Tuesday Notes
Dave · November 6, 2007 at 8:21 am · Filed Under Mariners
A few interesting stories popped up this morning.
Jose Guillen purchased $19,000 worth of steroids from 2002 to 2005. Honestly, I’m not really surprised. Hopefully, this doesn’t discourage the M’s from offering Guillen arbitration to receive the compensation pick when he signs elsewhere, but it could.
The Marlins officially confirmed that they’re shopping Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Unfortunately, the Mariners are going to be interested in the wrong one of those two.
And finally, Larry Stone checks in and tells us that the Mariners are expected to bid on Japanese right-hander Hideki Kuroda.
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Dave, is your prediction that the M’s are or will be interested in Willis based on any info, or are you just pessimistic about the capabilities of the M’s front office?
IF the M’s take Willis is he the next HoRam or is there any chance he turns into a replacement lever 4-5 starter? I think i know the answer, sadly…
I love the all these ballplayers were (are?) taking prescriptions written by dentists. Dentists!
Can these guys really not foresee that purchasing steroids and growth hormones with their own credit cards and shipping them to their home addresses would eventually get out? Got to be kind of embarrassing… to be that naïve/dumb/foolish.
With this news, might Guillen accept arbitration? He didn’t have the best reputation to begin with…
or how about guillen actually having the shipments sent to the oakland stadium…that either takes balls or immense stupidity…
I’ll admit I haven’t paid much attention to his career, but what’s the prevailing theory on what happened to Dontrelle Willis? A couple years ago, he won 22 games (yeah, I know, wins are worthless for predicative value, but still…), and was the Cy Young runner-up. Was he over-worked and/or injured, or was he just not really that good and was incredibly lucky at the beginning of his career?
Miguel Cabrera is awesome, and it be amazing if the M’s were interested in him (your implication that they are not interested is infuriating), and I’d be very happy if the M’s did sign him. Yeah, he plays 3B, but I assume he could be converted to OF or 1B or DH? I don’t know how good his defense is, but he swings a great bat, assuming SafeCo doesn’t eat him up.
Or did I completely miss the point, and you meant that the M’s are interested in Cabrera and you think they should be interested in Willis?
Cabrera’s available? That’s amazing.
He’ll probably go to New York to replace A-Rod.
If they play him at third alongside Jeter that should make for the most porous infield in recent major league history.
Dave, I seem to recall you stating at one point that Willis will be out of organized baseball in a few years. Is that still your opinion?
Larry LaRue at TNT has some wild rumors in this morning’s article. You really have to read: Cubs, Indians & Tigers interested in Ibanez.
Perlozzo M’s 3rd base coach? Broussard to Texas?
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/story/196634.html
Cabrera has gained approximately Ichiro’s entire bodyweight since coming up to the major leagues.
He has played left field and played all this season at third but should probably be thought of as a first baseman/DH. Apparently he combines the mobility of Prince Fielder with the fancy glovework of Richie Sexson.
Okay, that may be too harsh, but he’s rated for his astounding offence, and not at all for his D.
#10– Larue is just recycling what has been elsewhere since yesterday, including Perlozzo & Raul.
I like how the Philly papers say flat out Beltre is not available, whereas the NY papers assume that, of course, anyone is available for the Yankees.
and speaking of 3B, from Ft. Lauderdale:
“Especially for Cabrera, who at 24 already is a four-time All-Star, the asking price would be somewhere in the prohibitive to outrageous range. Even with a 2008 salary expected to approach $11 million through arbitration, the Marlins may not find a package that justifies trading one of the game’s top young hitters.
Teams in need of a third baseman, such as the Red Sox and Yankees, may deem it more prudent to flood Alex Rodriguez’s or Mike Lowell’s bank account than part with cornerstone prospects.
How eager are the Red Sox to give up outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury after his postseason or Clay Buchholz after watching him throw a no-hitter? Would the Yankees give up reliever Joba Chamberlain, starter Ian Kennedy and outfielder Jose Tabata for a guy who should command well north of $100 million to remain in pinstripes beyond 2009?”
Man, it would be awesome if the M’s would make a play for Cabrera, though I agree that it probably won’t occur to them. He could easily fit in at 1B, LF or possibly RF. He’s the only name I’ve heard that would draw my support for an Adam Jones trade. I think the Marlins would have to give strong consideration to a package of Jones, Clement and a good young arm like Tillman or Butler, and it would give our lineup immediate credibility. Does anybody know offhand what his contract status is?
Yeah, I’ve been expecting that report on Guillen ever since I read the ESPN report at the beginning of last year on how his personal trainer was Juan Gonzalez’s one-time drug mule.
Guillen cracks me up. Picking up the roids at the stadium. That guy is insane.
What makes me cringe is the thought we could trade Jones for Willis.
Yowza! They used the baseball stadium as a receiving address for steroids and HGH? This is many levels of stupid. Yes, the players are dumb, but what about the team(s)? Allowing their players to receive strange boxed shipments without even following up with the players to see what it is.
Joel Sherman has some speculations about what Mitchell report paranoia will do to the free agent market
Willis is all delivery. Once MLB hitters figured his timing out he was done.
I would not give up Jones in any deal for Cabrera. I know the guy is an incredible hitter, but he’s a liability at any defensive position, and his value as a DH wouldn’t be worth giving up Jones. I wouldn’t even make the deal if we were given 72 hours to get an extension done.
Also, Dave – what are your thoughts on Kuroda? Personally, after reading scouting reports (including Churchill’s), I’m not enthused, and would much rather see a one-year deal to Colon.
have you seen him lately?
LaRue says the Indians have mentioned Laffey for Ibanez?
Taking everything LaRue says with a boulder of salt, I’d be very happy with that.
Young, lefty pitcher with a 65% GB rate? And he’s under club control for the next few years? For a platoon hitter in the last year of a contract the M’s likely will not renew?
Yes please.
Everett Herald had this tidbit: http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20071106/SPORTS/711060077/1004/SPORTS
Yankees’ search for third baseman includes Beltre
The New York Yankees, maintaining their resolve to move on without Alex Rodriguez, have begun to explore options at third base, general manager Brian Cashman confirmed Monday.
And M’s third baseman Adrian Beltre seems to be one of those options.
Cashman said the Yankees have targeted free agent Mike Lowell and, as trade possibilities, Beltre and the Florida Marlins’ Miguel Cabrera.
Beltre, 28, has two years and $24 million left on his deal, although he has a limited no-trade clause that could complicate matters.
Ken Davidoff, Newsday
#22, see #12.
#23….I saw #12. More detail and a source in #22.
I think the Ms have been tied to rumors suggesting they’ve made attempts to acquire Willis previously, but really, Soriano for HoRam suggests that even if the Ms haven’t tried for Willis in the past they would be unable to help themselves if he was made available.
I think his point is not about the lack of detail or a source, it’s about the credibility of hypotheticals like this.
For me, the most shocking rumor out of Larue’s post is that TIM LINCECUM is available…
Is this actually possible? Why would the Giants trade TL?
sigh. yet again (this time on mlb.com) a remark made in passing about Asdrubal being stolen out from under the M’s noses.
Heh. I dig this gem from Stone’s article:
Certainly, this guy [Kuroda] fits in well at the front of their [the Mariners'] rotation…
HAHAHAHAHA. Um. Yeah. Either I need to dip into Kuroda’s agent’s stash, or the M’s rotation does indeed stink badly…
Paul,
I dug how Larry Stone politely addressed it a few paragraphs later:
Though Urbon is positioning Kuroda as a No. 1 or 2 starter, he is generally regarded by scouts as a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.
Nicely done, Mr. Stone.
Larry is a gentleman.
so, what are the odds Beltre beats out Alex for the GG today?
I dug how Larry Stone politely addressed it a few paragraphs later
Exactly…
Best. Local. Sportswriter. Ever.
or Eric Chavez
regarding Kuroda, he’d probaby be our #2 or #3 starter…what’s wrong with that?
Felix, Kuroda, Batista, Colon, and Washburn…does that sound bad to anyone?
I’d say the GG is as good as A-Rod’s. His offensive performance will simply overshadow everything else I think.
I think the Guillen story puts the icing on the cake for the Mariners not to bring him back.
I would support a trade from Cabrera, but not Willis. It looks like he wore down way too early, and I know the Mariners will see the potential, and the 20 game win season and say he could bounce back with better conditions, which is all possible, but I am seeing him being a slightly better, more expensive version of HoRam (Can’t see him possibly be hated as much as Jeff Weaver in the first two monthes of the season though.) On the other hand, as in Florida, he is a marketable player who would build a big fan base here possibly for his wacky pitching antics, which seems to be the top priority for this organization. But, I am surprised no one has brought this up yet, but Willis is actually not a bad hitter, atleast from what I watched from him a couple of years ago when I was a Marlins fan. They might see potential as sticking him as a Pinch Hitter or even DH when he doesn’t pitch, increasing his “value”. But as with Cabrera, he let himself go, as talented as he is, definately not worth Adam Jones or Jeff Clement.
As people have mentioned, the best trade is no trade, so I say keep what they got, because Mariners are fine for the most part on hitting (minus Sexson, Lopez). As far as pitching, I am just scared what Bavasi is going to do for starting pitching this off season.
[re-signed]
The Guillen, et al, story just makes me more angry at people who say you can’t discipline players for anything they did before MLB banned whatever substance. The substances were illegal at the time (given that prescriptions were written by people like a dentist who’s been de-dentised for what he did), and clearly players went to specific clinics where they knew they could get stuff, rather than going to say, the Mayo clinic where they knew they could get a good doctor.
As mentioned above, it also shows the stupidity of people using their own information to order the drugs. But it also shows the pervasiveness and acceptability of drug use, that players thought so little of the possible consequences that they did such ridiculous things.
Willis might bounce back in better conditions, but he won’t find better conditions in the AL. He’ll bounce all right.. just like Jeff Weaver did. Dead cat bounce.
Willis didn’t wear down, he got figured out. He may find a way to keep pitching successfully (by developing another pitch, perhaps) but he’s not going to “bounce back” just from a moving, and especially not from moving to the AL.
As for his batting…. teams in the NL hardly factor in batting ability when evaluating pitchers, so what kind of insanity would cause an AL team to do so? Or to use him in that way? Freddy Garcia was carrying a .300 BA during his time on the M’s but did you see him get used as a PH? NL teams will sometimes use pitchers as PH because they have to; AL teams don’t.
Re. 39 and Guillen’s steroids:
My wife brought that exact arguement up a few month ago. We were talking about Big Mac and I mentioned about punishing players for something that wasn’t against the rules. She said, ‘No, but having them was against the law. And the doctor perscribed them illegally’. It’s a pretty good point I’ve heard others make now too. If baseball were inclined, could they punish players like Guillen who aquired their steroids and possesed them illegally? Anyone here a lawyer?
I really think Kuroda would be a bad signing. Pitchers with better strikeout rates like Igawa and Ishii have struggled to make the move from the Central League to the majors. His numbers are inflated by pitching in a league with no DH. I’ve seen Kuroda pitch a bit in Japan and I think his BB rate would be good and he can eat through innings but his stuff is nothing special. Top line Japanese starting pitchers aren’t going to represent value for money anymore. Even Daisuke who’s clearly a cut above the likes of Kuroda has struggled to make the transition to a longer season and 5 man rotations. ML teams are better looking for undervalued Japanese pitchers like Takashi Saito who have the ability to get people out but haven’t been handled properly by their teams in Japan.
I would never use Willis’s name in comparison to either Ho(rrible)-Ram or Weaver. Willis will certainly not be worth whatever they try to trade him for. His K/9 and B/9 are below MLB average, and he’s a NL pitcher. But that puts him more into the Washburn/Batista department (still not good); but not close to the as bad as the Disastrous Duo.
On the plus side his GB% is 46%, and his BABIP was higher than MLB avg which is probably due to a combination of bad luck and poor fielding, so that could actually improve lowering his ERA a little. Not enough to make him a good pitcher though; but potentially not as bad as people are making him out to be.
The only similarity is both were NL pitchers, and both weren’t very effective last year. Obviously Ramirez was still much, much worse.
#34: Colon will eat too much and probably get hurt while Washburn and Batista can’t get you far enough into a ballgame, and of course who knows about Kuroda.
Sadly though, our options our limited in terms of the pitching rotation.
Dave, is your prediction that the M’s are or will be interested in Willis based on any info, or are you just pessimistic about the capabilities of the M’s front office?
The M’s have been interested in Willis for years. There’s no reason to think that they’ll back off now that he’s actually available.
I’ll admit I haven’t paid much attention to his career, but what’s the prevailing theory on what happened to Dontrelle Willis?
He was never as good as people thought. He’s been one of the more overrated pitchers in baseball for about three years now.
Dave, I seem to recall you stating at one point that Willis will be out of organized baseball in a few years. Is that still your opinion?
I said I wouldn’t be surprised if he was out of baseball in a few years. It’s not a prediction – I’m just saying it’s a possibility. He’s not the young stud with a bright future that he’s portrayed as.
Larry LaRue at TNT has some wild rumors in this morning’s article.
There’s a reason I don’t link to LaRue’s stuff anymore. He’s reaching a Finnigan-level of bad reporting. He called Aaron Laffey a right-handed pitcher today, called Jose Guillen a left-handed hitter last week, didn’t know that Guillen had a mutual option in his contract – just basic, common knowledge stuff that a beat writer absolutely has to know, and requires 10 seconds of fact checking if he isn’t certain.
His rumors are also ridiculous. The guy has next to no credibility anymore.
What makes me cringe is the thought we could trade Jones for Willis.
I’d be shocked if the M’s traded AJ.
Also, Dave – what are your thoughts on Kuroda?
He sounds like a #5 starter – a fringe stuff strike thrower without an out pitch. We have enough of those.
This, sadly, rules out the Mariners, who haven’t show much of a flair for using players property in the first place…
FYI Larry Stone breaks down the AL West for the ESPN Hot Stove feature (free content)
Question: would the Mariners be better off by using the money saved from Guillen’s contract to package with Sexson, or spending that cash on what limited pitching options that exist on the free agent market?
well, the rumors were the same ridiculous ones reported in other city’s papers– I think he just did a quick web-scan; the one thing Larue still does pretty well is the occasional ‘wacky clubhouse goings-on’ piece.
Dave, the best option for another pitcher in the off season from what you’ve written is Colon (though with some risks); is there anyone else that you would consider even a close second? You don’t sound very impressed with Kuroda.
Interesting that Schilling’s deal with the Sox includes a weight clause ($2 million incentive), maybe the M’s should consider one for Colon or Cabrera if they make a move on either.
Perlozzo to 3rd. Larue gets one right! This is the equivalent of Ibanez throwing a runner out at home.
GMs voted to support limited instant replay: “The recommendation is limited to home runs: Whether they are fair or foul, go over any line indicating the top of a fence and possible fan interference.”
However, my favorite part of the story is: “”As you know, we have glacier-like movement in baseball,” Solomon pointed out.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20071106_Baseball_GMs_vote_to_explore_instant_replay.html
One might argue that the shrinking of glaciers has been inversely proportional to the growth of Barry Bonds’ head over the last 30 years.
I think it makes sense, if only because in every case it has a direct bearing on whether or not one or more runs crosses the plate. It will be interesting to see if they adopt it, and if so, if they can keep it to that, or if it will ultimately extend to fair/foul calls down the lines, etc.
People mention the growing head of Barry Bonds, but no one notices how huge Tony Gwynn’s head is.
55 – Yes, but look at the size of the rest of Gwynn.
Well… that’s all terrible news. Kuroda’s sounds like he’s not really any different from Baek. Willis will command a serious package and may not transition well into this division. Balls.
Adding Cabrera would be sweet, I suppose, but he does not fill any gaping holes and would cost too much. If he were Erik Bedard, then its a different story. But an all bat righty (even an elite bat) is not what the club needs most and I wouldn’t want to see the farm bled dry to bring him here.
Dave, the best option for another pitcher in the off season from what you’ve written is Colon (though with some risks); is there anyone else that you would consider even a close second?
Dave has written that Colon is his preferred free agent pitching target, but not necessarily the top off-season pitching target. There are trade possibilities too. See here and here for some of his previous thoughts on potential trade targets.
Ha, nice irony. I make a joke about Perlozzo on yesterday’s thread and here he is today as the third base coach.
Fantasy land time -> Is it too late to convince Mazzone to come along and just pay Stottlemyre to go away? Mazzone + Felix = Good
#56 — apparently Tony has looked
word is Beltre finally has a Gold Glove.
oh, and Ichiro!, natch.
61 (msb) – Where did you see/hear this? That makes me very happy. I was really starting to think Chavez would never lose it because of perception. It really seems sometimes these people with a vote get their ballot, check names, and send it back within a few minutes.
I was thinking he would lose out to Lowell this year. I hope the word pans out–he deserves it!
Dave:
Why isn’t a left-handed arm that is a good bet for 200+ innings, K/9=6.5, BB/9=3, FIP=4.5 (or under) with significant ground ball tendencies a reasonable acquisition. Willis is overrated but with the exception of last season and a slight spike in his BB rate, he has been an above average starter.
I’m not suggesting he’s worth a a ransom in talent plus his salary but his likely salary of $9M next season seems like fair market value.
Adjust for the NL, Terry.
Also worth mentioning is that as a pretty good hitter for a pitcher, Willis has more value in the NL anyway.
60 – Good for Gwynn. And good for Beltre. I figured Chavez would finally lose it this year because of injuries, but having it go to a Seattle player would hardly be a lock.
Here’s a quick question:
The league effect is somewhere between .3-.5 runs/9 innings I think. Since FIP is basically adjusted to league ERA (basically league average FIP should be identical to league average ERA), is it appropriate to apply the league adjustment directly to FIP for starters?
Carlos Gomez at THT has attributed some of Willis’ decline to a gradual slowing of his tempo, so some of his issues may be fixable. I still wouldn’t touch him with the proverbial pole, though.
It’s bigger than that, Terry. Due to the current strength of the AL in comparison to the NL, the difference is closer to .8 runs per game right now. There’s about a .3 runs per game adjustment between league talent levels, and then about a .5 runs per game adjustment to account for the DH.
Ouch. The Rockies never had a chance.
Dave,
Didn’t baseball teams receive a preliminary report a while ago on who was doping and who wasn’t? Does this explain why the rumor mill went from hard 3 years / 30 million for Guillen to decline option and “the ball is in his court”?
#62– the GG’s
a lot of new faces
i’ve gotten so used to complaining the beltre has never won the GG, that now i don’t know what to do…but i am glad justice has finally been served…chavez shouldn’t have won it for the last couple years…
He sounds like a #5 starter – a fringe stuff strike thrower without an out pitch. We have enough of those.
Stone has him as having a mid-90’s fastball. Either the radar numbers are off or I suspect he has some more potential than just a #5, because your prototypical #5 strike thrower is somewhere in the 88-91 range ala Piniero or Franklin. Batista’s a better example of a guy with more juice on his fastball, and he’s more a 4.
I could live with Miguel Batista’s Japanese cousin at the right price, I suppose. Ryan Franklin, not so much.
According to Churchill’s scouting report, Kuroda sits 90-92, so the Franklin comparison may be more apt.
90-92 strike thrower w/ no out pitch sounds like Baek, and not just because they come from the same continent.
If he really throws mid 90’s with any semblance of control, worse come to worse you could stick him in the pen.
Stone was using Moyer’s radar gun, apparently. Was wondering where that went. Oooh la la!
Ha, nice irony. I make a joke about Perlozzo on yesterday’s thread and here he is today as the third base coach.
Fantasy land time -> Is it too late to convince Mazzone to come along and just pay Stottlemyre to go away? Mazzone + Felix = Good
Doesn’t the Basic Agreement limit the number of “Z”s you can have on your coaching staff?
Congrats to Beltre on the (much-deserved) gold glove. But the real news: no Jeter! Ding, dong, the witch is dead! Wow, NY lost its division, its coach, and its “gold glove shortstop” all in the same year. The end of an era? Or the calm before the storm?
Yo, Adrian — congrats!
With all due respect to Jimmy Rollins, though, I think Tulo may have gotten gypped this year.
Part of the reason the Gold Glove is a joke is that most Gold Glove winners win the award with their bats.
why, it is just crazy talk in Crasnick’s ESPN column:
“”Teams have been moving in that direction for a while,” said David Forst, Oakland’s assistant GM. “It’s not a new phenomenon. But when Cleveland and Boston have success in the playoffs with young players in pivotal roles, it certainly brings a lot of attention to the fact you can succeed that way.”
Said Kevin Towers: “Maybe we give a shot to a kid in Triple-A who we think might be a half-year away from being ready. Rather than going out and spending a ton of money when you have no history with a player, you can take a kid you’ve signed and developed and give him an opportunity.”
in an aside, having just tripped over the Sonics game, I am not sure what is weirder. Szczerbiak? the new look Swift? The fact it is Marques on the call with Calabro?
#41, I’m not a lawyer, but I am a law student and I can’t see why an employer shouldn’t have the right to punish its employees for illegal conduct. If a player got caught, say, shoplifting, or using cocaine, shouldn’t MLB be able to punish him even though there isn’t an explicit MLB rule against it? NFL players are frequently disciplined for criminal convictions, or even just charges. The caveat to this, of course, is that the player’s union’s lawyers are way, way better than a first-year law student!