Comments on: Game 114, Mariners at White Sox

By: bmanuw

bmanuw — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 21:51:54 +0000

Checking the scoreboard… apparently the Yankees will never lose again.

By: Rydogg2122

Rydogg2122 — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 20:32:38 +0000

I don’t really care for Lopez hitting 2nd either. Why not try Jones there?

By: bunk_medal

bunk_medal — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 20:29:14 +0000

481 – This is good of course, but it only ever seems to be a product of some arbitrary “it’s Sunday so we give everyone a rest” logic. You know that if these moves actually made the team significantly worse then not only would we still make them, but we’d make as many of them as we can possibly make in the same game just because “it’s Sunday”. For that reason I’m not going to applaud the lineup today, it’s a symptom of the problem with how the team’s managed, it just so happens that when it comes to Sunday games blind adherence to arbitrary baseball rules makes the team better by default.

By: chi sf

chi sf — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 20:26:15 +0000

Can McLaren stop hitting Lopez 2nd vs lefties? He’s hitting .225/.273/.326 against them. That’s awful.

By: lailaihei

lailaihei — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 20:19:01 +0000

Is there any site that has the UZR for every Mariner?
Or one like here…
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_american_league/
Except up to date?

By: Rydogg2122

Rydogg2122 — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 20:13:35 +0000

Jones in, Ibanez DH, Burke catching today. Turbo sits.

By: DMZ

DMZ — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 19:50:21 +0000

Win Shares include defense.

Win Shares are not a good metric.

Also: there’s no evidence clutch hitting is a skill, much less something worth considering in putting together lineups.

And “.. when I see stats used that seem to contradict my observations I begin to question the application of the data.”

This is, by far, the hardest thing for people getting into this stuff to get over, and I sympathize, because I’ve been there before. But it should be the other way around. There are many, many people who for years swore that Derek Jeter was the best defensive shortstop they’d ever seen because he looked so good out there, never mind that you could look at the stats and see he just did not make as many plays as his peers.

You don’t want to be that guy. Don’t dismiss either side, but you should really consider that if the weight of evidence is against what you see, perhaps there’s something else you’re not seeing.

By: rufusgufus

rufusgufus — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 19:47:45 +0000

We can all see that he doesn’t belong in the outfield but I still can’t quite wrap my mind around the statistical argument against Ibanez in the Batting order.

He has been in a prolonged slump but his “win shares” are middle of the outfield pack and comparable to Abreu, M.Rameriz, Matsui, Guillen, etc. – I presume they are not coming with his leather.

I don’t know the statistical arguments for hitting with men on base not being a repeatable skill but Ibanez hit .337 RISP/.377 RISP 2 outs last year, .343 close & late in 2005.

I am just a casual observer of the games but when I see stats used that seem to contradict my observations I begin to question the application of the data.

By: terry

terry — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 16:42:42 +0000

#473: THT gives him roughly 7 RC for what is essentially non-repeatable skill….i.e. his BA is roughly 60 pts higher with RISP than overall this season. Clutch is neat and all but Ibanez’s is driven entirely by batting average which I think might make a lot of people bristle.

But lets ignore that issue for a moment. Context is everything with stats. Raul does have the 4th highest RC total for left fielders in the AL (12th highest for left fielders in the majors) but he also has the 5th highest number of PA for left fielders in the AL (12th highest for LFers in the majors). If his RC are normalized for 600 PA’s things look dramatically different. Looking at left fielders with at least 350 PA thus far (i.e. other starting left fielders; 19 of them), Raul’s normalized THT RC total would be 88 compared to the group average of 91 and he’d be ranked 12th out of 19. If you don’t honor his bonus for BA represented by THT’s clutch, then he’d have 78 RC over 600 PAs ranking him 16th out of 19 left fielders who’ve had at least 350 PAs.

Raul seems to have a lot of RC but then again he’s burned a lot of PA’s as well…. Factor in his defensive innings and he’s really resembling a black hole. Basically using the RC argument to defense Raul’s playing time essentially reduces his value down to an ability to have a hyperbolically higher average with RISP than overall. That’s a tenuous place to be as a major leaguer…

By: AUTO Renegade

AUTO Renegade — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 13:34:54 +0000

[and there's the ballgame]