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	<title>Comments on: Winter Moves Begin</title>
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	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: Carson</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243110</link>
		<dc:creator>Carson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Nov 2007 19:18:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243110</guid>
		<description>80 - Players Felix&#039;s age with his service time don&#039;t generally get long term extensions. You earn your stripes as a young cheap option, then cash in with a big pay day.

If teams went out and gave big money all their young players who have obvious potential, they&#039;d end up with a bunch of busts and injured players who never reach their expectations, and a lot of blown cash. Let&#039;s leave that dumb idea to the NFL (See: Vick, Michael).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>80 &#8211; Players Felix&#8217;s age with his service time don&#8217;t generally get long term extensions. You earn your stripes as a young cheap option, then cash in with a big pay day.</p>
<p>If teams went out and gave big money all their young players who have obvious potential, they&#8217;d end up with a bunch of busts and injured players who never reach their expectations, and a lot of blown cash. Let&#8217;s leave that dumb idea to the NFL (See: Vick, Michael).</p>
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		<title>By: Bearman</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243076</link>
		<dc:creator>Bearman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Nov 2007 01:16:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243076</guid>
		<description>#51,67,and 73: I&#039;m not an insider just a very constant follower of all rumors,printed word and web searchs to gather a good amount of intel that allows me to make some possible conclusions that logically follow.
Add in what we all know is Bavasi&#039;s proven record of decimal trades,bust FA singings,and his haboit of overpaying veterans while rarely use that money to lock up young players unless forced by popularity with the fans.
Felix Hernandez who is so key to any winning rotation the M&#039;s may be able to put together in the next couple seasons as far as I know hasn&#039;t been offer an extension contract to avoid the arbitration years.

As to me being Bavasi think do you actually think any of those incompetent FO people read these blogs and forums?
The current FO&#039;s only real mission is to insure a fat profit not a winner however they do just enough to give M&#039;s fans hope thus keeps them coming.
ONly 100% housecleaning top to bottom of present FO with only few exceptions will the M&#039;s ever see a World Series contender in Seattle.
Then the new FO takes the tact that is combination of Beane&#039;s methods in Oakland with the real money needed to back it up with FA signs to make it work.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#51,67,and 73: I&#8217;m not an insider just a very constant follower of all rumors,printed word and web searchs to gather a good amount of intel that allows me to make some possible conclusions that logically follow.<br />
Add in what we all know is Bavasi&#8217;s proven record of decimal trades,bust FA singings,and his haboit of overpaying veterans while rarely use that money to lock up young players unless forced by popularity with the fans.<br />
Felix Hernandez who is so key to any winning rotation the M&#8217;s may be able to put together in the next couple seasons as far as I know hasn&#8217;t been offer an extension contract to avoid the arbitration years.</p>
<p>As to me being Bavasi think do you actually think any of those incompetent FO people read these blogs and forums?<br />
The current FO&#8217;s only real mission is to insure a fat profit not a winner however they do just enough to give M&#8217;s fans hope thus keeps them coming.<br />
ONly 100% housecleaning top to bottom of present FO with only few exceptions will the M&#8217;s ever see a World Series contender in Seattle.<br />
Then the new FO takes the tact that is combination of Beane&#8217;s methods in Oakland with the real money needed to back it up with FA signs to make it work.</p>
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		<title>By: smb</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243066</link>
		<dc:creator>smb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 23:57:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243066</guid>
		<description>77/78

From there it becomes easy to see how Billy Beane exploits the margins and ends up getting those second-tier players at bargain basement prices because they weren&#039;t the &quot;hot&quot; names on that list. Then they walk after he (probably) gets more than his money&#039;s worth out of them, and he gets the compensatory picks in return, thus exacerbating/maximizing the operational efficiency divide between the A&#039;s and the reckless spenders.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>77/78</p>
<p>From there it becomes easy to see how Billy Beane exploits the margins and ends up getting those second-tier players at bargain basement prices because they weren&#8217;t the &#8220;hot&#8221; names on that list. Then they walk after he (probably) gets more than his money&#8217;s worth out of them, and he gets the compensatory picks in return, thus exacerbating/maximizing the operational efficiency divide between the A&#8217;s and the reckless spenders.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Nelson</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243053</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Nelson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:54:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243053</guid>
		<description>#77 &lt;i&gt;And that is in fact a correct perception. The top-paid players should be getting more money, and the second tier tends to be a very overpaid group. So maybe more teams are figuring that out.&lt;/i&gt;

I agree, and I also believe that many teams aren&#039;t very effective at separating players into the appropriate tiers.  The result is that a lot of top talent money is given to players who aren&#039;t.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#77 <i>And that is in fact a correct perception. The top-paid players should be getting more money, and the second tier tends to be a very overpaid group. So maybe more teams are figuring that out.</i></p>
<p>I agree, and I also believe that many teams aren&#8217;t very effective at separating players into the appropriate tiers.  The result is that a lot of top talent money is given to players who aren&#8217;t.</p>
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		<title>By: scraps</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243050</link>
		<dc:creator>scraps</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:13:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243050</guid>
		<description>And that is in fact a correct perception.  The top-paid players should be getting more money, and the second tier tends to be a very overpaid group.  So maybe more teams are figuring that out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And that is in fact a correct perception.  The top-paid players should be getting more money, and the second tier tends to be a very overpaid group.  So maybe more teams are figuring that out.</p>
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		<title>By: msb</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243049</link>
		<dc:creator>msb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:12:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243049</guid>
		<description>&lt;a href=&quot;http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071113&amp;content_id=2299400&amp;vkey=news_mlb&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=mlb&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Sabathia gets the Cy Young&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071113&amp;content_id=2299400&amp;vkey=news_mlb&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=mlb" rel="nofollow">Sabathia gets the Cy Young</a></p>
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		<title>By: Steve Nelson</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243048</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Nelson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 21:26:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243048</guid>
		<description>#73: &lt;i&gt;So salaries continue to grow, but not at an “ever-increasing” rate; in fact, growth has been pretty steady (and low, in historical terms) for six years now. Of course, that’s the total, which conceals the variations: the “extreme” salaries like Zito and (it would appear) ARod and Santana, do get ever more extreme — though some of that is the product of more years. &lt;/i&gt;

Increases in &quot;extreme&quot; salaries might also result from some teams deciding that mid-tier talent has been overpriced, but top tier talent is more scarce and more valuable.  That doesn&#039;t need to be a universal perception; only a handful of teams need reach that conclusion to cause top salaries to ratchet up more quickly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#73: <i>So salaries continue to grow, but not at an “ever-increasing” rate; in fact, growth has been pretty steady (and low, in historical terms) for six years now. Of course, that’s the total, which conceals the variations: the “extreme” salaries like Zito and (it would appear) ARod and Santana, do get ever more extreme — though some of that is the product of more years. </i></p>
<p>Increases in &#8220;extreme&#8221; salaries might also result from some teams deciding that mid-tier talent has been overpriced, but top tier talent is more scarce and more valuable.  That doesn&#8217;t need to be a universal perception; only a handful of teams need reach that conclusion to cause top salaries to ratchet up more quickly.</p>
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		<title>By: Carson</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243047</link>
		<dc:creator>Carson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 21:15:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243047</guid>
		<description>69 - I&#039;d call his arm average, at best. Certainly not as bad as Damon&#039;s, but &quot;solid&quot; is a bit of a stretch. Arm strength isn&#039;t completely lost yet, but his accuracy leaves quite a bit to be desired.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>69 &#8211; I&#8217;d call his arm average, at best. Certainly not as bad as Damon&#8217;s, but &#8220;solid&#8221; is a bit of a stretch. Arm strength isn&#8217;t completely lost yet, but his accuracy leaves quite a bit to be desired.</p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243046</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 21:09:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243046</guid>
		<description>Maybe Bearman &lt;b&gt;is&lt;/b&gt; Bavasi?  It would kind of explain a lot....

&lt;i&gt;But seeing as how salaries (in my mind) seem to be escalating at an ever increasing rate, I’ve got no idea what’s the price for an “average” player at various positions.&lt;/i&gt;

Actually, that isn&#039;t true.  Using &lt;a href=&quot;http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2007&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;USA Today&#039;s payroll numbers&lt;/a&gt;, total MLB payroll growth over previous year:
&#039;99	19%
&#039;00	16%
&#039;01	17%
&#039;02	3%
&#039;03	5%
&#039;04	-3%
&#039;05	6%
&#039;06	6%
&#039;07	7%

So salaries continue to grow, but not at an &quot;ever-increasing&quot; rate; in fact, growth has been pretty steady (and low, in historical terms) for six years now.  Of course, that&#039;s the total, which conceals the variations: the &quot;extreme&quot; salaries like Zito and (it would appear) ARod and Santana, do get ever more extreme -- though some of that is the product of more years.  (And yes, league-wide total payroll actually dropped from &#039;03 to &#039;04, mostly because Texas cut its payroll in half from $100M+ in &#039;03, but several others cut their payrolls by $14M-$20M that year; interestingly, the big drop in &lt;i&gt;growth&lt;/i&gt; occured the year &lt;i&gt;before&lt;/i&gt; the luxury tax, which was agreed in &#039;02 and first implemented in &#039;03).

I have a spreadsheet where I was trying to figure out the average salary at each position, but it&#039;s a little hard to figure out the right calculation: do you throw out the league-minimums and just do the average of the free agent salaries?  Do you include only starters, or anybody who played that position at least &lt;i&gt;n&lt;/i&gt; times (what do you do about platooned outfielders, for instance)?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe Bearman <b>is</b> Bavasi?  It would kind of explain a lot&#8230;.</p>
<p><i>But seeing as how salaries (in my mind) seem to be escalating at an ever increasing rate, I’ve got no idea what’s the price for an “average” player at various positions.</i></p>
<p>Actually, that isn&#8217;t true.  Using <a href="http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2007" rel="nofollow">USA Today&#8217;s payroll numbers</a>, total MLB payroll growth over previous year:<br />
&#8216;99	19%<br />
&#8216;00	16%<br />
&#8216;01	17%<br />
&#8216;02	3%<br />
&#8216;03	5%<br />
&#8216;04	-3%<br />
&#8216;05	6%<br />
&#8216;06	6%<br />
&#8216;07	7%</p>
<p>So salaries continue to grow, but not at an &#8220;ever-increasing&#8221; rate; in fact, growth has been pretty steady (and low, in historical terms) for six years now.  Of course, that&#8217;s the total, which conceals the variations: the &#8220;extreme&#8221; salaries like Zito and (it would appear) ARod and Santana, do get ever more extreme &#8212; though some of that is the product of more years.  (And yes, league-wide total payroll actually dropped from &#8216;03 to &#8216;04, mostly because Texas cut its payroll in half from $100M+ in &#8216;03, but several others cut their payrolls by $14M-$20M that year; interestingly, the big drop in <i>growth</i> occured the year <i>before</i> the luxury tax, which was agreed in &#8216;02 and first implemented in &#8216;03).</p>
<p>I have a spreadsheet where I was trying to figure out the average salary at each position, but it&#8217;s a little hard to figure out the right calculation: do you throw out the league-minimums and just do the average of the free agent salaries?  Do you include only starters, or anybody who played that position at least <i>n</i> times (what do you do about platooned outfielders, for instance)?</p>
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		<title>By: thefin190</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/comment-page-2/#comment-243045</link>
		<dc:creator>thefin190</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 20:41:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/11/12/winter-moves-begin/#comment-243045</guid>
		<description>I think a better contest would be who is better at making a routine flyball look like a webgem.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think a better contest would be who is better at making a routine flyball look like a webgem.</p>
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