Game 81, Mariners at Royals
Washburn vs Bannister, 5:10 pm.
Ryan Feierabend torched, M’s lose to Reds 16-1. M’s proceed to win 8 straight games.
Ryan Feierabend torched, M’s lose to Royals 17-3. Let’s hope history repeats itself.
Game 80, Mariners at Royals
Feierabend vs De La Rosa, 5:10 pm.
With Sexson out for the evening and the team facing a lefty, John McLaren got a little creative with tonight’s line-up.
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Vidro, 1B
3. Ibanez, DH
4. Guillen, RF
5. Johjima, C
6. Beltre, 3B
7. Betancourt, SS
8. Lopez, 2B
9. Bloomquist, LF
I may surprise some people here, but I actually like the fact that he’s sticking Turbo at first base. Sexson’s a lousy defensive player, so sticking Vidro at first isn’t much of a downgrade, while Bloomquist can run circles around Ibanez in left field. Which is important, considering that Feierabend is a pretty extreme flyball/contact pitcher, so outfield defense is vital. This line-up acknowledges that Ibanez is a problem in left field, and that’s a huge concession that we all should be rooting for the Mariners to make. The more people running the club realize that Ibanez wearing an outfielder’s glove is killing them, the more likely it is we see Adam Jones in Seattle in the not too distant future.
Beyond that, though, figuring out if Vidro can play a passable first base is a worthy endeavor, especially with 2008 in mind. The team has to figure out a way to clear the glut at DH to get Ibanez off the field and Jones in the line-up, and if Vidro’s even relatively competent at first base, it increases the odds that the M’s would be willing to go with a Broussard/Vidro platoon at first base next year.
How they get rid of Sexson and how willing Ibanez would be to move to DH are questions for another day, but this is a start, at least, towards moving to the most sensible line-up the Mariners can run out there, given all the bad players they’re paying too much to.
If today’s line-up is even one small step towards Adam Jones in left field and Ibanez at DH, then Richie Sexson’s bruised thumb might be the team MVP.
Future Forty Updated for July
The monthly Future Forty update has been uploaded to the site. Yes, I know, the date still says 4/30/07 for last update, but you’ll just have to trust me that the new file is online.
This is a pretty big update. Lots of changes stemming from additions, subtractions, promotions, and injuries, as well as getting better scouting info on a good number of players, leading to some revised risk and reward rankings, as well as a few guys bouncing from one category to the other. The draft, obviously, occurred since the last update, and the team’s top two selections – Phillipe Aumont and Matt Mangini – both find their way onto the Future Forty. I’m planning a longer draft review post for later on, so I won’t focus on either of those two, or the other draftees, that much in this post.
Also debuting is 18-year-old RHP Juan Ramirez, who we’ve talked about in the past as the guy you want to see when you take a road trip up to Everett. With Ramirez and Aumont, the M’s have added two more high ceiling pitchers to the low levels of the farm system. Speaking of high ceiling arms, I speculated during last month’s post that I believed Tony Butler was pitching through an injury, and sure enough, he hit the DL a few days later. He’s had a year to forget, battling reduced velocity, “dead arm”, back problems, shoulder pain, and a complete lack of command. We’ll wait to see how the M’s handle him going forward, but it may be in his best interest to just sit out the rest of the season and try to get back on track during the Fall Instructional League.
Also, the Chris Tillman to High Desert experiment has predictably been a disaster. I’m sure the Mariners and their make-prospects-fail philosophy see this as an opportunity for the kid to overcome adversity, but he just has no business in the Cal League. We’ll see how he responds, but I’m still of the opinion that throwing a kid in the pool and making him learn how to swim in order to save his own life is bad parenting, and this is the baseball equivalent of that.
Moving on to happier news, Adam Jones!
Speaking of Tacoma, Wladimir Balentien’s performance in June was probably the most impressive he’s had as a professional. We talked about his sliding scale abilities last year, where he showed he could hit for power and show an improved approach at the plate, but just not at the same time. Well, that carried over to April and May, where he torched the ball early in the season but didn’t walk, then saw his average fall apart as he got more patient in May. In June, for the first time, he finally put the whole package together – high contact rate (for him, anyways), high walk rate, and power. There’s still some work to do, but it appears that he has made The Leap, and he’s on the doorstep of being a bonafide major league player. A scout friend of mine last week talked about how much Balentien reminded him of Magglio Ordonez, and that comparison actually holds up pretty well. As long as he keeps working hard, he looks like he’s going to become a cross between Carlos Lee and Magglio, which is a better player than I ever expected Balentien to turn into. He deserves a lot of credit for his significant improvement this year.
Matt Tuiasasopo’s strikeout rate by month: 15.0%. 19.8%, 26.7%. I think pitchers in the Southern League have made their adjustments. Now it’s time for Tui to make his.
One name we probably haven’t talked about enough is Kameron Mickolio. He was an 18th round pick last summer and is looking like an absolute steal a year later. At 6’9 with long arms, he’s an intimidating presence on the mound, and he can get his fastball up to the plate at 94-96 consistently. He’s mixing in a cut fastball to keep left-handers off balance and, after a rough debut, has settled in to blowing away PCL hitters after his promotion from West Tennessee to Tacoma. Mickolio is basically Brandon Morrow with better command right now. With Morrow proving more and more with every appearance that he simply isn’t a major league pitcher and can’t be counted on in any kind of high leverage situation, the M’s may give Mickolio a serious look before the end of the year. A lot of people are hoping Mark Lowe can come back and give the M’s another devastating right-handed setup man, but if I was going to pick a guy from the organization who could help the bullpen in the second half, it’d be Mickolio. And he was an 18th round pick just 13 months ago. This is why we love Bob Fontaine.
Oh, and I guess I should mention that Michael Saunders will join Wladimir Balentien in playing the outfield for the World Team in the Futures Game next week. I’m still not very impressed with Saunders. He gets high marks for his athleticism, but I don’t think he has the bat to carry himself as a corner outfielder or the glove to play center. He’s only 20, and I’ve been wrong about plenty of guys before, so feel free to keep an eye on him, but I’m just not very excited about his skillset.
As always, feel free to use this thread for any prospect/minor league questions you may have.
Game 79, Mariners at Royals
Hernandez vs Meche, 5:05 pm.
Mix Your Pitches. Mix Your Pitches. Mix Your Pitches. Mix Your Pitches. Mix Your Pitches. Mix Your Pitches.
Also, McLaren’s first day as a manager. We’ll welcome him USSM style: Vidro in the two spot? Humbug. The guy doesn’t do anything better than Ben Broussard except eat fatty foods and age poorly.
Happy (?) Felix Day.
Mark Buehrle
The will-he-or-won’t-he saga of Mark Buehrle being traded appears about ready to end. The White Sox refusal to give him a no-trade clause in return for signing a vastly below market contract has reportedly killed the chances of Buehrle re-signing with Chicago. The impasse makes it likely that GM Kenny Williams will move Buehrle at some point after tonight’s game, and probably very soon. He likes to make deals quickly, and he won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a trade if he’s offered the players in return he is looking for.
Buehrle won’t come cheaply. The White Sox reportedly want 22-year-old outfielder Matt Kemp in any deal with the Dodgers, and to put that in Mariner terms, Kemp is essentially Adam Jones with less defensive value, or a somewhat better version of Wladimir Balentien. Balentien’s performance in the PCL this year matches that of Kemp’s, but he doesn’t have the same track record of success or raw athletic skills.
So, if the Mariners were to get into the Mark Buehrle sweepstakes while not trading Adam Jones (the White Sox would almost certainly make that one-for-one trade immediately, but the M’s are pretty much dead set against trading Jones), they’re looking at giving up a multi-prospect package that certainly include Balentien. Depending on who else the White Sox were interested in, you’re probably looking at having to include one or two of Jeff Clement, Ryan Feierabend, Justin Thomas, Chris Tillman, Rob Johnson, or Greg Halman as well.
So, my guess is that the cost for Mark Buehrle would be something like one of the following packages:
Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement
Wladimir Balentien, Ryan Feierabend, and Rob Johnson
Wladimir Balentien, Chris Tillman, and Greg Halman
The specific names aren’t going to be right, as I’m speculating on what the offers are, and haven’t heard any specific rumors of a Mariner package going to Chicago. The point is to try to give you an idea of what the cost would be.
So, now, the big question – is he worth it?
First, let’s do away with the myth that Mark Buerhle isn’t a frontline starting pitcher. He clearly is. His command is impeccable, and he throws strikes with average to above average stuff. He’s not a guy who is just throwing hittable pitches over the plate and hoping that batters get themselves out. His stuff is legitimate, major league quality. He doesn’t strikeout as many guys as the typical Cy Young winners, but he’s not Horacio Ramirez. Command and movement are valuable weapons, and Buehrle has both in spades.
After a poor season last year, he’s bounced back quite well, posting numbers right in line with his usual performance from his career marks. He’s not quite as good as his current ERA would have you believe, but his 4.16 xFIP is still well above average, and a full run better than the xFIPs being posted by Miguel Batista (5.03), Jarrod Washburn (5.07), Jeff Weaver (5.13), or Ryan Feierabend (5.59).
Mark Buehrle would become an instant significant upgrade in the rotation. His skillset is perfectly matched for Safeco Field’s dimensions, as he’s an LHP with a slight home run problem. He’s extremely durable and is among the lowest risk tier of pitcher you can possibly find. A potential rotation of Buehrle-Felix-Washburn-Batista, when combined with the Mariners bullpen, is good enough to give the team a legitimate chance of winning a playoff series.
The main sticking point for most people is the contract. He’s a free agent at years-end, and numerous reports have him stating a strong desire to pitch in St. Louis, where he grew up. Odds are pretty good that Mark Buehrle would simply be a three month rental, bolting for another team this winter. You know what? Not only am I okay with that, but I actually prefer that. As I showed a few weeks ago, the rate of return from players taken with compensatory draft picks is essentially equal to that of players traded in rent-a-player deals, while the rate of return of pitchers given long term contracts is disastrously horrible.
The Mariners wouldn’t be trading a package of prospects for three months of Mark Buehrle. The Mariners would be trading a package of prospects for three months of Mark Buehrle and another package of prospects. Yes, you push the timetable for the return back a year or two, as no one the Mariners would draft next summer will be major league ready as quickly as a guy like Balentien or Feierabend. But you cannot ignore the significant value returned by the compensation picks. Deals like this are not mortgaging the future – it’s more like a home equity line of credit. You’re borrowing from the future, but you’re paying the debt off very quickly.
Mark Buehrle makes the Mariners better in a hurry. Good enough to catch Detroit for the wild card? I don’t know. Detroit’s an awfully good team. But Buerhle gives the Mariners a real shot. He makes the Mariners legitimate contenders. Mark Buehrle makes the second half of the season a playoff race.
The team has won 8 in a row. They essentially eliminated the Blue Jays from playoff contention this weekend, and now they head to Kansas City and Oakland with a chance to head into the all-star break on a significant high. The team has earned the right to fight for a playoff spot. Let’s hope the Mariners are able to make a move for the only pitcher available this summer who resembles anything like reinforcements.
Change in Managers
What an interesting ride that was. Two and a half years ago, the Mariners hired Mike Hargrove to take over as the field manager for a team that was trying to find an identity. At the end of the 2005 season, the Mariners created an “administrative coach” position for former Tacoma manager Dan Rohn, who had done nothing but win in Triple-A but was tired of managing in the Pacific Coast League, in order to keep him from leaving the organization. Midway into his second losing season, en route to another last place finish, reports began to surface of friction between the manager and front office, as well as Hargrove and some players. Towards the end of last year, Rohn was fired for insubordination – essentially, he was undermining Hargrove to some of the players on the team – and, at the same time, bench coach Ron Hassey, a close personal friend of Hargrove’s, was also fired. Then, Hargrove was unexpectedly retained as manager for the 2007 season, despite an almost universal belief that they were going to let him go.
Now, halfway into the Mariners most successful season in years, fresh off a seven game winning streak over quality teams such as Boston and Toronto, Mike Hargrove has decided to walk away on his own.
If any of that makes sense to you, raise your hand. We don’t know why Hargrove made this decision, and I’m going to avoid speculation on his reasons, beyond his “accumulation of 35 years” answer that he gave the press today.
So, Mike Hargrove is out, and John McLaren is the manager for at least the rest of the season. What does this mean to the team?
Well, for the most part, I think managers just don’t make as much of a difference as most people believe. There are a few exceptionally good and bad ones, but in general, good teams win in spite of bad managers and bad teams lose in spite of good managers. We’ve laid out our issues with some of Hargrove’s beliefs, and a couple of days ago, we actually complimented how he’s handled the bullpen. So he has done some good things and some bad things.
But, I’m not particularly worried about how the team is going to do under John McLaren. The talent on the field isn’t changing, and this team isn’t 11 games over .500 because of Mike Hargrove. John McLaren is his own guy, and things will probably change in some ways, but in the end, the team is still the team.
In the end, I’m interested to see how McLaren manages and am optimistic that there’s a chance that some of the things the team has done that drive me nuts might end. But, really, this isn’t likely to be a huge deal either way. Managers just don’t really matter all that much.
Game 78, Blue Jays at Mariners
Weaver vs Marcum, 1:05 pm.
Mike Hargrove’s fairwell party hopes to end with the Mariners celebrating their 8th straight win. Let’s hope the pixie dust Weaver used in June came with a supply for July as well.
M’s to make announcement
The Mariners have called a press conference for 11:30 am to make a “major announcement”.
I don’t know what the news is, but here are my guesses.
60% – Ichiro extension
25% – Bavasi/Hargrove extensions
10% – Trade Announcement
5% – Free Ninento Wii for Derek
An extension for Ichiro would make my day.
Late Edit: Commenter ebcmc got this one right – according to Larry Stone (via Geoff Baker), Mike Hargrove is resigning as manager of the Mariners. Given the team’s recent performance, this is almost certainly not baseball related. While we’ve never been huge Mike Hargrove fans, we wish him all the best in his future, and hope that everything is okay with him and his family.