Defining the offseason challenges
So let’s talk off-season, and what the M’s are going to face.
The big issue is that the M’s have a long ways to go if they’re going to compete against the Angels next year, and not a lot of places they can do it.
Position players
C: Johjima, Burke will likely return.
1B: Sexson’s under contract, and they’d probably like to dump him
2B: Lopez is under contract, but they’re really not happy with him and will certainly consider upgrades.
SS: Betancourt
3B: Beltre
LF: Ibanez, but even the M’s must recognize his range is destroyed and he’s killing the defense.
CF: Ichiro
RF: ?
DH: Vidro’s under contract and may be too brittle to play the field everyday. Spot 1B starts, sure, but his lateral range is too horrible for 2B. Whether they’re considering playing him at second over Lopez would depend on their opinion of whether he could handle the wear, as well, and I don’t know what their thinking is on that.
Stashed:
C: Clement’s glove isn’t ready by all reports, and his bat’s probably not ready either. No worries if he goes to Tacoma again.
1B: Broussard’s a question mark – there’s really no place for him next year either
OF: Jones has gotta, gotta start. Balentein might be able to play a decent corner, but the team’s said pretty strongly they want to avoid having two rookies in the outfield. That’s a whole other discussion, though.
And Bloomquist for the bench. Whee!
What’s up?
If they pass on Guillen, it works out pretty well. Ichiro might want to move back to right, but you can play Ichiro in CF, Jones in RF no problem — Jones has range and a great arm.
If they re-sign Guillen or they sign a different OFer, then you need to push Ibanez out of the outfield in favor of Jones.
Pushing Ibanez requires you move him to DH or 1B, which requires you to move Sexson or Vidro, with Sexson the more likely of the two.
What’s going to happen:
A 2B upgrade may not be their highest priority (we’ll get to that) but they’ll be listening. I’ll be stunned if they don’t find some veteran infielder to come in and challenge for the job. Take your pick of whoever they might be able to sign to a minor league contract or even bring in for a couple million, depending on how soured they really are.
If Guillen or an OF signs, still think Sexson gets dumped somewhere and Ibanez will move to first.
If they don’t, they’ll leave Ibanez out there to stink up the place defensively.
Starting pitching:
SP Hernandez
SP Washburn
SP Batista
SP ?
SP ?
They’ve got some candidates to start, guys like Baek, and the plan to get Morrow into the rotation may… well, it’s a possibility. They may see if HoRam can turn it around in spring training. But they’ll be looking to bring in a starter. If you don’t think they want to see two kids in the outfield, what do you think the chances are they’ll go into next year taking two gambles in the rotation?
The pressure to sign someone or trade for a name – Barry Zito! – is going to be high, and they may be willing to part with some top prospects for a Horacio Ramirez-level acquisition. Not funny? Too soon?
Bullpen:
Not a big issue. You’ve got Putz and a ton of guys like Green that can pitch on the cheap. We’ll probably see them try and pickup a veteran or two for “stability” or whatever, but that’s easy enough.
In terms of priority/what we’d be trying to fix
I know everyone’s screaming that we need starting pitching, but the best thing the team could do is to turn the defense around. It’s an easy way to make the team better and you get Jones’ bat into the lineup. That, in turn, makes it a lot easier on the pitchers, who can go deeper into games, saves the bullpen, it’s a whole cycle of awesomeness. Which means I’m arguing you try and get Jones in and upgrade again after that — so you have to move Sexson.
Or, to put this another way, moving Sexson gives the team many more ways out this offseason and more money to do it with, and they shouldn’t stop trying to make it happen, ever. They should be calling other GMs at Christmas hoping they’re loopy on eggnog. The sooner you can do it, the sooner you can tell Raul to start working out there and hope he’s passable by Opening Day.
Signing starting pitching from the free agent market’s a fool’s errand. Dave’s written about this, but your chances of getting anything approaching value form a free agent pitcher are really low, to the point it’s not worth it. Don’t do it! Go for the scrap heap! Trade for some of Tampa’s excess! Don’t lock us up to a huge, horrible deal because it’s a bad year for pitching talent! Please?
I’d be a lot more willing to take a one-year flyer on Mike Mussina, even with that dying strikeout rate (this is even more attractive if you improve the defense). But I’ll freely admit I’m a raving Mussina fan and have been for years. I may not be entirely rational – I mean, as I write this, I’m watching the Indians beat him up and I’m still thinking “pick up that 2008 year on his deal? Better than taking on Zito’s contract…”
But there’s the challenges at a high level:
– defense sucks
– starting pitching sucks
– Jones needs a spot cleared
– Sexson sucks, Ibanez sucks defensively
Be assured we’ll be getting into a lot more detail about pitching candidates and so on soon enough.
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62 Responses to “Defining the offseason challenges”
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Is Carlos Silva going to be prohibitively expensive?
Seems to me he’d be a good fit at Safeco.
I realize that Bavasi has a penchant for pursuing overpriced mediocre declining veterans, but isn’t Silva a little better than that?
Anybody know if Kam Mickolo will be ready to go by Spring Training?
Anybody also think they have an idea if Bryan LaHair will be Major League ready by ’09?
47,
So to summarize, you’d like a lineup with high averages, average or above walks, and power in the middle? I think that’s what every team in baseball wants. Easier said than done.
As 49 pointed out, that’s not likely to happen with this lineup. All the coaching in the world can only do so much, so while it’s certainly a noble goal to do the things you mentioned, I think we need to be a little more realistic about what we’re working with. Even if the guys we have improve, we can easily still be the worst team in the AL at walking – there’s just that much distance between us and the rest of the pack (KC had 39 more, and we were approx. 150 below the AL average in ’07).
I think the more realistic approach is that we look for high OBP in future signings, rather than focusing on our existing players. I don’t think we’re going to teach our ‘old dogs’ (Beltre, Ibanez, Guillen, Ichiro, Johjima) any new tricks. Put some work into Betancourt, Lopez and Jones, and we might see some improvement. Feel free to straighten me out on this if you know better, but I have the impression that once you hit the major league level, significant change in walk rate is unlikely.
2) to build rallies and hang lopsided numbers on the board, you have to put together an offense that can string hits together.
Actually, crooked numbers usually come from mashing the ball off, over or at least to, the fence. Hitting a bunch of singles is what the M’s did this year, and the result, while not terrible, is usally a run here, a run there, lots of guys left on base, and lots of streakiness. That’s not necessarily a negative, but it’s also not an improvement over this year.
Someone suggested non-tendering Ramirez. I thought he was under contract for 08. If so, I doubt anyone would take him off our hands. I don’t know if a move to the bullpen would help him, but I would not, under any circumstances, give him a shot at earning a rotation spot in Spring Training. ST is way too small a sample size, with a variable quality of competition. He could look really good in Peoria, but there’s no “turning around” for him to do. He is what he is, and I’d either turn him into long relief, or stash him in Tacoma as an emergency starter.
The only problem with bringing someone in to challenge Lopez for 2B is that there’s just no place for the loser to go. We already have a utility IF in Bloomquist, and already have a logjam at DH. Whoever loses would probably need to go out. I assume Lopez still has options left, and he also has some trade value (young, former All-Star middle infielder, struggling as of late? I’d take him). Anyone they sign to challenge for 2B probably has neither. I’d really hate to see them give up on Lopez, but I expect they will.
The only problem with bringing someone in to challenge Lopez for 2B is that there’s just no place for the loser to go.
I’m not really married to the idea of WFB as the utility IF, but I understand the front office is. That being said, though, I’m more inclined to look in the minors for an underrated guy trapped in a minor league system than paw through the FA market. Think of this as AbCab in reverse. As such, you’re likely to have more roster flexibility than with a “proven veteran”- where the choice is basically to dump him in spring training or force him onto the roster somehow.
55- ramirez’s contract is up…seattle can let him walk or do whatever they want if they resign him…
I’m not sure they even consider this…either that, or they’re so married to the idea that major league experience trumps talent, that they will never do it.
I’m not so sure getting ‘value’ in the FA market is as difficult as you make it sound. Getting value in 2008 will surely be difficult, but the price of pitching goes up every year. A 5-year, 100+ mil contract might look like a steal in 2010.
I’m not so sure getting ‘value’ in the FA market is as difficult as you make it sound.
When compared to what you can get out of a farm system, I actually think it is.
55- ramirez’s contract is up
Well, that’s a bit of good news. Thanks for setting me straight.
So if we’re just judging the actions of the current management groups, then what have Wayne Krivsky and Bob Castellini done to merit an F? By pretty much any measure, the Reds are much stronger than they were when that crew took over just before 2006. The 40 man roster is much deeper. There is more young talent on the 25 man. They have 4 of the top 20 prospects in baseball – a top 10 system easily. After Junior walks in 2008, they have zero bad contracts on the book. This rating just smacks of a surface level reaction to a reputation of the organization — exactly the opposite of how you treated Tampa Bay. You do realize these aren’t the same guys who signed Eric Milton and traded for Tony Womack, right?