Game 122, Mariners at Twins
Dave · August 20, 2007 at 5:16 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Ramirez vs Garza, 5:05 pm.
HoRam on the road. Hilarity ensues.
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And same old same old lineup.
I predict that we get absolutely decimated.
I would like to begin my campaign for Jorge Campillo right now.
Yay Hilarity! Yay winning in spite of everything! Yah no Santana!
(That’s 8:05 EDT. 5:05 back here on the left coast)
Boy, Meche is looking awfully attractive right now. And I’m not speaking of man crushes.
Hmm Minnesota -155 seems pretty safe. Hope we can somehow find a way to hit Garza and HoRam doesn’t get torched…. I’m asking for a miracle.
Rauuuuul
On fire!
[no, no, no]
Raul Ibanez. Homer-friendly park. Nuf said.
Wow. I’m liking the “he’s returning to career mean” line of thinking on Raul a lot more now.
He should still sit vs. LHP’s and not play left, however.
The Metro is due for a high-strikeout game from an LHP. Oh, wait…that happened to a *good* LHP already. Dangit. Here’s hoping we at least get a high HBP game…
10: I totally agree.
Well we all know it’s not streakiness
How many first inning two run homers is that for the Mariners since the all-star break? Bejebus.
Great for Raul to hit the HR. However, we need plenty of those when we have HoRam on the mound
This IS hilarity, Sexson home run.
Well, thats a good start.
en fuego.
according to Raul and the various talking heads, once his shoulder & back healed, he got his legs under him once more– NormNorm commented last night that you could see his stance was back to looking like last year.
BIG SEXY!!! Looks like it’s USSM-opposed-player vindication night. Watch HoRam go pitch a shutout now.
KENJwait never mind.
Great. Sexson crushed the ball
Half an inning, and HoRam still hasn’t given up anything.
Maybe, just maybe, HoRam can hold onto this for an inning?
Looks like the offense doesn’t want to let Ho-Ram lose the game. But we will see who has more determination!
How long Raul can keep this up, who knows, but he’s still hot, that’s for sure. And as long as he’s hot, he’s got to play more often than not. Same goes for Big Sex.
Five more and I will feel safer with HORAM on the mound.
Calling Jose Contreras! Calling Jose Contreras!
was kenji as close to a HR as the gamecast showed?
Love 4 run cushions before the other team even gets to bat. Ho just gets crazy run support.
I am sure those HRs were random, but I’m still pretty happy about it.
26- It was caught up against the wall. Pretty close.
#26: Yes. It was right at the warning track.
so, is it a good thing if HoRam pitches ok?
#28: I’m pretty sure those HRs were due to a high fastball pitcher against a team that murders high fastballs.
Even with a 4-run lead in the first inning, I’d still have to put my money on the twinkies.
#22 pygmalion:
Lol, hilarious!
I just tuned in to FSN when Richie hit his. Wow, that was a loud crack of the bat. Don’t know if it was just how the mics happended to pick it up that one time, but it sounded like a cheap sound effect.
Does anyone know why Yuni has soooo many errors this year (comparing to last season)?
I know they shelled him last time, but how much damage can a lineup wIth two righthanded major league hitters (4 total) really do?
36: They’re almost all throwing errors. His release point was way off for a while.
Well, this game is looking better. Hopefully Ho-Ram can salvage a decent game.
As for #36, Throwing errors, my friend.
Yes, home runs are entirely random.
Can I hope? Only 8 more innings to go.
Watching gameday might even be harder than watching the TV… so many HoRam meatballs up and inside. This could get ugly quick.
Does anyone know why Yuni has soooo many errors this year (comparing to last season)?
Streakiness.
Maybe we can win 11-10 with HoRam giving up 10 ER. It’d be a win, win day. Add another win to the day because either the Yanks or Angels will lose, unless Bud Selig is there and decides that they’ve used enough pitchers for one game.
Ok, who is everyone rooting against tonight? I just can’t decide if I’d [being hopeful and rooting for a win] rather extend the WC lead or creep up closer in the West.
Wow, a perfect first inning by Horam (if you take away that one pitch to Hunter).
Keep the singles flowing Ichiro and Turbo!
46- Thats about as good an inning as your gonna get from him, I think.
I’m a fan of Lopez, even if nobody else is.
It may just be my bias, though, because I play 2B…
45:
I WANT THE WEST!!!!
Gameday viewers, if you’re wondering why Lopez didn’t advance to third there, it’s because the ball barely got over the leaping second baseman.
Ok, who is everyone rooting against tonight?
The Twins.
Yay – tornado warning in Omaha… They may complain about the rain in Seattle, but it’s nothing compared to the schizophrenic weather in the midwest.
52 – that’s this evening
Why didn’t Lopez score there?
Did HoRam wear Twins uniform or did we make a trade with the Twins? not I’m complaining
Come on Jose…
Wow, great play there cost us a run :/
damn
Terrible baserunning. Or did Garcia hold him up? Looked on the replay like it was all Lopez that time.
Lame inning after getting two on.
Lopez needed to be running on that play. Bad baserunning.
D’oh!
55 – I’m wondering that too.
Garza: good on the road, sucks at home.
Ramirez: well, you know that story.
Anti-gravity?
So, considering the age-old “A-Rod” nickname scheme, I think a good moniker for Guillen would be “Hoagie.”
I think the Yankees will finish ahead of the Angels and the Mariners. Therefore I think it best that they sweep the Angels.
That was bad. Let Garza off the hook. We need this game, bad. Replace Ho Ram at first sign of trouble.
Don’t blame Jose…he’s not on first (much less third) very often. Completely dumbass baserunning…seriously
The slo mo on that catch was fabulous — when I was a kid I remember reading about how (supposedly) Japanese fighter pilots before WWII would train by sitting motionless in a room with buzzing flies and practice snatching them out of the air to train their reflexes. Punto displayed approximately that level of skill.
67
“first sign of trouble?”
How about when he boards the bus from the hotel
It begins.
One thing you gotta love about HoRam — the man doesn’t leave you hanging in agony waiting his regression to his own, miserable mean.
Ho…
0-2 fastball down the middle?!!??
I’ll be THEY know how to get in a run from third w/ less than two outs
Lopez with yet another bobble on a fairly routine grounder. Something’s going on there.
74
That must be the elusive “out” pitch we’ve been waiting all year for (eyes rolling)
Prediction: Minnesota won’t leave that run over at third the way we did.
I-chi-NO, I don’t think so!
ich just saved a run there…
77
Hopefully I’ll continue to be wrong w/ a barely .200 hitter up and now TWO outs.
All your base are belong to Ichiro.
78 – nope
Why most of HoRam’s pitches are high?
82. . .wtf??
um, runner left at 3rd. nice off speed by Ho…
84: Because he isn’t a major league pitcher.
78: Well, Ichiro saved that run. If HoRam can keep it at this rate: giving up 1 run every 2 innings, we’d still have the lead after the 6th. And that’s all I am looking for.
Ichiro has set up us the bomb
85: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_your_base_are_belong_to_us
RAUUUUUUUUL!
HOT HOT HOT
They Call Him The Streak!
Pardon me sir, did you see what happened?
and all your baseballs belong to Raul.
ESPN is running a “Face of the Franchise” thang, with writers & commentators weighing in for each team. Crasnick posted today about the Ms, and I see that on Wednesday “Derek Zumsteg of USSMariner.com” will name his ‘face’.
could it be, I don’t know … maybe … Ichiro!??
Why must we view M’s fans pimping for rally fries when we have the lead?
Dave seems much more cautious with his ‘fly away!’ since his hilarious wrong call the other day. He’s waiting until it’s actually over the wall.
wow this little run is unreal
Raul: Take THAT, USS Mariner!
Don’t feel bad, rsrobinson. I made an “All your base are belong to us” sign and held it up at Safeco when we had the bases loaded. The response I got from the other fans was crickets.
wow
Just in case anyone thinks I’m sitting here stewing that Ibanez is hell bent on proving us wrong… I’m sitting here laughing. I find this quite comical.
unreal, so much fire
I just hope that Raul can maintain this random statistical variation for a few more weeks.
Too bad Ho doesn’t want to prove you wrong but I guess that requires actual talent.
100 – Dave, that’s the reaction I would expect. Let’s see who else can prove you wrong.
George Brett coined the Mendoza line
I wonder if Ibanez reads the blog?
Dave: I don’t think anyone seriously thinks that (well, at least not the folks who have been around here for the last several years). But you’re right, it’s really funny. And it has the added benefit of being good for the team.
Kenji swings at one over his head just daring any pitcher to try to walk him
Dave,
Let me ask you this then. Do you think he should be replaced by AJ tomorrow? Would you even agree maybe we should ride the hot bat for a couple more days to see if it continues? If so, how long to you watcha regression before making the change?
I wonder if Ibanez reads the blog?
I hope not. Hunched over a computer shoving a mouse around is murder on an injured shoulder.
Those first two homeruns provide no predictive value as to whether there’ll be a third.
Can we trade stadiums for a couple months please?
Sucks that we all know this game isn’t over.
Yuni runs like he has breasts.
argghh cmon ussm server I know you can do it
So I just got home and logged on … what in the blue blazes has gone on so far? 7-1 in the 3rd?
I’d still sit Ibanez v LHP.
a) he’s got a career of not being able to hit them well
b) if the key to his recent success is staying healthy and particularly keeping his legs and shoulder in good shape, you want to keep him well-rested
I say, Adam Jones for MVP. I mean – as soon as they called him up, Ibanez caught fire? Coincidence?
if HoRam can’t pull this game out…oh boy.
Johjima’s HR didn’t move the Fangraph win probability a millimeter.
Raul’s career is a walking statistical anomaly. The guy I think we all had doubts about.
LOL, I love it, but it’s funny to keep seeing him do this year after year. For the record, I want AJ out there and Raul as DH, but if he keeps going like this I will just laugh and enjoy it.
I’d start Jones over Guillen tomorrow – Guillen hasn’t had a day off in forever and there’s a righty on the mound. Then I’d start Jones in left on Wednesday, stick Ibanez at DH, and give Vidro the day off. Then, I’d play Jones in left and give Ibanez the day off on Thursday against a lefty.
There are ways to make this work without benching anyone.
116: 4 HRs are what happened
Do we have ENOUGH runs for HoRam to pitch 6 innings?
I can’t see McLaren sitting Ibanez. I’m all for it, but I don’t believe he thinks like every other reasonable baseball manager.
SBG, #111; you are incorrect.
There’s a zero percent chance to hit three home runs if you haven’t already hit two.
one good thing about HoRam starts…I think the hitters are fully aware that it’s a HoRam start and get crackin…
#122 – Dave,
My feelings exactly. I don’t understand why Mac won’t use the bench (well, I understand, but it’s just so dumb!).
Circle me Bert… oy, that annoys me.
(Then again, I’m sure they say the same thing about “Rally Fries.”)
#122– oh, Dave, there you go being all reasonable and logical again.
huh? what, with his forearms tucked over them to keep from jiggling?
If they can keep the score this lopsided, it ought to improve the M’s Season Win Probability totals (which are calculated from RS, RA, games not yet played and wins to date). Yippee.
It’s a bird!!!
It’s a plane!!!
It’s a 1-2-3 inning!!!
This is a good example of why managers like to go with hot hitters. You can quote statistical studies until you’re blue in the face and there’s still not a manager in baseball who wouldn’t be pencilling Raul into the lineup everyday right now. You just don’t do it the way he’s been hitt
DMZ, agreed. I guess the real problem here is Vidro’s current hot streak is what’s really holding AJ out of the lineup. People at work and such argue with me that sitting him would hurt team chemistry, which makes me want to pull my hair out.
Let’s pretend Vidro’s ground balls stop squeaking through. Has Raul, to anyone’s knowledge, stated any desire not to DH? The guy has to know how bad of a fielder he is. I’d safely assume Turbo will regress sooner and faster anyway.
Let’s all just pray now Mclaren doesn’t see the score and think it’s a good reason to leave HoRam out there long enough to lose this game…
In other news: it was nice to see Kenji tee off, I don’t pay the closest attention but I think that’s the first one in a while no?
117 I’d have to agree. If not for crappy numbers against LHP’s but for the rest. 41 games left, 24 of them on the road with only two days off and one being a travel day. I think Mac is finally going to have to find a way to get Broussard and AJ in there so these guys don’t get burned out.
Did Dave just speak French there?
What 11. something era on the road? Who is this guy. maybe he, (HoRam), is learning to pitch—on line.
There are ways to make this work without benching anyone.
Exactly! Especially given the murderous schedule ahead.
HoRam is making the Twinkies look like a triple A team. unfortunatley HoRam is a AAAA pitcher not an ace
ok, so if this isn’t just the crappy Twins offense, but instead that HoRam has somehow fixed that pesky pitch- velocity-differential problem, do they have to invent a Pitching Coach of the Year award just for Chaves?
22 34 Looked like I underestimated one thing: the determination of the pesky Twinkies to not let Ho-Ram inflate his ERA!
HoRam’s era says he should be able to pitch 6 innings and win
awesome — this kills their bullpen for the rest of the series…
Vidro seems to get a lot of walks. Pitchers must be terrified of his power singles.
122 (Dave) – You don’t really expect that to happen though, right? Ibanez continues to hit cleanup against lefties lately.
Is McLaren really this naive, or is he afraid to rock the boat? Any chance we should expect something different next year (assuming he’s still here)? I completely hate how he is managing, but I want to hope it’s a temporary thing. I can’t believe I wanted this guy to replace Lou when he split for Tampa.
Amen!
AMEN!!!
Can I HAVE A WITNESS, BRETHREN!!!
It is both great and hilarious, bur Dave is right, you need to make room for Jones, and there are ways to do it without benching anyone. Frankly I am more worried about getting another 3 innings out of HoRam.
141:
I think Dave Duncan of STL should win year in, year out if they had such an award. Think Weaver last year and he has Joel Pineiro at 3-1 since joining the Cardinals. Who would’ve thunk it?
129. The ‘Circle Me, Bert’ signs were at Safeco last week. Jeez, keep it at home! Oh, wait, there’s those damn rally fries signs.
130. To me, Yuni’s running, head/shoulders back, chest stuck out, forearms clamped to sides, suggests hidden moobs.
if Jose keeps arguing, maybe AJ can get it that way…
There are ways to make this work without benching anyone.
Is there analysis available to look at the effect of reducing a player’s at bats — for example, platoon performance versus play-everyday performance?
[deleted, rampant stupidity]
Mike Cameron, right?
Ibanez is not proving that a hot streak will continue indefinitely, nor is he proving that a good day yesterday means a good day today. I don’t see how Ibanez is proving Dave wrong.
Dave/DMZ
Just wondering a couple of things:
1) What’s the best explanation for why Garza was so much worse vs us and/or we’re so much better vs him, compared to last week?
2) Does it have anything to do w/ why he’s struggled in the Metrodome previously? Seems like that would be way too simple of an answer.
So far so good. However, it’s still very early in the game. HoRam can easily blow the lead in ANY INNINGS. Twins got 2 of the top 5 HR leaders in the lineup.
I think we were a couple of Guillen words away there from an AJ sighting in RF.
154:
Yup. 4 HRs at the White Sox.
yeah…. 154 you’re right… and these dudes are clowns.
seattle pilots??
Yeah, these announcers are worthless…
“I don’t think any Mariner has hit four in a game.”
161:
Please tell me you’ve heard of them.
Ha, chances of HoRam pitching a 1 run CG…?
Just a little insight on the Twins. In the last 17 games, they’ve scored more than three runs three times. In their last four home games before tonight they’ve scored four runs (three wins!).
Punto is at -20 VORP. Rondell White is -8 VORP in 66 PA. Joe Mauer is 0-17. Morneau has two RBIs this month and hasn’t hit a home run in three weeks.
In short, they’ve sucked badly for a long time.
I have, i just thought it was silly the announcers reached that far back…
164: I’ll be generous and give him 1/54396
I like that they act they all of the sudden remember the right answer.
Assuming the M’s hold on, they will be playing .600 ball when HoRam takes the hill. Anyone know if there has been a starter who has gotten to 15 starts, had an ERA over 7, and won twice as many as they had lost? That’s a hell of a statistical fluke!
Speaking of HoRam, has anyone noticed how bad Soriano has been lately? He’s now given up 11 HR in 54 innings, and has been demoted out of the set-up role. Not that I think he got a good return, but it is hard to argue that Billy B didn’t make a good choice to ship him out when he did.
Nice D, Beltre!
I love you, Beltre. Let’s spend the rest of our lives together.
Beltre. Gold Glove.
If Beltre doesn’t get the GG this year I’m going to call shenanigans.
Awesome
169 -
Actually, it’s pretty hard to argue that it was not a disastrous trade.
What did Chaves do to HoRam? He looks pretty good today, at least luck is on his side.
Richie up to his old tricks again.
#156 – I don’t think you need Dave for the first question. It’s a subpar pitching performance in a park tailor made for home runs. Not too complicated. The guys at the game seem to think his sinkers not sinking, so that could be a huge part of it.
The real question here is…
Is this the first time we’ve had a Funk Blast, Explosion de Funk, and Suggoi Ippatsu have been hit in the same game (assuming we can count Raul as an EDF)?
Seriously Horam, your team is handing you this win on a platter, both defensively and offensively.
What’s wrong with Lopez these days? What happened to our former All-Star?
181 (maalox) – He regressed.
I too think the Soriano-HoRam trade was a major disaster. Even with the injuries, Soriano’s upside is still way better.
I told my (also baseball-loving) sister recently that the M’s are doing it with mirrors. I still think that, but it’s fun to watch nonetheless. Is my impression correct that we miss Santana this series?
What the heck is up with:
A) this game?! Holy cow! Nutty! I love it!
B) Post 153 and “baseballismylyf.” Lust, shitting and rape? What is this, Hustler?
179- Beltre and Kenji had back to back bombs against the Red Sox at Safeco a while back. Jeff Weaver got the start against Taveras. Good game.
Lopez and Betancourt are both still young and learning. They’re going to have ups and downs. For that matter, that’s true of established players too; it’s just the nature of the game. Which is part of why the M’s FO’s overvaluing of veterans is a bad thing.
Did they seriously just mention Nick Green and “building to the FUTURE” in the same graphic?
Santana struck out 17 Rangers yesterday.
182, I forgot, this is a stats crowd. Really, though, has anyone identified any problems with his swing? It just seems like he’s constantly hitting it to the pitcher or 2B. Softly.
184, Regarding item B… we were doing a good job ignoring him before you showed up >:(
179 – Raul is teaching Ichiro Spanish, so I think we can count him as an E de F.
175 – The reason I write all that stuff, semi-tongue-in-cheek, is the perception that this trade has been an unmitigated disaster. Looking at HoRam’s game logs, he’s pitched well enough to win in about half of his games, about all you can expect from a fifth starter. In the other games, well, you can only lose them once. Combine that with the fact that Soriano has again not held up for an entire year, and you could argue that the trade ended up being a wash, at least if you get HoRam the hell out of the rotation tomorrow.
Note: I am not saying that poor Horacio is likely to be a good player going forward, that he is a good pitcher, or that I would make that trade again if possible. Just that it wasn’t a complete disaster.
Haha… boos erupting from the crowd. Loves it.
Well, that DP sure helped HoRam. Who are we supposed to root for in the NYY-LAA series? Hoping both teams suffer multiple injuries seems to me to be in poor taste and unsporting….
178 – Garza is just lousy at home. Has been all year.
I really want HoRam to give up 5 runs his next inning so he can get the hell out of there and we never have to see him pitch again.
#183 – Soriano could have fetched a lot better than Ramirez, but it certainly wasn’t his “upside” – he was entering his Age 27 season after effectively missing all of 2005 and 2004.
I’m sure the thinking was that Soriano couldn’t keep himself off the DL -and- be effective for very long. He’s been solid in Atlanta (despite 11 HR’s allowed) but no worldbeater – about as effective as any of the faceless guys in the Mariners pen.
193 -
Yankees. If the Angels win, we don’t gain any ground, and our position in the wild card is still just as tenuous as ever.
If the Yankees win, and we take care of business, then we are closer to taking the division lead.
193 — root for 15 inning games with both staffs being overspent. I say NY, at least then we can lead the AL West and not have to worry about 5 teams.
191–I think that comment “at least if you get HoRam the hell out of the rotation tomorrow” does serious damage to the rest of your argument. Basically, Bavasi traded a guy who’s great when he’s healthy (which unfortunately isn’t often) for a guy who’s not good at anything. Hard for me to see that as anything but a really bad trade (admittedly not at the level of Woodward’s worst).
196 – but we would have ended the useless obsession over finding a “right-handed setup guy,” because Soriano would have been that guy.
Dustin, age 17, you’re an idiot.
Cool! It’s a complete game now. We can root for the rain to come in and…
What’s that?
A dome?
Damn!
199–I like how you think. 196–I’m not objecting to getting rid of Soriano and his injuries, but, like you, I think they could have done a lot better than HoRam.
185 – That’s only two of the three.
190 – Good point. I wasn’t sure if Ibanez even spoke Spanish. He was born and raised in Miami if I recall, and speaks pretty clean English.
(Wonders how long it will take for “baseballismylife4″ to go into the moderation queue.)
3… 2… 1…
how about now: chances of HoRam’s 1 run CG?
Pretty much the only thing I can remember about Soriano was getting drilled in the face by a line-drive.
That, and the name “Joboo”.
198 – Thanks for continuing to teach others how not to constructively participate in this blog. I hope the rest of you are taking notes.
Also, why would you link to your MySpace page, only to have it set to private? Just to add an extra click to my quest towards carpal tunnel?
No need for the mod queue – his account has been deleted.
208:
You mean Dustin, age 17? LOL. I was wondering the exact same thing.
208 — what?
206 -
I’m still saying virtually none. If he manages to stay in that long, he’ll allow at least 3 more runs. 6 IP, 1 ER would be fortunate, to say the least.
Here’s the thing Beckya – when analyzing the past it is OK to use statistics of outcomes, e.g. wins and losses. When predicting the future, advanced metrics do a much better job.
Analogy: If I take a ‘74 Pacer with 3 on the tree on a Kamakaze run up the AlCan highway, and I make it, the trip was a success. It doesn’t argue that it was a good idea, or that I should do it again.
And to be more accurate, he traded the last arbitration year of a guy who was hurt all through winter ball for a marginal starter. Other than the sheer awfulness of some of HoRam’s worst starts, it has worked out exactly like both teams probably thought it would. Both guys are barely hanging on to their jobs, and will be scrapping for a one-year deal come springtime.
sf-seattle – Sorry, dude. The guy who previously held #198 was just deleted. So, you took over the spot. Just how the blog works.
211: A previous #198 was deleted.
Lets have a big inning, Twinkies! You have your 4 good hitters up now, just a walk, a single, a walk, and a grand slam and send HoRam out of the game and never be allowed to pitch again.
I’d feel better if the M’s could tack on a few more runs. I don’t like all those zeros after the 3rd inning…
I read the post about not generalizing from recent performance with interest. I think this is just another example of the stat principle that you always get better predictions from a larger sample size than from a smaller one. In other words, looking at a guy’s whole career tells you a lot more than his last 10-15 games; everything eventually evens out. Similar to the idea that the full season tells you more about a team than postseason performance.
Karen,
I totally agree, especially with our wondering #5 starter giving up leadoff hits.
214-215 — np, what did I miss? anything good?
Yup about that time to warm somebody up.
I hope the bullpen is on Defcon 1 no matter how HoRam pitched through five.
Damn, if only that was a HR…
PLEASE GO IN NOW JONES NOW NOW NOW
Wow, is the defense saving HoRam or what?
Nothing of importance. Just a 17 year old being a 17 year old: stupid and immature. Then, he links his myspace page.
Nice catch!!! Warm up #10. He’s limping.
Yeah, HoRam is starting to look a little wobbly. I hope someone’s warming up in the pen…and McLaren is paying attention!
Adam Jones please proceed to the nearest white telephone.
ich and guillen saved 2 runs…
Seriously, Guillen needs to get a rest soon. Give him a day off tomorrow, Mac.
Is it against the rules to move the outfield wall back two feet to make a catch?
I’ll happily trade runs for outs at this point, but I still think HoRam needs to go away…soon….
Guillen’s capable of showing a lot of drama and then coming on with a vengence — I wonder if he’s not vamping a bit on some of these limps and foul tips into his own knee.
Guillen still has an absolute cannon. What a throw.
In related news, Rick Ankiel, who couldn’t throw a pitch straight from 60 feet away, throws a laser to third today to gun down Ryan Theriot trying to turn a double into a triple.
A couple weeks ago someone asked if Ibanez wound up with 20 homers and 100 RBI if we’d consider it a productive season, and someone else pointed out that he’d really have to catch on fire to hit 20 homers. Well, what does everyone think now? Is Ibanez and Vidro effectively carrying the team in the 2nd half? (Note: This is not a Vidro-love post, just stating that so far in the 2nd half he has performed well offensively, not that I believe it’s sustainable.)
230–the Metrodome is unique. I’m not sure that what gets played there is really baseball, but it often is entertaining. And props to the Minnesota folks for refusing to be blackmailed by ownership into giving them a new stadium.
6 IP, 2 ER = QS for HoRam on the road —- if they get him out of there soon enough.
I refuse to root against the team in order to get players benched. Especially with only 6 weeks left, the sample size is so small that the loss that gets the benching could be a bigger difference than the wins saved.
Nah…MacLaren’s gonna try to “stretch” Ho-Ram out to a full seven innings…
A mere single? We want AJ.
I’m not convinced Ichiro saved a run earlier – it was a shallow flyball to center, a less-than-swift runner on third. Considering even your “replacement level” center fielder has the arm to make a generally accurate 230-foot throw to the plate.
Maybe if that’ Broussard making that catch, they run. But they wouldn’t run on any other the M’s outfielders.
Did the announcer just say he’d rather get drilled by a Twin instead of a Mariner?
Wow. I can’t believe Ibanez made it.
241- Glad I wasn’t the only one who laughed at that.
I think Ichiro is responsible for that bloop double that eventually turned into a run, at he should have least held it to a single. He’s in charge out there.
Raul shows his wheels!
When did Raul become a speed demon??
240 – and THAT is why Ichiro saved a run. Ibanez should have been nailed.
237 As compelling as are the arguments made by the authors for more playing time for Broussard and Jones I’m resigned to the fact that McLaren is dead-set against using them in any of the scenarios they should clearly be used in. I refuse to let the remainder of a good season go by the way much of the first two-thirds of it has, with me sitting bitterly grumbling about the manager and FO.
It’s the stretch run and it should be a blast, so go Ibanez, Sexson, and Vidro…we’re stuck with you so kick some ass!
When we are 1 game out playing the Angels and some gets gunned by 10 feet like Raul should have I am going to say “I fucking told you so!”. Garcia is going to lose us a big game with one of those calls at 3rd. Don’t tell me situation crap, he does it in close games to.
Lopez is showing some love.
Unfortunately, I suspect that extra run ensures that HoRam goes out for the next inning….Make that 2 extra runs.
Lopez with a RBI?
becky- why is getting more rest for the pen unfortunate?
wtg jose!
247–you make a good point. I often find my loathing for the FO gets in the way of appreciating the team’s success. If they would just move up to mediocrity I wouldn’t have that problem, but there’s nothing we can do about that.
243 Funny stuff
245 Raul got lucky, I think he should have been held at third.
Nice to see Johijima hit something other than a groundball. I can only imagine how good this team would be offensively if Johjima starts to heat up.
OK – teams on the skids, weak pitching, whatever is contributing to the recent offensive onslaught… It is definitely nice to see our boys putting up some numbers rather than raising that LOB average.
247 254 All too true. Luckily Ichiro! keeps me pretty happy.
252–You’re right, in this situation keeping HoRam in probably makes sense. I was speaking to the general principle (being expressed by many an inning ago) that keeping HoRam in would be a bad idea. However, at this point, even he probably can’t blow a 7 run lead. (When I started that post it was a 6 run lead, thus a little more vulnerable.)
So, what are the odds on Ho-Ram going 8+ innings now?
We spend a lot of time talking about how bad our FO is, and I know it’s true, but I’d like to see a post or two about some good FOs in baseball and examples of how they’ve been consistently better.
259–could be, that was a very easy inning for him.
Was that his first k?
260 – Red Sox, Atlanta, Oakland, NY….should i go on?
262: yes
262 – yep.
263 – I was looking for examples, not just names.
260–I’d be very interested in that too. The A’s and Twins have been a model for many years, but both seem to have slipped recently. I’ve seen props given to the Indians on this site. My vague impression is that Theo Epstein (Red Sox) is very good. It’s hard to evaluate NYY because they have so much more money than anyone else. Nobody in the NL really sticks out for me, except possibly Atlanta. DMZ and Dave, could you speak to this?
263 I think the poster wanted some details on what good front offices actually DO that makes them good
For those of you who hate our FO and manager, here’s an exercise for you. Think about who you would want to be running the team. Find a forum for the team that they are currently running and see what the fans think of them.
With one or two exceptions (e.g. Beane), my prediction is that you’d find reactions similar to ours, especially with respect to field managers (and third base coaches especially). Whenever I feel horribly about our management, I surf to other forums and feel much better.
It seems like every time we really start bashing someone on USSM above the common “he can’t hit” they go off. We couldn’t wait for Vidro to get benched, hit .400 since the break. We started pulling out weak HR numbers with Ral and he started hitting them all over the place. We couldn’t wait to DFA Weaver and here he is being a solid #4. And Sexson… Sexson… oh Sexson what more do we need to say then you are over paid and out best 1st baseman might as well be a hat rack.
With a 7 run lead, Horacio should be left out to see if he can finish the game. Saving the bullpen as much as possible is a good thing.
260 – that’s what I get for taking my time typing my comment
Think about it though. Torre has won 4 World Series titles and even he can’t escape mockery; Yankees fans call him Clueless Joe and rail about his bullpen management.
I’m going to officially call this a quality start for HoRam. He’s got the M’s in a great position to win this game. If he’s allowed to give up a bunch of runs now that’s on McLaren.
Atlanta — gets Teixeira; Red Sox — continually upgrades and reloads, Daisuke…(I think the Gagne trade will work out in the end); Oakland (though not in the race this year — Beane wrote the book on being a great GM); NY — well guess it helps having George S. as the owner but still gets the job done (A-Rod, Clemens, Abreu, etc.)
271–looks like Mac agrees with you. At this point, so do I, though I feel really funny writing that.
I never cease to marvel at Beltre’s gun. Man.
Let HoRam toss 120 pitches and get a CG! As long as the lead doesn’t get under 4.
He has only thrown 88 so far, that’s 2 16 pitch innings!
Anyone else watching MLB.tv?? What the hell was that early cut to the slide line lady?
Let HoRam give up 5 runs so nobody ever thinks he’ll pitch decently again.
As far as FOs are concerned, they all make mistakes. But the good moves (which may not always work out) will outnumber the bad ones.
As far as FOs are concerned, they all make mistakes. But the good moves (which may not always work out) will outnumber the bad ones.
Oh GEEZ. I saw that coming too.
Retarded.
So THATS why my coach always taught me to never go for the tag (as a 2B).
Well, that was a major league brain cramp by Lopez.
are they going to charge an error there?
276–I’ve never felt the Beltre signing was a bust, even though he hasn’t hit as well in the AL, because his defense is so outstanding. As this site keeps reminding us, defense wins games. We do need to be cautious in evaluating players who have only played in the NL in the future, however; the difference in quality between the leagues is pretty great these days.
keep it up Twins! show HoRam he’s been getting lucky.
That run’s on Lopez.
285- FC, there was no error.
Bye bye HoRam.
Seriously, Lopez what was the point of throwing to 1B?
NYY leading 1-0, top of first, one on, 2 out, Matsui up.
(I had to go get dinner fixin’s ready, so I’ve missed a few innings) I see that my wish in #217, for more runs, was granted.
Now, will it work if I wish for the Yankees and the Angels to annihilate each other these next few days?
And the camera zooms in on Jeter, who’s on the bench doing nothing. Is anyone else as sick of the media’s Jeter fetish as I am?
286- I would only want a few select NL players. Matt Holliday being one of them with a expiring contract coming up.
Not going to rosterbate though or get drilled by a Twin player, hopefully.
It’s funny. I had lunch with my father today, and he mentioned how hot Ibanez was. I told him about what Dave said about the data compiled in The Book and that projecting future success by looking at streakiness is shown to be hard-to-impossible.
Oh well. A player can still have a good game that just happens to follow a set of good games.
cmon green, give up a base hit to get final ER agaisnt HoRam.
This is a huge win. Yankees up on Angels too. We could be a few hours away from being within 1 game of the division lead. Plus we play the Angels in a few days.
Wow, I thought that was going to the outfield for sure. Saved a run.
Lopez just got one back!
Lopez saves one of the runs he almost cost the team. I guess you’re partially forgiven.
And it’s that same logic that justifies Sexson’s playing time. I don’t really consider it a positive behavior.
Looking at HoRam’s game logs, he’s pitched well enough to win in about half of his games . . .
The only way anyone could come to that conclusion is to look at wins. Here are the number of runs the M’s have scored in each Ramirez win:
14
7
2
7
4
4
13
The M’s are scoring just under 5 runs a game this season. They’re scoring 7.14 runs per game when Horacio pitches. That’s a huge swing, and it’s luck. His WHIP is nearing 2.00. Coming into this game, he had walked more guys than he had struck out. He’s really, really bad. He’s not by any stretch of the imagination pitching “well enough to win half his games.” He’s just been incredibly fortunate. And he still looks bad. That run support is an anomaly. Just because Soriano isn’t doing that well doesn’t mean that the trade wasn’t terrible.
On of my favorite lines from Dave Cameron:
If the Mariners traded Ichiro tomorrow for a can of Sprite, and next week Ichiro tore his hamstring while the can of Sprite turned out to be delicious, that wouldn’t make that trade any better.
The same applies here. It was a dumb trade.
That said, GO HO! Go M’s! I’ll take wins any way they comes. Even if it’s terrible offenses like Minnesota and Chicago hacking and getting themselves out.
291- Earlier in the year Lopez worked that play to perfection running the runner back far enough to toss to first and get the out, the Sexson tossed it to Yuni for the DP. The ball was hit to close to 2B for that on this play, should have gone 4-6-3.
Lopez almost redeems himself, slick play.
277 – I saw that too, she was calling someone a jerk, I didn’t quite catch the name…
I’ve seen it before on MLB.tv/Gameday Audio. I think that they pick up the audio/video feed prior to the editor that ensures that the commentator’s mics are off even if they forget to switch them off. So occasionally you get an unedited feed… That’s the wild-west beauty of the interweb…
damn, ho’s era was under 7 for a minute. I know we don’t use era to evaluate our pitchers here, but i just thought it was worth noting.
To the folks who were hoping HR would give up a few runs in the 8th, I think he already earned several more starts by Mac’s standards. I predict he will get up after the game and say “but for a couple of pitches, he was perfect”
It seems to me that using Green with such a big lead is a waste of a good reliever. This would be the time to trot RRS out there, IMHO.
302–love that snark.
Heh. Anyone else see that Audi commercial? Combining an awesome stunt driver handbreaking into a parking spot, while still mocking the auto-parallel-parking Lexus. Zing!
Pinch hit Jones here? Just for fun ’cause we’re up by five? Okay, alright then.
306–I’d like to see Sherrill here. He’s had a couple of bad games; this is a low-risk situation, which could allow him to regain some confidence. (Ooops, I just made an “intangibles” argument; hope this doesn’t get me banned!)
306 — i’d pair up Parish w/ HoRam for the rest of the year…either we’re up huge like this one or we’re down a bunch like the last one… at least then they’ll eat up some innings together.
Is McLaren completely oblivious to the score or how to use relievers in general?
What’s even scarier is that he’s likely “saving” Parrish for a high leverege situation tomorrow.
Sims just claimed the score was 9-5 fwiw.
lol @ Richie running.
I just switched to ESPN 2 to see what’s going on with the NYY-LAA game, and damn if they didn’t show Jeter (with A-Rod) doing nothing on the bench again!! It’s truly an obsession….
313- Hopefully he knows like we all do here at USSM that he couldn’t hold a 5 run lead and we would lose. He needs at least 8 runs.
Is it me or does it seem like McLaren has forgotten that his bench exists? It’s a blowout, yet Mac leaves his starters in.
It’s not that hard to cross a name off the scorecard and write another name in there MAC!
That Minnesota pitcher could walk on for Tweedledum or Tweedledee in any Lewis Carrol production on the planet.
Everyday Eddie pitched one inning, allowing 3 earned runs and raising his ERA from 21.00 to 22.50
312–I think watching games featuring HoRam and Parrish might be enough to make me swear off baseball forever….
wow, go away from the computer mid-game and apparently you miss all sorts of intellectual postings.
speaking of Lopez, do Bran Cramps not count as errors in Minnesota?
317 – I agree with the sentiment, but I’ll be fine with it as long as jones and broussard start tomorrow.
Ha Ha, I know, but he hints in an interview on Baker’s blog that they might get some starts over the next week because of the rough schedule.
I have given up on complaining about McLaren. At least a statistical anomaly can happen to Sexson and he hits a HR. I haven’t heard any studies, but I am thinking managers don’t go on hot or cold streaks.
I see Jones is finally in the game. And Mac ignored all our helpful suggestions and left Green in. At least he didn’t think he needed Putz in this situation; I guess we should all be grateful for that.
Niehaus’ play by play during that last at-bat: “and Reyes, the chunky left-hander, gets ready to deliver.” LOL, nice one Dave!
321- Bran Cramps! The newest cereal hitting stores and bowels near you!
#318– that is the fellow known to the readers of the beloved Batgirl as “Denys Sampler Reyes”
Yeah, a lot of managers have no feel for bullpen use. One thing you could say about Hargrove is that he had a good feel for bullpen usage (absent an infatuation for Mateo….)
Anybody know where HoRam ranks in run support? He’s got to be pretty high. M’s win!
I love (not!) how GameDay says “Defensive substitution: Adam Jones replaces left fielder Raul Ibanez, batting 4th, playing left field” — in the bottom of the 9th in a away game with the other team 5 runs down.
As if he’s going to have an at-bat…
Time to focus my attention on the Yankees game.
Best part about that last out… Jones was right there covering ground with him.
I guess that would be a Brain Cramp for me, too.
the picture on my tv spasmed earlier this evening, and since then the M’s look as though they are the Emerald City Mariners, clad all in green, with orange faces, playing on a pinkish field.
I’m guessing this set may have bit the dust.
BTW – Yankees up 1 – 0 in the 2nd
That “double” Matthews hit was just bizarre.
Ok, I know one way to root. I want Hughes to be lit up some, to put more pressure on him.
If you’re going to substitute for Ibanez defensively, why wait until the 9th rather than do it after 6 1/2 while leading by 7?
3-1 Angels
I want them to have a crazy series where they both score like 45 runs in 3 games so the bullpens just get decimated and every time we face one of their pitchers we get dead arms throwing ballons at us. And we can get run on sentences!
Because Mac is managing the team. I saw Ozzie remove his starters after the 5th 10 days ago when they were up big on the M’s.
Don’t care who wins the Yanks Halos series just hope it’s in a sweep.
Oh dear…whom to root against, Yanks or Angels…Angels or Yanks…why can’t they both just lose?
Actually, if the Angels win, we keep pace with them.
And there’s the added bonus of humiliating the Yankees…and their fans.
The Angels announcers are talking scared about us right now on MLB.tv!!
They are idiots so maybe its not a great thing, but good to hear still.
The Yankees have played a soft, soft 2nd half schedule. Now that they are playing a decent team, they will lose 2 of 3. I think as long as the M’s can stay the course, they will win the Wild Card. Look for the Yanks to cool off over the next 20 days.
I think the Yankees are a better team than the Angels. Plus, in the West, we don’t have to worry about Detroit and the rest of the AL contenders. It appears the division will be easier to win, so go Yankees!
Between the Yanks and Angels, had I to pick one of them to make the playoffs, it would be the Angels. I wouldn’t mind the M’s being the wild card team, and I wouldn’t mind them facing the Red Sox in the first round.
246- I was just about to post the exact opposite thing. I would rather take the division and hopefully play a home series depending on how the Central plays out.
345 – never “go yankees”.
Since when did Raul start spelling his name with two H’s and a G in the middle? I mean, how else are we supposed to account for his miraculous shoulder recovery and hot bat…
The color commentator on ESPN2 sucks.
Reach over and grab a foul ball, and that’s in the field of play?
350 – You mean Sutcliffe? The man’s insufferable.
is it still Extended Excessive Penalty Week?
344: Have you seen their roster? Have you noticed that Hughes is back, Giambi’s back, Abreu is hitting again? They have the most talented team in baseball! Their Pythagorean win-loss record is 76-48!
I’m rooting for a benches clearing brawl that injures no one (because I’m a caring loving nurturer), but gets all suspended for at least 5 games.
349-
You know, the USSM folks really hate that, whether it’s Barry or Raul being discussed. Just sayin’.
You’d think the Yankees were playing at home tonight. Damn Yankee fans.
I’m down here in LA watching the Angels broadcast, and they’re advertising their Rally Monkey hat promotion. They showed this whole stack of them. It is the stuff of nightmares.
holy crap– tvs are expensive, now.
Yankees are up 4-3 now after Arod’s 2-run homer. (Top 6th)
All we need to do is win and we pick up a game either way. Not exactly sure who I am rooting for though.
msb – you gotta stop looking at just the 60″ plasmas
Did anyone just listen to the ridiciulous rant on ESPN? “I wanted to hit him in the head – in the face if I could”
Wow.
Yeah, I can’t believe the guy said that. At first he said “I wanted to kill him. I mean, I really wanted to get him.
If you were wondering who to root for to win, why not apply statistical principal?
Each game taken back from the Angels improves our playoff changes by like 10%; each game taken from the Yankees only adds like 2 or 3%. So each game taken from the halo’s is worth more to a playoff run.
362 – Yeah, I don’t like the home run hitters hot dogging it, but I’m not crazy about people throwing 95 mph fastballs at someone’s head. This is the 40th year of Tony Conigliaro getting hit. Intentional or not, that was a pitch that should have changed the thinking about beaning at that time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Conigliaro
#361– well, I was thinking HDTV, as we’ll have to switch in a year or so, anyway, and then the plasmas were getting more love than the LCDs, but it may have to be LCD to get anything smaller than 40 inches… sheesh.
I just hauled out the set I bought from Mel & Ody almost 30 years ago, and hooked it up– I may make do with it, and an RF modulator for now…
Ah, the old Radiation King…
good times
Jeff friggin’ Cirillo just pitched a scoreless ninth for the D-Backs.
No, seriously
I can’t root for the Yankees, I just can’t. Yet I hate the Angels so much….*head explodes*
Yankees just coughed up the lead.
“That’s the one mistake he made tonight, and he made it three times.”
Whoever this color commentator is, he must be mentored by Joe Morgan.
I just can’t root for the Yankees. I’ll just hope the Angels start losing next week.
The ESPN commentators are having an orgasm about how well halos go first to third.
Watching this this Yankees game makes you appreciate the value of a great bullpen. Damn Yankees.
No, the commentator is just plain terrible all around. I’d prefer random- phrase-Dave-Simms or bumbling-Dave-Neihaus over him.
Joe Morgan is old school but he and Jon Miller are eminently listenable.
I think I’m slowly dieing from the inside because I’m acctually rooting for the Yankees. My Dad has been a Mariner fan for an incredibly long time, and he’s rooting for the Angels because in his words, “I’d rather have both us and the Yankees not make the playoffs then us and them make them. I just hate the Yankees. I can’t stand them.”
Posada just tied it with a HR with A-Rod on.
I hope this game lasts 18 innings and both teams burn their bullpens and it affects them for the next couple of weeks. Gosh, I love dreaming.
369: Exactly but… We’re just watching for the opportunity to see it go into many, many extra frames to bury both bullpens and wear everybody down. And I’d rather have any ESPNs over Fizz and Hud right now.
Mixed feelings about rooting for the Yankees -like watching my a##hole boss drive off a steep cliff in my new bimmer.
>>379
haha, just 18 innings? Might as well make them burn their starting pitching as well
But damn, that Yankees offense is scary as hell.
Maybe A-Rod will pitch. He said he’s always wanted to do that.
#378– boy, Georgie will sure enjoy being a free agent this winter
As much as I hate the Yankees, I’m not having a hard time rooting for them. If you’re a logical Mariner fan it makes sense to root for the Yankees.
..I never thought I’d find myself cheering for a Yankee HR.
Outside of New York. What is the market for 36 year old catchers? I sure wouldn’t want to pay a lot for that.
If the Mariners are in a laugher, should be bring in Jones to pitch? I mean, he’s gotta get his PT somehow, right?
Arod just layed an egg. He should have caught that.
I finally just decided I hate the NYY, I actually enjoy watching the Angels, so if we’re not there, I’d rather have them there, and most importantly, as long as we take care of business, it won’t matter.
Angels got robbed.
Maybe a really long game will screw them both up for the rest of the season..
Maybe a really long game will screw them both up for the rest of the season..
THREE long games might…
I don’t mind the Angels winning against NYY, because I’d rather have the M’s win the division and the Angels be the WC, that way we would avoid Boston (if they still have the #1 seed). Otherwise, we will end up playing NYY or BOS in the first round, if both make the playoffs. Personally, I don’t want to see BOS nor NYY in the first round. I think they should change the rule that says a division leader can’t play the WC team if they are in the same divisions, it was probably a MLB plan to ensure that NYY and BOS could meet in the ALCS thus better ratings.
I don’t mind the Angels winning against NYY, because I’d rather have the M’s win the division and the Angels be the WC, that way we would avoid Boston
We are less likely to win the division if the Angels win tonight.
This physically hurts.
Love seeing Rivera tormented….but…..*head melts*
Teams can start worrying about who they play in the first round of the playoffs once they secure that spot… M’s are not in any position to be worrying about that, all they should be carying about right now is about making the playoffs anyway they can.
Darren Oliver? Oh, if the Yankees can’t beat him…
Damnit.
Oh well.
rats (woo-hoo?)
adam jones would have had that.
Hey did you guys hear? We just picked up a half game on the Yankees! Woo!!
But seriously…one reason I doubt we can stay ahead of the Yanks is that they finish their season with 13 games against Tampa Bay, Toronto and Baltimore. They are very likely to pick up two or three games on us during that stretch. I really wish they’d beaten the Angels tonight.
It’s a positive either way. As crazy as it sounds, in a perfect scenario, I think I’d have the M’s sweep Minnesota, and the Angels sweep the Yankees. We’d end up being two back of the Angels still and 3.5 ahead of the Yankees.
I like those odds better than being virtually tied with both teams had the Yankees swept.
402 – Well, wouldn’t that be more reason to root for them to lose now? We need them to lose to good teams since we can assume they will beat the bad ones.
I don’t know if ARod wants to pitch, but former Seattle 3rd basemen apparently are doing it. Pitching line from tonight’s Brewers-Diamondbacks game:
J Cirillo 1.0 IP 0H 0ER 2BB 1SO
That inning he pitched? The 9th. Sure, it was a blowout loss and he was just saving the bullpen, but…
How would you like to be the guy who struck out against Cirillo?
When does UUSM admit to being wrong about Raul?????
but the Yankees sweeping the Angels would have been more positive.
and as for Yankees’ schedule, I agree, they have a much easier schedule in the last 2 weeks, but they also have one of the hardest schedules possible in the next 10 or so days. (Angles x 2/ Detroit x 4/ Boston x 3) In regards to the wild-card race, the Ms really need to extend their lead to 3-4 games by then to have a good chance.
When does panman start reading?
The only way Dave, or anyone else for that matter, is wrong about Ibanez is if they stated in some manner that Raul could not get on a hot streak of any kind.
I don’t remember reading Dave say that Ibanez couldn’t stay hot, either.
Just that streaks are streaks and all players, even the best of all-time, regress to the means.
It’s also better to win the division to get the extra home game. That way I can continue my streak of being present at every series clinching playoff game the M’s have won.
The question I have about Raul (sorry if this has been asked) is what is the mean we can expect him to regress to? Assuming his health played a factor in his subpar first four months of the season.
That is the most important question in the Raul v. Jones debate.
Why? Did Raul get a pair of leg transplants to increase his range in the field?
panman –
Go ahead and read some of the other threads. Dave admitted being wrong that Raul’s career was over.
Additionally, you won’t get very far around here taking a week and a half of good Raul Ibanez at bats and asserting that USSM was wrong for looking at several months of awful Raul Ibanez at bats and concluding his career might be over.
405 I just saw the highlights to the Diamondbacks game. He had some nice movement on those pitches. I think the M’s should trade Parrish for Cirillo.
That is the most important question in the Raul v. Jones debate.
No, it’s not, because the primary objective in playing Jones was to keep Raul from hurting the team in the field, not at the plate. As Dave said, you can DH him with Jones in the field, particularly when there’s a flyball pitcher on the mound (and in parks with large left fields, like Safeco). And even if Raul “regresses” to be as good at the plate as he was last year, he still shouldn’t be batting against lefties (’06: .308/.375/.955 vs RHP, .243/.301/.663 vs LHP) . I realize there subtleties here, but can we at least try to keep the terms of the “debate” straight?
405 (joser) – A-Rod played a grand total of 0 games at third base for the Mariners. I don’t think that qualifies him as a former Seattle third baseman.
No, it’s not, because the primary objective in playing Jones was to keep Raul from hurting the team in the field, not at the plate. As Dave said, you can DH him with Jones in the field, particularly when there’s a flyball pitcher on the mound (and in parks with large left fields, like Safeco). And even if Raul “regresses” to be as good at the plate as he was last year, he still shouldn’t be batting against lefties (’06: .308/.375/.955 vs RHP, .243/.301/.663 vs LHP) . I realize there subtleties here, but can we at least try to keep the terms of the “debate” straight?
You can’t just look at Jones’ potential as a defensive upgrade in weighing whether or not he would improve the team by playing every day. Since either Ibanez’s or Vidro’s bat would be out of the lineup each day as a result he’d also have to produce hitting numbers at least somewhat close to theirs in order to justify the defensive upgrade.
The bottom line is that Vidro’s and Ibanez’s 2007 wOBA statistics are now – after 122 games, 420+ at bats each, and factoring in all the hot and cold streaks – pretty damn close to their career averages. So that means that Jones would have to produce at an above average major league hitting level to maintain their hitting productivity.
Would he be able to do that? Maybe, but no one knows for sure. But if he wasn’t able to maintain similar offensive productivity then any improvement he brings to the team as a defensive upgrade is wiped out.
But if he wasn’t able to maintain similar offensive productivity then any improvement he brings to the team as a defensive upgrade is wiped out.
This is, of course, totally wrong. If a player is +10 offensively and -20 defensively, then he’s a -10 player. You do not have to replace him with a +10 offensive player in order for the defensive difference to be real.
-5 offense/+10 defense > +10 offense/-20 defense.
Really.
After seeing Jones play defense, I doubt he’s an above average defender at the moment. He’s better than Raul, but he is not in the league of Randy Winn right now.
That still leaves SUBSTANTIAL improvement, however.
It’s not evident to the casual fan (and certainly not to the Ms management) that Winn was a super defender in left. Jones can still be above average and not be Winn’s equal RIGHT NOW (and, of course, even average would be a substantial improvement…)
Maybe Randy Winn was a bad comp. But not only has Jones dropped a few fly balls, doesn’t seem to be getting a good first step. He has the speed to make up for this but it narrows the gap with Ibanez. Jones should be playing to give his teammates a day off here and there, but I can understand not wanting to watch Jones flail away at the plate with only a marginal improvement to the defense in the middle of a pennett race. Of course, the lightbulb could go on for Jones at anytime.
[deleted, namecalling]
There is no meaningful sample size yet about Jones’s ability to play defense at the major league level.
There’s tons of evidence of him being a very good defender in AAA.
No need for name calling dude.
The “Adam Jones is a terrible defender” thing is getting really old and has no merit. He is a -much- better defender than Ibanez, there is no debate about that, and it’s really annoying when ignorant people come here and repeatedly try to make that argument based off of one error and one great play that turned into a drop. There is no other way to describe that kind of thinking other than idiotic, sorry.
As frustrating as it is to see the bad arguments trotted out here over and over again, let’s try to keep it civil, guys.
But seriously, there is no reason to be so skeptical of Adam Jones’s defense based on a couple of bad plays that could easily be chalked up to nerves or just random bad luck.
He is a plus defender all by himself, and a plus plus defender when compared to Ibanez.
Free Adam Jones.
Has anyone seen my dead horse? I’d like to burry it now.
405 –
Jeff Cirillo 1K in 1 IP
HoRam 1K in 7.1 IP
Just a point – nerves is a great reason to consider someone a bad defender. The Rich Ankiel story should illustrate that perfectly. or Chuck Knoblauch, or Steve Sax. Arguably, errors due to nerves are more troubling that errors due to lack of ability.
So you’re really willing to dismiss all of the prior evidence of his fielding ability because he was possibly nervous on one or two plays? Seriously?
Yes, I’d call that arguable. Let me argue:
1. You’re naming three players whose nerves negatively and consistently affected their playing abilities. (Psst: you forgot Mackey Sasser!) You’re then extrapolating this wealth of evidence and creating a general hypothesis.
2. There’s speculation that Rich Ankiel’s pitching career didn’t end because of nerves, but because of a physical injury. Rob Neyer wrote about it last week.
3. There’s no evidence that nerves (again, excepting your long list of examples) are harder to fix than limited physical ability. My intuition tells me the opposite, but I don’t even need to use intuition.
4. Nerves are difficult to quantify, and therefore easy for you to associate with anyone you’d like when it serves the purpose of your argument.
Dave, with regard to people’s indifference to the difference between Adam Jones’ fielding and Raúl’s, I wonder if maybe those of us who are sabermetrically minded might not be the victims of past success. Seems to me I remember, 20+ years ago, Whitey Herzog (or someone in the Cards organization, but I think it was Whitey) declaring that Ozzie Smith saved 30 runs a year with his glove, and Bill James pooh-poohing that. More recent work has come along to say that yes, Ozzie did, and that pitching is much more about the fielders than we realized; but that was after a couple decades in which fielding metrics lagged behind the rest, while analytical advances shifted the attention somewhat to hitting and pitching. Maybe I’m misreading things, but it just seems to me that 25 years ago, the case that it’s worth swapping Adam for Raúl because of his glove would have been easier to sell than it is today.
431
What do you mean speculation?
It’s been known for a while that injury was at least partially responsible for Ankiel’s meltdown, and certainly responsible for ending his career.
“3. There’s no evidence that nerves (again, excepting your long list of examples) are harder to fix than limited physical ability. ”
Yeah, you just have to imagine the crowd in their underwear and the nerves disappear.
433: I decided to understate the point rather than overstate it, so as not to allow a digression on the cause of Ankiel’s earlier woes.
Either way, the point is: please don’t use the career of a single starting pitcher to not-so-subtly imply that a certain outfielder could play poor defense. They really, really aren’t related.
I haven’t seen nearly enough of Adam Jones to make a judgment about his fielding ability so I’ll take the word of those who’ve seen him play regularly in Tacoma that he’s developed into a good defender. Obviously, though, dropping catchable fly balls isn’t going to help your cause if you’re a rookie trying to break into the lineup during a pennant run.
And I was living in St. Louis when Rick Ankiel had his famous meltdown and it was hard to watch. Trust me, Ankiel’s problems weren’t physical. His story has nothing to do with a couple of OF drops by Adam Jones, though.
Jeff Cirillo 1K in 1 IP
HoRam 1K in 7.1 IP
Jeff Cirillo 2BB in 1 IP
HoRam 0BB in 7.1 IP
Anyway, Ks are overrated. HoRam had 16 GB outs (IIRC). According to Fangraphs, on balls in play he had 7 FB, 20 GB, and 3 LD (a 2.85 GB/FB ratio). If he could do that routinely, particularly against Teams That Matter, he’d be an ace. Top five (qualified) pitchers in baseball by GB/FB:
Derek Lowe…………… 3.47
Tim Hudson…………… 3.13
Fausto Carmona… 3.05
Felix Hernandez… 2.82
Brandon Webb………… 2.80
(And that, incidentally, is also the answer to the question “Why should you never play Vidro at 2nd behind Felix?”)
No, he wouldn’t be an ace, but if he could post that kind of G/F ratio every start, as long as he didn’t walk anybody, he’d be usable.
That said, Ks aren’t overrated; they’re the one kind of out that (excepting the occasional dropped third strike) aren’t subject to the vagaries of chance and the limitations of your fielders. The more Ks, the fewer balls in play; the fewer balls in play, the fewer hits; the fewer hits, the fewer runs. The more Ks, the greater your margin of error; the fewer Ks, the more you have to do everything else right in order to succeed.
437 Joser, I think those of us that are comparing Cirillo’s pitching performance to Horacio’s are doing it as a joke. Thanks for the GB analysis though.
437:
Looking at the stats, you’ll notice that the guys you listed there also strike out the occasional batter.
HoRam could be the first pitcher to post an ERA greater than 7 and still win 10 games since Colby Lewis of the Indians, did it in 2003. Now that is an accomplishment that you put front page of the Mariner Magazine.
Yeah, I know. I originally posted it as a joke (which was why I wasn’t too precise with the whole “former Mariners who play as 3Bs wrt Arod).
Anyway, what I meant by over-rated was that Ks get disproportionate attention. They’re the sexy stat, just like HRs are for hitters. But there’s more than one way to get an out. Groundballs in play do not frequently result in runs; if they do, then you need to upgrade your infield. And Ks are often the most expensive way to get an out in terms of pitchcount. You can get 3 outs in 3 pitches with groundballs with little chance of giving up a run. You can’t get 3 Ks with 3 pitches. Now, if you don’t trust your infield defense then yeah, you definitely want to see Ks. And if you’ve got a good bullpen and you’re not worried about a long roadtrip with no rest days, that pitchcount certainly is nothing to worry about. But if not, a guy who can get through a lot of innings without giving up a lot of flyballs is a very valuable addition to your rotation.
The reason Felix is so highly regarded, of course, is that he’s both a high-K pitcher and a groundball guy.
Looking at the stats, you’ll notice that the guys you listed there also strike out the occasional batter.
So does HoRam. Just ask Nick Punto
Like I said, if he could do that routinely against teams with actual, detectable offenses, he’d be a valuable guy. But he can’t, and he won’t; nevertheless, a W is a W and if they can get something similar from him against say Oakland and Tampa, well… those Ws would count too. But his next start is going to be in Texas, and I don’t have a lot of faith in him there or when he’s facing NY, LAA, or DET either.
Honestly, sometimes I feel like this team is Wile E Coyote running across the canyon on a cloud of Anaheim Roadrunner dust, and they’ll keep gaining just as long as nobody looks down…
442-
HoRam is well under 4 K’s per game this year in the AL. You won’t find many MLB pitchers who can live like that for very long- and the ones that do don’t have BB = or > K like HoRam.
Even Bill “Spaceman” Lee, who was probably a good archetype for this (no stuff at all, ground balls) had career numbers of 2.5 BB/3.3 K. Horacio is at 3.5/4.19… but Lee pitched more innings in a league with the DH and in leagues where K numbers were a skosh lower. And Lee’s also one of the few guys who had any decent career doing this.
The bottom line is if you want to live on groundballs and can’t strike guys out because your stuff won’t break a pane of glass, you can’t walk people. Period. HoRam has lousy command of the zone, and that’s why he’s a poor candidate for future success. If he stops walking guys, period, and gets lots of GBs, he MIGHT have a shot, but it’s a marginal one at best.