Outfield Defense
If you’ve read this blog for any length of time, you know that one of my pet projects is the value of outfield defense, especially as it relates to the Mariners. During his time in Seattle, I continually wrote long treatises on the value of Mike Cameron’s defense to the Mariners, and did a bunch of work showing just how tremendously valuable the M’s outfield alignment of Winn-Cameron-Ichiro was during the 2003 season.
That year, the M’s essentially ran an outfield alignment with a mediocre center fielder playing left field, a great center fielder playing center field, and a good center fielder playing right field. They converted long fly balls into outs instead of doubles, and their range also helped them cut balls off in the gaps and keep hitters to singles instead of taking the extra base. Over the course of the season, the gloves of the M’s outfielders saved approximately 40 runs above what an average outfield defense would have allowed. 40 runs!
If you add 40 runs back to the 2003 Mariners earned runs total, their team ERA for the season goes from 3.76 to 4.01, and instead of going 93-69, the team would have gone something like 89-73. The Winn-Cameron-Ichiro group added approximately four wins to the Mariners ledger simply by gobbling up fly balls hit into the outfield.
The Mariners, however, failed to understand what was happening before their very eyes. They non-tendered Mike Cameron (a staggeringly bad decision), moved Randy Winn to center field, and imported Raul Ibanez from Kansas City to act as an offensive upgrade while admittedly sacrificing some defense, but still expected their contact pitching staff to duplicate the results from their successful 2003 season. It didn’t happen.
Ryan Franklin’s ERA rose from 3.57 to 4.90. Jamie Moyer’s went from 3.27 to 5.21. Joel Pineiro went from 3.78 to 4.67. Shigetoshi Hasegawa went from 1.48 to 5.16. Julio Mateo went from 3.15 to 4.68. And the team went from 93 wins to 63 wins.
Now, not all of that regression was due to the outfield defense. Franklin and Hasegawa were going to get worse no matter who was playing defense behind them - they had flukey years that simply weren’t sustainable, and it was obvious before the season started that expecting a repeat was just going to lead to disappointment. But the Mariners failed to recognize the strong connection between the performance of their pitchers and the abilities of the defenders in the outfield.
It’s been 3 1/2 years, and the Mariners still fail to recognize the strong connection betwen the performance of their pitchers and the abilities of the defenders in the outfield. They’re still asking Raul Ibanez to cover the largest left field area in the American League despite the fact that he runs like an 84-year-old grandfather looking for his life alert button. They’re discussing the idea of giving Jose Guillen a contract extension despite the fact that his continuing ankle and leg problems have eroded a lot of his ability to cover ground in right field. They have one very good defensive outfielder flanked by a disaster and a problem. And it’s killing them.
Let’s take a look at some numbers. Thanks to the great work of Baseball Info Solutions and The Hardball Times, we have some raw data on where balls are being hit when they’re put in play. I’ve taken the 2007 data and done the number crunching for you. There are, on average, .21 catchable balls hit into the zone of a left fielder in any given inning. That number is .27 for center field and .21 for right field. These numbers don’t include things like home runs or groundballs - plays that obviously the fielders have no chance of converting into an out. These are balls that, to some degree or another, are catchable in at least some occassions. Adjusting those rates per 150 games (assuming that most players won’t play every inning of every game), we get the following opportunities:
Left Field: 282 chances
Center Field: 377 chances
Right Field: 291 chances
RF is slightly higher because there are fractionally more chances hit to right field than left field leaguewide, but the difference is pretty small. Center fielders clearly get more chances than their corner outfield brethren. This is all intuitive, or at least it should be, and this is why teams stick their rangiest outfielder in center field, then basically split left/right field between which guy has the better arm, with the wimpy throwing armed guy heading to left field.
Now, again, leaguewide, we see that these outfielders don’t turn the balls in their zones into outs at an equal rate. To date in 2007, center fielders have converted 90% of their chances into outs. Right fielders are at 87%, and left fielders are at 85%. Again, this should be about what we expect. The best defenders play center field, and they get to more balls than their less agile counterparts. The right fielders make more plays than the left fielders, which isn’t a big surprise either, as LF is generally the dumping ground for guys who should be DH’ing but aren’t.
Now, where do the Mariners outfielders rate. I’m glad you asked.
Raul Ibanez: 148 opportunities, 117 outs, 79%, 22 “out of zone” plays
Ichiro Suzuki, 226 opportunities, 204 outs, 90%, 66 “out of zone” plays
Jose Guillen: 152 opportunities, 135 outs, 89%, 20 “out of zone” plays
Ibanez is ahead of only Manny Ramirez among American League outfielders in turning balls in his zone into outs, and his 22 out of zone plays is not particularly impressive either.
Ichiro has been just about average on getting to balls in his zone, but his 66 out of zone plays is way ahead of the pack - Torii Hunter, for instance, in the same amount of innings, has made 35 out of zone plays, and only Curtis Granderson and Gary Matthews Jr have more than 50. Some of this is a ballhog effect, where Ichiro calls off other outfielders on plays either of them could have made, but just the fact that he’s able to cover so much ground to be able to catch so many balls in left and right field is remarkable.
Jose Guillen has been a tick above average on getting to balls in his zone, but his 20 out of zone catches is rather unimpressive.
Now, I need to stop and make some caveats about this information before we get too carried away - this is rudimentary work, and there are some things that can significantly effect this data that need to be adjusted for. Safeco, for instance, makes it significantly easier for left and center fielders to catch a flyball than the average park, thanks to the air that kills the ball in the left-center field gap and causes it to hang for what seems like years. There are also issues with hit locations - not all balls hit into a zone are created equal, and over a sample as small as half a season, there’s no guarantee that all fielders are getting equal opportunities. To get a real sense of the value of the performances of the outfielders, the data needs to be adjusted in several ways.
Thankfully, a guy named Mitchel Lichtman has done a huge amount of the heavy lifting, creating a run value statistic that does a fairly good job at evaluating outfielders abilities when given a large enough data sample, even including the value of arm strength on outfield assists. MGL’s work on Ultimate Zone Rating got him hired by the St. Louis Cardinals, so don’t worry, this isn’t some idiot in a basement who needs to get out and watch a game or two. UZR isn’t perfect, and if you’ve read any of my takes on defense before, you know that I still believe there’s a fairly decent margin for error in the numbers, so I prefer to present individual defensive data in ranges. But, contrary to a lot of generally accepted knowledge, we really can quantify defensive value with some degree of certainty - at least enough to put people into groupings such as “terrible”, “solid”, and “good”. And when we get agreement in opinion between the data and scouting reports (both think Adam Everett is one of the great defensive shortstops of all time), we can be fairly certain that the information is right on.
So, we know what the raw data says. What does UZR, with its adjustments for parks and hit type, say about Mariner outfielders year to date?
Raul Ibanez: 14 runs below average
Ichiro: 3 runs above average
Jose Guillen: 11 runs below average
If we project that out over a 150 game season, we get -29 for Ibanez, -24 for Guillen, and +5 for Ichiro, or a season total of 48 runs below average. 48 runs below average. According to UZR, the 2007 Mariner outfield defense is as bad as the 2003 Mariner outfield defense was good.
Now, again, we’re only working with a little over a half season’s worth of data, and the margin of error is higher with defensive statistics than offensive statistics, so we have to temper our conclusions a bit. Regression to the mean needs to be a vital part of any defensive analysis, and since we have other data (previous years, scouting reports, injury information, etc…), we can use these inputs to create a realistic projection of what the actual talent level of the Mariners currrent outfielders defensive level is. Using what we know about Ibanez, Ichiro, and Guillen, I’d say that their expected defensive value over the course of a normal season would be -20 runs for Ibanez, +10 runs for Ichiro, and -10 runs for Guillen, with a margin of error of about 5 runs in each direction. Ibanez might be -15 or -25, but either way, he’s horrible. There’s no way around that.
A lot of people are kvetching over the Mariners lack of pitching, blaming the guys on the mound for the team’s inability to keep other teams from scoring runs. But, as a whole, the entire city of Seattle, including the team in it, is missing the boat on the other aspect of the run prevention formula - defense. The Mariners defense, especially in the outfield, is terrible - one of the very worst in the league.
This is one of the reasons I’m not particularly concerned with the alignment of the Mariners outfielders. It doesn’t matter much if Adam Jones is in left field, center field, or right field. The key is to simply have the terrific defensive outfielders actually out there. Alignment doesn’t really matter. A center fielders defensive value isn’t wasted in left or right field, especially in a park like Safeco Field, as long as you still have an actual center fielder playing center field.
The Mariners need to allow fewer runs. They have yet to figure out how to identify good pitchers and bring them to Seattle, so it’s time to go another direction. Surround your mediocre pitchers with great gloves and then just watch the pitching magically improve.
Sticking Adam Jones in left field instead of Raul Ibanez will save the team more runs than trading for any starting pitcher. Forget the offense - forget his Triple-A numbers. Adam Jones could hit .200 and help this club win games.
This is a move that absolutely has to happen. The Mariners have ignored a glaring weakness for far too long. It has to end tonight. Improve the defense - improve the team.
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Fantastic post Dave. Last night had yet another example of why Ibanez in LF hurts this team. The Catalanatto double would’ve been easily tracked down by Jones.
My question, and by no means am I trying to demean your work here or add value to Ibanez or Guillen (I’m not a fan of either), but how does Ichiro compare to other CFers in regards to out of zone plays? And couldn’t corner OFers lose out of zone plays due to an above average CF?
amen.
I actually worded that incorrectly. It should read: How does Ichiro compare to other CFers and their corner OFers in regards to out of zone plays? Like you said in the post, but couldn’t an over aggressive CF “steal” out of zone balls from his other OFers?
Sorry about that, still on the first cup of coffee.
Ichiro’s OOZ plays are the highest in the league, by a pretty substantial margin. I’m fairly certain that this is mostly (or at least significantly) due to the ballhog effect, where discretionary fly balls that could be fielded by Ichiro or Ibanez/Guillen are always being caught by Ichiro after he calls them off. These discretionary plays don’t actually add any tangible value to the team, since they would have simply been caught by the other fielder. They do show that Ichiro has remarkable range, however. How to break the OOZ plays into actual outs saved and discretionary plays is where MGL’s work with UZR comes in. Without getting too complex, he’s got more information than I presented here, and he’s able to reward or penalize a fielder an incremental amount based on how historically likely a ball hit into that specific area was to be turned into an out.
And before I posted this (I wrote most of it yesterday), I had a friend check with John Dewan, the owner of BIS and the guy responsible for the data in the post. He confirmed that on out of zone plays made by a fielder, the in zone player is not penalized for his lack of a catch.
Essentially, an OOZ catch for Ichiro in Ibanez’s area is credited to Ichiro as such, but no mark is made on the Ibanez ledger, so he doesn’t get nicked for a missed opportunity. In terms of the stats for Ibanez, it’s as if the play never happened.
Since we are talking defense, if AJ is brought up. Should he play RF and move Guillen to LF? Who would be better at 1st base defensively Ibanez or Sexson? Or would it be better with Broussard there, or does it even matter that much?
Wow. That was a long, well written piece. I don’t know what more you can do, Dave. I really don’t.
1 (Trent) - Ichiro has the highest OOZ in baseball.
There really isn’t anything left to say. Mariner Nation is waiting, Mr. Bavasi…
Thanks Dave. Further evidence that Ichiro is good and Raul and Guillen are not. Hooray ridiculously useless extentions!
As underrated as defense is in Football, and more so in Basketball; it seems it is ignored the most in Baseball. Almost all the credit for a team not scoring goes to the pitcher (era?); who also gets the blame if a lot of runs are given up. That’s a big reason I would love to see Jones up here. His bat can’t be worse than Raul’s; but his defense should be a huge improvement which would help the pitching also.
Wish more people realized that. Good read, very good read.
(I didn’t realize Guillen was that bad though.)
Oh, and for what its worth, in a tiny sample, Broussard’s even worse than Ibanez. The whole concept of him as an outfielder is one the M’s just need to give up on.
Dave - in your opinion, would Wlad Balentien be an upgrade over Guillen in RF?
The Guillen thing is tough. The BIS data has him above average while UZR hates him. UZR’s the better statistic, and everyone’s noticed Guillen’s reduced range (including the Mariners, who replaced him with Jason Ellison on a nighly basis for two months), but I wonder how much of that was him favoring his ankles early in the season. I have a lot less conviction about his -10 than I do about Ibanez’s -20. I’m certain that Raul Ibanez is one of the very worst defenders in baseball. Guillen, I’m not as sure.
As for Wlad, well, he’s never gotten much in the way of great reviews defensively. He’s not horrible, but I don’t have any reason to expect him to be above average. With the way Guillen’s hitting, I don’t think making that switch makes any sense, honestly. I’m totally fine with Wlad being in Tacoma.
WOW! Thanks Dave, This is the stuff that makes my come back daily to read this blog. You guys ROCK!!!!
Great Post Dave. I like to see meaningful numbers about outfield defense. How big do you think the sample sizes have to be before they become dependable? I take it there is not enough data for Broussard, Bloomquist, and Ellison to be meaningful. Are you going to get into any of this on your KJR appearance today?
Agreed, this stuff is great and why I check the RSS feed about 20,000 times a day to see if a new post is up. What I don’t understand is that there was all this insider talk of Jones coming up right at the ASB which came from credible sources and had to be at least somewhat confirmed by somebody within the M’s (maybe someone lower down, but some people internally believed it would happen). But it didn’t happen, and doesn’t seem to be happening. It’s almost as if the decision was made at some point that they are NOT calling him up until September (or some predefined time we aren’t aware of) under any circumstances. As you are showing with your (and others) continued excellent work on the value just of the defense, the circumstances are already pretty dire. What is the reasoning behind him not up yet (and I’m wondering if you know of and/or can comment on the decision making process regarding this)?
To date in 2007, center fielders have converted 90% of their chances into outs. Right fielders are at 87%, and left fielders are at 85%.
Dave, did you make these calculations by hand or does THT provide positional averages for RZR somewhere? Also, are those AL averages or league-wide?
Whatever way you slice it, this Adam Jones situation has been horribly mishandled by the M’s.
Even if you think there is a case for not calling him up, all the endless speculation has to be just stressing him, his family, and the players he’d be replacing out to no end.
Make a freakin’ decision, and make everyone clear on what your decision is. Today.
Dave, any idea why Ichiro would be more likely to call off his LF or RF to make an OOZ catch than any other CFer? Is it because he thinks Ibanez/Guillen are incompetent? Just his personality? Is this something you’ve noticed when watching games (that Ichiro calls off his compatriots more than other CFers)?
If Wlad’s defense in right is that lack luster, but his bat seems to be at least as good as Jones; is there a chance he would make a decent DH or 1st base player? It just seems a waste to have him tearing up AAA while our DH, 1b, and LF players have been weak in the offensive department all year. Or is he primarily on the chopping block to be traded? (maybe Ortiz is a stretch, but DH seems like it might work for him – something we haven’t had since Edgar)
How big do you think the sample sizes have to be before they become dependable?
In general, you want several years of defensive data before you draw any firm conclusions. Thankfully, we have several years of data confirming what we’ve seen with our eyes - Ibanez is horrible, Ichiro is good, and Guillen used to be good but looks to have lost a step or five.
Dave, did you make these calculations by hand or does THT provide positional averages for RZR somewhere? Also, are those AL averages or league-wide?
Well, I didn’t do them by hand - I used a weighted average formula in excel to calculate the averages, and they’re for the majors, not just the AL. Commence mocking use of spreadsheets… now.
Dave, any idea why Ichiro would be more likely to call off his LF or RF to make an OOZ catch than any other CFer?
Because he can get there and most others can’t. Andruw Jones has had a similar effect on Braves corner outfielders and middle infielders through his career, taking all the discretionary balls hit into any area he can get to. But, because he had more range than everyone else, his idea of what was discretionary was different. Same with Ichiro. He can cover so much ground that he gets to those easy flyballs to left and right that most other center fielders don’t.
It’s not particularly valuable, but it is pretty remarkable.
If Wlad’s defense in right is that lack luster, but his bat seems to be at least as good as Jones…
It’s not. Don’t read too much into four months of Triple-A stats and decide that they’re equal hitters. Jones is a better hitter, and has been their entire careers.
is there a chance he would make a decent DH or 1st base player?
He’s never played first base, and that conversion doesn’t happen overnight. In general, you don’t move a guy from the outfield to first base unless you have to - they’d be better off just trading him for a LH hitting first baseman if that was the goal. In the end, I’m pretty sure Wlad gets traded, either in the next week or this winter. He just doesn’t have much of a future in Seattle, thanks to the current crop of players on hand.
Just wanted to say, “Great post.” Love this kind of stuff.
#10 Not sure what you mean by defense being underrated in football. Most any MSM commentator or writer will continuously spout, “Defense wins championships, you must stop the run to win the Super Bowl,” and other such cliches that can be disproven. (Take a look at footballoutsiders.com.)
Also, someone wondered on the game thread whether we can start count the Kendall trade as the start of trade season. As a Cubs fan, can we just forget that trade never happened, and never mention it again? Thanks for understanding.
Fun post…wow, quantifying outfield defense. Now that is how you make more informed personnel decisions. Well done.
And honestly, Wlad’s a bad fit for Safeco. The field is death on RH power hitters. The guy’s going to have a much more productive career elsewhere. The M’s just have to make sure they get equal value back.
And Dave: Spreadsheets are awesome. I use ‘em all the time for all kinds of stuff. Did you know that you can kludge Excel into hex-map type configurations for board games? Yeah. And you can use them to do all kinds of probability calculations. CRITBINOM is your friend.
Why, yes, I might be a bigger nerd than Dave. Slap that label on.
And honestly, Wlad’s a bad fit for Safeco. The field is death on RH power hitters.
It’s a bad fit for RH pull power hitters.
Jose Guillen, for instance, is doing just fine at Safeco. Why? Only about 1/4 of his flyballs are to left field. He mostly hits the ball to center, and then his distribution between pull and opposite field balls are pretty similar. He’s a guy with good opposite field power who can drive the ball and be successful in Safeco Field.
Bret Boone was the same way. Edgar Martinez also had the ability to spray the ball all over the field, and he was fine in Safeco for the most part. This isn’t to say that these types of hitters won’t be hurt by Safeco - they will. Just not as much as the guys who try to yank everything to left field. Yes Kenji, I’m looking at you.
Adam Jones, by the way, falls into this group of hitters. He hits twice as many balls to center field as he does to left, and his LF/RF split is about the same as Guillen’s. Wlad is much more of a pull hitter.
Well, I didn’t do them by hand - I used a weighted average formula in excel to calculate the averages, and they’re for the majors, not just the AL. Commence mocking use of spreadsheets… now.
Well my abacus was taking me a while to verify. Thanks.
Thanks for the correction, Dave. Yes, you’re right.
Good to hear that Adam Jones nails the ball to all fields. That’s the kind of guy the M’s need.
Among many good posts lately, this one is the best. If anyone in the front office is reading this blog, please, please, please show it to Bavasi!!!
OK, you’ve put numbers to confirm what was visually obvious, as much as Ibanez hustles (and he does), he cannot cover the field. It does beg the question as to why the M’s have not brought Jones up. Have they said?
Dave,
How much longer will the M’s stick with the current starting 9? Do you think this mini-collapse will do anything to motivate them?
I think another reason it’s not such a big deal if they call up Jones to play right instead of left, despite Safeco’s particular configuration, is that in most other parks RF is the more difficult position, right? So, shouldn’t be such a bad thing, considering in many games they play, the LFer won’t be in cavernous Safeco LF.
Also, is there a place where hitter stats are broken down by month and handedness together? I remember thinking earlier in the year that Guillen and Ibanez were actually a platoon made in heaven, but Guillen hasn’t had much in the way of a platoon split over his career (and Ibanez appears finished no matter who he is facing), so maybe Guillen’s early difficulties with RHP were a coming-back-from-injury fluke? So I’m wondering if his July numbers show a big split. It seems now like resting him against particularly tough righties might be sufficient.
As always, my question is, how long and how badly does Ibanez have to suck before he loses his golden boy status with the front office?
But Ichiro’s ballhogging DOES penalize Guillen and Ibanez, by depriving them of easy in-zone chances to pump up their out percentages with, AND by depriving them of out of zone chances of their own. Who’s to say that with a more restrained CF, both Ibanez and Guillen wouldn’t have significantly better numbers in both percentage of balls caught and in OOZ?
Are all the OOZ balls from the other outfielders? I would assume they’re taking some balls in the outer areas of the infielders’ zones as well, both from range and from situations where runners are being held on, for instance.
Are there figures for the outfield as a group, not dividing them L-C-R? How do the M’s rate that way? By your reckoning it should be low; is that borne out?
How much of Broussard’s (or any occasional outfielder’s) rating comes from the plain fact that ANYONE coming in for a game or an inning is going to shy away from Ichiro?
But Ichiro’s ballhogging DOES penalize Guillen and Ibanez, by depriving them of easy in-zone chances to pump up their out percentages with, AND by depriving them of out of zone chances of their own. Who’s to say that with a more restrained CF, both Ibanez and Guillen wouldn’t have significantly better numbers in both percentage of balls caught and in OOZ?
This is adjusted for in UZR. If you want the nuts and bolts, Mitchel has written extensively about how UZR is calculated, and there are a ton of links to writing on these subjects in the Evaluating Defense post in the USSM Orientation up top.
Are there figures for the outfield as a group, not dividing them L-C-R? How do the M’s rate that way? By your reckoning it should be low; is that borne out?
I linked to the raw data. You can do whatever you want with it - add it, multiply it, tie it in a bow - your call.
How much of Broussard’s (or any occasional outfielder’s) rating comes from the plain fact that ANYONE coming in for a game or an inning is going to shy away from Ichiro?
None. Broussard’s rating comes from the fact that he’s a first baseman who they suck in the outfield.
“Ball-hog” is a bad sounding term but is not a bad thing here. The CF’er is the guy in charge out there. To avoid collisions, a good CF will call off everyone and get what he can. It is his job, not a selfish thing. Interesting note, if you remember when Reed was in CF, Ichiro routinely called him off and took plays. It was a subtle sign of disrespect.
In the interest of being objective and considering all the facts, I noticed that you don’t account for offensive production or arm strength.
I would be interested to know how the current M’s outfielders compare to the rest of the league in offensive production. How many runs above the average do they account for. All that you have included is their inabilities on defense.
In order to be fair, I think Ibanez and Guillen’s run production should be factored in. How many runs does Guillen’s arm save? Not only in just assists but also in respect? Arm strength and accuracy are also incluced in defense.
The reason they let Cameron get away was because they wanted offensive production from that position.
I’m all for pitching, defense, and fundementals, but you do have to score to win games.
As always, my question is, how long and how badly does Ibanez have to suck before he loses his golden boy status with the front office?
Apparently he has to suck a lot more than he has so far.
McLaren is going to have to make the decision to make a trade and sell that decision to whoever he reports to, I don’t think we can expect Bavasi to release or trade Ibanez on his own.
Based on what we’ve seen of McLaren’s randomized lineup decisions so far, I am anything but optimistic.
Fish. In a barrel.
In the interest of being objective and considering all the facts, I noticed that you don’t account for offensive production or arm strength.
The title of the post is “Outfield Defense”. It should not surprise you that offense is not part of defense. And, also, please note that explicitly stated in the post is the fact that UZR accounts for arm strength.
All that you have included is their inabilities on defense.
The post is called “Outfield Defense”.
In order to be fair, I think Ibanez and Guillen’s run production should be factored in.
The post is called “Outfield Defense”.
How many runs does Guillen’s arm save? Not only in just assists but also in respect? Arm strength and accuracy are also incluced in defense.
This is included in UZR, as stated in the post.
The reason they let Cameron get away was because they wanted offensive production from that position.
The reason they let Cameron go is because they didn’t understand how valuable he was.
I’m all for pitching, defense, and fundementals, but you do have to score to win games.
I’m all for people reading the posts, then not submitting comments that say the same thing 8 times.
In #36, I meant to type that “McLaren is going to have to make the decision to make a starting lineup change”.
As others have pointed out, they could platoon Ibanez with someone (Vidro or Sexson), and they wouldn’t have to release him. At least, not immediately.
Dave, have you ever tried S+ or R (similar to S+ and free) for computing statistics? Quite a bit more powerful than excel.
[You need to take the hint and stop calling Adam Jones "Pacman" - your comments will just be deleted from here on out.]
Is there something else he could be proving in AAA ball? His weakness is SO%, could it be they want that brought up?
With Ichiro in center, LF and RF aren’t premium defensive positions. The premium positions are all filled with gloves: Lopez, Betancourt, Kenji, Ichiro, and Beltre (3B- less so).
The M’s should at least bring in Jones to do what broussard, bloomquist, or ellison is doing now. Get him some at bats and give him a shot in low leverage situations…
Please don’t call him Pacman.
With Ichiro in center, LF and RF aren’t premium defensive positions. The premium positions are all filled with gloves: Lopez, Betancourt, Kenji, Ichiro, and Beltre (3B- less so).
20 runs below average is 20 runs below average. The whole concept of defense only mattering at specific spots is ridiculous and wrong.
35 (flippy) - Why the hell would you consider offensive numbers in a defensive stat?
It’s people like you that continue to rob amazing defenders of Gold Gloves, and why the award is a joke until corrected.
Excuse my being rash, but for crying out loud.
Soooo. This post was about Outfield Defense?
Seriously though, the FO makes me want to pound my head into a wall every time I see Raul trot out to LF. My fear though, is they bring Jones up when they have the call ups, and then use him as they’ve used Ellison. blarg.
35 (flippy) - Also, they got rid of Cameron to get offensive production from that position? Really? From Jeremy Reed?
It’s obvious to me that flippy is some Mariners FO person in disguise.
5- Sexon is the best defensive first baseman on the team because he is tall, the infield would have a ton more errors if broussard or ibanez were the first basseman.
I think that was a great post Dave I havn’t actually seen jonees play, so I don’t know where I would put him, If he has a strong arm we should put him in right, move guillen to left, and be done with it.
Dave:
Two questions:
1. I get that arm strength in included in UZR and in #38 you seem to be saying arm accuracy is too, but I can’t tell for sure from the text of the exchange. Without asking you to go into detail already covered by Mitchell, can you confirm or clarify?
2. I think what people want to understand is if Ichiro has an accuracy advantage that justifies his OOZ catches or “ball hog effect.” I.E. does it serve the M’s defense better when Ichiro calls, say, Raul off because Ichiro has a better chance of preventing a run once the ball is caught than Raul does? Could you comment on that?
I’m pretty sure that the “Sexson has run prevention value that we can’t see because he makes it easier for the other infielders to throw to him accurately” topic has been done in great detail here, also.
Basically, it’s not the big factor that you think it is, and it doesn’t make up for the black hole that his bat has been for over half a season now.
40 - Pacman?
Please don’t link Adam Jones to some other idiot just because they have the same name.
Also, what does “Beltre (3B- less so)” mean?
Adam Jones needs to have been brought up a month ago to play full time. Period.
Sexon is the best defensive first baseman on the team because he is tall, the infield would have a ton more errors if broussard or ibanez were the first basseman.
Richie Sexson is the worst defensive everyday first baseman in baseball. We refuted the whole tallness myth a few weeks ago.
I get that arm strength in included in UZR and in #38 you seem to be saying arm accuracy is too, but I can’t tell for sure from the text of the exchange. Without asking you to go into detail already covered by Mitchell, can you confirm or clarify?
Arm strength and accuracy only have value in that they lead to outs and reduced bases taken by opposing runners. These things are quantifiable, and are included in the UZR formula.
Does it serve the M’s defense better when Ichiro calls, say, Raul off because Ichiro has a better chance of preventing a run once the ball is caught than Raul does?
I think most of these discretionary fly balls are more like infield popups - they’re going to be outs 95% of the time anyways, and it really doesn’t matter who catches them in most cases. Ichiro takes charge because he can.
I’ll just throw in that, taken as an aggregate, the Mariners have one of the worst defenses in the league. They convert only 68.4% of batted balls in play into outs, which makes them 4th worst in baseball. You can distribute the blame for that horrible performance however you see fit, but just looking completely subjectively at the players on the field it’s pretty clear where the blame lies.
Also, they got rid of Cameron to get offensive production from that position? Really? From Jeremy Reed?
No - they moved Winn to CF and put Ibañez in LF. The switch offensively was Ibañez for Cameron.
Defensively, they replaced on outstanding CF with a mediocre CF and replaced an outstanding LF (Winn in LF was outstanding as a LF) with a brutal LF. This was done by a team whose home field has the most expansive LF and CF areas in the League. That team also had a “pitch-to-contact” pitching staff that was also among the most fly-ball oriented staffs in baseball.
It was a prescription for disaster. It was almost guaranteed that the modest offensive improvement generated by swapping Ibañez for Cameron in the lineup would be swamped by the degenerated team defense.
When Safeco opened, the M’s (and everyone else in baseball) knew that one of the main keys to success at this ballpark was having outfielders that could cover a lot of ground. Pat Gillick and Lou Piniella seemed to understand this concept. The failure to either recognize this or to assemble a group of players with the skills required is just another appalling example of this organization’s stubbornness and complete inability to analyze/judge/be realistic about talent.
Sometimes, you can get away with crappy defense options here and there.
Remember in like 2001 (or around then) when there was this rumor that the M’s would stick John Olerud in left field during interleague games so they could play Edgar at first, and not lose eigther bat?
As fun as it would have been to see a helmeted left fielder run around aimlessly for fly balls, and a no-kneed first baseman pray for the ball to be hit somewhere else, thank goodness it didn’t happen. I’d like to hope it was Lou telling the FO they could stick it before he’d let that happen.
The Mariners aren’t going to win 116 games this year, so continuing to run poor defenders out to places they don’t belong is an even worse idea now.
Exhibit A: Manny Ramirez.
52 (Steve Nelson) - Good call. I remember that Randy Winn guy now. He wasn’t that huge of an offensive upgrade either, though.
I was just furious at that guy’s post and perhaps the worst offensive center fielder we’ve had since Cammy left jumped into my mind.
55 (robbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb) - Touche. Especially at Fenway. I’d hate to see him play 82 games at Safeco at anything other than DH, though.
Manny being Manny is the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. You can get away with it because he crushes the ball on the other side of things.
If Manny’s a -30 OF with the glove (where does he come in at per season, Dave?) but his RC on offense is +130 (which is right around the talent level he’s demonstrated the last few years) then he’s still a huge net positive for the team.
Dave, if Ichiro has a very high total of Out of Zone catches, but is only good in his own zone and not extraordinary — I take it that’s what the data suggests right now, correct me if I’m wrong — does it suggest that he might struggle a bit in aspects of outfield play that don’t involve range, such as jump on the ball and routes? Or is it too small a sample size to need any explanation?
Manny’s defense is a challenge because of the weirdness of the Green Monster. He’s terrible, no doubt, but he’s not the -40 that some non-park adjusted defensive stats will spit out. I’d have him around -20 or -25, personally - I think he’s marginally worse than Ibanez, though not much worse.
His offense, in any given year, is generally +50 runs above average, so he’s still quite the valuable player. I made a long argument for the M’s to acquire him last winter and stick him at DH. Instead, we got Turbo.
Dave - Thank you so very much for this post. I had been wanting to see some numbers on Guillen and I got them. You rock!
I am such a huge fan of baseball that I have to bite my tongue when I am at home about how frustrating this team is. I made the mistake of complaining one night and my lovely wife suggested I give up my season tickets to save us thousands of $$ since it was making me so mad. Point being, I appreciate this forum as a place to vent and share. Thanks!
does it suggest that he might struggle a bit in aspects of outfield play that don’t involve range, such as jump on the ball and routes? Or is it too small a sample size to need any explanation?
Keep in mind that the data suggests he’s average compared to other center fielders on balls in his zone, but center fielders are, by in large, terrific defenders, most of whom can’t hit at all. Darin Erstad, for instance, is a great defensive player, but he’s obviously not Ichiro with a bat in his hands.
49-
OK OK, no more Pacman. I am not comparing, it’s just funny, thats all. It is a cool name too, I mean, great game. OK I won’t use it though.
I said less so Beltre because 3B is less premium than CF, 2B, C, and SS. I do not mean because Beltre’s glove is lacking. I LOVE Beltre’s glove (not so sure what the metrics say but he seems great from watching), and he makes it look really sexy, which numbers aside, we watch to be entertained right?
Man, remember that dive on a line drive that bounced off Beltre’s glove last night and he picked it up with his non-glove hand off a bounce. I mean that line drive is almost always a base hit and Beltre couldn’t stop it but what an effort. He completely sacrifices his body day in and day out for this team.
42, dave,
I see.. 20 runs is 20 runs below average at any position. What I wonder is, since there are more plays to make or blow to say, SS, it is possible for an SS to have more impact defensively (thus the premium position moniker). Is this reflected in the standard deviatio of runs above/below average for SS’s? Or is the fact that only the better fielders play at that position enough to offset the larger # of plays. In short, One would think that if you played a monkey at SS he could potentially be a lot more runs below average than a monkey at LF because there are more plays to screw up and give up runs. But since the monkeys at SS are better than those at LF on every team in practice the effect is offset..
What I wonder is, since there are more plays to make or blow to say, SS, it is possible for an SS to have more impact defensively (thus the premium position moniker).
In a hypothetical world where teams didn’t realize that shortstops field more balls than any other position, yes, they could have more of an impact. But, again, this goes back to relativity of value - a player provides value to his team by helping them win moreso than his peers on the other teams. Since every team in baseball realizes that defense at SS is important, the spread of talent at the position isn’t much different than left field, right field, or whatever.
In terms of value, all we really care about is runs saved above average, and average is a creation of the players the other teams choose to put at the same position. If the Cardinals decided to stick Chris Duncan at shortstop, well, then Adam Everett would become relatively more valuable defensively. But in general, teams don’t do that.
That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t align your defenders to maximize their skills if you can. The current outfield alignment is better than flipping Ichiro back to right and sticking Ibanez in center field. But, again, that’s not a practical issue that teams face, for the most part. And the concept of some positions having significantly more defensive value than others is what leads to mistakes like leaving Jones in Tacoma because “left field is an offensive position”.
* Some teams are just terrible at evaluating defense and leave horrible players at positions long after their shelf life at that spot has expired. Griffey should have been moved out of center five years ago, and Michael Young has never been a shortstop, despite the Rangers continual desire to play him there.
Why is there such confusion about where Adam Jones should play if he ever gets brought up from Tacoma? Obviously he should be replacing Ibanez, there’s no debate there. But why are people so confused about whether he should play RF or LF?
He has much better range than Guillen so he should be playing the outfield position that requires the most range for any given game. Left requires more range than right does in Safeco. So Jones should be playing LF for home games. When they’re on the road playing in a park where more range is required in RF then Jones should be playing RF.
Where is it written in stone that you can only play someone in RF of LF and never switch them? As long as the defender understands that balls hit to right and left field tend to spin in opposite directions and then takes this into account I don’t see what the problem would be.
Sure, Jones has a great arm, but Guillen’s is pretty darn good as well. So, that argument doesn’t really fly with me. I just don’t see arm strength resulting in that big of a difference. I suppose in cookie-cutter parks, like Toronto, Jones and his superior arm can play RF. Yes, this would require actual thinking on the manager’s part, but this just doesn’t seem all that complicated to me.
So Jones should be playing LF for home games. When they’re on the road playing in a park where more range is required in RF then Jones should be playing RF.
I’m not sure this is worth the hassle. I might do it in a playoff series, where every single play had drastically magnified value. But, players hate this kind of stuff - they’ll go along with it grudgingly, but alternating between left and right field depending on the stadium isn’t something that Guillen or Jones is going to be particularly happy with.
And, as noted in the post, the distribution of fly balls to left and right isn’t drastically different. Yes, LF in Safeco is more important than RF is, as we’ve discussed many times, which is why I’d just make Jones the everyday left fielder and leave it at that. The value you’d get from flip-flopping them on the road isn’t going to be more than a run or two the whole year, and these guys are still people. Such a marginal upgrade has to be weighed against the cost of annoying the players.
You also have to consider that the ball curves differently to RF and LF. That’s a tough adjustment to ask a young player to make when he is still working on making a whole lot of other adjustments. Keep things as simple as possible for him when he’s first up.
robbbbbb wrote:
Isn’t this exactly what the DH is for? So that your +130 offensive juggernauths (not just Manny; think Edgar in his prime) don’t see their overall value to the team dragged down by -30 or worse defensive value?
Seriously, the only reason the BoSox let “Manny be Manny” in LF is that they have a relative duplicate in Big Papi that they need to get in the line-up (not to mention his Mini-Me, Yoooooouk).
Honestly, as good offensively as Manny is, the Red Sox would have been wiser to have traded him sometime within the last few years - and they sure tried. They could have split his salary up into component parts that would have made up for Manny’s net run production, on both sides of the ball.
Probably the best post I’ve read all season. Cuts to the core of the M’s problems, not only this season, but since 2003.
I was going to try and respond to Dave and Ralph, but then I found myself comparing major league outfielders to myself when I played in high school and just decided to delete everything I had typed.
Basically, I agree. What my argument really comes down to is that the difference in arm strength between Guillen and Jones isn’t worth wasting Jones’ range in RF. And that Jones should be playing LF right now. Today. Two months ago….blarg
Its pretty apparent that Guillen has put up bad defensive numbers because he has lost a few steps. Do you think this is because he’s getting old? I’m leaning toward his nagging injuries. In the second half I think we should be able to expect him to turn in an average performance which like you said would allow him to end the year around -10 but in my opinion this would be almost solely because of his injuries. If he can avoid the injuries next year he may have value in the OF next year if he can become an average OF again and provide similar offensive performance. As much as I want to see if Wlad can cut it next year I don’t think the team is going to suffer if Guillen is back.
For a historical perspective, how do Ichiro, Cameron and Griffey compare in defensive value, when each was at their defensive peak?
Cameron >> Ichiro >>>>> Griffey, with the caveat that the advanced defensive metrics we have now aren’t available for the mid-90s. But considering how terrible Griffey has been in his 30s, it’s very unlikely that he was as good as people thought he was in his 20s.
So did Griffey’s diving plays and offense give him all those GG’s (I don’t value Gold Gloves), and doesn’t that mean Cameron was like a top 10 all time defensive CF?
Although, Griffey must have a fairly unprecendented injury history that nullifies some of the accuracy of using his current defense to find his previous value.
It might be a fun little study to look at how good GG winners actually are and if they actually mean anything at all.
Griffey’s combination of offense, personality, and highlight reel plays made him easy to paint as a great defender. Looking back, it doesn’t appear as though there’s any real evidence that he was, indeed, ever a great defender.
I have no idea who the 10 best all time defensive CFs are, but I’m sure Mike Cameron isn’t among that group. There are just way too many no-hit jackrabbit types who are really good fielders for Cameron to be in that kind of class.
If I recall correctly, the (flawed) defensive metrics of the time thought Griffey was overrated, and this was derided and used by some to dismiss those metrics.
If somebody were to seriously compile a list of all-time best defensive center fielders, I would find it more interesting if they restricted the list to people who had some semblance of a full-time major league career, which would exclude a lot of the jackrabbits. I’m most interested in, Who were the best defensive center fielders who actually played, i.e, whose defensive skills mattered to the game.
I guess we can’t really answer that either, though, without being able to use better defensive metrics on the past.
I believe Gold Gloves are a very accurate measure. Of what, you ask?
Does the player make hustle plays, Web Gems and appear on ESPN often?
Does the player play in a large or popular market?
Does the player contribute offensively?
Do the player’s replica jersey’s sell well?
In these areas the Gold Gloves are very accurate. They are golden gloves after all. They’re bling. They’re not awarded to the best defensive player at a certain position. They’re awarded to the flashiest most popular player at that position.
Typo city up there in my previous post, sorry.
Also, sometimes Gold Gloves are deserved I think. I was just being sarcastic. Sometimes they get it right (see Jones, Andruw), sometimes they get it wrong (see Jeter, Derek).
“But considering how terrible Griffey has been in his 30s, it’s very unlikely that he was as good as people thought he was in his 20s.”
Possible, but that’s after getting older and having quite a few injuries.
Possible, but that’s after getting older and having quite a few injuries.
Everyone gets older. If Griffey was a great defender in his mid-20s, say +10 to +15 runs as a center fielder, but 10 years later, he’s now a -20 as a right fielder (and something like -35 as a center fielder), then we’re thinking he lost something like 50 runs of defensive value due to aging and injuries.
Compare that with Darin Erstad, who hasn’t exactly been a specimen of health, and has lost about 10 runs of defensive value as he’s aged.
I just don’t see it. I think the far more likely answer is that Griffey was never a great defensive center fielder to begin with.
People pay to see Griffey. He probably should have been DH’ing for years now but people like seeing the guy. Griffey’s bat, highlights, videogames, shoes, etc. all contributed to his GG. Who people want to see in the outfield is an aggregate of many, many factors.
I was one of those in the 90’s who almost got beat up by suggesting Griffey be placed in LF. One of the reasons he appeared to be above average was that he never dropped the ball. If he got his mitt on the baseball he had a knack for making the out. That being said, he covered alot less ground than most people thought. His reactions/jumps on the ball were fair but not great. The reality was that Griffey was never fast, and therefore was more suited to playing a corner OF position.
Sec 108 said:
Agreed. Sort of. Griffey was better than average in his mid-20’s, IMO, but the interesting thing for those of us who watched a lot of both Griffey and then Cameron manning the same space was . . . Cameron just got to a lot more balls than Griffey did, and he made the catches that Griffey dove for pretty effortlessly. To this day, I don’t think I’ve seen a CF who took a more direct and immediate route to a ball than Cameron did.
Girffey . . . Cameron . . . Ichiro.
All I know is that if I was starting a team, I’d pick Griffey in his prime as my CF. You guys can pick Ichiro or Cameron (in their prime, too, of course) for your teams.
All other things being equal, my team is going to beat your team. Like a drum.
Ghug: Sexon is the best defensive first baseman on the team…
Dave: Richie Sexson is the worst defensive everyday first baseman in baseball.
Sadly, these two statements are not mutually exclusive.
The M’s let Cameron go because they thought the $7 Million per he was making was too much to pay for a guy who’s yearly production was 25 HR, 85 RBIs and 150 K’s. However, they think a guy who hits 35 HRs, 120 RBIs and strikes out 160 times a season is worth $11M a year.
Lost in their calculations were two facts. One, Cameron was actually about the same offensively compared to others playing his position (OPS+ 104 compared to AL CFs ‘00 through ‘03) as Sexson is compared to his position (OPS+ 103 compared to AL Firstbasemen from ‘05 through ‘07. Even if you leave off the horrible ‘07 he’s having, he’s at 108 compared to AL 1B). And two, Cameron was a tremendous defender at a position that is difficult to fill, while Sexson is a marginal defender at one of the easiest positions to fill.
Teams that don’t understand relative offensive value to the position and instead just pay for Home Runs and RBIs have woes. Teams that don’t understand defensive value have woes. Teams that do both have lots of woes.
We’re talking defense here, Nick. Overall value is a completely different question. Cameron comes in a distant third then (but is in the conversation because of his defensive value). I’d probably agree with you on picking Griffey in his prime if you were starting a team, but a team built around Ichiro would be damn good, too.
87:
Oh, this is a challenge that I have to put numbers to.
On the offensive side, we have the following best RC for each player. Their best season:
Griffey: 152 (1997 M’s, an MVP year.)
Ichiro: 137 (2004 M’s, the year he broke the hits record.)
Cameron: 99 (2006 Padres/1999 Reds, also 98 with the M’s in ‘01.)
Unless Cameron was an out-of-this-world fielder, then he falls out of this discussion.
If Griffey’s an average fielder, and Ichiro’s +10 with the glove, then those are two awfully close seasons in terms of value. “Beat like a drum”? Nope. People fail to realize just how valuable Ichiro is, because he doesn’t hit a ton of homers.
All I know is that if I was starting a team, I’d pick Griffey in his prime as my CF. You guys can pick Ichiro or Cameron (in their prime, too, of course) for your teams.
All other things being equal, my team is going to beat your team. Like a drum.
It doesn’t matter how many times we say it, there will always be people like you who vastly overrate home runs and underrate everything else. You take 1993 Griffey, I’ll take 2004 Ichiro, and at best, the split will be something like 51-49. It’s really a push.
“I just don’t see it. I think the far more likely answer is that Griffey was never a great defensive center fielder to begin with.”
Do we have any defensive stats from say 1999-2000? (before the major injuries)
Stealing from Wikipedia, “injuries forced Griffey to miss 260 out of 486 games from 2002 through 2004″
I don’t think it’s correct to infer that he was a average defender (or below) based on his 2007 stats when you consider that he’s 37 years old.
It’s kind of like saying Barry Bonds was an overrated defender in his prime because he hasn’t been able to run for the past 5 years.
I’m not inferring that he was average or below. I’m inferring that he wasn’t great.
Pete:
I know we’re talking defense. Having seen Griffey play in-person 300+ times, Cameron 100+ times, and Ichiro 200+ times, I pick Griffey.
In my opinion, running down Griffey’s defense is simply contempt for the familiar. It’s just about impossible to make a valid statistical argument, so I’m going on what my eyeballs tell me. OF the three, I rank Ichiro’s defense a distant third, with Cameron a close second. I think Griffey at his best ran down and caught more balls.
This is a great analysis of where the team went wrong. we are not using safeco to our benefit at all.
It would be nice to have Jones and ichiro in the same outfield. ichiro can “ballhog” even more towards RF knowing left and left center are covered by someone other then Raul. Does this make our outfield almost as good as cameron, ichiro, winn?
Awesome - it’s the “evidence is irrelevent, take my word on faith argument”. Haven’t seen that one recently.
Arguing with the pro-Griffey camp about almost anything is useless. It’s just not worth it. Nick can believe whatever he wants - lets not waste a thread on this.
Dave, what do you think the chances are that Guillen gets traded or gets next year’s option picked up? What would you do with him?
Dave, what do you think the chances are that Guillen gets traded or gets next year’s option picked up? What would you do with him?
He’s almost certainly going to sign an extension that overrides the option. He’s told the team he doesn’t want to play on a year-to-year basis anymore, and they want to keep him. I expect he’ll re-sign for something like 2/20 with a team option/buyout on a 3rd year.
Personally, I’d keep him through the end of the season, pick up his option, trade him, and let someone else give him the multiyear contract he’s looking for.
Do you think Guillen’s defense will improve to average next year if he’s healthy?
Would the be wise to revisit putting Cameron in a M’s uniform this offseason? Jones/Cameron/Ichiro OF
It’s very unusual to see a guy significantly improve his defense as he ages. Could he be -5 instead of -10 next year? Maybe. But I think at some point, we need to accept the fact that he’s in his 30s, his body has taken a beating, and he doesn’t have the same range he once had.
Cameron was a great defensive CF. He’s not anymore.
“Awesome - it’s the “evidence is irrelevent, take my word on faith argument”. Haven’t seen that one recently.”
Unfortunately we don’t have much evidence to go by when it comes to defense in the 90’s.
Were there any decent systems for measuring defense before Griffey got traded to the Reds (excuse my ignorance).
Nick - You are entitled to your opinion as am I. I just did the math and I went to over 400 games at the Kingdome in the 90’s alone. Yes, yes, I had no life. My eyes told me one thing, yours told you another. I am okay with disagreeing.
My subjective opinion on Griffey got me in alot of trouble with M’s fans in the 90’s, but I stand by it. Our pitchers all of a sudden became much better once Griffey left. Granted it coincided with the move to Safeco, so the stats become muddled there.
Well, as Dave says, engaging in this argument is pointless, but anyway:
Nick, I’ve probably seen each of those guys in person as many times as you claim to have, as well. So what do we do when what my eyes tell me isn’t the same thing yours tell you? There are ways to objectively measure the differences, and those objective measures often don’t match our subjective perception of what’s impressive. that doesn’t mean we should ignore them.
Honestly, people love to see guys who dive for balls, and nine times out of ten will tell you the guy who dives for balls is the better defender. Unless you try to measure which defender - the guy who generally glides to the ball and makes an easy catch, or the guy who more often struggles against his range and dives to make (or not make) the catch - and see who is catching which balls where, you’re just guessing. And probably letting your impression of the “great” diving catch skew your opinion.
I stray sometimes from pure stats people, because I often think it helps to have some background of playing the game to appreciate things that UZR and RF and so forth don’t necessarily measure (or these days, maybe they do - I haven’t kept up with defensive stat measures as much as I should), like routes and jumps. THAT’S the kind of thing I find impressive, much more so than diving to make a catch, and it’s the one thing you have to be there to appreciate (TV doesn’t cut it). And of the three, I think Griffey was the worst at those kinds of things, and Cameron the best.
In the end, this is a choice I’d love to have, because they were all somewhere between very good and great defenders in their prime in my book.
Dave– I agree with your assessment. I was thinking that would be the neighborhood offer they would give Guillen and I think its absurd. I loved the deal when he came in at 5.5m for this year, but 10/yr is crazy for an OF with his speed.
The other thing I don’t like about resigning Guillen is that essentially dooms Ballentine’s days as a Mariner due to his lack of options. I would hate to see him ride the bench– and I don’t think the ballclub would do that. I am surprised he hasn’t been moved yet.
Dave, I understand UZR. I was referring to the percentages and actual counts you gave:
Raul Ibanez: 148 opportunities, 117 outs, 79%, 22 “out of zone” plays
Ichiro Suzuki, 226 opportunities, 204 outs, 90%, 66 “out of zone” plays
Jose Guillen: 152 opportunities, 135 outs, 89%, 20 “out of zone” plays
Are these adjusted numbers, or raw data? Because my point wasn’t that Ibanez was somehow a magically good fielder, but that if Ichiro was taking, say, 20 balls out of Ibanez’s zone that Ibanez could have caught, he would have 137 outs in 168 opportunities, which is 82% (assuming that Ibanez would in fact have caught them all, which isn’t a given).
I’m certainly not challenging your conclusion. I want to see Jones as much as anyone, and Ibanez out of there.
Unfortunately we don’t have much evidence to go by when it comes to defense in the 90’s.
We have some. It’s sketchy, but it’s not nothing. It all points to him not being great. There’s no evidence that he was great.
After thinking it over some more, a better comparison for Griffey is probably Jim Edmonds. They’re the same age, both have had serious injury issues, and both were in their defensive primes during the same years.
From 2003 to 2007, UZR has Jim Edmonds as a -4 CF, a total of -12 runs over 1270 expected outs.
From 2003 to 2007, UZR has Ken Griffey as -46 as a CF, a total of -113 runs over 923 expected outs.
Its almost impossible for me to believe that injuries have racked Griffey so much more than Edmonds that the total decline could be on the level of 40 runs at this point in their careers if they were similar defenders 10 years ago.
“Cameron >> Ichiro >>>>> Griffey, with the caveat that the advanced defensive metrics we have now aren’t available for the mid-90s. But considering how terrible Griffey has been in his 30s, it’s very unlikely that he was as good as people thought he was in his 20s.”
Dave,
I can see arguments for this “Griffey in his 30’s” based on his leg injuries and recent stats… but to say that it’s very unlikely that he was as good as people thought, is… well quite frankly, quite a stretch isn’t it? I mean if there isn’t a way to prove it…then how can you make that kind of a statement? We already know you don’t think he was that great of a player from prior threads. Do you have any defensive statistics that you’re basing that on?
I’ve never said Griffey wasn’t that great of a player. He’s a first ballot hall of famer, and you’ll never hear me argue otherwise. Let’s try not to put words in my mouth.
“The other thing I don’t like about resigning Guillen is that essentially dooms Ballentine’s days as a Mariner due to his lack of options.”
While, Guillen is less of a pull hitter I’d prefer to have Balentien in the outfield next year because he’d be much cheaper and doesn’t have a .685 OPS against RHP. I’d like to see an outfield with Jones in left, Ichiro in center, and Balentien in right.
What injuries has Edmonds had? Hammer toe & shoulder? Is there somewhere where I can find what injuries he’s had? I don’t think that compares with hamstring injuries. But then again…I’m just wanting to know what injuries both have had over time. Is there a website that keeps that kind of history?
It’s blog entries like this one from Dave that makes me want to cry. He’s sooooo right. When you think of the Winn-Cameron-Ichiro outfield we had a few years back, and how little thought seems to have gone into letting the first two go… Aughh! as Charlie Brown would say.
Sure, neither of them were perfect in every way, but they weren’t getting paid like ARod, either. (j/k)
Were either Winn or Cameron blocking the promotion of anybody in the minors at the time? Probably not. Did either of them have a couple more good years in them if they’d stayed? Probably. Were they going to be outrageously expensive for the times? Probably not.
And what’s worse, some of those other abysmal trades and free agent signings the M’s made to shore up the offense/defense at other positions might not have been made.
All of that would imply someone in the front office knew what they were doing, though…
Obviously I misunderstood you.
Let’s hope Dave Valle, Rick Rizzs, the other Ms broadcasters and anyone else who worships Griffey aren’t reading this post. I doubt they’d learn anything, and their brains would assplode!
Great work Dave.
BTW, Joel Pineiro was DFA’d by the Red Sox last Monday, and has decided to accept an optional assignment to Triple-A Pawtucket. He’ll pitch some extended innings there, and the thought is that he might be used as a spot/emergency starter late in the season for the Red Sox.
Every once in a while an ex-Mariners pitcher DOESN’T go on to do well with another team…
Dave,
You argue Griffey is a first round Hall of Famer, it would appear that Ichiro is cruising to such a fate…begs the question…if Mike Cameron is better than both of them defensively does he get any HOF consideration (since this is a Defensive Thread)?
When I was watching the Tigers feed of the M’s-Tigers series right after the All-Star break, the Tigers announcers were comparing Granderson’s and Ichiro’s defense in CF. Their conclusion was that Granderson was much better and that Ichiro played a lot deeper than many CFers and therefore let a lot of singles drop in front of him that Granderson would have gotten to.
The 90% out conversion number listed above for Ichiro certainly does not comport with their analysis. (Not that I am surprised that two announcers did not know what they were talking about.)
Anyone else think there is any legitimacy to the claim that Ichiro plays deeper than the average CFer? How about the claim that Granderson is better defensively than Ichiro?
117 - Bill Mazeroski aside, Cammy’s defense isn’t going to get him much HoF consideration. You still have to bring the lumber.
“raises the question”… begging the question is a logical fallacy (generally, a circular argument)
“Its almost impossible for me to believe that injuries have racked Griffey so much more than Edmonds that the total decline could be on the level of 40 runs at this point in their careers if they were similar defenders 10 years ago.”
Possibly, but it’s difficult to quantify injuries and measure their effect (except when the player in missing games). Edmonds missed about 20 games a year since 2000, while Griffey missed nearly more than half of a season 3 times and even in 01′ 05′ 06′ missed quite a few games.
Griffey may have not been a great defender but I think his legs have been thrashed since after the 2001 season and his numbers from 2003-2007 reflect that. Trying to figure out how good he really was is a pretty interesting question because his 10 gold gloves and highlight plays that of course make him seem like a “great” defender.
if Mike Cameron is better than both of them defensively does he get any HOF consideration (since this is a Defensive Thread)?
Only if defense counts for as much as offense in HOF voting. I forget, is Mark Belanger in the HOF?
if Mike Cameron is better than both of them defensively does he get any HOF consideration
Cammy was\is an outstanding defender and an average-plus hitter for the position. That works out to an above average player - an occasional All-Star, a solid guy to fill a position that’s tough to fill, but not a HOF candidate.
#119 mentioned Mazeroski. The only other HOF’ers that are in there primarily for defense that I can think of are Rabbit Maranville (who arguably shouldn’t be in the Hall), and Ozzie Smith.
Very few MVP’s got votes because of their defense, either.
Dave said:
It’s almost nit-picking to argue, but the premise that “since Griffey is so terrible now he must not have been as good as most thought then” and the “everybody ages” line of thinking is not something I can buy.
Having not seen the south side of thirty yet, young Mr. Cameron is not old enough to fully appreciate that Father Time does not treat each of us equally, and injuries hasten and exacerbate the cruel differences and variation that already exists. Griffey’s injuries since being traded (and to a lesser extent, while a Mariner) robbed him of his only great CF tools - decent speed and other-worldly athleticism. Drawing any kind of inference from what he is now is pointless, as is saying that his aging pattern will be anything like anybody else’s - especially given his injury history.
Having said that, I agree with the “Cameron >> Ichiro >>>>> Griffey” conclusion, even if I think there might be a couple fewer “>>’s” between Ichiro and Griffey, and believe Griffey was slightly better in his prime defensively than Dave does.
None of which really furthers the main purpose of Dave’s post, which is to point out what an enormous contribution Adam Jones could make over Raul, just defensively - which nobody in his right mind really would argue. It would probably be a small upgrade even if Jones hit like he did last year, and Raul hit like he did last year. The likelihood that Jones won’t, and the fact that Raul has come nowhere close to that, makes it the ultimate no-brainer.
“raises the question”… begging the question is a logical fallacy (generally, a circular argument)
We had that discussion, in some depth, a few weeks back. Short summary: the usage of “begs the question” to mean “raises the question” has (despite the howls of protest from some purists around here) become generally accepted.
The M’s continue to refuse to acknowledge the defensive upgrade they could make in LF. And yet they are 31-18 at home this year, in a ballpark where LF is so important. Go figure.
If only their home and road records were reversed, perhaps they would wonder why and come to the conclusion that their defense in LF is killing them. Wishful thinking, I know, but we’ve got to get Adam Jones up here somehow….
Having not seen the south side of thirty yet, young Mr. Cameron is not old enough to fully appreciate that Father Time does not treat each of us equally, and injuries hasten and exacerbate the cruel differences and variation that already exists.
I’m not sure which side is the south side, but Cameron is 34. I wonder if the people who want to bring him back don’t realize he’s that old??
Griffey never was a great outfielder. He wasn’t even better than the guy he replaced, Henry Cotto, who I still think is one of the more underrated defensive outfielders of all time. If the M’s could somehow hire Tony Larussa to coach their outfielders their problems would be solved.
I think Pete is talking about a different Mr. Cameron.
Well, I guess that settles the argument between linguistic prescription and description for all time.
So who’s gonna draft the open letter to McLaren/Bavasi about Adam Jones? Dave?
#132. Didn’t Geoff Baker already do that? And maybe Larry Stone, and Larry LaRue, and Art Thiel….
Trying to rate Griffey’s defense based on his performance from 2003 to 2007 is entirely specious. Injuries have made the man a realtive cripple comapred to what he did in the 90’s. Also, Jim Edmonds didn’t play on the Kingdome carpet 81 times a year.
As to me being swayed by Griffey’s proclivity for spectacular catches or home runs, that’s just insulting.
I don’t think the move is going to be made in the near future. They won’t bench Ibanez. They won’t bench Vidro when he’s hitting .302. Hopefully I’m wrong.
But quite possibly true. (rimshot)
Ralph Malph said:
And thehiddentrack said:
Indeed I was. I was tweaking Dave a bit, since when I first met him, I think he was on the north side of 20, and I am now just a wee bit to the NNE side of 50 these days.
I kid because I care, Dave. Once of these days, you’ll have creaks and pains in places you didn’t know you had, and I won’t say I told you so.
Nick said:
Honestly, Nick, so is the fairly heavy implication in your argument that your opinion counts more than others, simply because it’s yours, but I tried to be gracious enough not to mention that or take offense.
No offense taken. Agree to disagree?
Err, I mean no offense intended.
Perusing the BP fielding stats for Griffey and Cameron…
Taking Griffey’s age 23-27 seasons (1993-1997), he put up RAR2 numbers of 21, 11, 16, 23, and 26. An average of 19.4.
Taking Cameron’s age 24-28 seasons (1997-2001), he put up RAR2 numbers of 16, 23, 25, 29, and 34. An average of 25.4.
Allowing that these RAR2 numbers are not the final arbiters of their defense prowess, it looks like Cameron does have the edge.
Cotto was a guy that just looked like a ballplayer. He got hundreds of AB’s every year because he looked like he could hit. It could be that his fielding was similarly overrated, or it could be that he was really a great fielder, I don’t know. I do know that the Mariners were fooled into thinking he was a good player, though, as they gave him 1500 at bats and his lifetime OPS+ was 84.
And as to LaRussa, somehow I doubt he could teach Raul to run faster.
(I’m taking a hint from Dave and I’m not touching the Griffey thing, as it is pointless to discuss.)
Pete:
I think you need to dial down the sensitivity meter a bit. Where did I imply that my opinion counts for more than that of anyone else? Or does the mere fact that someone has an opinion contrary to your own mean that they must suffer from a case of self-importance?
say, did anyone mention the “Special to SI.com” piece by one Derek Zumsteg?
The question about sensitivity and validity of opinions on Griffey isn’t up for discussion in this thread. Any further posts on the subject will be deleted and the users will be moderated. Deal? Good.
Despite his lack of speed Griffey was a decent CF, Ichiro and Cameron have that speed and therefore make Griffey’s dives into routine. Griffey may have been overrated as a center fielder but if he had the speed of Ichiro Or Cameron he would have been as good, if not better.
If “pitching and defense wins championships”, why have statisticians historically, if you’ll pardon the expression, dropped the ball regarding defensive measures? Is it because of a lack of technology (especially until fairly recently), disagreement on what’s important/relevant, or what?
Which raises another question, if the above adage is the conventional wisdom (leaving aside its truth or falsity), and the M’s seem to follow CW more often than not, why haven’t we seen the Mariners factor it into their acquisitions recently? Or am I off base on my assumptions here?
It’s much harder to track defense in a statistical way.
Excellent post, Dave.
The thing that really strikes me about the issue is that it cannot possibly be considered hindsight.
I recall many discussions about how incredible and valuable that defense was, and how much it was contributing to the success of those teams.
(not to mention the discussions of how valuable Olerud’s defense was, along with some others)
That’s what makes the team’s near-complete disregard of defense lately so puzzling and depressing.
Of course, the fact that they chose deliberately and negligently to ignore defense in favor of offense is made many times by the fact that they aren’t getting the offense, either.
Mazeroski’s tearful “Defense matters.” was very true… but not much to Seattle, and only at one or two positions even then.
Also…
To the person that brought up defense in football… I don’t think that translates to baseball at all. Defense is very valued in football. I think the better comparison would be undervaluing linemen, or perhaps overvaluing pass rushers against solid stoppers. Something like that.
146 - I think the false assumption is your first line. I don’t think most of them would add the “and defense” when repeating that mantra.
It’s almost always “Pitching wins championships.” Sad to say.
In football, the saying is “Defense wins championships.” But in baseball they usually just say pitching.
141, I completely agree. Cotto’s skill in the outfield seems to have been mainly derived from that manly ass moustache he rocked. I miss the days when the M’s had flavor.
Dave if they did sign Guillen to an extension is there any possibility he would see time at DH? At least by 09 since we’re a bit cluttered still next year? (Slightly on topic since Guillen at DH would probably improve our Outfield Defense)
I’ve spent the whole afternoon browsing the Web hoping to find someone announcing that The Box is being brought up (dammit, I’ll use my own nickname if no one else will). Nothing.
Dead silence, indeed.
141, I completely agree. Cotto’s skill in the outfield seems to have been mainly derived from that manly ass moustache he rocked. I miss the days when the M’s had flavor.
Henry Cotto had an “ass moustache”? And it was “manly” at that? Wow, things I didn’t know…
Who says the M’s don’t have flavor? They’re souring right before our very eyes.
Good call msb. How aboutthe other piece by Derek?
Doh!
Seeing guillen at DH would be interesting. Guillen and Ibanez would both hit better at DH because all the running in the outfield won’t tire them out.
I wrote 145 before I saw 144 I am sorry, and I wont mention Griffey again.
Dave, what do analysts think about players that add power as they age by bulking up, thus sacrificing defensive range and quickness? Besides Bonds, A-Rod comes to mind as someone who has changed his body type from lean and strong to big and strong, accompanied by a decline in defensive value.
Is it best to evaluate A-Rod’s decision to exchange quickness for power by comparing the loss in defensive value (in runs) to the gain in offensive production (in runs)? It becomes sticky trying to define a career line based on our perceptions of his body type, but it would be pretty cool if defensive metrics could reflect those subtleties.
I’m wondering what team trainers should be encouraging their athletes to do. It seems like A-Rod was more valuable when he was a better defender, though it probably is less important since he switched positions. I’nm curious if analysts ever look at those kinds of trends.
So…Any thoughts on Geoff Baker’s assertion that he’d trade AJ for Dontrelle Willis straight up? (from an outfield defense/run prevention standpoint of course, wouldn’t want to get off topic)
In evaluating A-Rod’s decision (if it was actually a conscious decision) to trade quickness for power, one would have to factor in the dollar value of power vs. defense. As we all know, chicks dig the long ball.
Guillen and Ibanez would both hit better at DH because all the running in the outfield won’t tire them out.
Usually, I hear the opposite, that being a DH would make Ibanez a worse hitter.
So I checked.
Lifetime as a LF’er he’s .283-.342-.467
Lifetime as a DH he’s .275-.341-.428 (in 787 plate appearances, so not a small sample size)
He has hit better as a first baseman than as either LF or DH. But I suspect it really makes no meaningful difference on his hitting where or whether he plays in the field.
#152. Lauren said “…hoping to find someone announcing… Nothing. Dead silence, indeed.”
They’re all out on summer vacation, Lauren. No one’s in the office. Voice mail only until the first week of October…
.
Off the topic, but [deleted, off the topic]
Is there something specific the Mariners are waiting for that has to happen before bringing up Adam Jones? Does he have to get his AAA OPS back over 1.000?
Does Ibanez have to come up with a mystery injury?
Is there something specific the Mariners are waiting for that has to happen before bringing up Adam Jones? Does he have to get his AAA OPS back over 1.000? Does Ibanez have to come up with a mystery injury?
One of two things has to happen:
(1) The Mariners have to fall out of the race.
(2) September has to roll around.
Why isn’t Adam Jones here yet? Why do you mock me Lord?
#162: Wow, I wish I wouldn’t have read Baker’s blog today. I feel like I need to wash my eyes out with soap or something after reading that.
Worst blog entry he has every written. Or at least the worst one of his that I have read.
Not only trade AJ for Willis, but also thinks the set up spot in the bullpen is the major problem this team has.
Ok guys this was all my fault. I just officially dropped Raul Ibanez from my fantasy team in exchange for Adam Jones, sorry for the delay, the real world will be following suit shortly.
Well, he DID sorta back down saying Willis probably isn’t available, either straight up for Jones, or (ha-ha) for Clement or Balentien.
And he DID say more or less the M’s should fish or cut bait with Reitsma, calling them “pretenders” if they continue to fiddle around with the use of Reitsma/Green/Sherrill.
And he HAS whacked the M’s verbally on their continued stubbornness with the “carved in stone” lineup, particularly Ibanez/Sexson/Johjima.
And he mentions the word “quickly” on calling on the Mariners to act, but I had to laugh when Baker said, “this losing streak might be a good thing in that it’s underscored to management that change is needed.”
I think this losing streak is too subtle. The Mariners need a SIGN, like The Northern Lights hovering over Safeco tonight. Or A Close Encounter.
Great post Dave. These are the types of posts the Mariners need to see.
Dewan has a piece in the Fielder’s Bible on Jr where he argues that zone ratings at Stats Inc consistently indicated that Jr got fewer balls in center than his peers during Jr’s glory years. Dewan concuded that Jr had a gold glove arm in the ’90s but didn’t necesarily deserve his GG rep.
So it seems Jr had range issues before his catastrophic injury (basically his hammy is stapled onto his bone). Watching him daily though it’s glaringly apparent that Jr has severe range issues now. I’m not sure Edmonds is the greatest comp given the nature of Jr’s injury.
Is it possible that the Ms have concerns about Jones’ defense (he was clearly learning on the job during his premature call up last season) and that’s what is keeping them from promoting him?
172: Is it possible that the Ms have concerns about Jones’ defense (he was clearly learning on the job during his premature call up last season) and that’s what is keeping them from promoting him?
I doubt that. He’s become a fine outfielder in a short amount of time, and they should recognize that. He was shaky when he first came up last season, but he improved week-by-week at what appeared to be an exponential rate. I was amazed.
Really, nobody outside the organization probably knows why they’re keeping him down. I don’t even have a guess that’s worth hazarding, so I won’t.
172 - I can’t see how that would be possible. First they would have to care about defense, and second, they would have to have stabbed themselves in both eyes to think he was worse than Raul.
Well, he DID sorta back down saying Willis probably isn’t available, either straight up for Jones, or (ha-ha) for Clement or Balentien.
Does anyone believe that is true? Does anyone other than Baker believe that the reason that Bavasi hasn’t traded AJ for Willis is because the Marlins want more?
Uhhh, doesn’t Bavasi’s “fuck Dave Samson” kind of preclude any Mariners/Marlins trades? No?
Making several assumptions are the team’s competence and wisdom and assuming AJ comes up and stays a Mariner…
How close is AJ’s defensive potential to Ichiro? Can you foresee a day in the next year or two when right field becomes Area 51 again?
*One thing that makes me laugh every single time is the old “Off topic, but (deleted, off topic)”
I will never fail to be shocked that so many walk that razor’s edge of having just enough awareness to realize that they are breaking a rule… but not quite enough awareness to realize that the rule is soon to be applied to them.
Dave, I don’t know if it has been discussed, but I seriously think that this site’s authors should collaborate on a book.
I think it should be titled “Deleted, Useless” and subtitled “Baseball, the internet, and fan-based journalism” or some such.
You guys have been on the high-quality end of the discussion-based sports coverage for a long time… and that subject touches more and more people every day.
Do it. I’ll buy it.
Yes, the fact the M’s never learned the lesson that “defense matters, especially in Safeco” (and especially with the kind of pitchers they always seem to sign) is indeed mystifying, and it’s the lesson they should have learned in 2001.
Take a look at these graphs of that season. That’s the team that won more games than any other, and if you were looking for the measure that clarifies how they were so much better than their peers, look at the last graph (DER vs FIP).
What does “Your comment is awaiting moderation.” mean? Was it something I said? The book thing?
John, I think including the words o-f-f t-o-p-i-c automatically put your post in the moderation queue. Let’s hope my hacking got around the queue.
To the original topic. Grrr, how can a professional organization be so dumb?