Comments on: Game 125, Mariners at Rangers

By: Slippery Elmer

Slippery Elmer — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 19:57:20 +0000

#286, msb:
“I have to admit the thought crossed my mind, mostly because it would be two ‘overachieving’ teams that the networks would hate ”

They’d hate it ratings-wise, but if Jeff Rickard and Freddy Coleman on ESPN Radio’s GameNight last night are any indication, the people themselves would love to see that matchup. They were pretty giddy over that very possibility.

By: msb

msb — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 18:32:30 +0000

Bob Melvin’s D’backs

I have to admit the thought crossed my mind, mostly because it would be two ‘overachieving’ teams that the networks would hate

By: Slippery Elmer

Slippery Elmer — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 18:11:10 +0000

#282, mr smartypants
“yep, it resulted in the team having fewer total wins down the stretch than they probably would have had with Junior in the lineup, meaning that instead of winning the division outright they had to go to a one game playoff.”

Can’t see the forest for the trees, eh?

By: ajdaddy

ajdaddy — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 16:52:05 +0000

I agree with docbaseball and others. Ichiro’s AB’s mean he’s perhaps less selective, (perhaps?) and in taking less walks, maybe is hitting ‘his pitch’ less often. Of course, then that shows how ridiculously talented he is by racking up those AB’s and batting average. Most of your batting champions are lauded for having a ‘good eye’, and being able to ‘hit their pitch’…see Tony Gwynn, for one. Ichiro has a good eye, as in phenomenal hand-eye coordination. Every pitch looks great because he can hit everything! While it’s good for his hit totals, it may not bode well for his OBP or is batting average. By taking so many cracks at it, he may be removing the high end of his statistical fluctuations…

By: Adam S

Adam S — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 16:34:42 +0000

the more AB’s you have, the more difficult it is to have a high BA – because a high BA is based in some small part on luck going in your favor — the more AB’s a batter has, the lower the probability that their luck will last long enough to work in their favor (regression to their true skill level will occur) — thus Ichiro’s high BA’s over the years with such a high number of AB’s is a testimony to his very high skill level
Actually the first part, which is correct, somewhat contradicts the second part. Ichiro’s true skill level appears to be .325 to .330; by season in ascending order his averages are .303, .312, .321, .322, .350 (YTD), .352, .370. So being a .330 hitter is a demonstration of skill — perhaps that’s all you meant — but hitting .350 or .370 suggests he’s been lucky.

To the original question, the Ordonez’s of the world win more batting titles simply because there are so many of them. Of the 10-20 hitters who are legitimate .300-320 hitters, one of them is bound to get lucky and given year and hit .340-.350. Ichiro might be the best hitter for average in the AL, but his gap between the rest of the field isn’t so large that random variance can’t overcome it on a regular basis.

By: mr.smartypants

mr.smartypants — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 12:49:39 +0000

278 – yep, it resulted in the team having fewer total wins down the stretch than they probably would have had with Junior in the lineup, meaning that instead of winning the division outright they had to go to a one game playoff.

By: Typical Idiot Fan

Typical Idiot Fan — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 12:38:49 +0000

From the “Official” Mariners Website:

Selected RHP Rick White from Triple-A Tacoma; Optioned LHP John Parrish to Triple-A Tacoma.

Optioned?

By: nathaniel dawson

nathaniel dawson — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 12:27:28 +0000

Notor, Doc Baseball, Evan, you’re all right about Ichiro and his chances for a batting title. He’s obviously very good at hitting for average, so he’s got a good chance to win every year. But every year, there are going to be players that have many fewer at bats than him that have perhaps gotten the benefit of random occurence, and may end up with a higher batting average.

That’s baseball.

By: Evan

Evan — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 09:55:43 +0000

It’s easier to get extreme batting average vlues with smaller numbers of at-bats because of the high level of statistical noise in batting average.

Which means, since Ichiro has lots of at-bats every year, and generally hits about .330, we can reasonably expect him to hit around .330 every year because that’s probably his natural talent level. Hitting .400 (or .260) for Ichiro would be easier with fewer at-bats, because the smaller sample size would increase the unexplained variance (luck, good or bad).

So, if Ichiro has the highest natural batting average in the league, he’s more likely to be beaten for the batting title by a guy with fewer at-bats, ecause that guy has a greater chance of hitting above his natural talent level than a guy with more at-bats.

By: Slippery Elmer

Slippery Elmer — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 09:46:19 +0000

#247, DizzleChizzle:
“. . . Chone Figgins injury is going to hurt the Angels a lot. It’s a wrist injury so it’ll be hard for it to completely heal without reaggravating it.”

That’s what they said about Ken Griffey Jr. in ‘95. We all know how that prediction turned out.