That’s how you stop getting booed
Dave · August 13, 2007 at 10:03 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Richie Sexson absolutely crushed two pitches tonight. In every other park in baseball, it’s a two homer night. Either way, he gets to wear the hero’s cape for the evening, after donning the goat horns way too many times this summer. Big win for the M’s – any time you can knock off Johan Santana, you have to take it.
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Seriously. He deserves it.
I thought his post-game interview was classic. He said what was was on our minds: that he has sucked… that he deserves it… and that he reallt IS trying to turn things around.
Great job, Sexson. GO M’s!
So are we starting to warm up to Richie? He’s the only guy on this team who can really carry an offense. Richie getting hot would be huge.
Bill Kruger talking about Vidro just now, sounded really angry while making a point that our DH doesn’t have to hit for power.
And DESERVEDLY so.
Richie, you earned those boos…but you also earned tonight’s cheers. Up to you what’s gonna come next…
Kreuger would probably also argue that he was a good pitcher.
2, Haha.. I heard that. I felt like he was leaning out of my television and talking to me directly.
if richie hits .250 the rest of the year, i’ll be happy.
And you don’t have to have a good hitter for leadoff…but it seems like most teams do, and IT’S NOT THAT HARD TO GET ONE….
Cripes….
Is that the first walk-off Funk Blast?
Who better to do it than Richie? He really needed it.
Blow the roof off this sucker!
I was also surprised that the double didn’t leave the yard. It seemed like it was crushed harder than two-thirds of the homers that the M’s hit in Baltimore and Chicago. It just goes to show how much of a pitcher’s park Safeco really is.
I will warm up to any player who contributes to victories. I am not warming up to John Parrish.
10 – Or just how bad of a slump Richie’s been in. The look on Richie’s face when he connected with that first pitch was priceless. He was so surprised. It was only fate that the ball didn’t go out. Just to get Richie, and the rest of us, a little mad. The best was yet to come.
Funny how some guys react when they hear footsteps behind them.
AJ & BB = serving a purpose just being available.
That was a wierd ending to FSN’s coverage. Split screen announcers talking at the same time. Right after that, “And we’re talking at the same time. Goodbye.”
#12 — I don’t think that AJ and Broussard have any effect on the play of Ibanez and Sexson. Broussard has been on the roster all year, and Sexson was legitimately hurting the club while he hit in the middle of the order. AJ’s appearance coincided with Ibanez getting healthy and hitting in homer friendly parks.
Richie, congratulations on the career high five game hitting streak! Go M’s!
and he seems more upset that the other guys are catching the boo flak, because unlike him, they don’t deserve it … oh, and a little baffled that fans would be booing a winning team
I do have to wonder if maybe there a lot of people who have somehow missed that the team is 3 out in the division, leading the WC, and IIRC, has something like the 3rd best record in baseball
But msb, that’s just results based analysis.
:O
First time we’re 16 over .500, right? Unreal. John MacLaren’s guardian angel is watching over him again.
Booing is lame.
I don’t think that AJ and Broussard have any effect on the play of Ibanez and Sexson. Broussard has been on the roster all year, and Sexson was legitimately hurting the club while he hit in the middle of the order. AJ’s appearance coincided with Ibanez getting healthy and hitting in homer friendly parks
I agree fully. I can’t honestly believe that Raul and Richie were half-assing it until there was someone coming for their jobs. I think the whole idea is bogus. Hitting is an reactionary thing; you see the ball and react. You can’t honestly believe that a hitter is walking up to the plate and telling himself, “You know, my job’s secure anyway, so I’m going to swing like a fifth-grader for a month.”
This isn’t like basketball, where you can slack off and not run back on defense and do other things at half-speed because you don’t care. This is hitting, and these guys walk up to the plate and do what they do. Every single time. There’s no “hustle” in a swing. There’s no “gritty” way to see and react to a fastball. It’s just reaction. This is what they do, and to suggest that at times they’re not giving it their full effort is, to me, to completely ignore the whole idea of what batting is. Guys get better, guys get worse. Bat speed slows down. Guys go on streaks, they have high or low BABIPs, etc. A lot of things go into how a guy performs at the plate. I don’t think effort is one of them.
0-4 is lame.
I’m glad for Richie… Who knows, maybe getting his butt booed for the last few games finally lit a fire under him. He sure does seem P.O.’ed enough at the fans! (Though I agree with #20, his slump wasn’t wasn’t for lack of trying…)
Whatever it is that has him going, Gawd I hope he busts out of it for good. What a lift his bat would be!
Teej
Well we have to attribute Sexson’s “resurgence” (if that’s what it is…I need to see some more “surging” to believe it) to something. I believe that anyone can become a little complacent. Maybe the guy doesn’t focus as much, or watch film like he should, or listen to scouting reports. Having your job taken away is a shock and can totally have an affect on how a guy approaches his job.
That said, there’s no way in the world to tell why those two guys simultaneously rediscovered their stroke. Probably just crappy pitching in small ballparks.
I don’t boo players on the M’s. At least not out loud. But I do boo inside, sometimes, and I know in my own heart that I’m not booing the pleyer. I’m booing the manager who ran the wrong guy out there. I’m booing the decision that didn’t maximuze the team’s chance of winning.
For example, John Parrish. The KOMO post-game show said you got to cut the guy a little slack, he just got here. Well, cut him all the slack in the world, and there are still 5 other guys in the bullpen who are better pitchers. That doesn’ tmean Parrish doesn’t work hard, or doesn’t deserve to be in the majors, or shouldn’t have a roster spot on the M’s. Somebody has to be the least effective guy in the pen, and considering how good the M’s bullpen is, that’s not really so bad. So, John Parrish is fine with me. But Mac running him out there in the seventh inning of a two run game? The day after a complete game from the starter? That’s not smart.
And Vidro at second. I’ve harped on this before, but if the team insists that when Jones starts in Left that Ibanez moves to DH and Vidro moves to 2B, how about you do it when Washburn is pitching and not Felix? How about you use the good OF/bad IF when a flyball pitcher is on the mound, when Jones’ glove is most likely to help and Vidro’s least likely to hurt?
And Ibanez batting third against a lefty. And Broussard not playing against Righties. And all the other non-optimal decisions.
The guys on KOMO like to talk about players doing the little things right. If you don’t do the little things, then the big things tend to fall apart. Well, this is the managment not doing the little things right. That’s what I boo. And I do quietly because I’m not booing the player.
We have a winning team, but we’re just barely holding onto a playoff spot, and we’ve thrown away a handfull of games already this year through mental mistakes. Mental mistakes on the manager’s and GM’s part. It’s sloppy “play” and deserves booing the same way a pitcher not covering first or a baserunner getting picked off second does.
Only time will tell if Richie is really back. However, no one take away what he did tonight and it was glorious fun for M’s fans.
Kudos to Richie. That was a fun way to end the game.
JMHawkins
I boo so that management knows I’m unhappy. If it hurts the player’s feelings then that’s just too bad. I have to deal with plenty of crap at my job and I don’t get millions of dollars and three months off every year. Parrish should be a last-resort pitcher and that’s not how he’s being used, so tell management by booing as soon as he comes out of the pen.
Despite the frustration that I have felt about Sexson (along with everyone else) I think commentators here have generally shown less patience with Sexson than I would support.
Sexson is only 32, so he shouldn’t be over the hill yet. Sexson’s lifetime OPS of .862 is much higher than the lifetime OPS of any other player on the Mariners roster (including BenB), and is much higher than the OPS of any other Mariner for this year. OPS isn’t the perfect measure of a batter’s productivity, but it isn’t bad.
Considering that Sexson is signed for another year (at great expense), I’d think it makes sense to stay with him largely as McLaren has done, though it is painful at times. Yes, I’d play BenB against a few more RH pitchers, but a platoon against LH pitchers wouldn’t give Sexson enough at bats. In addition, historically Sexson has hit RH pitchers almost as well as LP pitchers.
Finally, I’ll note that when trashing Sexson, people here like to emphasize his low batting average, even though that stat is often dismissed as misleading (e.g. discussing Vidro). Sexson’s OPS is barely over .700, which is not very good, especially for someone playing first base and someone making so much money, but it isn’t excruciatingly bad. I’d agree we should have moved him down in the line-up earlier, and have given him a few more days off, but I wouldn’t be so quick to write off a batter at age 32 who by far has the highest career OPS of any player on the team.
Re-regress, Richie. Give up the suck. The team needs it.
Maybe the guy doesn’t focus as much
Do you really think, that during a season that has been almost entirely a pennant race, that Richie hasn’t been focusing? Obviously nobody knows exactly what’s causing anything, but I’m much more inclined to think that Richie’s bat is slowing down or something like that than I am to believe that he’s too busy thinking about what cut of steak he’s going to eat after the game.
Richie is a “Three True Outcomes” dude, and those guys don’t tend to age well at all. I can’t prove this, but I think there’s a very good chance that Richie is close to done as a productive major-league player. He’s got some homers left in him, obviously, because he has immense power, but he’ll never be who the Mariners thought he would be when they signed him. And we can’t assign that to a lack of trying. This is just the way high-homer, high-strikeout guys tend to age.
Also, do you really think big-league baseball players watch much film? They play 162 games, six days a week, and spend a good deal of their free time traveling. I can’t say I’ve played in the bigs, but I’ll tell you, I would not watch a whole lot of film with that brutal schedule. This isn’t the NFL.
Way to go Richie, that was a great night, and this time we can’t attribute it to poor pitching. It was really nice to see everyone cheering for him after all the boo’s he’s been getting, and to have the whole team out there giving him props for finally doing what he needs to do.
Hopefully we’ll see more of the same down the stretch, if he can carry our offense for the last 7 weeks I’ll forget the last 4 months ever happened.
From the AP write-up: “But he added that his teammates have been talking about what a ‘mystery’ it is that they are booing a winning team. ‘It’s frustrating because you put in so much work, but they don’t see that,’ he said.”
Huh? This might be some writer embellishing the comments, but dang Richie, fans aren’t booing the team, fans are booing you’re .208 batting average and McLaren for not putting Broussard in. I was at the game tonight and it was awesome, and Richie was awesome tonight. Even if his average is low, I think pitchers are still wary of him, which is important. We’re in 1st in the wildcard and he still isn’t hitting consistently…get that going and we could get even better. I love ya Richie, keep truckin’ and when you’re doing good we’ll cheer you all the more (a la Jeff Weaver), but no one is “booing the TEAM while they’re winning.
Teej – I think what you are trying to say is a guy can’t go up and not react the way he reacts. Just because his reactions might suck does not mean he has been half-assing it. His entire ass is just awful.
Teej – I think what you are trying to say is a guy can’t go up and not react the way he reacts. Just because his reactions might suck does not mean he has been half-assing it. His entire ass is just awful.
Absolutely. I’ll listen to any argument alleging that it’s a fluke, and I’ll listen to any argument alleging that Richie just plain sucks. But if you tell me he just recently decided to start trying harder, I’m going to laugh in your face.
It’d be nice if we were actually picking up ground in either of the races we were in. Unless the Yankees fall back in the tank somehow I don’t think we can outlast them, even though our schedule is slightly easier. Not much. Angels are going to be tough to catch as well, but I actually do think if the Mariners continue to play well they will catch them by the end of August…. the Angels have a tough stretch from now til then, followed by an easy september. If the M’s can stay hot through August and win series against the Angels when we play them, I believe its possible we could pull out the division even though the Angels are a better team.
I wish we were in the NL or the AL Central. I actually *do* think we’re better overall then all but three teams in baseball (right now, if some othber teams were healthy we wouldn’t be), unfortunately we’re competing directly with two of them for a playoff spot right now and maybe all three of them if Boston continues to slip…. doh.
The last week or so has shaken out the wild card race, according to Coolstandings. It’s a two-team race now, Seattle and New York (assuming the Yankees don’t catch the Red Sox): The Indians and the Tigers have each dropped below 2 percent, and are fighting for the division for a playoff berth.
The Mariners still have as good a chance at the division as they do at the wild card (15.7% chance at each). They need to hang on until the Yankees hit the tough stretch of their schedule; the Yankees have been feasting on crap teams to climb back in the race.
35,
Yes, crap teams like the Indians right? (Who the Yankees just swept)
34,
Boston slipping is a good thing, you are confused. If Boston slips behind the Yankees then they are by definition easier to catch than the Yankees. Holding the Yankees performance constant it is DEFINITELY good for Boston to lose, because if Boston wants to present an easier wild card contender than the Yankees, then, BY ALL MEANS.
Also, I always sort of thought of the AL west as a gift because its the only four team division. Gives you the best odds of winning the division. However, that may be offset by the Angels being so damn good.
Catching the Angels is a must. We are down three in the loss column. The angels will definitely lose three games. The question is how many we will lose. The Angels are playing NYY and BOS this month and I’d rather see the angels lose those games than NYY or BOS. The Wild Card is too volatile considering that one of NYY/CLE/DET is likely to get very hot.
Just get it done against the Twins and Sox at home for gods sake.
24: Don’t be too hard on Parrish. Take away six or seven pitches and he did a fine job in relief.
How to get WAY too angry at 4:30 in the morning…
(1) Get disgusted and turn off the M’s game after the John Parrish-experience the night before. (Hey, I was *tired*. I didn’t give up on the game, I just didn’t feel like fighting off the sleep anymore.)
(2) Start car and immediately hear the tale of Richie’s bomb leading the ESPN radio highlights. YAY~!
(3) Have Mike Greenberg start the next segment (an interview with Steve Phillips) by saying “you’ve got the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, and Indians…four teams going for three spots, who is staying home for the playoffs.”
WHAT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
He actually said that THREE TIMES, and while I’m cursing him out it took Steve Phillips (who is an idiot) to actually say HE thought the M’s were going to WIN THE WILD CARD.
I mean, disregard their chances if you must, but don’t leave them out of the discussion ENTIRELY. They are only TIED for the lead in the WC standings.
I don’t buy the East Coast-bias too much (which is really more relevant to college sports, anyway) but WOW was that a reminder of how far off the radar we are here.
38 (JJD) – Your frustration is understood. Though, you’ll grow grey hair later in life if you stop concerning yourself with anything ESPN says.
Notice on their front page this morning, it says the Mariners crack the top 10 in their Power Rankings. Are they the third best team in baseball (they have the third best record)? No. But, they have certainly done well enough to be considered for the top 10 before this week.
The National League is bad, and I have hated divisions for several years. It is what it is though, and there is still a very good chance the Mariners are going to just miss a playoff berth.
Last night’s win has to rank a 10 on the luck meter for sure. It’s really going to fall in McLaren’s hands.
Dear USS Mariner,
Can you pleasea start denouncing Ichiro, hating on nearly anything he does? It’s seemed to have worked wonders for Jeff Weaver, Jose Vidro, and Richie Sexson.
Players who think that Seattle fans are hard on them when they don’t perform well should never, ever sign to play for an east coast team.
I’ve booed Sexson myself in Safeco this year but it took a long time to get me to that point and it wasn’t just because he had a couple of bad at-bats in that game. But I’ll also cheer him when he comes through like he did last night. If Richie can start becoming a productive hitter again I’ll be more than happy to jump back on his bandwagon.
29 (Teej) – They actually watch quite a bit of film. It has been made a lot easier for them than NFL players, though. After an at bat, you will see a guy head into the tunnel to watch the film which is made immediately available for them.
Some teams have even started to load film onto iPods for players to review during travel. So, no, this is not the NFL. But, they do watch plenty of film.
on ESPN radio’s pre-pre-game show sunday, they prefaced a discussion of the Mariners by helpfully pointing out that probably very few in their listening audience ever saw the Mariners, playing in the middle of the night in the Far North as they do, but that they were right in the middle of the race–
it was a lead in to Phillips’ scheduled ‘red flag’ segment on the tv side, pointing out that the Mariners winning record was achieved on the back of starting pitchers with a below-500 record, and that only two team had had post-season success with such a record.
#29,42– not only do they watch video, Carl Hamilton, the dean of video coordinators, has been their video man for almost 20 years (as a point of reference, the annual award of excellence from the Professional Baseball Video Coordinators Association is named ‘The Carl Hamilton Award of Excellence’… )
Been season-ticket holder since The Safe opened, always sitting right next to the M’s dugout. Was there last night, and saw something I’ve never sseen before. Usually after every inning-ending ground ball putout at first, Richie throws the baseball into the crowd to some little kid. Yesterday, for the first time in my memory, Richie stopped giving out baseballs.
Unfortunately, I can only think of one reason why he would do this, and it’s not a good one. What Richie, you think the six-year olds are the ones booing you? His play notwithstanding, the reasons for continuing to boo Richie (just read the AP story about last night’s game for a good laugh) seem to be mounting…
McLaren last night:
“Mariners manager John McLaren said before Monday night’s game that the booing was unfortunate, but somewhat expected.
“As much as our fans love our players, sometimes when they’re not happy with them they let them know,” McLaren said. “That’s the reality of the game. I think they’re trying to push the players in their own way. They’re lucky they’re not in Boston or Philadelphia or New York, or it might have been worse.”
Re 27: According to Yahoo Sports stat page, Sexson has the lowest BA of regular MLB first basemen, the lowest OBP, and is 22 out of 24 in OPS. In 2006, he was 17 out of 24 in OPS. In 2005, he was 11 out of 29. I see a disturbing trend here.
He’s just plain bad, and there is no indication that he will ever be much better over an entire season. The “second half turnaround” that’s been predicted endlessly since April is becoming a pretty good month, at best.
As to what McLaren should do with Sexson, that’s easy: never let him bat against right handed pitching.
Cherrypick much? The teams before that were Toronto, Kansas City, the White Sox, Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Tampa Bay. Before Cleveland, that was one team with a winning record since the All-Star Break — Toronto, at 59-58. Against the teams I just listed, the Yankees fattened up to the tune of 20-8. I think my point stands. The Yankees are about to play Detroit, the Angels, Detroit, Boston. This is a chance for the Mariners to make some space in the race.
Sexson after the game.
“I think they’re just booing me because they want me to be good. I don’t think it’s a stab against my personality or my work ethic or anything. They just want me to be good, so that’s the way it goes.”
Never thought about it that way. I guess that type of thinking helps you not break down and cry when thousands of people are booing you. Cheers to his resurgance!
[deleted, jackassery]
36 – Also, I always sort of thought of the AL west as a gift because its the only four team division. Gives you the best odds of winning the division. However, that may be offset by the Angels being so damn good.
The advantage in the East of playing in a five team division is playing Tampa Bay. The Rays have never lost less than 90 games in a season, and the Yanks and Sox have the advantage of playing them a combined 37 times. Talk about gifts.
it took Steve Phillips (who is an idiot) to actually say HE thought the M’s were going to WIN THE WILD CARD.
That said, Steve Phillips also said he thought Toronto had a chance, so his claims aren’t particularly credible.
Seriously, jackassery? At least valid jackassery?
It’s hard to enjoy moments like this when you know it is going to lead to another month of Sexson’s name written in ink on the lineup card and Broussard rotting on the bench.
Still though, good game Mr. Sexson, and I hope you tear it up for the rest of the year and justify the faith that McLaren has placed in you.
McLaren’s apparent lack of managerial skills are starting to frighten me (see Parrish’s insertion in the 7th). That being said, I’m glad Sexson played out of his mind and won us the game.
Awesome win. Great to see Richie do it. However, I think John McClaren must have went to bed thanking his lucky stars that Richie bailed him out…the 7th inning and the lineup selections were bizarre. John Parrish? What happened to O’Flaherty? And why do they keep getting Sherrill up? Parrish is a blowout/long relief guy…only! Flat fastball, not much tilt on the breaking ball, and it seemed like the Twins were getting good looks at all of his stuff. Why not run Felix out to face the 8, 9, 1? John McClaren, you are a lucky man!
Also, I like how Richie took it upon himself. Still, I think that blogs like this are educating the casual Seattle baseball fan. The fans are becoming more discerning, which isn’t a bad thing. Richie and the clubhouse should try New York or Philly…as a Mets fan and having spent years in Philadelphia, the level of intensity/vitriol is times 10 compared with here. Still, it’s nice to get away from the ‘our boys’ high school feel of the casual M’s fan…I think that led to management keeping guys past their ’sell-by’ date because of their popularity. This is a business, and business is better when you win…
Vidro, Sexson, and Ibanez just can’t for their lives remember how to suck. I mean don’t these guys realize their washed up? I just don’t understand why they are playing well despite the heaps and mounds of evidence predicting the contrary. =)
#48
I agree with you completely, those teams all suck. My point is that they still showed they CAN beat a good team in CLE. Also, the Yankees are damn good. They lead the MLB in XWL%. Therefore, it is not so obvious that they will collapse against ‘good’ teams, as they are arguably the best team.
Don’t get me wrong, I hate the Yankees, but that lineup is WOW.
My only point is that beating up on the Angel’s head to head is what we have to do because the Yankees are not planning on missing the playoffs.
Interestingly, I was talking to a buddy of mine a few days ago who is also from Seattle (we both live in NY), and is himself a casual sports fan. I told him we were 1/2 a game out of the wild card (or whatever it was at the time) and he said: ‘Whats with the M’s and the wild card, why can’t they ever just WIN their division’
Alas, if the M’s are gonna go head to head with the Yanks, it should make for a good game in September @ NY, to which I have tickets for myself and six friends.
What’s the with the M’s and the wild card
The Mariners have won 3 pennants (’95, ‘97, ‘01), but just one wild-card (’00 – a year when Oakland beat them by half a game due to a rainout).
It’s not as if they are playoff vultures (see: Bosox)
@ 58. Which game? I’m going to be in NY the 4th thru the 10th and have tickets for the last game of the series.
michaelfox99, I certainly didn’t mean to imply that the Yankees aren’t for real, or that they’ll collapse against good competition. They probably won’t go 20-8, though, so the Mariners’ best chance for getting a lead on the Yankees ought to be during this upcoming stretch. That’s all I meant, and it doesn’t sound like we disagree.
I live in New York, and I enjoy pointing out to Yankee fans that none of their current championships would have happened without the wild card (because there would have only been two divisions, and the Yankees wouldn’t have had the best record in the East).
Going back to Richie and Raul’s resurgence, perhaps having some playing time stolen by Adam Jones has been similar to the effect Melky Cabrera has had on the Yankees.
When Giambi went down they had an open DH spot and used it to rest one of their old, hurt, struggling outfielders (Damon, Matsui, Abreu). They would then start Melky in CF almost everyday. In this way they found playing time for Melky and got their outfielders refreshed and healthy again, leading to a massive increase in production offensively, and an upgrade in the OF.
This role would seem to suit Adam Jones very well. If we used him to rest Guillen and Ibanez, at the expense of Jose Vidro and Richie Sexson (and Ben Broussard, who is the unfortunate odd man out, though he doesn’t deserve to be) we would be a much better, healthier team.
62
I think thats exactly what John Mclaren has said he will do (and thus so far, done).
Although this is my first post, I have been reading this forum for quite some time. There has been a lot of griping and moaning about who to play, where to play them, etc etc. We have a hot, hot prospect in AJ and a great lefty first baseman in Broussard that there really seems there are no places for. Sure Mclaren can put them in when players need a rest, but by and large there is not room for them to be everyday players.
What everyone needs to realize is that this is not a bad problem to have. Having those two players (plus ubiquitous Utility Man Bloomquist) is a Managers wet dream. Mclaren can pinch hit, pinch run and double switch all game long, then do it all over next game. Rest ANY player he wants and, godforbid, if there is a late-season injury, we will be in better place to deal with it than almost any club in the league. Plus the way he has introduced AJ and Broussard to additional playing time has kept everyone in the clubhouse relaxed and relativly at ease. Even when the fire was under him to just drop Ibanez to DH and Sexson to the bench he balked, choosing to do it this way, which has further increased his players trust in him. Some of his strategies can be questionable, I agree, but this one is working… and working well.
Now that we have more than a few post-AS games under our belts, check out the pre/post OPS numbers:
Pre Post
Ichiro .870 .708
Vidro .698 .952
Ibanez .750 .793
Guillen .795 .848
Beltre .815 .783
Sexson .712 .716
Johjima .781 .711
Lopez .737 .433
Betancourt .663 .909
Average .758 .761
So Ichiro has dropped off quite a bit and Lopez fell off a cliff, offset by just about everyone else (except Johjima) improving.
As for the Yankees – ouch:
Pre Post
Damon .683 .799
Jeter .871 .792
Abreu .723 .991
Rodriguez 1.075 .938
Matsui .818 1.052
Posada .901 1.188
Cano .741 1.173
Giambi/Phillips .816 .639
Cabrera .716 .994
Average .816 .952
Is that .952 really sustainable? I doubt it. Still, that’s nasty.
It won’t be long before Boston fans are lining up on the ledges. In which case, I heartily endorse the words of Homer Simpson: “More splat, less chat…”
Wow, a .433 for Lopez. That’s not even close to major league numbers.
Yeah, it’s interesting that Sexson and Ibanez’s “hot streaks” last week get their post-break numbers into the same sucky range they have been all year.
At this point somebody needs to figure out what Lopez needs (trip home, time off, whatever) to get his head straight, and we need a decent fielding bat at 2B. Vidro isn’t the answer, WFB may be a short term answer, but do you bring up Dawkins or Green to fill the gap? Or just eat the .433 OPS and take the defense?
“Or just eat the .433 OPS and take the defense?”
Perhaps someone wiser than myself can chime in on this, but don’t the defensive metrics show that Lopez is merely average defensively anyways?
Perhaps there was more to that Loretta almost-trade than we realize.
I think for last year Lopez was rated as a -0.2 run 2B, meaning pretty much exactly replacement level. I don’t know if that’s improved or anything this year, it probably has a little, but it’s still better to have an average guy than the worst 2B in all of baseball.
Seems like it would be simple math to determine the runs he costs us with his .433 ops with the runs he saves compared to Vidro or WFB’s defense at second. Math I am unfortunately too lazy to do.
Average is not the same as replacement level.
I hate to bring this up, but I suspect they will consider sticking Vidro at 2B and rotating Jones/Ibanez in LF and Broussard/Ibanez at DH.
Personally, I would be on the phone with Todd Walker’s agent right now.
Lets just hope lopez starts hitting.
As we all sit here, talking about Sexson, we all know that there is almost no chance of resigning him. We are discussing the present, and that is good, because the present is very important, but the future is also important, and currently we only have 33 and a half hours before aumont becomes available to everybody. The FO is probly just sitting there taking him for granted, forgetting that there might be people ready to pounce when the time comes, grrrr.
Lopez’s defense is a bit above average. And actually, when it comes to defense, average is the same as replacement level. It’s very, very easy to find a major league average defensive player floating around Triple-A. In fact, most bench players are better defenders than the guys starting ahead of them.
But there’s no point in calculating whether Lopez’s defense is worth a .433 OPS, because that’s not his real production level. It’s a slump – a bad one, certainly – but there’s no reason whatsoever to use that as a basis for projecting his future performance.
Even if you figure Lopez is good for .600 the rest of the way (being generous at current production level) it would be nice for a playoff contending team to have an option better than “offensive black hole” at 2B.
Personally I blame the double play twins ad. I think someone finally pointed out the homoerotic overtones to him and it’s freaked him out.
Too much? You bet…
So assuming Richie gets the 544 at bats he’s currently on pace for, he needs to bat .341 the rest of the way to end the season at .250 (obviously, the number of at bats he is actually going to end up with depends on several things like how well he plays, how well Broussard plays, if pitchers start walking him more, etc., but let’s not get too complicated). I’m gonna take the long shot and predict that he does it. I assume I’m the only one.
Average at 2B is many, many runs saved compared to Vidro. I think everyone agrees Lopez is the long term guy. I mean he’s only 24 and he is an important position player for the M’s and among the only legitimate infield gloves (along with Yuni, Beltre, and maybe Willie). I think the M’s need to just stick with Lopez and let him start to hit out of this slump.
I am a strong proponent of figuring out who the guy is and going with him.
Try not to flame me too much but what if we were all not 100% right about Jones. I mean, all the numbers suggested he had a huge edge on Ibanez defensively but he isn’t converting the rangey plays he was called up for. Those plays require action with no hesitation whatsoever and I cringe every hit that goes to left with him out there because HE LOOKS LIKE A ROOKIE OUT THERE. This may be what McLaren knew that we didn’t. By knowing him personally and knowing how the pressure would rub his personality.
I know. Incredibly small sample size and problems he may overcome in a matter of days. But he sure does look like a rookie out there.
I am not saying he should be benched, I am saying that this is why he should have been brought up two months ago.
Based on McLaren’s own reasoning he should bench him. It sucks to watch the kid go through growing pains during a pennant race.
Even if you figure Lopez is good for .600 the rest of the way (being generous at current production level)…
Projecting a guy to perform at his career worst levels for the next six weeks can in no way be described as generous. I’ve got a half-written post sitting around talking about how to project performance, and maybe I need to get around to finishing it, because for whatever reason, people still value recent performance way too heavily in their evaluations.
I do not buy the gloom and doom about the Yankees. As someone else posted here, a .952 team OPS is not sustainable. Cabrera will maintain at .994? Cano at 1.173? No way. They are flat-out unconscious right now. They are running hard because the bottom end of the line-up has teed off on mediocre pitching. As the Evil Empire takes on Boston, Detroit and the Angels, that team OPS is going to drop, as is the win percentage.
Based on McLaren’s own reasoning he should bench him. It sucks to watch the kid go through growing pains during a pennant race.
Yea, it’s much better to have a ball land easily with no one around it than for Jones to almost make the catch. Clearly, the dropped ball hurts the team far more than Ibanez not getting anywhere near it…
He won’t hit .341 the rest of the way, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’ll be happy with Sexson if he goes .250 the rest of the way.
“Yea, it’s much better to have a ball land easily with no one around it than for Jones to almost make the catch. Clearly, the dropped ball hurts the team far more than Ibanez not getting anywhere near it…”
I was screaming at my TV last night when Sims was talking about that dropped ball. Ibanez would have been lucky to be within an area code of that ball by the time it dropped.
Jones should have caught it. An average major league outfielder usually catches that ball. It wasn’t that tough of a play. I’m not here to defend AJ dropping that ball – it’s a play he needs to make.
Extrapolating from that drop, however, that the team is still better off with Raul’s carcass running around the outfield is just terrible analysis.
Well, Dave, in the actual EVENT, the dropped ball (since you take yourself out of position) and not getting near it are about the same since they both ultimately get to it in about the same time (although then at that point Jones’s arm is still better and thus the 2 OF assists we’ve seen already).
Of course, I will restate that my point which is that if Mclaren planned on playing him at all it should have been two months ago. His issue appears to be confidence related, he is trying too hard out there, very obvious in the play he overran the ball with Beltre/Yuni running at him.
If Mclaren guessed right that this would happen (and it seems he did), then all the more reason to let this happen two months ago where at least the amount of time the team actually reaped the benefits of the ‘learned from mistakes / confident’ Jones would be longer.
Is ARod worth more money than Santana?
83-I would have to disagree, left fielders arent usually that fast, and Jones had more area to cover than in most ballparks. I do thiink Jones should have caught the ball, but a win is a win. If Ibanez had been out there he probably wouldn’t have cut the ball off and at the very least we would have had to face the reighning MVP with a runner on third and Torii Hunter on deck. That whole inning should be blamed on Parrish and nobody else.
The way I figure the drop ball is like this: Ibanez lets it drop in front of him with the game tied and Mauer at second, or Ibanez dives and it skips by him and Mauer scores. But there is no way Ibanez gets to that ball. Yes, Jones should have had that and the one in CF against Boston. What is more mind-boggling is Mac’s insistence to play Raul against leftys, let alone the best LHP in the game. Geesh, even the best lefty batters found away to take a day off against RJ.
85 = Yes. Even if he’s not worth more he’s going to be more though, probably 30mil a year for A Rod and a bit less for Santana.
Well, Dave, in the actual EVENT, the dropped ball (since you take yourself out of position) and not getting near it are about the same since they both ultimately get to it in about the same time (although then at that point Jones’s arm is still better and thus the 2 OF assists we’ve seen already).
So your point is that if Adam Jones drops every ball he gets to, then he’s about equal in fielding ability to Ibanez? Sounds like a great reason to bench him.
His issue appears to be confidence related, he is trying too hard out there, very obvious in the play he overran the ball with Beltre/Yuni running at him.
Or, you know, you could be extrapolating way too many conclusions from three plays.
If Mclaren guessed right that this would happen (and it seems he did)
John McLaren didn’t play Adam Jones.
John McLaren finally plays Adam Jones.
Adam Jones drops ball.
John McLaren knew Adam Jones would drop the ball.
That’s your belief? Really?
I’ll say this again – people are way too quick to assign knowledge to things that are often random. It’s a massive analytical flaw.
Dave – Who would you consider out there for 2b options for insurance with Lopez? Also, would you consider adding an extra infielder to the 25 man roster on 8/30 and sending a pitcher down? Thanks in advance.
85-Yes, I assume you are reffering to the article on ESPN where they predicted Santana at $25 million, PayRod’s pay will go up again the next time he signs with somebody, and he will live up to his nickname yet again.
As much as it pains me to say this, if you’re dead set on giving up on Jose Lopez (I’m not), then you just play Bloomquist. His defense at second is fine, his basestealing gives him some minimal offensive value, and he’s already here.
Perhaps he should’ve dove for the ball and gotten his uniform dirty like Willie.
Seriously, you want to bench him after he didn’t get to one ball that he should have? By that logic, Ibanez should’ve been benched in April.
I think a lot of fans feel that way.
It looks like they’re managing defensively with rookies and over-optimistically with vets.
Not sure that’s a good way of going about it; I’d prefer to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, all the way down the line.
Wait a minute, ghug. If we don’t sign Phillipe, he doesn’t become a free agent. He either goes to college or waits until next year to get drafted again. Also, if we don’t sign him, we do get a pretty high compensatory pick next year. Not saying we shouldn’t sign him, but it wouldn’t be the end of the Mariners as we know it or anything like that.
Besides, I bet we sign him. A lot of the high picks have waited til the last possible second, but I bet almost all of them sign before the deadline.
I didn’t read it that way; I read it as him projection MCLAREN’s reasoning.
It’s still stupid, though…
95-What I meant is that WE don’t get him, and next year somebody will/would draft him and sign him, and a draft pick that is sligtly better one year, isn’t worth wasting a better one another year.
Extrapolating from that drop, however, that the team is still better off with Raul’s carcass running around the outfield is just terrible analysis
Also, isn’t the secret (such as it was) out of the bag now that Raul’s been hurt most of the year – a lot worse than anyone had let on? The weird power-outage he’s had (and that Dave documented earlier in the year as being so strongly against the typical aging pattern) has probalby been due to the shoulder injury. Raul’s even said that it feels like someone’s sticking a knife in his back when he throws the ball.
Now, as slow as he is (made worse by the other nagging injury – the hamstring), he still plays hard out there. He runs as hard as he can and dives now and then. That can’t help his shoulder or hammy heal faster, and is probably hurting his offensive production, especially his power.
SO WHY IS HE STILL PLAYING LEFT FIELD!
Extrapolating from that drop, however, that the team is still better off with Raul’s carcass running around the outfield is just terrible analysis
Also, isn’t the secret (such as it was) out of the bag now that Raul’s been hurt most of the year – a lot worse than anyone had let on? The weird power-outage he’s had (and that Dave documented earlier in the year as being so strongly against the typical aging pattern) has probalby been due to the shoulder injury. Raul’s even said that it feels like someone’s sticking a knife in his back when he throws the ball.
Now, as slow as he is (made worse by the other nagging injury – the hamstring), he still plays hard out there. He runs as hard as he can and dives now and then. That can’t help his shoulder or hammy heal faster, and is probably hurting his offensive production, especially his power.
SO WHY IS HE STILL PLAYING LEFT FIELD!
its not random. he’s 21. He’s exhibiting a high volatility which I think may be explainable in aggregate when looking at many players at such a young age with such little experience.
I am not saying that the small number of plays proves he is inadequate or means he should be benched. It means there is some reason to why McLaren could not accept the volatility at this juncture.
The point I am trying to make is that the one thing that can be ascribed to his youth is volatility. I have not run the numbers but I am suggesting the standard deviations for younger players game stats are higher. This is why I am suggesting that the tragic flaw is that we waited this long and are now thrusting him into very high pressure scenarios and we may not have even witnessed his biggest blunders yet.
Certainly we would all agree that if it was the world series and Jones hadn’t been called up yet, that would not be a good scenario to give him the go, seeing as the margin for error is zero.
I think he should start every game in LF because he will eventually play to his potential and you might as well get him there ASAP because the team needs that.
Thanks Dave. I’m definitely not dead set on giving up on Jose Lopez. I just think it wouldn’t hurt to have options leading into October especially since the rosters expand in September.
I have not run the numbers but I am suggesting the standard deviations for younger players game stats are higher.
This just isn’t true. This is the same hogwash the Mariners believe that keeps us running an inferior roster on the field. Hopefully, some day, people will stop believing this stuff.
I’m all for sticking with J-Lo at 2nd. Maybe the M’s need a new hitting coach to work out his flaws (he opined, half-joking). Maybe J-Lo needs to get in better shape (his playing weight is indicated as 200, though 215 may be more accurate). I have no problem with playing Willie 10% of the time at 2nd (and Vidro never), though J-Lo should get the vast majority of playing time at 2nd.
As for Jones, I wish he’d play every day in LF. The more playing time he gets the more comfortable he’ll be in the field, and at the plate. I’m not at all concerned about a few minor lapses in defense.
So you have seen numbers that show that a player is just as likely to put up his career numbers in his first outing as his 341st?
Most guys rookie years are below average.
Okay, so if it’s not random, and it’s due to “volatility”, where is your evidence for that?
I’d need to see something pretty convincing to extrapolate a trend from such a small sample size.
So you have seen numbers that show that a player is just as likely to put up his career numbers in his first outing as his 341st?
Most guys rookie years are below their career averages.
I understand the burden of proof is on me. But we’ve all felt the actual experience of ‘pressure’. It is a real thing right?
Are you saying you haven’t seen anyone look into rookie volatilities or you HAVE seen an analysis showing that there isn’t statistical significance to a reasonable level of confidence that the volatility is higher?
So you have seen numbers that show that a player is just as likely to put up his career numbers in his first outing as his 341st?
No – I have numbers that show that a player’s performance is dictated almost entirely by his talent level at the time of the occurrance, and that there is no correlation between variations of performance and age.
Young guys, middle age guy, old guys – they all struggle. It’s just that young guys get their struggles blamed on age as people come up with ridiculous assertions like “he dropped that one because he’s young”.
Most guys rookie years are below average.
Not if you understand how to project performance, they’re not.
Certainly we would all agree that if it was the world series and Jones hadn’t been called up yet, that would not be a good scenario to give him the go, seeing as the margin for error is zero.
I certainly don’t agree. Setting aside that guys need to be on the roster before the playoffs (unless you have the K-Rod exception), you put your best players on the field. A rookie with talent is a better player than a veteran who’s washed up or injured, or maybe just not as talented. I assume you approve of Parrish going into last night’s game because he’s a veteran and has more experience with pressure situations than Green or O’Flaherty. Wouldn’t want to stick a rookie out there with a two-run lead. Might be nervous.
I mentioned K-Rod. Look at what he did in the playoffs. Rookies with talent belong on the field. The more important the game, the more important it is to have your best players out there.
78: “Projecting a guy to perform at his career worst levels for the next six weeks can in no way be described as generous. I’ve got a half-written post sitting around talking about how to project performance, and maybe I need to get around to finishing it, because for whatever reason, people still value recent performance way too heavily in their evaluations.”
So his .683 career OPS is more like it? Or .658 for the year to date?
Really, Lopez has been a pretty big disappointment so far. 25th out of 27 qualifying MLB 2B, with only Josh Barfield and Marcus Giles(?) behind him. Even the rotting corpse of Craig Biggio ™ has 30 points of OPS on him.
Maybe Grover broke him, but right now he’s not looking like the future anything.
Or, just for comparison, here’s a few Mariner players OPS by month:
Beltre: .678, .919, .541, .996, .684
Vidro: .756, .694, .697, .829, .960
Ichiro: .815, .845, 1.002, .691, .715
Ibanez: .645, .787, .870, .503, 1.323
Johjima: .933, .827, .704, .543, 1.039
These are the Mariners grizzled vets. You know, the ones that can be counted on. The guys who don’t have to worry about slumping due to age. The consistent ones…
Do you see any consistency there? Right, of course not. Why?
Because all players are subject to variability in performance in small sample sizes. People just decide to arbitrarily pretend like they know why young players are slumping. They don’t.
“I have numbers that show that a player’s performance is dictated almost entirely by his talent level at the time of the occurrence, and that there is no correlation between variations of performance and age.”
I don’t think that this is the same thing I am asking. I am talking about volatility within the first few games. Not necessarily a small sample if you use 1000’s of major leaguers first few games. Although Jones did play last year so he probably wouldn’t even count.
Age wouldn’t directly be a signal with high information content because 24 may be rookie season for some and year three for others.
I just think that you walk onto a ML field for the first time, that it effects you, maybe positively, maybe negatively. This would be reflected in standard deviation from the optimal talent level prediction.
I personally like Sexson in 2005 and 2006:
2005 : 924, 869, 727, 1203, 780, 989
2006 : 659, 611, 858, 877, 890, 1124
No variance there.
I am talking about volatility within the first few games.
When you get into trying to explain performance in a sample of a couple of games, you’re just vastly over analyzing things. Again, you’re prescribing knowledge to something you don’t know is true. It’s guessing wrapped in a package of pseudo analysis.
And, really, why do only Jones’ drops count in this analysis? Were those nerves that supposedly caused him to not be able to catch the ball only present in the field and not at the plate when he was ripping the cover off the ball in his first few games as a major leaguer? Were they not present on the basepaths when he made two great slides to get around tags – the kinds of slides that get ascribed to veteran experience all the time – and help create a run by avoiding getting put out?
“When you get into trying to explain performance in a sample of a couple of games, you’re just vastly over analyzing things.”
But I said:
“Not necessarily a small sample if you use 1000’s of major leaguers first few games”
That would allow you to isolate the ‘first few games’ effect, and there would be no sample size issues. You should stop calling what I am saying ‘guessing’ or ‘pseudo’ analysis, it is OK to be respectful even in dissent.
I am not saying something is true as a guess. I am suggesting it and discussing using statistical method whether or not it has been looked at. Which to this point I am not convinced of.
110 and 112 those are very small samples.
The Leader’s Handbook: Making Things Happen, Getting Things Done, Peter R. Scholtes, pg 28.
An illusion of knowledge and lots of superstition. Hmmm….
Good grief, what happend to that post? I’m not even a USSM rookie.
Well, so variation in performance happens when you type as well as play baseball.
Argh.
You should stop calling what I am saying ‘guessing’ or ‘pseudo’ analysis…
That’s exactly what you’re doing. You’re guessing, wrapping it in something that pretends to pass for analysis, and offering no evidence of your claim.
I’m sure all those Brewer fans are happy the Brewers decided to reduce Ryan Braun’s playing time after 7 games when he started out 6 for 27 with 0 bb’s and 8 k’s, a nifty .222/.214/.370 line.
Oh wait, they didn’t reduce his playing time, and now he has 22 homers and an over .1000 OPS.
In his 8th game, Braun went 3 for 3 with a homer and walk. His season line after that game was added to his sample of a couple of games? .300/.313/.567. One game later and his season OPS went up by 300 points.
The Brewers knew better than to overanalyze such a small sample size.
I am hypothesizing, not guessing, and listening to responses, most of which are just assuming I am saying something that I am not.
ie AGE, SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, JONES SHOULD BE BENCHED
etc.
A hypothesis suggests a possible cause of a known phenomenon. When you create the phenomenon yourself, then try to explain the just created phenomenon, that’s guessing.
Okay, well back your hypothesis up with evidence then. Do you have any evidence that all rookies perform statistically worse than their expected performance in their first few games? If you don’t have any then really, you are just guessing.
michaelfox99,
stop while you are behind. you’re making a scene with your backtracking and equivocating.
Dave, how much do you think not facing right handed pitching for a couple months is going to hurt AJ’s development?
117, lol that is completely not what I am saying AT ALL.
I am not saying teams should bench players if they have a bad first week.
PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY
I am wondering whether there is any effect at all experienced by players in their first few starts. I am not saying they would be better or worse, but wondering if the variance one a game by game, or week by week, or whatever, basis is higher or lower.
Every MLB players first week is a massive sample size. The rest of all of those players careers are also a massive sample size. Now come up with an acceptable talent/prediction metric for each at the appropriate time. Now measure how much each player varied (UP or DOWN) and determine if there is statistically significant difference in the variance between the two samples.
My point was how do you isolate a “first few games” effect? Where do you draw the line without trying to explain performance in a sample of a couple of games and vastly over analyzing things?
Does this mean that for the first 7 games of his major league career, Ryan Braun was nervous and petrified….and that before game #8 he grew a beard and became a manly man?
How do you determine that, but for the fact that if Bobby Jenks doesn’t get his glove up to protect him from decapitation, Adam Jones is hitting .316 instead of .263?
One week is not a “massive” sample size.
The rotting corpse of Craig Biggio plays in a great hitter’s park, and the enigma that is Jose Lopez plays in a pitcher’s park, which may wipe out the 30 points of OPS. For what little that’s worth.
121, nice, not AT ALL what I am saying
“do you have any evidence that all rookies perform statistically worse than their expected performance in their first few games?”
I am not talking about performing worse. Take a course in statistics and learn what variance is. Nice place to start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance
120, true, I am not staring at the numbers and suggesting the hypothesis. I am working backwards. My mistake. No one has highlighted any data to debunk what has no evolved into my ‘first few game variance’ SUGGESTION (that is what I called it initially). I understand that the burden of proof is on me, no one is saying that, everyone is saying they are sure I am wrong, generally misconstruing what I am saying anyways.
I don’t really see the point in looking for “first few games” volatility effect for rookies when a) the effect, if there is any, may last a few weeks, and b) the net result of this volatility means Adam Jones may at worst drop a few flies that Ibanez would never come close to catching.
So, lets see, here’s the work you’re suggesting that someone else undertake for you.
1. Calculate the true talent level of many thousands of players on a specific date in time.
2. Calculate a normal expected distribution of outcomes based on that true talent level and a given sample size of, say, 10 at-bats.
3. Look up the performance of those thousands of players in their first 10 at-bats.
4. Calculate the actual distribution of outcomes.
5. Create a control group using another common sample from those same players careers.
6. Calculate the actual distribution of performances in the control group.
7. Compare the distribution of performances of the debuting guys against the projection and against the control group.
8. Realize that there isn’t a statistically significant effect and that tens of hours of your life were wasted.
9. Cry
If you want to go through all this, knock yourself out. I can’t imagine asking anyone else to do the research for you, though.
The point people are trying to help you with is that the first week of any major leaguer’s career doesn’t tell you anything useful about that particular player; thus, by extension, aggregating those first weeks doesn’t tell you anything useful about those players in aggregate.
125, 126
Ill just quote myself:
“Every MLB players first week is a massive sample size.”
If you wanted to analyze bunts with one out and a runner on 2nd you would look at every time that it occurred. If one guy only did it once than you would not say that you were looking at two small of sample if you were aggregating that result with 1000’s of other plays, many of them coming from other players who only tried it a small number of times.
If there is nothing statistically interesting about players first few games than it would come out in the numbers, the fact that each player is only contributing a few numbers doesn’t matter in aggregate.
If I said 50% of people survived a freeway accident would you say that no one was in 10,000 freeway accidents??
128
“I understand that the burden of proof is on me, no one is saying that, everyone is saying they are sure I am wrong, generally misconstruing what I am saying anyways.”
You admit that your argument needs to be backed up by facts, yet you continue to argue that others need to debunk it. Nice.
“No one has highlighted any data to debunk what has no evolved into my ‘first few game variance’ SUGGESTION”
Maybe you should be the one going back to school.
@ 100 & 102
“This just isn’t true. This is the same hogwash the Mariners believe that keeps us running an inferior roster on the field. Hopefully, some day, people will stop believing this stuff.”
One problem here is that people too often look at MLB rookies as “new” players. There *IS* substantial “high volatility” in the performance of anyone new to a job/task/sport (whatever) when comparing someone who has been doing something for 1 month and another who has been at it 5 years. However there is virtually no volatility difference between a 5 year worker and a 10 year worker. This is basically universally accepted (for example) in the worker safety field.
MLB rookies are those “5 year” workers when it comes to defense – they’ve certainly been catching fly balls for at least that long.
This may not apply to other sports as the speed/skill of the as the other athletes may increase disproportionately to that of the other athletes – but in baseball the speed of the ball coming off the bat shouldn’t be changing much between levels.
As far as the burden of proof goes, the more extreme the suggestion you’re making (in this case, that the usual caveat about small sample size doesn’t apply in this particular situation), the more heavily the burden of proof rests on you.
So people are collectively pretty justified in saying “until you can show us some evidence, we’re going to assume that you’re wrong”.
Um, OK, He’s 21 out of 25 2B in RC/G, according to THT.
And that’s his season average to date. It’s hard to believe he’ll improve on that the remainder of the season. (Dave’s magic predicting pixie dust aside.)
Well, it’s a reasonable hypothesis in my view given that to a certain extent its intuitive that young players would have a problem with consistency. Human experience tells you that the first time you perform a particular task you’re more prone to variations in your performance. Whether that actually occurs in the case of someone facing major league pitching for the first time would be up for debate because, as mentioned above, it’s questionable how much of a new task it is when you’re discussing players who have played the game for several years in the minor leagues. Still there are distinctions between AAA and MLB – the pitchers are different, the level of scouting is different, the pressures are different and so on.
I would say it’s a little more interesting if you looked at variance over an entire year rather than the first few games, but if someone wants to run those numbers then I’d still be interested in what it throws up (unless someone knows of a study that’s already looked at this issue).
I gave Jonesy a pass on that dropped ball because he was heading pretty fast towards the LF wall, and it looked like he had an awkward angle to his glove as he reached for the ball.
Most players with a survival sense will be aware if not distracted by the first, and the second can be corrected with practice, and maybe a different glove.
Backdrop and visual cues to orient yourself might change, though. I think we see that when we move into new, domed stadiums.
Don’t think it’s big enough to worry about, though.
130, yes that is pretty much what I am saying.
Although 2 and 6 aren’t really that bad since I am only using the first and second order moments in the analysis (mean and variance). I think it would be appropriate to use the whole overall sample and pick a reasonable confidence interval as far as statistical significance goes.
8 and 9, maybe.
I didn’t suggest anyone else undertake it. Although I probably will not because I get to do this sort of stuff quite often enough in my job as is, so to heck with it. I respect the intuitions of people who have been baseball stat-heads a lot longer than I that it has a nice likelihood of being fruitless.
(Dave’s magic predicting pixie dust aside.)
Regression to the mean is pixie dust now. Awesome.
That’s knowing your field, I think. That comes from experience, and would apply to anyone new to Safeco.
Um, OK, He’s 21 out of 25 2B in RC/G, according to THT.
And that’s his season average to date. It’s hard to believe he’ll improve on that the remainder of the season. (Dave’s magic predicting pixie dust aside.)
Given how badly he has been slumping to get to that point (21 out of 25, and hitting much worse than last year), it’s hard to believe he won’t improve on that.
Exactly what is the mean for Lopez, though? (And you were going to get a whole post out of regression to the mean? Awesome.)
Fact is, he hasn’t lived up to expectations through 1400 ML games, so he will have to go significantly beyond the .680-ish OPS he’s shown so far to be the long term answer to anything.
I’m well aware of what variance is, I think you’re the one who needs to take a course in it, or at least not link wikipedia to support an argument good grief.
What you are arguing (apparently?!) is that data will show a trend amongst players in their first few at bats as professional baseball players to deviate negatively from their average results, amongst thousands of baseball players with a sample size of just those first few at bats from them. (Or substitute at bats for any other statistic you’d like) You don’t have anything to support this argument and you won’t do the research yourself, so it’s an assumption, and an incorrect one.
Rookie jitters are not quantifiable and you have no evidence to suggest they exist at all. Period. You discount the good plays AJ has made and focus only on the bad plays, and that’s the depth of your evidence for your argument, making it a very bad one.
Back to the topic of the post, Richie Sexson, I wonder if last night’s performance means that Ben Broussard is back to riding the pine on a permanent basis. As nice as it was to see Richie break out last night, it was one game and I am not convinced. I still think Broussard should be starting at first for at least 2 out of every 3 RHPs we face.
Then again, in light of last night, it would be tough for McLaren to bench Sexson against Garza tonight.
Exactly what is the mean for Lopez, though?
Something significantly north of .600, that’s for sure.
“You admit that your argument needs to be backed up by facts, yet you continue to argue that others need to debunk it. Nice.”
I have never at any point argued that anyone else needed to debunk it. If someone said the burden of proof is on me and I need to bring the numbers I would agree 100%. IF ONLY that was the level of respect I was being shown. I said in the line you quoted that people were restating my argument completely incorrectly (’ misconstruing ‘) and then saying it was logically invalid. There is nothing logically wrong about what I am saying, it is a conjecture that is unproved and cannot be assumed valid.
Top ten reasons Adam Jones dropped that fly ball:
10: New uniform still too stiff.
9: Flashed on sudden image of Ibanez’s children going without food.
8: Watching scoreboard for Angels game.
7: A-Rod yelled “I got it” in Ichiro’s voice.
6: Blames DMZ for killing his dog in childhood; now conflicted about doing anything that makes USS Mariner look good.
5: Mental fan interference.
4: Sneak attack by the Mariner Mole, rejected Mariners mascot.
3: Delayed hotfoot.
2: Blinded by sun’s reflection on baseball.
1: Niacin deficiency.
“Then again, in light of last night, it would be tough for McLaren to bench Sexson against Garza tonight.”
…and that is the very definition of valuing recent performance over the much larger sample size of past performance.
That said – you’re almost certainly right about it being a tough call for Mac.
11. That guy in the stands laid a finger on his butterfinger.
There is a 0% chance that Broussard starts tonight.
Sexson is definitely starting for a long long time.
I wonder if Jones will play tonight though…
…and that is the very definition of valuing recent performance over the much larger sample size of past performance.
I totally agree. But, on the other hand, we aren’t the ones who would have to face the incredulous media if Broussard went 0-4 and we lost by a run.
143:
So, if Lopez plays at Chase Utley proportions the rest of the season (8.5 RC/G) instead of his current bottom of the league suckiness (4.2) He will end up around 5.3 RC/G for the season, good enough for 14th out of 21 2B.
If he puts up Ian Kinsler numbers (5.5, which is coincidentally what Lopez put up last year) he will make it all the way to 4.5, good enough for 19th place. Wooooo.
I’d say the most upside you’ll see is the latter (call it regression to the best he’s ever done). The worst downside, well, we’ve seen that for a month.
Dave –
If you were managing, would last night’s performance by Sexson (albeit a very small sample size) influence your decision regarding whether to play Sexson tonight? In other words, do you give any credence to the “play the hot hand” line of thinking?
I wonder if Jones will play tonight though…
Against a right-hander, after going 0-7 the last two games, and dropping that ball in left field last night? No way.
He banged into the wall pretty good. Has anyone heard if he’s OK? He looked a little shook up.
He’s only been playing outfield for a couple of years. While he will get to more balls than most, he may drop a few those too. It will come with time. He’s still a huge upgrade.
No I don’t have numbers to suggest this.
Best guess at tonight’s lineup:
Ichiro CF
Vidro DH
Guillen RF
Ibanez LF
Beltre 3B
Sexson 1B
Johjima C
Lopez 2B
Betancourt SS
Creative, aren’t I?
In other words, do you give any credence to the “play the hot hand” line of thinking?
I give the hot hand a small amount of credence when it’s lasted for 100+ at-bats. I give it no credence when it’s lasted for 30 at-bats. For instance, is Ibanez no longer on fire, since he’s 1 for 7 the last two games, including a 4 strikeout game on Sunday? Is his hot streak over? If he goes 3-4 tonight, did it just take a two day sabbatical? Who knows.
So, if I was filling out a line-up simply based on who I felt was likely to most help the team win tonight, Broussard would be in the line-up. If I had to personally deal with an angry insecure 6′8 guy wanting to beat the crap out of me for benching him the night after a walkoff home run, that might impact my decision.
I’ve said this a bunch of times regarding managers – their main job isn’t strategy, but instead, it’s keeping the players focused and motivated. McLaren just takes it to a ridiculous extreme, however, consistently putting an inferior squad on the field and showing no aptitude for the analytical side of the game. There’s a better balance to this than what Mac has shown.
145, LOL, I am a big AJ fan and I am not discounting anything he has done and will do for this team. I know plenty about statistics, stochastic processes, etc. (although it doesn’t matter at all). I also consider wikipedia to be an excellent reference, even for advanced math subjects as it is very accurate, to the point, and importantly: online and free. Although that is another discussion.
You said ’statistically worse’, when I was discussing volatility. I was wrong to assume that you didn’t know what variance was and I apologize. I do think that you misconstrued what I was saying though.
This is getting too ridiculous as in 130 Dave discussed what the research IS and I or no one else wants to REALLY look into it so it is simply an invalidated conjecture. It is not certain that “Rookie jitters are not quantifiable”, they may be, but they cannot be assumed to be statistically significant.
Regardless, this is a very refreshing blog and I hope you don’t all hate me because I do like you. Many of us have been into baseball a lot longer than we have been into statistics so the superstitions are at times difficult to not take for granted.
Since the phenomenon of rookie jitters (good phrase 145) is very much talked about, I do hope that someday someone (who is hopefully getting paid for such monotonous work) does either prove or disprove the idea. Hopefully formulated much better than I have been suggesting.
Is Betancourt in the right spot in the lineup?
If I had to personally deal with an angry insecure 6′8 guy wanting to beat the crap out of me for benching him the night after a walkoff home run, that might impact my decision.
IMHO it’s as much about the other 24 dudes as it is Sexson. These guys all expect to be rewarded for playing well – the entire establishment is based around rewarding past behavior.
Taking Sexson out of the lineup the day after a walkoff could be construed as jerking him around & might not make for a comfortable clubhouse (especially if it’s still not a declared platoon).
162-
I think he is a perfect 9 hitter. I was brought up in the school of baseball that your 9 hitter is only your second worst hitter and your worst is your 8 spot. Getting around to your lead off hitter with a little speed on the bases being the point. He hits for a good average for the spot and has some speed. Any double he hits, Ichiro has a good shot of getting him in.
Tony LaRussa has showed this point by hitting his pitchers in the 8 spot lately. They started that 10 hit inning with their pitcher in the 8 spot.
I can see playing Sexson tonight and maybe the next couple of days to see whether he truly has turned the corner (and to assuage the angry media types who would call for my head if I sat him after a game-winning bomb). What I’m worried about, though, is that McLaren will use this as an excuse to keep going with him the remainder of the year. After all, it took 4 months before he built up the courage to bench him.
3 weeks from now, with Richie in a 5-37 slump, Mac will still be able to point to the bomb Richie hit on August 13 as evidence that “he’s coming out of his slump and he’s a second-half player.”
I hate Mac.
Dave, or someone who has watched AJ in minors, seems that there has been a couple of plays that a slide or dive would have helped him make the play. You said he was a great fielder in AAA — is that great a la Curtis Granderson’s regular Web Gem style or great, as in steady, dependable if not spectacular? Just curious as to what we can expect. p.s I know diving is statistically not best play like sliding into first.
Say we want to project what Lopez will hit for the remainder of the season. His statistical record going into this season (encompassing a great many at-bats), as interpreted by ZiPS suggested that he’d be a .275/.314/.423 hitter. Based on his batted ball types this season, PrOPS expects him to be a .270/.303/.397 hitter. Lopez has actually hit .261/.295/.363. Side-by-side, those look like:
.275/.314/.423 — ZiPS
.270/.303/.397 — PrOPS, ‘07
.261/.295/.363 — 2007
As a quick-and-dirty method to project him, we could average those three mostly distinct sets of data together, and it’d give us a line of .269/.304/.394. League average for second basemen in the AL this year is .285/.343/.416. Some of that gap is park factor. It doesn’t look like Lopez is going to be a world-beater anytime soon, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be a giant black hole going forward, either.
Sexson’s 3-yr splits vs RHP – 261/339/525
Broussard’s 3-yr splits vs RHP – 276/340/479
(2004-2006 stats)
I still think Sexson is the right choice against RHP going forward. His splits are not as pronounced as somebody like Ibanez.
Steady and dependable in the field, your name is not Adam Jones.
I think it’s clear: Jones assets in the field are his speed, athleticism and arm. He’s not the second coming of Griffey Jr; who had great instincts and was willing to do anything to make a catch, to go along with alot of athleticism as well as good speed and arm.
This year:
Sexson v. RHP — 197/293/401
Broussard v. RHP — 288/340/453
I think it is clear that right now, Broussard gives the team a better chance to win against RHP than Sexson does.
Plus, it doesn’t hurt to get another LH bat into the lineup.
159 – Vegas would give you odds of around 4:3 for that exact line-up. Yeah, a very safe bet.
Re: Sexson and whether or not he should be sat:
In 1966, Art Shamsky of the Reds hit 3 homers in 3 consecutive ABs to end the game. One more homer would tie the ML record for consecutive homers. Shamsky, a left-handed batter, hit at least one of those homers off of a southpaw. His manager (Fred Hutch? I’m going off memory here and could be way, way off) benched him the next day as a southpaw was starting.
Shamsky was incredulous and as he reports, severely discouraged. He did tie that record the next day when called upon to pinch-hit. Interestingly, the Reds were mired in the middle of a 10-game losing streak while this was going on.
Now I am sure the manager at the time was thinking about R/L combinations when he sat Shamsky, and was desperate to alter the losing streak. But despite baseball’s increasing reliance upon metrics, isn’t instinct to be considered as well?
as a fan, I would like to see Sexson sit. As a manager, I’d probably play him given the fine game he had yesterday. I would not want to discourage him as the Reds manager did to Shamsky.
If you are going to play Richie (because of last night) and you are going to play Raul (because he has been “hot”), why not use Broussard as the DH and sit Vidro tonight? He just gave Beltre the night off, so you’d think that could happen with no hard feelings.
Steady and dependable in the field, your name is not Adam Jones.
Yes. What little you’ve seen him play outweighs his track record in Tacoma since converting and totally invalidates the huge strides he made last year.
Dave,
You’re a rock star in this thread.
So, not to throw cold water on that delightful discussion on whether 3 bad plays by Jones is a reflection of the statistical hypothesis that a player’s performance over his first few major league games is worse than his expected level of performance due to rookie jitterse…
THESE AREN’T ADAM JONES’ FIRST FEW MAJOR LEAGUE GAMES! He played 32 games last year.
So this discussion is not only silly, it’s irrelevant to the point at hand.
Re 172: The instinct of an experienced person can be useful in decision making if there are little or no other data to base a decision. That’s not the case here.
In any case, I haven’t (yet) heard McLaren describe his decisions as based on instinct or “gut feeling”. He HAS talked about making decisions based on woefully small sample sizes, hoary baseball platitudes, and requests by veteran players.
169 – what player is not willing “to do anything to make a catch?” I hate that phrase. I know you don’t mean it that way, but it implies players won’t try their hardest at all times.
Dave,
Where’s Aumont? The deadline is getting close and I’m getting nervous. Are the Mariners sitting on their hands waiting for other teams to sign their guys for slot context (as J pointed out on LL) or is there something else that’s still causing issues? I know we talked about a work visa earlier, is that still a concern and is there a clause that assists the Mariners in signing Aumont later if the visa doesn’t get done?
I know this is off topic, but I’m getting concerned.
Art Shamsky’s manager was Dave Bristol.
Shamsky wasn’t a very good hitter. He didn’t have the record of success that Sexson does. As far as I can tell, it was the only multi-homer game of his career. He hadn’t started the previous five games before the game where he was shocked Bristol didn’t start him; he hadn’t even started the game in which he hit the home runs. I’m not saying Shamsky shouldn’t have been disappointed to not start the next game, but I don’t think anyone should have been surprised.
Retrosheet doesn’t seem to indicate that Shamsky’s disappointment had a deleterious effect on his subsequent performance.
1a. Caught sight of Mariner Moose on ATV, feared Coco-like assault.
By the way, CompassRose — and this is a great example of the infallibility of memory — not only were the Reds not mired in a 10-game losing streak, they had won the game before Shamsky’s three-homer game. In fact, they’d won 19 of their previous 24! So maybe Bristol had another reason to not want to mess with his regular lineups.
170 – Sexson is an extremely streaky hitter. If he gets on track, it could be like adding a player like Pujols to the lineup such as Sexson’s 2006 post all star 1000+ OPS season.
I realize that it’s risky to take that chance based on this season’s results, but I don’t think that we can continue to outperform our win expectancy without some kind of improvement from our offense.
The entire mariner lineup is streaky. That is the thing that, for me, is one of the most frustrating things about the team.
I’m not terribly optimistic about Sexson turning it around for the remainder of the season, but since he’s probably playing anyway I hope he does.
By the time you find out if the faith in his short term performances is justified it’s too late, and you’re either vindicated or out of the playoff race. The odds of winning on that gamble judging from past experience? Not very good. I guess it could be argued that he was just in a slump for 4 months, but 4 months of regular playing time is an awfully large sample size to be explained away by deviation instead of a decline in his abilities.
It isn’t impossible that he’ll turn things around, it just doesn’t seem very likely all things considered.
Well, Willie Bloomquist could suddenly turn into Albert Pujols, too. I just wouldn’t bet on it.
I don’t think the possibility that Sexson is going to suddenly catch fire is a good justification for not giving Broussard playing time based on what he’s shown us he’s able to do with it.
I get what Michael Fox is saying. I don’t know about hitters, but it does seem like a lot of young pitchers go back and forth between spectacular starts and terrible start seemingly at random. Of course, even veteran players have occasional awful starts for no obvious reason and I have no idea if young players are more likely to have occasional bad starts than veteran players. It seems possible that people just make a bigger deal out of it when young starters struggle because it makes people wonder if they’re really ready to be in the majors whereas people have much more confidence in a guy who has been good in the past. I guess that could be another example of people putting too much faith in a small sample size. People have more faith in a guy who’s had years of mostly success with occasional failure than a guy who’s only had one season of mostly success with occasional failure. I think it’d be interesting to test the theory, but I’m not really sure how you’d do it and if I were going to guess, I think that probably it wouldn’t be a significant difference.
Yep, I think it’s based entirely on the fact that people are more ready to question someone who’s just come up to the majors rather than an “established” player.
So it’s sample size plus an inherent bias against youth, which seems to be pretty prevalent in baseball. Witness the comment about “young players get managers fired”.
I realize that it’s risky to take that chance based on this season’s results, but I don’t think that we can continue to outperform our win expectancy without some kind of improvement from our offense.
I agree and that’s why I advocate replacing Sexson in the lineup with Ben Broussard.
Since we called up Adam Jones (HE-MAN, MASTER OF THE UNIVERSE!), has he ever failed to start in left when Vidro wasn’t DHing?
If not, then McLaren is correctly recognising that the best place for Ibanez is DH, but it’s simply not available most nights because Vidro is there.
Dave,
Disregard my post question. I saw your answer to J over on LL which answered my question nicely, thanks.
TIF, who’s J on LL? I’d be interested to see the answer to your question too.
192,
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2007/8/14/1710/79273
It’s actually in one of the diaries off to the right on Lookout Landing.
149,
Nicely done.
Hmm Orioles up 5-0 over the Yankees so far, and Toronto up 4-1 over LA with Halladay on the mound.
This would be a perfect day to gain some ground…..oh wait….HoRam’s on the mound….
Ah but HoRam’s on the mound at home!! Much better chance.
29 (Teej) – They actually watch quite a bit of film. It has been made a lot easier for them than NFL players, though. After an at bat, you will see a guy head into the tunnel to watch the film which is made immediately available for them.
I had no idea. That makes sense, though. Thanks.
182: You’re quite correct. I was viewing info on games Shamsky played in. . . not the entirety of the Reds’ schedule.
I’m not second guessing Bristol. I’m simply saying that it is one of the many things that a manager has to measure. McLaren has come under much fire on this site for catering to players. I’m not saying that criticism is undeserved. But at the same time, after a night such as Sexson had, combined with managing his emotions, I’d probably play him today, stats notwithstanding.
All that said, if he stinks the place up tonight, I’d be searching for a reason to sit him. . .and that would probably do it for me.
Angels lose.
At least there won’t be any damage done if RoadHore shows up and gives it away.
We should send Halladay a thank you card for that 5 hit, 1 run, CG against the Halos. Yanks down 10-0 right now. It is on HoRam to get us a game closer.
[arrrghh]
I’m not saying I don’t want us to win, I’m just saying Minnesota has a much better pitcher out there tonight, and if we do lose at least no damage is done.