Q&A Thread
Dave · November 26, 2007 at 9:03 am · Filed Under Mariners
We realize that the posting has been a little light here the last few weeks. Derek, Jason, and I have all been pretty busy with the non-baseball part of our lives, and it’s not like the Mariners have been making huge news either. I have a few posts that are in various stages of being finished, but since I don’t have the time to wrap any of them up today, I figured I’d throw up a question and answer thread, where you guys can fire off questions in the comments and we’ll do our best to answer them if we can.
Stay away from the usual topics that aren’t allowed, but other than that, this is probably the thread for you if you’ve had an off topic question that you’ve been wanting to ask. Fire away.
Comments
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Do you think trading for Jason Bay would have any benefit for the Mariners for 08?
Every acquisition requires a cost benefit analysis. Is there benefit to getting Jason Bay? Sure. Is there a cost involved? Absolutely. What is the cost? I have no idea. Is it worth it? Probably not.
Just sign Geoff Jenkins instead.
What one move could each AL West team make that would concern you the most as a Mariners fan?
Rangers – dump Michael Young on a sucker, continue rebuilding well.
Angels – acquire Miguel Cabrera.
Oakland – Give Billy Beane a lifetime contract.
Can Wladimir Balentien be the M’s regular left fielder in ‘08? Pros and cons?
Nope.
Pros – makes league minimum.
Cons – would suck.
Would Geoff Jenkins bat lose significant value between Miller Park and Safeco? It looks like Miller Park is about even and Safeco is obviously below average. About how much of a decrease would show up in his numbers?
Safeco effects LH and RH hitters far differently. It was built for guys like Jenkins with a short porch down the RF line. He’s exactly the kind of hitter the M’s should be looking for. He’s perfect for the park.
What’s harder-finding an effective DH or finding an effective closer?
Closer.
1. Is Clement fragile?
2. Do the M’s need to sign a FA pitcher, or could they get away with Felix/Washburn/scrubs for another year?
3. Is everyone just waiting for the Mitchell Report to come out before they start signing free agents in earnest?
He’s got a bad elbow and a bad back, but I’m not sure I’d call him fragile. Damaged, maybe.
They need to acquire another starter or two. Doesn’t have to be a free agent, but the in house candidates are inadequate.
That’s part of it, certainly.
Has Bavasi ever mentioned he is high on Jenkins or wants to pursue him?
Is there benefit to getting Jason Bay?
But what about Michael Bay?
But seriously, have you heard of any rumblings or rumours of moves the M’s might have in the works? I guess what I’m really interested in is if the things you might be hearing from the grapevine are cause for concern or rejoicing. I myself am a pessimist, but hopefully that attitude doesn’t bear out to be true in the M’s offseason…
Jimmie
P.S. Wow, Michael Bay and I are almost exactly the same age. He seems to make more money, though.
It seems like Jenkins is an obvious fit for the M’s (a left handed outfielder). Moving Ibanez to 1st allows for two power lefty bats in the line-up (ignoring Vidro’s weak switch hitting swing) who can take advantage of the Safeco dimensions.
Given Jenkins is a FA and is anything but a sure thing, are there any other ovious good fits out there that the M’s could pick up via trade or Free Agency? It seems the M’s REALLY need another lefty bat to help balance things out.
1. Who is dumb enough to take Richie Sexson off our hands?
2. Will it actually happen?
Here’s another from my list of OT questions (yes, I write them down waiting for these threads). Concerning pitchers, what are the impacts (in terms of runs/9) of league, park (i.e. moving from an extreme environment to a neutral one), and role (i.e. moving from the rotation to the pen and vice versa)? Maybe the park question is trickiest to generalize because some parks are generally neutral but homer prone (i.e. GABP) so it might effect fly ball pitchers to a different extent the ground ball pitchers?
Should the M’s consider putting Ichiro back in Right Field and putting Adam Jones in Center?
What metric should I use instead of WARP to evaluate a guy like Torii Hunter, in terms of marginal wins added?
Bavasi has reached out to fans in part by interacting with the USSM community at feeds. Did you guys extend the original invitation or did he come to you guys looking for free pizza? Also, what is his favorite toppings/crust choice?
Here’s another…
How exactly do stat guys use “regression to the mean” to project player performance (and how is player data actually regressed to the mean anyway).
BTW, have you upgraded to office 2007 and if so, how do you like the new tabbed environment?
Anyway, thanks for giving us an open topic thread.
How do you feel about Jose Lopez as the M’s 2nd baseman?
Does he have the type of skill set where you would be comfortable penciling him in at that position for at least the remainder of his contract?
How much stock do you put in the “he was dealing with some tough personal issues this year…” or do you think the ‘07 Lopez is pretty much what we have?
Has Bavasi ever mentioned he is high on Jenkins or wants to pursue him?
No.
But seriously, have you heard of any rumblings or rumours of moves the M’s might have in the works?
Besides the news about Kuroda that everyone else knows, not really. I have less sources within the organization now than I have in a few years. I’m fine with that, actually. Being the inside info guy isn’t always fun.
are there any other ovious good fits out there that the M’s could pick up via trade or Free Agency?
Left-handed bats? Not really.
1. Who is dumb enough to take Richie Sexson off our hands?
Depends how much salary we eat.
2. Will it actually happen?
I think so, yes.
Concerning pitchers, what are the impacts (in terms of runs/9) of league, park (i.e. moving from an extreme environment to a neutral one), and role (i.e. moving from the rotation to the pen and vice versa)?
There’s a talent difference between the NL and AL right now of about .3 runs that affects both pitchers and hitters.
In addition, the DH difference between the two leagues is worth about .5 runs.
Park differences vary wildly, but can suppress or increase run scoring by as much as 15-20% at the extremes. Take a 4.50 ERA pitcher, stick him in a 20% run supression environment, and you’ve got a 3.60 ERA. So a little less than a run per game for the most extreme parks.
Role – about .9 runs per game. A 4.50 reliever would probably be a 5.40 starter, or somewhere in there – but you have to remember that some pitchers are better suited to a particular role.
What metric should I use instead of WARP to evaluate a guy like Torii Hunter, in terms of marginal wins added?
Offensive Linear Weights Above Average + Defensive Value Assumption + Position Adjustment + Two Win Replacement Level Adjustment.
Did you guys extend the original invitation or did he come to you guys looking for free pizza?
I got ahold of him.
Also, what is his favorite toppings/crust choice?
Not sure, he never eats.
Say the M’s sign Kuroda for around 3/$25M and use Rowland-Smith or Baek or some other cheap option as the 5th starter. Terrible offseason?
How exactly do stat guys use “regression to the mean” to project player performance (and how is player data actually regressed to the mean anyway).
Calculate a baseline of similar players in a specific context (for instance, average LH flyball hitter at Safeco), then determine how much of the previous result that is being regressed is true talent level and how much is noise. Regress the difference of 1 minus the true talent level. If true talent level is 90% of the result, regress the result 10% towards the baseline. if the true talent level is 30% of the result, regress the result 70% toward the baseline.
BTW, have you upgraded to office 2007 and if so, how do you like the new tabbed environment?
Nope.
How do you feel about Jose Lopez as the M’s 2nd baseman?
He’s fine for now.
Say the M’s sign Kuroda for around 3/$25M and use Rowland-Smith or Baek or some other cheap option as the 5th starter. Terrible offseason?
Yes.
You’re hired as Mariners GM, but ownership tells you that Ibanez and Sexson cannot be dealt. Given that both those guys are stuck on the roster, what’s the first move you make and why?
I resign.
What are the best guess feelings regarding what will happen with Ben Broussard?
Should Mariners attempt to extend Beltre’s contract?
What do you think are the minimum performance benchmarks that would have to be achieved in order for Lincoln to re-hire Bavasi/McLaren for 2009, and how likely do you think that is to be achieved (as of right now, assuming similar results from recent offseason roster moves)?
Also: if the M’s did something crazy and put Ibanez at 1B, gave Clement the DH job, and put Balentien in LF – what would the offensive/defensive tradeoffs be (in your opinion, using whatever projections you prefer) as to the presence of Vidro/Sexson/Ibanez-LF in the lineup?
While taking into account that it’s really tough to project, especially this early in the off-season, I’m just curious what your opinion is on what, roughly, you think those two answers would be….
What are your future hopes for the USSMariner.com site?
What are your thoughts on the apparent Cordero signing by the Reds?
What are the best guess feelings regarding what will happen with Ben Broussard?
Traded for nothing of value.
Should Mariners attempt to extend Beltre’s contract?
Yep.
What do you think are the minimum performance benchmarks that would have to be achieved in order for Lincoln to re-hire Bavasi/McLaren for 2009, and how likely do you think that is to be achieved (as of right now, assuming similar results from recent offseason roster moves)?
85+ wins. Not likely.
Also: if the M’s did something crazy and put Ibanez at 1B, gave Clement the DH job, and put Balentien in LF – what would the offensive/defensive tradeoffs be (in your opinion, using whatever projections you prefer) as to the presence of Vidro/Sexson/Ibanez-LF in the lineup?
Worse offense, not significantly improved defense. That’s just a terrible idea.
What are your future hopes for the USSMariner.com site?
That it continues to be fun to write until I stop blogging.
What are your thoughts on the apparent Cordero signing by the Reds?
More proof that Wayne Krivsky is a bad GM.
Does the Jason Kendall contract effect your opinion of where the Brewers rank in the overall scheme of well-run organizations?
I am guessing that your reaction will not be positive, but the Mariners are not being mentioned much in the Santana trade hype, but they do seem to have a couple of the prerequisites. A talented, cheap young centerfielder (Jones) and the money to sign Santana. Santana, I think, would waive the no-trade for Seattle. I know it also depends on the rest of the package, buy would you e thumbs up or thumbs down on a package for Santana including Jones?
Is the FA system broken? The difficulty bordering on impossibility of building through the open market has been discussed at length here.
1. I’ve tried to explain to my friends about how people analyze baseball as a science, and they don’t really understand it. As someone who doesn’t know too much about what you do but likes to read it, I’ve thought about it myself, and I’ve tried to pin down the foundation of your type of analysis… is the general assumption or conceit of baseball as a science that every player tries as hard as they can on any given day? Because I imagine if a player isn’t trying that would introduce quite a significant spurious variable to the analysis. Furthermore, when looking at someone like J.D. Drew who has been tagged as a career underachiever by the media, do you take that into account? Do you really believe he isn’t trying, or is he just not very good to begin with?
2. If you had to handpick bench players for the 2008 Mariners, not including potential platoon players, who would you want? i.e. backup catcher, infield replacement, outfield replacement. Would you keep Willie Bloomquist?
Does the Jason Kendall contract effect your opinion of where the Brewers rank in the overall scheme of well-run organizations?
Not really – it’s a one year deal, so even though it was a bad idea, it’s minimally problematic. Every organization has blind spots. This one isn’t a crippling blow to the Brewers.
would you e thumbs up or thumbs down on a package for Santana including Jones?
Down.
Is the FA system broken? The difficulty bordering on impossibility of building through the open market has been discussed at length here.
The FA market is fine – owners just need to hire smarter people to run their franchises. Notice how the teams who know what they’re doing aren’t having any problems building winners without spending like idiots in free agency?
It seems to appear that the Mariners plan on keeping Raul in left, and put Jones in right, why? Wouldn’t an outfield of Jenkins, Ichiro, and Jones be a significant upgrade? Do you think the Angels are manuevering to acquire Cabrera? Does anyone have a feel for their payroll limit?
Any chance McLaren coaches for the entire year?
Yep, probably quite likely.
Dave, Have you seen this article at BP where Gary Huckabay talks with a NL and AL executive? One of the themes that I always thought and seems reinforced here in that many front offices are just swamped with work and face ticking deadlines and that this may be to blame for some of the heinous decisions made that we see.
Also, these personnel are paid very little relative to their market skills (because) and teams are overflowing with qualified people who want to work in these front offices.
So, my question is, in your opinion, why don’t teams have bigger front offices? If they have so much work that these people are literally living at the office and still cannot get to it all, why not hire more people? Wouldn’t the cost savings in making better player decisions absolutely dwarf that of the higher FO payroll?
he’s under contract until 2012, with a small portion of ownership, right? that’s pretty much ‘lifetime’ in baseball…
Who’s your best guess for ‘08 AL Rookie of the Year?
Does that depress you like it does me?
One of the themes that I always thought and seems reinforced here in that many front offices are just swamped with work and face ticking deadlines and that this may be to blame for some of the heinous decisions made that we see.
I’m not sure that’s entirely accurate. I don’t think there are too many front offices that are understaffed – I think there are too many front offices where the wrong people are making decisions.
Who’s your best guess for ‘08 AL Rookie of the Year?
Way too early to know that.
Dave-
In your eyes what is the main difference between a player like Geoff Jenkins and Brad Wilkerson? Looking from a statistical standpoint there numbers really weren’t all that different last year (granted I’m not sure how to use park factors yet). Is it defensive value? It would seem to me that Wilkerson would be an easier pickup on a one year contract than Jenkins who is clearly seeking a multiyear deal.
Can you link to a good explanation of offensive linear weights?
re 39
Isn’t that another way of asking “Why don’t teams work smarter?”
Seems to me that’s yet another example of being penny wise, pound foolish, in that they’re enamored of big names and known players, instead of spending where the biggest bang for the buck can come from….
Whats the projection on Kuroda, assuming we sign him.
Dave – Thanks for doing these as I really enjoy them.
Is “Baseball Prospectus” still on your annual reading list or have you banned it completely? What is your current list of must read annuals?
What are the specific problems with Jeff Clement’s defense?
What does Juan Ramirez throw?
Dave:
I know you’ve said repeatedly that a left-handed bat, improved defense and a couple of starters (not necessarily in that order) are the M’s biggest needs.
Given the state of the FA market, players available for trade, and the M’s front office, what are we most likely to see happen in the coming months? Anything to be optimistic about?
46. No, I think that’s a separate (equally valid) question, but I also think there’s no real illuminatory answer to it.
In your eyes what is the main difference between a player like Geoff Jenkins and Brad Wilkerson?
Jenkins is good defensively, doesn’t have the injury problems Wilkerson does, has a swing more suited for Safeco, and we’ll just say that there’s not a Mitchell Report cloud hanging over his head like there is with Wilkerson.
Can you link to a good explanation of offensive linear weights?
http://www.tangotiger.net/#Lwts
Whats the projection on Kuroda, assuming we sign him.
Miguel Batista with slightly better command.
Is “Baseball Prospectus” still on your annual reading list or have you banned it completely? What is your current list of must read annuals?
I haven’t bought a BP annual in several years. The THT Annual is the one to get, and not just because I wrote a column for it again. It’s awesome.
What are the specific problems with Jeff Clement’s defense?
Bad footwork, slow release.
What does Juan Ramirez throw?
Hard.
are you generally in favor of acquiring Kuroda at say the 3/25 that was mentioned earlier? What price would you pay for Kuroda, or would you rather the mariners pursue other options (i.e. trade).
The Marlins infield his well known for its good hitting and poor defense. While I know Cabrera’s issues, what are Hanley Ramirez’s problems defensively? What position would he be best suited for: 3b, 2b, cf? Same 2 questions go for Dan Uggla.
Thanks!
47: there’s a Kuroda projection at LL: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2007/11/22/45725/893
For a change from my usual negative thoughts, that would you consider Bavasi’s best transaction in his time with the Mariners?
The last Future Forty has an ETA for Wlad as 2008. Has that changed significantly in your view and if so why and what areas of his game need to take a step forward?
If you could go back in time and undo any one transaction that took place under the Bavasi regime, what would it be and why?
If Mariners do sign Bartolo Colon, would there be any way that they could put an ‘incentive’ in contract to lose weight? If he did lose weight, would it actually make him a better pitcher?
And one other question, if you had a choice to trade for any pitcher that is available on the trade market, who would you trade for and what would you give up?
If the M’s sign Kuroda, is there any chance they still go after Colon?
Also, you’ve talked about how a smart GM should be going after Matt Kemp because the Dodgers undervalue him. Would you say the same thing about Jose Lopez and the M’s? Do you know what the general feeling is about Lopez around the league?
Why is everyone against Livan Hernandez? To me a guy who can go 200+ innings with a average ERA would be fine.
If you could get him for 2 years 8 million a year would you?
1. How does Wlad rate as a trading chip?
2. If the team moves Richie, would they then rather move Raul to first or try to find a new first baseman via trade or free agency?
3. How do you feel about Jose Lopez?
Thanks!
If Sexson and Broussard both get dealt, I imagine Ibanez moves to first. But who’s on first if Ibanez gets hurt?
Richie Sexson. He’s going to be 33 next year, playing in a conract year. Any chance he bounces back and produces? What are your thoughts on riding out his contract versus paying someone else to play him? What do you think M’s will do?
Does Yung Chi Chen have any real MLB potential? Is he our next Asdrubal Cabrera that is blocked by Yuni and Lopez? Will he be given a real shot to challenge Lopez in ST?
Say Carlos Triunfel makes great strides in the next year or two and is on the M’s roster in 2009/2010. If we still have Yuni and Beltre, does he play 2B or OF. Does he start this year in AA?
Do you think that Beltre’s future is limited (meaning no extension) with the M’s because they have a local kid (Tuiasosopo) they rather see given a chance?
Dave, thanks for the thread…
How do/would you go about analyzing the strength of the M’s farm system vs. the rest of the league, or at least vs. the AL West?
#62: I would imagine that Vidro would be the guy at first if Ibanez went down, under your scenario.
#64, I’d sooner they give Beltre an extension if possible. His value is somewhat reduced by being RH in Safeco, although Boras may decide otherwise, but if you could extend his contract for 2-3 years, and he’s going for $12-$14 mil, then do it, you can always move Tuiasosopo or Triunfel (or Beltre) to another position when that time comes.
#63: Richie Sexson. He’s going to be 33 next year, playing in a conract year. Any chance he bounces back and produces? What are your thoughts on riding out his contract versus paying someone else to play him? What do you think M’s will do?
Basically, already addressed in Dave’s Offseason Plan, v.2007
are you generally in favor of acquiring Kuroda at say the 3/25 that was mentioned earlier?
Given the market rate for pitchers, it would be hard to be against that kind of deal. A good organization would see that contract as an opportunity to dump Washburn’s salary, essentially just swapping one for the other, but that’s not the M’s.
While I know Cabrera’s issues, what are Hanley Ramirez’s problems defensively?
Ramirez has a poor first step, which is crucial for an infielder. They should move him to CF, where his raw speed will make up for his lack of reactions. Uggla just doesn’t have the physical ability to play up the middle. He’s a 3B/1B type.
For a change from my usual negative thoughts, that would you consider Bavasi’s best transaction in his time with the Mariners?
Re-signing Ichiro.
The last Future Forty has an ETA for Wlad as 2008. Has that changed significantly in your view and if so why and what areas of his game need to take a step forward?
That’s time of arrival, not time of production. He could be in the majors next year – he just wouldn’t help a playoff team as a starting left fielder. He needs to continue to refine his approach, have better at-bats, get himself out less often, and improve his defense.
If you could go back in time and undo any one transaction that took place under the Bavasi regime, what would it be and why?
Soriano for Horacio Ramirez. Self explanatory.
If Mariners do sign Bartolo Colon, would there be any way that they could put an ‘incentive’ in contract to lose weight?
I’m sure that would be part of the deal, no matter where he signs.
And one other question, if you had a choice to trade for any pitcher that is available on the trade market, who would you trade for and what would you give up?
J.P. Howell. As little as possible.
If the M’s sign Kuroda, is there any chance they still go after Colon?
Probably not.
Also, you’ve talked about how a smart GM should be going after Matt Kemp because the Dodgers undervalue him. Would you say the same thing about Jose Lopez and the M’s? Do you know what the general feeling is about Lopez around the league?
I don’t think Kemp is actually undervalued around the league. He’s just undervalued by the Dodgers. He’s not a buy low candidate, as the bidding for him would be intense.
Lopez is seen as a talented underachiever.
Why is everyone against Livan Hernandez? To me a guy who can go 200+ innings with a average ERA would be fine.
He sucks, and he can’t.
1. How does Wlad rate as a trading chip?
Run of the mill. Has some value, but not tons.
2. If the team moves Richie, would they then rather move Raul to first or try to find a new first baseman via trade or free agency?
Depends on the other moves.
3. How do you feel about Jose Lopez?
The same way I feel about most people I’ve never met – ambivalent.
Does Yung Chi Chen have any real MLB potential?
Role player – think Brendan Harris. Doesn’t have the glove for second or the bat for third.
Say Carlos Triunfel makes great strides in the next year or two and is on the M’s roster in 2009/2010. If we still have Yuni and Beltre, does he play 2B or OF. Does he start this year in AA?
Triunfel probably can’t play second long term. He’s a 3B or an outfielder. And yes, probably Double-A.
Do you think that Beltre’s future is limited (meaning no extension) with the M’s because they have a local kid (Tuiasosopo) they rather see given a chance?
No – Tui has nothing to do with Beltre.
How do/would you go about analyzing the strength of the M’s farm system vs. the rest of the league, or at least vs. the AL West?
Above average relative to league, better than Oaklands, about the same as Angels, worse than Texas’.
I must say I haven’t heared a whole lot about Freddy Garcia this offseason but seeing as he is a free-agent, do you think he would be a good fit for the M’s? and if so, what are the chances of them re-aquireing him?
I know he would be a bit risky (with his recent injury problems etc.) but i really feel that, if healthy, he can still be an effective number two or three starter and somewhat of a mentor for Felix (since he was after-all the reason for Felix signing with the M’s to begin with). But this is just my opinion and I’m eager to hear what people have to say about it.
A lot of talk about wanting Jenkins, but wouldn’t Fukodome be a better defensive fit for RF, and provide better BA & doubles hitting with as much (or almost) the same HR stats as Jenkins?
Plus with a Kuroda signing (same agent by the way as Fukodome & Seattle based) would this make the Mariners the “favorite” Japanese team of MLB? Thus adding a ton to our Japanese incoming revenue?
Do you think Carlos Triunfel will/should make the Ms hesitant to extend Beltre?
I’ve read A)that Detroit claimed Sexson on waivers – or B)didn’t happen. What do you believe?
Would you have any interest in K-Lofton for LF?
Dave-
Joeseph Woerman was added to the 40-man roster…will he ever be a major league contributor with the Ms? and if so, when and where (bullpen or starting)?
From the GM meetings I heard several rumors that the Indians were interested in swaping Ibanez in exchange for Laffey, because of Ibanez $5.5M 2008 contract. If M’s landed either Jenkins or Fukodome, would you be in favor of doing the Laffey trade?
By the way Laffey was a STUD in the 2nd half in my fantasy league last year!
Is there anything you would like to see us do to help make USSMariner better?
Do you think Beane will rebuild this off-season and trade Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden and Huston Street.
Dave: What players,(names),will the M’s look to trade for or sign FA this off season and for whom?
Dave, I enjoyed your realistic scenario for the offseason, but you also mentioned you’d be doing more of a dream scenario. How far along is that post? Any timeline on when we should be looking for it? Thanks!
Do you think Carlos Triunfel will/should make the Ms hesitant to extend Beltre?
No. I love Triunfel, but having major league talent locked up to below market rates is never a bad thing.
I’ve read A)that Detroit claimed Sexson on waivers – or B)didn’t happen. What do you believe?
I know people who believe that he was claimed and people who believe that he wasn’t. I don’t know which side is right.
Would you have any interest in K-Lofton for LF?
Very mild.
Joeseph Woerman was added to the 40-man roster…will he ever be a major league contributor with the Ms? and if so, when and where (bullpen or starting)?
Probably not. He looks like a very fringey reliever, and not the kind of guy who is going to have any real value.
Is there anything you would like to see us do to help make USSMariner better?
Give Derek and I enough money to do this full time? Okay, that’s not realistic, obviously.
If someone wanted to go through the old posts and collect a bunch of links to the places where we’ve discussed all the questions that come up over and over again, that’d be awesome.
Do you think Beane will rebuild this off-season and trade Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden and Huston Street.
I think he’ll trade one or two of those.
Dave: What players,(names),will the M’s look to trade for or sign FA this off season and for whom?
I don’t know – my crystal ball is at the shop.
Dave, I enjoyed your realistic scenario for the offseason, but you also mentioned you’d be doing more of a dream scenario. How far along is that post? Any timeline on when we should be looking for it? Thanks!
This week, hopefully.
Quick series of questions related to FOs, a subject of which I know relatively little…
Do any major league teams employ guys like you and Derek to make major decisions in the front office? If no, why not? Would you have any desire to work in the M’s FO making the kinds of decisions you write about here?
Also, are any teams starting to hire guys like you to coach in the farm system? Not to overstate the obvious, but it sure seems like if the M’s were being run/coached based upon the philosophy espoused by USSM, we’d have won at least a few more games…
Dave: Budweiser or Millers?
No, but as a serious question, you said in a previous post that Tampa Bay has something like 7 pitchers and would, ideally, be the best place to trade for pitching. Of the 7 Tampa Bay pitchers, who are you interested in in order from least to greatest (keeping in mind what it would take to get them)?
86:
Dave’s a Miller guy….Andrew Miller.
I’ve heard varying rumors that Ian Snell might be available. Does he interest you? What would the M’s have to given up?
Good afternoon, given the scarcity of pitching, would someone like Josh Towers be a benefit to the Mariners taking him out of the Rogers Center and placing him in Safeco. Is that the type of pitcher the M’s are trying to seek out this offseason?
Thank-you.
Do any major league teams employ guys like you and Derek to make major decisions in the front office?
As far as I know, there aren’t any teams currently employing unqualified bloggers and placing them in the front office, no.
If no, why not?
Because there are smarter, more qualified kids coming out of Ivy League schools every year who will jump at the chance to work 100 hours a week for no money.
Would you have any desire to work in the M’s FO making the kinds of decisions you write about here?
To make the decisions I write about here, I’d have to be the owner of the team and appoint myself GM. I don’t have a billion dollars laying around, nor do I have the presumption to think that I could actually run a major league franchise.
Also, are any teams starting to hire guys like you to coach in the farm system?
No, and there shouldn’t be. I have nothing to offer as a minor league coach. I’m about as qualified to do that as I am to play first base for the M’s.
Not to overstate the obvious, but it sure seems like if the M’s were being run/coached based upon the philosophy espoused by USSM, we’d have won at least a few more games
Being in line with our philosophy and actually having Derek or I in charge of anything are two wildly different things.
Dave: Budweiser or Millers?
Neither.
No, but as a serious question, you said in a previous post that Tampa Bay has something like 7 pitchers and would, ideally, be the best place to trade for pitching. Of the 7 Tampa Bay pitchers, who are you interested in in order from least to greatest (keeping in mind what it would take to get them)?
Tampa has like 18 pitchers I would like to acquire, counting their farm system. But a huge majority of those guys aren’t going anywhere, so we’ll eliminate the likes of Kazmir, Shields, Niemann, and McGee right from the start.
J.P. Howell and Edwin Jackson both make some sense for the M’s. I prefer Howell to Jackson, but the margin isn’t huge, and its mostly based on my guess that Howell would cost less to acquire.
Dave, do you believe there is a chance the Mariners would attempt to trade for Johan Santana?
What type of degrees do FO’s look at the most when interviewing for positions? Also what other characteristics do they regard highly in possible future employees?
#88, I’m not implying you said or didn’t say anything, so don’t take this the wrong way. Snell is not undervalued by any means. He’d cost a ton if we wanted him.
Dave,
What do you think about putting Clement on the Major league roster and using him as the backup catcher/part-time DH?
Maybe start him more than your average backup catcher (say 2 starts a week vs RH pitchers)?…
If you could go back in time and undo any one transaction that took place under the Bavasi regime, what would it be and why?
Soriano for Horacio Ramirez. Self explanatory.
Which trade is worse — Ramirez/Soriano or Lowe+Tek/Slocumb?
How much do the M’s spend on the farm system compared to other teams? Is there a good measure of this? I am thinking of how Detroit spends obscene amounts on signing bonuses. Is spending that kind of money viable for some/most MLB teams? Also, what prevents teams from exceeding the slots? (Wrath of Bud?)
I agree Dave Tampa Bay is a club that has that rare luxury in their MiLB affilates:Pitching both starting and relief to trade and not hurt their future needs.
Quite frankly if you include low A ball Tampa Bay has closer to 21 pitchers I like to see in a M’s uniform either on the roster or at least down on farm developing.
I have been an advocate of trading with Tampa Bay for pitching while the 4 you mention are offlimits
to M’s more because the M’s don’t have the value the Rays would ask in return for them than the unwillingness of their FO to trade them.
I agree also the trade price for Howell will be lower than for Jackson who I believe their FO sees as a better fit should Kasmir or any of the 4 you mention are injuried.
Howell with his style of pitching will be a solid fit in Safeco and easily fill that #4 slot behind Kuroda if signed.
Which trade is worse — Ramirez/Soriano or Lowe+Tek/Slocumb?
What’s worse, being hit in the head with a sledge hammer, or being hit in the head with an axe?
Would you be willing to go after a guy like AJ Burnett? JP has openly stated his willingness to listen to offers this off season. Are salary and health enough of a deterrent to not try and bring someone in with #2 stuff?
What kind of season do you see A. Jones having next year in terms of avg., OPS, HRs, RBIs, etc.?
Dave, do you believe there is a chance the Mariners would attempt to trade for Johan Santana?
They’ll at least make a phone call.
What type of degrees do FO’s look at the most when interviewing for positions? Also what other characteristics do they regard highly in possible future employees?
Economics, Law, Business Management. It also really, really helps to know someone.
What do you think about putting Clement on the Major league roster and using him as the backup catcher/part-time DH?
Terrible idea.
Which trade is worse — Ramirez/Soriano or Lowe+Tek/Slocumb?
Lowe and Varitek for Slocumb, and it’s not really all that close. Just beyond the massive difference in career value after leaving the M’s (which Lowe + Varitek win in a landslide), the philosophy that went into the Soriano/Ramirez deal was far better than the one that went into the Slocumb deal.
The problem with the Soriano-Ramirez trade was just that the Mariners suck at evaluating pitching talent. The concept, swapping a reliever for a starter, was pretty sound. The concept of trading two of your better prospects for two months of a bad relief pitcher ranks far higher on the dumb scale.
What are the chances that a true, TOR pitcher changes uniforms this off season?
#100: … the philosophy that went into the Soriano/Ramirez deal was far better than the one that went into the Slocumb deal.
The problem with the Soriano-Ramirez trade was just that the Mariners suck at evaluating pitching talent. The concept, swapping a reliever for a starter, was pretty sound.
IIRC – the Mariners were also looking at skills that would also be more valuable with the Mariners. Specifically, a LH pitcher in Safeco has advantages. With Beltré and Betancourt, the Mariners also wanted a GB pitcher. So they figured a left-handed starter with GB tendencies should play well in Safeco.
The theory behind acquiring Ramirez was (and is) sound. As Dave noted, the execution was horrible. But it was not an unthinking blunder.
Here’s a question that may take a little more effort to answer…
I read your old post about evaluating prospects at strikethree.com: http://www.strikethree.com/01/07/14/dac.shtml
Anything you would change in that?
What is the FOs general opinion of Lopez, and how actively (if at all) will they look to replace him? Also, do you really think the Orioles are shopping Bedard? Would any offer we put together have to include Jones?
23 Nice to know that the “difference in talent” assumption I made around this time last year after the HoRam debacle is now a general cavaet.
72 IIRC I remembering reading somewhere that The Bill James Handbook had the M’s system ranked 25th in terms of overall talent. I personally think that’s a bit conservative myself, however Texas has got the M’s beat by a mile. Sickels has a nice top 20 for Rangers here.
My question, tho, what would be your top 5 minor league pitchers in the M’s system. Also, what kind of ceiling do you envision for Future Forty snub Fabian Williamson?
First off, this thread is a nice read. I don’t follow your team that much but like to read your blog as you have some very knowledgeable writers.
My question is, using the method you described … “Offensive Linear Weights Above Average + Defensive Value Assumption + Position Adjustment + Two Win Replacement Level Adjustment.”
to analyze players could you run through a quick example with a player (or two for comparison sake) given the method you described? Thanks. vr, Xei
This thread is awesome. Thanks, Dave.
What do you see in Chris Tillman? Was he a steal in the second round? How many years away from the bigs is he? And ow does he compare to Tony Butler as far as who’s more likely to succeed in the majors?
Would you be willing to go after a guy like AJ Burnett?
Burnett’s situation is odd because of the opt out. If he has a good year, he leaves, but if he gets hurt or struggles, your stuck with his contract. High risk, medium reward. If the Blue Jays weren’t demanding significant talent in return, I’d be interested, but they are, so I’m not.
What are the chances that a true, TOR pitcher changes uniforms this off season?
Can I just say that I hate the terms TOR and MOTO?
What is the FOs general opinion of Lopez, and how actively (if at all) will they look to replace him? Also, do you really think the Orioles are shopping Bedard? Would any offer we put together have to include Jones?
The FO is frustrated with Lopez. Yes, I think the Orioles are really shopping Bedard, but only because they’re trying to get a king’s ransom for him. Yes, any offer from the M’s would require Adam Jones.
My question, tho, what would be your top 5 minor league pitchers in the M’s system. Also, what kind of ceiling do you envision for Future Forty snub Fabian Williamson?
Tillman, Butler, Aumont, Ramirez, giant gap, Feierabend. The order of the first four guys is pretty arbitrary, though – they’re all good arms.
could you run through a quick example with a player (or two for comparison sake) given the method you described?
Using Ichiro’s 2007 as the example.
Offensive Linear Weights: +22 runs (BtRuns on B-R)
Defensive Value: +5 runs (personal estimate)
Position Adjustment: +10 runs
Replacement Level Adjustment: +20 runs
That puts Ichiro at 57 runs above a replacement level player last year, or, if you prefer, 37 runs above an average player. If you want to quibble with BtRuns or my defensive evaluation, that’s fine, you can make some adjustments, but I’m comfortable that this is in the ballpark of his value.
What do you see in Chris Tillman?
A kid with a good arm who is still more hope than reality right now.
Was he a steal in the second round?
Potentially, but that’s kind of the nature of the beast with high risk, high reward draft picks. When they pan out, they look like a great move, but they flame out a lot. He’s nowhere near being past the potential flame out stage.
How many years away from the bigs is he?
Each organization is different. Probably two, but with the M’s, you never know. I doubt he’s a good major league starter for 4+ years.
And ow does he compare to Tony Butler as far as who’s more likely to succeed in the majors?
I like Butler’s overall package a little better, but the health problems are a concern. Tillman’s a step ahead in development, but on upside, I prefer Butler.
Dave, is there any new news on Aumont? Has your opinion changed at all since draft day?
Dave, is there any new news on Aumont? Has your opinion changed at all since draft day?
He’s still Canadian. No.
What about Mangini? What do you think of him?
Is it possible that once GMs like Bavasi and Gillick run out of players they remember from their old teams that they start to look for new pick-ups that could actually help them?
Hi. If Bavasi loses his job at the end of this season, what do you believe the chances Antonetti replaces him are? Specifically, how likely is it the Mariners will hire him and how likely is it he will accept the job?
Thank you for the thread.
Is Jeremy Reed now a career AAA guy? Is he worth nothing in trade value? What’s the plan with him?
#113– Cleveland Plain Dealer, Nov 1st:
“Antonetti, who just finished his sixth season as Indians assistant general manager, had his contract restructured by President Paul Dolan. He’d signed a four-year extension on May 15, but it’s believed Antonetti’s deal was sweetened with a raise and more years.”
Who are the Mariners trade partners most likely to be this winter? When will your crystal ball be fixed?
How off-topic would it be to ask “What happened to Jeff Shaw?”
I miss you guys.
Is there any chance the Mariners adjust the fences to accommodate the talent they have on hand?
Edwin Jackson? Doesn’t he walk a lot of people? Like 4.92/9?
With the media and GMs catching on to the fact that more value can come from talented youth than overpaid veterans, you can see teams making moves with regard to potential draft picks this next season (foreign players, type a vs type b, etc.). My question, with all this emphasis, are we going to see a deep draft class in 2008 in terms of talent?
I mean, it is relative to the available talent, I suspect, whether there are truly talented kids available or just what is possible to get.
Finally, do you think this is a trend we will see for a while? Or will baseball forget it after some inevitable burn outs in big boras bonus babies.
Is there any chance the Mariners adjust the fences to accommodate the talent they have on hand?
Or at least try to build a team that fits their fences?
Do one or the other, team….
we miss you, too, Deanna.
At the end of the bench, how about Podsednik and Marcus Giles instead of WB and Vidro?
Any value to the M’s in these guys? Both still released?
What is the trade value of George Sherrill?
I would not trade George Sherrill. I don’t know if it is just me, but it seems most of the bullpen was solid up until late in the season when the starters weren’t putting in enough innings, thus making the bullpen tired out. Also having relievers like Rick White, Parrish, or Reitsma who couldn’t record outs, (but of course brought a veteran presence to the clubhouse) would also tire out relievers too. Hopefully they will be good for next year, the team will need it.
But then again, this is Dave’s Q&A, not mine, but I am just putting in my 2 cents.
Dave, I’d be interested to read your one-sentence evaluations on the well-hyped prospects around baseball…Bruce, Upton, Longoria, Maybin, and those types. I’d also take top ten lists for pitchers and hitters, but I’m guessing you aren’t in to lists.
Number one question is, what would qualify as a succesful offseason, players move wise.
And if one wants to be a writer what does he or she need to do to get better and get a job?
Would you trade Jose Lopez?
If you had to predict where Kuroda will go where would he be?
No questions that haven’t been asked already, but this thread was a good read. Thanks for doing this.
Should the M’s go after Tony Armas Jr.?
I can’t remember, did we get that pool going on when the Griffey question would get asked by someone?
Dave, why do I still read the M’s mailbag while drinking liquids? This is the fourth keyboard I’ve ruined.
What about Mangini? What do you think of him?
Probably tops out as a solid role player.
Hi. If Bavasi loses his job at the end of this season, what do you believe the chances Antonetti replaces him are? Specifically, how likely is it the Mariners will hire him and how likely is it he will accept the job?
60% that Bavasi loses his job. 10% that Antonetti replaces him.
Is Jeremy Reed now a career AAA guy? Is he worth nothing in trade value? What’s the plan with him?
Yep, yep, and there isn’t one.
How off-topic would it be to ask “What happened to Jeff Shaw?”
I believe he blew out his arm pitching for the Dodgers in 2001, then retired.
Oh, you didn’t mean that one? Sorry.
I miss you guys.
Ditto.
Is there any chance the Mariners adjust the fences to accommodate the talent they have on hand?
Some chance, but probably not likely.
At the end of the bench, how about Podsednik and Marcus Giles instead of WB and Vidro?
No thanks.
What is the trade value of George Sherrill?
Moderate. I’d say it’s a decent bet he gets dealt this winter, too.
Bruce, Upton, Longoria, Maybin
All great prospects, though I think Maybin’s a tad bit overhyped.
Number one question is, what would qualify as a succesful offseason, players move wise.
Team improves roster while not mortgaging the future.
And if one wants to be a writer what does he or she need to do to get better and get a job?
Find a subject that you enjoy writing about that hasn’t been covered to death by others, then write about it a lot.
Would you trade Jose Lopez?
Depends on what I got back. For Erik Bedard? Of course. For Erik Hanson? No.
If you had to predict where Kuroda will go where would he be?
Probably here.
Should the M’s go after Tony Armas Jr.?
No – he’s terrible.
What about Mark Prior as a trade target? Terrific skills (e.g., K/9 over 10), has had a full year to recover from injury, might not cost unbelievable amount in players or salary, good probability of comeback … ?
Here was a great little blurb on espn Page 2 this morning:
“So, the Yankees and Twins are in preliminary talks about a Johan Santana trade. According to Page 2 sources, here are some other preliminary talks going on around the majors:
• Mariners: In preliminary talks of trading J.J. Putz to Atlanta for some crappy starting pitcher.”
What are your thoughts Dave? Totally out of the question?
As this wonderful thread winds down, I can’t resist feeding the fire with my personal nightmare: The FO trading Sexson (and a few $$$) for Griffey. Just seems like the kind of move our BB (not to be confused with *their* BB, Billy Beane) would make.
So my question is, what medication will allow me a decent night’s sleep?
136 – Sounds like something the FO would do. If so, Atlanta would be raiding our pen.
137 – Bingo – Griffey question! Not sure why the Reds would want Sexson.
Actually the Reds need righties in their lineup and Sexson would benefit from GABP and NL pitching. I could see a platoon of Sexson/Votto or Sexson/Hatteberg being useful and maybe even potent. Sexson is only a one year commitment at this point and acquiring him is probably only going to take a willingness to spend a little money.
hey! Geoff Baker is back!
136: If there’s any truth to that, it sounds like BB is trying to drive more fans away before the season even begins.
141: I think the quote in 136 is intended as a joke (though I don’t blame any M’s fans for failing to see the humor in it).
msb – Thanks for trolling the rest of the Net to see what’s worth reading and giving us links, so I don’t have to read all the depressing dreck.
When Jon Heyman writes:
The Mets, Dodgers, Angels and Mariners are seen as other potential big players for [Johan] Santana
does it make you sad for the Mariners, yourself, or Jon Heyman the most?
How much is Armstrong and/or Lincoln to be blamed for the team’s poor management? Are they pretty hands off?
From an ownership’s commitment to winning perspective, are we in better or worse shape than under the Argyros or Smulyan regimes? (I know that goes way back, but I’m curious nonetheless)
Are they likely to replace Bavasi with yet another old school thinker, or should we cross our fingers for a chance at Depodesta type, who is qualified and available?
we miss you, too, Deanna.
Yeah, between the loss of Batgirl and Deanna’s Japanese league updates, the whole season felt a little smaller and less interesting.
OK, for Dave: the Angels are reportedly interested in both Santana and Cabrera (and who wouldn’t be?) Let’s assume for the moment that it’s going to take a similar package to get either one — some 4 man combination of Kendrick, Willits, Ervin Santana, Saunders, Adenhart and maybe Jeff Mathis or Brandon Wood. Would the Angels be better off getting the pitcher or the 3B (who is probably headed for 1B as fast as his waistline will take him)? Would either one really be worth a haul like that? (Assuming they can get Santana signed to some kind of extension so he’s not a 1-year rent-a-player).
say the M’s went after Santana, would it necessarily take a package of for example: Jones, Clement and Morrow to acquire him or do you think the Twins might accept a few more players, albeit players with a little less talent such as a combiniation of Rob Johnson, Balentein, Tillman, Tuiasosopo, Feierabend and Triunfel (with perhaps one of the previously mentioned ”top prospects” added to the mix)?
…and Deanna’s Japanese league updates…
Wait, what? That’s all she talks about nowadays…
#148: say the M’s went after Santana, would it necessarily take a package of for example: Jones, Clement and Morrow to acquire him or do you think the Twins might accept a few more players, albeit players with a little less talent such as a combiniation of Rob Johnson, Balentein, Tillman, Tuiasosopo, Feierabend and Triunfel (with perhaps one of the previously mentioned ”top prospects” added to the mix)?
With the caveat that you never know what one individual GM will do ….
You need to consider that the supply of players at a given talent level increases dramatically as the talent level is lowered. Thus, most smart organizations will substitute quantity for quality only when they are trying to patch several holes simultaneously or they are doing a total rebuild.
It’s relatively easy for teams to get talent/prospects at the lower levels you list; they don’t need to trade prime talent to obtain it, particularly when there are GMs who are willing to trade players such as Asdrubal Cabrera and Rafael Soriano for run-of-the-mill veterans. What teams can’t easily obtain is prime talent. Thus, when a team is dealing a player such as Santana they will almost always insist on some prime talent in return – then they might add some lesser talents to enhance the return. But those lesser level prospects are the whipped cream on the pumpkin pie, and are seldom a substitute for the pie itself.
well, you CAN go to Deanna’s blog to read about Japan
or should we cross our fingers for a chance at Depodesta type, who is qualified and available?
DePodesta lacks social skills. That makes him an excellent assistant GM, but if you put him in charge he just rubs everyone the wrong way and soon all of his scouts, coaches, and the local media hate him.
I would like to see the M’s go after a pitcher with some upside like Mark Prior – Cubs are reportedly shopping him around.
The risk isn’t worth giving up any top of the line prospects though. Some team might be willing to take the dive and do it. Should the M’s shoot the moon for Prior, or should they pass this one up?
Speaking of, if the Angels traded for Johan Santana AND Miguel Cabrera, we can be pretty sure that they will dominate the division for one year but having sold the farm will quickly fade from the top or go broke. That would make it more in the M’s interest to “rebuild” some more and ship off valuable veterans as well as the worthless ones.
Also, since he’ll miss the first 25 games on suspension, Mike Cameron might be a bargain that would improve the outfield defense immensely….
Dave:
How do you feel about Rock Raines as a Hall Of Famer?
Dave:
How do you size up Kenny Williams? Can the same GM who made a smart move in getting Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland really have signed Scott Linebrink for four years and $19 million? (Is that a worse or better move than the Orioles last year getting Jamie Walker for three eyars and $11 million?)
Wait, what? That’s all she talks about nowadays…
well, you CAN go to Deanna’s blog to read about Japan
Yeah, I meant here at USSM. It was always a reminder that there was more going on than the sinking M’s in the MLB sea. Sort of a little dash of wasabi in our steady diet of ichi-rolls and garlic fries.
Speaking of which (sort of), what does it say that the M’s biggest competition for talent so far this offseason is the Kansas City Royals? I feel like the tweener stuck at the kids’ table at Thanksgiving, tiny chair leaving my knees hunched up to my chest, plate full of nothing but bland mashed potatoes, looking enviously at all the delicious, meaty platters being passed around by the adults at the big table.
Hey Dave or anyone else,
I was reading an article yesterday about partial and full shares from world series money for the red sox and the rockies, and well as other teams. What do they mean by that? Is that each player gets a full share of money for playing or what?
Dave,
Do you think any GM’s read your website and reconsider the value they once assigned a player, that you considered under or overvalued?
It looks as though we have 3 catchers (Johjima,Johnson, Clement) near the major league level. 1-2 of these will never have a regular job with the Mariners. It seems like a few other clubs (mets, etc.)could use a catcher. Can’t we get something for these guys?
Here is a fairly decent breakdown of the post-season shares awarded this year (hey, even the M’s got $9,112 per). Essentially each team that is eligible for post-season money votes on how to divide it up (I believe the 25 man roster are the voters, but I could be wrong). They can vote a full or partial share, or just a flat cash payout, to anybody they want (though ultimately the GM has to sign off on it). Players get full or partial shares (that September call-up that was left off the post-season roster probably isn’t going to get a full share, for example); other random people get “tips” — the clubhouse attendants, the guy who washes the players’ cars, the guy who signed for those packages addressed to Guillen at the Oakland Coliseum, whatever.
The Rockies voted a full share for Mike Coolbaugh’s widow, which was a damn fine thing to do.
In other news, MLB doesn’t own player stats, despite their claims to the contrary. This is the only sane outcome, but since law and sanity don’t always agree (particularly in the realm of intellectual property) this is still good news to all of us who (at least indirectly) live and breathe baseball statistics.
Dave…
Would someone like Mark Prior be interesting to you? How about to Bavasi?
I like the Prior idea, high risk high reward move. Do you think a reliever like Sherrill plus a mid level prospect would be enough. I think if you add a Colon or Kuroda and back that with a Prior trade that our pitching staff would be set and with any injuries you have RRS, Morrow and Baek in the waiting. Pick up Jenkins and I call that a successful off season. In your opionion would that be a success Dave?
Also Dave, if Sherrill is traded do you think Jimenez has a chance to break with the big club. He has gone 14 scoreless in the Winter league with strong K rates.
don’t forget the D-backs…
From a CBS Sportsline article…
“GM Pat Gillick’s comments heading into the playoffs last month were telling. During a radio interview before the Philadelphia-Colorado first-round series, Gillick, speaking of the Phillies’ stirring comeback against the New York Mets in the NL East, noted that this was the first time in all of his years in baseball that he was convinced that chemistry, and not simply sheer talent, is important. This from the architect of the 1992 and 1993 Toronto world championship clubs. Rowand’s grittiness is what convinced Gillick. There are those in Philadelphia who view Rowand as the glue who held the ‘07 Phillies together.”
Are we sure Pat Gillick isn’t a sarcastic USS Mariner poster??
Are we sure Pat Gillick isn’t a sarcastic USS Mariner poster??
No, he clearly hates us, and wants to give ammunition to our enemies.
(Note: he clearly doesn’t actually believe what he’s claiming. Consider what he’s really saying: the 2007 Phillie team, which he said has great chemistry, didn’t win a WS. Those ‘92 and ‘93 Toronto teams, which apparently didn’t have great chemistry, did win rings. So is “chemistry” necessary for a team to win a WS? Or does it merely help a middling team overachieve enough to reach the first round of the playoffs? Or maybe it’s completely irrelevant: perhaps if the Mets hadn’t had a collapse of epic proportions the Phillies would be just another 2nd place team, like the M’s, and the whole question of chemistry wouldn’t even have come up?)
What’s your favorite beer?
If you could trade 1 player straight up for a player at the same position on another team (i.e. , who would be traded for who?
Dave doesn’t drink.
Derek on the other hand …
the Angels are introducing Garland and Torii, live on mlb.com, wearing their nasty red hats.
You don’t seem to be answering questions on this thread anymore, but here goes anyway:
What’s up with Stephen Kahn? He was on the Future Forty a couple of years ago, but then went down with an injury that caused him to miss all of 2007. He’s back and pitching in the Winter League, so is there a chance he might return to prospect status? He’s shown great K/9 rates at some levels, but are his control problems insurmountable?
134- I disagree on becoming a professional writer. Find a job writing about things nobody wants to write about (tech journals, trade pubs.). Take that job. Learn to write. Have your editor hand you back pieces that were cut to shreds. Continue to follow your individual interests and write about them on the side.
Now, with professional writing experience and a demonstrable expertise in your preferred field, go back to the bottom of the ladder writing about that thing. Work your way up.
You will not get rich doing any of this.
Thoughts on the Rays and Twinks trade that is reportedly going down? Still as high on the Rays front office as once before?
It appears Cinn,(pitching starved), is looking to trade Josh Hamilton. Sherrill and a AA/AAA pitching prospect might do it. Hamilton can play all outfield positions and is young,cheap and has a huge upside. ???
173 — I was about to ask that same question!
It seems like Young is involved in a lot of the Tampa Bay trade rumors. What doesn’t Tampa Bay like about him?
It seems like Young is involved in a lot of the Tampa Bay trade rumors. What doesn’t Tampa Bay like about him?
For one, he was an out machine this year. Really pretty poor for a corner outfielder. It was, of course, his rookie year, but he lost a little of his luster. Rather than a superstar, he now looks like he will be an above average player.
Secondly, he has a long history of behavioral problems (remember the minor league bat flip?). The Rays are probably overly concerned about this due to their experience with Elijah Dukes.
I like Garza, so I don’t think it would be a horrible trade for the D-Rays. In fact, they may get the better end of the deal.
What is your opinion on trading for Coco Crisp?
The BoSox have moved on to the younger, cheaper (better?… we’ll see in ‘08) Ellsbury in CF, thus making Coco available for trade.
He is locked up for the next few years for a reasonable price. (2/$10.5M + 3rd year $8M club option)
Crisp, Jones and Ichiro would make make for a STELLAR OF and would rival the Winn, Cammy, Ichiro OF of the past.
But will he be too weak offensively to play a corner OF position? Cost too much?
Thoughts?
His personality probably. Remember, he was the guy that threw a bat at an umpire. He’s not exactly nice.
If the Twins and Rays make that trade, then they’ll be shopping pitchers. JP Howell anyone?
I’ve been toying with his numbers, and love his peripherals. He misses bats, even at the MLB level, he walks people too much, but that’s improving and should be expected to improve, and he should keep the ball on the ground at an average or possibly slightly above average rate. Dave’s right, Howell and Colon would be a huge offseason IMO. Felix, Colon, Howell, Batista, and Washburn would be a good rotation.
Ok, it looks like the Dodgers are chasing Kuroda too. This is going to get expensive.
“Salt on the roada
makes my car Kuroda…”
There’s no loss of draft pick for signing Kuroda. All of the “known” American entities are lacking in this market.
#136 AndyP’s quote from ESPN Page 2: “…According to Page 2 sources, here are some other preliminary talks going on around the majors: Mariners: In preliminary talks of trading J.J. Putz to Atlanta for some crappy starting pitcher.”
It’d be just our luck that the Mariners would trade Putz to Atlanta for Mike Hampton…didn’t someone ask “Is it possible that once GMs like Bavasi and Gillick run out of players they remember from their old teams…[followed by Mariner fan fantasy]“?
(who, if you haven’t read the latest on ESPN/MLB.com, has recovered from his 2 elbow surgeries that have kept him from pitching since 2005, but after pitching in the AFL and doing pretty well, he just blew out his hamstring in the Mexican League and is on the shelf until February)
180: Tee-hee!
Actually, I think “Kuroda” was also the name of a Toyota model from the late ’60’s…
Dave, how do you assess the Twins/Rays trade?
I’ll take a crack at this…
Dave, Jason Churchill mentioned the Mariners might have interest in Brad Hawpe. For his career he hits almost as well away from Coors (.855 OPS) as he does at Coors (.873 OPS)…I know those are basic stats, but do you think Hawpe would be a good fit for the Mariners? And what do you think it would cost to acquire him?
Thanks Dave.