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Game 122, Mariners at Twins
Ramirez vs Garza, 5:05 pm.
HoRam on the road. Hilarity ensues.
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Twittah
adam jones would have had that.
Hey did you guys hear? We just picked up a half game on the Yankees! Woo!!
But seriously…one reason I doubt we can stay ahead of the Yanks is that they finish their season with 13 games against Tampa Bay, Toronto and Baltimore. They are very likely to pick up two or three games on us during that stretch. I really wish they’d beaten the Angels tonight.
It’s a positive either way. As crazy as it sounds, in a perfect scenario, I think I’d have the M’s sweep Minnesota, and the Angels sweep the Yankees. We’d end up being two back of the Angels still and 3.5 ahead of the Yankees.
I like those odds better than being virtually tied with both teams had the Yankees swept.
402 – Well, wouldn’t that be more reason to root for them to lose now? We need them to lose to good teams since we can assume they will beat the bad ones.
I don’t know if ARod wants to pitch, but former Seattle 3rd basemen apparently are doing it. Pitching line from tonight’s Brewers-Diamondbacks game:
J Cirillo 1.0 IP 0H 0ER 2BB 1SO
That inning he pitched? The 9th. Sure, it was a blowout loss and he was just saving the bullpen, but…
How would you like to be the guy who struck out against Cirillo?
When does UUSM admit to being wrong about Raul?????
but the Yankees sweeping the Angels would have been more positive.
and as for Yankees’ schedule, I agree, they have a much easier schedule in the last 2 weeks, but they also have one of the hardest schedules possible in the next 10 or so days. (Angles x 2/ Detroit x 4/ Boston x 3) In regards to the wild-card race, the Ms really need to extend their lead to 3-4 games by then to have a good chance.
When does panman start reading?
The only way Dave, or anyone else for that matter, is wrong about Ibanez is if they stated in some manner that Raul could not get on a hot streak of any kind.
I don’t remember reading Dave say that Ibanez couldn’t stay hot, either.
Just that streaks are streaks and all players, even the best of all-time, regress to the means.
It’s also better to win the division to get the extra home game. That way I can continue my streak of being present at every series clinching playoff game the M’s have won.
The question I have about Raul (sorry if this has been asked) is what is the mean we can expect him to regress to? Assuming his health played a factor in his subpar first four months of the season.
That is the most important question in the Raul v. Jones debate.
Why? Did Raul get a pair of leg transplants to increase his range in the field?
panman –
Go ahead and read some of the other threads. Dave admitted being wrong that Raul’s career was over.
Additionally, you won’t get very far around here taking a week and a half of good Raul Ibanez at bats and asserting that USSM was wrong for looking at several months of awful Raul Ibanez at bats and concluding his career might be over.
405 I just saw the highlights to the Diamondbacks game. He had some nice movement on those pitches. I think the M’s should trade Parrish for Cirillo.
That is the most important question in the Raul v. Jones debate.
No, it’s not, because the primary objective in playing Jones was to keep Raul from hurting the team in the field, not at the plate. As Dave said, you can DH him with Jones in the field, particularly when there’s a flyball pitcher on the mound (and in parks with large left fields, like Safeco). And even if Raul “regresses” to be as good at the plate as he was last year, he still shouldn’t be batting against lefties (’06: .308/.375/.955 vs RHP, .243/.301/.663 vs LHP) . I realize there subtleties here, but can we at least try to keep the terms of the “debate” straight?
405 (joser) – A-Rod played a grand total of 0 games at third base for the Mariners. I don’t think that qualifies him as a former Seattle third baseman.
No, it’s not, because the primary objective in playing Jones was to keep Raul from hurting the team in the field, not at the plate. As Dave said, you can DH him with Jones in the field, particularly when there’s a flyball pitcher on the mound (and in parks with large left fields, like Safeco). And even if Raul “regresses†to be as good at the plate as he was last year, he still shouldn’t be batting against lefties (’06: .308/.375/.955 vs RHP, .243/.301/.663 vs LHP) . I realize there subtleties here, but can we at least try to keep the terms of the “debate†straight?
You can’t just look at Jones’ potential as a defensive upgrade in weighing whether or not he would improve the team by playing every day. Since either Ibanez’s or Vidro’s bat would be out of the lineup each day as a result he’d also have to produce hitting numbers at least somewhat close to theirs in order to justify the defensive upgrade.
The bottom line is that Vidro’s and Ibanez’s 2007 wOBA statistics are now – after 122 games, 420+ at bats each, and factoring in all the hot and cold streaks – pretty damn close to their career averages. So that means that Jones would have to produce at an above average major league hitting level to maintain their hitting productivity.
Would he be able to do that? Maybe, but no one knows for sure. But if he wasn’t able to maintain similar offensive productivity then any improvement he brings to the team as a defensive upgrade is wiped out.
But if he wasn’t able to maintain similar offensive productivity then any improvement he brings to the team as a defensive upgrade is wiped out.
This is, of course, totally wrong. If a player is +10 offensively and -20 defensively, then he’s a -10 player. You do not have to replace him with a +10 offensive player in order for the defensive difference to be real.
-5 offense/+10 defense > +10 offense/-20 defense.
Really.
After seeing Jones play defense, I doubt he’s an above average defender at the moment. He’s better than Raul, but he is not in the league of Randy Winn right now.
That still leaves SUBSTANTIAL improvement, however.
It’s not evident to the casual fan (and certainly not to the Ms management) that Winn was a super defender in left. Jones can still be above average and not be Winn’s equal RIGHT NOW (and, of course, even average would be a substantial improvement…)
Maybe Randy Winn was a bad comp. But not only has Jones dropped a few fly balls, doesn’t seem to be getting a good first step. He has the speed to make up for this but it narrows the gap with Ibanez. Jones should be playing to give his teammates a day off here and there, but I can understand not wanting to watch Jones flail away at the plate with only a marginal improvement to the defense in the middle of a pennett race. Of course, the lightbulb could go on for Jones at anytime.
[deleted, namecalling]
There is no meaningful sample size yet about Jones’s ability to play defense at the major league level.
There’s tons of evidence of him being a very good defender in AAA.
No need for name calling dude.
The “Adam Jones is a terrible defender” thing is getting really old and has no merit. He is a -much- better defender than Ibanez, there is no debate about that, and it’s really annoying when ignorant people come here and repeatedly try to make that argument based off of one error and one great play that turned into a drop. There is no other way to describe that kind of thinking other than idiotic, sorry.
As frustrating as it is to see the bad arguments trotted out here over and over again, let’s try to keep it civil, guys.
But seriously, there is no reason to be so skeptical of Adam Jones’s defense based on a couple of bad plays that could easily be chalked up to nerves or just random bad luck.
He is a plus defender all by himself, and a plus plus defender when compared to Ibanez.
Free Adam Jones.
Has anyone seen my dead horse? I’d like to burry it now.
405 –
Jeff Cirillo 1K in 1 IP
HoRam 1K in 7.1 IP
Just a point – nerves is a great reason to consider someone a bad defender. The Rich Ankiel story should illustrate that perfectly. or Chuck Knoblauch, or Steve Sax. Arguably, errors due to nerves are more troubling that errors due to lack of ability.
So you’re really willing to dismiss all of the prior evidence of his fielding ability because he was possibly nervous on one or two plays? Seriously?
Yes, I’d call that arguable. Let me argue:
1. You’re naming three players whose nerves negatively and consistently affected their playing abilities. (Psst: you forgot Mackey Sasser!) You’re then extrapolating this wealth of evidence and creating a general hypothesis.
2. There’s speculation that Rich Ankiel’s pitching career didn’t end because of nerves, but because of a physical injury. Rob Neyer wrote about it last week.
3. There’s no evidence that nerves (again, excepting your long list of examples) are harder to fix than limited physical ability. My intuition tells me the opposite, but I don’t even need to use intuition.
4. Nerves are difficult to quantify, and therefore easy for you to associate with anyone you’d like when it serves the purpose of your argument.
Dave, with regard to people’s indifference to the difference between Adam Jones’ fielding and Raúl’s, I wonder if maybe those of us who are sabermetrically minded might not be the victims of past success. Seems to me I remember, 20+ years ago, Whitey Herzog (or someone in the Cards organization, but I think it was Whitey) declaring that Ozzie Smith saved 30 runs a year with his glove, and Bill James pooh-poohing that. More recent work has come along to say that yes, Ozzie did, and that pitching is much more about the fielders than we realized; but that was after a couple decades in which fielding metrics lagged behind the rest, while analytical advances shifted the attention somewhat to hitting and pitching. Maybe I’m misreading things, but it just seems to me that 25 years ago, the case that it’s worth swapping Adam for Raúl because of his glove would have been easier to sell than it is today.
431
What do you mean speculation?
It’s been known for a while that injury was at least partially responsible for Ankiel’s meltdown, and certainly responsible for ending his career.
“3. There’s no evidence that nerves (again, excepting your long list of examples) are harder to fix than limited physical ability. ”
Yeah, you just have to imagine the crowd in their underwear and the nerves disappear. 🙂
433: I decided to understate the point rather than overstate it, so as not to allow a digression on the cause of Ankiel’s earlier woes.
Either way, the point is: please don’t use the career of a single starting pitcher to not-so-subtly imply that a certain outfielder could play poor defense. They really, really aren’t related.
I haven’t seen nearly enough of Adam Jones to make a judgment about his fielding ability so I’ll take the word of those who’ve seen him play regularly in Tacoma that he’s developed into a good defender. Obviously, though, dropping catchable fly balls isn’t going to help your cause if you’re a rookie trying to break into the lineup during a pennant run.
And I was living in St. Louis when Rick Ankiel had his famous meltdown and it was hard to watch. Trust me, Ankiel’s problems weren’t physical. His story has nothing to do with a couple of OF drops by Adam Jones, though.
Jeff Cirillo 1K in 1 IP
HoRam 1K in 7.1 IP
Jeff Cirillo 2BB in 1 IP
HoRam 0BB in 7.1 IP
Anyway, Ks are overrated. HoRam had 16 GB outs (IIRC). According to Fangraphs, on balls in play he had 7 FB, 20 GB, and 3 LD (a 2.85 GB/FB ratio). If he could do that routinely, particularly against Teams That Matter, he’d be an ace. Top five (qualified) pitchers in baseball by GB/FB:
Derek Lowe…………… 3.47
Tim Hudson…………… 3.13
Fausto Carmona… 3.05
Felix Hernandez… 2.82
Brandon Webb………… 2.80
(And that, incidentally, is also the answer to the question “Why should you never play Vidro at 2nd behind Felix?”)
No, he wouldn’t be an ace, but if he could post that kind of G/F ratio every start, as long as he didn’t walk anybody, he’d be usable.
That said, Ks aren’t overrated; they’re the one kind of out that (excepting the occasional dropped third strike) aren’t subject to the vagaries of chance and the limitations of your fielders. The more Ks, the fewer balls in play; the fewer balls in play, the fewer hits; the fewer hits, the fewer runs. The more Ks, the greater your margin of error; the fewer Ks, the more you have to do everything else right in order to succeed.
437 Joser, I think those of us that are comparing Cirillo’s pitching performance to Horacio’s are doing it as a joke. Thanks for the GB analysis though.
437:
Looking at the stats, you’ll notice that the guys you listed there also strike out the occasional batter.
HoRam could be the first pitcher to post an ERA greater than 7 and still win 10 games since Colby Lewis of the Indians, did it in 2003. Now that is an accomplishment that you put front page of the Mariner Magazine.
Yeah, I know. I originally posted it as a joke (which was why I wasn’t too precise with the whole “former Mariners who play as 3Bs wrt Arod).
Anyway, what I meant by over-rated was that Ks get disproportionate attention. They’re the sexy stat, just like HRs are for hitters. But there’s more than one way to get an out. Groundballs in play do not frequently result in runs; if they do, then you need to upgrade your infield. And Ks are often the most expensive way to get an out in terms of pitchcount. You can get 3 outs in 3 pitches with groundballs with little chance of giving up a run. You can’t get 3 Ks with 3 pitches. Now, if you don’t trust your infield defense then yeah, you definitely want to see Ks. And if you’ve got a good bullpen and you’re not worried about a long roadtrip with no rest days, that pitchcount certainly is nothing to worry about. But if not, a guy who can get through a lot of innings without giving up a lot of flyballs is a very valuable addition to your rotation.
The reason Felix is so highly regarded, of course, is that he’s both a high-K pitcher and a groundball guy.
Looking at the stats, you’ll notice that the guys you listed there also strike out the occasional batter.
So does HoRam. Just ask Nick Punto 😉
Like I said, if he could do that routinely against teams with actual, detectable offenses, he’d be a valuable guy. But he can’t, and he won’t; nevertheless, a W is a W and if they can get something similar from him against say Oakland and Tampa, well… those Ws would count too. But his next start is going to be in Texas, and I don’t have a lot of faith in him there or when he’s facing NY, LAA, or DET either.
Honestly, sometimes I feel like this team is Wile E Coyote running across the canyon on a cloud of Anaheim Roadrunner dust, and they’ll keep gaining just as long as nobody looks down…
442-
HoRam is well under 4 K’s per game this year in the AL. You won’t find many MLB pitchers who can live like that for very long- and the ones that do don’t have BB = or > K like HoRam.
Even Bill “Spaceman” Lee, who was probably a good archetype for this (no stuff at all, ground balls) had career numbers of 2.5 BB/3.3 K. Horacio is at 3.5/4.19… but Lee pitched more innings in a league with the DH and in leagues where K numbers were a skosh lower. And Lee’s also one of the few guys who had any decent career doing this.
The bottom line is if you want to live on groundballs and can’t strike guys out because your stuff won’t break a pane of glass, you can’t walk people. Period. HoRam has lousy command of the zone, and that’s why he’s a poor candidate for future success. If he stops walking guys, period, and gets lots of GBs, he MIGHT have a shot, but it’s a marginal one at best.