One More Link
Well, apparently, Geoff Baker wasn’t happy about being upstaged by Ted Miller and Larry Stone this morning. So, he blew them away with his latest blog entry.
It’s 2,212 words of analytical goodness – a rational, even-handed evaluation of how the current roster and the team’s record should alter our opinion of the team’s general manager. I was thinking about writing something about what the first half says about Bill Bavasi, but you know what, why bother? Geoff just hit a home run, even if I don’t agree with everything he wrote. Go read his take instead. It’s worth your time.
At some point, we’re going to get tired of pointing out just how amazing the transformation has been from the last Seattle Times beat writer to the current one. I’m not there yet, though. Felix mixing his pitches has taken its place at the top of the list of Best Things To Happen To Mariner Fans in 2007, but Geoff Baker is a clear #2.
Local Paper Roundup
(Missed the post on the USSM/LL events in Everett and Tacoma? Check out the link, send an email, and join us at the park in August.)
Some good stories in the local papers this morning that I wanted to bring your attention to.
The always awesome Larry Stone writes about Ichiro and how the first half has influenced his chances of re-signing with the Mariners. It’s typical Stone – well written, informed, not speculative, and entertaining.
Meanwhile, Geoff Baker checks in on J.J. Putz becoming the veteran leader of the bullpen, finding himself surrounded by young kids. A worthwhile read.
Wrapping up the Times coverage, high-school student Michelle Conerly talks about Jeremy Reed and his future with the organization. Pretty standard sportswriter column, but considering that at no point during the column was I thinking “this was written by a teenager”, Michelle did a pretty nice job.
Over at the P-I, Ted Miller (who has written some stuff that made us want to throw things) wins the cool guy of the day award, jumping firmly on the Adam Jones bandwagon while quoting and referencing the blog multiple times. Maybe we haven’t given Miller a fair shake due to some of his past writings – most sportswriters would still rather eat bugs than admit that they read a “convincing argument” on a blog. Kudos to Miller.
In the Tribune, John McGrath tackles Putz from a how’d he get this good angle. The story is solid and full of interesting quotes.
And, finally, Kirby Arnold gives a report from Mark Lowe’s latest rehab stint up in Everett. Most importantly, he says his arm feels good, but he’s sitting at 89-91 with his fastball, showing he’s got a ways to go in building up arm strength. I don’t see any real reason for the M’s to rush Lowe back to Seattle.
Second Half Suggestions
And with that 7-3 win over the A’s, the first half of the season comes to a very enjoyable end. The M’s drove a stake into the heart of the A’s playoff chances, creating even further separation from the wild card pack, and establishing themselves as the real contender to the big four. As the team now gets three days to regroup during the all-star break and prepare for a second half that will hopefully provide the first playoff race this team has seen in several years. The latter part of this season will go a long way in deciding the future of the Mariners organization – will Ichiro re-sign, does the front office get removed from their hot seats while retaining their jobs, and how close are they to taking the step towards perennial contender with this core base of talent?
Those questions become easier to answer if this team has a strong second half and makes the playoffs. However, as currently configured, the Mariners simply aren’t one of the four best teams in the American League. Los Angeles, Detroit, Cleveland, and Boston are all clearly better teams (even if the Angels aren’t playing like it right now), and the Mariners have some work to do to make up ground on quality competition. There are some definite weak points on this roster that need to be addressed in order to give the team the best possible chance of turning a solid first half into a real playoff run. Most of these, we’ve already discussed, but since we have three days without Mariner baseball, and I know you guys love your roster speculation threads, here’s my mid-season suggestions on how to upgrade this team and make it a legitimate contender.
1. Promote Adam Jones from Tacoma and make him the everyday left fielder.
There’s not a team in baseball poised to make a bigger internal improvement than the Mariners by simply promoting from within. The Mariners outfield defense has been a disaster, and Raul Ibanez is the main reason why. While not lacking in the effort department, he’s shown his age with a complete lack of range, and hamstring issues have simply compounded the fact that he can’t cover enough ground to be a major league quality defensive outfielder. Because of the way Safeco Field is aligned, left field is a vastly more important defensive position than right field, and having a premium defensive outfielder play next to Ichiro to swallow the balls hit into the LF-CF gap would give the Mariners a large competitive advantage.
How big of an upgrade would Jones’ glove in left be from Ibanez’s? Well, without getting all mathy, I can tell you that advanced defensive metrics have Ibanez’s defense costing the Mariners approximately 15 runs over the first half of the season compared to an average defensive left fielder. 15 runs below average! That makes him something like the worst defensive player in baseball not named Manny Ramirez. If Adam Jones is simply an average defensive left fielder, the Mariners should expect, at minimum, a 10 run second half improvement (Ibanez probably isn’t really a -30 defender over the course of a full season, so we regress his projected performance accordingly) simply by removing Ibanez from left field and replacing him with AJ.
Now, Adam Jones has made huge strides defensively while playing center field in Tacoma, and most scouting reports grade him out as a solid defensive center fielder right now. What happens when you take a solid defensive center fielder and stick him in left field at Safeco? Well, the Mariners did that for several years with Randy Winn, who was routinely rated as 10 to 15 runs above an average defensive left fielder while with the Mariners. Jones’ range now is superior to that of the 2003-2005 Randy Winn. Realistically, I think we should expect Jones to be something like 5 to 10 runs better than an average defensive left fielder during the second half of the season.
Combine Ibanez’s -10 with Jones +5 (and those are conservative rankings), you’re looking at a 15 run improvement on defense alone. To give you an idea of what 15 runs over half a season looks like, let’s scale it to ERA. Let’s take Miguel Batista’s current ERA, then subtract 15 runs per 90 innings and show you the new ERA as a reference point for what that kind of savings looks like in half a season.
Miguel Batista: 4.54 – 2.87
Replacing Raul Ibanez in left field with Adam Jones projects to have about the same run prevention impact on the team that trading Miguel Batista for Johan Santana would.
Let that sink in for a second.
The Mariners can, in one move, make a second half run prevention improvement equal to that of turning a #4 starter into a Cy Young winner.
And that’s just the defensive improvement! That doesn’t even factor in the possibility that Adam Jones becomes Seattle’s version of Ryan Braun (called up from Triple-A in May, currently hitting .342/.382/.645 as the #3 hitter for the first place Brewers) and gives the Mariners a significant offensive boost over the nothing performance they got from Jose Vidro in the first half.
This move has to happen. It’s such a monumental upgrade that the team cannot continue to ignore the tangible, real effects it would have on making the playoffs, and that’s what this second half has to be all about.
2. Do not trade for Matt Morris. Whatever you do, leave him alone.
I wrote this post before Mark Buehrle re-signed with the White Sox, and #2 was originally an advocation for the M’s to get a deal done for the Chicago lefty. Now that that’s not an option, I’m simply asking the organization to please, please, please not be fooled by the mirage that is Matt Morris’ ERA. I know that he’s a veteran, and he’s playoff tested, and the sparkly ERA makes it a trifecta of things the franchise usually looks for in a pitcher, but you guys usually pick sucky pitchers, so let’s try to not fall into the same trap that keeps bringing us bad pitchers at high costs again, okay?
Yes, the team needs another starter. I’ll figure out who I want that to be in a few days. But I know that I don’t want it to be Matt Morris. Please don’t trade for him. Please.
3. Option Brandon Morrow to Triple-A Tacoma, promote Kam Mickolio to Seattle.
For all the talk about the potential return of Mark Lowe, Mickolio may very well have the best arm of any guy in Tacoma and be in the best position to help the Mariners as a power right-handed reliever down the stretch. He’s 6’9, throws a 96 MPH four-seam fastball, has a sinking two-seamer and a cut fastball that keep left-handers off balance, and has dominated since the Mariners selected him in the 18th round last summer. Remember Brandon Morrow’s dominant May, where he threw 18 consecutive scoreless innings with simply an overpowering fastball? That’s Kam Mickolio right now, except Mickolio is a few inches taller and has better command.
Bring Mickolio up to work some low leverage innings in the old Jason Davis role and get his feet wet in the majors for a few weeks. By the time mid-August rolls around, if he’s made the proper adjustments and is pitching as well as I suspect he may, you have yet another power arm to put in front of J.J. Putz and get strikeouts from the right side in the 8th inning. Mickolio’s trial also buys Mark Lowe time to work on his arm strength and rust after a year off from pitching, and gives Morrow a chance to improve his command and breaking ball in a low stress environment. The six weeks both can spend down in Triple-A would give the Mariners a chance to evaluate their progress and potentially bring them back up at the end of August if they’d shown they’re ready to go.
Ideally, the team would head into the September stretch run with a bullpen of Putz-Sherrill-Mickolio-Green-O’Flaherty-Lowe/Morrow-Reitsma, giving them a variety of power arms from the left and right side and allowing the team to be extremely aggressive in removing struggling starting pitchers early in critical games.
And, really, there’s almost no downside to this move. If I’m wrong about Mickolio, and he doesn’t adjust well to the majors right away, you simply ship him back to Tacoma and promote Mark Lowe, giving him the spot the team had been reserving for him anyways. No harm, no foul.
4. Platoon Broussard, Ibanez, Guillen, Sexson, and Vidro.
With the Adam Jones promotion, the M’s would have three spots for five guys. Thankfully, two of them are left-handed, two are right-handed, and the other is a switch hitter, making for easy natural platoons and many interchangeable pieces. Guillen/Ibanez can run a platoon in right field, with Sexson/Broussard platooning at first base, and whichever of those two aren’t playing can rotate at DH with Jose Vidro. Vidro should get the least amount of playing time in these scenarios, essentially being limited to DH against lefties, with Sexson/Ibanez getting most of the DH time against right-handed pitching.
The M’s are shooting themselves in the foot by ignoring the huge platoon splits their veteran hitters are putting up. Raul Ibanez is hitting .258/.272/.315 against left-handed pitching. Jose Guillen is hitting .242/.306/.361 against right-handed pitching. Those are horrible marks, and both guys are consistently being put in the middle of the line-up against same-handed pitchers, despite the fact that they’re killing the team by being put into situations they simply don’t have the skills to succeed in.
An Ibanez/Guillen platoon would give the Mariners one of the more productive offensive right-fielders in baseball. Broussard getting at-bats in lieu of Vidro would also be an instant upgrade, and by rotating the five guys through the RF/1B/DH roles, you keep the banged up veterans more healthy by giving them partial days off and not forcing them to play the field everyday.
Manage the roster to put players in roles they are best suited to succeed in.
5. Restructure the batting orders to account for the roster moves.
The team’s line-up would have a different look to it with Adam Jones in it, and it needs a slight overhaul anyways. So, here are my proposed normal line-ups, with their OPS (as of Saturday, when I wrote this) vs LH/RH to the side.
Vs RHP:
1. Ichiro, CF, .860
2. Ibanez, RF, .819
3. Beltre, 3B, .800
4. Broussard, 1B, .808
5. Sexson, DH, .724
6. Johjima, C, .701
7. Lopez, 2B, .745
8. Jones, LF, (AAA – .938)
9. Betancourt, SS, .626
Vs LHP:
1. Ichiro, CF, .903
2. Betancourt, SS, .829
3. Guillen, RF, 1.117
4. Beltre, 3B, .817
5. Sexson, 1B, .730
6. Johjima, C, 1.094
7. Lopez, 2B, .648
8. Jones, LF, (AAA – .981)
9. Vidro, DH, .723
In both line-ups, the Mariners are grouping their good hitters at the top of the order, and getting power guys behind Ichiro to start driving him in. They’ve been wasting far too many chances with the powerless Jose Vidro hitting second and sticking Ibanez/Guillen in RBI spots against same-handed pitchers. This gets away from Hargrove’s “same line-up, everyday” approach, but hopefully John McLaren is smart enough to realize that’s a foolish way to run a ballclub. The other contenders don’t follow that belief, and there’s no evidence supporting the idea that guys perform better if they’re locked into a certain spot in the batting order. Put the best team on the field to beat that day’s starting pitcher.
After implementing all these moves, the team would have a stronger offense against both lefties and righties, a significantly improved defense that would have a tremendous positive impact on the pitching staff, and a bullpen that rivals any in baseball.
This is a roster that you can contend with, one that can give the Angels a run for the division and makes the Mariners legitimate wild-card contenders. Most of these moves should be relatively simple to pull off, and serve to set the team up better for both the stretch run as well as 2008 and beyond.
These are bold moves, and a significant reshaping of a team in a playoff race, but they’re the kind of moves that the organization needs to make. Don’t rest on your laurels – improve the roster and give us a winning team.
(And yes, you guys can use this thread to post your own trade/roster suggestions. It’s the only one you’re getting the rest of the year, so have fun.)
Game 85, Mariners at A’s
Feierabend vs Blanton, 1:05 pm.
No matter what happens today, it won’t be as cool as yesterday. But I’d still like to head into the all-star break with a win. Putting more distance between the M’s and A’s is a nice bonus as well.
Felix, Mixing Pitches, And The Power of the Internet
Via Geoff Baker:
“Chaves gave me a report,” Hernandez said. “On the internet, they say when I throw a lot of fastballs in the first inning, they score a lot of runs. I tried to mix all my pitches in the first inning.”
Today, Felix threw a slider on the 3rd pitch of the game, then a curveball on the fifth pitch, getting Shannon Stewart to flyout to center. All told, he threw 3 breaking balls in his first 8 pitches, threw a first pitch slider to the 5th hitter of the game, and attacked almost every hitter with a variable selection of fastballs and breaking balls.
He gave up 2 hits in 8 innings.
Now, correlation is not causation. Maybe the A’s hitters just aren’t very good, and maybe Felix is just bound to dominate line-ups like this because his stuff is off the charts.
But you know, I love seeing Felix trying something new. Its extremely encouraging that he took some information made available to him and made adjustments to improve his approach.
That Chaves was able to use the the open letter from the blog to help drive home a point he’d already been making, well, that’s just the cherry on top. But Felix deserves all the credit in the world for this. He and Chaves did the work, and they’re the ones who tossed a shutout at the A’s today. We just get to enjoy the fruits of Good Felix.
Long Live King Felix.
Game 84, Mariners at A’s
Hernandez vs Harden, 1:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day is ruined by Fox’s arcane blackout rules, which prevent everyone in the country from seeing this game. MLB continues their stupid anti-fan policies, which prevent people from enjoying their product and exposing the game’s best pitchers to a new generation of fans.
But, regardless of the fact that no one can see it, the M’s will still play. Felix takes the hill, and once again, we all scream in unison – Mix. Your. Pitches.
Game 83, Mariners at A’s
Weaver vs Haren, 7:05 pm.
Geoff Baker jumped on the Adam Jones to left field bandwagon. Huzzah. At this point, the only people who apparently aren’t in favor of making this move immediately are the Mariners and Jose Vidro’s mother.
Also, Jason Davis DFA’d to clear a roster spot for Chris Reitsma. Good – now we’re down to one tall, skinny, right-handed reliever with no command of his only pitch.
Be nice if the M’s could steal this one tonight.
An Appeal for Action
The M’s lost a tough 3-2 game last night, wasting a good performance from Miguel Batista and a chance to really put some distance between themselves and the A’s in the wild card race. They lost because they didn’t hit. Chad Gaudin, while enjoying a career year, is not a shutdown starting pitcher. Playoff teams have to be able to score more than two runs against the guy.
We’ve talked about the team’s glaring problems preventing runs many times, but now, it’s time for the organization to admit that they have some issues scoring runs as well. This offense is still good, but it could be better. Since June 12th, a stretch of 22 games, the team has hit .270/.332/.382 and scored just 90 runs. There’s been a significant shortage of power, especially lately, as the team has hit 1 home run in the last 8 games.
The M’s have gotten comfortable with being able to win despite having some holes in their line-up, but that needs to change. If the organization is serious about giving Detroit and Anaheim a run for those two playoff spots, they have to put the best players on the field everyday.
There is no longer any justification, beyond ignorance or outright stubbornness, for Jose Vidro to be the everyday designated hitter. Against right-handed pitching, he’s inferior to Ben Broussard in every way that matters. He’s hitting for a lower average, getting on base less, hitting for less power, hitting into more double plays, and generally being an outmachine at the top of the order. Even if you’re going to ignore Adam Jones, what’s the justification for Vidro playing more than Broussard? He strikes out less? The team has struck out 402 times, fewer than any other major league club.
This team does need not a DH who doesn’t strike out – they have seven other guys in the line-up who don’t strike out. It’s okay to not break the all-time record for fewest strikeouts. Really. What they need is a guy who can hit the ball over the wall. Ben Broussard can do that.
Broussard should be in the line-up every single game a right-handed pitcher takes the field. Stick him at first when Richie Sexson is banged up (like, uhh, he is now), and stick him at DH when the team is at full strength. There’s no reason that another game should go by with a right-handed pitcher on the hill and Ben Broussard on the bench.
Get over Jose Vidro’s batting average. He’s still living off his .318 April. Since May 1st, he’s hitting .275/.349/.329, a .678 OPS that would be disappointing for a backup catcher. For a starting DH, it’s embarrassing.
You made a mistake when you traded for Jose Vidro last winter. Buck up, admit it, and put him on the bench.
Contend or attempt to justify a horrible trade through stubbornness. Those are your options. I vote for A.
Game 82, Mariners at A’s
Batista vs Gaudin, 7:05 pm.
M’s kick off their final series before the all-star break with a chance to put some distance between themselves and the A’s.
USSM/Lookout Landing Event Announcement
Interest level was high enough that we’re going to make this happen. Jeff Sullivan and I are both going to be flying into town and hosting a pair of trips to the ballpark at the beginning of August. We’ve been putting on USSM events for several years now, and without fail, people always suggest that we should do them more often, so this year, we’re doubling the fun, and throwing in some minor league action to boot. Here are the official details:
Where: Cheney Stadium, Tacoma
When: Thursday, August 2nd
How Much: $25 per person
Includes: Ticket to game in USSM/LL seating area, hot dog, chips, and soda
and
Where: Everett Memorial Stadium, Everett
When: Friday, August 3rd
How Much: $20 per person
Includes: Ticket to game in USSM/LL seating area, fun time to be had by all
If you’ve ever been to a USSM event before, you know that we generally try pretty hard to make sure you get your money’s worth, and I’d expect these two games to be no different. Seeing as how the games occur just a couple of days after the trade deadline, we’ll certainly have no shortage of interesting topics to discuss, as well as just enjoying some Rainiers/Aquasox baseball.
Due to the nature of buying tickets in advance, we’re asking people to pay when they register so that we can avoid taking a bath on last minute no-shows. So, if you want to reserve a spot to either (or both) games, you need to:
Send an email to ussmarinerfeed@gmail.com.
In the subject, put Everett or Tacoma, followed by the number of guests you’re registering – i.e. Everett, (2)
In the body of the email, give us the full names of the people you are registering for.
If you are registering for both games, please send two seperate emails – it will make it easier for me to keep the registration accurate if I can separate the emails by event.
After your registration has been received, I’ll send out a confirmation email letting you know how to send payment. You are not officially registered until your payment has been received, so please plan on having your payment sent out in a timely fashion. We’re going to cap the attendance of the events in order to make it a more enjoyable experience for everyone, so if you want to attend, I highly suggest getting on the list as soon as possible.
Questions about the events, feel free to use the comments below, and I’ll answer them as best as I can.