Random Playoff Thoughts
Some disjointed musings from the first couple of days of playoff baseball.
1. The starting pitchers of games 1 and 2 so far: Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jeff Francis, Cole Hamels, Carlos Zambrano, Brandon Webb, Franklin Morales, Kyle Kendrick, C.C. Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, Doug Davis, Ted Lilly.
Davis and Lilly are both 31 years old. Everyone else is under 30, and a third of the group are under 25.
When push comes to shove, the MLB managers who found themselves in the playoffs will take talent over experience every single time. Let’s hope John McLaren’s taking notes.
2. I’m rooting for the Indians to win it all, and I’m rooting for Asdrubal Cabrera to have a good long career, but still, every time he does something like hit a fastball 400 feet in the playoffs, there’s a part of me that wants to throw something. Thanks Bill.
3. How can anyone watch last night’s game and still think Derek Jeter isn’t the worst defensive shortstop in the American League? There were a couple of balls that are routine plays for most shortstops that he didn’t come within three feet of. That Chien-Ming Wang has been able to achieve any real success with Jeter behind him is remarkable.
4. Chip Caray showed off some righteous indignation last night when Derek Jeter didn’t lay a bunt down with runners at 1st and 2nd and nobody out trailing by two, calling this “an automatic bunt situation” in the National League. He completely failed to grasp the fact that Derek Jeter isn’t Mark Lemke, and bunting with a hitter of his caliber is rarely a good idea. Bobby Abreu followed Jeter’s non bunt with an RBI double, further showing how bad an idea bunting would have been in that situation, especially for the Yankees.
Then, a few innings later, when Chien-Ming Wang is getting rocked by the Indians as they turn the game into a blowout, Carey actually outright states that the momentum of the game turned when Jeter decided not to bunt, and that perhaps if he had laid one down, the Yankees would still be winning.
They gave up 12 runs, including four homers, and Chip Carey wants fans to believe that the Yankees lost because Derek Jeter didn’t bunt right before Bobby Abreu doubled down the left field line, rendering any theoretical bunt pointless. There’s nothing like ignoring reality to try to drive home an agenda, eh Chip? Maybe learn something about baseball strategy before you try to lecture fans who know more about the game than you do.
5. Has anyone ever stopped to think that if Ryan Howard is really as good as the media told us he was last year, and Jimmy Rollins is really as good as the media is telling us this year, why is Chase Utley still obviously the best player on that Phillies team?
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Jeter is obviously the best shortstop in the American League. Just look at the gold gloves he’s piling up. Heh.
And take a look at today’s Game 2 pitchers:
Fausto Carmona – Age 23
Dice K – 27
Escobar – 32
Pettite – ok, he’s old
Tomorrow, both Rich Hill and Ubaldo Jimenez are also younger pitchers.
I agree with Carey. Jeter should have put down that 10-run bunt and won the game for them, he is just playing selfish!
Also what was the site that showed the average age of each team? I am struggling to find it.
It’s pretty dumb that Rollins is getting so much MVP hype. Even with the time he missed, Utley’s offensive and defensive contributions were far above Rollins’, and Howard’s for that matter.
Regarding Rollins:
If he wins the MVP, it’ll be tragic. He led the league in “outs made” (with one of the top 20 seasons ever) after losing out in that category in 2006 to the exceptional Juan Pierre.
But, he’s an exciting sparkplug. Sorta like WFB, but with more talent.
See, I don’t mind the Asdrubal Cabrera trade so much. At the time, he didn’t have any place to play, and while I agree that Bavasi could’ve gotten better talent in return, the concept of Benuardo at DH at least demonstrated an understanding of platoon splits.
Small victories.
Jeter, and Rollins, if he wins the MVP, are perfect evidence as to why baseball writers, in general, should not be voting on these awards.
They mean more now to more people than they did when the BBWAA was handed the responsibility of choosing the winners,and it’s clear they don’t truly understand.
I think each organization should designate two voters that cannot vote for their own players and that should at least be mixed in with a selected media vote.
I love Mark Lemke.
[Piniella]
Ahhhh, see that’s why Dave and all you guys are amateurs and those guys are paid professionals: Utley has 5 K’s in these playoffs and you just have to learn that those are simply not productive outs.
And didn’t you hear Dick Stockton explaining that it was Doug Davis’s sac bunt to move runners from 1st and 2nd to 2nd & 3rd in front of Chris Young that was the key to that inning? CY’s three-run home run just followed naturally due to that bunt.
Now maybe you can understand why Jetes should have gotten his bunt down….
Didn’t Chip Cary annouce some games for the Mariners back in the days. I thought he was horrible back then also. I beleive it was only for a year back when Rizz went to Detroit.
The Utley thing isn’t clear because the media beats the Rollins 20-20-20 thing and the Howard Hits HRs thing to death. His production is all but ignored.
Didn’t know we couldn’t mention the P word around here, sorry.
To sum up my post above there are ex Mariners all over the playoffs and most are doing well. Not you Joe Table and another guy who I can’t remember right now.
wonder if Bill has those same impulses to toss things about
after the games were all over, someone on ESPN radio was speculating just how the NY fans were going to manage to make the loss Alex’ fault…
think?
Any day where the yankees get spanked is a great day. Go Indians! Beyond that, I don’t really care. Would be great to see the Cubbies actually get to a WS again, but I doubt that’ll happen.
13 – you can use the P word, you just better be able to spell it korektlee.
but don’t designate the two organizational guys who fill out the Gold Glove ballots.
16- Oh, Thanks. I’m a dumbass. I was trying to eat and type at the same time.
Well, because Utley missed some time so his totals for the season appear down, of course.
The fact that the contributions of a 2B who plays above-average defense with a .976 OPS have been completely marginalized is incomprehensible to me. Even with the time he missed there is no way Utley should finish lower than 2nd in the MVP voting.
If your thinking that you haven’t seen an awful interview in awhile Alyssa Milano can help you out at MLB.com hot corner. Yikes.
I think age isn’t the issue – it’s all talent. TOK, it’s 99% talent. Even the M’s have Felix as their #1 pitcher.
The fact is, by the time they hit 30, most players have sorted themselves into Stars, not-stars, and fodder.
20: hear, hear. The really special thing about Utley is his production for the position. Compared to, say, the gap between A-Rod and David Wright (also works for basically any other position on the field), the drop-off from Utley to the 2nd-best 2B in baseball is light years.
Baker & Thiel are discussing the Ms on KJR at the moment.
kinda depressing.
The Yankees best chance in this series was to beat Sabathia with Wang on the mound. The rest of their rotation is just too shaky, and now they’re up against Fausto, the #1 vote on my Cy Young ballot (I had Sabathia second).
Speaking of ballots, this Rollins thing irritates me. You can’t be the MVP of the league if you’re not the MVP on your own team. Utley is on my MVP ballot this year. Not Rollins. It’s usually just the AL that screws this up this badly.
I agree with Dave I think the Indians have what it will take to win it all. Shapiro did a great job rebuilding the franchise, and was able to snag a good prospect for the aging Eduardo Perez (pretty much free) out of the Mariners’ farm.
The Phils have very good players, I agree, but It seems like the Rockies are really hot now, and going back to Colorado for game 3, it seems like they have it in the bag. But you never know with baseball. Im just wondering, how does Jose Mesa keep finding work?
Like Dave said, I really hope Mac is taking note to this, and to start youngsters without the name Feriabend next year. Or atleast try them out if the gritty knowledgeable vets are underperforming. Probably askng for too much but I can hope?
Speaking of Mac, I don’t really pay much attention to the NL, how has Lou Piniella done with the starting line ups for the cubs? Does he throw out the vets, even if they arent performing, or does he gives youngsters a chance?
BTW I meant Feriabend next year. Dont want to start an arguement or anything. I dont think he sucks, and he has a sweet pick off move, but I dont think he is ready to be a major leaguer yet. And Dave or anyone else, I am a farely newcomer, joining last july, so where was Asdrubal Cabrera ranked as far as prospects go back when he was in the Mariners’ system? Did you know he was destined to be good, or did he slip through the cracks so to speak?
I think Lou has done a good job with the younger players on the Cubs, except for the whole Felix Pie thing (although I “think” Jones grades out well defensively in center).
At the very least, Loui will play a young guy and stick with them if they show they can play.
He seems to be getting better with the young pitchers too, except for the Steve Traschel over Sean Marshall fetish.
Do you guys think David Wright should be the NL MVP? I do. He had an atrocious April and came back to have one of the best seasons of any Met ever, besides the 2006 Carlos Beltran. I hate how he is immediately removed from MVP consideration because he failed to prevent the Mets’ collapse.
He led the league in Win Shares.
His defense is very good.
[Niehaus]
I guess I don’t get all the handwringing re Rollins. Utley being the best player on the team and Utley being far and away the better MVP candidate on the team are two different things, given the time Utley missed.
Using BP’s metrics, Utley had a 68.8 VORP to Rollins’s 66.1. But Rollins rates better defensively in both Win Shares and BP’s FRAA formula, had five more Runs Created and posted a higher WARP3 than Utley. They both earned 28 Win Shares.
That looks like almost a dead heat to me, in terms of MVP credentials. Nothing to get too worked up about either way, IMO. If you want to argue about Utley being far better on a per PA basis, I could see that. But Rollins amassed 165 more PA appearances. For MVP purposes, that means something.
More media silliness, from today’s Seattle P-I.
Wang gets pounded, Ohlendorf emulates kerosene, Jeter is 0-4 with dreadful defense (as noted above), Matsui and Posada and Melky all go 0-4 as well.
And the P-I’s headline is “A-Rod Powerless in Loss”. He was 0-2 with two walks.
Yes, indeed, it’s A-Rod’s failure that deserves the most attention (even though he was one of only 3 Yankees to get on base twice).
FRAA sucks. Win Shares sucks.
VORP isn’t much better.
Yeah for Win Shares and FRAA!
28: David Wright should get the NL MVP, and no one else is particularly close.
See, I don’t mind the Asdrubal Cabrera trade so much. At the time, he didn’t have any place to play, and while I agree that Bavasi could’ve gotten better talent in return, the concept of Benuardo at DH at least demonstrated an understanding of platoon splits.
Small victories.
Except that Bavasi did that while having (and now still has) a coach who refused to use platoons. Trading for players that don’t get used is bad enough; trading away valuable pieces for players your coach is philosophically opposed to using is simply foolhardy. I don’t know what to call it (organizational schizophrenia? Betriebsblindheit?) but a “small victory” it is not.
I think each organization should designate two voters that cannot vote for their own players and that should at least be mixed in with a selected media vote.
I’m not sure who these people would be in “each organization” but if you’re talking about players I don’t think you should expect the quality of the vote to improve. These are people, after all, who think the most important statistical measure of a player is RBIs.
And the P-I’s headline is “A-Rod Powerless in Loss”.
A-Rod absolutely destroyed the baseball in April, and the Yankees finished the month 9-14. And yet the media still insist that A-Rod needs to carry the Yankees in the playoffs. Because he’s clearly the problem.
It’d be great to be the mainstream media. You don’t really ever have to do anything, do you?
Right, but that failure should be assigned to Hargrove, not to Bavasi. The idea of creating the two-headed DH monster was a sound one, and it wasn’t Bavasi’s fault that it didn’t get implemented well.
Now, could a smarter GM have gotten more for Cabrera? Probably. But I can’t bash on the organization too much for dealing from what appeared to be a position of surplus at the time.
There wasn’t any way to tell at that point that Lopez was going to go into a tailspin, so Cabrera had nowhere to play and flipping him for a piece that could make the team better made sense.
#35 Actually, Hargrove was fine using platoons once they got Eduardo Perez (in late June ‘06) because Carl Everett wasn’t hitting well against lefties. What Grover couldn’t see was that Everett was also bad against righties too. From the time that Perez was acquired in late June to the time that Broussard was acquired in late July (and Everett released), Perez didn’t get even one start against a right-hander. What a great trade — a starting second baseman for a guy we started once every five days for three months…
Keeping Bavasi this winter very well could be the death knell for this franchise. If he’s allowed to trade our young talent (Like Clement, Balentien and possibly Jones) away for washed up journeymen, we’re doomed.
26 – Cabrera cracked BA’s top 10 M’s ’spects in 2005, I think, and was #3 or 4 on John Sickels 2006 list.
He didn’t slip through the cracks or anything- he was in AAA at 20, after all, and had a sterling defensive reputation. He was also a very patient hitter. He’d hit for gap power in the M’s system and I think many many people saw that as a fluke – it wasn’t.
Even M’s fans tended to think he was a slap hitter despite stats that said otherwise. If he didn’t LOOK so scrawny, we probably would’ve got more for him…
re: 37 Bavasi doesn’t get off that easily. Either he’s the type of GM that dictates to his manager what players to play (AKA Beane) or he’s the type of GM that needs to get players that fit with his current managers strategy.
In this case he did neither. He assembled a platoon that was never used effectively and traded away a future MLB player to get it.
I want to see the Indians in the WS not only because they aren’t the BoSox/Angels/Yankees but because if this begins a long Indian reign at the top of the AL it may force certain other hidebound organizations (particularly those that have openly dismissed the Indians’ model in the past) to make some long-overdue changes.
However, since the Rockies have voted a full share to Mike Coolbaugh’s widow, I want to see them win it all. (Plus I always cheer for the team that has never been, or never won, both for that reason alone and also to build up Karmic merit for M’s).
Is there anything that doesn’t suck? Does Runs Created suck?
Is there a measure of individual defense that doesn’t suck?
Trading Cabrera was fine.
As was trading Soriano.
And Carlos Guillen.
And Snelling.
And Torrealba.
And Matt Thornton.
The problem is clearly who he got in return.
Every GM has a few trades where they get the short end.
But can anyone name one single trade Bavasi has made that at the time of the trade anyone here thought was smart? Or even that has turned out to be a net positive in hindsight?
Getting fleeced on every single trade implies something.
Dave having heartburn after every Cabrera contribution is not an isolated problem.
Bashing the organization for trading from surplus may not be in order.
Bashing them for doing it so poorly is.
And that is not even to mention free agent signings….
#40. Exactly.
39-
Cabrera doesn’t look scrawny, and didn’t the year he got traded. Not at all. He has a compact build that screams gap power.
Jeff Dominguez, now THERE’s scrawny.
Cabrera was a very highly regarded prospect, both here and throughout baseball. Essentially everyone predicted he would be a legit ML player
The Garcia trade was mostly well-received. Dave used to think Reed had a lot of potential, Morse has been sporadically productive, and Olivo is still a starting catcher in the majors (albeit for the Marlins).
At the time, the Garcia trade looked like a complete steal. Reed was immediately our center fielder of the future, and Morse and Olivo were potential nice pieces.
There wasn’t really any way to see that both Reed and Olivo would flame out the way they did.
And, like I said in my post, you can reasonably say that Bavasi should’ve gotten a better return for Cabrera, and I’ll agree with you.
But at the time, he looked like a player without a future with the M’s, so the base concept of trading him made sense.
One thing about the Indians, based on what we saw of them against the M’s this year: they better hope they are wining every game by more than four runs. I would not be comfortable going to Borowski with a one-run lead in the 9th, especially against the Yankees.
But hey, did you see Wedge has a higher post-season winning % than Torre? Only Melvin’s is better.
I agree that the Garcia trade is his best….
At the time, the thought was it was “OK”.
And it turned out Freddy went 40-21 and helped lead the White Sox to a WS championship.
And the M’s turned out to end up with 2 minor leaguers and a 600 OPS catcher who … he traded for … ummm nothing.
And that’s the best he’s done….
And what is Freddy doing today to help the Phillies in their postseason dreams? Oh, that’s right. You could argue that the M’s extracted maximum value from him as a pitcher — the “burning match” theory — before getting maximum value from him as a trade piece (after he’d outlived his welcome in other ways, particularly with an impressionable Felix on the way up).
In an article about the hard job facing the Phillies tomorrow Jamie has some interesting things to say about how Coors plays– I have no idea how it correlates to park adjustment stats…
Flipping Dave Hansen for Huber was a good trade by Bavasi.
I really hate the “he had no place to play here” thing. I understand that it is sometimes true, but…
1. Don’t do it until you need to, make sure it’s absolutely clear that no one is changing positions, or getting injured, etc.
2. Just because he’s “extra” to you, doesn’t mean you should give the other team a discount. This is isn’t the buffet at The Palms. “You gonna eat that? No, couldn’t eat another bite, help yourself.”
3. And, for the love of god, make sure you are not trading away the better half of the logjam.
But to address those points in order (John in L.A. incase someone posts before I hit submit):
1) There’s no way you’ll ever be able to tell that. You have to make your best guess as to whether a player will continue to be surplus at a position, or else you’ll waste the opportunity to leverage talent you don’t need for talent you do need. At the time, Cabrera being excess talent was a good call, and despite Lopez’s recent struggles, I still would say they did the right thing with the information they had at the time.
2) I agree with you regarding this, but you also have to realize that the team you’re trading with will know that the talent you’re offering is talent you don’t have a place to play, so they’ll factor that into what they offer in return. A smarter GM than Bavasi probably would’ve gotten better talent in return for Cabrera, but nobody’s swapping Santana for Cabrera straight up.
3) Again, at the time, Lopez looked like he would be the better player. I really, really don’t understand why people are so willing to throw him under the bus based on a bad season and a half at such a young age, especially when he had a huge family tragedy AND was harmed by bad coaching from Hargrove.
As far as Freddy Garcia’s value; you’re going to have to give me a lot better evidence than a won-loss record to convince me that the M’s did badly in that trade.
From everything I’ve seen, Garcia was about a #3-4 quality starter when he was traded away, and has consistently stayed at that talent level. So to get (again, all of this is based on how things looked at the time) an everyday catcher, a stud up-the-middle prospect, and a nice role player for that WAS a steal.
And it turned out Freddy went 40-21 and helped lead the White Sox to a WS championship.
That reminds me of Jamie Moyer’s 20 win seasons, which he earned thanks to his high groundball rates and ability to miss bats and log high strikeout ra- oh wait, no it wasn’t. It was because he was surrounded by a decent defense in a pitcher’s park and a good offense that scored a lot of runs.
Yeah, referencing a pitcher’s W/L record is kind of like referencing his ERA on Tuesdays in day games.
[snerk] Hal McCoy in the Cincy Post:
Q. I recently returned from working in Seattle, and that town is chomping at the bit to get Ken Griffey Jr. back. With the stable of young stars in the Reds outfield, wouldn’t a trade for J.J. Putz make good sense to help solve the late-inning riddle the Reds call their bullpen? — Hessmo, Dayton
A. True, the Seattle media is ga-ga for Griffey. They remember The Kid. Also, when Griffey said he would like to retire in a Seattle uniform, he didn’t say he wanted to play in that uniform, just retire in it, like I’d love to retire in my robe and slippers with a Montecristo in my mouth. I don’t think he wants to go play in Seattle, and he wouldn’t approve a trade there. And would Seattle give J.J. Putz for him? Don’t think so.
On another note, can I just say “Fausto Carmona” is my favorite player name since Emiliano Fruto faced Coco Crisp. Just say it out loud, in fully-rolling Ricardo Montalban mode. He sounds like a character straight out of a telenovela: the smouldering-eyed scion of a disgraced family, returned from a murky past cloaked in an assumed identity to exact revenge, leaving the women broken-hearted and the men simply broken.
“¿Por qué?” they cry, ¿Quién es usted?”
Because…. I am… Fausto Carmona!
Don’t be silly — I’m not trying to say the W-L proves anything — I was just using short hand to say Freddy was a good pitcher. He gave the White Sox well over 200 innings, had good K rates, low walks, above average ERA +. What was arguably his best trade was seen as good or favorable for the M’s at the time (not a steal), and I would argue has been a net negative when looked at with post hoc analysis. I agree that time-of-trade is the better way to go, and so that and the Huber trade are the two that could be said to be good ones for Bavasi.
Out of about 20 trades.
The point is Bavasi is poor at evaluating talent, and poor at negotiating beneficial trades.
Forgot to say:
Over 200 innings with good K/BB rates per year for two and a half years
53 However, losing a first round draft pick because you signed Hansen in the first place was dumb. I bet Bob Melvin was glad he made that suggestion because now he has Conor Jackson. Jackson > Huber > Hansen
1. If you think they opted at the optimal time, I disagree. I absolutely believe they should have waited a bit longer, to get a better picture of what they had.
My point is: don’t trade someone BECAUSE you have no room for them, until your hand is forced.
There is no possible way to argue that they got fair value for him.
2. The sale value is only hurt if there is only one team they are trying to trade with. More than that and the market becomes more important.
3. Again, I was talking about the concept of a logjam. I never said anything about Lopez. And I certainly never threw hum under the bus this year. You won’t find a single post like that from me this year.
But… your response is where my first point kicks in: did they have to move him when they did? Couldn’t wait a bit longer to better evaluate what they had?
Who would you rather have right now?
re: Garcia… I never said anything about Garcia. Garcia wasn’t in a ‘logjam’.
Sorry, 62 is directed at 55, and “opted” should be “acted”.
11 – I think it was 1993-1995 that Caray was in the Mariner booth. I met him there on at least one occasion.
To be clear, too, I’m not saying that Bavasi is good at working out winning trades. He’s obviously not.
I’m just saying that the criticisms of the Garcia and Cabrera trades are based on what we know NOW; based on what we knew at the time, they were pretty decent trades.
Bavasi’s made plenty of trades that you can point to as having been dumb based on what he knew at the time they were made (HoRam, Vidro); criticise him based on those, but not on the fact that he can’t see the future.
FTR, Caray sucked here, too.
I think this counts as cleaning house.
new Pirates headman Neal Huntington has fired Jim Tracy, as well as the Dir. of Player Development, the Dir. of Scouting & the Dir. of Baseball Operations ….
I hope Caray has gotten it out of his system that he has to explain the American League to his Braves fans. Particularly since, as mentioned above, he’s not very good at strategy to start with.
58 – I was on the same track as you, but I’m envisioning him in an opera.
Without the missed month Utley is the MVP.
As it stands there are 5-6 guys for whom you could make your case depending on your metric of choice and how much you weigh all the various intangibles like playing for a winner and “clutchitude” (Holliday, Jones, Peavy, Pujols, Utley, Wright).
I still think Rowand’s not getting his due as a 6-10 pick before Rollins.
65- How is young guy with potential for old guy that can only hit LHP and won’t be used be seen as a good trade?
Let’s trade away the cheap arbitration years of a bench player but possible everyday player for an old LHP hitting DH for 5 months. Sounds Bavasi-esque to me.
Bavasi took a good problem, having 2 qualified 2nd basemen for their sheap years, and turned it into a bad one, having 1 unused DH’s for 5 months.
We traded TWO MONTHS of Freddy Garcia for three decent prospects (admittedly, none of them panned out in Seattle, but that’s more on crappy development here than anything else, IMO).
Given Freddy’s playboy tendencies, the team wasn’t interested in re-signing him at any price, especially not free agent starting pitcher prices – he was one of the few guys they took all the way in arbitration.
Given all that, Bavasi did quite well.
OTOH, Bavasi traded SIX YEARS of Asdrubal Cabrera for 80 (horrible) at bats of Eduardo. Again, Perez’ woes could be laid at the feet of Hargrove, who let him rot on the bench like some poor bastard cousin of Ben Broussard, but still, a .550 OPS is nasty for an alleged power guy.
Pardon me for sounding a little frustrated, but I’m really not sure how many times people are going to continue to not read the parts of my post where I say that BAVASI DID NOT GET AS GOOD A VALUE AS HE COULD HAVE FOR CABRERA before it sinks in.
Perhaps capital letters will help.
Re: 58 — agree completely on the wonderfulness that is Fausto Carmona’s name. The only thing you missed was:
“I am… <i<Fausto Carmona! You killed my father…prepare to die!”
72 – yet you say the Cabrera trade was good at the time. I would argue it looked horrible then and even worse now. Especially when he knew Hargrove wouldn’t even play Perez. Perez’ dismal performance here was just the (garlic flavored) icing on the cake.
How could anyone project Cabrera, thanks to Bavasi’s Have Them Fail as a Minor Leaguer Before They Go to the Majors program. As a 19 year old, Cabrera went from low A to high A to AAA. Bavasi was working hard to get him to fail, apparently so that he could sell him off cheaply and have him be an instant hit for another ballclub in the Majors.
Despite the contributions from all the young coming-on players during these play-offs, what’s the press talking about?
The play of Old As the Hills Kenny Lofton. Couple headlines on Yahoo, gets first topic on Jim Rome, and I’m sure there’s more.
If Hargrove refused to use the assets provided to him, that’s a problem with HARGROVE, not Bavasi.
I said that it was “pretty decent”, and I stand by that. At the time, Cabrera was a reasonably well regarded prospect, but every team in baseball knew the Mariners didn’t have a spot for him, so you weren’t going to get top-tier talent.
Based on all of that, Perez was probably in the midrange of talent that you could have gotten back for him.
Now, if you want to say that Bavasi should’ve told Hargrove that he had to USE Perez once he was there? I’ll agree. But that’s a different conversation than evaluating the trade.
If you want to point to evidence that Bavasi is bad at negotiating trades, there is PLENTY of evidence of that that does not require him to have a crystal ball, as I detailed in prior posts.
I’m glad to see Cabrera is doing well, but claiming that Bavasi got fleeced on the trade based on results years after the fact is disingenuous.
Again, at the time, Lopez looked like he would be the better player. I really, really don’t understand why people are so willing to throw him under the bus based on a bad season and a half at such a young age, especially when he had a huge family tragedy AND was harmed by bad coaching from Hargrove.
I know that results-based analysis isn’t welcome around these parts, but I don’t think that saying “well, at the time, it looked like (crappy player) had more potential” gets a GM off the hook for a trade that ended badly. This is the kind of thing scouts are for. Hire good scouts. Do your research. Don’t run your minor league program in a way that hinders the sound evaluation of prospects. You can’t win them all, but with Bavasi, clearly there has been a pattern of things turning out badly.
And can we please stop the authoritative statements implying that Jose Lopez’s ability to hit a baseball was effected by the family tragedy.
72 – “I’m just saying that the criticisms of the Garcia and Cabrera trades are based on what we know NOW; based on what we knew at the time, they were pretty decent trades.”
I don’t think a lack of capital letters is what is causing the confusion.
You say a smart gm could have done better, but you also say don’t have a problem with it, it was decent, etc.
I’m saying that I DO have a problem with it, it WASN’T decent and we DIDN’T need to do it.
No one is misinterpreting what you are saying here.
Okay, if you don’t get it by now, it means you don’t want to.
So, RAH RAH BAVASI ROCKS MY SECRET IS OUT.
I wrote a whole post about evaluating trades, too, to talk about these very issues. Oh, those were the days.
Giving your manager a player he won’t use is like giving your kid a toy he won’t use.
Bavasi gave Grover crayons, and Grover ate them. I blame Bavasi for giving the crayons to a kid who wasn’t going to draw.
I’m just saying that the criticisms of the Garcia and Cabrera trades are based on what we know NOW; based on what we knew at the time, they were pretty decent trades.
Um, well, actually… not so much. A lot of people hated that trade then, too.
Bavasi needs to have faith in his farm system. That’s been his only strength since taking over. If I were Bavasi I wouldn’t trade another player on the upside of their playing arc. The results are disasterous.
However, this hindsight hand-wringing is actually kind of annoying. If Bavasi hadn’t acquired a suitable DH replacement he would’ve been condemned as well. Take the hit, move on, and file this next Slocum, Heathcliff. If it helps, I’ll buy ya a “shit happens” bumper sticker.
The comments on that post prety much echo what I’m saying now. We overpaid, but Cabrera had no future in the organization, and we did get a piece that it looked like at the time we needed.
So, for me, that grades out at “pretty decent”. Not “great”, not “good”, not “Bavasi is a mastermind”. PRETTY DECENT.
And by “that trade”, I mean “Perez for Cabrera”. Garcia was another story- but like Dave says, we paid $20 for a gallon of milk by dealing a prime prospect for someone we could have signed in the 2006 offseason, had Bavasi not been fixated on Carl Everett’s veteran intangibles… and now that Jose Lopez is on the verge of washing out of the organization, and it’s clear that Oswaldo Navarro is a better fielding/crappier hitting version of Willie Bloomquist, we’re kind of screwed.
I’ve got to chime in on the Cabrera debate here. I think the first step in solving “the logjam dilemmna” is to determine both the nature and scope of the logjam, as well as the likelihood that it will eventually dissolve on it’s own, so to speak. Cabrera was an infield prospect – someone who could fill in at 2nd or 3rd, and perhaps even at SS in a pinch. He was also the team’s only infield prospect who was even close to Major-League-ready. So the question Management needed to ask at the time was “what are we going to do if Lopez suffers a serious injury? What will we do if Beltre goes down for a significant length of time? And what are our options if we lose Betancourt for an extended period?”
From that perspective, unless you’re comfortable with WFB as your infield insurance policy, the “logjam” doesn’t look as severe, and Cabrera isn’t nearly as expendable. I’ve long been a big Jose Lopez fan, and I still think it’s too early to write him off. But I hated the Cabrera trade at the time because it reduced our infield insurance policy to either WFB or the aging, declining veteran that we would likely over-pay for if one of our infielders went down with something even semi-serious.
And then there’s the question of what we hope and expect (on a best case scenario basis or otherwise) to get in return. And from that angle, the trade looked abysmal at the time, without the benefit of hindsight.
I think we are fighting over the tail, and we need to look at the dog. It doesn’t matter whether the tail is cute or merely OK, the dog is butt-ugly.
80 – Yeah, Jeff… we were saying you thinks Bavasi rocks. Give me a break.
I was discussing what you actually said and at the level you actually defended it. If it makes you feel better to think everyone misunderstands you, then go ahead, I guess.
I think it was dumb to trade a promising young player for a one-dimensional (actually, half a dimensional) player, and that if they they felt like they HAD to, then they are idiots.
And I didn’t like it at the time, either. So it’s not hindsight.
So, for me, that grades out at “pretty decent”. Not “great”, not “good”, not “Bavasi is a mastermind”. PRETTY DECENT.
So if you went to the 7-11 at 3 am (when everything was closed) and got a $20 gallon of milk, you’d think you got a “pretty decent” deal? Even if you could have gotten a $3 gallon of milk while your local grocery store was open, but you decided to get some milk for $5 that was past it’s expiration date, from some guy selling it out of his trunk, because you liked the milk’s “intagibles” (aka Carl Everett)?
By that standard, the HoRam for Soriano trade grades as “pretty decent”- the Mariners needed a starting pitcher, Soriano had no future in the organization, and we had considerable quantity decent relievers (keep in mind we picked up Reitsma AND Rhodes in the offseason).
Really, you’re not getting it. It was a bad trade at the time, by OBJECTIVE standards (in terms of talent surrendered for what was obstained- 20 year olds playing well at AAA are really quite valuable), just as the Garcia trade was good at the time by those standards.
As far as other options available at the time, Dave says in a post in that thread that he didn’t view Osvaldo Navarro as being that far behind Cabrera as a stopgap defensive infielder, if it came to that.
So there were other viable options at the time within the organization if an infielder had a sudden blowout. if you want to say “well, what if TWO of them got injured at the same time?” I’d argue that no team in baseball would be risk-averse to that extent.
VORP isn’t much better.
The only real problem I see with VORP is that it scores DHs too high because it sets their replacement level incorrectly.
It also isn’t defense-independent when measuring pitchers, but sometimes you don’t want a defense-independent stat (I use defense-independent stats to vote for the Cy Young, but not the MVP, for example).
Oh, okay. So it’s okay for other people to claim that I’m not understanding THEIR posts, but it’s not okay for me to claim that people aren’t understanding MY posts.
I don’t feel like playing with any more straw men today. You win.
91
Correct me if I’m wrong, But the perceived ceiling for Cabrera has always been much higher than it is for Navarro.
87 That trade was also at a time when Michael Garciaparra and Greg Dobbs were still in the system plus Chen was still healthy. Infield depth didn’t look as thin as it does now.
Is there anything that doesn’t suck? Does Runs Created suck?
I never liked Runs Created. But I am a fan of EqA (though even BP doesn’t use it much anymore).
Is there a measure of individual defense that doesn’t suck?
UZR is pretty good. The THT measures are nice. PMR can be useful. Dewan’s +/- system I like.
As far as other options available at the time, Dave says in a post in that thread that he didn’t view Osvaldo Navarro as being that far behind Cabrera as a stopgap defensive infielder, if it came to that.
The difference is AbCab projects as MORE than a stopgap defensive infielder, and it’s very obvious from his minor league stats.
Oswaldo Navarro doesn’t. Per Dave:
I don’t think Navarro’s going to hit in the majors. I think, in his prime, he’s Rafael Bournigal or something. He could be a quality reserve, because he’s legitimately good at shortstop, but the stick isn’t going to be there for him to hit enough to play everyday. Navarro’s upside was as a role player. Cabrera had a chance to start.
And the point you’re missing is that, yes, people DID think it was a bad deal AT THE TIME- regardless of the fact that Perez has gone on to be an ESPN commentator.
From the same comment, Dave, again:
Bavasi’s entire tenure year has been characterized by overpaying for the guys he wants. They overpayed for Sexson. They overpaid for Washburn. They overpaid for Everett.
We can now add “They overpaid for HoRam” to that list. Do you seriously not see the common thread here?
93 – I’m sorry you think that’s what happened.
I also am a little surprised that you think the dominant opinion in that at-the-time thread is “decent.” There was an awful lot of talk about Varitek.
I’m not trying to fan the flames here, but Asdrubal was viewed as an excellent defensive SS. Not a 2b, not a random IF guy like Morse. He was a good, MLB-quality SS. The question was always whether he’d hit enough to be a regular.
That the Indians have used him *mostly* as a 2B doesn’t mean he was blocked by Lopez, he was ‘blocked’ by Yuni.
Bill Bavasi said that he thought Navarro rated about equal to Cabrera at the time, and that was misguided. Navarro had a good reputation with the glove (that reputation did not survive 2007), but had no history of success at the plate.
Chip Carey in the Yankee-Indian broadcast just said Cabrera was a great pick-up and that the Cleveland Indians are great at evaluating talent.
All-righty, then, guess that ends that discussion !
I wrote a whole post about evaluating trades, too, to talk about these very issues. Oh, those were the days.
I know, I was just thinking about that. And hoping all the folks rehashing that debate (and the particular details of the Garcia and Cabrera trades at the time and in retrospect) would go find that thread and post there so that we could discuss, I don’t know, the greatness of the words “Fausto Carmona.”
But you know, Dave opened the door to this in his post by bringing up Bavasi’s trade of Cabrera so I guess we deserve it. Will we drown them out with game comments eventually, or is there going to be another post for that and we can leave the at-the-timers vs the in-retrospectionists to fight it out in their own wasteland?
95
I never saw Garciaparra or Dobbs as anything more than stopgap depth, while Cabrera was a legitimate plus-prospect.
By the same token, I would be reluctant to deal Balentien unless I was very excited about what I was getting in return, because I don’t see Jeremy Reed as the source of legitimate outfield depth.
Would I sacrifice depth for a key, long-term piece I didn’t feel I could get elsewhere? Yes. Would I sacrifice depth for a desired piece without regard to price or long-term projections? No.
“I’m just saying that the criticisms of the Garcia and Cabrera trades are based on what we know NOW; based on what we knew at the time, they were pretty decent trades.”
That’s your quote. It is my opinion that you are making a tortured reading of the post and the ensuing comment thread I posted if you are seriously arguing that people were evaluating Cabrera/Perez as “pretty decent”, and the criticism is all being made in hindsight. I see a thread where a lot of people are saying “bad trade”.
As for straw men- YOU are the one equating the Garcia and Cabrera trades and implying the criticism is all being made in hindsight. I’m pretty sure I could dig up many, MANY quotes from Dave and other commenters saying the package we got for Garcia was great at the time.
well, it was Hargrove who picked Everett off the LHS list.
c’mon Indians! Pettitte is old and washed-up!
Dave:
Has your opinion changed concerning VORP because of where replacement level is set for DH and perhaps first base or do you think replacement level is way too low across the whole positional spectrum?
Lets see A-rod go 0-for in the ALDS
Well, Chip finally got his sac bunt – hope he’s happy.
I remember the buzz here about Asdrubal a few years ago. Alas, he’s gone and finding success elsewhere. Funny how top prospects can contribute when they get a chance to play.
That was a particularly sweet A-rod strike-out.
Nice how the final strike came right after scolding broadcaster saying they were fools to pitch to him because of all his regular season success.
#108– he even got a shout-out on NPR tonight …
Here is Cabrera’s chance to shine!
Go Tribe.
*Points at Steinbrenner and laughs* Nyah, nyah!
Hafner the hero.
Of course, the Yankees are the only team in the history of the 5-game division series to come back from 0-2 to win (the “Jeter flip” series vs the A’s).
Yikes, what’s wrong with Dice-K?
“I am… Fausto Carmona! You killed my father…prepare to die!”
You know, I actually thought of that. But that would only apply to the men. For the women, it would be “prepare to swoon” or perhaps “prepare to surrender your virtue” or something. Not short or pithy enough in any case.
Though perhaps “prepare to meet my sword” would work…. (”Meet my little friend”?)
Are we forgetting someone, joser?
I was about to say…wasn’t there another team that lost two in NY only to come back and win the series…..in…. 1995 or so? =)
Many someones.
The Mariners ‘95 and ‘01 come immediately to mind, as does the Red Sox ‘03. Pretty sure there’ve been several others.
Baker says the coaches (except Pentland) got their walking papers. This team certainly needs all the pitching coaching it can get. He’s thinking Charlton may come back for the bullpen.
Wonder who the bench coach will be. Maybe that’ll make some difference next year.
Sorry, just found the new thread.
Asdrubal had several weak attempts in the clutch today. I’m sure he’ll come around, though. Perhaps he’ll be the hero in game 3. Gotta like the Indians going up 2-0 on the Yanks!
The Yankees losing is its own reward. But when a team like Cleveland does them in, it’s even better.
ah, Manny.
so, have they identified the ball-grabbing fan yet?
Danny Vinik of suburban Boston, according to the AP story.
That new meatball pitch K-Rod put in his rep is pretty nice. Do we know if Manny’s ball landed yet?
I know this doesn’t make any sense really, but! Doesn’t it almost make more sense to pitch to Ortiz in Fenway? Manny only has to hit it about 315 down the line and the run is in. Ortiz has to hit it 380 to get it over the fence. I know the handed matchup and Ortiz’s success in late innings, but Manny is probably a future Hall of Famer and your choosing to pitch to him with a short porch? Both choices suck and walking Ortiz is the right thing to do but I don’t want to pitch to Manny with a short porch if I have any other choice.
And again, on tonight’s Monster Chiller Horror Late Movie, an encore presentation of Man-nah Ramirez in…DIE ANGELS DIE!
I was so frustrated watching how much fun the Red Sox fans were having at the game tonight you’d think they were called the Boston “Stupid f’ing Mariners!!”
Why shouldn’t Rollins win the MVP? He had a great year. I agree that Utley is a better player, but he also missed a month. Is Rollins that bad a fielder?
Why won’t the Red Sox be good sports and roll over and die like the Yankees!? Didn’t they get the memo? That this was going to be an all underdogs post-season?
129: It has nothing to do with his fielding. But at the plate he lead the lead in outs, for starters.
And, in stores now, don’t forget to pick up the soundtrack to DIE ANGELS DIE…featuring the hit single “MAH-NAH, MAH-NAH”!
Meh. I don’t think that’s a good reason. The guy got on base reasonably well, hit with a lot of power, stole bases, played an important defense position, and played it well from what I’ve heard. If you can do all that, I think you at least deserve MVP consideration.
132: Consideration, sure, but ahead of Wright, Holliday, Pujols, Peavy, Utley, Jones…? That’s where you lose me.
Utley and Chipper missed a lot of time and Holliday played in Coors. I think that takes their value way down. As for Wright, Pujols, and Peavy, yeah I think they’re in the running. Right up there with J Rol.
Never a bad day when the Yanks get eliminated.