Game 92, Orioles at Mariners
Bedard Cabrera vs Washburn, 7:05 pm.
Erik Bedard scratched with a stiff neck. Or he’s just terrified of Jose Guillen, who is hitting something like .850/.900/3.431 against lefties this year.
USSM roundup
You know, I think in the best interests of everyone, let’s just pretend that yesterday didn’t happen. Deal? Good.
So, since there wasn’t a game last night, that gives me a chance to talk about some USSM things for a minute.
If you haven’t registered for the USSM/LL events in August yet, you better do so now. I’m going to be finalizing the ticket purchases shortly, and those who haven’t signed up will be left out. We have more open spots for the Tacoma game than the Everett game, likely due to the day of the week, but let me just suggest that if you’re thinking about going, you probably should. There’s going to be a lot of people who wish they would have gone once we post the recaps.
Also, for the two of you who wish you had more chances to hear me voice my opinion, well, you’re in luck. KJR is putting me on the air with The Groz on Friday at 2:20 pm, and assuming that I don’t flip out and make a fool of myself, this will turn into a weekly gig. USSM and KJR – a match made in Weird Marriage Heaven.
And, finally, I’m sure most of you have noticed by now that I’ve essentially been running this thing by myself the last month or so. Don’t worry, this isn’t a permanent situation – Derek will be back and we might even be able to coax Jeff and Jason into making an appearance or two at some point. However, for right now, it’s just me, and with the recent attack of trolls we’ve had, well, there’s just a bunch of administrative stuff that has popped up lately. So, if I seem a little snappy or don’t respond to your question as timely as you’re used to, I’m sorry, but just believe me that I’m doing the best I can.
Game 91, Orioles at Mariners
Guthrie vs Hernandez, 7:05 pm.
The same line-up that couldn’t touch Horacio Ramirez last night now gets to deal with King Felix. This should be fun.
Thoughts From Last Night’s Game
Good to see the M’s taking care of business against an inferior club. The Orioles aren’t a good team when healthy, and when you take Melvin Mora and Miguel Tejada away, well, they just stink. Picking up a game on Cleveland in the wild card chase, and half a game on the Angels, is exactly what the M’s needed to do last night. Their playoff odds, depending on which of the mathmatical models you want to buy into, are sitting somewhere between 35-45% right now. Nothing wrong with that. So, how about the game itself.
Horacio Ramirez threw the Jarrod Washburn Special, putting the ball over the plate against a lousy team in Safeco Field and watching them get themselves out. He did exactly what he should have done – realized he was facing a line-up of talentless hacks and gave them the opportunity to put the bat on the ball, knowing they aren’t good enough to do anything with it. Against this kind of team, it’s the right gameplan. But, as I’m sure regular readers know by now, this is also not any kind of recipe for continued success. If he pitches the same way in Toronto next Sunday, he’s going to get torched. I’m encouraged that we won a game where we started one of the worst pitchers in baseball – I’m not at all encouraged that this was any kind of indicator of Horacio Ramirez’s future performance level.
Jose Lopez bunting in the first inning – yuck. I know Ichiro loved it, and Lopez’s selflessness motivated the MVP to steal 3rd on the very next pitch, but that’s still a lousy tactical decision.
8th inning, 2 run lead, we get Sean Green and George Sherrill. Awesome. Those guys are the two best non-Putz relievers in the pen, and for a team that is dead set on defining predetermined roles for their relievers, those two should be the ones being used in that spot.
J.J. Putz is on pace to finish the season throwing 79 2/3 innings and allowing 7 runs. The whole year. Seven runs. Jeff Weaver has given up 7 runs in a single game three times this year.
And, on a final note, Happy Felix Day.
Game 90, Orioles at Mariners
Burress vs Ramirez, 7:05 pm.
Horacio Ramirez is not a major league quality starting pitcher. The Baltimore Orioles aren’t a major league quality team. Resistible object, meet the movable force.
Sean Green
When evaluating the team’s strengths and weaknesses, there is a popular sentiment gaining traction (especially among local beat writers and columists) that the Mariners should begin exploring a trade for a right-handed setup man to take some of the load off of J.J. Putz, who made yet another multi-inning save on Saturday night. Here’s a snippet from the linked Art Thiel piece:
So in the two weeks left until the trade deadline, it seems the Mariners’ most urgent need is less a starting pitcher and more a veteran setup reliever who might also spell Putz.
And here’s a quick take from Geoff Baker’s latest blog entry:
J.J. Putz continues to carry the bullpen, but he cannot do it alone for the entire season. The need for a more dominant eighth-inning set-up man still appears to be there.
Both Thiel and Baker are smart guys, and while we don’t agree with everything they write, they follow the team closely and generally form their opinions around some evidence and logic. Both guys have decided that the M’s simply don’t have a reliever in the bullpen capable of skills that would deem him worthy of 8th inning, high leverage situations. Baker’s outlined his reasons for keeping George Sherrill in the left-handed specialist role, and while I disagree with his conclusion and would like to see Sherrill and his 1.26 ERA given a chance to pitch the 8th inning on his own (much as Arthur Rhodes used to do), that’s not what this post is about.
No, this post is about the criminally underrated Sean Green. In all the clamoring over the M’s need for a lights out right-handed setup man, the failures of Chris Reitsma and Brandon Morrow are often pointed to, while Green is a simple after thought. Indeed, it seems that both the Mariners, and those in favor of acquiring another right-handed setup guy, are focusing significantly more on velocity than production. Brandon Morrow was given the 8th inning because he throws hard, and now that he’s proven that he’s not yet a major league pitcher, the Mariners apparently need to replace him with another guy who also throws extremely hard.
Meanwhile, while radar gun lighter uppers like Brad Lidge, Kyle Farnsworth, Derrick Turnbow, and Fernando Cabrera mix impressive fastballs with inconsistent results, Sean Green just keeps getting people out when it matters. Since adjusting his delivery to drop down and get more tilt on his slider, Green has added a strikeout pitch to his already lethal sinker, and the results have been nothing sort of tremendous. However, because his fastball sits at 93 with movement instead of 98 and straight, apparently, he’s not worthy of the 8th inning role.
Or, as Thiel put it this morning, the ‘pen is full of guys who haven’t yet proven that they can get critical outs, because they’re young and untested. But isn’t giving opportunities to those players within the organization who have earned them part of building a championship team? I know Sean Green doesn’t have the velocity readings that some people covet, but don’t even the staunchest velocity lovers have to admit that it takes a back seat to performance at some point?
And, really, there’s no arguing with the performance of the 2007 Sean Green. When the team has called upon him to put out a fire, he’s done so with amazing consistency. Once again, let’s take a look at the incredible fangraphs play log for Green, sorting each of the at-bats against him by Leverage Index (LI on the chart), which is essentially just a number that quantifies how important the game scenario is. For those who love clutch performers, Leverage Index is your dream stat. Anyway, let’s look at how Green has done in the high leverage situations he’s been handed this year.
July 2nd, at KC, bottom of the 9th, tied at 2, 1 out, runners at 1st and 3rd
Eric O’Flaherty had just given up a double and a single, putting the winning run 90 feet away, and bringing Emil Brown to the plate. A routine flyball gives the Royals the win. Sean Green comes in and blows Emil Brown away, getting the strikeout for the 2nd out, and eliminating the chance for a sacrifice fly ending the game.
June 8th, at San Diego, top of the 9th, tied at 5
Green relieved Brandon Morrow to start the 9th inning of a tie game on the road, meaning a run equals a loss. After an error by Adrian Beltre put the winning run on base with nobody out, Green got out of the inning without the run scoring. He then was called on to also pitch the 10th, and after getting the first out, he gave up back to back singles to put the winning run in scoring position with only one out. He then struck out Rob Bowen and got a weak grounder from Russ Branyan to complete two scoreless innings, and the M’s would then win in 11 innings after a Raul Ibanez home run gave them the lead immediately thereafter.
June 9th, at San Diego, bottom of the 7th, trailing 5-4
The day after throwing two high leverage shutout innings, the M’s went back to the Sean Green well, asking him to keep their deficit at just one run. After getting an easy 1-2-3 seventh inning, the Mariners tied the game up in the top of the 8th, and Mike Hargrove sent Green back out for his 4th high leverage inning in 24 hours. He gave up a leadoff single, then got a groundball fielders choice that kept the runner at first base and struckout Russ Branyan before giving up another single that put the winning run on 3rd base with two out. Khalil Greene stepped to the plate. Khalil Greene struck out, and Green wrapped up another successful appearance. The M’s then took the lead in the top of the 9th and won when J.J. Putz shut it down.
July 12th, vs Tigers, top of the 7th, up 3-2, 1 out, runners at 1st and 2nd
Felix’s last start ended when the Tigers got two hits off of him in the 7th inning, putting the tying run in scoring position with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen due up. Sean Green got the call. He struck out Ordonez and got Guillen to weakly tap to first base. Inning over, rally quashed.
June 30th, vs Blue Jays, top of the 7th, up 3-1, 1 out, runners at 1st and 2nd
The Blue Jays chased Miguel Batista with a single and a walk to bring the go-ahead run to the plate. Green comes out of the pen and immediately induces an inning-ending double play. Inning over, rally quashed.
Those are the five highest leverage situations Green has been called into this year. He’s done yeoman’s work in all five, providing a huge boost to the team’s chances of winning each time, either through a clutch strikeout or a timely double play.
No, he hasn’t been perfect. He gave up a single to Michael Barrett to drive in the tying run in his second inning of work on June 12th against the Cubs, but then again, I’m pretty sure perfection isn’t the baseline by which we judge the quality of a setup man. If it was, we certainly wouldn’t be interested in failed closers from non-contenders, now would we?
By any measure you want to use, traditional or not, Sean Green has been tremendous this season. His ERA is 2.86, while his FIP is 3.60. Righties are only hitting .239/.307/.337 against him. The last 28 days, the league as a whole is hitting .214/.333/.286. He hasn’t given up a home run since his second appearance of the year. He’s inherited 21 baserunners – 3 have scored. He’s induced 6 double plays, most of any Mariner reliever, while only pitching 34 innings, and his double play rate is by far the highest on the team.
I don’t get it. Why are we in such a rush to replace Sean Green with a variety of pitchers who aren’t as good as Sean Green? Because he doesn’t throw hard enough?
I’d have thought the strikeout of Magglio Ordonez on Friday night would have opened some eyes. Sean Green has been establishing himself as a qualified high leverage right-handed setup man for the last month, even while the Mariners continue to try to force inferior pitchers like Brandon Morrow and Chris Reitsma into that role.
J.J. Putz has been tremendous this season, but Art, he’s had help – Sean Green and George Sherrill have also been big components in the Mariners bullpen cog, and they deserve better than the little respect they’re getting right now.
You want to trade for Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, or Eric Gagne, and surrender a quality young player or two in the process? I’ll stick with my man Sean Green, thanks, who will keep getting his groundballs and strikeouts while bailing the team out of jams and being an underappreciated reason this team is winning ballgames.
Weekend Roundup
The Mariners have to be at least somewhat pleased that they were able to split the series with a Tigers team that, let’s face it, is just better than the Mariners. Winning two games against that offense and a rotation of Miller-Bonderman-Rogers-Verlander is a tall order, and the M’s were able to keep themselves from taking a step backward against a good team. For most teams, the path the playoffs is playing .500 ball against contenders and beating the tar out of the pretenders, so there’s nothing wrong with splitting a series with a team that has a claim as the best in baseball.
With that positive disclaimer out of the way – the M’s got outplayed in every possible way this weekend and should count themselves very fortunate that they won a pair of games. As a team, they hit .231/.286/.358, but thanks to the fact that they got a lot of timely hits, they were able to put up 19 runs in four games. A .644 OPS does not often translate to 4.75 runs per game. On the flip side, the Tigers hit .297/.370/.483 but scored just 23 runs, significantly less than you’d expect from an .853 OPS. Pretty much all the clutch plays went in favor of the M’s, and well, that’s not a recipe for success.
Essentially, the M’s won two close games because they hit well at crucial times, Bruce Froemming blew a call, and the bullpen was unhittable. But in the other two games, the team didn’t really stand much of a chance, getting outclassed by a better opponent right out of the gates. The Mariners can look at this weekend as a success in the standings, no doubt, but if they were looking at this series as a litmus test for how well the team currently stacks up to the cream of the American League crop, well, there are reasons to worry. The Tigers were, without a doubt, the best team on the field this weekend. This roster, as currently composed, will be a significant underdog in any playoff series it might play.
One of the big stars of the series for the Tigers was center fielder Curtis Granderson, who torched Seattle pitchers on the way to an 8 for 16 series with two doubles, a triple, and a home run. Every time I turned around, Granderson was drilling a fastball into the alley and heading for extra bases. And, you know, he reminded me of someone. When I looked up the numbers that reflect a particular skillset, well, take a look for yourself:
Center Field BB% K% LD% BABIP ISO Granderson 7.5% 22.6% 23.0% 0.358 0.273 Adam Jones 7.3% 22.6% 22.0% 0.357 0.283
When we talk about promoting Adam Jones, one of the initial reactions from the skeptics is that he strikes out too much, and his current numbers suggest that his current skillset won’t translate well to the major leagues. Curtis Granderson disagrees. They have, essentially, almost identical skillsets. Think the Tigers should option Granderson to Toledo to work on his plate discipline?
Now, granted, we can’t just take Jones’ numbers against PCL pitchers and stick them in a major league line-up and expect identical performance. But the idea that Jones’ lack of walks and relatively high number of strikeouts expose some hidden flaw that will cause him to flail away helplessly at major league pitchers is just a myth. Granderson made a smooth transition from Triple-A to the majors two years ago, and he wasn’t as good a player then as Jones is now.
When you watched this series, which player did you think was making a bigger contribution to the Tigers – Curtis Granderson or Sean Casey? Which hitter were you afraid of? If the Tigers had to choose between Casey and Granderson, who do you think they’d pick?
Are we belaboring the point? Probably. But you know, this is a point that needs to be made – the Mariners fourth best position player is currently in Triple-A while the team fights for a playoff spot. That’s absurd, and it requires attention.
Game 89, Tigers at Mariners
Weaver vs Verlander, 1:05 pm.
Like Friday night’s game, this is another one the M’s will have to steal, because by all rights, they don’t really have any business winning a Weaver-Verlander matchup, even if Jeff has temporarily borrowed the Good Weaver costume the past few weeks.
Game 88, Tigers at Mariners
Batista vs Rogers, 7:05 pm.
Raul Ibanez since June 12th: .188/.225/.329
Raul Ibanez against lefties: .242/.255/.295
Rey Ordonez, career: .246/.289/.310
Maybe try not hitting Raul third tonight, guys? Anyone out there? Hello?
Bill Bavasi, Awesome Talker
If you’ve been to either of the USSM events where Bill joined us and candidly and openly discussed the team, you know that he’s a pretty funny dude. But he’s generally pretty reserved in his commentary to the media – his tombstone will probably decline to give the year he was born because that information is on a need to know basis – and keeps a pretty low profile compared to some other general managers.
Not anymore. In responding to the ridiculous assertion by Marlins president David Samson that Ichiro’s contract was “the end of the world as we know it”, Bavasi said this:
“My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is, ‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all,” Bavasi said Thursday. “So I’m not going to say anything at all. Is my mother the greatest or what?”
That’s hilarious on about 34 different levels.