Tuesday Notes
Dave · November 6, 2007 at 8:21 am · Filed Under Mariners
A few interesting stories popped up this morning.
Jose Guillen purchased $19,000 worth of steroids from 2002 to 2005. Honestly, I’m not really surprised. Hopefully, this doesn’t discourage the M’s from offering Guillen arbitration to receive the compensation pick when he signs elsewhere, but it could.
The Marlins officially confirmed that they’re shopping Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Unfortunately, the Mariners are going to be interested in the wrong one of those two.
And finally, Larry Stone checks in and tells us that the Mariners are expected to bid on Japanese right-hander Hideki Kuroda.
Interesting that Schilling’s deal with the Sox includes a weight clause ($2 million incentive), maybe the M’s should consider one for Colon or Cabrera if they make a move on either.
Perlozzo to 3rd. Larue gets one right! This is the equivalent of Ibanez throwing a runner out at home.
GMs voted to support limited instant replay: “The recommendation is limited to home runs: Whether they are fair or foul, go over any line indicating the top of a fence and possible fan interference.”
However, my favorite part of the story is: “”As you know, we have glacier-like movement in baseball,” Solomon pointed out.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20071106_Baseball_GMs_vote_to_explore_instant_replay.html
One might argue that the shrinking of glaciers has been inversely proportional to the growth of Barry Bonds’ head over the last 30 years.
I think it makes sense, if only because in every case it has a direct bearing on whether or not one or more runs crosses the plate. It will be interesting to see if they adopt it, and if so, if they can keep it to that, or if it will ultimately extend to fair/foul calls down the lines, etc.
People mention the growing head of Barry Bonds, but no one notices how huge Tony Gwynn’s head is.
55 – Yes, but look at the size of the rest of Gwynn.
Well… that’s all terrible news. Kuroda’s sounds like he’s not really any different from Baek. Willis will command a serious package and may not transition well into this division. Balls.
Adding Cabrera would be sweet, I suppose, but he does not fill any gaping holes and would cost too much. If he were Erik Bedard, then its a different story. But an all bat righty (even an elite bat) is not what the club needs most and I wouldn’t want to see the farm bled dry to bring him here.
Dave, the best option for another pitcher in the off season from what you’ve written is Colon (though with some risks); is there anyone else that you would consider even a close second?
Dave has written that Colon is his preferred free agent pitching target, but not necessarily the top off-season pitching target. There are trade possibilities too. See here and here for some of his previous thoughts on potential trade targets.
Ha, nice irony. I make a joke about Perlozzo on yesterday’s thread and here he is today as the third base coach.
Fantasy land time -> Is it too late to convince Mazzone to come along and just pay Stottlemyre to go away? Mazzone + Felix = Good
#56 — apparently Tony has looked
word is Beltre finally has a Gold Glove.
oh, and Ichiro!, natch.
61 (msb) – Where did you see/hear this? That makes me very happy. I was really starting to think Chavez would never lose it because of perception. It really seems sometimes these people with a vote get their ballot, check names, and send it back within a few minutes.
I was thinking he would lose out to Lowell this year. I hope the word pans out–he deserves it!
Dave:
Why isn’t a left-handed arm that is a good bet for 200+ innings, K/9=6.5, BB/9=3, FIP=4.5 (or under) with significant ground ball tendencies a reasonable acquisition. Willis is overrated but with the exception of last season and a slight spike in his BB rate, he has been an above average starter.
I’m not suggesting he’s worth a a ransom in talent plus his salary but his likely salary of $9M next season seems like fair market value.
Adjust for the NL, Terry.
Also worth mentioning is that as a pretty good hitter for a pitcher, Willis has more value in the NL anyway.
60 – Good for Gwynn. And good for Beltre. I figured Chavez would finally lose it this year because of injuries, but having it go to a Seattle player would hardly be a lock.
Here’s a quick question:
The league effect is somewhere between .3-.5 runs/9 innings I think. Since FIP is basically adjusted to league ERA (basically league average FIP should be identical to league average ERA), is it appropriate to apply the league adjustment directly to FIP for starters?
Carlos Gomez at THT has attributed some of Willis’ decline to a gradual slowing of his tempo, so some of his issues may be fixable. I still wouldn’t touch him with the proverbial pole, though.
It’s bigger than that, Terry. Due to the current strength of the AL in comparison to the NL, the difference is closer to .8 runs per game right now. There’s about a .3 runs per game adjustment between league talent levels, and then about a .5 runs per game adjustment to account for the DH.
Ouch. The Rockies never had a chance.
Dave,
Didn’t baseball teams receive a preliminary report a while ago on who was doping and who wasn’t? Does this explain why the rumor mill went from hard 3 years / 30 million for Guillen to decline option and “the ball is in his court”?
#62– the GG’s
a lot of new faces
i’ve gotten so used to complaining the beltre has never won the GG, that now i don’t know what to do…but i am glad justice has finally been served…chavez shouldn’t have won it for the last couple years…
He sounds like a #5 starter – a fringe stuff strike thrower without an out pitch. We have enough of those.
Stone has him as having a mid-90’s fastball. Either the radar numbers are off or I suspect he has some more potential than just a #5, because your prototypical #5 strike thrower is somewhere in the 88-91 range ala Piniero or Franklin. Batista’s a better example of a guy with more juice on his fastball, and he’s more a 4.
I could live with Miguel Batista’s Japanese cousin at the right price, I suppose. Ryan Franklin, not so much.
According to Churchill’s scouting report, Kuroda sits 90-92, so the Franklin comparison may be more apt.
90-92 strike thrower w/ no out pitch sounds like Baek, and not just because they come from the same continent.
If he really throws mid 90’s with any semblance of control, worse come to worse you could stick him in the pen.
Stone was using Moyer’s radar gun, apparently. Was wondering where that went. Oooh la la!
Ha, nice irony. I make a joke about Perlozzo on yesterday’s thread and here he is today as the third base coach.
Fantasy land time -> Is it too late to convince Mazzone to come along and just pay Stottlemyre to go away? Mazzone + Felix = Good
Doesn’t the Basic Agreement limit the number of “Z”s you can have on your coaching staff?
Congrats to Beltre on the (much-deserved) gold glove. But the real news: no Jeter! Ding, dong, the witch is dead! Wow, NY lost its division, its coach, and its “gold glove shortstop” all in the same year. The end of an era? Or the calm before the storm?
Yo, Adrian — congrats! 🙂
With all due respect to Jimmy Rollins, though, I think Tulo may have gotten gypped this year.
Part of the reason the Gold Glove is a joke is that most Gold Glove winners win the award with their bats.
why, it is just crazy talk in Crasnick’s ESPN column:
“”Teams have been moving in that direction for a while,” said David Forst, Oakland’s assistant GM. “It’s not a new phenomenon. But when Cleveland and Boston have success in the playoffs with young players in pivotal roles, it certainly brings a lot of attention to the fact you can succeed that way.”
Said Kevin Towers: “Maybe we give a shot to a kid in Triple-A who we think might be a half-year away from being ready. Rather than going out and spending a ton of money when you have no history with a player, you can take a kid you’ve signed and developed and give him an opportunity.”
in an aside, having just tripped over the Sonics game, I am not sure what is weirder. Szczerbiak? the new look Swift? The fact it is Marques on the call with Calabro?
#41, I’m not a lawyer, but I am a law student and I can’t see why an employer shouldn’t have the right to punish its employees for illegal conduct. If a player got caught, say, shoplifting, or using cocaine, shouldn’t MLB be able to punish him even though there isn’t an explicit MLB rule against it? NFL players are frequently disciplined for criminal convictions, or even just charges. The caveat to this, of course, is that the player’s union’s lawyers are way, way better than a first-year law student!