Fun with numbers
Since rumors continue to persist that the Mariners are shopping for a veteran right-handed setup man to work the 8th inning, I just thought I’d point out the following.
Sean Green, July: 10 2/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 6 K
Green has inherited 13 runners this month. Not one of them has scored. He’s had two significant issues holding him back in his career – a lack of command and an inability to get left-handed hitters out. He now hasn’t walked anyone in his last 14 appearances, and he had no problem retiring Nick Swisher or Jack Cust today, the two best left-handed hitters in the A’s lineup.
And, to boot, we’ve got this:
Brandon Morrow, last four outings: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 12 K
Morrow’s last four appearances are his best stretch of pitching as a pro. Even when he wasn’t giving up runs in May, he was having trouble throwing strikes, putting nearly as many balls out of the strike zone as in it. In these recent appearances, however, 74 of his 102 pitches have been strikes. To boot, he’s showing far more confidence in his splitter, throwing 10 of them in his last appearance against the A’s on Friday.
The only thing this team needs less than a new right-handed reliever is a new center fielder.
Comments
USSM uses and recommends
It seems like a pattern we continue to folow for the last couple of years: We collect a good group of young relief pitchers and then sprinkle in one or two “veteran relievers” into the mix. And as it usually turns out, the vets are the least talented — or most washed-up — pitchers in the group, but are used in some of the most highest-leverage situations, and ultimately cost us the most runs. Reitsma is walking in the same shoes as Julio Mateo, Eddie Guadardo, Jose Mesa and others that I choose not to recall.
…Plus the fact that Mark Lowe is back from the DL. He looked like he still had his stuff from his brief appearance on Saturday which should enable Reitsma to be cut loose at some point.
Yeah, not to mention that Mark Lowe is back…
This team makes me want to eat my own face off. A retarded monkey knows what this team needs: starting pitching, a bat…preferably left handed, and some outfield defense. In the three innings I got to see today I watched TWO balls land mere feet from a lumbering corner outfielder. WHY, GOD, WHY!??
#4, of the three things you mention, SP, LHB, OF Defense…. let see, we have Broussard on the bench, that should take care of the LHB, we have Jones in AAA, there is the OF Defense, and SP, well of the available arms on the market, I’d rather play russian roulette with AAA/AAAA guys in the 5th spot then pay too much in talent or money for the “proven veteran arm”
Dave, why do you think the Mariners will *learn* anything from the data you present?
Reitsma is still on the roster.
Broussard gets less playing time than Sexson.
Jones is Tacoma.
Second question: doesn’t the exercise of identifying and dispelling “Mariner myths” (should be just a sidebar feature) resemble beating a cripple?
As was said elsewhere:
The A’s possess the two lowest starting pitcher ERAs in the AL, are run by smart people, and have a 49-55 record to go with a +8 differential. The Mariners possess a lot of middling crap, are run by clown college dropouts, and have a 56-46 record to go with a +3 differential. I don’t know if Oakland fans hate us, but they probably should.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2007/7/29/1587/70304
That is, don’t the readers of this blog already pretty much agree already?
I think that the Mariners are now so dead set against looking like they take advice from the internet that they’ll read this blog and others, then do the OPPOSITE, like publishing the rumor that Jones would be called up and Vidro or Ibanez benched probably set back the cause a month
Third, okay, I don’t have anything better to do either.
…What?
They seriously think they need another right handed reliever? Supposedly Octavio Dotel, according to the P-I?
And they’re supposedly considering giving up Balentien, one of the more valuable trade chips the organization has available, to get him?
I really, really want to like this team, but they continue to make it nearly impossible.
7, don’t jump off a cliff just yet. Wlad for Dotel will never happen. Someone leaked it for one reason or another, but even Bavasi isn’t that stupid. The only thing this team right now is a starting pitcher or maybe a decent lefty reliever.
i dont know if anyone agrees, but i say either go for garland or willis or stay with what we got. Getting Igawa or Jennings or any other wash up veteran arm would just tarnish Bavasi’s his already bad rep here and ruin the team’s chemistry. Especially Igawa, according to Yankee fans he’s absolutely terrible and blows ball games.
I don’t really see any other bullpen move the M’s need besides getting rid of Reitsma and bringing up a young arm. Reitsma has blown one too many games and i think Mac has given him too many chances to prove himself.
5 – i agree, the M’s already have LHB and OF Defense the need, they just aren’t willing to put it into action. Id love to see Griffey come back, but a more realistic option is Broussard for sure, atleast platoon him with Sexson.
#5 So 2/3 of the things they need they can have for free…but they STILL won’t take them….this should NOT make me want to eat my own face becaaaaaause….
Although, trading for RH reliever might make the Reitsma appearances rare and meaningless. There are better internal options than Reitsma, but the M’s seem unwilling to use them.
This is ridiculous, the Mariners strength is their ‘pen minus Reitsma of course. If they are to ship any of their top prospects other then AJ, then it HAS to be for a starting pitcher. And not another 5th starter, we have plenty of those. I think Willis would be the best option, a lefty right after King Felix and he is young. You may be able to get him without giving up AJ.
#8, Yes they are that stupid (see Soriano for Ramirez). I wouldn’t be that surprised if we traded Blantein for Dotel….we’d all want to kill ourselves at the shear stupidity, but that’s happened more than once over the last year (Soriano, Snelling/Vidro)
I am just simply speechless at the people running this organization at this point.
I don’t know if my fandom can withstand another horrible personnel decision.
The Snelling/Vidro deal doesn’t look so bad since Snelling is back on the 60-day DL.
But I thought we needed PROVEN veterans. Of course, if Sean Green and Brandon Morrow are good enough to hold their places on the roster, perhaps it’s their performance in the clubhouse that the organization feels the need to shore up (since all the world knows there are few things more important than good clubhouse guys).
I imagine Mariner scouts watching the players they’re scouting just as closely while they’re on the bench – to see how they are “in the clubhouse”. Perhaps they even keep statistics on clubhouse performance, such as JC/9 (jokes cracked per 9 innings), VLMPB (Veteran Leadership Moments Plus Bonding), or VOCC (Value over Clubhouse Cancer), to name just a few.
I would take Doyle on the DL over Turbo grounding out to second.
Also, FREE ADAM JONES.
At this moment of time, the Vidro/Snelling deal is looking good for Seattle. The Nats traded away Snelling to the A’s and as 15 said he is now on the 60-day DL. Soriano for Ramierez was pretty bad though. I could only imagine the bullpen if we had kept Soriano.
Putz
Soriano
Morrow
Lowe
O’Flahrity
Sherrill
Green
Untouchable.
And Reitsma could be stinking up someone else’s bullpen.
I can’t think of an available starting pitcher whom I’d be interested in trading for. The Marlins are asking for the moon for Willis – and he’s probably a bit worse than Washburn at this stage of his career.
Garland is probably better, but would cost the farm.
How anyone could look at this team and decide that it’s most pressing need is for another reliever is beyond me.
I’ve also heard rumors involving Broussard. I mean what do the M’s think they could get for him? Prospects? I think he would be far more valuable to hang on to and give him more playing time to boot. Doesn’t sound like J-Mac has the cajones to tell veterans like Sexson, Ibanez and Vidro “you’re gonna sit this one out.” Someone mentioned earlier today that the FO is managing the team. I think they may be right since they have this attitude “he’s making the big bucks, we gotta play him, even if he is sucking.”
Might be an interesting week. Interesting to see what the FO thinks we need. Because we don’t have “that 8th inning guy”, they think there’s a need. Ugh.
Garland? Jennings? Dotel? Wlad will probably go if we do something.
I kinda hope we stand pat, as tough as it is. Call up Jones and call it good.
At this moment of time, the Vidro/Snelling deal is looking good for Seattle.
Um, no. We’re still paying 6 million dollars for a guy with one of the most level AVG/OBP/SLG lines and we’re on the hook for the same salary for next year, clogging up the DH spot to boot — the easiest position to fill considering you don’t have to account for defense. It wouldn’t have “looked good” if we got him for “free”.
Jennings has a dead arm. His best fastball on Sunday was clocked at 86-87 range.
Rydogg2122 @ 15
Chris Snelling could be dead and that wouldn’t make the deal look good.
We could have given the Nats dead tree frogs and this deal would still stink. No one in their right mind trades FOR Vidro unless he’s absolutely free. And at 12 million of lost potential he is costing us big time.
Here’s an interesting tidbit.
The M’s are yet to make a roster move this year involving a hitter, the last one was getting Ellison at the end of Spring Training.
Nobody has hit the DL. Nobody up, nobody down, nobody DFA’d. What a change from the last few years.
Jennings has a dead arm. His best fastball on Sunday was clocked at 86-87 range.
I’m not saying I want any of those guys. I just don’t think they are good moves down and they are definitely not good moves for the future.
Say what you will about Vidro, he is 2nd on the club in hits, 2nd in walks, and 2nd in OBP. But he only has 17 extra base hits.
Give Ben Broussard all of those at-bats this season against RHP and we’ll talk.
Here’s my stab at the thought processes of those who think this team needs Octavio Dotel as a veteran set up guy:
1. The team needs to get better to contend.
2. We can’t add a bat, because the positions that could stand an upgrade are already staffed by dependable veterans (Ibanez, Sexson) who will come around.
3. We could upgrade at DH where Vidro doesn’t have much power; but he hits for a high average and doesn’t strike out. That means we want to keep his bat in the lineup too.
4. Veteran starting pitchers will cost too much in prospects (Hey, even the Mariners’ FO has to be right some time!)
5. Defense doesn’t matter
6. The only area that leaves for an upgrade is the set-up role in the bullpen where Chris Reitsma has struggled.
Okay, now switch to using rate stats rather than counting stats, then compare him to the DH position in the rest of the league.
Then you can come back and make an argument that this was still a good deal, if you want to.
Would you rather have Carl Everett of last season?
Would you rather have Carl Everett of last season?
So we replaced a dead horse with one that’s sick and expensive to keep alive.
That doesn’t mean we couldn’t of had a stallion. There’s a pretty good one in the stables, actually.
No, nor would I rather have a competant DH. Like Ben Broussard perhaps.
Carl Everett sucked, but at least we didn’t have to give up talent to get him.
This of course presumes your Hobson’s Choice was the only option.
I’m just saying Vidro is an upgrade from last season, but I’d rather have Ibanez DH, AJ in left and Vidro platoon/pinch hit.
I’m sorry I screwed that up totally.
I didn’t like Everett as DH. I don’t like Vidro. Both sucked. Just because Everett sucked worse doesn’t mean that Vidro is particularly good.
I gotta admit, I had my doubts (and I’m still a bit skeptical), but Brandon’s last few outings have been impressive. I didn’t think he’d manage to put together a string like this until he’d spent a couple years in the minors. Maybe he’s not the carpet pissing puppy we all thought he was.
At this point, I think if they really want to improve the bullpen, the move is to shoot Chris Reitsma out of a cannon and bring up Mateo or Mickolio. Whoever they think is better.
Bingo Rydogg.
Why even raise the comparison with Everett?
Ha ha ha ha ha.
2006 Everett: .227/.297/.360
2007 Vidro: .301/.363/.366
The only regular DHs less worthwhile than Vidro are Sosa and Huff.
I just say we feed Reitsma to Mateo and bring up Mickolio.
Is there some MLBPA agreement that says you have to give a guy playing time if you pay him more than X dollars? It seems a lot of the M’s thinking goes like this: “So and so isn’t the best player for the position, but we’re paying him a bunch of money so we HAVE to play him. Sigh.”
My 2 cents
1st penny – Dontrelle Willis is going to be pretty bad in a few years. Everything that I’ve read is hurting his case even more. He just appears to be on the verge of breaking down.
2nd cent – If we had kept Soriano… instead of Reitsma, we could have a Huber, or Lehr in his spot. Have kept Morrow down and built him up for the future. Pretty simple. So simple, in fact, that I hate Bavasi because of it.
Other change available – AJ in left. Keep Wlad. Don’t re-up Guillen’s contract. Platoon Guillen/Raul/Broussard/Sexson/Vidro in RF/1B/DH. Smooth and easy. Not too hard to do.
It’s a common management bias toward seniority. It happens regularly – probably moreso outside baseball.
What’s the word on Wlad Balentien’s defensive abilities? Would he be any sort of upgrade? Is he as bad as Guillen?
Ok, lets say the Mariners do get Dotel, where does everyone else fit in? Certainly Reitsma gets the boot, I hope, we hope. I sounds like you would have a huge logjam with RH relievers (Morrow, Green, Lowe). Do the M’s have plans to have Morrow start in the future?
One scouting report I read said he is a decent defender with a solid throwing arm. Won’t hit for average and needs to work on avoiding K’s.
Really? I read that he’s a bad defender with a strong enough arm to handle right field, but not really be good and that people were starting to think maybe he would be able to hit for decent average and walk a lot. I guess you heard different.
That’s just not saying a whole lot….
I’m thinking that you could have the Jones of LAST year in LF, instead of Ibanez, and you’d have EQUAL offense and superior defense.
Raul, sit down a few days. Let Jones have a few bats. YOU’LL do better, and so will the team.
How long is Vidro’s contract? There has to be something regarding AJ that the FO knows that we don’t know. Perhaps they don’t want to “start the clock” on him too soon?
Dude, seriously, if you don’t know anything, it’s okay to stop posting.
Nice attitude.
Nice attitude.
The snark is not undeserved. I’m one of the biggest proponents of the sempai / kohai relationship that John Conner tries to explain in the movie Rising Sun: “the kohai talks; the sempai knows”. The point of being a sempai, tho, is that the sempai is also a teacher.
Thus, I believe that those who know; teach. And I think the onus is upon the rest of us to educate those who simply remain in ignorance.
That doesn’t mean that it gets frustrating that every time it feels like you make headway with most of the readerbase, another one shows up to make you start over from scratch.
Yes! Clearly, it is my attitude at fault when someone refuses to look up the most basic facts like, say, the length of Vidro’s contract, but insists on having others look them up while they base bad arguments on their ignorance.
Thank you for your valuable insight into this dynamic.
Good news Rydogg! They’re selling replica Vidro jerseys at the Mariner’s team store!
Ah crap, you bought one before me. It better have been on sale! Don’t forget to get that Jar-Jar Binks costume at your next Star Wars Nerd Convention!
Dave, i totally agree with you that green and lately morrow have been outstanding and what not, theres really no way to disagree.
But in terms of “roles”, which are a bit over rated, but never the less will continue to exist until im emperor of baseball… Greens best value, in my opinion, is he can pitch that 6th and 7th inning while suck fest starters not named after a cat pitch.. and trust for morrow in an august game that could mean something is…low.
I dont think id like a balentien esque prospect going for dotel or anyone like that, but should the team be looking at the david riskes of the world? sure, anything that gets reitsma off the team
RyDogg,
It’s cool to admit defeat man. It took me since about a month (or so) before the season began to start posting here. I’m still a “newb”. Just chill, and take your lumps. Read up a lot, and come back with a better knowledge.
“The only regular DHs less worthwhile than Vidro are Sosa and Huff.”
I have to say, I find this argument (and it’s incredibly popular) pretty misleading. People have a worrying fondness for using it to try and make the case that Vidro’s no better than a replacement level player without actually using the one stat we have which measures that standard – VORP. Look at Vidro’s VORP and you’ll see he’s much better than replacement level. His VORP as of today is 11.6.
When we’re talking about DH’s we have to keep in mind that there are 4 or 5 guys who border on elite players and the rest is a free for all. That Vidro ranks 7th or 8th out of the regulars doesn’t mean he’s useless – we can’t just go out and get David Ortiz for nothing – VORP is a far better way of determining a player’s value than this sort of analysis and if you use VORP you see that Vidro is a decent (not great) contributor.
vidro’s slugged in the mid tier 400s since the all star break, can we leave him alone? it was a God awful trade but since the break hes produced which is much more then we can say about the skinnier version of vin diesel sucking it up in LF. I know its only 100 games, but Raul looks done, everything looks defensive on offense and nothing has ever looked defensive on defense (im clever)
Just want to thank USSM for providing so much original, interesting content (well thought out, but still plenty opinionated) lately while we all hold our collective breath hoping management doesn’t do what we think they are going to at the trade deadline. It has been a pleasant distraction.
#60: While I too am holding my breath for Tuesday afternoon to come and go quietly, a part of me says just trade Jones for Dotel and get it over with so that I don’t have to spend the off season worrying about the Ms trading Jones for Woody Williams this December.
How sad is that?
People have a worrying fondness for using it to try and make the case that Vidro’s no better than a replacement level player without actually using the one stat we have which measures that standard – VORP.
We’ve had this conversation before – the baseline for replacement level DH in VORP is way too low. Because of how VORP calculates replacement level, it actually has the replacement level DH as a worse player than a replacement level first baseman, which is, of course, ridiculous. Simply by definition, a replacement level DH has to be the least valuable replacement level player on any given team, because every single player on earth is capable of DH’ing, but the guy who can only DH is not capable of playing any other position.
Personally, I’ve essentially stopped using VORP. The more I’ve thought about this in the last year, the more convinced I became that the best way to evaluate a player is to compare their offensive performance to a league average hitter, add in a defensive component (such as UZR), adjust for position, and then adjust for replacement level at that position.
Vidro’s recent surge has put him almost exactly at league average as a hitter. So, he’s +0 wins offensively. There’s obviously no defensive adjustment needed for a DH, but the DH position gets a -2 win positional adjustment (the most severe of any position, as it should be), so Vidro has been worth about 2 wins less than an average player.
Replacement level is set at about 2 wins below average at every offensive position except catcher, so Vidro has essentially been a replacement level player.
The offensive wins above average + defense + positional adjustment + replacement level adjustment = player value is the way to go.
Since that STILL doesn’t get him to be an average DH, slugging wise……um, no.
I personally have little confidence in Morrow to come in and be consistantly dominate in the late innings. His control seems to come and go too often for my taste. If the M’s cant trust Sherrill how can they possibly trust Morrow.
As for making the roster better…trade Sexson. he is taking valuable playing time from the likes of Broussard. So platoon Vidro/Brousseard at 1st, DH Ibanez and call up Jones. Yes you lose something at first when Vidro is there however you make up for it with Broussard.
The bullpen should be augmented with someone from the farm not a trade. Bullpen pitchers are historically rather unpredictable (read:Baltimore) and big money should never be spent on middle relief. There players from the farm are the most logical shoice in staffing a team bullpen.
Dave,
In the past you have had names of left handed mashers
that were readily available.
Are there any lefties with power that you know of? Or would Mariners be just as well off giving Broussard more at bats verses righties?
Where would a lefty play besides DH? You cant believe the M’s are going to DFA Vidro.
You might as well just say “cut Sexson”. It’s as likely to happen, and would get us as much in return. No one is going to trade anything for Sexson.
Dave: I really appreciate your post about valuing players in #62, but just to be clear can you elaborate on how BP inflates the production from DH? I was under the impression that replacement level for that position was the highest (actually the same as firstbase) given the fact that the pool of players who can be a DH is the largest.
It doesnt really matter what you get for Sexson as long as the receiving team pays him something. You are moving Sexson for payroll purposes, addition by subtraction. By designating Sexson the M’s would be on the hook for his entire salary, if you could sucker a team into paying for half that would allow the M’s to possibly sign a better player in the offseason.
The Mariners need a starter, not a right handed set-up man. I am fearing that the fact that they haven’t called up Jones indicates that they may be having discussions about trading him (thus not disrupting team chemistry by bringing him up and trading him, plus not risking his trade value by having him face major league pitchers and not doing well). Any thoughts on how untouchable Jones really is? I would hate to wake up on August 1st to discover we traded Jones for Gil Meche.
If we have no use for Sexson, why would anyone else? Which team is desperate for an expensive, lumbering first baseman who seems to have lost his bat speed?
8. I think Bavasi has shown that he is that stupid. Soriano for Ramirez for example.
I have the feeling that the “open letter” probably embarrassed the M’s; since it made it look like a blog has more baseball sense than they do (which actually appears to be true). As juvenile as it may seem, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were holding back AJ when the blogs are calling for him, just to try to prove that they don’t listen to blogs (no matter how correct, detailed, and data infused they are).
Maybe reverse psychology would work?
I was under the impression that replacement level for that position was the highest (actually the same as firstbase) given the fact that the pool of players who can be a DH is the largest.
VORP’s replacement level is calculated as a percentage of the performance from the players who have played that position during the current year. Because a decent number of teams have made the decision to not have a full time DH, but instead use it to rotate guys or give injured players a break from playing the field, the overall offensive performances of the DH position are lowered, and in turn, so is the theoretical replacement level.
A replacement level DH, by definition, has to be essentially the best of the freely available hitters you could find, since any player could play DH. There’s no logical basis for replacement level DH to be set to a lower production level than a replacement level position player. In VORP, it is. That’s incorrect, and it leads to the overvaluation of guys like Vidro who are being compared to a subset of players that don’t adequately show just how easy it is to find a guy who can hit.
As juvenile as it may seem, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were holding back AJ when the blogs are calling for him…
This is a ridiculous claim. You can’t actually believe this to be true, can you? The Mariners are not intentionally running out a worse roster just to spite the blogosphere. I can’t even comprehend what it would take to believe that to be true.
Welcome back, DMZ. You’ve been missed.
I was watching Baseball Tonight this weekend, and if Buster Olney says Seattle needs bullpen help, it [i]must[/i] be true!
Is it safe to say that everyone’s fear is a craptastic trade involving Adam Jones? I know it’s mine, and I fear it’s just not that far from reality.
Jimmie
#76: I don’t think they would go so far as to trade AJ. But, there are lower levels of craptastic-ness. The rumors of trading Jeff Clement to Tampa Bay for Al Reyes (admittedly some speculation on TB beat writer’s part) are almost as troubling.
If they must trade for a pitcher, the only player with any value whose contract might be acceptable to somebody is Jose Guillen. No one will take Sexson or Ibanez.
I am opposed to trading Jones or Balentien, period. IMO they should see what they can get for Guillen and give Adam and Wlad his at-bats. Cut Ellison, who becomes even more worthless than he already is once Jones is here.
As for Dontrelle Willis, he throws across his body and I am amazed that he has lasted as long as he has. I would not want him here under any circumstances.
No, I don’t actually believe it. However, there must be SOME reason they are leaving him in Tacoma. The only thing I can think of is they are keeping him down there for a trade, rather than bringing him up for a few days and messing up their “chemistry”.
So, what reasons would they have to leave him down there? Either they are doing it because of a potential trade, they aren’t smart enough to realize he should be a M, or out of spite? Well, I don’t want to think about the trade possibility, I’ld like to believe they are smarter than that, so that only leaves one potential reason. Which I also find somewhat humorous. Much more humorous than the nightmare trade possibility.
Frankly, I’m thinking at this point that Adam Jones is still in Tacoma because someone in the front office is an adherent of a pagan religion that requires a midnight bobblehead sacrifice before a player can be called up.
It likely makes as much sense as whatever their actual “reason” is.
#78 — I would favor trading Balentien in the right deal. If the M’s received a premium for him, then they can use Jones, Ichiro, and Guillen in the OF next year. But I agree with most here that Balentien for some slightly above average middle reliever would be a bad deal.
I put this on Geoff Baker. He initially called for another reliever, but we’ve got more than plenty. When does a new reliever pitch?
But we def. need a new outfielder, for which we have an answer;
and we need a starting pitcher. I’d settle for middling innings-eater of the Franklin variety. If the guy can pitch 7 or 8 innings 60% of the time and not give up 6 runs, that’ll be valuable. A guy who wins games with his arm would be nice, but all I really need is a guy who isn’t out there pitching is out of games.
I wouldn’t put it on Geoff Baker or Buster Olney. The M’s may read them, but they don’t take advice from them anymore than they take advice from blogs.
I put it on the M’s belief that they need “proven veterans” during stretch run. They could bring up Mickolio (sp?) as a bullpen arm and AJ and/or Wlad as an outfieder/big bat. But they haven’t, and they probably won’t.
Wait, you mean that the Mariners actually have internal personel whose job it is to figure this stuff? I thought they just used various media to make these multi-million dollar decisions. Just because they make poor decisions doesn’t mean they’ve done it because of what a writer has said.
and I sure don’t recall any media members suggesting trading anything for Vidro or Ramirez …
It’s no mystery why they aren’t bringing Adam Jones up. They’re not going to DFA Vidro because he’s a “classic two-hole hitter,” according to McLaren. And Ibanez has a bobble head night coming up, so he’s got to stay in left field. That combined with Bavasi’s “kids get managers fired” nonsense means AJ can just keep tearing up AAA.
1. Completely agree that there is no need for another reliever.
2. The Jones thing gets more bizarre every day. At least bring him to replace Ellison and ease him in gradually. Is chemistry the big worry?
3. I absolutely love this blog – until the subject becomes Vidro. Just keep hitting your singles Jose. Some of us appreciate you.
I’d remind everyone that if only McLaren started using some platoons, things would be a lot better.
As Dave has pointed out, clearly McLaren understands platoon differentials because he does play for them at certain points in the game. But clearly he does not think they are useful early in games, only against a bullpen late in games. Or something.
If Ral and Guillen platooned in right (both of which have large platoon differentials), Broussard and Sexson platooned at first (at least until Vidro’s current hot streak ends), and AJ played left everyday, the offense would be lot better and the defense would be somewhat better.
I’m astounded that something so obvious is beyond the ken of management.
#87 — Remember, the M’s still have a few games left to play against Oakland, and Ellison is the only one who can shove around spherical Joe Blanton.
was watching Baseball Tonight this weekend, and if Buster Olney says Seattle needs bullpen help, it [i]must[/i] be true!
That’s so hilariously bad; don’t people worry about demonstrating they know nothing on national TV?
It was an oft-remarked fact on the game (and after-game) broadcast yesterday that that game marked the 32nd “come-from-behind” victory for the M’s, “the most in the majors this year.” What that tells you is that not only is the M’s bullpen better than their starting pitching, in general, it also means the M’s bullpen is better than other team’s bullpens.
So yeah, from that you can conclude that the M’s most pressing need is…. bullpen help.
I would like Vidro just fine, under three conditions:
1) He were making the league minimum;
2) He was being used off the bench;
3) We hadn’t had to give up two pieces of young talent (even flawed young talent) to get him.
Since none of those are true, no, I don’t like Vidro, no matter how many singles he hits.
He is the embodiment of the fact that this front office does not understand the concept of freely available talent.
The minor leagues are littered with guys that can do what Jose Vidro is currently doing.
Vidro has no power. The A’s picked up Jack Cust from the scrap heap and it cost them exactly what?
Broussard could have been getting all of Vidro’s at-bats and we could have had Fruto and Snelling.
Vidro is a monument to Mariner front-office stupidity. I’m sure he is a nice guy, and hooray if he’s good in the clubhouse, but I wish that trade had not been made.
Yeah, it’s really strange that a manager can so clearly believe in handedness matchups when they’re calling pitchers out of the bullpen (Sherrill is not just a LOOGY!) and when pinch hitting, but they suddenly don’t believe in it when they’re assigning players (especially veterans) to a lineup. (And especially weird since the sample size for a regular player is so much larger). I guess it’s just a “by the book” thing, plus a general tendency to value winning games less than not having to explain lessened playing time to a regular. Though I would think as long as it is made clear coming out of ST it shouldn’t be a problem (occasional problem-child players excepted).
It’s kind of funny that everyone’s lauding the A’s, who have such a brilliant front office that they are 49-56.
I think another reliever is a good idea–and Washburn’s start last night shows exactly why: our starters can’t be relied upon to go much past six innings, and we’re going to need not just one, but two or three decent setup guys if we’re going to win enough games to make it to the playoffs.
God this is driving me crazy. Why is Jones still in Tacoma? What is the freaking hold up? We’ve known he’s ready to come up for months now, we know he’d probably shore up a number of problems we’re having defensively and very possibly offensively as well, why why why why is he not on the field?
Bavasi even said so himself that Jones was ready almost a month ago in an interview with AM 1000, yet here we are and it’s the end of July and his talent is still being wasted in Tacoma.
Honestly, we could probably have a pretty good team if we actually had competent management. Yet here we are, Richie Sexson is earning more than Ichiro this year for zero contribution (Bench him for a few games, Broussard is better, who cares if that’s an expensive price tag to put on the bench if a replacement player can perform better than his .204 76 SO ass) and Jones lingers in AAA while Ibanez stinks it up in left field. What could they possibly be waiting for?
Among other things:
Seattle Mariners $ 106,460,833
Oakland Athletics $ 79,366,940
It’s kind of funny that everyone’s lauding the A’s, who have such a brilliant front office that they are 49-56.
I think its hilarious that you think the last 10 years of the A’s whipping the Mariners with half the payroll didn’t happen.
and we’re going to need not just one, but two or three decent setup guys if we’re going to win enough games to make it to the playoffs.
You mean like Sean Green, George Sherrill, Eric O’Flaherty, and Mark Lowe? If Brandon Morrow’s command improvement is even partially for real, that would give the Mariners five “decent setup guys”.
Trading for a reliever is the new litmus test about how well people understand player evaluation.
Even given his recent hot stretch, why is Morrow still in the major leagues?
Coming out of Spring Training I understood (but disagreed with) the Mariners thought process. Putz was hurt, Reitsma was hurt, Sherill looked lousy, the other guys were unproven, and Morrow was pretty good. And we needed someone to pitch the 8th. But 2/3 of the way through the season, Putz is fine, Sherill is back on track, O’Flaherty and Green are solid. By their own admission/usage Morrow is the #5 or #6 guy in the pen, relegated to middle relief if not mop up work. If you don’t need Morrow for high leverage situations to maximize his short-term value, why not send him to AA where he can work on contributing to the team long term? If this wasn’t obvious a week ago, doesn’t it have to be now with Lowe up?
hey, when swapping out Sexson for Broussard has even occurred to John McGrath …
Dave, Great post as usual. So Seth, do you think the A’s front office did a bad job for the last 10 years? I would say Judging a F/O on one years worth of performance is small sample size….
#98 — Would Morrow even benefit from going down to the minors now, at this point in the season? I suppose that if the M’s feel that there is no use for him on the major league club, sure, but they have already made their mistake with him. I don’t think a month or two in the minors will rectify it. Morrow is clearly better than Reitsma, and if the M’s want to turn him into a starter (which I doubt will happen) they might as well wait a couple months.
98: You don’t understand! The team needs more middle relievers! We can’t send Morrow down; then we’d have an even bigger hole!
People who want a reliever because our starters can’t make it past 5 innings are missing the point. THE PROBLEM IS THE STARTER!!!! You don’t trade prospects (or anyone in my opinion) for relievers to eat up the 6th and 7th innings, those guys should be in your farm system (which I think they are, and some are already on the club). We should only consider trading our prospects for TOR SP (ummm, do you see any available, really??), or a LHB/OF Defense (since the M’s don’t seem to want to bring up Jones).
More to the point, if the M’s “add” anyone outside of the organization, I’m scared. Instead they are in the classic addition by substraction position, i.e. subtract Vidro/Sexson/Ibanez (or atleast subtract their playing time.
PROVEN veterans…
Y’know, listening to Reitsma come into the game on the radio yesterday as I drove through Redmond (I was the guy in the white truck pounding his forehead on the steering wheel), it occured to me that perhaps the M’s don’t realize “proven” is really only half an adjective. For all their “proven” guys, perhaps they should ask the quesiton, “Proven what?”
Echoing 98 & 101 — is there a realistic hope that Morrow eventually spends some time in the minors to work on becoming a starter, even next year? Or has he been pigeonholed for life?
I’ve decided I am going to cling to the line Larry Stone used today … “[they] may come to the conclusion that nothing available is better than what they have.”
Another thing that really grinds my gears: All this talk about needing a set-up for Putz. I really hope we don’t waste Balentein or Clement on a reliever we do not need at all. If there is anywhere the Mariners shine (Reitsma aside) it’s typically been late in the game, why are we fixing something that isn’t broken at all?
Personally I think we should move Balentein for a decent starter. Ramirez is atrocious and he needs to be off the team right now, even if we can’t land a stellar difference-maker we can at least improve our #5 spot, and Wladimir isn’t a vital addition provided Jones is ever called up.
It’s possible that the reason Jones has been stuck in Tacoma is that the FO was hoping to bait someone into making their anchor available, such as Bedard with the Orioles. That didn’t happen, so now I’m just hoping they won’t trade him for someone who’s worth a lot less than he is and once again leave the Mariners up sh*t creek after a trade.
“The Mariners are not intentionally running out a worse roster just to spite the blogosphere. I can’t even comprehend what it would take to believe that to be true.”
Dave, you’ve misstated the issue.
The issue is not “to spite the blogosphere,” it’s to retain credibility with the baseball world.
I read once that every NFL head coach is auditioning for his next job as an assistant coach. A head coach who takes too many risks or deviates too far from the conventional thinking will not be hired to be anyone’s assistant once fired as a head coach.
If Bavasi or McLaren look like they take advice from Dave, then they reveal that they have few insights to offer their next employers that is not freely available on the internet. If they continue as they have, then they explain their failures by saying “baseball is a funny game,” or “we needed another set up man,” or “the veterans didn’t perform like we thought they would,” etc. Pick the cliche.
They’ll show themselves as the sort of people whom veteran ball players can trust and whom other baseball people like — qualities far more important to obtaining employment than actual success.
Ding! Ding! Ding!
Coming back from injury does NOT mean you’re proven!
So yeah, from that you can conclude that the M’s most pressing need is…. bullpen help.
Something just occured to me. Of all the various subassemblies on the team, the bullpen is the one the M’s have had the most luck putting together. The rotation is a mess, the lineup is adequate at best, the defense is suspect. Perhaps the M’s figure relievers are the only parts they know how to evaluate, so they’ll play to their strengths.
Okay, yeah, it’s a joke. But it also reminded me of Dave’s “Track Record” post. The M’s have actually been pretty bad at evaluating relievers. Their bullpen is good because of the talent they acquired without any significant track record (Putz, Sherrill, Green, Lowe, Morrow lately) who have surprised the team by being much better than expected (or, in Green and Sherrils cases, recognized).
Just for comparison:
Dotel in July: 8 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 5 BB, 13 K
Reyes in July: 5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 3 BB, 5 K
What, exactly, are we missing?
One thing bad management teams like to do is lower expectations. Part of that is often setting (and broadcasting) reachable goals, as opposed to, for example, desirable goals.
I don’t know if this is the case here or not… but it sure started to seem like it as we watched this ridiculous need-a-set-up-man story trickle out through predictable sources.
Other than stunning incompetence, it’s the only rational explanation I can come up with – set the bar low (bullpen help) so we can reach expectations.
It’s tried and true – if you can’t meet expectations, then you have to lower them.
Wouldn’t even Jason David (?) been better than Reitsma?
Jason David is better suited to stay in the NFL. I don’t think his fastball is that good…
Jason David is better suited to stay in the NFL. I don’t think his fastball is that good…
Yes. Jason Davis on the other hand would be an improvment. Not that his performance has been any better than Reitsma, but the team doesn’t have confidence in him and so would use him in lower leverage situations.
Argh. It’s like trying to convince my 1-year old she’d rather play with a stuffed bunny rabbit than a book of matches. She wants the matches…
Yes I think Jason Davis would manage an appearance with an ERA under 20. With Lowe back we don’t really need him or Reitsma though.
107- I thought you meant Doug Creek at first.
Just a thought, but if Reitsma is sent back down to AAA or put on the DL, who will we call up?
Please tell me it’s not Davis or Freirbrand. Maybe it’s time to give Mateo another shot?
At this point, the M’s probably would not send Morrow down in order to avoid burning an option (or at least until August 13 — like Adam Jones last year, an option is not burned unless the player spends 20 days in the minors, so the M’s could recall Morrow on September 1 when rosters expand).
Something I would find uproariously hilarious would be when BB gets canned, he is told “we have to let you go, Bill, because you signed too many veterans”.
One more comment on platooning,
If a manager went to a veteran player, and said, “which would you rather do, be a part time player on a contending team with a decent chance of playing in the post season, or be a full time player on a team that was out of the race?” what do you think the answer would be 9 times out of 10, or more?
Matt
It isn’t time to bring back Mateo. He has had a four year shot to show us what he’s got. Here’s my summary:
1. Serious, scary extreme flyball tendencies
2. Declining ability to strike anyone out in the majors
3. Sharp teeth
4. No manners
He’s lucky he’s even in Tacoma. According to the wise men around here, Mickolio is a much better bet.
I fear that few competitive athletes are going to be receptive to the notion that a contending team is ever better off with them on the bench.
“Hey Jose Guillen, you suck against righties so I’m going to have this rookie Jones take your playing time because it makes the team better. Are you alright with that? I’m sure it won’t affect the money you make in the offseason when you’re negotiating a new contract.”
Yeah, exactly. There’s no guarantee that the team is going to contend, so the player can’t really accept that deal on face value. And if the team isn’t contending, you know he’s going to want more playing time either because he knows he’s the bat they need, or because he wants to look good to get the hell off the sinking ship. Some players — particularly young ones — might be happy to take the “sure contender but less playing time” trade off if it was a sure thing, but it’s not. And the older players are unlikely to be happy, period.
I really like Brandon Morrow. He was thrown into the fire right of the bat and rose to the call.
He’s had some growing pains and no doubt has more in store, but could the Mariners ruin him by inserting him into the rotation?
If not, I would like to see us take a flyer on this kid because he’s shown he’s a competitor and I would rather give it a try than trade for Steve Trachel.
The issue is not “to spite the blogosphere,” it’s to retain credibility with the baseball world.
The way to maximize your credibility is to have a winning team. I have a hard time believing Bavasi would deliberately make the team less optimal just for appearances, whether the audience for that is the rest of baseball or the wild and woolly internet. I highly doubt Bavasi’s future potential employers are going to say “You know what, because you did something that was mentioned first on the internet, we don’t trust your judgment so we’re not going to hire you.” Everything gets mentioned first on the internet, both crazy crap no sane person would do and rational moves that are also getting talked about by scouts and GMs for other teams (such as “promote Adam Jones”). If nobody in baseball is allowed to make any move that’s suggested first on a fan website, nobody in baseball is allowed to make any move, period.
No, the only rational reason AJ is still down in AAA is that Bavasi thinks something else is more valuable than whatever Jones would bring to the club — whether that’s team chemistry or respecting his veterans or dangling trade bait, or some combination, or something we haven’t imagined.
Dave: I was checking out B-R’s stats, and I ran across something a little disconcerting.
Sean Green in the 8th inning.
.361/.435/.525, OPS+ 162. It’s a relatively small sample size (21 games, 70 PA), so I wonder if it is skewed by a bad early performance or something (didn’t have time to go through the box scores). Also, his 8th inning BABIP is a ridiculous .449.
He’s had some growing pains and no doubt has more in store, but could the Mariners ruin him by inserting him into the rotation?
I’m no expert, but my understanding is that you can’t expect a pitcher to switch from relieving to starting at the big league level for the first time without some “stretching out” in situations where the team’s place in the standings isn’t affected. There’s a big difference between throwing at max effort for an inning or two and pacing yourself for five or six or more innings, facing a lineup several times. That’s why it’s easier to find relievers than starters.
so that only leaves one potential reason
That is a false dichotomy. Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
That was supposed to start:
so that only leaves one potential reason
Hm. Not [quote] or [bquote]…
“Personally, I’ve essentially stopped using VORP. The more I’ve thought about this in the last year, the more convinced I became that the best way to evaluate a player is to compare their offensive performance to a league average hitter, add in a defensive component (such as UZR), adjust for position, and then adjust for replacement level at that position.
Vidro’s recent surge has put him almost exactly at league average as a hitter. So, he’s +0 wins offensively. There’s obviously no defensive adjustment needed for a DH, but the DH position gets a -2 win positional adjustment (the most severe of any position, as it should be), so Vidro has been worth about 2 wins less than an average player.
Replacement level is set at about 2 wins below average at every offensive position except catcher, so Vidro has essentially been a replacement level player.”
This may be a better way to evaluate a roster spot, but it doesn’t make a great deal of sense in evaluating Vidro’s contribution strictly as a DH. If we’re talking about a replacement level player at DH then (as you state) we can consider every hitter a potential DH. If we do so and we state (as you’ve stated) that Vidro is at or around league average in hitting, then it would be impossible to conclude that he’s at replacement level in purely offensive terms – replacement level cannot equal league average performance.
What this really argues is that Vidro is at the replacement level when you factor in defence – i.e. that a replacement level player could match Vidro’s contribution to the roster through offence and defence combined (e.g. the replacement player can hit somewhat worse than Vidro, but can also play the outfield as a defensive replacement). However if both these players were full time DH’s and you ignore any defensive contributions, then Vidro’s contribution would be above the replacement level player’s performance. There’s no question that from a strictly offensive perspective, Vidro is above the replacement level and this argument doesn’t really refute that point.
No, replacement level offense for DH’s is 2 wins above replacement level offense for all players. When you look at all potential DH’s you include some players who are above replacement level offense but because of their defensive deficiencies are below replacement level in total (I’m thinking Jack Cust although he probably isn’t the best example). This pushes replacement level offense for DH’s over replacement level offense averaged over all positions.
Conversely, replacement level offense for, say, CF’s is lower than the “average” replacement level offense because of a no-hit, all D player (e.g. Jason Ellison) can, in total, be replacement level and therefore push down replacement level offense for the position.
My point was that if you forget about positions and defence and consider all hitters in total, then a league average hitter cannot be at the replacement level – that’s what I mean when I said “There’s no question that from a strictly offensive perspective, Vidro is above the replacement level”. This is different from the actual replacement level for each position – what you’re referring to – I was trying to make a conceptual point.
It doesn’t make sense to “forget about positions and defense” if we are, as you state in 131, “evaluating Vidro’s contribution strictly as a DH.” The pool of replacement level DH’s includes players with no defensive value, and should exclude no-hit, all-defense players. These replacement level DH candidates generate more offense than replacement level players as a whole.
If all you are trying to say is that Vidro is a better hitter than the average replacement-level player, including the no-hit, all-defense players, then sure, I agree with you. But then your point is hardly relevant, because no sane GM would consider Jason Ellison or Pokey Reese as a full-time DH.