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Last nights game sucked. Lets just get that out of the way ahead of time.
That said, I wouldn’t worry about the offense. That was the third time this year John Lackey has shut us down, and in the previous two games following the beatdown, the M’s combined for 31 hits against Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver. As we talked about last week, the M’s hyper-aggressive offense leads to high variability, and on any given night, against any pitcher, they can get either put up a goose egg or a 10 spot and it shouldn’t surprise us.
Also, much is being made this morning of Jose Lopez missing the tag on Gary Matthews at second base last night. Without making any excuses for Lopez (yes, a more aggressive tag would have helped), can we give Gary Matthews Jr some credit for making one of the best slides of the year? The pop-up slide isn’t exactly a routine fundamental that everyone can pull off, and that one was beautiful. I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve seen a runner be able to pull off a pop-up slide that effectively to avoid the tag. Lopez could have made the whole thing moot by not waiting for Matthews to slide into his glove, but let’s be honest – 99.5% of the time, the runner does slide right into the glove, and no one says a word to Lopez about his tag.
This actually is becoming something of a bigger issue. The club has, over the years, been quite happy to let the media and fans know how unhappy they have been with Lopez’s work ethic, his conditioning, and his lack of concentration. It has essentially become part of the narrative. A couple of recent high profile mistakes in the field are now feeding into the already established belief (and one that has foundations in truth) that Lopez can hurt you at times with his faux pas. However, the problem arises when people begin to incorrectly value the actual cost of these mistakes.
For all the frustration you may have for Lopez missing the tag last night, he was still a plus with his glove on the night. His double play in the first inning was a thing of beauty, one of the toughest DPs you’ll ever see a second baseman have to turn. Thanks to improved footwork and somewhat above average range, Lopez is actually a defensive asset. This gets lost in all the “oh my god I can’t believe he didn’t get the tag down” hoopla. Yes, he made a mistake, but taking the stance that those are the kinds of plays that a team “can’t tolerate in a playoff run” is just missing the forest from the trees. If you take Jose Lopez out of the line-up, you’re actually degrading the defense. And this isn’t a defense that can afford to get any worse.
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Do you see a repeat of the Carlos Guillen Affair brewing? That is, the negativity causes the club to rid itself of a valuable asset, likely at a greatly reduced rate of return?
It’s definitely possible. Lopez is, undoubtedly, a frustrating player at times. This is an organization that has not shown any kind of patience for frustrating but valuable players.
So the fact that he signed a contract should not be construed as a willingness on the part of the club to work with him? Also, who’s writing this narrative that sees Lopez as a problem? Grover didn’t seem to be a fan, but he’s gone and the story continues. Wouldn’t you think that someone’s a fan, what with the deal and all???
So the fact that he signed a contract should not be construed as a willingness on the part of the club to work with him?
Not necessarily, no. One of Bavasi’s main beliefs is in the cost savings of locking up a large group of young players to long term deals that buy out their arbitration years. He knows that not all of them will succeed, but by signing them as a large group, he can save money on the whole. We asked him point blank at the last USSM event if he would do the Betancourt/Lopez extensions again, and without getting too deep into specifics, lets just say he didn’t give Lopez a ringing endorsement.
Also, who’s writing this narrative that sees Lopez as a problem?
Geoff Baker went after Lopez for the missed tag last night.
Are there any 2nd baseman hitting free agancy this summer? Or any prospects in the system?
Does anyone think that it’s time to give up on Lopez being an outstanding 2nd baseman?
I hope they stick with Lopez. I think he is a fun player to watch and contributes his fair share on both sides of the ball. That DP in the first was amazing and is the reason he should be starting down the stretch regardless of his bat production.
Not counting pitching, the right side of the infield seems like the place where the most upgrade would be possible.
I was sitting in 405 traffic at the time… but how bad was his base running blunder getting caught between third and home?
They will stick with Lopez and give him a chance to breakout, besides, they have him signed for a few more years. No reason to spend more on medeocrity there.
any chance that Bavasi’s awareness that management blew it by moving Guillen buys Lopez a little more time to ‘mature’?
Right now, Lopez is an offensive liability – that’s what people should be complaining about. However, his defense has made strides to the point that his overall performance isn’t going to kill you, especially for a fairly cheap second baseman. I thinks it’s probably fair to give his offensive game a little more time before we turn on the guy.
I do love watching his defense, but with him and Betancourt being #3 & #4 in IF/F this year, he’s not much fun to watch at the plate.
Lopez getting caught between 3rd and home had no effect. If he had stayed at 3rd it would have been 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs anyway. We simply exchanged lopez on 3rd for vidro on 2nd.
The thoughts on Lopez are what I was curious about. It does seem that he gets involved in high profile lapses in the field, fielding and baserunning. I just wonder if these are things that can be fixed by additional work with the coaches (lack of experience, he is young), or if there is a real issue here. The problem is, there isn’t a player like Asdrubal Cabrera waiting in the minors, and signing a free agent isn’t all that appealing to me this off-season. I’ll be honest, I am a bit concerned with Lopez right now. It simply hasn’t been a good year for him.
Lopez was running on contact on anything hit to the right side but the ball was hit right to the first baseman. He realized he’d be out by a mile so stopped and forced the rundown to allow the runners to get to second and third. It was actually a pretty heady play by Lopez because otherwise he’d have been thrown out at home leaving runners on first and second.
I don’t have a problem with Lopez’s defense. It’s his dropoff in hitting after the All Star game for the second year in a row that I see as a possible sign that his conditioning level isn’t high enough to get him through a long season.
The way I see it, Jose is 23 years old. He’s into his second full season and has two partial seasons before that. He’s probably been rushed a little too quickly and could stand to work on a few things. He seems to have the skills to play at a high level (although I’ve been a little disappointed in the dropoff on hitting this year…it would have been nice to see him “build” on last year) and most of the mistakes we complain about are mental mistakes (which can be corrected or could possibly take care of themselves with time and experience). It worries me that Bavasi didn’t back him so maybe they see something I don’t. But I’ll stick with what I began with…he’s still young. Sometimes we forget how young with how long he’s been up now (he’s actually younger than Yuni!). I hope they don’t give up on him yet. Of any positions in the field, 2nd base is one you can stand a little weak offensive production as long as you get good defense.
I’m a fan of Lopez, but I think one of the fair criticisms of his play is his awkwardness around the bag. It usually shows up on throws from the catcher . . . have you ever noticed how often he is out of position, taking a throw on his ass or on his knees when someone tries to steal?
What I don’t understand is why the second baseman would respond to the pop-up by reaching out for the player. The player avoided the tag with that move, yes, but they still have to touch the bag. If you’ve already got your glove down right on the bag, why not keep it there? How’s the runner going to get a hand or foot in when your glove is right on the bag waiting for him? People seem to be faulting him for not going after him harder before he popped up, but it seems to me that he shouldn’t have gone after him at all, he should have just waited for the runner to make his move.
#17–exactly right. I was always taught to put the tag on the ground and leave it there (NOT reach for the runner) because the runner has to come to you eventually. If Lopez had left the tag on the ground, Matthews would have had to try to step over him, at which point Lopez could have come up with the tag and got him on the bottom of the foot (which would have the enjoyable side effect of causing Matthews to fall over).
This was a very frustrating game to watch. It seemed as if all breaks went against the Mariners, from the Ichiro strike out call, to the Lopez missed tag, to the 2-out Guerrero shot to SS where Cabrera beat Yuni’s flip (which preceded Anderson’s double), to the 2 GIDPs. However, the bottom line was that the Mariners could not touch Lackey all night, and they have not touched him all year. The rest of it mattered very little in the big scheme of things.
Just because McLaren (and Geoff Baker) have called Lopez out for this mistake (and it was a mistake, no doubt about it), doesn’t mean that the M’s are going to bench Lopez because of it and play Vidro at second base — that’s what you’re worried about, right Dave? They know Lopez is their best defensive second baseman. And yes, it most definitely was a mistake that cannot be tolerated during a pennant race (but in this game it didn’t end up hurting us). I don’t see the harm in McLaren letting Lopez know that so he can focus on not making those types of mistakes in the future. Maybe we’ll even see Bloomquist in there at second tonight so Lopez has a night to think about it, but they’re not going to overreact and take Lopez’s starting job away. On another note it would be nice if Lopez would start hitting. He’s batting .221 with a .262 slugging and just 5 RBI since the All-Star break!
The way this roster is constructed, it seems like there are bigger issues that need to be addressed this winter than their #8 hitting 23 year old second baseman that shows flashes of All Star quality play backed by flashes of A.D.D. How about First Base, or #5 starter, or the log jam in the DH/OF position.
If there had to be a night where the breaks weren’t going to fall our way and our starter was going to suck, last night was the night to have it. Because with Lackey on the mound, we were probably going to lose anyway.
the right side of the infield seems like the place where the most upgrade would be possible
I would agree if you were only referring to the very far right side of the infield.
Lopez is the least of our worries, really. If Broussard started for Sexson against every righty, and Raul never played defense, then maybe you have a case to go after Lopez and his poor hitting. I really feel that Lopez will turn his hitting around in due time.
from Hickey this morning:
“After the game, when Darling and the umpiring crew were asked who tossed McLaren, the door to the umpires’ room closed as a voice said, “Have a nice night.”"
I’m not convinced he’s Adam Everett out there, even though I accept that he’s head and shoulders above anyone else the M’s have at 2B in the org, defensively. At what point, though, does the sub-.500 OPS since the ASB (and .650 overall) start seriously negating any defensive advantage Lopez brings to the table?
The real problem seems to me to be that the M’s don’t really have any other alternatives that defensively won’t kill them. I suppose Bloomquist’s glove would be better than Vidro’s at second, but how much more offense would Bloomquist give you over Lopez going forward?
Well, no one’s claiming he’s Adam Everett out there, so the fact that you’re not convinced of that doesn’t make you any different from the rest of us.
I agree with those concerned about Lopez’s offense. I’d (dons flak jacket) start Vidro at second and Jones in left (Ibanez DH) at least when a flyball pitcher is on the mound.
A few career statistics:
Willie Bloomquist: 1045 AB. OPS+: 74. RF9 (range factor per 9 innings): 4.49. Age: 29.
Jose Lopez: 1438 AB. OPS+: 82. RF9: 5.06. Age: 23.
Willie Bloomquist is neither a better offensive nor defensive second baseman than Jose Lopez, disregarding the fact that he’s six years older. Interestingly, according to range factor Ballgame’s no better defensively than Jose Vidro (at least, the healthy-knee Vidro).
Ehh – I wouldn’t use range factor if you paid me.
Bloomquist is certainly >>> Vidro defensively. Bloomquist is fine at second base with the glove – Vidro is a disaster.
But, yea, of all the options, Lopez is still the superior choice of the three.
I suppose Bloomquist’s glove would be better than Vidro’s at second, but how much more offense would Bloomquist give you over Lopez going forward?
Well, consiering that Bloomquist at his best is basically a .260/.310/.350 hitter with speed, almost nothing- and that’s assuming Lopez continues to suck. I sure hope the Mariners aren’t thinking it’s time to hand Willie a fulltime job, because Jose Lopez actually has a chance to be useful with a bat before too long. Willie, well, doesn’t- nothing in his minor or major league career suggests he’s anything more than a slap hitter with some wheels.
For those of you wanting to give up on Lopez, let me introduce you to a mystery player…
Mystery Player A came up at age 21 (a young age, like Lopez) and put up the following BA/OBP/SLG lines as a corner OF:
Age 21: .267/.300/.412
Age 22: .267/.298/.414
Age 23: .253/.315/.340
Age 24: .253/.320/.430
Age 25: .274/.317/.378
Age 26: .238/.287/.367
At this point, multiple organizations had given up on him, and with good reason: we’re talking someone with almost 2,000 plate appearances and a career OPS+ at around 80 playing corner OF. That’s a pretty horrible ballplayer (for reference, Jose Lopez’s career OPS is 82… while playing credible 2B).
Meet Mystery Player A.
Multiply Mystery Player A by Raul Ibanez, Jack Cust, Carlos Guillen and so on, and this is why giving up on players early can be a mistake.
Didn’t that shot to right for Sexon used to fly out? Is that a symptom of lost power?
I know this is a strech but would they ever consider putting someone like Jones at second base? He is a great athlete and a former infielder. I realize this year would be a stretch but in the future.
jones will hopefully be starting in the outfield for a decade…
We’re going to have to create another FAQ, and the Jones to second base question will be one of the top answers – no, never going to happen, nor should it.
Oh, and something else to consider. Lopez’s home and road splits:
Home: .244/.283/.363
Road: .283/.312/.402
Lopez is a RH pull hitter in the absolute worst park in the universe to be a RH pull hitter. His splits last year (before “hey, try and spray the ball” became the mantra his coaches had for him):
Home: .251/.291/.353
Road: .309/.343/.450
If I’m Billy Beane or some sharp GM (coughSchuerholzcough) and I figure out that the M’s organization doesn’t like Jose Lopez…. well, we all remember the Carlos Guillen trade, right? Basically, Lopez is in an environment that obscures his strengths, and accentuates his weakenesses. Good thing other GMs don’t regularly take advantage of Bavasi on things li- oh, wait…
This also brings up the issue of why, oh God, WHY don’t the Mariners fix Safeco so that most of their minor league hitters don’t get royally screwed by it while still keeping it a pitcher’s park (and thus lead the team to undervalue them and overvalue certain pitchers), but that topic’s just going to give me an aneurysm, so let’s not go there.
Leaving him on the bench six days a week should never happen either.
Bavasi talked about the fence thing at the Tacoma meetup. Basically, the organization is 50/50 on whether to adjust the dimensions. I have to think it happens eventually.
Well, no one’s claiming he’s Adam Everett out there, so the fact that you’re not convinced of that doesn’t make you any different from the rest of us
Well, certainly I was exaggerating a bit to make a point — my question ultimately is, at what point do you really explore other options since the only asset he provides, really, is defense? At what point does his bat get so terrible that any advantage he may give over another player, defensively, is negated enough by horrible offense that the runs allowed vs. runs produced balance is so badly tilted that you have to explore those other options?
I guess this all gets back to how you project future performance, and is yet another kick in the pants for me to finish that post.
But, short answer, it doesn’t happen this year. Lopez could go 0 for his next 30 and I’d still support him as the everyday second baseman. I’m just basically unmoved by recent performances on my expectations of how a guy will do going forward.
my question ultimately is, at what point do you really explore other options since the only asset he provides, really, is defense?
When the M’s have a credible candidate to be an everyday 2B? Vidro and Bloomquist don’t count, there isn’t anyone in the minors in the middle infield who really deserves a major league job right now, and for God’s sake, the kid’s 23. Let’s not pronounce his career over just yet? I could give you a list as long as my arm of players who didn’t hit worth a damn their first 1000 plate appearances in the majors- and almost none of them went to an All-Star game like Lopez did.
Again, this has the potential to be a Aurilia/Guillen situation (or Soriano/Ramirez), where the M’s piss away a valuable talent for another organization’s table scraps because they’ve locked in on the negatives and ignored the positives. I’d rather they didn’t- though I’m not unnaturally attached to Jose Lopez (sure, you could improve your team trading him), the problem is he almost certainly is at the sell-low nadir of his value, and this organization does NOT need to indulge their worst tendencies in thinking WFB, Turbo, or Random Free Agent Du Jour is the answer.
Oh, and while I’m at it…
Michael Young, career road stats: .278/.321/.408
Jose Lopez, career road stats: .283/.312/.402
Please to be noting that Lopez at age 23 is ALREADY basically as good a hitter as Michael Young, age 30 is, once you take them out of their home parks.
The difference is that Young plays in a ballpark that’s a bad joke and massively inflates the value of right-handed pull hitters, and Lopez plays in a ballpark that’s just as much of a joke, but totally screws them- so what happens is the fan who doesn’t examine things critically in Texas thinks Young is the second coming of Derek Jeter, and the same fan in Seattle thinks Lopez is a bum.
Also, just for comparison, the guy the M’s wanted to acquire on July 31st to give Lopez some competition at second base and a veteran to potentially hand the job to for the rest of the season – Mark Loretta, hitting .214/.275/.250 since the all-star break after hitting .317/.394/.416 in the first half.
It’s just another data point in favor of the don’t-read-too-much-into-recent-performance doctrine.
Loretta, by the way, is an almost perfect comparison for Vidro, skillset wise:
Loretta, April-June: 240 plate appearances, .331/.408/.441, 23% LD, .361 BABIP, 10.8% BB, 8.7% K, .111 ISO
Loretta, July-August: 190 plate appearances, .215/.273/.250, 21% LD, .238 BABIP, 7.4% BB, 8.4% K, .035 ISO
Loretta’s first three months were driven by an unsustainable rate of hitting singles, and when the balls stopped finding holes, he turned into a pumpkin. This skillset is really, really fickle.
Well, that fan’s on the right track, defensively speaking.
From a 6-14 Geoff Baker article:
“His [Jose Lopez's] older brother, Gabriel, only 28, had been killed in a motorcycle crash. Lopez spoke to his father, Celestino, by phone and was told the funeral would be held this morning, making it impossible to fly to South America in time.”
There are humans whose concentration would not be affected by such an event, but that would be exceptional in my experience. Three, four, six months and longer – it will still be in the back of his mind.
Just more information.
I’d much rather the team adjusted the dimensions in Tacoma to prepare players for Safeco. I really like Safeco’s extreme performance. The park in San Francisco is also excellent.
I was really annoyed when Detroit moved in the fence at Comerica.
Yeah, Dave, that’s pretty much what I mean by “indulge their worst tendencies”. It’s Parrish/White all over again- time for someone who’s “been through wars”.
Lopez is young so we can only use the last 4 years. His Avg OBP are right at career numbers and his SLG% is down .020%. If you are expecting every year to be a All-Star year then you must have been ignoring the Future Forty for awhile now.
I haven’t seen any career number predictions but I am guessing about .275/.310/.400 would seem fitting and very acceptable to me. Do you have any kind of career prediction numbers Dave?
I’d much rather the team adjusted the dimensions in Tacoma to prepare players for Safeco.
So that way you can think all your AAA right handed hitters suck BEFORE they become major leaguers, instead of when they make it to the big leagues, and thus you can inappropriately evaluate their worth as prospects at an earlier phase of their development, and make it easier to give them away to other farm systems?
I think that’s a poor strategy. Look, most of the baseball universe of hitters is right-handed. A park that totally hoses them means you now have to find LH hitting to get decent offensive performance at home, and let’s see, Raul represents the last decent LH hitter this farm system produced, and Clement’s about 10 years behind him, so it’s not like they grow on trees.
I can see having a FAIR ballpark that kind of screws everyone (like Dodger Stadium), but this isn’t 1935 any more, when the Yankees in Old Yankee “450 feet to Monument Valley” Stadium had the pick of any LH prospect they wanted to give a big fat bonus check to. Safeco being SUCH an imbalanced park really messes with assessing player talents fairly- Cameron, Beltre and Lopez come to mind.
Cheney Stadium’s dimensions are already pretty large-
325-350L, 385LC, 425C, 385RC, 350-325R.. with extremely tall fences.
Do you have any kind of career prediction numbers Dave?
I wrote this post on Jose Lopez just over three years ago. This sentence basically sums up my thoughts.
“Whether he’s Adrian Beltre or Tony Batista is up to him and how hard he wants to work.”
My opinion hasn’t changed much at all since then. He wasn’t ready for the majors back then (when I was getting crucified for saying so), he should have spent 2005 in Tacoma, he was miscast as a shortstop, his best position was second base, and no one really knows whether he’ll plateau as a free-swinging useful-but-not-great player or makes some adjustments and taps into his legitimate power potential.
This entire thread demonstrates beyond a doubt how monumentally stupid and indefensible the Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez trade was.
on the other hand, it does mean Eduardo talks up the Ms on BBTN every chance he gets
This has been a difficult year for Lopez, to be sure. He’s a young man still and entitled to mistakes. By all rights and analyses, he has the tools to be a very good player. I would hope the M’s don’t give up on him and see how he responds next year. Losing 25 pounds might be a good start.
DKJ, #45:
I’ll let you in on a little personal experience on the topic. My brother, age 22, was killed last year in a random auto accident the day after Thanksgiving. I was a wreck for a week. After that I started pulling myself together.
If you’ve got something to focus on, you can shut it out. In fact, in my experience having something else to focus on was a godsend. It distracts your attention.
I’m well aware that my specific case doesn’t generalize to most people, and may not apply to Jose Lopez. However, I’ll point out that you’ve generally got two choices when you’re grieving: Wallow in self-pity or throw yourself into other activities.
Dave, that article on Lopez was a good read. I guess we could say is is working about half as hard and is in between those two guys.
Now if we had Julio Franco’s veteran leadership(workout program) then Lopez would be a star by now!
51 (Dave) – That post on Lopez was an excellent read, and your predictions were almost dead on.
I have noticed over the last week that the schedule is really getting to him. Have you noticed his swings just do not look full effort at all? I mean, they look really, really weak. I assume it is conditioning over mechanics.
This mistakes by Lopez will help to whip up sentiment for giving Willie more playing time. Over on Baker’s blog, I have seen posters recently calling for more Willie.
So with Beltre, Yuni (throwing errors dying down) and Lopez, how do the Ms not have one of the better defensive infields? Is Yuni *that* overrated? Is Sexson’s (non-existent) range *that* much of a hindrance?
Anybody know Lopez’s GH% (grit + hustle) is this year compared to last? I know Willie’s is through the roof, although it’s just a small sample..
So with Beltre, Yuni (throwing errors dying down) and Lopez, how do the Ms not have one of the better defensive infields? Is Yuni *that* overrated? Is Sexson’s (non-existent) range *that* much of a hindrance?
Well, yes, Richie Sexson’s range is disastrously bad – he’s pretty much the worst defensive first baseman in baseball by any serious metric you want to use. Lopez is a tick above average, Beltre’s solidly above average, and Betancourt should be but hasn’t been thanks to the airmailed throws.
So, add it up, and you get one guy who is good, one guy who is solid, one guy who is okay but should be good, and one guy who is terrible. That’s not really a recipe for a great group.
[too many spelling errors - spend more time proofreading comments]
I almost wish we’d hired Rickey Henderson as our hitting coach. There’d certainly be more entertaining postgame interviews, if nothing else.
And if there’s even some correlation between his arrival with the Mets before 2006 and Jose Reyes’ walk rate (which has tripled since 2005)… well, I just might promise him an AB every five years, like Minnie Minoso.
1 is too many!?… how about nuking my account (NOOK)
It was five, actually. It’s really not too much to ask for you to put a little bit of time into your comments.
It seems like range for a 1st baseman really isnt terribly important. He seems to be pretty good at scooping up the short hop throws.
What’s really painful is seeing Richie running after a pop-up down the first base line past the bag.
Actually, range at first base is quite important, and there’s no evidence that he’s any better than any other first baseman at preventing throwing errors.
Sexson is a brutal defensive player, and he and Ibanez have cost the team about 30 to 40 runs with the glove this year. It’s a massive total.
better conditioning will (in my opinion) help Lopez and other Mariners a great deal.
-Ti
The thing that got me about Dave’s old on Lopez all the way back in 2004 is his warning that Lopez’s type of player often takes 3 or 4 seasons to get it together (assuming they ever do).
Lopez for all the bitching is still a young player with the skillset to improve remarkably. That the Mariners either don’t see that or don’t care is pretty damning of the organization.
Also, it’s sad that in 2004 Dave was bemoaning the front office’s inability to understand the concept of freely available talent. In the 3 years since they’ve shown zero learning on that front.
That the Mariners either don’t see that or don’t care is pretty damning of the organization.
I’m not going to go this far yet – they’re still playing him, despite his struggles, for one thing. I’m somewhat worried that there’s the potential for another Guillen/Soriano dump-off because he’s just too frustrating for them to handle anymore, but let’s not criticize them for something they haven’t done yet.
Also, it’s sad that in 2004 Dave was bemoaning the front office’s inability to understand the concept of freely available talent. In the 3 years since they’ve shown zero learning on that front.
Well, I wouldn’t say they’ve shown no learning – look at the bullpen. Putz, Sherrill, Green, O’Flaherty, Rowland-Smith – the only guy down there that they used any kind of real resource to acquire was Morrow. Bavasi’s shown a real willingness to build a bullpen out of spare parts, even if he keeps injecting one horrible veteran after another into the mix.
But, yea, overall, it’s still a giant blind spot for the organization.
In your opinion, where do you think Sexson ranks on preventing throwing errors? I realize there might not be evidence to support it, but it seems like he never misses the scoops.
I don’t think there is any proof or even a strong indication that the Mariners manager or front office don’t see or care about Lopez’s potential:
– he’s been the starter at second base for 2 full years
– he’s been given a long-term contract
– he’s a regular, and has been given very few days off, in keeping with McLaren’s philosophy about all his regulars
Getting on a guy about the need to improve, when he does need to improve, is perfectly appropriate for a young player with his skillset. Sitting him occasionally for a better bat when ground-ball defense is not critical is entirely in keeping with the concept of maximizing win potential on a game by game basis.
In your opinion, where do you think Sexson ranks on preventing throwing errors? I realize there might not be evidence to support it, but it seems like he never misses the scoops.
I have no idea, honestly, so I’ll default to average. We’ve talked about this before, but the research done on the scooping issue has basically shown that even the very best guys at this make a marginal impact, far less so than they do by covering ground around the bag.
Dave – What metrics/stats would be best to show the defensive ability of a first baseman? I have several friends who think Richie is one of the best defensive first baseman in baseball, and I’d love a way to show them they’re wrong other than Fielding Percentage.
In the games I’ve watched this year, I think Sexson has saved a handful of high throws just by being tall. I haven’t seen anything to make me think he is an extraordinary “scooper”.
But far more than that are cost by ground balls past him and pop ups behind him that he really ought to get to.
I just wanted to echo what a couple people mentioned already. That whole game was awful on all fronts. Lackey owned us and it really doesn’t matter if you have 25 fielding mistakes if you can’t score a run. It seems a little silly to get upset over one play, I mean if you really need a scapegoat let’s get on Batista for giving up 6 at Safeco. (Not that I am looking for one myself)
It’s a little old, but the basic principles are still true:
http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/
Ralph Malph,
In the games I’ve watched this year, I think Sexson has saved a handful of high throws just by being tall.
Of course that assumes that the players throwing the ball don’t adjust their throws when there is a taller first baseman.
Dave
How would you rate Broussard’s Defense compared to Sexson’s?
Regarding Sexson, I think for some people he tends to look pretty good on the ‘what my eyes are telling me’ scale, or even Tango’s Fans Scouting Report (if you ignored the stats and just reported what you saw). I’ll admit I’m one of those people. I’m just being honest and accepting my weaknesses, so I may more openly accept enlightenment
I know there are alot of defensive stats out there and some are more useful than others. Dave do you consider THT’s RZR a good one? On that scale he is last in the AL among 1Bs.
Broussard’s not a good defensive player, but he’s not as bad as Sexson. In days when they’re both in the line-up, Broussard should be the one playing the field.
RZR is useful, especially when teamed with data from other sources, but I wouldn’t draw any strong conclusions based solely on it. And, again, you want several years of data before making firm statements about defensive ability based on the statistics. Sexson’s been bad enough for several years, by many metrics (and just watching him), that we can be pretty much sure that he’s a disaster with the glove. But if you’re just going to say “Sexson’s 2007 RZR is worst in the league, therefore he’s terrible”, I wouldn’t support such an argument. Your conclusion might be right, but the process is wrong.
How bad are Vidro and Ibanez as first basemen compared to Sexson. I think both have appeared their ocasionally. If you’re going to keep them in the lineup does it make any sense to bench Sexson in favor of them?
Just from personal observation of Broussard’s limited playing time at first this year and without analyzing any numbers, I just don’t see him as a better defensive player than Sexson. He struggles with popups and has misplayed at least two foulballs this year, made a terrible throw to home from first when Sheffield broke for the plate, and doesn’t scoop bad throws as well as Sexson does. Sexson’s range may be terrible but I don’t know that Broussard’s is much better.
Vidro just has no lateral movement anymore and shouldn’t ever play the field. Ibanez was not good at first base, and after a season of running around the outfield, it’s hard to imagine him making that transition smoothly in a playoff chase. It’s an option for 2008, but not the rest of this year.
Broussard v. Sexson = Ford Pinto v. AMC Pacer.
Dude, the Pacer wins that every time. It’s one of my favourite cars of all time (the AMC Gremlin was even better).
Dave, you say Beltre is “solidly above average”. I was under the impression that he was near Gold Glove quality. Is his defense a bit overrated, then?
Jamie Burke for first base!
Count me in the group of those worrying that Lopez will pull a Carlos Guillen if we give up on him. It is tough watching him playing for a team going for a playoff spot though – his at bats are absolutely brutal.
If the Mariners have Lopez in their plans for the next few years, it might be a good idea organizationally (if such a thing is possible with our Mariners)…
…if they found someone with a compatible background who could 1) get Lopez through his sibling mourning period in a positive frame of mind (which he hasn’t allowed himself yet, but it all may hit him after the season’s over), 2) who could get Lopez on track with his off-season conditioning, and 3) who could advise Lopez about nutrition and sensible eating habits.
If all that can be done in a way that’s respectful and honest, and not overbearing or patronizing, of course…
I think that’s a poor strategy. Look, most of the baseball universe of hitters is right-handed. A park that totally hoses them means you now have to find LH hitting to get decent offensive performance at home, and let’s see, Raul represents the last decent LH hitter this farm system produced, and Clement’s about 10 years behind him, so it’s not like they grow on trees.
Someone lamented last night that we are haunted by corpses, the corpse in question being one Garret Anderson. It occured to me that what we are haunted by, in Safeco Field, are left handed power hitters who, even in their declining years, have a very short porch and can easily drop a ball in someone’s soup at the Hit It Here Cafe. Our roster has a grand total of two left handed hitters with any power, and only one (Ibanez) plays on a regular basis. It’s been like this for years. The team seemingly built a stadium for Left Handed Sock, and has utterly failed to staff up with that kind of hitter. No, they don’t grow on trees, but other teams have them. Why don’t we?
Sexson’s been bad enough for several years, by many metrics (and just watching him),
What, you mean you’re not a fan of the Richie Roll (wherein Sexson does a complete barrel roll to his right as the ball scoots under him on it’s way to the outfield)? I’ve never given much credit to the “firstbasemen should be left-handed” chestnut (myself being a right-handed former firstbaseman), but watching Sexson do summersault after summersault on grounders to his right makes me wonder if it ain’t at least a little bit true.
Please to be noting that Lopez at age 23 is ALREADY basically as good a hitter as Michael Young, age 30 is, once you take them out of their home parks
Yes, he’s 23!!! for crying out loud. Two years older than Felix. Giving up on him now would be a huge mistake. I agree with people who’re saying the M’s have other problems they need to fix first.
ah, Left Handed Sock. remember when they got Left Handed Sock last year?
As has been mentioned before on this blog, Safeco was built for Griffey, and he’s never been replaced.
think anyone would notice if we got Olerud a #44 jersey, and just ran him out to man 1st base?
I have this sickening feeling that after two more mediocre seasons J-Lo shall depart Seattle and find success elsewhere (a la Carlos Guillen).
As for next season, maybe we can have a two-man outfield – AJ in center-left, and Ichiro in center right – and platoon three guys (Sexson, Ibanez, Vidro) in two DH spots.
Qualification: “find success” = “flourish”
As for next season, maybe we can have a two-man outfield – AJ in center-left, and Ichiro in center right – and platoon three guys (Sexson, Ibanez, Vidro) in two DH spots.
Nice thought, but Ichiro doesn’t need a second outfielder.
[you're mistaken]
ESPN has Jim Caple writing about the M’s suprising success
#99– the Ms talked to Delgado, both side were interested, but Delgado wasn’t willing to sign until the end of the off-season; the Ms had holes to more quickly, so they agreed to part ways.
The Mariners didn’t pass on Delgado; they made Delgado an offer, but Delgado made it known that he was going to take his time weighing offers, and the Mariners decided they needed to make a decision sooner.
Dave- two questions: Is there a chance Jones doesn’t have a starting spot with the Mariners next year? That Raul just keeps trotting out to LF?
and
Any new information on the organization’s plans for Morrow, about whether they still see him as a future starter?
Thanks.
Trade Sexson (haha yeah right,) Lopez, and Vidro for Johan Santana!!! (or another comparable Elite pitcher)
then… we trade Willie Boom Boom, and Jeremy Reed for a 2nd baseman that wants to grow as a player.
-Ti
You can’t trade crap for gold.
The only thing you can get for crap is different crap.
yeah… i know… just rosterbating a little… sorry.
Okay. Well.. Wash your hands..
The Delgado talk reminded me that there was some murmuring about having Delgado play first and moving Sexson to left field. I don’t know how close that really was to happening, but the idea gives me The Shivers.
Even if he wanted to let the runner slide into his tag, shouldn’t he have kept the glove on the base instead of raising it to tag the runner’s chest? If he keeps the glove between the base and any part of the runner’s body, he’s out no matter how he dances, right?
(I realize it doesn’t matter either way, and I know Lopez is a plus defender, but I’m curious about what part of the play was specifically the mistake. More aggressive would help, but I suspect not simply guarding the bag was the main error. Yeah?)
Ms. v Ervin Santana.
Sorry, fat fingered.
Ms v. Ervin Santana.
Can you imagine Richie diving for a ball that first season? With his shoulder injury? Making him play the outfield could have ended his career.
I think the best left handed sock available this winter is Dunn (either as a FA or trade if the Reds pick up his option to trade him). Obviously, I doubt the Mariners will be looking for a LF, and the Reds have internal options, so I a trade for AJ or Wlad would be an option.
So, I wouldn’t expect the left handed sock the stadium was built to showcase to get any better.
I missed adding the word “doubt” in there. You can probably figure out where.
Putting Adam Dunn in LF in Seattle would greatly disrupt the universe, and cause the Mariners to not contend.
I guess I should have tossed “I’m absolutely not for this idea” in there. I was just merely saying he has the most left handed sock out of anyone available, and gave reasons why he wouldn’t be an option, even if the Mariners wanted to be dumb enough to trade for him (and, they probably are).
Dunn should either be converted to a 1B, or move to the AL where he can play out his days as a DH. He’s a big, stumbling ogre that never belonged in the outfield. Heck, why don’t we sign Dunn, and see if we can have three DHs in the line-up?
This is going to be a very exciting last month of the season.
The Mariners combine an average defense behind sub par pitch to contact starting pitchers with run support from overly aggressive extremely streaky offense closed out by a nails bullpen.
At any moment they could produce a 7 game winning or 7 game losing streak. Which could result in them running away with the AL west or plummeting below the Yankees in the Wild Card race. The M’s are a fun to watch edge of your seat team. I love it!
All that said.
What really ticks me off is that the “gritty” veterans like Ibanez, WFB and others act like they are the ones who got the team into this position. When in reality the bullpen carried the team for the first three or so months. I keep hearing talk about all the “gritty” come from behind victories the offense has produced this year. When in fact those come from behind victories were only possible because for the most part the opposing team only had 6 innings in which to score runs. So the M’s offense had limited success against decent starting pitchers and then teed on off the many weak bullpens in the league. Then the Freakin FO goes out and adds garbage to the teams greatest asset because they can’t come to terms with the fact that the young arms are getting the job done.
Plummeting below the Yankees? If things go especially wrong we could plumment below Toronto.
I’m not saying they will – I just think you’re underestimating the variance.
Oh, man, I want them to play Sexson one game in left field, for sheer comedy value.
Maybe in spring training next year, though, not in a playoff race!
117- I count 5 with Dunn. Ibanez, Sexson, Vidro should not be in the field at their positions and Broussard should barely be out there. Adding Dunn without clearing the roster first would be a disaster.
117- I count 5 with Dunn. Ibanez, Sexson, Vidro should not be in the field at their positions and Broussard should barely be out there. Adding Dunn without clearing the roster first would be a disaster.
Well, they could always set them out in Queen Ann with a “free to good home” sign. I’m sure you could manage to adopt out a couple of them.
Queen Anne, even. Bah.
huh?
I know how this is going to go. M’s get a 5 run first, then won’t be able to do much else. The M’s won’t stop the Angels the rest of the way. Final will be something like Angels 13, M’s 6. I want to be wrong, I’ll be here to the end and I’ll admit I guessed wrong if I am, but I’m usually good at this. If I’m right, giving up a dozen unanswered runs at home to the team you’re trying to catch will kill us, and here come the Yankees. Hold ‘em M’s.
We will look back at this game as the back-breaker loss for the year. Angels shut us down while they kept getting key hits at the plate, as a quality team will do. Had Guerrero not been thrown out at the plate to end the eighth, the score would have been much worse. M’s lose tomorrow and head back out on that grueling road trip while the Angels enjoy an easy home schedule, and we can add 2007 to the many disappointing Mariner seasons that should have gone better (1985, 1997, 2001, 2002 and 2003). All part of being long-suffering fans.