The Default Option
What happens if nothing happens this off-season? No, really, let’s say the M’s make no moves at all. None. They wake up the day before spring training, slap themselves on the collective forehead, hand out NRIs to anyone walking by, and head into the season. How bad are things, really? Or, to put this another way, what’s the baseline?
C: Johjima/Burke
1B: Sexson! WOOHOO!
2B: Lopez
SS: Betancourt
3B: Beltre
LF: Ibanez
CF: Ichiro!
RF: Jones
DH: Vidro
Overall, that’s likely to be a bit of an offensive step back, though we can argue about the why (Sexson rebound versus Vidro regression, Ibanez slide against Lopez progression, Jones’ ability to replace Guillen…). Defensively, you’re going to do better with Jones over Guillen, but then Ibanez isn’t getting any faster. So small step forward.
Rotation:
Felix
Washburn
Batista
Scrub
Scrub
Hey, it’s just like last year! Wheeeee! There’s a chance Morrow’s ready for one of those slots, if a small slot, but really, the team would be picking from the Baek & Co. Assortment Pack of Back-Rotation, Low-Cost guys.
Amazingly, this would not be an appreciable step back from last year.
Bullpen
Putz & a ton of dudes
I have every confidence they can put together a quality bullpen without spending on some veterans with longer resumes than Sean Green.
Where do they finish? That’s a 75-80 win team, and just scanning it over, though, it doesn’t inspire a lot of hope.
However, you can see where if they want to make improvements, the places where they really need help are quite obvious. Here’s the question, then — will the M’s, spending a ton of money this off-season and likely making moves, manage to improve on the team they’d field if they did nothing? A Sexson move would go a long way to start things in the right direction.
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Reality is a frightening concept, isn’t it?
Except in the case of the Mariners, there is a 0% chance that they stand pat and do absolutely nothing. There is a 99% chance that we give something valuable away in exchange for Garbage (thy name is Horacio).
What’s striking is the sheer mediocrity assembled. Ichiro, Felix and Beltre are the stars, but overall there’s really very little upside to that team. Jones could break out, I suppose, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’s quite ready to be a star. And the problem is, you can’t fix mediocrity like this in the free agent market. The best you can hope to do is upgrade from Truly Bad (aka Sexson) to At Least OK in a few places, and hope 3 Stars plus a bunch of average players gets you to 90 wins and contention. I don’t find it to be an inspiring strategy at all.
I feel a little bad for Sexson, since he is a big goofy-looking sort of guy who inspires sympathy, and when he hits a homer, he does hit it a long, long way.
But yeah, even if he rebounds, it’s not going to be enough of a rebound to make him a valuable player, it’s likely to be more of a dead cat bounce.
Yikes, that lineup just scares me if that comes into fruition. But as smb said, Bavasi is likely to make atleast one move this offseason, probably in order to excite the casual fan, like signing Colon or trading Sean Green for some garbage starting pitcher. I am not seeing anything, either from free agency, or trade, that would significantly improve this team.
Well wait, getting rid of Sexson for even a prospect or two would be a good deal for this team.
Isn’t that team basically the same as 2007? Offense and defense probably balance out, rotation’s the same, bullpen’s the same, etc. It seems like the standpat Ms are literally the 2007 version.
I think I would call it closer to an 80 win team than 75, but not by much.
As hard a it is to admit some times there are actually other GMs who think like Bavasi, so there is a chance that someone will look at their roster and say, “Hey, I need to get some middle of the order power to scare pitchers and to hell with everything else”. After looking at the obvious candidates there is a chance that either Baltimore, Texas, Kansas City, maybe even Pittsburgh or Cincinnati will think that makes a ton of sense.
DMZ, is your endorsement of moving Sexson necessarily accompanied by a corresponding move of Ibanez to 1B? That helps the club out a lot by putting a better bat at first and removing Ibanez from LF. Or is there another realistic option that you think the M’s would take that could still improve their performance?
By the way, I know that Ibanez would be bad a 1B, but I would rather have his glove there than in LF.
With the Sexson-Vidro-Ibañez logjam we’ve built, and the faith management seems to have in all three, it’s hard to see how we could manage a great leap forward.
@#1 – So there’s a 1% chance that we make a good move this offseason?
@#1 – So there’s a 1% chance that we make a good move this offseason?
Isn’t it a little early to make that call?
[No, it wasn't the best idea]
This is a pretty encouraging pot, Derek. Sure, the M’s are mediocre, but they have obvious avenues of improvement. Compare that to a team (also mediocre) like Toronto, which had league-average production out of nearly every roster spot. Improving that requires swapping out a bunch of guys for a small marginal improvement each time.
But improving a team like the M’s can be done with only a few bold moves. Improving a rotation spot gets a lot easier when you’re replacing Horacio Ramirez. Improving your 1B production over Richie Sexson should be a trivial exercise.
9
Anything’s at least possible. If the clue train finally makes its last stop at the Bavasi complex, maybe we finally start looking at some of that freely available talent, or maybe the dissatisfaction with Lopez turns into a trade for one of TB’s many young pitchers. I’m holding out hope, well, because a sliver of hope is all I’ve got.
My somewhat educated guess is that they overpay for a back end SP, overpay for a setup guy, cross their fingers with Jones et al. and the roster is otherwise what it is. I think that team is about what there was last year, and I actually have a bit more confidence in Jones than what is generally inspired. No, I don’t expect Adam Jones to be a star or even match/exceed Guillen’s offense, but I think he can approach the neighborhood thereof.
I’ll also extend a rare benefit of the doubt and take the Sexson/Ibañez hidden-injuries excuse at face value, and expect some sort of slight rebound, not what they were before, but better than this past season.
maybe the dissatisfaction with Lopez turns into a trade for one of TB’s many young pitchers
Unless you’re making other moves to go with that, your starting 2B is Willie Bloomquist.
The 2008 version of Lopez HAS some potential to be better than the 2007 version. Starting the Gritmeister basically locks in a .620 to .650 OPS at 2B, in addition to fairly poor defense. That’s clearly unacceptable out of a 2B.
Lopez right now is a great example of a player who is at his absolute nadir of value, playing somewhere (Safeco, aka Death to Righties) where his value will be obscured even more by his environment. Let’s recall he’s less than 18 months from playing in an All-Star game at age 22. If I was Billy Beane, I’d be offering Lenny DiNardo or whatever marginal arm had a semi-shiny ERA for Lopez in a heartbeat, because he, like Raffy Soriano, is likely to be traded because the M’s are fixated on what he isn’t as opposed to what he is.
The one thing that stands out for me is that the team could fairly easily shave quite a few runs allowed off of their tally.
There’s less hope for big increases in runs scored (though I’m probably the biggest Adam Jones fan here) with the improvements from Sexson/Jones eaten up by declines from Vidro/Guillen’s departure.
But moving Ibanez to 1B or DH and slotting Jones in left saves up to 20 runs, and there’s at least a possibility that playing someone other than Sexson at 1b saves some more (would that we had better options – i’m not arguing that Sexson is an awesome 1b, just that our options sort of suck). If you get improvement from Betancourt, then the DER *could* be better than last year just using the same guys.
The trick is RF. I’m pretty sure that Wlad Balentien would be better than Jose Guillen, but replacing Guillen w/Jones and keeping Ibanez in LF seems sub-optimal.
I get kind of frustrated at the notion that we need more superstars like post 2. A moderate upgrade at a few positions and this team is in pretty good shape. Jones in the outfield is better than Ibanez or Guillen. Almost anybody at first is better than the big Sexy, and I think their are pieces in Tacoma whether its Baek, Morrow, or whomever, that can fill out the back end of the rotation better than HoRam and better than Weaver.
Also, I’d like to see a post on what the odds are of the M’s trading away last years starters. For instance, is there any chance the M’s sell high on Putz for some starting pitching?
I don’t see any way we can move Sexson this offseason, even paying most of his salary. I’m resigned to seeing him at first on opening day, but the silver lining is if he has any kind of rebound (and I expect he will) he will be poised to be traded to a contender come summer. How much he rebounds will determine how beneficial that move will be.
I cannot personally support any plan that results in Raul Ibanez still attempting to play defense in Safeco Field’s cavernous left field.
Unless you’re making other moves to go with that, your starting 2B is Willie Bloomquist.
My guess is Tadahito Iguchi. Him or Ronnie Belliard, someone like that.
I almost posted something like this in an earlier thread — “What if the M’s do nothing?” — but then I got to arguing with myself: given the FA market is pushing GM’s to trades, and Bavasi’s “ability” at executing them, what are the odds a “Stand Pat” strategy wouldn’t actually be better?
I like the idea of selling high on closers — I think closers are easier to develop than a lot of people beleive, and I think a team could become kind of a “closer factory” that grooms a guy for a couple of years while developing the next one, then selling high and repeating. But that’s not without its risks, and you have to have the plan in place. Who replaces Putz? Morrow looks like the obvious candidate, if he had more experience and a little more control — but then, with more experience and control he might be a starter. This is one strategy that probably requires the right pitching coach, too.
Do we really think McLaren can win 75 games? You know McLaren is salivating at the idea of being able to plug all these old gritty vets into the lineup through their slumps.
At best this is a 75-80 win team, with McLaren at the helm I say 70 is more like it.
I really wouldn’t mind the same roster we have now, but instead plug some youth into the lineup and let them play and get experience. Clement DH or 1B, Wlad OF, Jones OF, the pitchers and see if anyone else makes some big strides this summer. Down with the one year plan!
w/r/t the OF/DH/1B logjam: I’ve discussed that before, and Sexson being tossed is the most likely way they get out of it. But right now, they might only try to get out of it if they can acquire a decent OFer and know they can move Sexson.
I think the market for Sexson’s not nearly as bleak as some of you.
My guess is Tadahito Iguchi. Him or Ronnie Belliard, someone like that.
Ugh, so we’d go from 2006 when Belliard was disappointing Cleveland and the M’s had a prospect in Asdrubal Cabrera, to 2008 where the Indians have Cabrera as a post-season-tested breakout player and the M’s are paying something to get Belliard?
Get rid of Sexson (obviously) and trade Ibanez while he still has value. (Sell HIGH). Ibanez is getting old and is certainly on the decline. Broussard would be serviceable at 1st.. while retaining some left-handed pop in the lineup. I don’t like the prospect of Raul at 1st base just as much as the idea of him playing another year in the OF.
Longtime lurker, finally registered.
I just gave up my 40-game weekday package of wonderful aisle seats in sec 129 in protest after 2007 and the ongoing roster construction/talent evaluation debacles — Sexson/Broussard, Ibanez/Jones, Turbo, Ho/Soriano.
I made a point to let the front office know specifically WHY a 10+ year season-ticket holder was not renewing his tix.
I’m still a huge M’s fan, though. I may put the $4K I spend on tickets into M’s radio spots for my business and watch the games on TV. At least I might get better value for my money.
I agree that doing nothing probably gives us a 75-80 win team; which is just what we should have had last year given the negative run differential.
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They see Ibanez as the face of the franchise. He’s not going anywhere. Barring some kind of huge scandal, they’ll make sure he retires a Mariner.
#26 — Trading Ibanez is highly unlikely. It might be more of a possibility than trading Ichiro or Felix, but it still won’t happen. It think that Sexson can be traded. Think of his contract in NBA terms. Sure, MLB has no salary cap, but any team taking on Sexson knows that the salary allocated to him in 2008 is available for 2009. Taking on Sexson involves no long term commitment, and the M’s will probably pay some of his salary unless they take back some monster contract in return.
Thank God Sexson is not the face of the franchise…and he’s got that DUI…that usually gets you a ticket to Detroit for two AAA MI slap hitters.
My guess is Tadahito Iguchi. Him or Ronnie Belliard, someone like that.
I’m kind of skeptical about that. Willie had a superficially good year (.277 BA), and this organization has a hard-on for local players and “intangibles”- plus his contract is pretty cheap if you consider him a starter (1 million or so). I could very much see everyone in the front office and Mac going “geez, let’s give the guy a shot, it’s his contract year”.
In a year where the supposed “solution” to the Mariner problems (starting pitching) is going to be riotously expensive and difficult to obtain, I could see everyone fooling themselves into thinking Willie’s the Port Orchard version of David Eckstein and a credible starter in the middle IF- and instead going for a cheap 500K-1 million IF backup from NRIs (or dipping into AAA if needed) instead of spending 2-4 million on a stopgap 2B on a one year deal.
29. Why couldn’t it have been Ibanez that got a DUI?
If the M’s do an honest assessment they will realize that they can’t turn next year’s team into a serious playoff contender. They would be better off using this offseason to set themselves up for making run in 2009. If they take that approach, they could take advantage of this offseasons shortage of free agent pitchers by trading Washburn and or Batista.
We could compensate for having to go with “replacement” level/ young pitchers by focusing on improving the defense. Trade our proven veterens and spend money on some short term stopgaps.
DMZ,
I think you underestimate the lengths this club will go to save face. I think for the most part, they have been hesitant to move Sexson because it would be admitting to the public that they made a bad deal on him. I really can’t think of a time when the team was willing to cut ties with a big money player that wasn’t performing– it seems like they always need an off field “secret” excuse to dump somebody.
I just don’t see the team moving Sexson unless we can get something for the team to show the fans in return, like a mid/backend SP or Lopez replacement. I personally think dumping him + cash for mild prospects is the best we could do for him and I would take it in a heart beat.
#31. oh, please. enough.
and fwiw, Sexson was charged with negligent driving & fined
um. Boone? Olerud?
Also, if you check out the video of Bavasi from the GM meetings (I believe), he basically spells out being committed to staying the course. Now, everybody knows that he could have been trying to boost trade value for Ho and Sexson, but on the other hand, he could have basically been laying out his plan to stick with what we have and try and only try to get a SP. As a half-season ticket holder next year, this scares me.
Well, I’d say trade Vidro and put Raul at DH.. but what the heck are you going to get for Vidro and Sexson.
If the M’s do an honest assessment they will realize that they can’t turn next year’s team into a serious playoff contender.
Well, there was a period this summer when the team was considered a playoff contender. Sure, it was fool’s gold, but you can imagine them convincing themselves that with just a couple of key additions… some magic dust sprinkled on HoRam….
If the M’s do an honest assessment they will realize that they can’t turn next year’s team into a serious playoff contender.
That’s just not true. There are many, MANY teams in MLB history that went from 80 to 90+ wins in a year. There’s just no reason a team that can spend $100 million in salary and run a profit should go “gee, time to pack it in for 2008 after winning 88 in 2007″- especially when that team has Felix Hernandez, Adrian Beltre, Ichiro and JJ Putz at the core of it, with guys like Adam Jones being slotted in. This is not the KC Royals we are discussing.
Now, the Mariner front office may not understand the nature of the roster correctly (see: playing Raul in LF), but if you handed this team, farm system to Chris Antonetti or some other comparable GM, along with the $100 million budget, as opposed to Bill Bavasi and the current Ancien Régime, I’m quite certain you could build a team with a legitimate shot of being 90+ win contender out of it.
The fact that there’s a lot of skepticism that the CURRENT front office knows how to do this shouldn’t be read that it’s impossible- it’s just difficult given the current front office philosophies.
If they take that approach, they could take advantage of this offseasons shortage of free agent pitchers by trading Washburn and or Batista.
What evidence do you have that next year’s FA market for pitching won’t be just as ruinously expensive and short on talent? This is exactly the problem I have with a “let’s cough up (insert season here) in November for a better shot next year”- you don’t know the future, and projecting ahead a full season is hard enough, let alone two.
Besides, signing Ichiro to a long term deal and then blowing up the team around him is flat-out disrespectful, as well as a waste of money; why should we have bothered to keep him if we wanted to tank 2008 anyway?
#39, ec: Right, but you missed the key word:
If the M’s do an honest assessment they will realize that they can’t turn next year’s team into a serious playoff contender.
Disfunctional organizations, like a lot of failing marriages and self-destructive personal behavior, suffer from the catch-22 of excessive ego and limited self-awareness: if they had the insight to see what the problem is, they wouldn’t have the problem.
I guess I see Ichiro as the ‘face’ of the franchise. I could see Raul as the sentimental favorite I suppose. The new ‘Dan Wilson’.
Would the front office really sacrifice the winning potential of the team just to keep a ‘face’ around??
As a fan, I want to see results. WINS. Not faces.
Dave and Others–It has been written quite often to educate us in the past, Left Field is huge. Perhaps more difficult than Right Field.
So why Jones in Right rather than Left? Would it be an improvement if Raul has to be in the field for him to move to Right and Jones play Left? Would that create a better defensive outfield?
The best option would be to get Ibanez out of the outfield. Jones has a cannon arm, that’s their “thinking” as to why he’s going in RF.
24 – are you calling us “bleak”? DMZ?
And fwiw, I’m still trying to figure out why Ibanez is the face of the franchise…
Its just so hard to trust the judgement of any group of alleged “baseball people” who actually think Raul is a legit defensive outfielder and that Horacio Ramirez is more useful than the ball bag.
My opinion is that’s all posturing. If they can’t find a replacment, we’re being prepped for a return of HoRam, not because he’s good, but because he’s cheap. Nobody in their right mind thinks Raul is a good defender, baseball persons or not.
I’m hopeful that at some point this season Sexson will be moved. It’d be great if he were traded, and I’m not picky about how much money we have to spend to get rid of him. But he seems to be on a short leash as far as fans go. If the team doesn’t do so well and Sexson isn’t “carrying” the team, the boo birds may show up again, and I think that would be the end of him here (though obviously not the optimal time to trade him).
I can see their thinking of Ibañez as the face of the franchise, though I don’t agree. Ichiro! has only a limited contribution in that respect, as he speaks English through an interpreter and isn’t the easy interview every team wants to have at their disposal that will go out and spin the season. And he’s Japanese. It may be different in Seattle, but racism is certainly alive and well here in Oregon.
I’m still trying to figure out why Ibanez is the face of the franchise…
Ask yourself, which player is the head of Mariners Care? Which player is always quoted when some major, non-game-related news happens? Who was the only player who made himself available for interviews after the losing streak hit 8 games?
Like Dan Wilson before him, Ibanez is the face of the franchise for public relations purposes.
If the M’s do an honest assessment they will realize that they can’t turn next year’s team into a serious playoff contender.
I don’t understand why you think so. The 2007 team was serious playoff contender … why wouldn’t doing the same thing in 2008 be possible? Are the bottom-end starters next season going to be even worse than last season’s model?
It’s probably (and sadly) more likely that the M’s are assessing the situation as “the message boards naysayers were wrong about us before the 2007 season started, and they will be wrong about us again in 2008.”
RE:44
Its easy to see why the Mariners like him as the face of the franchise. He’s a family man (I think he even had is kids with him at the original contract signing) and is pretty well-spoken. He isn’t controversial. The guy could be your neighbor or golfing buddy.
The Mariners, for the most part, are very conscious of their public image and perception as a fan and family friendly organization. Ibanez fits that mold.
#43-I understand Ibanez in any outfield position is a negative defensive move.
Jones was also a pitcher in High School throwing in the mid 90’s. I understand he has a great arm which I had always believed is Right Field. 1st to 3rd throw. Writings by the Authors here over the years have educated me to a different understanding.
So my question still is if Ibanez is going to play a position in the field, what creates the best defensive
alignment? Jones in left or right, Ibanez in left or right.
Understand Ibanez not in the field at all. Just wonder which corner he would be less of a burden.
Thanks
This is not a bad thing.
What’s bad is how they value his talents and skills. His bat has value, even if it’s not what it used to be. And as a left handed bat, he fits this team and park like a glove. That’s not a bad thing to have as a face of the franchise.
What IS bad is to have him as your every day outfielder….
46- well the video game (2007 The Show) have a glove icon for raul, so the developers at least think he can play defense…lol..
Personally, I am rooting for the Scrub brothers to make the M’s starting rotation. They can be like Dizzy and Daffy Dean of the famed “Gas House Gang.”
Go Scrubs!!1!
For one thing the M’s with the obvious holes in the rotation aren’t going to stand pat.
The biggest best chance to fill one of those holes is one of two possible trade deals with the Giants:
1)The M’s trade Sexson with $$$$$ say 8mil and a low level prospect(A or AA)for Lowry.
2)The M’s trade Sexson/Lopez/Morse for Lowry/Durham/and prospect Ishikawa.
This deal lets both teams dump a big salary (Sexson/Durham)and the M’s get a LHP and 1stB prospect while the Giants aquire a cheap 2ndB and utility guy who can play INF/OF.
The other biggest best option the M’s have to fill the rotation is Japanese full posting fee free FA market in Kuroda and at least 2 others.
I’m sure the M’s can work a deal for Vidro with Washburn with a cash consideration for prospects.
This clears the way for Balentien and the possible pursue if need be of Fukudome the Japanese OFer for left.
Makes Ibanez DH and opens the door for either Broussard or LaHair a shot at 1stB with possible dark horse on a short deal in Tony Clark.
lol…
I’ve read a fairly large number of silly rosterbation ideas in the past, but I have a new favorite: Packaging Vidro and Washburn together in the same trade. It’s like their mutual power of suck would cancel each other out. Maybe they can trade the pair to the Giants for Lowry and Cain?
One possible upside to doing nothing this off-season is the position it puts the team in one year from now. Several contracts come off the books in 2009 and hopefully some of our upper prospects (Clement, Balentien, Morrow?) will be able to contribute regularly.
Yes, getting contracts off the books is the only way to make that $100 million work for them. But I think the front office is more likely to find new onerous contract disasters to replace them than they are to put the money to wise use.
This is the consequence of Sexson-type contracts. It’s not the day you sign them that you rue it, it’s three or four years later. If only.
And remember, however many games they won this past year, they were outscored. In reality the baseline is slightly below zero, not above. So they could get lucky again, but they’re just as likely or more so to flounder and hit 70 wins.
I still think of it as the hundred runs problem. We need to find a hundred runs, on either side of the ball, to seriously contend next year.
I hope they do something… my boss was one of their biggest fans and his life was just tragically cut short. The message in his obituary insinuates that they need to step up in his absence (The Mariners might want to think about making him proud.) He grew up in Houston, so the Astros get tough love as well.
http://www.johnlylesanford.com/
I’d just turned him on to USSM and he was starting to appreciate the need for defense and the Adam Jones principle. Now I got no one here to hot stove it with
You know, considering this post was almost an invitation to it, the fact we went 54 comments before someone had to whip it out and start rosterbating is actually pretty good. And at least there’s some entertainment value. Vidro+Washburn? What do you mean I get less than I would for them individually? For an M’s Jumbo Pack of Meh the Giants are going to give up what?
C’mon.. it’s like when you were a kid and you thought TEN pennies was “more” than ONE quarter.
Right, but you missed the key word:
If the M’s do an honest assessment they will realize that they can’t turn next year’s team into a serious playoff contender.
Disfunctional organizations, like a lot of failing marriages and self-destructive personal behavior, suffer from the catch-22 of excessive ego and limited self-awareness: if they had the insight to see what the problem is, they wouldn’t have the problem.
I guess my argument is the exact opposite of that point: if the Mariner front office could do honest self-assessments and correctly evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the roster, the “market”, potential FA signings and trades, and alter their strategic thinking accordingly, they’d be able to make this a 90 win team, no problem. The block is that they can’t do that- they are fixated on “We won 88 last year, and gee, all that really stands between us and 90 wins is a starting pitcher, and gosh, Raul’s a fine OF, so we’re fine just plugging Jones in for Guillen, and maybe if Richie bounces back some we’re set!”. They DON’T make honest self-assessments or adapt their thinking, and that’s what is going to be the big block going forward.
My question is, do the M’s think FotF (that would be Ibanez) is a firstbaseman? Or do they think their options are Sexson, Moorse, LeHair, a FA, or a Veteran-aquired-in-Trade?
62: Basically that + Vidro.
The division will not be as strong as previous years. The angel’s Gary Matthews Jr. is not as good when he was with Texas for that single year. The angel’s are not getting the big bat A-Rod as everybody said. Scot Sheilds is not the Scot Shields two years ago. Their hitting against the Sox was terrible.
The A’s are and inexperienced team with all there young prospects. If they have the same bad luck with injuries last year they will not be a successful.
There is one main thing that will keep Texas away from contending is there pitching.
The point is if the M’s don’t make any moves you have to hope the other teams won’t make any big moves.
Wow, I don’t get it with you guys and Richie Sexson. He’s got a big contract, yes, but why would trading him be the answer? He’s one of the best hitters on the team, and trading him away from a team that can use that kind of offense would seem to make it harder next year to put together a winning team. Yeah, if you can somehow come up with a firstbaseman that can both hit and field, and get a DH that can hit better than Ibanez, well maybe then it makes sense to trade him away.
Somehow, I don’t see Seattle coming up with both a quality FB and DH in this offseason, so how does it make sense to trade him away? We need the kind of offense he can give us.
Peewee, the offseason is young. ARod isn’t the only “big bat” out there, and the Angels could still make a move. They’ve been talking that talk for several seasons now, granted, but they have the money, trades are always possible (and they have prospects to trade), and they’re at that “one more piece” point where an owner can smell the world series and a GM gets the marching orders to get it done.
The point is if the M’s don’t make any moves you have to hope the other teams won’t make any big moves.
Hoping your opponent does something stupid (or doesn’t do anything smart) is generally a recipe for disaster. It certainly doesn’t constitute a “strategy.”
If they have the same bad luck with injuries last year they will not be a successful.
Hoping your opponent gets unlucky is even worse.
Like at least one other commenter, you seem to be misunderstanding the nature of Derek’s post. He wasn’t suggesting the M’s shouldn’t make any moves, nor was he suggesting that they won’t. He was, as he said, using this “as a baseline.” The point is to have a mechanism to determine the moves they should make, and a basis for evaluating the moves they do make. The “default option” isn’t a strategy, it’s a metric.
I question the assumption that standing pat will leave them at about 75 wins. Last year they had not a whole lot go better than expected, and several players do worse than expected. Vidro was about the only player that significantly exceeded expectations. Sexson of course was way under expectations and should have at least a little rebound. The other big hole is Guillen, and while you can’t expect Jones to completely replace Guillen’s offensive production in his first full year, his defense ought to close the gap.
Where the M’s really need to pull a rabbit out of the hat of course is pitching, but I find it hard to believe that they can’t do better than HoRam and Weaver just off what they can find in Tacoma and the dregs of the free agent market. And if they do happen to land Colon and he’s serviceable that might be enough to get them over the hump.
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We need to pull a beluga whale out of a thimble with the pitching, not a rabbit out of a hat, unless we’re willing to move someone that has legitimate value in the market (aside from ‘teh untouchables’). I wish I could trust Bavasi to make the right move, but I don’t trust him to properly evaluate talent and don’t see why anyone would.
Is there anyone who sees our starting pitching being appreciably better next season, aside from maybe hitting an eyes-closed homerun with someone like Colon, meaning we sign him and he miraculously stays healthy all year and pitches somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-75% of his former ace abilities? Sure you can improve on Ho(rrible)Ram and Weaver…but you could teach my dog to throw and almost do better than those gomers. If you do see us winning enough additional games to “get over the hump” by replacing them with the “dregs” and gambling on Colon (gambling not in the contract sense so much as in the performance/health sense), please roll some of that up and pass it this way.
FTR, I agree that as far as the quicksand trap that is free agent pitching goes, Colon is about as good a gamble as we could make for a ‘big’ signing this offseason.
I also personally like Lopez and agree that his age is a major factor in his upside, but personally I would sell high on his potential for the right young arm from, say, TB, rather than wish I had pulled the trigger earlier as he continues to flounder in “Death to Righties” Safeco Field while looking like he wishes he was at home eating his mama’s homemade chimis and not showing much progress in the field or at the plate. Again, I like Jose and believe he has a shot to get a lot better (if he is willing to WORK at it)…but I also believe he is the only worthy-of-moving piece we have at the ML level with potentially buzzworthy market value that has at least some possibility of *maybe* be valued enough to get a live arm with lots of upside in return. I don’t trust our FO with that task, but I’m using my imagination here.
I am not expecting to win nearly as many games as we did this season with a similar run differential in the next season. That means cursory lateral moves and no great stroke of luck on any FA signings will have us watching the Angels again in October ‘08…playing for the right to be AL cannon fodder to the Sox as they head to the Series again. The thought of praying to be put out of our misery as we nosedive through late summer and early fall just so I can fully shift focus to NFC west football again is driving me to drink at this very moment.
I would sell high on his potential for the right young arm…
Umm, the time for selling high on lopez was last offseason. Also you’d be faced with one of the following as your every day 2B: Marcus Giles, Mark Loretta, Willie Bloomquist, or Jose Vidro.
Wow, I don’t get it with you guys and Richie Sexson. He’s got a big contract, yes, but why would trading him be the answer? He’s one of the best hitters on the team
Ummm…no, he’s not. Among regulars (using 450 plate appearances), he was the 7th worst hitter in the AL in 2007 (using OPS).
Among Mariners, only Lopez and Bloomquist were worse hitters than Sexson in 2007 (not counting September callups).
He’ll be 33 next month and he’s been declining every year since coming to Seattle.
Certainly he might bounce back. But to bounce back to being one of the team’s best hitters? Not likely.
Somehow, I don’t see Seattle coming up with both a quality FB and DH in this offseason…
Well, maybe they will find a quality DH but I agree, they’ll having trouble coming up with a quality FB since Mack Strong retired.
Damn, screwed up the tags.
#67,
I didn’t know that the M’s have ever had a ‘quality FB.’ As for the whole ‘rosterbaiting’ I don’t see where trading Sexson isn’t a bad idea. If they can find a taker for him and in a market where there’s GMs like Ed Wade around, it’s possible.
You guys are crazy. Heath Evans would have been a sweet FB if he got the chance!
But semi-seriously, I totally agree with packaging Washburn and Vidro for prospects.
I miss Mack Strong. He had so much veteran leadership and spunk.
I wonder how much we actually could get for Washburn and Vidro? I couldn’t imagine much. Vidro posted his second highest babip #’s of his career, which smells of a fluke. The other teams are going to realize that. Washburn probably has some trade value, but we’re not getting top prospects for him. I’m concerned about Washburn going forward. I think he’s one of those pitchers than are going to exceed xFIP and FIP, but his decline is obvious. He does well when he’s keeping the ball in the park and popping guys up. Those are usually non-repeatable skills though. He’s on a bubble, and sooner or later he’ll be toast. We’ve seen what happens when he can’t pop guys up and keep it in the park.
#78
Washburn has almost no trade value. And by that I mean maybe we could get a pitcher of Bud Lite for him. But definitely not a good beer like Mac and Jacks.
Oh, c’mon…I think we could get at least a six-pack of O’Doul’s to-be-named-lated for Wash!
#73, Ralph
You’re talking about last year, 2007. I’m talking about the upcoming year, 2008. We should expect Sexson to be among the best hitters on the team. Actually, the best expectation for him would be comparable to Ichiro as the two best hitters for the team.
What’s your basis for making that prediction?
I’d say some kind of green leafy herb.
Unless that leafy herb is a strong hallucinogen, it’s not a sufficient explanation.
“Pinch Running at 3B, Mack Strong”
And the catcher asks to be benched…
Nathaniel….If you are going to post here about Sexson – or really any other subject as a newcomer, PLEASE do us all a favor and research the former posts on this site using the TAGOTRON2000 or the search box – both located at the top right of every page. If you would have done this with regards to Sexson, and actually read the the thread from early in 2007 that was specifically about Sexson and how much of a boat anchor he was going into the 2007 season…maybe you would understand some of the comments and ridicule you are currently receiving.
72
I would be inclined to agree with you, except that you for some reason seem to think that Lopez’ value has plummeted due to one mediocre-to-poor season at 22 years of age and $420,000. While I am somewhat pessimistic about his future here for a number of reasons (both related to his development and otherwise), I don’t think it projects onto how other teams view him as part of a potential trade from a position of strength within their own organization.
Also, please tell me you do not think a team considers trading for Vidro, then smacks itself in the forehead and says, “Wait, that BABIP must be a fluke!” They don’t need advanced statistics to know Vidro sucks. The M’s are the last stop on that clue train route.
Gosh, it would hard to imagine Sexson as the BEST hitter even on a team as light-hitting as, say, the 1962 Mets.
In your mind, do you think moving Sexson is a tangible possibility provided simply dumping him is the goal or is there a chance they Ms could get something undervalued in return?
For instance, what’s your intuition about the possibility of trading Sexson + a portion of his salary for a “legitimate” option in the back of their rotation? By legit I’m thinking about an undervalued arm the level of a Belisle as opposed to one of the better backend cherries of Tampa’s rotation (which I don’t see as a realistic possibility for a Sexson scenario).
Unfortunately i agree that the Mariners will probably not make any moves that don’t involve the starting rotation. They could use a veteran reliever not named Rick White.
I also think Sexson should stay, because he will be better and they wouldn’t get much for him. Vincente Padilla? I’d rather watch Sexson walk than take on that bad contract.
No, Walrus, I’m not going to go looking for old back posts about Richie Sexson. I don’t need to know what the prevailing opinion here was before the 2007 season to form an opinion on what he’s likely to do in 2008. For that, all I have to do is look at his batting record, which is easily found many places online.
And I wasn’t aware of any ridicule aimed at me — although, if someone feels like doing so, well that’s fine. Things like that certainly aren’t going to bother me.
Torrealba-To-Mets Falls Through
what? they suddenly realised that it was Yorvit they were talking about signing?
91 – I can certainly understand expecting some kind of rebound from Sexson, but what makes you think he’ll have an epic rebound? Do you simply ignore last season? How are you defining best hitter?
Sexson’s batting record shows a continuous 3-year slide culminating with a huge dropoff in 2007.
There is nothing I see in there indicating that this is a one-year fluke, as opposed to a player doing what big guys with old-player skills often tend to do: decline throughout their early 30’s culminating in a precipitous decline as they get into their mid 30’s.
Not always, but often. I see nothing in Sexson’s 3-year trend indicating that he’s not in that career path.
What do you see in his past record that indicates otherwise?
jlc:
You certainly can’t ignore last season — it’s part of his career record and should be considered, as all years should be. Why wouldn’t he rebound? He’s been a excellent hitter for the bulk of his career, and at 33, he shouldn’t have lost most of that ability. It’s not likely he has the same talent level that he did during what is normally a players peak years (mid-to-late 20’s), but he probably still retains a good deal of that ability right now. Enough to project him in the range of, say, an OPS+ in the low -to-mid 800’s. As such, in any reasonable scenario involving the Mariner’s hitters next year, that would make him among the best hitters on the team.
If you kept him at FB, (assuming Mack Strong doesn’t come back), that would make him basically around league average. Better yet would be acquiring a real firstbaseman, and moving Sexson to DH. We get his plus bat without sacrificing anything on defenese. Still probably not worth $14MM, but more agreeable than giving him away for very little and ending up paying for him to hit well for some other team.
Why don’t we put it another way. If you had to make a list of the players most likely to win a comeback player of the year award next year, wouldn’t Sexson’s name be high up on that list?
(Just as an aside, I’d have to include Dontrell Willis in there too)
I have not seen any evidence to indicate that either Richie Sexson or Dontrelle Willis will get more than a dead cat bounce next year.
At least in Sexson’s case, though, you could increase his potential trade value if you could get an NL team interested in him, since that’d help camouflage his evidently declining skills.
Willis is already in the NL, and if he moves to the AL, he’s going to get worse next year, not better.
Do you hear me, Mr. Bavasi? Stay far, far away.
Sexson’s batting record shows a continuous 3-year slide culminating with a huge dropoff in 2007.
His batting record sure does — but we don’t know what that says about his performance during that time. We can probably assume that his talent level and performance were declining during that time, but very unlikely at the rate that his stats were. He was most likely experiencing the normal gradual, steady decline that most players do during their 30’s.
There is nothing I see in there indicating that this is a one-year fluke, as opposed to a player doing what big guys with old-player skills often tend to do: decline throughout their early 30’s culminating in a precipitous decline as they get into their mid 30’s. What do you see in his past record that indicates otherwise?
If you look at his batting record, you’ll see that last season was way way different than any other he’s had. That would be a good indication that it’s a one-season fluke. Also, if you look through baseball history at boatloads of other players careers, you’d see that most players experiencing similar sudden declines in production almost always rebound. (go here http://www.baseball-reference.com/ and spend a few hours looking players up, and you’ll see what I mean)
Players as a whole tend to decline at a gradual, steady rate during their 30’s. They don’t experience a sudden precipitous decline as you suggest. Well, for the most part they don’t. I definitely think that a small minority of players do, whether due to injury, lack of conditioning, bad lifestyles and/or habits, disease and disorders, etc.. But on the whole it’s just a slow, steady decline until they give it up or teams think they no longer have the ability to help them. Big players, as you refer to them, are no different.
I have not seen any evidence to indicate that either Richie Sexson or Dontrelle Willis will get more than a dead cat bounce next year.
Of course you haven’t — baseball hasn’t played next year yet, have they?
If you don’t think that past performance has predictive power in regards to future performance, this probably isn’t the site for you.
If you don’t think that past performance has predictive power in regards to future performance, this probably isn’t the site for you.
If we actually knew what a players past performance was, then it would have predictive power. Unfortunately, we don’t know that. We can only infer performance by looking at production, and we can’t have much confidence that we’re making correct assumptions when we do that. We have to do it, though, unless you would want to switch to an entirely scout-based approach to analysing baseball. So while using statistical means to make judgements and evaulations of baseball has an inherent challenge to it, it doesn’t mean we can’t use it. We just have to understand it’s characteristics and use it correctly.
If you don’t understand the basic underpinning concepts of using statistics to analyse baseball, then maybe it isn’t for you, Jeff.
So while using statistical means to make judgements and evaulations of baseball has an inherent challenge to it, it doesn’t mean we can’t use it.
Yes, but you’re doing it wrong.
Nathaniel-
We are not going to look up numbers and try to understand your argument. You need to bring the numbers to the table and state your argument that way instead of telling us to look at his batting record.
To that I imagine we will state some other numbers and shut your reasoning down because there is no way Sexson is the 2nd best hitter on the team next year.
Just as an aside, isn’t this going to be a contract year for Sexson? Isn’t he going to be looking for one more contract to finish his career? I’d like to assume that we could expect good things from him this year. I feel like moving him at this point would be foolish since in any case that I can imagine moving him we are going to have to pay for it. We certainly could see Sexson bounce back.
Nathaniel’s positive view of Sexson made me curious, so I did some research on B-ref, as he suggested (BR PI is awesom, BTW). I ran this search for 1Bs/DHs/OFs
Age 30-35 HR>15, BA<.220, OBP<.325, OPS+<100
with these results.
Player Age BA/OBP/SLG OPS+ OPS+ Next 3 years
R. Sexson 32 205/295/399 84 ???/???/???
D. Kingman 33 204/208/432 99 79/132/104
G. Vaughn 31 216/332/393 93 156/117/118
R. Deer 30 179/314/386 92 144/84/OUT
D. Henderson 34 220/275/427 91 78/OUT/OUT
G. Thomas 32 209/310/379 89 53/112/86
R. Deer 32 210/303/386 84 OUT/OUT/OUT
J. Burnitz 33 215/311/365 80 105/121/94
L. Stevens 34 204/305/377 79 OUT/OUT/OUT
While there is some precedent to hope for a bounce-back,there is also reason to think this year could signal that Sexson’s career is over.
Sorry for the format, it looked fine in the entry box.
Well, BR has Cecil Fielder and Willie Stargell as Sexson’s most comparable through age 32. Fielder was already on the downhill slope of a rapidly accelerating slide in his age 32 year (’95); Stargell was actually in the middle of the best three years of his career (’72-’74) and had another 5 or 6 great years after that. But Sexson just had the worst year of his career — the kind of year Stargell never had, and Fielder didn’t have until the end of his career, so I don’t know how comparable either of those are at this point. (And the next most-comparable to Sexson are Tino Martinez and Darryl Strawberry, which is its own kind of good-news-bad-news pairing).
Now, I don’t think anybody is denying Sexson might do better next year. It’s not like he could do much worse and remain on the team; $15M or not, the Brett Boone memorial news conference beckons. This is especially true if he was hurt most of last season, and he either hid it (a la Ibanez) or was run out there to “play through it” regardless. If that was the case, and he’s healthy now, and his mechanics and his psyche didn’t get screwed up in the process, then certainly he could rebound. But that’s a lot of ifs. And even if he did rebound, there’s no certainty he would rebound to the point where he was the “second best” hitter on the team; after all, we would hope that everybody else improves too, not to mention any new additions to the lineup. And it’s almost impossible for him to rebound to the point where he’s worth his ‘08 salary, “second best” hitter or not.
That said, I share Derek’s opinion that Sexson probably is tradable, but only because there are other players out there with contracts of equivalent awfulness. And given that every GM hopes for a rebound, and every GM thinks a “change of scenery” might help, and every GM gets sick of looking at his bad decision sitting on the bench every day, it’s quite possible there’s a trade partner out there.
Oh, look: the A’s traded their Bloomquist for a couple of hard-throwing minor leaguers. Who wants to lay odds one of them turns out to be another Haren? Or at least a Gaudin?
That said, I share Derek’s opinion that Sexson probably is tradable,
I would think so too……and if the right trade scenario came along, I could see it being good for the M’s. But that would sure be dependent on finding a 1B and DH that would give us Sexson’s level of performance. If we can’t, we save $14MM (or whatever the exact number is), but reduce our chances of winning, which doesn’t seem like the best move to me. well, like I said, maybe under the right scenario where the pieces fall in place and we improve our lineup as a whole, but that sure seems to require a lot more things to happen than just a Sexson bounceback.
snapper, I really hope you’re not serious with pulling a list like that out. I don’t mean to single you out, because a lot of people seem to like doing that and thinking that it’s really telling us something we can accept with confidence. The main problem with that kind of approach is that when you using statistics to try to narrow things down to that level, the less likely you can be that you’re getting some kind of applicable data. I mentioned earlier certain principles of using statistics to evaluate baseball (or anything, really), and one of the most important is realizing that statistics work great for studying really large sets of data, but they start to break down the more you limit your scope. As it applies to baseball, if you start narrowing down your scope to include a small subset, such as 8 players, you are reducing your confidence that it has any meaning to what you’re studying. There are about 15,000 players (or something like that) in the history of baseball, and even with that many, it’s hard to get a really good study of the effects of aging that we can accept as being any more a rule of thumb. Making a narrow study of 8 players to try to tell you something about one other player just doesn’t give us any confidence that it’s accurate.
But since you did bring up Kingman, there are some parallels to Sexson, at least superficially. In particular, notice Kingman’s age 32, 33, and 34 seasons. He went through a period that looks like what someone might call “a precipitous decline”. Yet it apparently wasn’t, as he carried on quite substantially better over the next 2 seasons. And as bad defensively as he was (you know the old Letterman joke — “why did Dave Kingman put pinetar on his forehead?……To catch those line drives! [badda boom]), he still had major league teams interested in his services until he was 37.
But that’s only one player — I’d be the last one to tell you that it has any significance when discussing Richie Sexson. But since you brought up his name, I couldn’t resist saying something about him. Dave Kingman is just like that, I guess.
FWIW, ZiPS project Sexon at .234/.323/.441, which is just terrible for a 1B. Also, this is sorta important:
Year HR/Fly ball
2004 32.7%
2005 25.0%
2006 20.0%
2007 16.8%
That isn’t a one year fluke, that’s a serious, continuous drop off in power. Granted, his BABIP was low last year, but given how often he strikes out, you really aren’t going to see much of a bounce back in production even if it does normalize.
PS. Sorry in advance if the formatting doesn’t work out.
FWIW, ZiPS project Sexon at .234/.323/.441, which is just terrible for a 1B.
Yeah, I’ve seen that. You might also notice how it projects the Mariners as a whole with a pretty negative slant. Ichiro, as I recall, was at about a .780 OPS, while most of the other regulars were below that. It doesn’t think much of the Mariners’ hitters next year. I can’t remember where that is right now, could you point us to it?
As for the HR/FB ratio, it may mean something, or it may not. Certainly you would expect Safeco field to be responsible for some of that reduction. Much of the rest of may well be the result of random occurence, which can heavily influence results. Or maybe not, and Sexson really is suffering from a reduction in power. What we know mostly is that he has been a really good power hitter for his career, and most players don’t lose their ability to hit for power that rapidly.
Uhh, Sexson has been hitting in Safeco since 2005. Unless you’re somehow arguing that Safeco has become a different hitting environment since then.
As far as the rest goes, you’re not going to get much traction for your concept of statistics here.
nathaniel, what is the difference between a player’s performance and his production? Granted, he can be unlucky and continually hit balls to defenders, thereby losing hits. That’s kind of the BABIP thing. Are you saying there are no metrics that separate the two?
Do you reduce his offense performance by his defense, or are you one who thinks his defense is average to above?
Nathaniel,
The sample is only 8 because Sexson had a truly miserable year. I guess its not easy to hit that bad and keep your job.
re Kingman. I said there was reason to hope for a bounce back. Vaughn was excellent, Deer was very good, Kingman was also very good(though it was two years later) and Burnitz also bounced back.
I think Sexson could bounce back to 260/340/500 but that just mediocre for a poor defensive 1B.
But, I don’t think you can dismiss the possibility that his career is effectively over.
A player’s performance are the actions he takes on the field. Things like tracking pitches, selecting pitches, swinging at pitches, running the bases, tracking a ball off the hitter’s bat, running after the ball, feilding the ball, throwing the ball. Things like that. He performs these actions.
As a result of those actions, baseball events happen, such as being safe at first, or being out because the ball bounced on the ground and was thrown to a man covering first base before the batter could reach it, or hitting the ball over the wall and being awarded a trip around the bases, or being called out by the Ump on the bases, or being out after three pitches are determined to be strikes.
We then define and name some of these results and keep track of them as statistics, which is what we see as the statistical record. So the statistical record is our measurement of the results of a player’s performance.
I’m not sure what your question is about seperating the two with metrics. We have only a few accurate metrics that directly describe performance, and most of those are focused on the pitcher’s performance, such as velocity and some of the new fx data that give us movement and release point. Until very recently, evaluating performance has been relegated almost entirely to the scouts, with almost no reliable standards that have been applied uniformly. Even the radar guns that have been in use for many years have varied in their method and reporting, and are quite often calibrated too infrequently. For hitters, there is still very little in the way of metrics, and it’s my opinion that scouting, while certainly very useful in some ways, is wildly inconsistent and lacks in measuring many things that can make a hitter successful or not. Can you measure things like tracking pitches, distinguishing type of pitch and speed, reaction time in certain situations, commitment to learning, ability to learn, memory, co-ordination? Is there a metric that is going to tell you these things?
Scouts can be pretty good at seeing those things with thier eyes, but there have been so many misjudgements of players talent and abilities throughout the years that you can’t say that scouting catches everything.
You asked my opinion of Sexson’s defense. It sucks, pretty much. I think most people around here, and most scouts, would be in agreement with me.
Jeff, I was refering to the difference between his HR/FB rate from 2004, when he played for Arizona (for 90 at bats) and 2005-2007, when he was playing for the Mariners. Unfortunately, we were only presented with the years from 2004 going forward. I don’t know what his rate was before that time, and whether or not his rate from Arizona for 2004 is a good representation of that.
(and stop being so snooty or I’m going to roll my eyes at you)
I widened my search criteria to get some more comps for Sexson.
Player Age BA/OBP/SLG OPS+ Next 3 years OPS+
Gerry Martin 31 227/281/419 88 85/96/neg.
Ed Sprague 30 222/280/403 76 104/90/neg.
Dale Murphy 33 228/306/361 89 99/103/neg.
Ron Gant 32 229/310/388 83 114/97/106
S. Brosius 33 230/299/374 70 105/OUT/OUT
T. Brunansky 30 229/303/390 87 118/58/89
G. Gaetti 31 229/274/376 76 86/70/92
neg. means negligible playing time (<100 AB)
Again, a good number of rebounds to average OPS+, but a bunch of guys who were near the end. And not a lot of performances that would be acceptable for a very poor defensive 1B.
If the Mariners can get rid of Sexson, and get any talent or salary relief at all, they probably should.
Well, I hope you’re right, but I still can’t figure out what you’re basing it on and I’ve already used up my off-season thinking-about-Sexson time.
“But that would sure be dependent on finding a 1B and DH that would give us Sexson’s level of performance.”
current performance or hoped-for performance?
All we can hope for is, Richy Has a fair to good opening 2 months in 08. Which has never happened for him, In hopes the trade will come before the deadline. So we can go forward with the youth movement and not lose any more time on gritty Vets that can no longer cover their ground.
Allas, I am pretty sure that will not happen. And the old man Richy will be stuck in Seattle tell the end. He reminds me of a player that has lost his sight of the ball and can no longer see spin. He is up there guessing…
The argument that “players as a whole don’t drop off dramatically” seems to have gone unrefuted in the general sandstorm of crazy statements in this thread, so let me just say this:
That the player population on the whole doesn’t suddenly drop at age 36 does not mean that players, as individuals, don’t suddenly have their careers end at 36.
There are many reasons this is so, which will occur to anyone who takes some time to think about the issue.
Beyond the larger logical fallacy, I just can’t believe that anyone who’s been around for the Mariners of the last five years wouldn’t realize that immediately.
“But that would sure be dependent on finding a 1B and DH that would give us Sexson’s level of performance.”
current performance or hoped-for performance?
As far as I know, Sexson doesn’t have a current performance. It’s the off-season for the major leagues. What I was refering to was Sexson’s expected level of performance next year.
Well, I hope you’re right, but I still can’t figure out what you’re basing it on and I’ve already used up my off-season thinking-about-Sexson time.
So I’ll keep this brief for you, then. I’m basing it really on two specific things: 1) the fact that Sexson, for the bulk of his career to this point, has been a very good hitter, who happened to suffer through an uncharacteristically bad year; 2) from what we know about aging patterns for players as a whole, a player with his level of hitting ability should not have lost such a significant portion of that ability to hit.
Which leads me to conclude that last year was just simply a bad year, which if you are familiar with how players careers can show great variance from year-to-year, is not something very unusual at all. Players have bad years once in a while. It’s just a fact of life in baseball. Absent of any other obvious contributing factor, such as debilitating injury or poor conditioning, random occurence is the likely culprit for being the primary driver for years like this that are wholly inconsistent with a player’s career as a whole. When we see a player exhibit results like this that are so anomalous from what is usual, we should expect the player to rebound back to “more or less” the level they were at before.
Oops. Shortness, I said.
He had a bad year, as have many players before him, most likely due to random occurence (and in Richie’s case, quite possibly injury dragging down his performance). No reason to think he all of a sudden has lost his ability to hit.
I just captured a crow the size of Madagascar and am holding it in my barn, where I’ll be fattening it up on McD’s all winter so it’ll be nice and juicy for you to eat throughout all of ‘08.
Sexson can put up an .820 OPS next year, and keeping him will still be a bad idea.
This is whacky enough as it is, but let me just say that if Sexson “rebounds” to the “low-to-mid 800s”, with his terrible defense at first base he will still be a liability on the roster.
This is whacky enough as it is, but let me just say that if Sexson “rebounds” to the “low-to-mid 800s”, with his terrible defense at first base he will still be a liability on the roster.
I’m not going to disagree with you there. Well, at least not strongly. He should be “around league average” if he plays 1B and hits at that level. I don’t know if you could call that a liability, but if you build a team around a bunch of “around league average” guys, like the M’s did last year, well, that’s what you’ll get. Around league average, which the Mariners were last year.
Sexson can put up an .820 OPS next year, and keeping him will still be a bad idea.
Not if he does that at DH. That actually is pretty good production from the DH position. I still wouldn’t be able to buy into the idea that he’s worth the money they’re paying him, but are we really going to be able to unload his salary, get something of value in return for him to replace a lost position, and use the savings to upgrade in another area ?
Hey, I’d be all for that, if it could be pulled off. Can it be done?
Realistically, Sexson isn’t going to DH. And since Vidro isn’t going anywhere, trading Richie’s our only hope for getting Raul out of left field.
We should expect Sexson to be among the best hitters on the team. Actually, the best expectation for him would be comparable to Ichiro as the two best hitters for the team.
I don’t see why we should expect that, since Raul outhit him in 2006 and 2007, and Adrian Beltre outhit him in 2007.
So I’ll keep this brief for you, then. I’m basing it really on two specific things: 1) the fact that Sexson, for the bulk of his career to this point, has been a very good hitter, who happened to suffer through an uncharacteristically bad year; 2) from what we know about aging patterns for players as a whole, a player with his level of hitting ability should not have lost such a significant portion of that ability to hit.
Richie Sexson wouldn’t be the first Mariner 1B to go pfft pretty fast.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/davisal01.shtml
Sexson’s the classic “old players skills” kind of ballplayer- slow, game based on power and walks. These sorts of players don’t age well (Bill James did research on this, comparing them to younger, faster ballplayers). While I won’t be surprised to see a dead cat bounce to his stats, I don’t think you can assume he’s going to be his .345/.520 self next year.
Richie Sexson wouldn’t be the first Mariner 1B to go pfft pretty fast.
He certainly went pfft for about one year worth of play at the age of 30. Of course, we have no way of knowing what his 30’s would have looked like because he didn’t play anymore after that. I have no idea how this applies to Richie Sexson, other than it’s somehow a reply to one of my posts and Alvin Davis was a Mariner firstbaseman.
Is this supposed to mean something?
Sexson’s the classic “old players skills” kind of ballplayer- slow, game based on power and walks. These sorts of players don’t age well (Bill James did research on this, comparing them to younger, faster ballplayers). While I won’t be surprised to see a dead cat bounce to his stats, I don’t think you can assume he’s going to be his .345/.520 self next year.
I’m sure most younger, faster ballplayers will last longer than Richie Sexson. But I think I know what you really mean. I’m not sure I agree with you, or what you think Bill James says, but I understand that many people hold that view.
So who’s assuming he’s going to be his .345/.520 self next year? That seems to be a pretty high projection, given what we’ve seen of him so far in his career. That’s right about at his career totals, and considering his age and his home park, you really can’t expect him to hit at that kind of level next year. Maybe more along the lines of about an .830 OPS, give or take +/- 30 points.
Use some goddamn component stats rather than just the slashes, show your mathematics and your assumptions, and then maybe we’d have some incentive to take your new and revolutionary method of player projection seriously.
Because right now it looks like you’re taking a look at OBP/SLG and then having a bit of a guess, and we prefer to do analysis that isn’t 10 years out of date in these parts.
Here, I’ll even help you: pitch data courtesy of baseball reference and ball in play numbers from fangraphs.
Graham, are you saying I have a new and revolutionary method of player projection that’s 10 years out of date?
You know what? Having a bit of a guess is about the best anyone can do, and you have perhaps seen that if you’ve looked at any of the projection systems (Marcels, Pecota, Zips) that are published over the last few seasons. They all have their hits and misses, so it’s anything but an exact science right now.
Sign Kuroda from Japan(this guy can pitch forever with that rubber arm); Trade Ibanez to Detroit for Nate Robertson; Trade Balentien to Pittsburgh for Jason Bay(bring him home)(they are looking for a deal and he is fairly cheap LF)) move Broussard to 1B; Move Horam to Bull Pen or trade him for a bullpen arm and hope Lopez will hit again and that our SS will not make 30 errors in 08. Whew!
130
and trade Sexson for Santana
I’m game for a new projection system where all I have to do is look up a players OPS. Here’s Sexson’s as a Mariner:
2005: .910;
2006: .842;
2007: .694;
I’m a novice at this new system, but I’m having trouble seeing how it suggests an OPS of .840 next season…
#131 – That with 10 Mil wouldn’t even work for the cheap Twins but we can dream. Send Sexson, Baek and Sean Green to SF for Lowery and their “old 2B”
Nathaniel, I am lost on your reasoning as well. Perhaps what we are all missing is what you consider to be good batting statics & numbers for a 1stbaseman and DH, what you think are reasonable numbers for Sexson in 2008. My thinking would be
AB 500
Hits 145
Extra basehits 70
Hr’s 30
Walks 90
Which all works out, if my math is correct…
BA 290
OBP 400
SLG 540
OPS 940
Nathaniel is mystifying people over at LL with his analysis of Vidro as well.
Jesus, they can’t really bring Sexson back, can they? That’s not even a remote possibility, is it?
“The Ghost”: They can and they will probably have to. They owe Sexon 14M in 08 and no team will take him in trade w/o giving you their bad contract or the Mariners will have to include Sexon’s salary almost completely.
dear god this post is scaring me.
bring on bedard!!!!!