Contreras’ results have sucked since the all-star break as he’s given up 35 earned runs in 34 IP. That said, recently Dave has effectively preached from his soapbox about the flaws of evaluating players using a results-based analysis philosophy. In light of that, here’s a quick look at some of Contreras’ peripherals for his pre/post ASB splits:

pre-ASB: 100 IP;
BB%:8.1; K%: 13.1; GB%: 33.4; FB%: 25.5; LD%: 15.9; HR/FB: 6.0; FIP: 4.04; BABIP: .302;

post-ASB: 34 IP;
BB%: 6.0; K%: 12.5; GB%: 32.1; FB%: 33.3; LD%: 9.5; HR/FB: 16.1; FIP: 6.33; BABIP: .367;

Looking at Contreras’ peripherals, the biggest changes are that more of his fly balls have went yard in the second half (that is more luck than reflective of a skill) and he’s been more hit unlucky even though his LD% is significantly lower. Perhaps it’s a matter of location troubles (i.e. leaving things up in the zone). Maybe he’s just been very unlucky and his mistakes are just getting pounded during this stretch. In any event, these numbers don’t refute an assertion that Contreras’ skill set is there but lady luck hasn’t been. Given what we’ve seen last night, his stuff seems there.

So then if it’s reasonable to conclude that Contreras’ skill set is sufficient for him to represent an upgrade over HoRam, the next question is what might the impact of switching the two pitchers be over the remaining quarter of the season? We’re basically talking about 8 regular season starts and then perhaps 4 post season ones. Assuming those 8 starts translate into 50 IP (the math is much easier and this is just a rough estimate anyway), could Contreras really do enough to give the Ms a better chance at those post season starts?

Here’s few scenarios that might capture a reasonable range for the impact of replacing HoRam with Contreras over the remainder of the season. If both pitchers simply maintain their current ERAs (JC: 6.18; HR: 7.38), Contreras would be a 7 run upgrade or something less than a win. BTW, could there be worse initials for a pitcher than HR? If HoRam maintains and Contreras’ ERA matches his current xFIP (5.12), JC would be an 11 run upgrade as an M over those 50 IP representing a win improvement. If HoRam maintains and the Ms catch lightning in a bottle with Contreras having a league average ERA (4.60 for AL starters), then JC represents a 15 run upgrade or a bonafide 1.5 win advantage. Thus, while it’s probably not debatable that Contreras is an upgrade over Ramirez, the magnitude of the upgrade during the Ms playoff push could range anywhere from much to do about nothing to a significant boost.

In my mind, if Contreras is indeed the best arm available, the Ms should do something potentially stupid from a long term perspective in order to chase that potential 1.5 win boost assuming money and not talent is the major component of such a deal. Dave’s argument about the financial aspects of the pitching market greatly strengthen this conclusion because, if Dave is right, the risk is greatly reduced.

Up, down, excited, depressed, confident, woeful, happy, angry, up, down. What a season…