Game 125, Mariners at Rangers
Weaver vs Loe, 5:35 pm.
Thanks to a brutal travel schedule that has the M’s playing 44 games in 45 days, which began last weekend with the White Sox series and has already included three games on the notoriously tough Metrodome turf and a couple of flights as the M’s head into the sweltering heat of Texas in August, John McLaren mentioned that this road trip would be a good time to use his bench to keep everyone fresh. Which explains tonight’s line-up. Wait, that’s the standard line-up? Oh.
Moving on to a topic that doesn’t make me want to run a cheese grinder across my forehead, the Mariners face Kameron Loe tonight. For my money, Loe is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. Over the last three years, he’s established himself as a heavy groundball guy who throws enough strikes and misses enough bats to be effective. However, he’s played in front of some lousy defenses in a park that isn’t exactly friendly to contact pitchers, so people haven’t caught on yet, but he’s got a similar skillset to Jake Westbrook, and I wouldn’t be surprised if things started clicking for him sooner rather than later.
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Was there a reason for the 5:35 start time as oppossed to 5:05? Heat in Texas?
so they could sleep in a half hour after the double header?
Mac’s approach is simple: when the wheels fall off, it’s time to check the tires for air.
I’m hoping that the Rangers’ arms are just worn out from swinging so much yesterday. Of course, they could instead be pumped up to the eyeballs after that doubleheader, but I’m hoping for pooped. All I can say is, thank god yesterday was the Orioles and not the M’s.
I guess scoring 39 runs in one day would make you extra sleepy.
Kameron also epitomises the descriptive phrase “lantern-jawed”.
The Rangers apparently got to bed in Arlington around 6am. When they reported in this afternoon, Laird announced he had ‘flu-like symptoms’. Veteran catcher move, there.
I really feel that Raul Ibanez has good karma.
What a great inning there. >_>
I can tell you now which team looks as though they got no sleep last night, and the Rangers haven’t batted yet.
I really feel that Raul Ibanez has good karma.
As long as he keeps his pants on that’s between him and his wife. Meanwhile, Loe is starting off making Dave look smart again — 3 up, 3 easy ground outs. Apparently he got a nap on the plane.
Love Vidro swinging at the very first pitch, way to work the count there bub.
I was going to pick up Weaver as a one night starter on my fantasy team tonight but I just couldn’t do it.
Anyone–Will McLaren’s philosophy of not really being pitch count guy have a an undesirable effect on the starters after a few outings of pitching deeper?
Remember Dave wrote something to the effect Washburn is an eighty or there abouts pitcher. Coming back after longer outings, McLaren appears fine with, could all the starters get over used? Therefore less effective?
Weaver looks tired already.
I guess he is better than Kirk Saarloos. In a way.
speaking of the line-up, Mac thinks that since Ichiro! got three innings off yesterday, he may have already had his official ‘Texas day off’.
These announcers have convinced me, I’m going to cancel the order for Mariners BP jersey.
heh, Dave N going on about how a fould ball wasn’t a strike prior to 1990. Yes, 1990, not 1890, or roughly when he was born. I guess Blowers is just too nice to correct him on air.
Weaver definitely looks stoned in that FSN player card photo. I’d demand a retake.
Sorry, that should have been “foul’d” ball – the Victorian pronunciation.
19 – that was the 23rd take. They all came out the same.
#19
Weaver is putting the Grunge back in Seattle.
Why didn’t Weaver ever get his buzz cut?
23 – He did…
24 – Good point.
Too bad we got the David Wells look alike and not the real deal.
Speaking of which, ESPN is reporting Wells and the Dodgers have a tentative agreement and is expected to start Sunday against the Mets.
#20– see, I thought it was the Middle English … bringe me that fould ball
Well the best thing to do is drop the d altogether. Just call it a foul ball.
Why do the M’s and Angels insist on arranging their rotations to prevent a weaver vs weaver matchup? Lame.
Probably because they don’t want to hear a month’s worth of media analysis of the psychodrama aspects of such a game any more than I do.
29 – you got that right.
Hopefully Richie continues his progression towards the mean.
Flirting with Mendoza all summer seems to have taught Richie something about the joys of plate discipline.
“And he got it but didn’t swing”
That’s because he’s bad.
wtf was richie looking for?
Now that I think about it, he was probably looking for a pitch inside he could swing and miss at.
Not only was I wrong, I was incredibly wrong as Mel Brooks would say.
wow Ritchie, just . . .wow.
I know on MVP Baseball 2005 I sit on fastball on a 3-1 count.
I think Richie is officially Not Hot.
and Kenji has now been cursed, what with Dave N announcing he ‘owns’ Loe.
Yikes that was an ugly AB for Sexon
#38
Kenji has talismans that he hangs around his neck to ward off such curses.
Anyone noticed the A’s feeble attempt to get back in the playoff race lately? Of course I said the same thing about the Yankees a month ago and now I’m still trying to remove my foot from my mouth.
Lets see… Kenji GIDP?
I love being wrong!!
Kenji!
Why would you think he’d GIDP? He’s 5/6 against this guy now!
yay! hard-baked Texas infield!
Damn a ground ball…yeah a ground ball single!
Was Michael Young ever good enough to make that play?
ah! here is the GIDP.
Leave it to Lopez, its usually one of the 2, kenji or lopez
And not just the plain old second to first GIDP either!
I can see why Guillen got after Lopez’s base running. Could he at least look like he’s making an effort to run that out? He certainly had more time.
41 – 11 games out in the division with two teams to get past, plus 9 games back in the WC with three teams to get past (plus two more they’re tied with) with 43 games to go is a bit harder than 10 games out with 11 weeks to go.
hmm. Bott seems to have borrowed both Giles brother’s chins.
Yeah I was gonna say Kenji hits into a lot of double plays but everytime I say something like that on this site somebody comes up with a bunch of statistics that prove me wrong.
Dave – I agree. Loe looks like he has pretty good stuff. M’s dinked and dunked there way to that run (but I’ll take it!).
50 When did this happen?
Walking a guy you had 0-2 in the second inning sounds a faint alarm bell.
I wish Weaver would stop showing his frustration and just focus.
Rizzs must have really put a lot of time into getting Salty’s name right. He has said it about 50 times already.
What are the odds on another CG SO from Weaver?
Loe is *so* underrated that Niehaus was saying his future is in the bullpen. He must have got that from some Rangers source, I guess, which would explain why the Rangers have been as crap as the Mariners at evaluating pitching talent (and even worse at acquiring any).
58 – Saltalamacchia certainly bought himself enough vowels.
Let’s hope Betancourt, and Ichiro can set the table for Vidro. Just love watching Vidro hit with runners on base.
he did say ’some say his future’ …
#55– here is one mention
53: Kenji does ground into a lot of double plays.
#61– who was it said Salty’s nickname in the minors was ‘Pits’, for the way his name traveled from armpit to armpit?
#64
Well based strictly on my unscientific casual observations of Mariners baseball it seems I can remember Kenji grounding into a lot of double plays. But of course I thought Mike Cameron struck out a lot with the bases loaded that last year he played for us and someone pulled up a bunch of statistics that showed Cameron was a good hitter with runners in scoring position.
Yeah, Johjima leads the team in GIDP with 19. Turbo’s second, then Beltre.
Ichiro just moved into a tie for 524th place on the all time hit list.
there’s that Ichiro!, trying to be selfish again.
Your unscientific observations about Kenji are correct. He’s slow and almost always hits grounders to the left side which is prime territory for the DP. We were lucky he found a hole that time.
That was a nice play
I’d like to know what the opposing players and Ichiro are talking about when he’s on base being that he supposedly needs a translator.
72:
He speaks English. He just uses a translator with the media.
Hmmm… I guess Arlington isn’t all bad
73 I know, that’s why I said he “supposedly” needs a translator.
I was going to ask rhetorically if anyone actually watched the Best Damn Sports Show, but, after that … tasteful … ad for the Hooters girls maybe I won’t.
72 – Japanese is the official baseball language whenever Ichiro! is on base.
Meche, Pineiro, and Mariano Rivera are all tied for 993rd place all time in wins.
Putz should get some work tonight regardless of the score, right?
He speaks English. He just uses a translator with the media
Yeah, him and George Bush.
didn’t we have a discussion once about picking up Catalanotto?
id take meche or peneiro for our number 5 guy right now
Alarm bells getting louder….
Off the Starbucks sign.
Kameron Loe is like a lesser Chien-Ming Wang.
someone forgot to tell Jeff that Wilkerson was the Ranger’s big home run threat.
Hooray for Brad Wilkerson, the poor man’s Richie Sexson.
Richie Sexson is the poor man’s Richie Sexson these days.
Richie Sexson isn’t the poor man’s anything at 15 million. >_>
i don’t know if you can call someone costing us 16 million dollars the poor man’s anything.
I like Loe’s GB%, but his K/9 is, like, 4.5. 3.7 last year, 4.4 the year before that. With BB/9 in the 2.5 – 3.5 range, that qualifies as ‘missing bats’?
At 15 million Richie Sexson is Ryan Leaf’s offseason hunting and fishing partner.
Richie was a “strike-out victim” about the same way Hitler was a “homicide victim”.
I’m relieved to know Ron Washington thinks Sexson can turn it around.
We’re utterly cluless at the plate against a guy several other teams haven’t had issues with.
Except, unlike Der Departed Fuhrer, Richie gets to do it again and again.
Loe’s certainly good at missing Richie’s bat. Not that that’s hard
Thank god Broussard is playing today to keep Richie from getting worn out by the Texas heat. I hear the weather there is also quite warm. Ba-dump-dump.
I think it is safe to say that Richie’s “hot streak” is over, and has been this WHOLE SEASON!
Dammit Richie. Loe’s already surpassed his average per-start K total.
#99
Richie still has plenty of time and room to begin progressing towards the mean.
It’s pretty sad if it takes a HOT STREAK ™ to get your batting average up to .210
Weaver’s on a good pace to hold them under 30.
Ah, Ichiro! makes it look so graceful.
Style points for Ichiro!
10% of the way there…
Mmmm…. Salty.
101: I’d say he’s been progressing towards it all year.
Uh… at least that was a solo shot?
I’d love a consistently average to decent pitcher.
I haven’t heard anything on Contreras… has anyone picked him up?
That’s hilarious. Getting a save in a 27-run win.
101 – ever think that this is the mean for Richie? He’s spent much of the season under .200, and he finally tore off a “hot streak” where he hit about .270 for a week. He hasn’t shown any signs of being a better player than he has been all season.
The 27 run save will be a trivia question for the next hundred years. Maybe longer.
Lopez is really a hack up there, it is painful to watch.
YUNI
THRILLING segment on Rangers TV.
Ichi is “due” for a bomb. I’ll take a single though.
#111
Yeah it is possible. I was being semi-sarcastic.
Hey Rangers Fan, here’s a bag full of autographs from a Houston Astro, A Houston Astro, a Los Angeles Dodger, and a hat signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Makes perfect sense.
what happened to yuni? gameday skipped him completely
Yeah, I’m sure Adam Jones is learning more sitting on the bench watching veterans while collecting splinters in his ass than he would being in the lineup.
I don’t know if anyone’s ever noticed this but Ichiro’s pretty fast.
118: Chunked a double by the 3rd baseman.
Ichiro passed Roy Thomas and has sole possession of 524th place on the all time hit list.
Turbo, not so fast
Seems to me the Rangers are on their way to being this year’s Oakland Athletics as far as the Mariners are concerned. Another 31 innings in Texas like we’ve seen tonight and the Angels series will get a lot less interesting.
dammit.
I’m going to go make brownies.
Dave Simms: Vidro doesn’t run nearly as well as Ichiro.
In further news, raw sewage doesn’t taste nearly as well as filet mignon.
Our team average w/RISP has taken a huge dive in recent weeks it seems.
I never really thought Richie was on any kind of hot streak…maybe lukewarm, but definitely not hot.
Maybe the USSM crowd can chip in and buy Adam Jones a Nintendo DS?
Even the most powerful brownies can’t help this extermely dull game.
129: Excellent idea.
Looks to me like this might be the night where the Mariners as a collective unit begin their progression to the mean and out of the playoff race.
or I mean regression to the mean
So what’s with the broken bat epidemic the announcers keep going on about — global warming?
They don’t grow as good of wood as they used to.
To answer the guy who asked why the 7:35 p.m. start…
The Rangers decided this year to start night games a half-hour later while school is out.
The feeling was that it would be cooler, and would make it easier for people to make it to the park without fighting rush-hour traffic (since Arlington is a suburb about halfway between Fort Worth and Dallas, it is a bit of a drive for most folks).
The Mariners win probability is 15% right now. This is dull.
Cheap wood. Bats should be made out of mahogany.
They don’t grow as good of wood as they used to
Lot of that going around I understand.
I continue to like this Guillen guy.
wooo JOSE
Crushed! Keep leaving them hanging Mr. Loe.
And then raul comes up and ends it!
I love Guillen. The guy’s a warrior. The M’s needed some toughness.
Here’s Richie — guy gets more whacks than somebody in a leather hockey mask.
I knew this would be a good time to turn the game on.
Cmon Richie! Show us why you’re worth 14 million!
That was vidro-esque right there. Way to blast it Richie.
Well one thing is for sure
There’s no chance HE’LL hit into an inning ending dp
Kenji can’t possibly GIDP again, can he..?
Jesus, throw the ball kid.
GameDay is confused
Way to take one for the team Kenji!
JUICE EM
Kenji!
Pinch hit now plz!
Dave– FSN likes to break pitchers down by how much time they’ve spent in the game. For instance, they had some stats up on the screen a while back where they showed a pitcher’s ERA by inning. Does this have predictive value?
Lopez is due, right?
Lopez is due, right?
154: A good rule of thumb is that anything FSN focuses on is useless information.
154 I’m not Dave but I can tell you no.
When the last time Jose has crushed one? He’s due
A sac fly here would really signal that this is the Ms miracle year….
I love the ranger fans doing the wave with the bases loaded and a 1 run lead. Reminds me of Safeco.
Thats what I like to see Jose!
Shweet.
Oooooh Jopez manages something.
Yeah Jose! Keep showing me that I should believe in you!
Nice play by Saltalamacchia.
Like Jose, Ichiro is due as well.
yeah don’t bother taking a pitch from a guy having control problems who just hit a guy
Ichiro could knock one out here…
I’d like to see the statistical analysis on “Dueness”
Ichiro could hit a home run anytime he wants to.
Ichiro is always due
Wait, wtf happened with fangraph if you’re looking at it?
Oh nevermind I forgot Betancourt even batted, that was lame.
Ichiro doesn’t see balls outside the strike zone, just balls that are afraid of him.
Ichiro!
OMG ICHIRO!!!!!
Worth every penny.
Ichiro 90 million? Worth every penny!
That’ll work!
Yeah! TAKE THAT RANGERS!
Wow that was almost a grand slam? gamecast shows it on the wall in center!
Thank god we re-signed him… What an awesome at-bat. How do you spell clutch? I-C-H-I-R-O
On the track, grayfox.
Ok, who’s wearing Turbo’s jersey out there….
You know the planets are aligned when Sexson gets an infield hit and Vidro yanks one out in the same inning.
Why don’t they move the Sonics to the Emerald Queen Casino?
turboooooooo!
Okay, even if we assume Ibanez is a better hitter than Jones, it’s time to make the change. We’re looking at one more at bat from that slot this game (two if we turn it to a blowout). Perfect time to upgrade defensively and rest the vet’s legs.
188… you gotta ride the hot hand.*
* sarcasm
Get Broussard in there too.
I assume he still plays for the M’s? I haven’t seen him in so long heh.
188 Makes sense to me unless somebody wants to prove you wrong. Bring in Broussard as well.
haha. Run away, Run away!
190 – His wife is still giving birth. Been in labor for 272 hours.
Woah, I bet that sucks.
The pyth. win percentage is going to look better after tonight, if the score stays the same for 3 more innings.
Angels lead Toronto 2-0. Last thing we need is a resurgent Ervin Santana.
Holy crap Sexson, how many times are going to swing and miss at the same pitch?
197- I misssed it. Was it in on the hands?
It’s amazing that there’s someone who’s struck out 32 more times than Sexson. (Brandon Inge.)
#198 — It was down and away.
OK, I get that you can’t, and I think even at this point I believe we shouldn’t, take Raul out of the lineup. But why the hell isn’t Broussard getting at bats?
Sorry, DizzleChizzle, I was working on dinner. msb found a link that basically covered it. I saw somewhere–Mariners.com or Geoff’s blog–the same quotes, expanded a bit.
Had a feeling Guillen may have had something to say after Lopez was on third, 2/3 of the way home, standing stock still, watching an infield hit. (Was it that or a fly ball, 2nd out? Second Twins game? Memory’s going.) As Joe Morgan would say, Stop watching the game and play!
I hate the headfirst slide anyway, but just the fact the dirt print was up near the neck of Lopez’s jersey suggests something went terribly wrong. They had a nice shot of him on the bench with Felix, still picking dirt out of his chin in the ninth. Those dirt scabs take forever to fall off, Jose, start picking now.
Weaver’s ERA (5.51) is finally starting to look respectable, at least in comparison to what it was earlier this season.
200 I thought it was more down and inside myself, but he swung and missed at the same breaking ball 3 times during that AB. He managed to barely foul off a 4th one as well. He just looks lost tonight.
Weaver has a shot at ten wins and a sub-5.00 ERA by the end of the season. Who’d have thought that possible in May?
Man I sure hope those two people are smashed beyond reason. There’s no other excuse for that “dancing”.
Way to pop another one up, Yuni.
In all fairness, I have seen Guillen turn at least one, maybe two, triples into doubles on balls that he thought had left the yard. He was admiring his strength. One, at home against Pittsburgh, cost the M’s a run.
3-2 now angels still on top
Dammit they’re not human. Either that or the Mariners aren’t human. Both teams can’t be human and keeping up this pace.
That would be two CG-winner Weaver.
Now, if Sexson is still in the starting line-up against LAA next week should would you consider that a tell-tale sign that the M’s are more concerned about keeping their Vets happy than they are about winning?
#206– I wondered if they were from Seattle, Capitol of Bad Dancing.
Aw, they took away Richie’s hit and made it an error? For shame.
Richie’s going to break out. Any day now.
Really.
Pinch-runner Adam Jones, ladies and gentlemen.
Adam Jones, professional pinch runner.
AJ!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes, let’s not bring in Broussard against a RHP when Richie is 0-for-4 and the game is almost over.
Richie was due.
Or maybe that was his wife.
A real hit by Richie? Superhuman indeed!
Hey, good on me for setting the jinx.
good. I thought they need one more run. just in case.
JJ will be coming in on 5 days rest, in a no-pressure situation. Even if Kevin Hench doesn’t agree, I still want runs.
I was rooting for Richie to strikeout only so McLaren might bench him for 1 stinking game. Sorry to be a sourpuss but Richie had no business in tonight’s lineup.
Jones is going to have more runs than at-bats pretty soon.
I guess Mac was as surprised as anyone that Richie batted in a run. He had JJ all warmed up for a save. Now we are wasting him in a non-save situation.
Sexson really should have had two hits tonight. That smash to 3B should have been called a hit.
It wouldn’t have been a save even if Richie had done what he has been doing all year; it was a four run lead.
Seriously, the Ms are proof-positive that the Manager really has little effect on a team’s success one way or the other.
You gotta love that splitter.
228. then why all the acrimony about the lineups he chooses? And his needless wearing out of the bull pen?
Dude, JJ is freakin’ nasty…. That was a sick out pitch he tossed at Salty.
JJ should be working on the 3rd out right now.
232: Isn’t he?
227. My bad.
233, now he is but the Ump missed a called 3rd strike on the last batter.
Matt Stairs is the man!
4-3 Toronto.
That was an easy strike-out. Fast ball over the heart of the plate, no swing. But M’s win!
Gotcha. And theres the win.
And did Dave just call Jeff Weaver Jared Weaver, or are my ears deceiving me?
Come on Blue Jays!
Gotta say, the Texas announcers are WAY better than the Twinkies ones.
Nice win by the M’s and LAA is losing 5-3 right now. Could be a good night.
And Weaver continues with his odd run distribution:
Games with >= 6 runs allowed: 7
Games with
blue jays are up!!!!!
230: If they made much difference…then we’d win by 15 every night, right?
240 – Couldn’t agree more… Man, they must have a really hard time finding talent in the Twin Cities. What a couple of ass-clowns.
Woo.
I never root for a player to get injured but Chone Figgins injury is going to hurt the Angels a lot. It’s a wrist injury so it’ll be hard for it to completely heal without reaggravating it.
Keys of the game (according to Blowers): throw first-pitch strikes and keep ahead of the count.
I’ll keep that in mind.
Wait, they’re supposed to be AHEAD of the count? Ohhhh!
I missed almost all of that game but the results? Stoked. And the Blue Jays lead? Eeeee!
Plus, though we have to buy our own tickets, work’s letting a bunch of us go to the game next Wednesday. Now I just have to bully the rest of the group into wearing blue.
Just finished watching the game on DVR and all I got to say is…
Holy Vidro!
Tonight’s Sabermetric Anti-Hero of the Game…
JOSE VIDRO!!!
Let me try that again:
Weaver’s run distribution:
Games with 6 or more runs allowed: 7
Games with 3 or fewer runs allowed: 12
Games with 4 or 5 runs allowed: zero
I love to see the Angel’s aggresive baserunning come back to bite them in the ass.
#252
That…is bizarre. When you’re hot you’re hot…when you’re not, you’re not…
I want a thread to gush on and on about why Ichiro should be the MVP instead of Mr. “It’s not about the money.” Realistically, does he have any chance when A-Rod is putting up the high profile numbers (HR, RBI) and plays in New York? Would the M’s have to wind up with the best record in baseball? (Psst…they’re only three games back!)
One run, bottom of the 9th. Please hold on to this one, Jays…
Yay, Angels lead cut to 1
ONE Game back!
Ladies and Gentlemen, this is the beginning of the ascent of the Mariners to a World Championship. First the Angels, then the Red Sox, and, after that, Bob Melvin’s D’backs will all go down in front of the Mariner juggernaut. Get your tickets to the Fall Classic now. It is going to happen this year!
Mmmm let’s not get ahead of ourselves, winning the division is good enough for now.
One thing is for sure, LA fans are sweating bullets right now.
259 (JIMINEDMONDS)- It appears as if that was a prediction in chronological order. Unfortunately, due to stupid baseball rules, teams from the same division are disallowed from playing each other in the “Division Series.”
Maybe you just meant we are taking them down next week. But, anyway..
252-
It’s not really that strange, 5 of those 7 terrible starts were before his stint on the DL, while 11 out of those 13 good ones are after. He must’ve really been hurt somehow.
I noticed that Ichiro is one percentage point behind Ordonez for the AL batting avg. lead. I was wondering if there’s a lot of precedence for Ichiro’s dominance of the batting avg. charts over the last six years relative to his high number of at-bats. My point being, I would tend to think it’s harder to hit for average the more at-bats you have, and Ichiro generally has more at-bats than just about anybody. Is this common amongst BA leaders over history? This year, he has about 50 to 150 more at-bats than anyone around him. Is that a stupid question?
P.S. My overarching theory here being, Ichiro is totally f#*ckin’ awesome.
#261–Let me clarify: first,we pass the Angels; second, we beat Cleveland in the ALDS; third, we beat Boston in the ALCS; and, fourth, we vanquish the D’backs in the World Series, as the 85-1 Mariners come home a winner. My enthusiasm got the best of me when I overlooked the first round of playoffs.
Ichiro has more at bats because a) he leads off and b) he doesn’t take any days off c) he’s never hurt and d) he doesn’t walk much, thereby causing the vast majority of his plate appearances to at bats.
Compared to Ordonez, the numbers say it’s mostly because he leads off.
Player G AB H BB PA(~AB+BB)
Ichiro 124 521 182 39 560
Ordonez 123 466 164 60 526
Ordonez is earning his place on AVG leader board – that’s not that many fewer PAs.
But your point that Ichiro! is always there is a good one. While some guy can have a freak season and beat him out for the batting title, it’s rarely the same guy.
I know *why* Ichiro has more at-bats than most folks, I’m just wondering if it’s common for someone who is consistently at the top of the at-bat charts to also be so consistently at the top of the BA charts, because I would think that the law of averages would work against you and put you at a disadvantage when you have so many more ABs than most of your fellow BA leaders.
Never mind. I just looked at the actual numbers and A-Rod is running away with MVP this year. The only way anyone else will be considered at all is if the Yankees miss the playoffs somehow. Go Detroit! (As long as Ordonez doesn’t hit well enough to top Ichiro for the batting title.)
If a guy gets a hit 35% of the time, he’s going to bat .350 whether he has 500 AB’s or 700 AB’s. Or am I missing something?
No, not necessarily, I’m just wondering if it’s harder to get a hit 35% percent of the time the more at-bats you get.
P.S. I admitted from the start it might be a stupid question.
Well the larger the sample size the truer it is to a players ability. So if Ichiro is hitting .350 and thereabouts consistently each year you can make an argument that he really is that skilled and it can’t be attributed to a small sample size, like you might be able to claim for Ordonez.
Sure, but at the end of the season, who wins more BA titles? The Ichiros or the Ordonezes?
And why does coolstandings favor the yankees playoff chances so much more than the M’s still (64% to 47%), when the M’s have a 3 game lead in the loss column and a much worse chance at the division?
I mean, the Yanks have a much worse chance at the division. Did I mention that I am a sad, baseball dilletante?
All I have to say is this is a fun team to follow, and I hope they continue playing this well through October.
It is true, statistically speaking, that the more AB’s you have, the more difficult it is to have a high BA – because a high BA is based in some small part on luck going in your favor — the more AB’s a batter has, the lower the probability that their luck will last long enough to work in their favor (regression to their true skill level will occur) — thus Ichiro’s high BA’s over the years with such a high number of AB’s is a testimony to his very high skill level
why does coolstandings favor the yankees playoff chances so much more than the M’s
Because they have more talent, and an easier schedule?
And they have outscored opponents by like 150 runs and M’s have outscored their opponents by about 25.
Smoke and mirrors are fun for fans, not so much for probabilists or betting men….
#247, DizzleChizzle:
“. . . Chone Figgins injury is going to hurt the Angels a lot. It’s a wrist injury so it’ll be hard for it to completely heal without reaggravating it.”
That’s what they said about Ken Griffey Jr. in ‘95. We all know how that prediction turned out.
It’s easier to get extreme batting average vlues with smaller numbers of at-bats because of the high level of statistical noise in batting average.
Which means, since Ichiro has lots of at-bats every year, and generally hits about .330, we can reasonably expect him to hit around .330 every year because that’s probably his natural talent level. Hitting .400 (or .260) for Ichiro would be easier with fewer at-bats, because the smaller sample size would increase the unexplained variance (luck, good or bad).
So, if Ichiro has the highest natural batting average in the league, he’s more likely to be beaten for the batting title by a guy with fewer at-bats, ecause that guy has a greater chance of hitting above his natural talent level than a guy with more at-bats.
Notor, Doc Baseball, Evan, you’re all right about Ichiro and his chances for a batting title. He’s obviously very good at hitting for average, so he’s got a good chance to win every year. But every year, there are going to be players that have many fewer at bats than him that have perhaps gotten the benefit of random occurence, and may end up with a higher batting average.
That’s baseball.
Optioned?
278 – yep, it resulted in the team having fewer total wins down the stretch than they probably would have had with Junior in the lineup, meaning that instead of winning the division outright they had to go to a one game playoff.
the more AB’s you have, the more difficult it is to have a high BA – because a high BA is based in some small part on luck going in your favor — the more AB’s a batter has, the lower the probability that their luck will last long enough to work in their favor (regression to their true skill level will occur) — thus Ichiro’s high BA’s over the years with such a high number of AB’s is a testimony to his very high skill level
Actually the first part, which is correct, somewhat contradicts the second part. Ichiro’s true skill level appears to be .325 to .330; by season in ascending order his averages are .303, .312, .321, .322, .350 (YTD), .352, .370. So being a .330 hitter is a demonstration of skill — perhaps that’s all you meant — but hitting .350 or .370 suggests he’s been lucky.
To the original question, the Ordonez’s of the world win more batting titles simply because there are so many of them. Of the 10-20 hitters who are legitimate .300-320 hitters, one of them is bound to get lucky and given year and hit .340-.350. Ichiro might be the best hitter for average in the AL, but his gap between the rest of the field isn’t so large that random variance can’t overcome it on a regular basis.
I agree with docbaseball and others. Ichiro’s AB’s mean he’s perhaps less selective, (perhaps?) and in taking less walks, maybe is hitting ‘his pitch’ less often. Of course, then that shows how ridiculously talented he is by racking up those AB’s and batting average. Most of your batting champions are lauded for having a ‘good eye’, and being able to ‘hit their pitch’…see Tony Gwynn, for one. Ichiro has a good eye, as in phenomenal hand-eye coordination. Every pitch looks great because he can hit everything! While it’s good for his hit totals, it may not bode well for his OBP or is batting average. By taking so many cracks at it, he may be removing the high end of his statistical fluctuations…
#282, mr smartypants
“yep, it resulted in the team having fewer total wins down the stretch than they probably would have had with Junior in the lineup, meaning that instead of winning the division outright they had to go to a one game playoff.”
Can’t see the forest for the trees, eh?
I have to admit the thought crossed my mind, mostly because it would be two ‘overachieving’ teams that the networks would hate
#286, msb:
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“I have to admit the thought crossed my mind, mostly because it would be two ‘overachieving’ teams that the networks would hate
They’d hate it ratings-wise, but if Jeff Rickard and Freddy Coleman on ESPN Radio’s GameNight last night are any indication, the people themselves would love to see that matchup. They were pretty giddy over that very possibility.