Adjust Or Fiddle
The M’s have now lost 5 games in a row, wasted a great opportunity to make up ground in the standings, and have dug themselves another hole that will take a lot of work to get out of. The season isn’t over, and losing four one-run games in five days doesn’t mean that this team is a huge failure. They’d won more than their fair share of squeakers during the first half, and regression to the mean said they were going to lose some.
However, this five game losing streak should be enough to break the hold of the myths that have frozen this team from making the necessary adjustments. This team doesn’t “just know how to win” any more than any other baseball team does. They aren’t really a .580 ballclub, even if they had a .580 winning percentage last week. This isn’t a team that qualifies for the If-It-Aint-Broke-Don’t-Fix-It exception to roster maintenance. This team has some issues that need to be addressed if they’re going to make a playoff run. They’re not a secret to anyone. They also can no longer be ignored.
The Mariners have a choice – they can continue to hope a solid but flawed team can overcome four better baseball clubs and sneak into the playoffs, or they can make the obvious internal moves that everyone on the planet knows would increase their chances of winning baseball games.
Promote Adam Jones and give him the everyday left field job. Let Jose Vidro and Raul Ibanez fight over the DH at-bats (Raul should never again face a lefty in any close game), and when Raul plays, hit him no higher than 6th. Play Ben Broussard at first base against right-handers more often. Show some willingness to use Sean Green and George Sherrill as more than situational guys against same-handed hitters, extending the high leverage innings into the hands of the team’s best relievers. Stick Chris Reitsma, the worst reliever on the team, as far from close games as possible. Or, heck, just admit that was a mistake, call up Kam Mickolio to take his place, and move on.
This team has talent, and it can still make the playoffs. But it won’t as currently constructed. You can adjust, or you can fiddle while Safeco burns. It’s up to you.
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I was blown away when Reitsma showed up when we so desperately needed to win. This team needs to change or they’ll simply fade away.
Um Bavasi’s in charge right? Let the burning commence.
Someone from the M’s organization please read this. This team plays at a disadvantage every night our starting left fielder is in AAA.
I hope that Bavasi doesn’t panic and do something stupid like trade for another over the hill veteran with a great club house presence….Oh I forgot, we already have our share of those.
I don’t care for my boss much on a personal level. However, I get a profit sharing check every quarter due to his top notch management of our company. As long as Bill and Mac make decisions that please the foot soldiers, there will be no profit sharing(playoff money) for the workers.
I think the deeper frustration comes with losing by 1 run here, 2 runs there this season — this year they aren’t getting blown out (coughHoRamcough) for the most part, but as Dave says, just fiddling away games they should be winning.
Is it me or did Mac sound like he was about to cry in that post-game interview on KOMO?
The Mariners waste an opportunity everytime they get close to first place. It happened last year and it will happen again this year, the might A’s will be passing us soon within the next few weeks.
I agree with the need for lineup order changes and bringing AJones up, but this is a streaky hitting team — with or without the above moves. the moves may reduce some of the team hitting woes, but not many. btw: How are they doing with walks recently anyway?
I said it before and I’ll said it again the M’s must do the following or surrender any idea of a shot at the playoffs never mind making them:
1)DFA the following:
P Chris Reitsma
OF Ellison
SP Ramirez
2)Bench the following:
DH Vidro
LF Ibanez
let these two fight over DH/PH ABs.Keep Ibanez away from LHPers only RHPers.
3)Platoon the following:
Broussard and Sexson at 1stB with Broussard getting 60% of remaining starts til Sexson gets his swing back with proof.
4)Callup the following:
OF Adam Jones
OF Wlad Balenien
INF Nick Green
RP Mateo
5)When off the DL
SP Baek in place of Ramirez
SP Huber in place of Reitsma
9..at what point can we just DFA Ibanez too?? Let the kids play.
Nick Green stinks. Julio Mateo and Jon Huber won’t help this team.
I agree with everything Dave says. Bearman: I agree with most of what you’re saying too, but Mateo??? His personal issues aside, he’s just a lousy pitcher, not much better than Reitsma.
It’s amazing how quickly this team goes from brimming with confidence to deer in the headlights. It’s clear, after reading various comments from Bill Bavasi, that he believes that what he’s doing with this team is right and that amateurs like me don’t know what we’re talking about. I won’t argue with that, but I can’t believe that he can’t see something is wrong with this team after watching how quickly the momentum this team had has been lost. This team is just a few losses away from completely blowing any realistic chance they have at reaching the playoffs.
Any chance Jones could play SS again?
Dave, do you see any hope at all for big improvements from Sexson and Ibañez (at least against righties, in Ibañez’s case)? Or do you think they really are as done as they look?
Independently of that question, what do you think it will actually take for the Mariners to come to that conclusion (however true or false it may be)? What are they likely to do if they do begin to believe that the truth is that neither Sexson nor Ibañez can hit anymore?
ya know Ibanez really can’t hit RHP either: .265/.331/.442
call me crazy but i actually don’t mind having turbo batting 2nd, he of the .370 OBP. now getting javier vazquez to drop his no-trade clause would be awesome, hm how about balentine + a decent pitcher.
You knew from the M’s pythagorean for the first half (IIRC, they shoulda been around .525) that they might have something like this coming. Need to play better (or, you know, have better players) in the second than the first in order to fight mean-regression and have September matter. Even when we were at .580, this was a lumpy, oddly constructed team.
Sounds like a good time for that rosterbation thread!
I may have missed this discussion in the game thread, but has anyone been as apalled by the baserunning gaffes as I have? Errors are one thing – mistakes on the bases are another.
I’m not a huge “energy” and “spark” guy, but this team does need a kick in the pants…
If I have too…..
[deleted, you don't]
1 – We knew that Reitsma was going to be in for the 8th as soon as he burned Sherrill as a LOOGY in the 7th. I can’t imagine them ever letting Sherrill go 1 1/3 these days.
I think Sherrill needs to be ambidextrous to get the love he deserves from management.
Put Ibanez on the DL with some type of fake injury to call up Jones. Then deal with Ibanez or DFA Ellison when Ibanez comes back. I like Dave’s idea to send Morrow down and bring up Mickolio. I don’t see that Morrow is doing anything right now that Huber or Mickolio couldn’t do.
I honestly just don’t get it, Dave. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t make these moves. They would immediately improve.
Is it folly? Is it hubris?
Is it too hard for them to have that talk with the veterans?
Why would they even consider going to Reitsma in a tied game in the 8th?
Why would they PINCH HIT Raul against a lefty? Are they insane? It wasn’t even suck it up, leave him in, right? They actually brought him off the bench.
All craziness.
On top of everything else, this attitude of “not broke, no fix” doesn’t really apply, since staying the same, even without regression… doesn’t make the playoffs! You are BEHIND, Bill. You have to get better or you stay home. Treading water is a losing game.
On the KOMO postgame show, Dreyer rolled tape of Raul in a state of total denial about players not being able to hit.
Followed up with a caller saying he was getting a sense of deja vu watching Richie and Raul and recalling the swift, precipitous declines of John Olerud and Brett Boone. Caller says that R & R are done and it’s time to bring up the kids.
Valle jumps in with vehement denials that they’re done “they’ve got several good years left in them.”
Note to self: Valle is not a good judge of baseball talent.
25 – Not only that, but in order to defend him, Valle stated that “Raul is NOT done”, and used his RBI total as evidence. He then said that if Raul had 20 RBI’s at this point in the season we could declare him done.
I wonder how many RBI’s a replacement level hitter would have batting third every day with two guys OBP’ing .380 combined in front of him?
I’m not sure we should expect the analysts on either Fox or KOMO radio to bash Raul or Sexson.
Wasn’t it the last time we had a glimmer of playoff hope that a 4-game, late summer sweep in Arlington killed us? Feels similar right now. GIVE US AJ!!
I just think the guys who broadcast for KOMO get chummy with they players and have a mandate to be upbeat about the team. I never expect anything but blatant homerism from whichever station broadcasts the games. It’s guys like Kreuger that tick me off. There’s a guy who should have some objectivity.
27 – Well, we should expect it.
I don’t, but we should.
You know, the Mariners as an organization seem to spend much more energy making sure everyone has the same talking points about the quality of the team… than on actually, you know, improving the team.
Um, Bearman, your plan DFA’s three guys and calls up six. While I sympathize with the frustration, I don’t think the league will let us have a 28 man roster before September.
I agree with the need for lineup order changes and bringing AJones up, but this is a streaky hitting team — with or without the above moves. the moves may reduce some of the team hitting woes, but not many.
The moves Dave suggests won’t solve all our problems, won’t make the M’s the best team in the AL and won’t guarantee a playoff berth. But they’ll make the team better, and they’re in a pennant race for cryin’ out loud. Why they don’t pull the trigger is beyond me. Institutional inertia.
I wasn’t happy with Mac’s handling of the games today. Sherrill is not a LOOGY! He has the best OPS Against vs RH of anyone in the bullpen not named Joseph Jason. OPS a little too cutting edge for you? Fine, righties are batting .209 against him. They are hitting .308 against Reitsma. Squat or Quant, Sherrill can get out righties, and he can probably pitch more than 1/3 of an inning, especially in a tie game during a four-game losing streak in the middle of a pennant race when it would be really nice to win a game.
Ah, why bother?
That’s the thing…the “Crafty Left-Hander” thinks he is objectively critical; he is the ultimate chump. Still, the whole lot are a bunch of turd-polishing shills…not just the FSN staff. It chaps my ass to hear them defend an off-line, rainbow throw to home plate from left field because the guy throwing it is M4L, or any other display of their Disney-esque approach to objectivity. Some of us fans want to see the team WIN! You wanna honor Raul AND the fans? Then make him “vice-chairman” of the club and DH him against RH pitching occasionally, and let him cut the ribbon on the Adam Jones era.
29 – While I agree with what we can expect, it always seems to me a real shame. Because it really invalidates pretty much anything they have to say.
All I ever think is “Vin Scully wouldn’t play me like that.”
I know it’s just baseball, and just toeing the company line, but I really do think it goes to a much larger point about our society’s willingness to be insincere and intellectually dishonest. It’s become totally, entirely expected. And in turn accepted.
Dave, specifically, may believe much of what he is saying, but the larger point remains.
And to me this is not innocent. When we allow it with baseball and liquid detergent, we start to allow it with… I’ll leave it at more critical issues.
At any rate, the Mariner’s message is showing up too frequently and consistently to be genuine.
29: You’re forgetting the Kreuger is an idiot. Pat Riley haircut aside, the guy knows very little.
Maybe the Mariners will understand with[url="http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/9315/adamjonesmissingposterpn7.jpg"]
the help of visual aids.[/URL]
Dark complexion…haha. Well said.
I think you can just post the link without html though.
Internet > Me
Adam Jones Missing Poster
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/9315/adamjonesmissingposterpn7.jpg
#32: Well said smb. It’s the same feeling I have. It seems to me like it’s an orginazation thing from the FO down to the manager to not bench or limit the playing time of someone like Raul because somehow most fans watching or attending Mariner games would be upset if their “favorite” Mariner isn’t playing.
Well, mea culpa. I wouldn’t expect much better…it’s a business and there is no incentive to smart-up the commentary when 90% of the viewers/listeners think Raul is the best LF’er since Greg Briley. God love the franchise, but Mariners fans on the whole are baseball ignorant. The passion is there when we’re winning, but it’s not always backed by knowledge and it disappears a lot when we lose. Hence the Felix bashing we see all the time. Still, the paid commentary is a near-constant affront to informed Mariner fan-dom.
So have we decided that Morrow is major league ready? His last couple games were good and he looked great today, but I’d still prefer to send him down and work on his control and his secondary pitches.
Oh, Sports on a Schtick, that was hilarious.
Not to nitpick Dave, but there are atleast 5 teams currently better IMO…LAA, BoSox, Cleve, Detroit and…the Yankees, since they have basically caught us…I would even consider adding the Twins to the list if they get a bat or 2 before the deadline
While I still do not trust Bavasi as GM, the biggest issue today was managing. Mac was lost in game 1 – especially in the 9th…BUT Mac missed a MAJOR opportunity in game 2 to send this team a message it desparately needed to hear…When Yuni got picked off of 2nd base in the 5th…you chew him out, and then you bench him for the rest of the game. This team is sleep walking currently, and it is Mac’s job to wake them up.
I realize that Yuni is basically our only SS, and I don’t ever want to see Willie playing any position, BUT Mac MUST deliver a message to these veterans because the VETERANS are not responding to Mac.
I do agree that Bavasi COULD send a similar message by making changes to the 25 man roster, but I’m not holding my breathe for that yet.
Mac, you had a golden opportunity, and you blew it.
#40: I’d like to send him down so he can become our #5 starter next year.
Message-sending is meaningless. It’s exactly the kind of thing — like throwing a temper-tantrum — that fans want managers to do because the fans are angry and frustrated and want the manager to do something visible. Yuni knows he fucked up, and so does everyone else; you don’t need to bench him to educate anyone.
Now that we’re losing, I’ll bet we can’t being up Jones now to help the team win because “you can’t put that kind of pressure on a kid.” There’s always an excuse to not do what needs to be done.
I doubt Bavasi thinks this is severely flawed team. He put the team together convinced it could contend. Since it has been contending, he’s vindicated. He’s not going to make any “panic moves”.
In my view, Dave is spot on about the offense and the bullpen. There is quite a bit that can likely be accomplished by promoting Jones and Mickolio and then modifying how personnel are used.
That said, IMHO, this team also needs another legitimate starter. I don’t want to rosterbate but rather ask some philosophical questions. Is this a big enough problem to be a priority and if so, is there really anything that can be done about it? The Ms have several chips in Wlad and Clement who aren’t untouchable and perhaps one that is in Triunfel. Is it wise to try and flip some chips at a bottom feeder for an arm like Ian Snell whose risky but young with upside and trending in the right direction (I’m assuming that if a starter would even be available on a feeder like the Bucs one like Gorzelanny wouldn’t be)?
In the grand scheme of things what is Wlad, Clement and Triunfel worth the the Ms and to the rest of the league?
The M’s FO is full of people who are mediocre at baseball but good at making money.
I’ll bet $100 that the only reason they will not demote Raul is because of the marketing effort they put into him. And damn it, Raul Ibanez Bobble Head Night (August 17th!) is more important that some kid in AAA! Don’t forget about Raul Ibanez Magnet Night on September 27th either!!
This logic is SO in line with the people running Mariners that I have no doubt in my mind that it’s true. And for this very reason, I bet we don’t see Adam Jones until he’s a September call up. And even then, we’ll watch as he comically watches Raul from the bench most of the time.
I wish someone in the media would sit down with Bill (pardon me, William) and get a straight answer at some point in the Q&A why Jones is still down in Tacoma. It just doesn’t make sense – at all.
9 (Bearman) – I have no idea what your post said after I read the name “Mateo.” I can’t bring myself to reading anything that suggests he would help this team. Sorry.
10 (Daveblev) I wouldn’t DFA Ibanez. There has to be something of a hitter left in there against righties. He’d be a good platoon option. It’s insane the drop off he’s had this year.
35 (Sports on a Schtick) – Think we’d get arrested or something if we posted those all over Safeco walls before a game, or handed them out on the sidewalks?
Dave, someone had asked if AJ could go back to SS. I have some buddies suggesting that, too. Your thoughts? I personally don’t think it’s a good idea. I don’t know how to compare the defense of a shortstop to that of a left fielder (obviously one is harder, so how do you compare apples to oranges?), but the argument I keep hearing is that Yuni’s bat and glove are hurting us more than Raul’s.
Dave,
I know we’re still very much in the middle of a pennat race right now, but in all honesty wouldn’t it make some sense to pull a Chicago White Sox and become sellers right now instead of buyers?
I know I’ll probably get persectued for this thought, but I don’t realisticly feel this team has a prayer even if it somehow pulled a miracle and made it into the playoffs. Which I’d put at less than 10 percent of happening.
Of course, outside of Beltre I’m not sure there’s a veteran worth dealing… and, we’re probably a couple years away from being able to replace him with anybody currently in the system. Your thoughts?
Carson,
It’s not insane. That’s why Dave would make a better GM than Bavasi. He was disappointed with the years that Raul got in his extension, correctly predicting that he wouldn’t be worth the money the entire contract. I don’t recall if he said it, but I’d bet money that Dave also said that the contract would additionally hold someone good from coming up from Tacoma.
As a reader of this website for several years now, I’m always shocked at how often Dave is on the money in his predictions. He predicts how bad this team will do. They win, but without good reason. Hopefully he’s wrong and the team hasn’t started to even things out to the point where the wins and losses start to resemble the numbers the starters on the rotation are putting up. I was really looking forward to playoff caliber baseball come September, but I don’t see that happening without Jones being brought up sooner than September. For the life of me, I just don’t understand how that decision hasn’t already been made.
That, and I don’t know how we can hold off the Yankees if we have HoRam taking the mound every 5 days. It looks like we’re going to have to win the division and I don’t know how anyone thinks we can pull that off with the team we have taking the field right now.
For what it’s worth, obviously Ichiro, Johjima, Putz, etc. are assets other teams would want, but I wouldn’t consider dealing them. I’m talking about veterans who may have some value to a team like the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. who expect to make a World Series run. Or, maybe somebody like the Brewers who has a perceived better chance than the M’s.
52 (matthew) – Well, I didn’t mean his decline is insane. Just this large of a drop off all at once. I didn’t like his extension either. My point is just that Ibanez as a hitter platooned against righties isn’t as bad as some other hitters on this team. So, if we’re going to go DFAing guys, Raul is not my first pick.
37- Thanks for finding my new desktop background.
49- I agree 100%, can we at least get a lame excuse straight from the source to bitch about?
What’s the old saying? “Those who don’t learn from mistakes are doomed to repeat them?” or something like that?
We all watched this team drop from a perennial contender to also-ran like a brick because they stuck with guys for far too long (Olerud, Boone, Wilson) because people liked them (”You gotta love these guys”) and they hoped it would turn around for them. Bavasi wasn’t here then, but Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln were. There isn’t any excuse for inaction.
That’s the problem. I don’t know if we’d get back something worth more than Beltre is for us. Sure, he’s not the MVP he was a few years ago, but he’s putting up solid numbers and is irreplaceable at 3rd. I’d much rather have the player we have in Beltre now, than anyone that Bavasi could swing for him in a trade. Sure, it might free up some salary for next year’s free agent class, but Bavasi’s track record isn’t that good. I’d rather keep the money in the Beltre column.
57 – I tend to agree with you. I like Beltre and even when he played poorly there were aspects of his game that I like. And, he’s still relatively young.
In a perfect world I was thinking Raul and Sexson… though, I know in my heart and my brain that nobody would take them.
I suppose Broussard is a potential chip, but because our management doesn’t appear to have faith in him over Sexson he has little to no trade value. So, are we stuck in mediocracy for the next decade? Are we the Toronto Blue Jays. Always good for 2nd/3rd place in the division? With a $110 million payroll that’s absurd.
So have we decided that Morrow is major league ready? His last couple games were good and he looked great today, but I’d still prefer to send him down and work on his control and his secondary pitches.
The entire fact that the Mariners first round pick from last summer is currently employed in the mopup/long relief role for the M’s is a total joke.
In the grand scheme of things what is Wlad, Clement and Triunfel worth the the Ms and to the rest of the league?
Wlad has a good bit of value, Clement has a bit less, and Triunfel shouldn’t be on the table. Seriously, don’t trade Triunfel.
Dave, someone had asked if AJ could go back to SS. I have some buddies suggesting that, too. Your thoughts?
No chance. None. It won’t happen, it shouldn’t happen, and it’s not even a consideration.
I know we’re still very much in the middle of a pennat race right now, but in all honesty wouldn’t it make some sense to pull a Chicago White Sox and become sellers right now instead of buyers?
No, it wouldn’t. They’re 2 1/2 games behind the Angels, who are struggling worse than the Mariners are, and don’t have the same internal opportunities to uprade their team. The M’s do not have the clout with their fanbase to give up on a very real playoff race, nor should they.
That’s why Dave would make a better GM than Bavasi.
I say the same thing every time someone brings this up – no, I wouldn’t. Being a GM is about 10% roster decisions and 90% people management. There’s far more to the job than deciding who should be on the team and who shouldn’t. There’s no one here qualified to run the Mariners.
That’s a great poster, Sports on a Schtick.
Here’s one positive…. how nice is it to be in a pennant race and be referencing the farm as a source of solutions?
Uh-oh the A’s are now 9 1/2 games back of first…I have the gut feeling they will be 2 1/2 out in a few weeks with the Mariners dropping back to third place, it’s better than last.
Geoff Baker on the radio this morning
they should have won those games yesterday — a veteran needs to take Felix aside for a talk (he must have missed Batista & Felix’ long chat the other day) — Mateo is tradebait, but if they don’t move him, by August he might be back up — and after much thought last night, pitching is the greater need, and Baker now votes (theoretically) in favor of dealing an Adam Jones for a Dontrelle Willis (’if you had a chance to get a guy who almost won a Cy Young two years ago, for someone who hasn’t shown you anything at the major league level yet …’)
oh pshaw– surely it can’t be any more complicated than moving guys around like pawns on a chessboard…
crap. angle brackets before coffee.
thank you.
I don’t know if I could stomach another Mariners trade at the deadline that appears horrible at the time and even worse in hindsight.
This team is exactly what most people thought it was from the beginning – a .500 team that might hit 90 wins if it gets lucky or 70 if unlucky. The M’s have been lucky and are on track to win 85-90. If they make a few changes here and there (i.e. the changes Dave discusses which everyone knows they should make) AND the luck continues, maybe they’ll make it to 95 wins. That will put them in contention for a playoff spot. The M’s best bet: the Angels do a big nose-dive, which isn’t all that unlikely given their recent injuries. Bottom line, though: the M’s have to be smart and lucky to make it, and the chances of both those happening seems slim to me.
Corollary to my comment above: I really hope the M’s don’t mortgage the future in any way for 2007, because 2007 is a bit of a long shot at this point.
#69
Does that include sending Morrow down to develop?
I think I am in favor of trading Adam Jones for Dontrelle now, too, since it’s obvious AJ isn’t getting called up.
On one condition.
Can he play left field on his non pitching days? He at least has a better arm than Raul.
/sarcasm
Personally, I’d leave Morrow to pitch low-leverage innings for the M’s for the remainder of this year. Next year, he should go back to AAA and get back into starting. I just think, now that the M’s have made the stupid decision to keep him around this long, they might as well let him experience a pennant race.
Being a GM is about 10% roster decisions and 90% people management.
Could you elaborate? I don’t necessarily disagree with the premise just curious as to who you mean by “people”. Also, given that statement, how much of an impact does a GM really have on a team then?
#71
I think he’s a better hitter than Raul too.
71 – I hope your /sarcasm tag applied to your entire post, and not just the part about Dontrelle in LF.
Seriously, Dontrelle Willis?? He’s a below-average pitcher in the NL – he’d be even worse in the AL.
Trading AJ for Willis is a STUPID idea.
Sorry for being so blunt, but it needs to be said.
Antonetti in ‘08!!
If I were Bavasi I would feel like I was in a Catch-22. On one hand, he knows that with the M’s being in the race at this point fans expect (rightfully so) him to do something to upgrade the roster. On the other, there doesn’t seem to be much available on the trade market and the M’s really shape up nicely for next year if he doesn’t move any young talent.
Therefore, if I were him, I would simply work within the organization to improve as Dave outlined. Don’t force a trade just to make it look like you’re doing something. The best options are already in the organization. If it works, great, we have a pennant race. If not, oh well, it’s been a fun season and the club is stacked for next year.
As a fan, I feel they have already exceeded my expectations for this season. I used to be a “go for broke at the deadline” kind of guy but this year it just ain’t worth it, especially with Bavasi at the helm.
75 (Honcho) – Yes, sir. /sarcasm all around.
Well, except for him having a better arm, obviously. Not sure I’d want to find out how good he is at fielding a gapper, though.
yay! a Willis discussion based on wins/losses and ERA! oh, and once again, Sandmeyer urges us to ignore all online sites other than Geoff Baker’s blog, I guess because they might talk about things other than wins, losses and ERA.
#52/Matthew,
How in the world could you consider being sellers at this point? You must be a deeply pessimistic, sad soul. Who won the World Series last year? Wait was it a team with an 83-78 record (There run differential was only 781-762?) So the M’s have no chance of winning in the playoffs? People like you make me sick always planning ahead 5 seasons for a magical lineup filled with second tier prospects developing into stars. As mentioned here earlier deadline deals are somewhat of a crapshoot that tend to have no big benefit to sellers (thanks to the compensation draft picks). The only thing selling accomplishes for sure is cutting payroll (which would certainly be cutting revenue as well). Why do you bother going on this site and allegadly rooting for this team if you want to sell right now? What have you been waiting for the last 4 years. You probably started watching baseball in 2001 and assume that you have to win 110 games to be considered good. Newsflash no one else in the league is that amazing either. We have a slightly good team that can easily be upgraded to a legit contender by promoting A. Jones and acquiring 2 or so more players with trades. Once you are in the playoffs anyone can win and we are certainly in the playoff race. Aneheim certainly does not scare me, they have as many problems as us if not more. Lets make a smart promotion and a smart buy and try to compete, not lay down.
80: the ad hominem attacks do nothing for your argument.
I am all for bringing Adam Jones up, I wish it had been done a long time ago. But why move him to left field. Lest we forget The M’s drafted him as a shortstop and made him into a centerfielder. Why not bring him up and move him to Center, move Ichiro to right and move Jose to left. Then you would still have a ton of speed in the outfield and a rookie sandwiched by two quality veterans. I’m just wondering why we want this kid to learn another position at the Major League Level. Just a thought….
80 (F-Rod) – May I suggest Firefox with it’s built in spell checker, and the use of paragraphs? Most people will give up on reading your points when it is constructed so poorly.
This isn’t meant as a flame, just a tip.
That said, IMHO, this team also needs another legitimate starter.
Yup, they sure do. But it’s too late to fix that problem now. When they went into the off-season needing to fill three rotation spots without any blue-chip AAA arms, they pretty much guaranteed they’d have a problem. When they thought a struggling NL #5 guy was a viable solution, they compounded it. Last year was the time to make a move to fix the rotation, but they weren’t thinking far enough ahead. Now there’s nobody available worth the asking price. I’ve got bones to pick with Bavasi about other stuff, but he seems to agree about that part – there are no difference makers available. They’re going to have to ride this rotation as far as it can take them this year, and try to upgrade two spots next year.
The Stones had it backwards. You can’t always get what you need.
opps i meant #51
I’m sensing a post coming on….
“The Case Against Dontrelle”
I say the same thing every time someone brings this up – no, I wouldn’t. Being a GM is about 10% roster decisions and 90% people management.
Agreed. Maybe that 90% people management part ought to include delegating the 10% roster deicision part to someone who’s good at it.
Work = internet explorer, home = firefox…I will try to save my longer blasts for home. But I was deeply disturbed by #51’s comments.
Regardless of Jones’ tear against minor league pitching, I don’t think he is the saviour everyone is making him out to be. They need to call up Mateo and demote Reitsma. Mateo may not be much better, but at least he could slap them around a little. Who knows, that might be just what they need right now.
Dontrelle—-Anyone remember what Randy Johnson pulled the summer he was traded. He stunk the Kingdome up then went 10-1 after being traded to Houston. I’m not saying Dontrelle is Randy and I’m not suggesting that he’s pulling the same thing, but there may be an opportunity here. Is it an AJ opportunity absolutely not. It would be a couple of pitching prospects and a solid catching prospect kind of opportunity. The Marlins have been rumored to be looking for a catcher.
If they trade AJ for Dontrelle Willis, I am done with this team until they have an entirely new front office.
Not cool with the slapping around statement, especially with women participating in this blog!!!!
Beyond the statistical reasons for bringing up Jones there is a visceral one. Watching athletes play sports is much more fun than watching old guys on bad legs. If I wanted to see a bunch of 30 somethings hobble around and swing from their butts I would go watch a softball game.
Sports on a Schtick – Thanks for the Banner! It is on my wall at work already.
The sad thing is that poster would’ve made sense two months ago.
At the very least Jones solves the defensive liability in left field. Ibanez is a smidge better with the glove than Manny Ramirez.
92 – Apologies for post 89, you are absolutely right.
[deleted, non productive self congratulatory comment]
OK, I’m not saying I approve of whatever Mateo did to his wife. But these are his stats in Tacoma:
3-1
31.2 IP
23 H
28 K
2 BB (!)
0.85 ERA
11 SV
I don’t know all the facts about the domestic situation. But it’s clear to me that, at this moment, Mateo is a better pitcher than Reitsma.
89 (billd) – I don’t think anyone hear thinks AJ is a savior, as you put it. It’s not like he’s going to be Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols. But, he absolutely needs to come out now while his contributions can make some sort of difference.
If you search the site, I believe about two weeks ago, Dave talked about how many wins his skills/stats could account for. That number decreases every single day he is not in the lineup.
This is a baseball team. Babe Ruth couldn’t put us in to the playoffs alone. You need 24 other guys with some skills that can contribute. So, no, he is not a savior. He is, though, an immediate upgrade, and adds win probability.
90 – Your forgetting a couple of important things when trying to compare the 2 situations. Randy was going from the A.L. to the N.L and not like Dontrelle who will be coming to the tougher league to pitch in.
Randy also was leaving the Kingdome and heading to the Astrodome, which if I remember correctly was a pitchers park while the Kingdome was a hitters park. Dontrelle is getting hit horribly hard not only in the weaker N.L., but in pitchers parks and is seriously having command issues.
Also I’ve heard that he has health concerns, this is just what I’ve heard, a forearm pain issue, which could be a reason why he sucks right now. In any case you can’t take your chances on a potentially hurt pitcher who you need right now to win, not next year.
Just my opinion but I wouldn’t give up any good prospects for Dontrelle, the only prospects/players I would give would be Jeremy Reed, Rene Rivera, Justin Lehr, and Horacio Ramirez, but that’s not going to happen.
Watching baseball, alot of it, paying attention and even taking notes and compiling them is the best way to build an understanding of what makes a winning baseball team.
Umpiring is a great way too. It gives you an up close view and a whole new perspective of how the game is being played.
PLAYING baseball rarely does much for ones understanding of what makes a good baseball team. For example Bill Krueger has played more Major League baseball than any of us I would presume, yet he seems to have very little understanding of what this team needs.
97 (Ralph Malph) – You’re comparing numbers against minor league hitters to those against major league hitters. So, let’s look at Julio’s MLB stats this season.
1-0 (Although, wins for relievers are a useless stat)
12 IP
12 H
4 K
5 BB
3.75 ERA
And don’t even think about bringing up small sample size, because I’ll have to waste more of USSM’s server space with his stats from last year, which were even worse.
[deleted, rosterbation]
They should trade Sexon and Ibanez for an OK young starter,
That won’t happen. There are no GM’s that are that stupid.
100 (Sec 108) – You know, I’d be curious to know what some of these guys really think. I imagine the Mariners would have an issue with the people on their broadcasts going against the grain.
You never hear Mike Blowers say “Wow. We’re talking about Adam Jones yet AGAIN on our ‘Building to the Future’ segment. Wow. He had another two extra base hit day. Maybe this guy should get called up.”
So, are these guys really that dumb, or are they instructed not to make waves? I doubt anyone here knows the answer, but my gut tells me the latter is true.
Mateo bit his wife. Bit her. She needed stitches. I generally don’t care about off-the-field behavior (a lot of great players were jerks), but come on… I will be seriously disappointed if Mateo ever puts on a Mariners uniform again.
For those that are crying for Mateo to be brought up, remember when we were all pleading for Grover to avoid using Mateo in any games that were close?
There was a reason for that.
Do you have evidence that Mateo is a different pitcher now than he was in previous years?
Carson – You are most likely correct. However, I still think ex-players are part of broadcast teams more for there anecdotal stories of past glory than they are for their insight.
I’m sure there is a tacit “don’t bite the hand that feeds us” message that is rigorously reinforced.
Isn’t Blowers now on the M’s payroll, along with the broadcast crew, or is he still on Fox’s dime? I understand entirely why Neihaus and co don’t make waves against their employers. I can see that some of the broadcasters have ‘gone native’ from spending so much time with the team. And it’s just not very Seattle to be so impolite as to tell someone that they’re totally screwing up.
It’s sad that the only people who take the license to criticise the team in the mainstream media (the KJR crew, Bill Krueger, the print press) don’t take the time to be well informed. They rely on the same washed out received baseball wisdom that got us into a horrible mess 2004-2006. Hence the calls for veteran right handed set up men, trades for Dontrelle Willis, assurances that Raul will be alright…
Adam Jones is going to be on Softy on KJR a bit later this morning.
Willis ‘07 is HoRam ‘06. Go look at the numbers (actually, Willis is slightly worse). The M’s already have a marginal starter from the NL East who declined further by coming to the AL. Can we just stop the Willis mythologizing already? If I were you, given reports that the M’s had a scout at the White Sox games over the weekend, I’d be worried they’re looking at trading Balentien and Clement (or Morrow) for Contreras.
Not cool with the slapping around statement, especially with women participating in this blog!!!!
Agreed. Whether there were women participating or not.
and meanwhile you can hear such pithy wisdom as “Mark Teixeira has superstar written all over him” …
This really shouldn’t need to be said, but the slapping statement is or isn’t cool on its own merits and has NOTHING whatsoever to do with whether women are participating in the conversation or not.
Even if Mateo had only brought his wife flowers and puppy dogs every day of their marriage, I wouldn’t want to see him in an M’s uniform ever again. Part of the reason the M’s bullpen has been so strong, and the M’s won as many games as they have, is that Mateo wasn’t out there tempting Hargrove to bring him in to give up runs. Reitsma is the new Mateo, and that’s a problem, but we don’t need another one (or replace one with the other). The M’s are winning (in part) because of the lack of Mateo, not in spite of it.
Thanks for getting there first, joser.
I’ve been reading this blog for three or four years now. For a blog the standard of postings is generally very high, but I recognize that not everyone has the wit and insight of Derek, Dave, Jason and Jeff.
That said, the spike in new posters here has corresponded with a spike in VERY SILLY SUGGESTIONS.
“Trade Sexson and Ibanez for decent young starter” is only the most recent. For God’s sake people if you’re going to take the time to type a comment, also take the time to think about what you are saying. Perhaps you should write it down on paper and read it to yourself and see if it sounds ludicrous (Hmmm, trade two washed up, lead-footed former sluggers, with no defensive ability, for one of the most valuable commodities in baseball? – nope, that’s not going to happen).
Maybe do a little research on performance, salaries, PECOTA projections, VORP and then submit an INFORMED comment.
Though I do think there may be some value in the guys who want to make “slapping around” statements feeling free to continue to make them — it’s good to know who the potential (or perhaps actual) domestic abusers are, so we can keep an eye on them. They should still expect opprobrium, of course.
Just looked on yahoo
reporting a rumor that a Sexson- Matt Morris deal is in the talks
would that mean Broussard as everyday 1b or Vidro?? Adam Jones Promotion??
let me know what you guys think
112- I said it wasn’t cool “especially” with…. not “because”……. in other words, I did say it wasn’t cool, justy take away the second part of the sentence. Sheesh, can’t even be considerate without getting chastised.
Mateo only has two walks in AAA this season. That’s not suprising to me. He’s always been a “pitch to contact” guy, and against inferior AAA bats, he can likely succeed with that strategy. When and if he gets back to the show, the old results will come again…
sfmc: Sorry, and I guess I kind of sort of appreciate the sentiment, except not really because it implies that the wimmenfolk need to be protected from that sort of conversation. Which… not so much.
Anyhow. If Jones isn’t up by Sunday, I’m either printing out multiple Jones posters or making the following banner:
RALLY FRIES HAVE QUITE A TEMPTING AROMA
BUT A REAL RALLY NEEDS ADAM JONES FROM TACOMA
Among my friends, we call Mateo “The Vulture” for his ability to steal wins from the starter by giving up a run or 3 after the starter did all the work. Then he went all Hannibal Lecter on his wife, and the irony burned like hygiene.
I’d rather not see Mateo in a M’s uniform again for many reasons.
#117– Yahoo is just passing on Ken Rosenthal’s comment that the Giants could look at Sexson.
“The Mariners, blanketing the majors with scouts in their pursuit of rotation and bullpen help, are drawing mild inquiries on first baseman Richie Sexson … The Giants have expressed past interest in Sexson, who is owed the balance of his $14 million salary this season and $14 million next season. The two teams apparently are not talking, but a Sexson-for-Matt Morris trade would make sense. Morris, also signed through next season, has struggled of late. Then again, Sexson is batting just .204.”
reporting a rumor that a Sexson- Matt Morris deal is in the talks
It’s not even as substantial as a rumor–the report says this:
“So far, the teams are not talking, though a Sexson-for-Matt Morris trade would make sense.”
Yahoo must have needed to fill up some MLB rumor pages or something.
First thought: Brian Sabaen has lost his effing marbles…
Now I’ll go look to see if that’s true.
reporting a rumor that a Sexson- Matt Morris deal is in the talks
In other news, I’m reporting a rumor that I’m sending my old computer to a place that recycles them for use with underprivileged children in exchange for a tax-deductible receipt and a general feeling of goodwill.
And I will get more out of that trade than the M’s or Giants will get out of Sexson or Morris.
I’m waiting for someone to make a t-shirt that reads:
FREE ADAM JONES
And on the back it says:
(NOT THAT ONE)
Pretending for a moment that such supposition was actually factually-based, Sexson for Morris would be an absolute no brainer victory for the Ms-even if Morris never threw a pitch for them. Assuming the Ms declined Morris’ ‘09 option, they’d still save approximately $5M while solving a log jam on the roster.
[deleted, rosterbation]
What’s up with all the trade speculation?
And I will get more out of that trade than the M’s or Giants will get out of Sexson or Morris.
Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see Morris as an upgrade on HoRam. Not MUCH of an upgrade, but since Sexson and Morris’s salaries are a wash and their contract status is similar (expiring after 2008), it wouldn’t hurt the team, and it WOULD remove one of the roster roadblocks in front of our younger players (Jones, Wlad, Clement).
Our pitching staff isn’t quite so jammed up as the OF and 1B is with mediocre players (HoRam is a BAD player), so having a very ‘eh’ and overpaid Morris in the rotation wouldn’t be so bad if it got Sexson off the team.
Of course, the critical part is who else goes in the deal… but if it was Sexson/Reed/Mateo for Morris, for instance, I wouldn’t lose much sleep (Wlad and Clement would be nonstarters for me).
IF there were Sexson for Morris talks, rather than just rumor based on some reporter’s speculation of what “makes sense,” I’m still not sure I’d be interested. Morris makes $9.5M this year, $9.5M next, and somewhere between $9M and $11M (depending on escalators) in ‘09, though there is a fairly cheap ($1M) buyout of the ‘09 year, if it has no vesting.
Wihout vesting, knowing I could get a pitcher for Sexson and save the difference of $1.8M this year, and $3.5M more of the rest of their respective contracts (40% of their ‘07 salaries – MM $9.5M, RS $14M = RS $5.6M minus MM $3.8M for the rest of this year = savings of $1.8M this year; ‘08 salaries of RS $14M minus MM $9.5M plus $1 buyout for ‘09 = $3.5M), I might do that. Morris sucks, and will continue to decline, but so will Sexson, and he’ll be the bigger drain while Morris might get a boost pitching in Safeco.
However, my guess is that this deal can’t be done without the Mariners paying enough of Richie’s salary to equalize $$ output for each team. If so, that’s a lot less attractive deal, but still the ONLY way I would consider a deal for Matt Morris.
The whole thing makes me throw up in my mouth a little bit.
why was my post deleted?
Everytime I go to ussmariner, a little part of me dies when I don’t see “Adam Jones called up to the Mariners”.
Totally DW!!!
I Love The Adam Jones Poster and Rally Poster
I remember a few weeks back when it seemed to everyone that the front office was making decisions based on well thought out, statistically based arguments on this site (and others). A few things that were being preached about needing to be done on this site (and others), promotion and roster-wise, were supposedly about to happen. This all shortly following the 1st inning Pitch selection Open Letter, it made sense that key people would find some weight in well explained statistical arguments made by the authors.
All of a sudden those moves don’t quite happen that way. If the decision makers did everything that was said here, maybe they feel thier job wouldn’t be so safe. Since the general fanbase knows no better, they are better off not following what’s said here than letting everyone think they didn’t make thier own decisions and are completely lost, having to rely on bloggers to figure things out for them. It would have been a story by itself that it seemed they were making decisions based on blogs. They are better off. Not the team, though.
errr, Terry said pretty much what I did in many fewer words. But I disagree that it would be a “no-brainer victory for the M’s.” Even if they saved the $5M+ in salary differences (assuming the Giants would make that deal with te $$ so favoring the M’s – an assumption I do NOT make), they still have an albatross contract on their hands for a seriously declining player.
“pursuit of rotation and bullpen help”
Since when do the mariners need bullpen help?
The active bullpen combined stats:
W-L: 15-3
ERA: 2.77
Saves: 29
Thats all you really need from a bullpen so I’ll leave it at that.
(My computer froze so this post is about ten comments away from where it is supposed to be)
135: Right but it’s a less fat albatross and there is always a greater chance that the Ms could deal an ugly arm during the offseason (even if it means giving him away or paying to make him go away)than an ugly first baseman.
Better bullpen management is more like it. Sherrill is clearly the second-arm but he gets treated like a LOOGY. Reitsma might be the worst arm but he gets treated like a set-up man.
Just like they used to do with Mateo… sometimes you have to wonder why we like this team.
Jack Clark
I’ll take a wild guess and say you were touting a trade or a team shuffle that is highly unlikely to happen. Hence the “rosterbation” take.
Mr. Cameron won’t put up with such nonsense for long.
so Jose Lopez is a player that is considered “untouchable?”
Read the comment guidelines, then post.
Lemme see. Good, young, cheap, under team control for several more seasons, no replacements close to being ready in the M’s minor league system. Not Felix, no, but probably not going anywhere.
I don’t see him as untouchable if the right deal comes along but I can see your point.
terry: IF it’s a straight swap, and the M’s save the $5M+ (which I doubt would happen), point taken. Otherwise, meh. If they are winners on $$/salary, my guess is it would take Sexson + a “B” prospect, and I’m not sure that’s worth it.
126 – Hilarious.
I’d buy that yesterday…
120 (Lauren) – Hilarious. However, I doubt I have to tell you the odds of it getting on TV, let alone getting you some free fries.
Also, after it’s nixed by the TV producer, I can almost assure you that it’s existence would ever reach Bavasi. Wonderful idea, but probably not worth your effort.
The use of Chris Reitsma in the 8th inning last night sent me a very clear message: John McLaren does not know what the hell he is doing. That was an awful decision, completely indefensible, and the blame for the loss belongs solely to McLaren.
I am quite serious when I say that it calls into question McLaren’s basic understanding of his roster, his players’ strengths and weaknesses, and how to manage a game.
What possible reason could McLaren actually have for inserting Reitsma into that crucial situation? Did he want to lose the game?
Unless you turn Mario Martinez or Carlos Triunfel into a second baseman (something I dont suggest as I would rather have lopez starting as opposed to betancourt) there are no replacements for lopez at all.
Reitsma was signed to provide an experienced backup stopper in case JJ had lingering injury problems coming out of spring training.
I’m sure that, at least as of yesterday, McLaren would say that Reitsma is his backup stopper.
As much as we’d find that laughable with GS and Green on the staff.
I think it’s safe to categorize Lopez as serviceable. He isn’t great and will probably never be great, but he’s a decent hitter who with a decent glove. Yuni on the other hand…
I’m sure that, at least as of yesterday, McLaren would say that Reitsma is his backup stopper.
That’s exactly my point. If this is true, McLaren should be summarily dismissed.
I’d have to say that so far, I am extremely disappointed with McLaren.
I expected his decision making style to be closer to Lou than to Grover. But if you put them on some sort of scale, McLaren would only be just a smidge different from Grover.
I believe that the McLaren’s motivation (and one that I heartily oppose, by the way) is that relievers need roles, and that these roles must be instilled into the seemingly random pitchers selected to fill them. If a pitcher is coming back from an injury or a demotion, you have to teach them how to become a setup man again. What we’re going through, McLaren would say, is just the growing pains. Have him pitch in mopup duty? That’d do no good.
It’s just another bit of collateral damage from the creation of the save. Chris Reitsma has 37 of them: Sherril has 1. Because he has more experience in close games, Reitsma deserves to continue to pitch in them: it’s the same mentality that you see in every inefficient office in America.
I wish Theo’s experiment last year had worked, and that he could show how useless the save statistic is. Instead he’s got his third-best starter being used for seventy innings a year and everyone loves him for it.
Was Adam Jones considered a good defensive player while playing shortstop? Was it a mistake to make him an outfielder, being that Yuni has really struggled in the infield.
Just throwing this theory out there, but maybe Bavasi want’s to wait till after the trade deadline to bring up Jones because he thinks he can get more for someone if he calls them a “starter” than if they were benched because they called up AJ. Not saying I support it, but that is the closest thing I can come up with to a logical explanation of why someone reasonably intelligent hasn’t made this move. Bavasi being a total retard being the other explanation.
156 (mikelb420) – If that is his reasoning, I’d challenge his being labled intelligent.
Why trade young talent, when you have an option that costs you NOTHING that would most likely be better than anything on the trading block?
I see the ability to read management minds has resurfaced.
At least they’re not still doing it in Japanese.
Just throwing this theory out there, but maybe Bavasi want’s to wait till after the trade deadline to bring up Jones because he thinks he can get more for someone if he calls them a “starter” than if they were benched because they called up AJ.
There have been some pretty bad GMs employed by various teams over the years, but I don’t think any of them would allow “starter status” to affect their evaluation of a player. I certainly don’t think there’s one working today who would.
Popularity has it’s price.
joser said:
Agreed. Sounds like the way a fantasy baseball GM might position for a trade, rather than a real one.
there are no replacements for lopez at all.
Turbo!
NO RALPH, PLEASE NO!!!
Theres a great article on Adam Jones Power comparisons over at Firstinning.com…
http://firstinning.com/content/200707142
If Lopez was part of any trade plans then why sign him to an extension deal to lock him up to the club?
However if the M’s did trade him there are replacements :
Bloomquist
Vidro
At AAA
Nick Green
Yung Chi Chen (on 7 day DL)
Gookie Dawkins
Brant Ust
all 2ndBmen but none are on the 40 or 25 man MLB roster.
There is also Navvarro a SS who can handle 2ndB and is on the 40 man roster.
Either way this is speculative talk and is a moot one Lopez isn’t going anywhere.
117:Sexson for Matt Morris deal with the Giants while just a rumor is however a good deal for both clubs as long as it’s a one for one straight across deal.
Salary and contract wise a wash and Morris would be a short term answer for the #5 slot in the rotation til either Feierabend or one of the others in AAA proves out better.
However I doult the deal will be made but the chance is there cause the Giant GM has coveted Sexson for some time now.
As to some here who are so hot with McClaren I say now what some many said to me about Grover:
Cut the guy some slack and give him time to get his job done.
I mean if Grover deserved nearly 2 seasons of patience then McClaren rates at least that.
Once AJ is called up, what are you guys going to talk about then?
Who gets DFA’d next, and when.
JeffS mostly likely Balenien maybe Clement etc…. Believe me with the AAA being in Tacoma there’s always a prospect of one position or another to praise and want called up or the reverse and on and on ………
Maybe there’s also a grammar class around here where they can explain what a run-on sentence is and why you shouldn’t use one because it is more difficult to read and muddies the meaning of what you are trying to say and the people you are trying to say it to tune out halfway through your run-on sentences and don’t get to the end or understand your meaning.
Man. A’s are totally trying to come back in the 9th. Awesome.
WOO Scuuuuuuuutaro! A’s have tied it up. Scutaro gets all of Raul’s U’s.
Is it depressing that I don’t mind we’re giving Raul’s Us to an Oakland guy?
Hey, Raul wasn’t using them. Might as well lend them to an A for the moment.
And yes, I realize that any sign of A’s competence will come back to bite us in the ass.
#174…Any sign of A’s competence: Joe Kennedy gave up a single w/1 out in the bottom of the 9th, a groundout got the runner to 2B, Rob Bowen (Jason Kendall’s successor at C) allowed a passed ball, and Izturis hit a single to score the runner from 3B.
In other words, no sign of competence in the bottom of the 9th, anyway.
Ugh.
Is it still soon enough to nullify the giving away of Raul’s Us?
Why not just continue on to give away Raul himself?
Not before his bobblehead night! That’s crazy talk.
Anybody listen to Geoff Baker’s audio response on his blog stating that he would trade the Adam Jones straight up for the potential Tommy John surgery needing, getting blasted in the N.L. and in pitchers parks Florida Marlins Dontrelle Willis?
166 – Who was telling you to give Hargrove a chance? At least for here, that smells like a strawman.
It didn’t take long at all to see where that ship was headed.
Honestly, unless there is some completely crazy explanation, like a promise to do what he thinks Mike would do, or Mike actually making the calls by cellphone, or something involving large, last minute wagers…. then our new skipper has made some indefensible decisions already.
And I thought the whole (expletive) Dave Samson thing had ended the Dontrelle discussions, if that didn’t do it then what does it take?
That’s how you drive in Ichiro. nice job AB