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	<title>Comments on: The Seeds of Success</title>
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	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-242368</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 02:27:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-242368</guid>
		<description>You may be able to make a losing team a successful business (as several teams have shown), but I think there&#039;s abundant evidence that that isn&#039;t the strategy the team is following: they&#039;ve spent far more than they needed to the past few years given that they could&#039;ve achieved a losing team with &lt;i&gt;more&lt;/i&gt; profits if they hadn&#039;t spent so much on Sexson, Beltre, etc.  Simply tearing down and rebuilding with a bunch of kids (which they can market just as effectively as any veteran player) would&#039;ve earned them more profits if winning didn&#039;t factor into it.  As I pointed out in &lt;a href=&quot;http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/08/we-will-not-do-a-cleveland-style-rebuilding/#comment-240856&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;a comment in a previous thread&lt;/a&gt; Cleveland is spending far less in payroll for each fan who is attending games -- and the M&#039;s, who almost certainly have a better cost structure thanks to the stadium and concession contracts, would make more money if they had rebuilt with kids like Cleveland has.  And, incidentally, they might still be playing games in October too (sometimes you &lt;i&gt;can&lt;/i&gt; have your cake and eat it too).

It&#039;s also not at all clear that the Mariners are going to remain profitable (or as profitable) if they continue with their &quot;not necessarily winning&quot; strategy (if indeed that&#039;s what it is): &lt;a href=&quot;http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/08/we-will-not-do-a-cleveland-style-rebuilding/#comment-240901&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;attendance&lt;/a&gt; has gone from #1 in baseball five years ago to #16 in 2007, and that plunge looks to continue.  Cleveland plunged further during their rebuilding process, and remains lower, but they&#039;re spending far less... and now they&#039;re winning, too, which is bound to help attendance next year.  

No, I&#039;d say the M&#039;s want to win games and the division, and their &quot;lunchpail&quot; fans do too, and when they don&#039;t the fans stay away and the team spends a lot more money, both of which impact their bottom line.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You may be able to make a losing team a successful business (as several teams have shown), but I think there&#8217;s abundant evidence that that isn&#8217;t the strategy the team is following: they&#8217;ve spent far more than they needed to the past few years given that they could&#8217;ve achieved a losing team with <i>more</i> profits if they hadn&#8217;t spent so much on Sexson, Beltre, etc.  Simply tearing down and rebuilding with a bunch of kids (which they can market just as effectively as any veteran player) would&#8217;ve earned them more profits if winning didn&#8217;t factor into it.  As I pointed out in <a href="http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/08/we-will-not-do-a-cleveland-style-rebuilding/#comment-240856" rel="nofollow">a comment in a previous thread</a> Cleveland is spending far less in payroll for each fan who is attending games &#8212; and the M&#8217;s, who almost certainly have a better cost structure thanks to the stadium and concession contracts, would make more money if they had rebuilt with kids like Cleveland has.  And, incidentally, they might still be playing games in October too (sometimes you <i>can</i> have your cake and eat it too).</p>
<p>It&#8217;s also not at all clear that the Mariners are going to remain profitable (or as profitable) if they continue with their &#8220;not necessarily winning&#8221; strategy (if indeed that&#8217;s what it is): <a href="http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/08/we-will-not-do-a-cleveland-style-rebuilding/#comment-240901" rel="nofollow">attendance</a> has gone from #1 in baseball five years ago to #16 in 2007, and that plunge looks to continue.  Cleveland plunged further during their rebuilding process, and remains lower, but they&#8217;re spending far less&#8230; and now they&#8217;re winning, too, which is bound to help attendance next year.  </p>
<p>No, I&#8217;d say the M&#8217;s want to win games and the division, and their &#8220;lunchpail&#8221; fans do too, and when they don&#8217;t the fans stay away and the team spends a lot more money, both of which impact their bottom line.</p>
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		<title>By: scottg02</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-241029</link>
		<dc:creator>scottg02</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Oct 2007 11:53:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-241029</guid>
		<description>By the way, on the subject of the Indians, Antonetti, and Diamondview, this is old but an absolutely excellent read.  

http://www.cleveland.com/gameplan/index.ssf?/gameplan/more/part2.html

This if from 2003, but it is why they are where they are now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By the way, on the subject of the Indians, Antonetti, and Diamondview, this is old but an absolutely excellent read.  </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cleveland.com/gameplan/index.ssf?/gameplan/more/part2.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.cleveland.com/gameplan/index.ssf?/gameplan/more/part2.html</a></p>
<p>This if from 2003, but it is why they are where they are now.</p>
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		<title>By: scottg02</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-241028</link>
		<dc:creator>scottg02</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Oct 2007 11:47:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-241028</guid>
		<description>Excellent post Dave.  I am a huge fan of the Indians, especially for their implementation and use of DiamondView.  They&#039;ve stepped it up and its proven to work now, I wish the Mariners would develop a similar system.  Clearly, one does not need to be a genius to know its the way to go.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Excellent post Dave.  I am a huge fan of the Indians, especially for their implementation and use of DiamondView.  They&#8217;ve stepped it up and its proven to work now, I wish the Mariners would develop a similar system.  Clearly, one does not need to be a genius to know its the way to go.</p>
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		<title>By: John in L.A.</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-241015</link>
		<dc:creator>John in L.A.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Oct 2007 01:20:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-241015</guid>
		<description>121 - EC, I don&#039;t think you get my point, you keep arguing past it. None of what you are saying addresses the distinction I&#039;m making. 

And I agree that the team is generously bankrolled and poorly run.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>121 &#8211; EC, I don&#8217;t think you get my point, you keep arguing past it. None of what you are saying addresses the distinction I&#8217;m making. </p>
<p>And I agree that the team is generously bankrolled and poorly run.</p>
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		<title>By: eponymous coward</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-241002</link>
		<dc:creator>eponymous coward</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 23:37:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-241002</guid>
		<description>Again: the Seattle Mariners have made less in terms of operating income over the last few years than the Cleveland Indians.

So I think even the propositions that

- they manage the team PRIMARILY with an eye towards annual profit and
- they&#039;re pretty good at this

don&#039;t really hold up. I think it&#039;s reasonable to take Lincoln et. al. at their word: their TWIN goals are competitiveness and profit, and they like to demonstrate the former by making sure the payroll is in the top 10, while not abandoning the latter unless dire circumstances ensue (see: 2004). They just suck at understanding what makes a team truly competitive, and have a bit better idea on how to run a balance sheet.

You have to remember the history current ownership is a successor to: 15 years under mownership that was either undercapitalized and looking towards the door pretty quickly after becoming owners (the Danny Kaye or Jeff Smulyan days) or just plain cheap and out to extract maximum profit for minimal investment in payroll (Argyros), and even during the mid-90&#039;s, salary considerations were part of how the team was run- the Tino+Nellie trade, for instance (which, in retrospect, was a trainwreck- we traded two good players for two ones nowhere near as good- Tino actually compares decently to some guys in the HOF, though he doesn&#039;t belong in there any more than George Kelly does).

Armstrong certainly remembers those days- he&#039;s a holdover from the Argyros years. So I think part of what informs and guides management philsophy is remembering crowds of 7,000 in a cavernous concrete dome, and thus their desire to be &quot;competitive&quot; is quite sincere, from both a business and personal perspective. Baseball isn&#039;t much fun in an empty stadium with a team where you KNOW the ownership is basically giving up on the season in April in order to make sure they get fat checks from MLB&#039;s TV contracts and revenue sharing, and it&#039;s rather sad when you know your boss can&#039;t wait to cash in the good young players in trade for some more kids once they get expensive.

This also might help explain why the M&#039;s keep guys who are &quot;faces of the franchise&quot; around- they had to TRADE Langston, Moore, Hendu, Owen, Cruz, and even Tino- not for talent reasons, but because they couldn&#039;t afford them. I imagine a feeling of &quot;Gee, we can keep guys like Edgar, Wilson, Willie and Raul around now- isn&#039;t that nice?&quot; underlies some things too.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Again: the Seattle Mariners have made less in terms of operating income over the last few years than the Cleveland Indians.</p>
<p>So I think even the propositions that</p>
<p>- they manage the team PRIMARILY with an eye towards annual profit and<br />
- they&#8217;re pretty good at this</p>
<p>don&#8217;t really hold up. I think it&#8217;s reasonable to take Lincoln et. al. at their word: their TWIN goals are competitiveness and profit, and they like to demonstrate the former by making sure the payroll is in the top 10, while not abandoning the latter unless dire circumstances ensue (see: 2004). They just suck at understanding what makes a team truly competitive, and have a bit better idea on how to run a balance sheet.</p>
<p>You have to remember the history current ownership is a successor to: 15 years under mownership that was either undercapitalized and looking towards the door pretty quickly after becoming owners (the Danny Kaye or Jeff Smulyan days) or just plain cheap and out to extract maximum profit for minimal investment in payroll (Argyros), and even during the mid-90&#8217;s, salary considerations were part of how the team was run- the Tino+Nellie trade, for instance (which, in retrospect, was a trainwreck- we traded two good players for two ones nowhere near as good- Tino actually compares decently to some guys in the HOF, though he doesn&#8217;t belong in there any more than George Kelly does).</p>
<p>Armstrong certainly remembers those days- he&#8217;s a holdover from the Argyros years. So I think part of what informs and guides management philsophy is remembering crowds of 7,000 in a cavernous concrete dome, and thus their desire to be &#8220;competitive&#8221; is quite sincere, from both a business and personal perspective. Baseball isn&#8217;t much fun in an empty stadium with a team where you KNOW the ownership is basically giving up on the season in April in order to make sure they get fat checks from MLB&#8217;s TV contracts and revenue sharing, and it&#8217;s rather sad when you know your boss can&#8217;t wait to cash in the good young players in trade for some more kids once they get expensive.</p>
<p>This also might help explain why the M&#8217;s keep guys who are &#8220;faces of the franchise&#8221; around- they had to TRADE Langston, Moore, Hendu, Owen, Cruz, and even Tino- not for talent reasons, but because they couldn&#8217;t afford them. I imagine a feeling of &#8220;Gee, we can keep guys like Edgar, Wilson, Willie and Raul around now- isn&#8217;t that nice?&#8221; underlies some things too.</p>
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		<title>By: unkrusty</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-240999</link>
		<dc:creator>unkrusty</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 22:23:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-240999</guid>
		<description>One of my favorite images of the post-season so far was game 2 in Cleveland, Mark Shapiro in the stands, patiently explaining, one would assume, some finer baseball point to his adorable son.  Hire that kid!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of my favorite images of the post-season so far was game 2 in Cleveland, Mark Shapiro in the stands, patiently explaining, one would assume, some finer baseball point to his adorable son.  Hire that kid!!</p>
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		<title>By: msb</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-240997</link>
		<dc:creator>msb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 22:12:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-240997</guid>
		<description>#115--  obviously it&#039;s the story of the moment-- there is anopther link to a different take in #99</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#115&#8211;  obviously it&#8217;s the story of the moment&#8211; there is anopther link to a different take in #99</p>
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		<title>By: todda70</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-240996</link>
		<dc:creator>todda70</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 21:54:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-240996</guid>
		<description>From Jason Stark&#039;s ESPN column today - http://tinyurl.com/2gafy5 - Let&#039;s hope the M&#039;s front office reads this.

&quot;Everything you used to think you knew about October was wrong.

Wrong.

Defunct. Inapplicable. Flat out misguided.

Wrong.

Think about the three fundamental rules of October as we used to know them:

    * The team with the most postseason experience usually wins.
    * The manager with the most postseason experience usually wins.
    * The team with the biggest payroll usually wins.&quot;

Pretty cool stuff.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From Jason Stark&#8217;s ESPN column today &#8211; <a href="http://tinyurl.com/2gafy5" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/2gafy5</a> &#8211; Let&#8217;s hope the M&#8217;s front office reads this.</p>
<p>&#8220;Everything you used to think you knew about October was wrong.</p>
<p>Wrong.</p>
<p>Defunct. Inapplicable. Flat out misguided.</p>
<p>Wrong.</p>
<p>Think about the three fundamental rules of October as we used to know them:</p>
<p>    * The team with the most postseason experience usually wins.<br />
    * The manager with the most postseason experience usually wins.<br />
    * The team with the biggest payroll usually wins.&#8221;</p>
<p>Pretty cool stuff.</p>
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		<title>By: gwangung</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-240995</link>
		<dc:creator>gwangung</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 21:54:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-240995</guid>
		<description>re 114

You know....I don&#039;t think we&#039;re disagreeing much on the broad strokes....only on the very fine details....

And it strikes me that the two strategies described, one is for corporate managers, and the other is for entrepreneurs and VCs.

It&#039;s not a coincidence that the past two Mariner CEOs (Ellis and Lincoln) strike me as more managers than entrepreneurs....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re 114</p>
<p>You know&#8230;.I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;re disagreeing much on the broad strokes&#8230;.only on the very fine details&#8230;.</p>
<p>And it strikes me that the two strategies described, one is for corporate managers, and the other is for entrepreneurs and VCs.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not a coincidence that the past two Mariner CEOs (Ellis and Lincoln) strike me as more managers than entrepreneurs&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: Rusty</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/comment-page-3/#comment-240994</link>
		<dc:creator>Rusty</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 21:40:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/09/the-seeds-of-success/#comment-240994</guid>
		<description>I cry &quot;FOUL&quot;!

Jerry Crasnick was out of ideas to write about on ESPN so he scavenged USSM for this storyline.

Click: &lt;a href=&quot;http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2007/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&amp;id=3057755&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;HERE&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt; for vultured column.

But they say, imitation is the highest form of flattery, or something like that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I cry &#8220;FOUL&#8221;!</p>
<p>Jerry Crasnick was out of ideas to write about on ESPN so he scavenged USSM for this storyline.</p>
<p>Click: <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2007/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&#038;id=3057755" rel="nofollow"><b>HERE</b></a> for vultured column.</p>
<p>But they say, imitation is the highest form of flattery, or something like that.</p>
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