News of the weekend
Indians Assistant GM and USSM-Endorsed GM candidate Antonetti interviewed for St. Louis Friday. He’s passed up the chance to interview for other GM jobs, so we know at least that it’s attractive enough for him to pursue it.
LaRue in the TNT argues “Wretched Ramirez still worth keeping”
Ramirez is a 27-year-old left-handed pitcher with a career record of 38-29 and a lifetime ERA of 4.61. In 2007, he was wretched – by any standard – but the week the M’s release him is the week another team picks him up.
[...]
GM Bill Bavasi would dearly love to see Ramirez make that trade with Atlanta last year – sending Rafael Soriano to the Braves – look better. But the real reason Ramirez is still here is that he’s a living, breathing pitcher with a history of winning.
Mentioned at length is Pineiro’s contract with St. Louis. Not mentioned: Pineiro was still not good, and the contract given to him doesn’t make that less true. Mentioned? Ramirez’s overall winning record. Not mentioned: there is no evidence that Ramirez can be an effective major league starter. Unless he shows up at spring training with improved control and better stuff, preferably thrown faster, he’s going to be the same sucky pitcher he was last year. What are you going to point to as reason for hope? Stretches of effectiveness? Nope. Good strikeout rate? Nope.
I’ll stop harping on this. HoRam is a bad, bad pitcher.
And to circle back on our new pitching coach: the good
“I have stolen little bits and pieces from each one of the pitching coaches I have worked with,” he said. “One thing I took from all of them is they all tried to work with people individually and not make everybody the same, which is impossible.”
I do always wince when I hear about pitching coaches who insist that all their pitchers throw with a 3/4ths delivery, or whatever their fixation is.
“I am a big, big believer in pitching inside and I will tell you this, the Seattle Mariners will pitch inside next year,” Stottlemyre said from his Sammamish, Wash., home. “I am not afraid of going on record with that, because pitching inside is an absolute must. I think you have to pitch inside to be successful outside.”
Pitching inside is the pitching coach’s “improved situational hitting”.
Comments
USSM uses and recommends
Word from VEB is that Antonelli will be the GM in St. Louis next year.
HoRam + Stottlemyre = HBP
One might ask just what LaRue is smoking to be writing such nonsense.
Then again, the Orioles are still in the league, so maybe they’re desperate enough to take a chance on HoRam.
from Cleveland and from StLouis
Ho should learn how to throw a knuckleball and Burke should learn how to catch it. It would be some sort of an improvement, if they’re gonna insist on running him out there every five days. Somebody call Phil Niekro.
re:2
yes, but at least the ptich will not be thrown very hard.
5: That might be an idea…hell, Niekro made a HOF career for himself despite not having enough velocity to break a pane of glass.
In 2007, he was wretched – by any standard – but the week the M’s release him is the week another team picks him up.
Of course some other team will pick him up. Some teams have really crappy pitching, and some teams make bad decisions. It would potentially be a good decision to pick up Horacio at the minimum or so (the difference between, say, Josh Fogg and Horacio Ramirez is not all that large), and stash him in long relief, available as a starter if your staff suffers enough injuries, but that’s not an option on the table for the Mariners.
What will H get if he goes to arbitration? Around $2.5-3M probably? If the Mariners can’t find a better way to spend $2.5-3M, then they aren’t trying hard enough.
HoRam + Stottlemyre = HBP
many*HBP = Suspension
Therefore,
HoRam + Stottlemyre = Addition By Suspension
If you’ve got room on the roster you might as well keep HoRam around. He’s relatively cheap, gets some groundballs, and throws with his left arm. He sucks at everything else but he only needs to improve in one or two areas a little to become slightly useful. I guess I’m just uncomfortable with letting go of starting pitching with the price of it today.
Keep him around to compete, I say, but don’t just hand him the job on paper. That would be ridiculous.
Possibly he has some trade value to an NL team?
Something Stottlemyre said in an earlier interview is that his pitching philosophy can be boiled down to ‘work fast and change speeds’. That is a huge upgrade over ‘establish the fastball’.
10. HoRam started, but did he pitch?
He’s relatively cheap, gets some groundballs, and throws with his left arm. He sucks at everything else but he only needs to improve in one or two areas a little to become slightly useful.
Hey, I throw lefty and am also “cheap,” should I be on the roster?
I think we need to remember that all the fancy pitching metrics about LB%, FB%, BABIP, only apply if you start with the premise that the pitcher has major league stuff. HoRam isn’t unlucky, and balls didn’t just squirt past the fielders, no, HoRam sucks, he got hit hard and often and we couldn’t blame Raul or Richie or Yuni’s arm on all of that.
For him to stick on the team and become a fan favorite he needs to improve on 2 things:
1. GRIT
2. Get adopted by the Bloomquist family, so he can be a hometown guy.
Our new pitching coach wants the pitchers to go seven every time out. It’s a great idea, but it wasn’t possible this season. I don’t think it was because the starters weren’t interested in going longer, they just couldn’t hack it. If Mel can make that happen (while picking up wins, of course), I’ll be happy to acknowledge that coaches can make a major difference. He says he can get them to do it by throwing better pitches, not more of them. Good luck.
Dave,
Trying to play Devil’s advocate. Here’s HoRam’s DERA for his five years in the bigs
2003 – 4.47
2004 – 3.76
2005 – 4.99
2006 – 4.66
2007 – 7.50
In seems like 2007 it the unusual season. HoRam will never be good or even above average. But it seems he does have the ability to be an average big league starter based off his numbers from 2003 – 2006. Do you think he has the ability to return to such levels in 2008?
I wish the new Stottlemyre instructed HoRam would pitch to Tim McCarver right now.
Guillen = LH? From Larue:
“Guillen did everything Seattle could have asked, and it’s tough seeing a left-handed bat leave the Mariners’ lineup. It just doesn’t seem to be a fit for 2008 and beyond.”
16: Nah, a well-placed foul tip back towards the booth with the proper amount of velocity on it would do the trick.
A Rod opting out according to SI:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/specials/playoffs/2007/10/28/rodriguez.contract/index.html
Dave != DMZ
Great…guess that means that the best we can shoot for the next three years or so will be the Wild Card — since A-Rod will probably wind up going to Disneyland. >:(
Then again, we can always take the “glass half-full” perspective and keep shooting for the WC anyway. After all, doesn’t A-Rod always seem to jinx every team he lands on (especially in the post-season)?
No reason to believe the Angels will be any different.
Ok, this isn’t going to happen, but I’m curious as to what people think. The M’s decide to go for the big headline and manage to resign A-Rod. Would the fanbase be won back? I think I’d be fine around the time of his first hit in spring training.
I love Alex as a player, but I don’t see him being a good fit for the team as it’s currently built. I’d cheer for him.
DMZ – you thinking Cali? I’m rooting for some NL team to get him.
Yeah. If the Angels sign him it’s going to be torture.
I’m speculating that the over/under on the Angels signing A-Rod is about 50%. Red Sox and Dodgers are my likely backup plans taking up a large majority of the remainder, with some dark horse team that I haven’t come up with the remainder.
I don’t think that’s how over/under works.
Maybe we’ll get lucky and the Dodgers will take him.
I love the Red Sox. And of them, Tek is my favorite.
I sometimes wonder, if they hadn’t made that boneheaded trade…where we’d be now.
9: There is only one problem with that equation. Ho Ram throws so softly that the hitters will probably have ample time to step out of the way . . . nice try though, I too would love to see the guy off of the active roster.
AROD 4 2ND!!!!!!!!!!1111
#30: Probably in the same place we are now since what afflicted those mid ’90’s Mariners teams was pitching, and certainly catching wasn’t a problem when Dan was here.
But the better question to ask would be what would this franchise be like if Woody Woodward had valued and invested more into this team’s minor league system and instead of letting Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe go for washups like Heathcliff Slocumb, demand more talent and better talent for them.
The same could also be said in reverse thinking about the trades for Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey, Jr. (although Junior’s trade was made under Pat Gillick’s watch) as well. While good players were brought in for both of these stars, you could certainly argue more talent could’ve been brought in.
But hey, why should we complain right? We have a “family friendly” ballpark and the best fucking front office in baseball according to Chuck Armstrong.
Yeah. . .
#29: I’m sensing a Cubs uniform in A-Rod’s future. . .
I think Seattle fans, even as fickle as they are, won’t take A-Rod back too quickly. Love his bat and he plays good defense (last I checked at least). But the whole “it’s not about the money” thing was lame and has not been forgotten.
I’m probably giving fans too much credit. Two or three home runs and he’d be our favoritest player ever all over again.
34: That’s also a possibility, due to Lou’s presence.
Besides, is it possible to jinx the poor Cubbies any more than they ALREADY are?
#36: Of course, every time Bill Bavasi or Chuckles speaks things always seem to get worse for the Mariners.
It’s funny how when you think things can’t get worse they can. Just watch, the Cubs will sell their souls to get A-Rod.
Pineiro’s contract is the classic “Everything I know about being general manager I learned from my mom” moment: If other teams jumped off a bridge, would you jump too?
#38: Bill Bavasi’s answer: “Hell yeah!!”
They’re loud, but I don’t know how many of the Jilted ARod Boyfriends are actually left. Even in Seattle people move on eventually (and rather than being fickle, I call that rational). The JARBs would quickly be drowned out by healthy fans (many of whom, we should remember, only adopted the team in the Ichiro-led 21st century).
But ARod’s not going to sign here, so there’s little point in speculating about it. I just hope he doesn’t end up with the Angels (of course if he doesn’t, that probably means Bonds does). And you do realize that getting out from under ARod means the Yankees have Santana money…
#16, Trying to play Devil’s advocate. Here’s HoRam’s DERA for his five years in the bigs…In seems like 2007 it the unusual season.
Maybe what’s unusual about it was the fact he spent it in the American League? He has to face the DH and doesn’t get to pitch to the Marlins and the Nationals six or seven times a season. Unless Seattle switches leagues (and perhaps also swaps in Mazzone for Stottlemyre) I would expect ‘07 is the new normal for him.
Let’s say for one second that the M’s did sign him. Where would they put him? Short? Move Yuni to second base and trade Jose? That seems like the best scenario if he were to sign. Forgetting the fan base for a bit and their anger towards payrod. The question is…how’s his range? I mean it’s been a while since he played Short Stop. Would he take a lower contract if a team promised him SS? Things that make you go hmm… We all know that the offense does need some improvement. All this is well and good speculation, but the reality is that it’s our starting pitching that needs the most help.
Buster Olney had this interesting comment in his blog Sunday:
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster
“Antonetti has turned down chances to interview with other teams, and if he turns down this job, he will have other chances — and depending on how next season plays out, there may be opportunity in Seattle (the place a lot of GMs say they would love to work), with the Yankees, in Philadelphia, and other spots.”
What do you guys make of that? Idle speculation, or some concrete reporting that Seattle (or Philly) would be interested? And what of the “a lot of GMs” comment? Is that just Gillick types, or will Seattle really command some of the great candidates?
Our run differential needs the most help. Doesn’t matter which end you help it from really.
I would put A-Rod at 2B if he agreed. If not, back to SS for as long as he could hold onto the position without being Raul-esque and then probably move him to 1B.
(Given this is all purely imaginary anyway) Why not put ARod at 3rd? You can trade Beltre (hint: the Yankees will be in the market for a new 3B), and you’ll need to save money.
Dave has said repeatedly that Seattle is viewed by many in baseball as a desirable GM gig for a variety of reasons — relatively large payroll, a division with just 4 teams, non-meddling (if not downright disinterested) ownership, a compliant press environment, and a recent history of losing that makes any improvement look good. Plus the usual “quality of life” issues that have people moving here (and that are still available to someone making a GM salary).
As for the comment, I don’t think he’s saying Seattle is currently interested. But Bavasi remains on a year-to-year basis, and just because nobody is making “hot seat” statements right now doesn’t mean the position might not be available next year. So all Olney is saying is that the M’s GM position is a desirable one, it might be available next year, and if Anonetti is still without a GM job next year he’d certainly be a candidate if it opened up. In other words, nothing we didn’t already know. (Of course, there’s a separate question: would the M’s be willing to consider a brand new GM, one who hasn’t been through the wars and who didn’t have that veteran grit?)
Did you just say “non-meddling (if not downright disinterested) ownership”?
You’re ascribing that viewpoint to Dave?
It seems in conflict with all the angst that goes on here about Lincoln and Armstrong, like just the other day after Armstrong gave the little talk at the business conference somebody’s wife went to.
Do baseball people (inclusive of potential GMs) believe this to be true, and if so, how/why is that such a completely opposite view from that held by a lot of Ms fans?
Lincoln and Armstrong do not own the team.
LaRue writes:
But the real reason Ramirez is still here is that he’s a living, breathing pitcher with a history of winning.
Well, the real reason he’s still here is because Seattle doesn’t have another productive body to make it worthwhile to boot him off the 40-man, which is a pretty damning indictment of the front office.
I love how LaRue argues that Seattle can’t let him go for nothing, as though teams will be lining up to offer something for him if the M’s let it slip that he’s on the market.
#47: see comment #14 in this thread. I know he’s gone into greater detail (more than once) in other threads I can’t find at the moment. I don’t want to put words into Dave’s mouth, but I think I characterized his opinion accurately.
WRT the ownership question, as #48 notes Lincoln and Armstrong are not owners. If you think the Seattle situation is undesirable, just imagine working for Angelos, or Steinbrenner until recently, or or Vince Naimoli when he controlled the Rays.
Why do people think A-Rod will be a Cub? See past Piniella, the major market and the image to reality.
Unless the Cubs get their ownership situation straightened out in a hurry — with owners who have all sorts of money to burn right out of the gate — they’ll largely be sitting out the free-agent offseason, I would think.
I think there’s a fair chance, actually, that NOBODY signs him. On Boras’ stated terms, anyway. It won’t be collusion as much as a gun-shy offseason in which there’s nobody else to artificially lift up the market — no Barry Zitos or Alfonos Sorianos or Carlos Lees.
I wonder if Larry LaRue was okay with letting Carlos Guillen go for nothing? Or Jeremy Reed, the major haul from the Freddy Garcia trade? Maybe hanging on to Jeff Cirillo for a few more seasons would have eased the sting from seeing Brian Fuentes pitch in the postseason. “History of winning” … Jesus wept, Makes one despair if people will EVER see past pitching wins and losses to what really is.
Drayer (with a few self-described catty moments) blogs about where Alex might end up today
HoRam is fine as a spring training non-roster invite who you can send down to Tacoma when he sucks, and only making MLB minimums.
He’s arbitration eligible this year, and due to make millions. Keeping him on the roster under THOSE circumstances, especially it’s easy to pick up replacement-level talent, would be silly. The M’s should decline arbitration and say “You’re welcome to come to spring training if you can’t find other work”. Let some other team guarantee a bigtime salary.
Also, from LaRue’s article:
They already have their outfield tentatively set for next year – Raul Ibañez, Ichiro Suzuki and Adam Jones. And with Richie Sexson still a one-man logjam at first base, the team will likely try to find at-bats for Ben Broussard in the outfield.
Then there’s rookie Wladimir Balentien knocking on the door from Tacoma.
Guillen did everything Seattle could have asked, and it’s tough seeing a left-handed bat leave the Mariners’ lineup. It just doesn’t seem to be a fit for 2008 and beyond.
Two comments:
- If this is the Mariner thinking for the offseason, it has FAIL stamped all over it. Raul and Broussard as outfielders? Sexson as the primary 1B? Aaaaargh.
- Shouldn’t the beat writer for the team be able to figure out one of the team’s best hitters and potential free agents is a right-handed batter?
#53: Don’t buy into this stuff yet, things are still very early. I’m not going to lie though, I’m wondering why any of the Seattle beat writers haven’t talked ONCE about Kosuke Fukudome being a viable possibility for outfield. Because I think he’d be a very successful doubles hitter in this park.
He’s arbitration eligible this year, and due to make millions. Keeping him on the roster under THOSE circumstances, especially it’s easy to pick up replacement-level talent, would be silly.
Can’t they just cut him if he goes to arbitration and they don’t like the award?
Otherwise, I agree that it’s crazy to give him what he’ll earn in arbitration, and I don’t think Seattle will do that. That would be insanity.
berm – I think that if they offer arbitration, and the player agrees to it, they’re on the hook for whatever the salary outcome is for one year.
Don’t buy into this stuff yet, things are still very early
Note I said “if”… but we’re discussing a team that thinks “Hey, we’re very close to 90 wins!” as opposed to “Hey! Our run differential’s very similar to last year, when we were under .500. Maybe we should rethink this”.
I’m not going to lie though, I’m wondering why any of the Seattle beat writers haven’t talked ONCE about Kosuke Fukudome being a viable possibility for outfield. Because I think he’d be a very successful doubles hitter in this park.
I think Fukudome is probably a .290/.380/.450 hitter at Safeco- basically Johnny Damon with a few more walks and XBH and less stolen bases.
That being saidm I think it’s going to be VERY hard to pry Raul out of LF if Guillen doesn’t come back, especially with Vidro still being the putative DH, and I don’t see that the team thinks “Hey, Raul and Richie’s defense was a BIIIIG problem”… so Fukudome doesn’t make sense when they aren’t bringing back Guillen to start with (I assume to make big offers to guys like Carlos Silva).
berm – I think that if they offer arbitration, and the player agrees to it, they’re on the hook for whatever the salary outcome is for one year.
It’s for something like 1/6th the salary, and even if the M’s WON arbitration, he’d still get a raise from what he made last year. You don’t get salary cuts in arbitration on 3/4/5/6 year players- it’s just not designed that way.
There’s really no reason to keep HoRam under team control and making millions, other than a desire to prove Mariner management didn’t screw up another roster decision. It would be better to cut bait and move on to other players.
#57: Remember though too, if Reed continues to make progress in the minor leagues this year, he could work his way back into the starting outfield in 2009 and prove to be one of those players who just went up and down the minor league several times before staying with the big league club permanently.
So Fukudome would be able to move to DH while Reed would play left or right field. And heck, Fukudome was a decent outfielder in Japan throughout his whole career there anyways.
Lest we forget too that Reed did lead the PCL in hitting this year, so he could end up in an every day lineup still someday.