Comments on: The Hidden Gem Of Free Agent Pitchers

By: swwashfan

swwashfan — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 23:26:29 +0000

100 – I thought Batista was mentioned in the post. As I re-read it, he obviously wasn’t. However the posting is a teaser to buy the 2008 Hardball Times Annual and the analysis is based upon a Win Share Added formula. I didn’t find a link to Batista’s value. However my guess is that it ranks with Seattle’s other positive FA’s to offet Richie’s bottom 10 ranking and still leaving the Mariners far ahead in FA value.

By: scott19

scott19 — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 23:15:03 +0000

91: Not a bad idea — the M’s could give OCB a big old oversize banner at Safeco next year!

BTW, I think we forgot to add our old pal Freddy G. and his trusty sidekick Sir Sidney Ponson to that “Big Guys” rotation.

By: bakomariner

bakomariner — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:08:23 +0000

99- batista isn’t mentioned? he lead the team in wins…very good FA pickup last year…

By: swwashfan

swwashfan — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 21:53:08 +0000

I don’t know what to make of Bartolo Colon. But for an alternative perspective check out today’s hardball times and their post about valuing free agents. According to their analysis:
I know you’re dying to see the next list: the worst values of 2007:

Colon, Bartolo ($9,949,934)
Kendall, Jason ($9,118,644)
Sexson, Richie ($8,840,459)
Schmidt, Jason ($8,678,969)
Jennings, Jason ($8,549,268)
Giambi, Jason ($8,545,215)
Monroe, Craig ($8,174,059)
Maroth, Mike ($7,875,913)
Gibbons, Jay ($7,612,287)
Durham, Ray ($7,177,283)

This list is usually dominated by pitchers, but not so much this year. Still, Bartolo Colon, who was the sixth-worst value last year, tops the list this year.

If Dave is right, Bartolo Colon would be more than a hidden gem, he would be the MLB version of Lazarus coming back from the dead – especially at the numbers Dave tosses out.

With regard to the Mariners overall ability to get value out of free agents the Hardball Times evaluation is:

Speaking of free agents, you may have noticed that Seattle had both a top 10 best free agent value (Ichiro) and bottom 10 worst free agent value (Sexson). Overall, Seattle actually squeezed more value out of its free agents than any other team, a factor in their fine year. Mariner free agents with positive values included Ichiro, Raul Ibanez ($8.8 million), Jose Guillen ($5 million) and Johjima ($5 million). Here is the list of the top five teams, ranked by free agent value:

SEA $25,628,277
TB $19,239,443
DET $17,130,918
CHN $15,196,158
ATL $12,864,675

By: Evan

Evan — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 21:36:42 +0000

A one-year rental like Santana is almost never worth it.

By: sevenfly

sevenfly — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 21:27:30 +0000

Great write up on Colon… any chance of getting similar analysis on Santana? How good of a fit would he be, best guess on who it would take to get him and would it be worth it, would a long term contract be smart for him… those typical questions.

I rarely post or log in, but read all the time. Outstanding blogging this year guys, best on the web.

By: Evan

Evan — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 20:02:57 +0000

The whole point of the off-season is to do things like the Guillen deal. Guillen was undervalued by the market, so we signed him to a contract that was a good deal for us.

By: Jeff Nye

Jeff Nye — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 19:43:56 +0000

The entire premise of this post is that you go after Colon if he’s undervalued by the market, and Dave gives reasons why that is likely to happen.

If he ends up not being undervalued by the market because some crazy GM out there wants to give him 3/45 or something like that, then you stay far, far away.

By: CCW

CCW — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 19:04:43 +0000

Nate Silver, in his Baseball Prospectus chat yesterday, endorsed Colon as one of the few pitchers likely to be undervalued this off-season. He said: “I think “broken” pitchers like Colon, Dontrelle Willis and Eric Gagne are definitely where the bargains in this free agent class lie.” (and he called Dontrelle a “de facto” free agent). We shall see.

By: Carson

Carson — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 18:52:41 +0000

I’m not sure you can call a guy who won the AL Cy Young just two years ago a hidden gem. He’ll get plenty of looks. How many offers he gets because of the injuries is questionable, but it’s not like anyone will go “Bartolo who?” and turn away without some consideration. We certainly can’t expect the Mariners to outsmart many other clubs and steal him.

As long as some other team doesn’t theow a ton of money at him, and he can be had for Dave’s price range, I’m all for it. Though, I fear in this market his name will earn him a couple more million per season.