothing to do after the game around the stadium but jump on the train immediately and get home safely.
If you want to feel an incredible tingle when you walk into a vintage park, then sit surounded by the cream of Midwest young womanhood in halter tops on a sunny day you head to Wrigley. Of the 40,000 in attendance only 5,000 are watching the game, and not each other. You can only get a ticket from a scalper who will charge you around $100 for a bleacher seat. Before and after the game you are smack dab in the middle of one of the worlds greatest party spots with 100’s of bars to choose from in a very safe area of the Windy City.
For some reason I choose Wrigley unles the M’s are in town.
315: That reminds me…a few years back, I was listening to a game from Commisk/Cellular in which the Sox were absolutely handing us our rear end on a platter. Anyway, during a pregnant pause by Neihaus, you could ACTUALLY hear some drunken lout in the background yelling, “Hey everybody…did you see the Cubs lost today?!” — followed by a chorus of “HOORAY!”
Guess it was one of those “had to be there” moments, but still too funny!
Waybackwhen: Dave, I think you missed my point. My feminism would be offended at the fact that sans real knowledge, I’d just have to sit around like, well, a token chick.
Stitch n pitch doesn’t really bug me.
MSB: are you going to one of these minor-league-whosit-whatsits?
Oh yeah.. YAY for the win and the Angels’ loss! Woohoo!
Actually goined a game on the An-hells tonight…WOW.
Stars must be alignin’!
Also, forgot how to spell GAINED!…
320 – Looks fine if you’re from Australia
309: No joke on the talking points. I kept thinking that they were reading from a script. It felt like they knew fully well what’s being said on the internet and were waging a PR campaign to keep casual fans at bay.
My other thought was that they are protecting the veterans/team interests in order to keep their relationship positive with the veteran players. My favorite quote, “If they bring someone new in before the deadline, it better be a proven player otherwise it will upset the team chemistry.” I forget who said this, but it was a direct AJ counterpoint.
Perhaps that’s too sinister… but objective analysis really seemed lacking.
From the AP recap:
Batista blamed his wildness on dehydration, saying he hasn’t felt well since the Mariners flew into Toronto on Thursday.
“You definitely know you’re in trouble when your pitching coach comes out and says, ‘You’ve got to throw your changeup harder,” Batista said. “I go, ‘My changeup? That was my fastball.”
that’s quite funny. At least he has a sense of humor about it. He’s lucky he didn’t get torched.
Damn.
I think that’s made me a Batista fan for life.
Holy cow we are lucky Bedard didn’t start.
The media makes it act like Bedard came outta nowhere this year. For a good 3-4 months stretch last year, he was amongst the best in baseball.
Him getting that stiff neck and not facing us was flat out awesome.
3) Super duper Veteran effect ™ will be upset, etc. when you bring up new guys (Valle, Nelson, Krueger)
I have this feeling that McLaren probably knows what he should do, but is afraid to do it because the team was winning when he took over. If he makes some moves, and then through random variation the team goes into a slump, he knows he will be blamed. So it is safer for him to do nothing.
Either that or he’s also been drinking the aging veteran kool aid.
(I make it a point to ignore Krueger on the pregame shows. It must be nice to have a job where all you have to do is slick back your hair, sit in a chair for a half hour, and make stuff up. And, no one ever calls you on it or asks for any evidence.)
My god, Krueger IS looking like Micheal Corrleone these days, isn’t he?!
316- There are plenty of you had to be there moments, and comments in both Chicago ballparks. The fans are pretty damn funny. I prefer Safeco from a comfort and aesthestic point of view, but even though Seattle is now a true baseball town, there is a little more history and tradition back East which makes it interesting when you attend.
Actually, Toronto is south of Seattle.
I want to, but as I won’t know if I can until the end of next week, I may be out of luck this time …
having run into Krueger a couple of times during day events, his hair always looks like that.
are we still about toronto south of seattle. mapquest it. Seattle is the northern most MLB city
oh crap. i’m a jackass. toronto IS south of seattle
creepers… i shouldn’t drink vodka sodas during Ms day games