2007 Free Agent Landmines
Every year, teams wander into free agency with money to spend and a desire to improve a specific area of their teams. Every year, a few teams end up giving huge amounts of money to the best guy available that winter because, well, he was available, and their goal for the winter was to get the best player they could for that position. It’s short-sighted thinking and almost always ends in disaster, but this kind of roster building will exist until the end of time.
This crop of players are the group I would consider Free Agent Landmines – players with enough value to appear to be an asset, but who are extremely unlikely to live up to the contracts they’re going to get this winter. Previous landmines include Carlos Lee, Barry Zito, Richie Sexson, Mike Hampton, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, and Jason Varitek. All good players in their primes, but not good enough to justify the salaries they demand on the open market.
Here are the guys that fit into the mold this winter. Teams who sign one of these players will be quite likely to experience significant buyers remorse a year from now.
1. Torii Hunter, Center Field
Torii Hunter just had a terrific year at the right time, and he’s going to be paid for what he was in 2007, not for what he’s likely to be in 2008 and beyond. From 2004 to 2006, Hunter’s offense was worth about 15 runs above an average hitter – combined. He had settled in as a pretty consistent +5 offensive player, which as a center fielder with some defensive value, made him a borderline star, but not anything like a franchise player.
In 2007 alone, he was worth about 17 runs more than an average hitter, his best offensive season since 2002, and only the second time in his career that he’s been better than +10 runs with the bat. There’s no change in skillset to indicate that he actually improved as a hitter – he’s still the same aggressive free-swinger that he’s always been.
However, there’s this belief that Torii Hunter is a perennial all-star type of player, and he’s going to get paid like a premium talent. Part of that belief is predicated on his defensive reputation, which hasn’t matched his actual abilities in the field for several years, and will only continue to decline as he ages. Whoever spends $100 million on Torii Hunter is going to get themselves a solid player for the next 2-3 years, but certainly nothing like the value they’re going to pay for.
2. Carlos Silva, Right-Handed Starter
Despite the fact that he’s posted seasonal ERAs the last three seasons of 3.44, 5.91, and 4.19, I’d call Carlos Silva one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. He does the exact same thing every single start – throw 90 MPH sinkers down the middle of the plate and let hitters put the ball in play. He has terrific command and refuses to walk anyone, so his results are almost entirely dependant upon the defenders he has behind him and the abilities of the hitters he’s facing. And, as you can see, those results can change wildly, even if Silva himself stays the same.
However, because Silva’s healthy, has a track record of throwing 180+ innings every year, and has gotten outs with his strikes, strikes, and more strikes approach, he’s going to get a multiyear deal for $10 million + per season. In reality, he’s basically just this year’s Jeff Suppan – a back-end starter with one skill that isn’t even really that hard to find. For all the whining about the scarcity of pitching in major league baseball, the minor leagues are littered with guys who have a very similar skillset to Carlos Silva. Ever heard of Nick Blackburn? I’m guessing not. He’s one of the candidates to replace Silva in Minnesota next year, because he’s basically the exact same pitcher. Blackburn’s just been putting his strikes and groundballs skillset to use in the minors the last few years.
There is almost no difference between Nick Blackburn and Carlos Silva, however. Silva has the name recognition and the track record, so he’ll get the big payday, but from this point forward, it’s a coin-flip to who has a better major league career. And it’s not like Nick Blackburn is a highly valued commodity throughout the game.
The strike throwing, no outpitch hurler is just a very easy skillset to find in a pitcher. Throwing a huge amount of money at Carlos Silva simply because he’s proven is a gigantic waste of resources.
3. Kyle Lohse, Right-Handed Starter
Completing the trifecta of former Twins, we have the most inexplicable somewhat coveted free agent in recent history. It’s essentially assumed that Lohse is going to get a contract in the $25 million range over 3 years. Why? I have absolutely no idea.
Lohse is what you would have if you took Carlos Silva, gave him mediocre command, and took away his sinker. He has below average stuff, average control, no outpitch, and was drummed out of the American League 18 months ago after posting a 7.07 ERA in 2006 before the Twins dumped him on the Reds. The move to the National League helped, as it would any pitcher, and made him appear simply not good instead of terrible.
The Reds sent him to the Phillies in a meaningless deadline deal this summer, and after pitching like the mediocre #5 starter he is in Philadelphia, even Pat Gillick doesn’t particularly want him back (quick sidenote – Gillick stole Brad Lidge from Ed Wade yesterday, and since I never say anything nice about him, here you go Pat – way to rip off one of the few GMs worse at trading than yourself). Lohse doesn’t have a strong track record of success. He doesn’t have good stuff. He doesn’t pound the strike zone. But, because he currently has a pulse, he’s a valued asset?
Every single 2008 Triple-A rotation will have at least one guy who could give you 95% of Kyle Lohse’s production for 3% of the cost. In an efficient market where major league teams understood how to evalute pitchers, Lohse would be lucky to get more than a few million dollars on a one year deal. However, he’ll stand as the new example of how badly teams misread pitchers, and he’s going to steal money from some unlucky franchise for the next few years.
#49: I’m sorry but I must disagree with you on Gagne. He is still a great RP, don’t be fooled by the media, he was just as a good in Boston as in Texas, he just got unlucky.
If you compare their numbers, he did arguably better in Boston. 9.6 K/G, BB/G 3.9, his line drive rate was significantly up and his GB% dropped extremely low to 33.3%. In Texas he had an 8.5 K/9, a 3.5 BB/g with a lower LD rate and a 41.8 GB%. Despite a dip in GBs and an increase in LD, everything looks similar except a large increase in strikeouts. The biggest difference was an extremely high LOB rate in Texas (84%) to an extremely low one in Boston (62.5%). His FIP-ERA in Texas was 1.43 (he got a little lucky). In Boston it was -3.58 (extremely unlucky).
Looking at his numbers, he compares nicely to a Sean Green caliber season (though in different ways, Green a GB who strikes out batters, Gagne a flame-throwing Fly Ball Pitcher). Buy low on Gange.He is undervalued by the market because “he couldn’t handle the pressure.”
I’m guessing that Gagne’s salary will be driven up by the idea that he’ll be a closer on some team. I think the Mariners have done a great job by putting together a solid bullpen without breaking the bank. Now if we can only get our pitchers into the seventh inning and save our bullpen a little…
I agree with Joser, $5 million and I’m sure as he did with Texas, there will be incentives a plenty!
49
There’s been some interesting discussion about Gagne’s struggles in relation to Jason Varitek’s pitch calls. I still wonder how much of an effect that may or may not have had on his performance.
Gagne was just as good in Boston as in Texas – yes. Gagne is still a great RP – no. That statement is incompatible with “he compares nicely to a Sean Green caliber season” (another statement which is again correct enough, as far as it goes).
Sean Green is a nice middle-inning or setup guy because he’s extremely cheap, as long as he’s not getting killed by groundballs getting through infield holes. Sean Green is not and will not ever be worth the kind of closer/ex-closer free agent contract Gagne can command. There is no “buying low” on Gagne.
And with Gagne, there’s the whole Scott Boras issue to deal with.
Any interest in Troy Percival to setup JJ?
54#: Perhaps I am overvaluing bullpen help or it’s cost. Maybe five million is to steep, I would need to look at other bullpen figures. But regardless Sean Green was a very good eighth inning reliever last year (though not always used that way). I think their is value in that. He would also be an overvalued trading piece at the deadline.
Furthermore, I believe his veteran experience will be mitigated by people’s bias towards the most recent performance. I already showed where Gagne wasn’t as bad as ESPN would have you believed. There is very good reason to believe he is a good bullpen arm. Perhaps I am overvaluing the Utility/Marginal Price of an 8th inning set up man, I don’t think so.
Five million? I’m not sure how that number was arrived at, it seems to have materialized in this discussion out of thin air. Including incentives, Gagne was reportedly paid $9.85 million this past season. Even his base salary was more than that, and all the incentives were because this was a make-good contract to show he was healthy again. Presumably now he’ll be looking for multiple years if possible, and expecting to shift more of his compensation to guaranteed salary instead of incentives.
You’re not going to get Gagne for $5 million this year. One of the most effective predictors of future compensation (after players have already passed through free agency once) is past compensation. Not that Gagne would be a particularly great value even at that salary level.
[off-topic]
Why the obsession with trying to fix the one part of the team that isn’t broken? The bullpen had trouble during (and contributing to) “the slump” but that probably wouldn’t have happened if they had been able to stay somewhat fresh — if the starters had been able to consistently deliver, say, 4 or 5 innings. There’s your problem.
I’m fine with picking up a bullpen arm on the cheap, or taking a flier on a guy that might not work out, but with the pitching market the way it is I’m not sure how many good deals are going to present themselves.
Unnamed “Al executive” (as quoted in the NYPost agrees with Dave’s take on the Lidge deal:
Why the obsession with trying to fix the one part of the team that isn’t broken?
I don’t know, to be honest. At least the organization seems to understand it’s not their primary concern right now (despite the machinations around the trade deadline, which are a different circumstance from offseason planning).
Richie had a spectacular year, a very good year and an awful year. He should’ve been an all-star his first year with the Mariners. He’s obviously overpayed, but would you really say he’s a landmine?
Greg Maddux re-upped with the Padres the other day for $10M, same as he made last year, in what was generally considered to be a good deal.
Most people using traditional analysis are lemmings as far as that goes, assuming that if the market rate (read: GM desperation and having a checkbook) for 180-200 innings of OK starting pitching is 10 million, it’s a “good deal”.
Dave’s point is that you take a different approach to looking at the market, you’ll find that the value disparity between the Madduxes and Silvas of the world and the guys stuck in AAA isn’t that great- certainly not $10 million or multi-year contract great. The Mariners should be concentrating on finding undervalued talent. Unfortunately, that’s a skill this management group is at best irregular in exploiting.
As for Gagne, he’s Chris Reitsma, v. 2.0: an attempt to solve a problem the M’s don’t really have (adequate bullpen depth) by sprinkling “veterans who’ve been through wars” on top of the bullpen like it’s sugar on your breakfast cereal. I’d pass, though with McLaren likely to be focusing on how the bullpen melted down in August and September and predisposed to do stupid thing (see: Parrish, John and White, Rick), I won’t be surprised to see a signing like that happen.
Richie had a spectacular year, a very good year and an awful year. He should’ve been an all-star his first year with the Mariners. He’s obviously overpayed, but would you really say he’s a landmine?
http://ussmariner.com/2005/01/11/updated-free-agency-rankings/
Hey, look, there’s Richie Sexson! Landmine Ahoy!
Let’s look at that list of bad contracts, by the way…
Derek Lowe: OK, looks like Dave blew this one.
Russ Ortiz: terrible
Richie Sexson: we already know how this one is turning out
Jaret Wright: pretty bad
Troy Percival: turned out awful
Pedro Martinez: has missed about a full season, was good the one year he was fully healthy
Eric Milton: terrible
Orlando Cabrera: has turned out OK, if perhaps overpriced at $8 million
Vinny Castilla: terrible
Corey Koskie: terrible
So, that’s 2 wrong out of 10, with only two seasons outside of Lowe and Cabrera (Sexson and Martinez in 2005) where you can argue that the team in question got anything remotely approaching what they should have gotten from a player they signed to a multiyear deal. I’d say an .800 batting average on bad FA contracts is OK.
When Dave talks about “landmines” he’s talking about contracts. What makes Sexson a landmine isn’t so much the man himself as the way the contract is structured. At $4.5M for the ’05 version of Sexson, the M’s got a good deal; but they only got that by backloading the later years. The ’07 and ’08 Sexson, at $14M apiece, are very much not good deals — and wouldn’t have been, no matter how he performed. And it’s not like that came as a surprise to anybody: time goes in one direction, and big lunky athletes over thirty only go one way too. Paying more each year as a player’s abilities get less and less is exactly Dave’s definition of a landmine (players “who are extremely unlikely to live up to the contract”).
Forget players, let’s talk about TV contracts for second (normally I wouldn’t link Thiel, but he used to be a TV critic so he may possess a little more authority in this particular intersection of sports and commerce). The last M’s deal was $300/10; the just-announced one is something like $450/12. So they should have an extra $7M or so to play with every year. (Or put in their pockets while mumbling about poverty.) That’s what? This year’s discount Jeff Weaver? It’s not enough to pay for Batista. It’s just enough to pay for Vidro. It might be enough to pay someone else to take Sexson. Or, if you’re a smart team, it buys you Victor Martinez and Joe Borowski. Or it pays for Grady Sizemore… in 2011!
Ichiro has won another Silver Slugger award…
Do you have Thiel mixed up with John Levesque? Thiel has a lot more credibility than that.
Paying more each year as a player’s abilities get less and less is exactly Dave’s definition of a landmine (players “who are extremely unlikely to live up to the contractâ€).
That’s beautifully stated. By backloading Richie’s contract, the M’s made him almost impossible to trade at this late date without forking over a pile of money. Baseball Reference shows his 2005 salary at $6m, then $13m for 2006, $15.5m for 2007, and (I assume) $15.5m for 2008. If they’d averaged it out, that would have been $12.5m per year. So to trade him, they should be on the hook for $3m in cash *plus* much more cash because of his eroded skills, knees, shoulder, and the initial badness of the contract. Good luck with that.
64 – I don’t disagree with you or Dave at all, my only point is that for a team on the bubble of being competitive (and it’s debatable whether that describes the Mariners, last year’s victory total aside), there can be real benefit to signing a league-average or slightly-above-average innings sponge for some rotation certainty. Isn’t that basically what the Indians did with Jake Westbrook, a somewhat similar pitcher to Silva, with the 3 year/$33M extension? They seem like a team with a pretty good understanding of the importance of undervalued talent.
I can’t believe I’m defending Silva, and I’m sure he’s going to be hideously overpaid, but as Dave said in the post, you know what you’re going to get. And unlike Lohse, who’s just going to be bad, Silva, in front of a decent defense in a forgiving park, could be a pretty useful part.
64: It is quite unfair to compare Gagne with Reitsma. One is a good relief arm, the other isn’t. So skipping the sentiment that Gagne isn’t good (he is), we fall to your second point. Why strengthening an already strong area?
There was a book called Good to Great. In this book, they developed the hedgehog concept. This is the concept that if you become very good at one thing, you will have the most success. Does that mean we should put all our resources into the bullpen? No, thats ludicrous. But with the starting pitching market, we should be taking cheap fliers (Colon, if you call it cheap). So should we have money left over it’s asine not to strengthening a strength. Just because you are good at something doesn’t mean it doesn’t need address. Actually if you do address it, it will move from being simply good to being great. An absolute instead if comparative advantge.
Therefore Gagne is a good arm, and at the right price, he will improve the team.
there can be real benefit to signing a league-average or slightly-above-average innings sponge for some rotation certainty.
Meet Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista (and, one could argue, that’s what the M’s were hoping for from Jeff Weaver- 180-200 IP of 4-4.5ish ERA). How’s spending 30 million a year on a succession of mediocre pitchers working out so far, since that’s basically been the M’s strategy since realizing that the Pineiro/Meche/Franklin/Ryan Anderson/Clint Nageotte/Travis Blackley group of “best young pitching talent in MLB” wasn’t going to pan out?
The Mariners would be better of looking for undervalued players as opposed to fishing a very shallow free agent pool, improving the team defense dramatically, and seeking ways of getting more bang for their buck by looking at trading for younger players who are cheaper and will be under team control for a while (e.g., Tampa Bay’s 6th/7th starters), while trying to develop their OWN inexpensive mediocre pitchers. Free agent starting pitching is buying at the absolute maximum price and risking getting the minimal return on your investment, and unless you are getting SUPERIOR players, isn’t as productive as finding underrated talent.
Do you have Thiel mixed up with John Levesque? Thiel has a lot more credibility than that.
Wait, you’re right, I do.
It is quite unfair to compare Gagne with Reitsma. One is a good relief arm, the other isn’t. So skipping the sentiment that Gagne isn’t good (he is), we fall to your second point. Why strengthening an already strong area?
Reitsma, before his arm fell off again this year, was a decent reliever. Gagne’s clearly a BETTER reliever, but he’s basically same song, second verse, a little bit louder: “ZOMG WE NEEDS A VETERAN WHO’S BEEN THROUGH WARS, he’s declined some since his injury, and he’ll likely be a multi-million dollar signing, if not a multi-YEAR signing.
I see no real benefit to signing this guy for 5-8 million, as opposed to letting pitchers like Mark Lowe and Cam Mickolio fight it out in spring training for the role of “7th-8th inning specialist who throws 96 MPH fastballs from the right side”. It’s just not that hard to come up with guys who can do this: in the past few years alone, for the Mariners alone (I could make this a LONGER list if I tossed in other teams like the Angels), Rafael Soriano, Julio Mateo, J.J. Putz, Mark Lowe and Brandon Morrow have all managed to have good-to-eye-popping performances in this role that are every bit as shiny as what Gagne could deliver. And NONE of them cost millions of dollars.
Speaking of undervalued players, I think guys like Baek and Feierabend have a chance to be pleasant surprises if given a chance, and they’d be less aggravating than gambling on a FA like Lohse (but you already [Weaver] know that).
On the other hand, those of you old-timers would really like Carlos Silva. He’s the new Billy Swift.
#76:Admittly Carlos Silva will get a fat contract mainly on account of the weakness of MLB SP FA market.
He’s about the best available and quite frankly you know what you’re getting an inning eater who benefits from a strong D and with the friendlyness of Safeco to pitchers will see some improvement in ERA.
#75:I agree the present bullpen as is now made up is solid and durable just needs better,longer innings from the rotation.
However if the FO and Bavasi feel such a need to add to pen as they seem to be thinking then I advocate the signing of LHRP Jeremy Affeldt.
He’s young but has been thur the wars with the Rockies and Royals with success and I think is know for a durable and dependable arm.
Affeldt is well worth the 3yr/5 mil contract it may take to sign him but I believe he’ll accept 3 yr/3 mil easily.
However if the FO and Bavasi feel such a need to add to pen as they seem to be thinking
…and your basis for saying this is what, exactly?
then I advocate the signing of LHRP Jeremy Affeldt.
He’s young but has been thur the wars with the Rockies and Royals with success and I think is know for a durable and dependable arm.
Affeldt is well worth the 3yr/5 mil contract it may take to sign him but I believe he’ll accept 3 yr/3 mil easily.
Hmmm. Where could you possibly have come up with that idea?
Except there’s no way he’ll be that cheap. Dave thinks the going rate for Mr Affeldt’s services will be more like 3 years / $9M. Dave admits he consistently underestimates the price of offseason pitching. Based on your other posts I believe you do also, but to an even greater degree. I guess we’ll see who has a better sense of the market.
you’re getting an inning eater who benefits from a strong D and with the friendlyness of Safeco to pitchers will see some improvement in ERA.
The M’s defense was terrible last year. Unless the team makes some serious defensive upgrades, Silva would be likely to see his ERA rise if he came to Seattle. The Twins were about league-average at converting balls in play into outs last year. Only three teams in baseball were worse than the M’s.
Mat, I was talking about Silva being a groundball pitcher in the Metrodome. I have yet to see park effects broken down to show GB/FB results, but you’ve got to think that the Metrodome absolutely kills groundball pitchers. Silva, had he been pitching in a park that was more suitable to his style of pitching, would probably have shown better results the last few years.
Silva ERA in Minnesota, 2004-2007: 3.88
Silva ERA on road, 2004-2007: 5.01
Silva FIP in Minnesota, 2004-2007: 4.32
Silva FIP on road, 2004-2007: 5.11
Silva BABIP in Minnesota, 2004-2007: .296
Silva BABIP on road, 2004-2007: .320
73 – You’re right, and really I’m thinking more about Silva’s inclusion on this list than I am about whether he’d be a good fit for the Mariners. I’m just having trouble reconciling my perception of him as an undervalued commodity with the fact that he’s now likely to be significantly overvalued as a free agent. Unlike other recent free agents with tantalizing arms but mediocre track records who’ve been rewarded for their potential with fat contracts (as Lohse is likely to be this year, Meche was last year, and Darren Dreifort was before them), Silva is exactly what he’s been the last few years, which is a pitcher who gives up well over a hit an inning and won’t strike out 100 batters in a full season. That’s not the sort of package that has interested traditional-minded GMs in the past, but however ugly his profile, Silva can offer real value to a major league rotation.
I guess his presence on this list as a top potential landmine is an indication of just how weak the free agent market is. Dave’s Jeff Suppan analogy is certainly apt. Someone will likely see him as Chien-Ming Wang Lite and sign him to a deal that blows my mind.
I just read that Geoff Jenkins will not be a Class A or B free agent, so another team signing him would not give up any draft picks in compensation. Signing him sounds even better now.
#82: Silva is exactly what he’s been the last few years, which is a pitcher who gives up well over a hit an inning and won’t strike out 100 batters in a full season. That’s not the sort of package that has interested traditional-minded GMs in the past, …
I disagree. Traditional minded GMs believe that knowing how to pitch to contact, avoid a big inning, and strand runners is a repeatable skill that makes a pitcher valuable even if he doesn’t get many K’s. They will look at Silva and see him as exactly that type of pitcher. Most of those GMs also attach value to proven veterans.
That makes Silva an attractive package for traditional GMs, and is what will garner him a multi-year contract at somewhere near $10 million per year. Meanwhile, the non-traditional GMs will avoid Silva.
I think Silva would make a great M, we need the strikes.
I honestly think a lot of GMs will simply look at 190 IP/yr and career ERA of 4.30 with the cursory perusing of his physical/medical report…
Silva ERA in Minnesota, 2004-2007: 3.88
Silva ERA on road, 2004-2007: 5.01
Silva FIP in Minnesota, 2004-2007: 4.32
Silva FIP on road, 2004-2007: 5.11
Silva BABIP in Minnesota, 2004-2007: .296
Silva BABIP on road, 2004-2007: .320
Hmmmm….
Now I would call that interesting. Especially the ERA. The other two numbes, eh. Not at all what you would expect, given what we know about that park. It’s only one pitcher, so we can’t make too much out of it, but it does get you to thinking. Now I’m very curious to know how all pitchers fare in the Metrodome, given their groundball/flyball tendencies. I just wish I had something that would give me the answer.
AT mlb.com you can obtain GO/AO splits by season, with home and away splits. That should get you at least part way to where you want to go.
Silva strikes me as a bit of a right-handed version of guys like Tommy John (a poor man’s, albeit), Randy Jones or Rick Honeycutt from years ago…someone else mentioned Billy Swift…and BR lists Ramiro Mendoza as one of his comparables (the latter two, of course, right-handed). Probably not quite worth the contract he’s likely to get if it’s in the $10 mil/year range…but agreed, he’s still of considerable value to teams which are strong on defense (particularly infield).
Question…is the M’s infield strong enough all the way around yet on a CONSISTENT basis (AB aside) to allow a guy like Silva to pitch to his fullest potential?
88 – Considering we have no idea who’s going to be at 1B next year, who knows? It doesn’t make any difference anyway, since we might as well plug in some undervalued AAA guy (like Blackburn) and spend the savings elsewhere.
87: I know it was only one game, but HoRam — oddly enough — had one of his few quality starts of the year in that building.
You may be on to something with that Metrodome head-scratch.
91- And he probably would’ve won if it weren’t for Beltre’s couple of errors. Seems that things were a little reversed there.
Dave – With respect to the sidenote about the Brad Lidge trade . . .
A) I was wondering why you see this as such a lopsided deal. It seems to me that Houston got rid of a player they have no need for in exchange for a fairly young and useful part in Bourn.
B) BP mentioned that Luke Scott might be shopped around. Left handed power, corner outfielder, should be cheap . . . should we be interested?
93 –
A) Because Bourne isn’t that useful, and not even hard to find. The other guys are the same way, and Lidge can be dominating and doesn’t make a ton.
B) Why don’t we just use Clement?
Nate Silver at BP completely disagrees with Dave on the Lidge trade:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=665.
Two smart guys… I’ll take the average and say it was a reasonably fair trade.