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	<title>Comments on: 2007 Fans Scouting Report</title>
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	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227941</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 21:59:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227941</guid>
		<description>I haven&#039;t asked yet.  Probably next week.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I haven&#8217;t asked yet.  Probably next week.</p>
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		<title>By: marc w</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227930</link>
		<dc:creator>marc w</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 21:25:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227930</guid>
		<description>Ah, gotcha.   

Yes, his accuracy did take a hit - it&#039;s tough to miss all those errors.  But it&#039;s his acceleration score (best proxy for what&#039;s gen. called &#039;range&#039;?) that I thought might drop a bit more.   We&#039;ll see, I guess!

Has MLB told you that you&#039;re go to get a plug from mlb.com?   That&#039;ll be fascinating.   My guess would be Betancourt scores a bit better from those voters...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ah, gotcha.   </p>
<p>Yes, his accuracy did take a hit &#8211; it&#8217;s tough to miss all those errors.  But it&#8217;s his acceleration score (best proxy for what&#8217;s gen. called &#8216;range&#8217;?) that I thought might drop a bit more.   We&#8217;ll see, I guess!</p>
<p>Has MLB told you that you&#8217;re go to get a plug from mlb.com?   That&#8217;ll be fascinating.   My guess would be Betancourt scores a bit better from those voters&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227919</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 20:50:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227919</guid>
		<description>Note that I corrected Ellison in post 26.

As for YuBet, his fall from grace was in two categories: a bit in footwork/release and a ton in accuracy.

In 2005, he was stellar across the board:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_SEA.html
And in 2006, that was repeated:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_SEA.html
Though his accuracy dropped the most (11 &quot;points&quot;), though it was still at a high level.

As of right now, his accuracy is well below-average.  His footwork/release is right around average.

It&#039;s possible that he just got lazy this year.  But, you guys would know alot more about it than me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Note that I corrected Ellison in post 26.</p>
<p>As for YuBet, his fall from grace was in two categories: a bit in footwork/release and a ton in accuracy.</p>
<p>In 2005, he was stellar across the board:<br />
<a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_SEA.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_SEA.html</a><br />
And in 2006, that was repeated:<br />
<a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_SEA.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_SEA.html</a><br />
Though his accuracy dropped the most (11 &#8220;points&#8221;), though it was still at a high level.</p>
<p>As of right now, his accuracy is well below-average.  His footwork/release is right around average.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s possible that he just got lazy this year.  But, you guys would know alot more about it than me.</p>
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		<title>By: marc w</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227909</link>
		<dc:creator>marc w</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 20:03:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227909</guid>
		<description>Tango - what can we conclude happened to YuBet?   I mean, I think scouting reports never matched the on-field performance, and then finally, the scouting reports &#039;fell&#039; back in line with actual performance.
Actually, I think there&#039;s a bit of both - his range looks notably worse now than it did in say 2005, but I think we may have been fooled by something back then (when he was rated 90 or whatever).  It wasn&#039;t just us, of course, but I want to know why that happened.

Also, I&#039;m wondering if a player&#039;s usage as a &#039;defensive replacement&#039; drives some of the numbers.   Ellison has never received &#039;above average&#039; rankings in the corners from the PBP metrics.   Again, sample size and uncertainty mean your numbers are probably &#039;better&#039;, but I wonder how getting the tag of &#039;defensive replacement&#039; influences people&#039;s opinions/evaluations.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tango &#8211; what can we conclude happened to YuBet?   I mean, I think scouting reports never matched the on-field performance, and then finally, the scouting reports &#8216;fell&#8217; back in line with actual performance.<br />
Actually, I think there&#8217;s a bit of both &#8211; his range looks notably worse now than it did in say 2005, but I think we may have been fooled by something back then (when he was rated 90 or whatever).  It wasn&#8217;t just us, of course, but I want to know why that happened.</p>
<p>Also, I&#8217;m wondering if a player&#8217;s usage as a &#8216;defensive replacement&#8217; drives some of the numbers.   Ellison has never received &#8216;above average&#8217; rankings in the corners from the PBP metrics.   Again, sample size and uncertainty mean your numbers are probably &#8216;better&#8217;, but I wonder how getting the tag of &#8216;defensive replacement&#8217; influences people&#8217;s opinions/evaluations.</p>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227880</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 18:10:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227880</guid>
		<description>Oops... serves me right for doing prelim analysis without better quality check.

Ellison is average, Burke is way low, and Broussard is challenging the other two.

(Tech note: I had my &quot;header&quot; record in the original counts, where &quot;1 to 7&quot; was for Yubet, &quot;8 to 15&quot; was for Ichiro... by the time you get to Ellison, he got numbers over 100, which severely inflated his numbers.  This would not have happened had I went through my normal process through a database.  This was purely an Excel issue.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops&#8230; serves me right for doing prelim analysis without better quality check.</p>
<p>Ellison is average, Burke is way low, and Broussard is challenging the other two.</p>
<p>(Tech note: I had my &#8220;header&#8221; record in the original counts, where &#8220;1 to 7&#8243; was for Yubet, &#8220;8 to 15&#8243; was for Ichiro&#8230; by the time you get to Ellison, he got numbers over 100, which severely inflated his numbers.  This would not have happened had I went through my normal process through a database.  This was purely an Excel issue.)</p>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227873</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 17:59:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227873</guid>
		<description>You guys have already shattered the previous record (that you held) for most submissions.  At 300 and counting.  Even a no-name (to the rest of us) like Jason Ellison received 78 submissions, which is more than most players on any other team.

Anyway, prelim results (subject to change) are that Ichiro/Beltre are still considered elite, while YuBet took a tumble to a slightly above-average for a SS.  Ellison is considered an above-average fielder for CF, and way-above at the corners.  Sexson/Ibanez are easily the two worst fielders on the team.  Except for Broussard, everyone else is average to a nick above.  

Look for the full report right after the season concludes.

The YuBet example is exactly why these reports are important.  PBP metrics will show numbers all over the place year-to-year, and, because of their small sample, will NOT imply any kind of directionality (the uncertainty range around those numbers makes it that you can&#039;t tell if someone is on a trend or not).  However, *your* numbers don&#039;t have that problem.  Your uncertainty level around his evaluation is far lower, and therefore, if we see him going from an &quot;82&quot; to a &quot;66&quot; (or whatever the final numbers will be... 50 is average for a fielder and 60 is average for a SS), then we *can* conclude that something drastic did happen to him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You guys have already shattered the previous record (that you held) for most submissions.  At 300 and counting.  Even a no-name (to the rest of us) like Jason Ellison received 78 submissions, which is more than most players on any other team.</p>
<p>Anyway, prelim results (subject to change) are that Ichiro/Beltre are still considered elite, while YuBet took a tumble to a slightly above-average for a SS.  Ellison is considered an above-average fielder for CF, and way-above at the corners.  Sexson/Ibanez are easily the two worst fielders on the team.  Except for Broussard, everyone else is average to a nick above.  </p>
<p>Look for the full report right after the season concludes.</p>
<p>The YuBet example is exactly why these reports are important.  PBP metrics will show numbers all over the place year-to-year, and, because of their small sample, will NOT imply any kind of directionality (the uncertainty range around those numbers makes it that you can&#8217;t tell if someone is on a trend or not).  However, *your* numbers don&#8217;t have that problem.  Your uncertainty level around his evaluation is far lower, and therefore, if we see him going from an &#8220;82&#8243; to a &#8220;66&#8243; (or whatever the final numbers will be&#8230; 50 is average for a fielder and 60 is average for a SS), then we *can* conclude that something drastic did happen to him.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227868</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 17:12:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227868</guid>
		<description>I asked Dave about the player in question, and he corrected me in my view of his view (i.e., I remembered wrong).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I asked Dave about the player in question, and he corrected me in my view of his view (i.e., I remembered wrong).</p>
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		<title>By: nwtrev</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227562</link>
		<dc:creator>nwtrev</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 03:05:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227562</guid>
		<description>If anyone is interested here are the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scout2006_winners.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;results for 2006&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If anyone is interested here are the <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scout2006_winners.html" rel="nofollow">results for 2006</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Evan</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227557</link>
		<dc:creator>Evan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 02:03:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227557</guid>
		<description>I like that we&#039;re permitted to evaluate players on any team, because we often see a lot of players on division rivals, or local teams on TV if we&#039;re not in Seattle.  It gives me an opportunity to tell people what a great arm Alexis Rios has.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like that we&#8217;re permitted to evaluate players on any team, because we often see a lot of players on division rivals, or local teams on TV if we&#8217;re not in Seattle.  It gives me an opportunity to tell people what a great arm Alexis Rios has.</p>
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		<title>By: Tropics iRE</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/comment-page-1/#comment-227555</link>
		<dc:creator>Tropics iRE</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 02:01:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/23/2007-fans-scouting-report/#comment-227555</guid>
		<description>... if you cant hit your target (first baseman/teammates glove) you dont belong in the game!!!  ...i hope you can hear me YUNI!¿!¿</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230; if you cant hit your target (first baseman/teammates glove) you dont belong in the game!!!  &#8230;i hope you can hear me YUNI!¿!¿</p>
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