Anatomy of a losing streak
No real analysis required, so here’s some numbers instead. During the losing streak:
Offense: 216 PA, .262/.298/.332, .630 OPS, 19 runs scored (3.16 Runs per game)
Ichiro:.238/.273/.333
Vidro: .250/.308/.292 (.278/.328/.389 over 61 PA in his last 13 games – is he still on fire?)
Guillen: .208/.240/.250
Ibanez: .273/.360/.273
Beltre: .304/.320/.435
Sexson: .167/.214/.167
Johjima: .500/.500/.550 (9 singles, 1 double, no walks in 20 PA)
Lopez: .286/.286/.357
Betancourt: .222/.222/.333
Johjima is the only guy who hit at all the last six games, and even that was all singles. The two through six middle of the order hitters combined for as much power as you’d expect from a pitcher, but it’s not like Betancourt or Ichiro were on base much to be driven in anyway.
The bullpen issues have been covered, but let’s not overlook that the offense hasn’t really picked up their teammates either.
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Horrifying thought:
If I’m correct, everyone in that lineup bar Guillen is already locked up for next year. If the FO does what we expect, and lock up Guillen too, how exactly do we expect to see this team get better for 2008?
I wish this team would emphasize taking pitches and drawing walks (a la the Red Soxs), but short of a massive roster overhaul I guess we’re stuck with hacks who hack.
And here I was thinking Sexson couldn’t get any worse.
Since Broussard is in Macs doghouse, I suggest moving the lesser of two evils (Ibanez) to first and bring Jones into left. Jones does have .258/.303/.387 OPS .690 in his current 4 AB a week role. I would expect those numbers to jump higher if he had a chance to swing the bat everyday, which in his now 3 stints in MLB he has not had.
1: Jones in Left?*
*crosses fingers
2: I liked that you called them the “Red Soxs,” though probably unintentional, its a funny play on their name.
Shrug.
This team is streaky offensively. Aggressive batters who get on base through hits (and mostly singles at that) will go through periods like this—and the team will lose. Part and parcel of the way the team is built, and is utterly expected.
the way the pitching staff is assembled right now, the offense has to score 6+ runs a night to have a CHANCE to win…that didn’t happen last week, hence the losses…priority number one, even though everyone is railing right now about jones, sexson, vidro, and the terrible bullpen management, should be the starting rotation…that’s still the biggest weakness…
Maybe the September call ups can light another temporary fire under the offense. AJ’s addition sure made some waves.
BTW ESPN’s Rob Neyer is calling out Baker’s rant about Mac still “feeling his way” and links to USSM as the counterpoint agrument.
I’m glad to see someone reads my posts!! {grin}
In the earlier discussion, I commented that the hitting was more to blame than pitching for the most recent losing streak. Everyone just disappeared!
I haven’t been sold on Guillen yet. He’s got some good numbers but it seems his hitting has disappeared in critical games.
Oh…and you left out recognition that BELTRE has hit at least decently during the losing streak.
9: Link please…
Rob Neyer Blog ESPN Insider Subscription Needed
How dumb do you have to be to send Sexson out there again and again and again and again and again with this kind of production? It’s one thing to ride the Ibanez train when the guy’s on a legitimate tear or chase Vidro’s .315/.315/.315 pipe dream season, but this went beyond ridiculous clear back in the middle of June.
Just think, Sexson could be a big giant hole of suckitude in the Tigers lineup right now, and he could be THEIR $14 million albatross next year. But nooooooooo!
Here’s to hoping B2 hits a handful of dingers and forces his way into the lineup while Richie’s nursing his sore hammy.
12: It’s a ESPN Insider Blog entry here it is though if you have a subscription.
http://tinyurl.com/2v79r2
Wow, guess I was a bit late on the trigger….
My business partner’s favorite line is:
Q: What is the definition of insanity?
A: Doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
I guess we can assume McLaren in mentally insane.
The Neyer thing is in the free part of the blog, so you don’t need to be a subscriber.
19: Ahh, didn’t realize that either because I’m usually logged in. lol
oh ok.
I love this part from Neyer’s Blog in response to Baker:
I think that is what has everyone up in arms more than anything else.
18: thanks…..us po’ fans can’t afford the wisdom behind the paywall.
The wisdom of Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips is indeed priceless.
Regarding Sexson:
A big part of USSM is using statistical analysis– not qualitative measures of “hot” or “cold”– to gauge a player’s expected output.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m as pessimistic as they come. It just seems that with our swelling frustration we’ve settled on a negative bias– That is, “regression to the mean” can only bring hot players down (excepting, of course, AJ).
Now, I’m going to ask that you all suspend your vitrolic hate of Sexson for a moment. Regardless of how many terrible at-bats he’s put together this year, his season numbers are far, far below his career average. He’s a streaky player (as are most power hitters), but we’ve already established via Raul, Beltre, and AJ that there’s little predictive value in streaks. So where do we draw the line? Is there any numerical way to show that Sexson shouldn’t be playing?
At the same time, Richie’s getting older. Old age can and often will bring players down and keep them down.
I thought Beltre drew more walks than that.
5 months and over 400 AB’s is not a streak, hot or cold. It is a legitimate enough sample size to say there has been a step shift in skills.
Vidro: .250/.308/.292
Lopez: .286/.286/.357
Yeah, sit Lopez, he’s been hurting the team a ton. Play Vidro at 2B instead…
It is also a function of alternatives; even if Sexson is a victim of extended bad luck (e.g., his BAPIP is uncharacteristically low this year, likely having nothing to do with his skill set), when you have a very compelling alternative in BB on the bench, it is time for Richie to sit….
This losing streak — and this season — also seem to be characterized by bad defense. Given the construction of the offense (singles-hitting hackers), streakiness is likely. However, in looking at things like lessons to be learned or analyses of what the hell has happened, it seems to me that below average defense has compounded the bad pitching and the streaky offense. As I think about the Guillen extension, it seems to me that intelligent roster construction would include someone like Geoff Jenkins, or Aaron Rowand, or even Corey Patterson — highly skilled defensive outfielders (and preferably lefties) — much more so than Guillen. Guillen’s offense is basically just barely average, as is his defense in total — and if you look at something like the 2001 M’s, outfield defense and first-base defense was a central component, and for this year’s M’s, outfield and first-base defense have been below average to terrible. At the micro-level there are problems all over the place, but at the macro level, defense may be the biggest one of all….
Dave, do you think the 40-man gets shuffled and Clement gets the call? Seems like with Sexson out, he could see some time at 1st and maybe DH, since Mac still thinks that Vidro is allowed a glove.
Gomez, Richie’s only 32. Most power hitters thrive in their early thirties. I don’t disgree that old age can bring players down, but is that what we’re seeing with Richie?
And Doc Baseball, I’m not sure I agree with you on a statistical basis. Sure, Richie’s ABs look uglier than ever, but his numbers don’t exactly signal the end of his career. Let’s compare Sexson to other power hitters:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=255&position=DH&page=0&type=full
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=409&position=DH&page=0&type=full
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=255&position=DH&page=0&type=full
Just a few off the top of my head. There are plenty of dramatic shifts in OPS that don’t seem to predict the next season. Of course, there’s no way to quantify the effects of injuries based on these stats, so my argument is admittedly weak here.
Jones in LF today.
No, really…
As I mentioned in #28, I would not strongly argue that Richie’s decline definitively signals a downshift in skills. His BAPIP is at a near-all-time low, which probably reflects extended bad luck. However, his line drive % has been dropping for 3 straight years, as has his slugging; that is troubling. And with BB on the bench, there is no reason to keep riding Richie so hard
Doc-
I wouldn’t say that Jose Guillen has barely average defense when he has a 120 OPS+ this year and that falls in line with his career after the age of 27.
It’s not a huge leap of faith to assume that he remains an above average hitter for the next 2-3 years. I’m sure Dave will cover his view on Guillens career arc.
Sweet, Jones in left. Vidro is at second, but with Washburn on the mound, beefing up the outfield D isn’t a bad idea. Blind squirrel, nut.
I totally agree that the blame can’t be placed solely on the pitching game. If you take out the poor (understatement) decisions made in the bullpen over the past week and just look at the numbers you’ll see:
—–PITCHING—–
Past 7 Games k/9: 5.93 Season K/9: 6.3
6% Drop
Past 7 Games bb/9: 2 Season BB/9: 1.9
5% Drop
Past 7 Game Hr/9: 1.2 Season Hr/9: .88
36% Drop! (obviously small sample size, but HRs allowed often have luck involved)
My thought on the pitching (just looking at the numbers): A little lower performance recently, but also worse luck.
—–Hitting——
Past 7 Games OPS: .664 Season OPS: .764
13% Drop!
Past 7 Games K/BB: 41-10 (4.1 Ks/BB) Season K/BB: 688-323 (2.1 Ks/BB)
51% Drop!
Past 7 Games XBH%: 22.7% Season XBH%: 28.4%
20% Drop!
Result: The M’s pitching (bullpen particularly) is taking the blame off the hitters by blowing games that they shouldn’t be in, in the first place.
Will the hitters wake up against the Blue Jays? The mariners are hitting a great .232/.299/.284 against the Blue Jays in 6 games this year… uh oh
I wouldn’t say that Jose Guillen has barely average defense
I’m assuming you mean “offense” — and sure Jose has had a nice year — especially given RH in Safeco — but his career OPS is precisely average, last year it was well below average, and even if you only look at his last 3-4 healthy years and grant that he is a 120 OPS + guy for the next 2 years — you could argue that both Rowand and Jenkins are also that good offensively and both are far superior defensively. All I was saying is that in assessing both this losing streak and this team ll year, i think bad defense has been a key factor, and as I look to get better next year, I think outfield defense (given Safeco and our pitching) should be weighted quite heavily.
Re: Vidro streakiness.
With all the recent talk about hot and cold streaks, i thought it might be useful to figure out how to visualize performance over time. I don’t know if this is the best way, but a I just plotted up a moving seven day average of Vidro’s season. It takes out some of the randomness of single games, and doesn’t do any cherry picking of good or bad periods.
Interesting, as his performance has looked rather cyclic this year, and he’s headed for the trough right now. Anyway, see what you guys think. I’m going to plot up some other guys to see what their variance is like.
Good news: Adam starting two days in a row
Bad news: Lopez not starting two days in a row and three of the last four.
I guess I’m happy, but I’m worried that Lopez will be another Carlos Guillen. I’m afraid the Mariners will give him away for a futility infielder like Ramon Santiago and that with a better coaching staff, Lopez will improve drastically.
I thought this was pretty funny. From a chat with Keith Law (MLB scout who works for ESPN) Not just us locals who are confused with Rick White.
Adam Jones (Seattle): Yo Gally! Why am I not getting more playing time? I produce evertime I’m out there..Do you think Coach Mclaren has got what it takes? P.s. Richie says he’ll be milking this injury…
Keith Law: McLaren’s bullpen follies are reminding me of Hargrove’s (and Perlozzo’s). What is his obsession with Rick White? Anyway, no idea why they’re not playing Jones every day. Glad to see he HR’d last night – maybe that will change their minds.
Baker’s got the September call-up list posted.
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/
Jones in left!
Thank God, I was worried we wouldn’t see John Parrish in a Mariner uniform again.
Is there a better righty/lefty combo out the bullpen in baseball right now than John Parrish and Rick White? I defy anybody to come up with one.
“Losing, is a disease” — The Natural.
May our pitching staff not suck, and our offensive find its spark. *clink*
CF Ichiro
2B Jose Vidro
RF Jose Guillen
DH Raul Ibanez
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Ben Broussard
C Kenji Johjima
LF Adam Jones
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
Substitute Lopez for Vidro, and don’t quibble about batting order and today’s lineup is the best this team as it is constructed can do against a RHP
Johjima is the only guy who hit at all the last six games, and even that was all singles.
Not to be picky, but Joh had a big double yesterday in the seventh, helping the Ms take the lead.
43:
I used to think Mike Stanton and Jeff Nelson had that title when they were the duo with the Yankees now but now…. ;D
45- This is the best if can give against a RHP not looking at fielding. But the outfield is set up how it should for Washburn. McLaren might have started reading USSM and figured out half of the equation. So “good” job Mac!
More players up – Sexson and Guillen.
It’s odd how they all seem to have a roughly monthly pattern (avoids inserting obvious joke here).
This is the best if can give against a RHP not looking at fielding
Let’s hope small sample size luck works in M’s favor — no grounders to second, and turbo rips some shots and stays awake on the bases….
McLaren wanted to give Ibanez a day off, so he decided to do it when 1) they were playing on turf and 2) when Washburn was pitching.
Good job. Now it’s up to the club to win today which gives McLaren some leverage to make some changes.
Richie’s only 32. Most power hitters thrive in their early thirties.
You might want to take another look at that. Sexson’s list of comparables is an elephant graveyard of power hitters whose careers as effective everyday players abruptly ended in their early 30s:
Jose Canseco
Dale Murphy
Cecil Fielder
Frank Howard
Jay Buhner
Greg Luzinski
Unlike Sexson, Frank Thomas and Jim Thome had hitting skills other than power that helped them age relatively well. Thomas has a career batting average of .303 and has walked more than he has struck out — 17.1 BB%/16.9 K%. Thome is a career .281 hitter who has balanced his high K rate with a better BB rate than Thomas — 17.6 BB%/29.9 K%. Sexson is a career .264 hitter with a 10.5 BB%/26.4 K%.
For players with Sexson’s skill set, a career ending at 33 is the norm, not the exception.
49 – Thanks, Dave for the work. Interesting patterns.
I think you have to have Vidro at 2b. Lopez has been a black hole offensively for months now. He’s clearly better defensively but he’s been given a free pass here for too long. Of course the Mariners should not give up on him. But for now, the Mariners cannot afford his bat in the lineup when Washburn or Weaver are pitching, at least.
Grizz @52 —
Interesting post, worth looking at some more. BaseballReference.com has this list of comparables at this stage of Sexson’s career:
Mo Vaughn (abrupt decline in performance at 31)
Tino Martinez (peaked from 27-30, but remained above average through 37)
Fred McGriff (some big years at ages 35, 37, 38)
Ryan Klesko (big drop at 31)
Willie Stargell (aged nicely, with big years out to 39)
Mark McGwire (after big peak, stayed above average through age 36)
Lee May (marked decline after age 30)
Danny Tartabull (crashed at age 31)
Gil Hodges (good years at ages 33 and 35)
Cecil Fielder (huge peak at 26, average from 30 to 33, declined badly after that)
I’m not sure any of this proves one way or the other whether Richie is toast, but given the stage of the season we’re at, I no longer support trotting him out there every day in the hopes of another late season surge. Straight platoon please, to be revisited if and only if he starts crushing lefties.
For the players who remained good into their mid-30s (Tino, McGriff, Stargell, McGwire, and Hodges), they all either hit for a significant higher average than Sexson, walked significantly more than Sexson, and/or struck out significantly less than Sexson.
56 – In essence, the guys with Richie Sexson-power that were able to keep their power levels decent, or age less rapidly, were guys who made decent contact. The guys that were really all or nothing just fell apart as soon as they lost a little bat speed as they had nothing to fall back upon.