Wild Card Leaders
M’s are .001 ahead of the Tigers in the wild card race. Huzzah.
Congratulations to Jose Vidro on your recent hot streak. Congratulations to Raul Ibanez on hitting home runs in back to back nights. Congratulations to the Orioles for being a disaster of a franchise.
I had a few interesting ideas kicking around for a post, but I’ll save them for another day, because I have a feeling that no matter what we put up, the comments are just going to turn into more of the same tired arguments that I just can’t have again without putting my head through a window. So, if you really have to talk about how awesome Vidro is or how chemistry is the secret ingredient to winning or how Adam Jones can’t help this team or how Ibanez’s defense isn’t that bad, knock yourself out down below. The rest of us – we’ll resume intelligent commentary another day.
Game 111, Mariners at Orioles
FELIX DAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY.
4:05
Felix versus some Guthrie guy. Whatever.
No Jones in the lineup! Yeah! We get Sexson! And Ibanez! Woooo!
Have you seen this man?
Have you seen this man?
If so, please contact the Mariners immediately, as they are needed for tonight’s game.
Pitcher Available
The M’s need a starting pitcher. David Wells is reportedly going to be designated for assignment by the Padres later today.
Wells: 2.4 BB/G, 4.6 K/G, 41.7% GB%, 4.78 xFIP
Ramirez: 3.2 BB/G, 3.3 K/G, 45.6% GB%, 5.41 xFIP
Even accounting for the change in leagues, Wells is obviously a far better pitcher than Ho-Ram. The Padres are dumping him because he’s posted a 14.04 ERA in his last 4 starts, but a huge amount of that is due to an insane batting average on balls in play. This is an obvious buy low situation, as the problems that have plagued him the last couple of weeks won’t continue at the same rate.
Wells wants to play on the west coast. He won’t cost much and he should make it through waivers. He’ll make the team better.
Make it happen, Bill.
Game 110, Mariners at Orioles
Weaver v Trachsel, 4:05, FSN.
Can we pretend Trachsel’s a left-hander for purposes of getting Jones into the lineup? Please?
Weekend in Seattle roundup
I have to be up in 5 1/2 hours to catch a flight back to the east coast, so this won’t be a comprehensive wrapup of everything that I saw the five days I was in town, but here’s a quick recap.
Thursday’s USSM/LL event in Tacoma was a lot of fun, and of course, a big thanks goes out to Bill Bavasi for spending over an hour of his time on a day off hanging out with us and answering almost every question we threw at him. Part of the reason he’s willing to keep doing this with us (this is the third time we’ve had Bavasi for a get together) is because the chats are off the record, so some of the stuff will just stay with the 45 people who were around for the Q&A, but he did give us some interesting answers about different things that I’m okay sharing – namely, that we’ve been totally wrong about Wladimir Balentien’s option status.
I’ve been telling anyone that will listen that he’s out of options after this year and would have to stick on the 25 man roster next spring, but that’s not true – he qualifies for the fourth year option exception, and if the Mariners don’t trade him this winter, they can send him back to Tacoma next spring. And yes, Bill confirmed that there is no chance whatsoever that they begin 2008 with two rookies in the outfield (as we’ve believed all along), so you can stop wishing for a Jones-Ichiro-Balentien outfield next year. It won’t happen.
There was also the great humor of watching the people arrive about 15 minutes before first pitch only to find Bavasi standing in their row blocking their seats. Having no idea who he was, they actually asked him to move, then proceeded to completely ignore what was going on around them. Hilarious.
The game in Cheney was fun, though I spent most of my time answering questions rather than intently watching Robert Rohrbaugh shut down the Memphis Redbirds. A couple of guys definitely got their $25 worth. As Devin noted, I should have charged by the hour. But I was happy to do it, and hope those guys enjoyed it as well.
The Friday night event up in Everett was just as enjoyable, though for totally different reasons. The pregame Q&A guest was Bob Fontaine, the Mariners scouting director, and we got a solid half hour of his time before the season ticket holders booted us from their seats. Bob was great, and if you were there, you could tell he really enjoyed it as well. We’re definitely going to have him back for another (longer) Q&A at some point in the future, because as Derek noted right after it ended, we could have picked his brain all night.
The Aquasox then treated us to a night of interesting events, from the monstrous home runs from Gregory (don’t call him Greg) Halman and Kalian Sams to the physical assault of Jeff Sullivan by a yellow inflatable bird. I won’t spoil you with the details, as I’m sure Jeff will provide his own account, but let’s just say that we got pretty close to having to break up a fight between a 6’5 20-something and a mascot wearing glasses full of compressed air.
Saturday night saw Derek, Jeff, Devin, and I hitting up the Mariners game at Safeco. Best story of the night, among many – during Beltre’s first at-bat, a six or seven year old kid starts an “O-ver-ra-ted” chant, which didn’t particularly endear himself to any of us, all dyed-in-the-wool Beltre fans. About twenty seconds later, Beltre deposited a Dice-K fastball into the center field seats. Needless to say, we didn’t let the aforementioned child off the hook without retribution, and it’s unlikely he’ll be casting aspersions at our third baseman any time soon.
I also got the pleasure of meeting a good number of the commenters from both here and Lookout Landing and enjoyed the company of many good people. All in all, it was a successful good trip to the Northwest, and if you missed out on either of the USSM/LL events, you should make a point to come to the next one. We do our best to make sure you guys get your monies worth, and I don’t know of too many other teams that get to regularly sit down with their GM and Scouting Director and ask them anything they’d like.
Ugh – less than 5 hours before I have to get up for a day of cross country flying. I’m glad the last five days were worth it.
Excessive Penalty Week
Hi all. Many people, in email or pulling me aside in person, have complained that the comment threads have really sucked lately, and they wish for the good old days, when… I’m not sure they were ever idyllic, but they weren’t this horrible. However, no one’s got any solutions (have a solution? email us! now! please!)
In the meantime, I’m already tired of dealing with the same OT thread-jackers and people being annoying over the last months. So I declare this Excessive Penalty Week, and consider this adequate warning.
On Boston and New York games
I hate going to the stadium and finding it packed with visiting fans. I hate sitting around people who don’t know anything about the M’s. As a general rule, I’ve found Red Sox and Yankee fans by far the drunkest, rudest, crowds. Every time I’ve been at an M’s game and seen some minor incident – brushing up against someone trying to pass through one of the concourse choke points, for instance – turn into rudeness/a fight challenge, it’s been when the M’s play one of those two teams, and the affronted, loud party’s decked out in the other team’s gears (and it’s a handful of times, so yes, maybe it’s entirely random)(it isn’t). I hate that there are people who’ve grown up in Seattle and are Red Sox fans, and if I had to explain that one, I’m not sure where’d I start.
But…
I love that it’s tense. I love that there are M’s fans who heckle the Red Sox fans, and they give it back. I love that the M’s fans feel compelled to counter-cheer, and applaud good plays even harder. I love that when they come to town, we get good games worth watching. I love that attending those games feels like it matters.
Playoff musings
I was looking at the standings after today’s game, and there’s something interesting afoot. The division races are pretty much locked: either Cleveland or Detroit will win the AL Central unless something dramatic happens: they’re both way better teams than Minnesota. The M’s could still catch the Angels, but skip that for a second.
In the wild card, the straight listings run:
Detroit 61-49, .555
Seattle 60-49, .550 -0.5
New York, 61-50, .550, -0.5
Minnesota 57-53, .518, -4
Detroit should really be “AL Central runner-up, .560 or so”. Whoever wants to win the wild card will likely have to put up a record that would win the AL Central.
Anyway, here’s the same race, but with expected win-losses based on runs scored and allowed (from mlb.com):
New York, 68-43
Detroit 61-49
Minnesota 57-53
Seattle 54-55
Obviously teams don’t get credit in the standings for how many games they should have won or lost: the only thing that matters from here on out is how well they play for the remaining games. But it’s hard to look at the Yankees, who started horribly and have played extremely well for months now, and wonder if there’s another team besides Detroit in that bunch that can keep up. The Yankees offense is putting up almost six runs a game (seriously — 660 runs, 111 games, 5.95 runs a game)(M’s are at 4.83). For all the abuse the pitching’s taken, it’s in the middle of the AL pack, and when you score six runs a game… yeah.
There’s the problem. With 50 games left to play, if the Yankees keep this up, they’ll win another thirty games. The Tigers/Indians can put that together, too, so the wild card question becomes “can the M’s keep up that pace?”
That’s tough. Which is why it may actually be easier for them to take the division. Really. Here’s their schedule against their potential competition for playoff spots:
August 27th: 3 game series against the Angels
August 30th: 1 game makeup in Cleveland
September 3rd: 3 games in New York
September 7th: 3 games in Detroit
September 20th: 4 games in LA
September 25th: 4 games against Cleveland
The Angels might be as good as Detroit/Cleveland, but there’s only one of them. The M’s get seven games against the Angels, and if they go in with a 3.5 game gap in the standings… that’s where the opportunity is.
This is why you can look at the postseason odds right now and see the M’s playoff chances through the division title are about four times better than the wild card. Many things have to break right for the M’s to see their wild card competition fall away, but the Angels… well, it pains me to say this after this week’s games, but I hope Boston hands them an even more embarrassing beating than we had to endure.
Game 109, Red Sox at Mariners
Batista vs Beckett, 1:05 pm.
Line-up today:
1. Ichiro, DH
2. Vidro, 2B
3. Guillen, RF
4. Broussard, 1B
5. Beltre, 3B
6. Ibanez, LF
7. Jones, CF
8. Burke, C
9. Betancourt, SS
There are a lot of things I could point out that don’t make any sense about that line-up, but I’m going to focus on the one that could kill the M’s today – Jose Vidro playing second base.
Jose Lopez has been a terrible hitter since April. He’s stopped hitting for power, still has a lousy approach at the plate, and hasn’t improved a lick since he came up from Tacoma 72 years ago. He’s frustrating to watch and a problem at the plate.
But here’s the deal – Jose Vidro was traded from the NL to the AL for a reason. He can’t play the field anymore. Never a great defender, he’s now the middle infield version of Adam Dunn. His knees are shot, his range is totally gone, and he’s a significant minus defensively. Even if you’re the worlds biggest Vidro fanboy, you have to be able to watch him fail to move on easy groundballs and realize “hey, that guy shouldn’t be paid to use a glove.”
Miguel Batista is on the mound. He’s a contact pitcher with groundball tendencies. He’s facing an offense that can put up runs in bunches. He’s opposed by a guy who will finish in the top ten in Cy Young voting. And to support him, we’ve given him the worst defensive left field alive (non-Manny division) and the worst defensive second baseman alive to hang out next to the below average right fielder and first baseman. This should go well.
The Mariners do not understand the value of defense or how to appropriately measure it. Sticking Jose Vidro at second base is yet another shining example of this organization’s inability to realize that catching the ball is a big part of run prevention.
On a day when you expect a lot of balls to be put in play, you make a bad defense even worse. This is the team we root for.
The value of outfield defense
After tonight’s game, I can’t help but feel that anyone who doesn’t think outfield defense isn’t important hasn’t been watching the M’s lately.
Also, given the Red Sox lineup, their performance against Washburn, why in the world do you bring in the relief version of Washburn to relieve Washburn?