Future Forty Update – End of Season
With the minor league seasons coming to a close, it’s time for our last monthly Future Forty update and a look back at the year that was in the farm system.
Big Steps Forward
Adam Jones – Really, I don’t think we need to say much more about AJ.
Carlos Triunfel – the best prospect in the system and one of the best alive proved he could hold his own at 17 years of age.
Wladimir Balentien – Refined the rough edges of his game, made better contact, and probably made himself prime trade bait.
Matt Tuiasasopo – Showed that he could actually drive the ball into the gaps, drastically improved approach at the plate, and re-established himself as a potential everyday major league player.
Solid Improvement
Michael Saunders – Turned athleticism into performance, though playing in High Desert certainly didn’t hurt.
Chris Tillman – Recovered from disastrous performances after promotion to California League, showed flashes of brilliance despite a general lack of command.
Kameron Mickolio – Added cut fastball, improved command, and went from interesting late-round steal to putting himself in contention for a bullpen spot in 2008.
Up and Down
Jeff Clement – had a few great months and a few terrible months, providing evidence to both his supporters and his critics. Still something of an enigma but continues to work hard.
Tony Butler – Arm and back problems led to reduced velocity and a couple stints on the DL, but when healthy, showed why he’s got as much upside as any arm in the system besides Felix.
Brandon Morrow – Showed a legit 98 MPH fastball that can overpower hitters at times, but also had very little idea where the ball was going or anything to complement the fastball. Move to rotation is likely going to include significant growing pains.
Greg Halman – Horrible in Wisconsin, but when shipped back to Everett, made big strides. It’s scary how much he looks like Alfonso Soriano when hitting, and while he won’t be that good, he’s got a similar skillset.
More Down Than Up
Alex Liddi – One of my favorite bats in the system, Liddi failed to make enough contact to do any damage to MWL pitchers and has a lot of adjustments to make. Still very talented and worth keeping an eye on.
Rob Johnson – Mariners still love his leadership and catching skills behind the plate – I remain convinced that he’ll never hit high level pitching.
Doug Salinas – Age is the main thing on his side, as he rarely topped 90 MPH and showed a couple of 62-68 MPH breaking balls that have no chance of getting real hitters out. Stuff did not match the hype.
Overall
You can’t categorize 2007 as anything other than a big win for the farm system. The top talents had successful seasons almost across the board, the best arms avoided surgery, and a few guys took steps up from interesting to legitimately intriguing. There’s no doubt that the organization has more young talent in it now than it has in any year during the Bavasi era, which has only seen significant improvement in minor league development since he took over as GM. Bob Engle, Bob Fontaine, and their staffs deserve every plaudit that can be thrown at them – the Mariners have a lot of talent on the way to Seattle.
However, that doesn’t mean everything is perfect. As an organization, they still fail in installing any kind of real approach to hitting, and the club continues to churn out a plethora of the exact same types of hitters they already have on hand. When you look at the major league line-up and see Adrian Beltre, Jose Guillen, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Kenji Johjima, you see five shades of the same thing – right handed, highly aggressive line drive pull hitters. When you look at Adam Jones, Wladimir Balentien, Carlos Triunfel, and Greg Halman you have (to differing degrees) four more right-handed, highly aggressive line drive pull hitters.
With a couple of exceptions, this is the kind of player the M’s are both developing and pursuing at the major league level, and while they’re valuable players and good prospects in their own right, it’s time for the organization to diversify. They have a park that harms right-handed pull hitters moreso than any other player type, but significantly rewards left-handed flyball power hitters. Jeff Clement is the only guy in the organization who fits that mold, and it’s not even a given that he’ll still be a Mariner past this coming offseason.
The M’s scouts are doing a great job of finding talent – now they just need to find different kinds of talent. But, make no mistake, the farm system is in good shape, and the Mariners have a significant quantity of high ceiling guys that could add real pieces to the major league roster in the next several years.
As always, feel free to use this thread for any questions you may have, and I’ll do my best to answer as many as I can.
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69 Responses to “Future Forty Update – End of Season”
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Oakland’s farm system is one of the worst in the league.
So at this point, how much of Beane’s Boy Genius GM aura was based on a handful of high picks that anyone could have made (Chavez, Mulder, Zito) and hitting on Tim Hudson in the sixth round?
Do the Mariners have any opportunity to move the high A affiliate away from High Desert for next season?
Billy Beane is a good GM. I don’t think he’s heads and shoulders above everyone else, like some of the aura around him puts him at, but he makes many shrewd moves. Durham, Cust, Gaudin, etc.
Though that is balanced with some terrible FA signings.
Do the Mariners want to move away from High Desert? I know they should, but are they aware that they should?
The Mariners are finding talent, but Bavasi inexplecibly just hasn’t been stupid enough yet to trade it all away for the likes of Paul Spoljaric, Mike Timlin, Terry Mulholland, and Heathcliff Slocumb like Woody Woodward did.
*Knocking on wood*
High Desert: The M’s signed a two-year contract with High Desert last offseason, so they are stuck there at least through next season.
Dave, Kuo-Hui Lo (288/368/419) had a decent year by Wisconsin standards. Is the problem that he cannot handle center and lacks the power for a corner? Does he project to add any power?
While the Ms didn’t pop off another signing for quite Triunfel’s dollar figure, they spent heavily again this year on Jhrmivy DeJesus and Gabriel Noriega. Any particular reason for leaving these two high upside guys off this year?
I grudgingly put Martinez and Triunfel on last years last at the prodding of a friend in the organization who assured me I wouldn’t regret it. In general, I try not to form opinions when I don’t have any information, and in this case, I don’t feel like I know enough about DeJesus or Noriega to justify a ranking. In almost every case, I’m going to omit people from the FF until they’ve made their U.S. debut.
So at this point, how much of Beane’s Boy Genius GM aura was based on a handful of high picks that anyone could have made (Chavez, Mulder, Zito) and hitting on Tim Hudson in the sixth round?
Really? We’re still beating that horse when he’s building quality rotations out of Dan Haren, Chad Gaudin, and Lenny DiNardo? Beane’s a terrific GM, and he’s succeeded many times since The Big Three left.
Do the Mariners want to move away from High Desert? I know they should, but are they aware that they should?
They don’t want to be there, but they have no problem telling their affiliates that they don’t care about wins and losses and their priority is development of these kids, so the minor league teams aren’t exactly lining up to have the M’s as their partner. It takes two to tango, and in the minors, the M’s are the ugly kid no one wants to dance with.
Dave,
Too bad Bavasi gave Cabrera away for Perez in 2006. If not, you could have pointed to Cabrera as the one hitter in the Mariners’ organization who wasn’t following the Mariner mold of agressive right hand hitters.
They also don’t stock their minor league teams with the kind of lumbering sluggers that hang around every league, putting up ridiculous numbers and helping their teams win games.
Does that include the American League? 🙂
Seriously, why do you think Clement is destined elsewhere? Is some other organization more capable of developing his talent? If he’s the best left-handed power hitter we have to fit a park that rewards left-handed power hitters, why wouldn’t we keep him?
The Mariners are finding talent, but Bavasi inexplecibly just hasn’t been stupid enough yet to trade it all away for the likes of Paul Spoljaric, Mike Timlin, Terry Mulholland, and Heathcliff Slocumb like Woody Woodward did.
Raffy Soriano says “Hi”.
Really? We’re still beating that horse when he’s building quality rotations out of Dan Haren, Chad Gaudin, and Lenny DiNardo? Beane’s a terrific GM, and he’s succeeded many times since The Big Three left.
Sorry, question not clear. I’m not disputing that he’s an excellent GM. However:
–while Haren’s a great pitcher — and Harden would be if he could stay healthy — Gaudin and DiNardo aren’t up to the level of Mulder and Zito, and so they don’t have the steamroller rotation anymore;
–their offense has collapsed;
–they’re thin in the minors, lacking the elite prospects they would need to make major improvements; and thus
–they aren’t “95 wins on a shoestring” anymore. Granted all of Beane’s ability, and granted that some of it’s bad fortune (Harden, especially), the fact remains that he wasn’t able to keep the A’s performing at the level they reached when guys like Hudson, Mulder, Zito and Tejada were at their peak in Oakland, and his organization hasn’t been able to identify and develop prospects who could replace their performance. So, excellent GM, sure; but as good as the press clippings he used to generate?
Sure our systems pretty good, but how much better would it be with Asdrubal? I’d give them back Eddie. Yeah, he’s a fine analyst, but I think infielders are more helpful to a team. Hell, I’d even give them back Ben.
Ben? How about Sexson?
How bout Andrew Barb? He sure Ks a lot of guys, but he seems awful old to still be in Low A. What’s that all about?
62: thanks, that was a good belly laugh.
I disagree with the idea that you can’t aggressively push players through your minor leagues AND have some semblance of winning (or at least competitive) minor league ballclubs. I don’t think it’s either-or. Again, As. Even Angels. Routinely successful minor league teams AND churning out major league talent.
Awww no love for Williamson or Wild? I thought their string of superior performances towards the end of the year would atleast raise an eyebrow or two.
Number 47 sounded kinda pissed, but I think some of that makes sense. Do you think there is much reason to try to win in the minors and add a bunch of thirty year olds that’ll never make it? It doesn’t sound super worth while to me.
“Lincecum, the most overhyped prospect in the history of time? Very possible.
If everyone who loves Tim Lincecum and is convinecd that he’s the next great HOF pitcher could all just go move into a community without internet acccess together, that’d be awesome. Thanks.”
Typical Lincecum hater. I remember watching him in the state semis his senior year in high school scouts were doubting him then cause of his unorthodox delivery. He mowed down hitters in college at an unreal rate. Then teams pass him in the draft. He keeps mowing down hitters. Now in the big leagues his 2nd year in professional ball. Averaging over 9/ ks a game. Almost a 3-1 K:BB. An ERA that has been below 4 for most of the year all in his first season.
Now if all the Lincecum haters can go to an island where they all can vent there hatred and jealousy of a born freak that would be nice
60
Asdrubal says “‘Sup?” too.