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	<title>Comments on: Conclusions &#8211; Correct and Incorrect</title>
	<atom:link href="http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: Bearman</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213234</link>
		<dc:creator>Bearman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jul 2007 03:24:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213234</guid>
		<description>I agree the season is far from over and the M&#039;s have overcome losing streaks of this and bit longer duration already.Maybe a 10 game homestand is just what the doctor ordered we&#039;ll see.

Agreed but that doesn&#039;t mean they aren&#039;t good enough to put the fear of God into them til almost if not the end of season and the wild card still is a real possible goal.

Agreed the M&#039;s have the setup guys they just need to let them do their job Sherrill/Green/O&#039;Flaherty and with the recent addition of Lowe you have more than enough arms to bridge to JJ with great success.

Again Agreed unless a deal is offered that has a very low trade cost with a good upside like the the rumored Sexson for Matt Morris one withthe Giants.
Best deal would be the aquring of P Aaron Harang from the Reds provided they don&#039;t ask a unreasonable trade price (namely Jones/Balenien/Morrow).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree the season is far from over and the M&#8217;s have overcome losing streaks of this and bit longer duration already.Maybe a 10 game homestand is just what the doctor ordered we&#8217;ll see.</p>
<p>Agreed but that doesn&#8217;t mean they aren&#8217;t good enough to put the fear of God into them til almost if not the end of season and the wild card still is a real possible goal.</p>
<p>Agreed the M&#8217;s have the setup guys they just need to let them do their job Sherrill/Green/O&#8217;Flaherty and with the recent addition of Lowe you have more than enough arms to bridge to JJ with great success.</p>
<p>Again Agreed unless a deal is offered that has a very low trade cost with a good upside like the the rumored Sexson for Matt Morris one withthe Giants.<br />
Best deal would be the aquring of P Aaron Harang from the Reds provided they don&#8217;t ask a unreasonable trade price (namely Jones/Balenien/Morrow).</p>
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		<title>By: msb</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213208</link>
		<dc:creator>msb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jul 2007 01:28:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213208</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;My #1 gripe about Geoff Baker is his belief that we need to trade for a set up guy&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;a href=&quot;http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2007/07/urgent_action_needed.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;like this?&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>My #1 gripe about Geoff Baker is his belief that we need to trade for a set up guy</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2007/07/urgent_action_needed.html" rel="nofollow">like this?</a></p>
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		<title>By: westfried</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213161</link>
		<dc:creator>westfried</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 23:41:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213161</guid>
		<description>&quot;but had the M’s managed 3-3 splits of their two recent six game loss streaks against crappy teams, they’d have the best record in baseball&quot;

I think that&#039;s the rub about this team.  And why we (collectively) seem so &quot;pessimistic&quot; about them.

Does anyone here really believe the Ms are the best team in baseball?  Or are even close?  I have a hard time calling them top-5, maybe even lower than that.

They&#039;ve got a good record, which is better than having a bad record, but that doesn&#039;t make them a great team.  They&#039;ve overachieved, which is great.

But they are a deeply flawed team.  Terrible 3-4-5, worst DH in baseball, mediocre-to-bad starters, 2/3 bad outfield defense, and consistenly bad managing.

So, we get all emotional, we complain.  Not because they&#039;re doing &quot;badly&quot;, but because they could be SOOO much better.  AJ in left, Sherrill more than a loogy, etc.  All the pieces we&#039;re discussing.  And, to take the wish-casting even further, how &#039;bout a dominating righty setup guy (oh, name rhymes with &quot;taffy&quot;) that we didn&#039;t need to trade away?  Etc.

The team is a tease.  We want them to do well, we see how the could do better.  That&#039;s not pessimism, that&#039;s realism.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;but had the M’s managed 3-3 splits of their two recent six game loss streaks against crappy teams, they’d have the best record in baseball&#8221;</p>
<p>I think that&#8217;s the rub about this team.  And why we (collectively) seem so &#8220;pessimistic&#8221; about them.</p>
<p>Does anyone here really believe the Ms are the best team in baseball?  Or are even close?  I have a hard time calling them top-5, maybe even lower than that.</p>
<p>They&#8217;ve got a good record, which is better than having a bad record, but that doesn&#8217;t make them a great team.  They&#8217;ve overachieved, which is great.</p>
<p>But they are a deeply flawed team.  Terrible 3-4-5, worst DH in baseball, mediocre-to-bad starters, 2/3 bad outfield defense, and consistenly bad managing.</p>
<p>So, we get all emotional, we complain.  Not because they&#8217;re doing &#8220;badly&#8221;, but because they could be SOOO much better.  AJ in left, Sherrill more than a loogy, etc.  All the pieces we&#8217;re discussing.  And, to take the wish-casting even further, how &#8217;bout a dominating righty setup guy (oh, name rhymes with &#8220;taffy&#8221;) that we didn&#8217;t need to trade away?  Etc.</p>
<p>The team is a tease.  We want them to do well, we see how the could do better.  That&#8217;s not pessimism, that&#8217;s realism.</p>
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		<title>By: tyruschen</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213143</link>
		<dc:creator>tyruschen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 22:48:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213143</guid>
		<description>Hi Dave, 

Do you think the losing streak is some kind of regression since M&#039;s expected wins are much lower than actual wins? (I&#039;m sorry if somebody has asked this.) After the cruel sweep they still have a +4 advantage (index = 1.82) and that&#039;s the highest in AL.

And if their overachievement keep on decreasing then trading some good prospects for a slim chance may not be a good idea...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Dave, </p>
<p>Do you think the losing streak is some kind of regression since M&#8217;s expected wins are much lower than actual wins? (I&#8217;m sorry if somebody has asked this.) After the cruel sweep they still have a +4 advantage (index = 1.82) and that&#8217;s the highest in AL.</p>
<p>And if their overachievement keep on decreasing then trading some good prospects for a slim chance may not be a good idea&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: eponymous coward</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213126</link>
		<dc:creator>eponymous coward</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 21:52:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213126</guid>
		<description>Slocumb for Varitek/Lowe is comparable to picking up Jose Mesa for Feierabend and Clement. There is NO WAY anyone would endorse that, even if we did win a pennant in 2007 with Mesa pitching decently the rest of the way.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Slocumb for Varitek/Lowe is comparable to picking up Jose Mesa for Feierabend and Clement. There is NO WAY anyone would endorse that, even if we did win a pennant in 2007 with Mesa pitching decently the rest of the way.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213118</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 21:15:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213118</guid>
		<description>DAM, you&#039;re just massively wrong about this whole issue and living in dillusion if you think I agreed with you.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DAM, you&#8217;re just massively wrong about this whole issue and living in dillusion if you think I agreed with you.</p>
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		<title>By: eponymous coward</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213116</link>
		<dc:creator>eponymous coward</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 21:09:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213116</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;We gave up too much for Slocumb, but he was a huge part of our playoff push in 97 and it is extremely unlikely that the Mariners could’ve made the playoffs without him.&lt;/i&gt;

Nope, no-one agrees with you. We finished 6 games in front, and Slocumb was very mediocre.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>We gave up too much for Slocumb, but he was a huge part of our playoff push in 97 and it is extremely unlikely that the Mariners could’ve made the playoffs without him.</i></p>
<p>Nope, no-one agrees with you. We finished 6 games in front, and Slocumb was very mediocre.</p>
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		<title>By: Kunkoh</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213115</link>
		<dc:creator>Kunkoh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 21:09:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213115</guid>
		<description>Yes, the problem is that you assert that it was a good trade because it helped (marginally, if really at all) to get our team to the post season that year. The problem is, that trade then hurt us for the next few years; and wasn’t even enough of an improvement to get past the first round of the play offs. I don’t think that justifies calling the trade successful. The argument that it was good trade because he was better than what we had, while completely ignoring how it hurt us for the next few years.  

I also don’t believe that the trade lead to us being 6 games ahead of Anaheim that year, and would bet money that we would have beaten the Angels without him. (Can you honestly argue that he was worth 6 games???) So, IMO it was a trade that did not truly effect the outcome of the year, and thus didn’t need to be made, AND went on to hurt the M’s for the next several years. 

Which comes back to this year. Would a trade like that be worth while? IMO, no. Not when it would only help a smidgeon this year, but hurt us for the next few years. I’ld rather miss the playoffs this year, and have a real shot at them for the next 3-4yrs. 

I also don’t remember him agreeing with you more than admitting that he wasn’t as horrible as every one else. That’s not agreeing that the trade was a good idea. Just that dog poop is better to step in than elephant poop. Either way, it’s still poop.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, the problem is that you assert that it was a good trade because it helped (marginally, if really at all) to get our team to the post season that year. The problem is, that trade then hurt us for the next few years; and wasn’t even enough of an improvement to get past the first round of the play offs. I don’t think that justifies calling the trade successful. The argument that it was good trade because he was better than what we had, while completely ignoring how it hurt us for the next few years.  </p>
<p>I also don’t believe that the trade lead to us being 6 games ahead of Anaheim that year, and would bet money that we would have beaten the Angels without him. (Can you honestly argue that he was worth 6 games???) So, IMO it was a trade that did not truly effect the outcome of the year, and thus didn’t need to be made, AND went on to hurt the M’s for the next several years. </p>
<p>Which comes back to this year. Would a trade like that be worth while? IMO, no. Not when it would only help a smidgeon this year, but hurt us for the next few years. I’ld rather miss the playoffs this year, and have a real shot at them for the next 3-4yrs. </p>
<p>I also don’t remember him agreeing with you more than admitting that he wasn’t as horrible as every one else. That’s not agreeing that the trade was a good idea. Just that dog poop is better to step in than elephant poop. Either way, it’s still poop.</p>
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		<title>By: timc</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213111</link>
		<dc:creator>timc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 21:00:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213111</guid>
		<description>33 - The least stinky pile of crap is still a pile of crap, and trading two useful pieces for said pile of crap is a bad deal, even though you have stinkier piles of crap around.

I don&#039;t know how you can go from Dave&#039;s concession that Slocumb&#039;s FIP was not as jaw-droppingly awful as the rest of the bullpen&#039;s to dismissing the badness of the trade with a simple &quot;we&#039;ve discussed that trade.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>33 &#8211; The least stinky pile of crap is still a pile of crap, and trading two useful pieces for said pile of crap is a bad deal, even though you have stinkier piles of crap around.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know how you can go from Dave&#8217;s concession that Slocumb&#8217;s FIP was not as jaw-droppingly awful as the rest of the bullpen&#8217;s to dismissing the badness of the trade with a simple &#8220;we&#8217;ve discussed that trade.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: byronebyronian</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/comment-page-1/#comment-213106</link>
		<dc:creator>byronebyronian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 20:48:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/25/conclusions-correct-and-incorrect/#comment-213106</guid>
		<description>My #1 gripe about Geoff Baker is his belief that we need to trade for a set up guy.  We have Sherrill and Green and both seem capable (both in ability and statiscally) of getting it done.  Why can&#039;t Johnny Mac not see this?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My #1 gripe about Geoff Baker is his belief that we need to trade for a set up guy.  We have Sherrill and Green and both seem capable (both in ability and statiscally) of getting it done.  Why can&#8217;t Johnny Mac not see this?</p>
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