Kuroda to Dodgers
Alternate headline: “M’s lose out on Kuroda, plan franchise suicide.”
Hiroki Kuroda is signing with the Dodgers for three years and a reported $36 million, taking less money from L.A. than the M’s offered. I think they probably dodged a bullet here, personally – $12+ million per year for Kuroda just has no upside and a whole lot of downside.
However, since the M’s are intent on bringing in two veteran starters this winter and now have to go to Plan B, we’re going to here talk about two things – trading for Erik Bedard and signing one of the remaining mediocrities to a stupid contract. Just say no to Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, and pitchers of that ilk – the M’s simply don’t need any more overpaid pitch to contact veteran starters, despite the stupid cries about the requirements of upgrading the rotation.
I didn’t want Kuroda, but honestly, I have no faith in this organization to have any kind of real backup plan that isn’t simply panic based. I fully expect the rest of the offseason to be a total disaster. It doesn’t have to be, of course; Bartolo Colon’s still sitting out there, and they could actually work on improving the rest of their roster as well, but unfortunately, we don’t root for an organization that wise.
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Too bad it’s so damn “disruptive” to change general managers.
I don’t see either why they “need” to sign two big free agent contracts when you have Morrow and R. R. Smith competing for #5. Just sign Mark Prior or Bartolo Colon to a low risk deal and let that guy, Morrow, R-R Smith, Dickey, and HoRam compete for spots 4-5.
Which is worse, though: spending a lot of money on a bad pitcher, or spending a lot of money and trading away the farm? Even for Bedard? (And his sub-180 IP)? Perhaps keeping the prospects in Tacoma and just wasting money on a mediocrity is the best of the remaining possible outcomes — it’s kind of like the A’s rebuilding year, except you’re rebuilding with the pieces you already have instead of trading to get them. I mean, if Beane is smart for trading away a good pitcher to get prospects in a year they can’t hope to contend, isn’t it just as smart to not trade away prospects to get a good pitcher in a year you can’t hope to contend?
So here’s the “glass half full” version: the M’s hang onto Jones&Co, and throw stupid money at Lohse/Silva/whatever, who promptly turns into Jeff Weaver II. The team has another year like ‘07, maybe worse (if they don’t outrun their Pythag again) and Bavasi loses his job. They hire some new guy, maybe we get lucky and it’s somebody good, and he doesn’t arrive to find the cupboard bare. The alternative is that they trade, say, Jones+Morrow+Clement to get Bedard (or worse, they miss out on Bedard and trade all those guys to get somebody less) the team still tanks, Bavasi still gets fired, and the new GM arrives to find an empty farm (even worse, the best potential new GMs look at the situation and say no thanks, so the team doesn’t even acquire top shelf talent at that position and the downward spiral continues).
Sorry to be so gloomy. Just looking out the window at the black sheets of rain….
How the heck did they lose out to the Dodgers AGAIN??? This time last year we were supposed to get Schmidt and we lost him to the Dodgers (which didn’t turn out so bad last year) and now Kuroda? What is up with that?
Where’s the honor we keep hearing about these Japanese players have to play for Japan’s MLB team Seattle Mariners? What’s the point of having a Japanese owner if we can’t get first dibbs on ANY talent coming out of Japan?
Dodgers have a chance of reaching the postseason.
We don’t.
The Dodgers also play in SoCal and the NL West. Don’t think that pitchers wouldn’t rather play in those environs than in the AL and the Pacific Northwest.
I am not upset that Kuroda went to the Dodgers. However, I share Dave’s trepidation that they have no backup plan. This will result in the team getting fleeced in a trade and/or overpaying for garbage, which is how they ended up with HoRam and Weaver.
This is shaping up to be a scarry off season. The M’s have lost out on yet another pitcher and will now be in full panic mode. Isn’t that what led to trading Soriano for HoRam last year?
Now Bavasi and Co. will probably throw away all or most of our prospects to get a HUGE injury risk in Bedard. Don’t get me wrong, I love Bedard’s upside, when healthy he is a true #1. When is the last time we had that? However, we aren’t one stud pitcher away. If we were Erik Bedard away from being a WS contender, then make the trade to get him, but we aren’t, so don’t sell the farm to win 85 games and watch the playoffs from 10 games out.
Well it seems like Bavasi isn’t very good at attracting free agent pitchers. Granted, if Jason Schmidt did sign with the Mariners and he went on the DL all year with the Mariners, we would just be saying bad of a GM Bavasi is for signing an injured pitcher.
I am guessing we will get a Weaver Ver. 2.0 with either Lohse or Silva, and what’s worse is that they might actually get a multi year contract.
What I am not understanding though, is that it seems like not only USSMariner, but just about any sports website say that Lohse and Silva are no good, and will likely to be overpaid, shouldn’t a GM also know that they aren’t that good and not overpay them? I mean how much better would either one be that a replacement level pitcher? (Morrow, RRS, HoRam, etc.)
kennyb
I agree with a lot of what you have to say. I think that the offseason is going to turn out bad, we just have to see how bad. Bavasi has walked himself into a corner here. We NEED pitching, everybody knows that. It sure sounded like the M’s were banking on this Kuroda to bolster the staff, and now he’s a Dodger. Now, the only way to get any pitching that is going to help is to trade away Jones, Morrow, and possibly Clement as well. I wouldn’t have to big of a problem with this type of a trade if you could go out and get a #1 that you could sign to an extension. But now, if you trade Jones, what are you going to do in Right Field? Before the trade went down with Broussard I figured that at the absolute worst that we could have platooned Broussard and Bloomquist in right until Ballentine was ready, but now we can’t even do that. I’ve been a loyal M’s fan for the last 21 years and I will always continue to be, but it is very hard to sit and watch the teams go through offseasons like this. Let’s hope that Bavasi can pull a rabbit out of the hat from here on out, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.
I’m having a crisis of fan-dom. It’s hard for me to root for a team that’s just outright stupid. How do the rest of you manage it? Seriously, this is harder than back in the George Argyros years. The team was *supposed* to suck back then. Now? We got a huge payroll and somehow management thinks they deserve congratulations for finishing over .500. How am I supposed to care about this team? Should I just be way into the logo, or…?
And another thing: bring back the Kingdome. It ruled.
Hey, before complaining about the Ms, try being a Bengals fan…. At least the Ms HAVE a GM…..
I say the Mariners should go back to the future, both Freddy Garcia and Aaron Sele are available.
As the M’s need to catch lightning in a bottle to pass the Angels, Mark Prior and Colon would be the right thing to do. But I look forward to them signing Mark Redman and Russ Ortiz.
If the Ms plan on bringing in 2 starting pitchers this winter, why did they tender HoRam? Are they going to stick him in the pen or something?
3 & 7: Exactly — and if I was gonna roll the dice on a guy who was a known injury risk, I’d just as soon it be Mark Prior since he wouldn’t cost near as much to pick up as Bedard would.
BTW, Joser, that was an awesome Bob Mould album (Black Sheets Of Rain).
But will Prior even be ready by ST? Or even the All-Star Break?
ST: not even close
ASB: maybe.
I would not mind seeing the Mariners take a look at Kris Benson. His potential reward might not be as high as Colon’s, but he may be easier to sign to a one year contract.
As dumb as our management is, has been, and will be, the mistakes they made last year were still minor and relatively short term. If they follow the pattern they will take the patchwork approach and sign one-year pitcher (read: Colon) and trade for a prospect like HoRam (read: anyone not named Erik or Johan). If this happens we’ll dodge a huge bullet and life will keep on truckin until the end of ‘08 when we’ll be hunting for Bavasi’s replacement. So far so good. Zero moves of consequence = OK.
#8 — I don’t think that it is Bavasi that is driving off free agent pitchers. Some have chosen to take slightly less or equal money and play in the NL West.
#17 — I would not take a look at Kris Benson with anything other than an NRI. Guaranteeing him money would be about as bad as tendering a contract to HoRam. Oh, wait. . .
#18 — the Soriano for HoRam trade was not minor and the M’s are still feeling its effects. By trading Soriano for garbage, they felt forced to use Morrow immediately in the pen. This delayed his development, which now necessitates them trying to find two starting pitchers rather than one. (They know that they cannot count on Morrow to be ready to fill a spot in the rotation in April.) Finding two pitchers means that they will either make a bade trade or trades, sign a bad pitcher to an expensive long term contract, or a combination of the two aforementioned possibilities. I still seethe with anger every time I think about that trade and Armstrong’s awful explanation of why it was made.
O’s fan here. I amy fully aware that this is mostly wishful thinking on my part, but I would love to see Adam Jones come to Baltimore. I disagree with at least one comment I read that the M’s have no shot at contending. I do think that Bedard will seriously bolster the Mariner’s chances. Get to the playoffs and anything can happen, especially with two top of the line starters in Bedard and Hernandez. I don’t the the AL West is that far out of reach.
Anyhoo, do you think the M’s first priority now that Kuroda is off the market, will be to make a splash and bring in Bedard?
17 & 19: But, at least if we signed Benson, we’d have smokin’ hot Anna around for a year to look at!
well, if you like plastic …
oh, did I say that outloud?
what’s really sad is that there already at least nine teams lined up to watch Benson throw off the mound next week, to show then his shoulder is ok….
21: Unfortunately I think Bedard for Jones + something else (Morrow / Clement / The Moon) just became much more likely to happen with Kuroda signing with LA. A straight-up deal of Jones OR Morrow for Bedard would be a good deal, IMO. Bevasi is going to give up more than that so your O’s will come out ahead as soon as 2009.
I am filled with white-hot rage by the thought of the sins my team is about to commit.
Gah, must be slim pickin’s when it comes to starting pitching these days…
#22 — My hunch is that Kris wishes he had given Anna an NRI rather than a long term commitment.
#24– you may think a one-for-one deal would be good, but the O’s don’t. They are asking for each team’s best prospect, plus.
it would be nice to be able to go along with Hickey’s hope that losing the Dodgers as competition for Bedard might give the M’s more leverage with the O’s…
Kuroda and Schmidt rebuffed efforts to sign with Seattle, hopefully Lohse and Silva sign elsewhere for less money as well (this might be wishful thinking, as it sounds like Bavasi will be bidding with himself, and in this situation, he’ll still somehow end up overpaying).
How low has the bar been set, where we’ll be thankful to Bavasi for NOT making moves? I’ll consider it a minor miracle if a multi-year $10+million deal isn’t given to Lohse or Silva, and AJ isn’t traded this offseason.
Bavasi really scares me, its almost as if he has consciously tried to make the team worse…and not just in the short term, but long term as well.
I don’t think the M’s are the only suitor still out there. Supposedly the Reds are after him too, and there is usually some other team having talks that with the club that doesn’t get reported. Personally, I like what the M’s and Reds have to offer and the St. Louis papers mentioned that the Cards might consider letting go of Rasmus in a Bedard deal. Of course the O’s are stupidly going to shut out the Yanks and Red Sox becuase they don’t want to trade Bedard within the division.
we’ll see.
26: Agreed! I remember when Stern had her on a while ago…the first thing Baba Booey asked her was: “Isn’t it true the Mets didn’t want to talk to Kris about re-signing largely ‘cuz you were such a pain in the ass?”
TOO funny!
Dave, just out of curiosity, let’s say the Mariners do sign Lohse or Silva, what would you consider a reasonable deal to get each? I ask because I have not heard of any teams showing interest, so I imagine they won’t get the 10 million a year as rumored. So, would a 3 year, 18 million dollar deal be reasonable? Or, would you still rather pass?
At this point I hope they do sign those pitchers, even if they overpay a bit. We’ll be better off in the long run if they can keep Jones and Morrow (and possibly Clement) and hire some temporary help to fill out the pitching staff. They’d be best off not to spend too much on those mid-range pitchers…but Bavasi is going to have to do something. I just want that thing not to hurt the team too much beyond next season.
You’re nuts if you think Silva isn’t going to get 10M+. Lohse will probably be around that figure.
What about getting Roger Clemens, David Wells, and Jon Lieber? I mean, the FO does want to go the route of the Giants and get the most veteran of veterans right? Isn’t Julio Franco a FA too? We could nab him to replace Broussard. And Lofton or Reggie Sanders just in case we need to move Jones.
If we’re looking to go “back to the future” I’m certain Mark Langston and Bill Swift are available. Jeffery Leonard and Dann Howitt can also be had cheap.
I’m convinced that Julio Franco was probably hanging around that day when Mr. Doubleday laid down the first diamond back in the 19th Century…
However, to his credit, I didn’t see his name in the Mitchell Report — so he must’ve been taking care of his body somewhat correctly all these years.
I feel stupid asking this, but isn’t 11 million for Meche a better deal than the same for Lohse, Silva or Kuroda?
#37. Exactly. $11 million for Meche is looking like a bargain. The way baseball economics are going, any figure that seems slightly unreasonable this year will be a deal in two years. What’s to stop that trend? Who did we end up getting after ditching Meche?
Buster Olney thinks we’ll go after Blanton and offer Jones.
That seems a bit foolish.
#23–
I suggest it only because I would rather have Benson on one year than any other pitcher at multiple years (at least more than 2 years). Its a gamble the way that Weaver and Guillen were, and not a long term commitment.
#39– not to mention the one thing Bavasi has said in public is that he won’t give Jones to someone in the division– does Buster think they are that desperate for pitching now?
What do you guys think about Dave Bush? Is he a possible Mariners trade target, and could we get him without giving up too much? Given my limited knowledge of how to read peripheral stats he always seemed to me to be under valued.
#14 – yeah – definitely his most under rated album and appropriately depressing for Ms fans at the moment. Stand Guard should be the USS Mariner theme song.
The Mariners ought to sign Chad Durbin, who was nontendered by the Tigers after they added Willis. Not a great pitcher, but a decent one, and cheap.
And of course black sheets of rain will lead to Mould once everything gets soaked. . .
31-
I’m not Dave, but I agree with him: “the M’s simply don’t need any more overpaid pitch to contact veteran starters, despite the stupid cries about the requirements of upgrading the rotation.”
The M’s do not need Felix and 4 guys with mediocre, pitch to contact stuff, and if they MUST have a rotation that looks like that because there aren’t reasonable alternatives in the farm system or available for trade (which there are, but the M’s have tunnel vision on this), they can find guys off the garbage heap who will do that for one year, low salary deals to go with guys like Baek.
This team’s defense is a much larger problem than the rotation (and upgrading the defense would “upgrade” the rotation- more outs on defense reduces pitch counts and runners on base. There’s a reason why Jarrod Washburn looked good in 2002). They could address that with guys like Adam Everett and dumping Richie Sexson for a Grand Slam at Denny’s. The fact that they aren’t, they keep talking about upgrading the rotation and playing Raul in the OF, and are likely to overpay Carlos Silva to go 8-14 with a 4.87 ERA next year is what’s depressing me, and why Dave and others are having no faith in this organization doing the right thing…
Honestly, with the way things are going, I’d rather take a chance on AAA arms than dropping millions on veteran scrapheaps. I agree with 31 and 45 in that regard. If Jones in outfield means the subtraction of some non-mobile OF arm, I’m all over that one. I’m all for dumping Sexson, Ibanez, AND Vidro, though with our luck the completely useless high BA of Vidro’s will probably lead to a contract extension for predictably unfathomable reasons while Ibanez’s veteran uberness and clubhouse leadership will partner with misc other intangibles to keep him in our outfield until he’s 46.
I can’t imagine anyone being worse than HoRam … someone explain why we hope to plug him into the rotation again? I’ll take my chances with anyone who can throw the ball to the plate with a chance of getting someone out over that pile.
Tek Jansen wrote:
While I agree with the general thrust of your comment, Tek, I disagree with your implicit assumption that if they had not used Morrow in the ‘pen last year, he would have been MLB-ready as a starter by ‘08. They were likely to need to shop for two starters anyway.
That’s not to say the HoRam for Soriano trade wasn’t horrifically stupid. I’m just sayin’….
Just out of curiousity.
M’s fans, would you do this if indeed it was on the table at this very moment?
Jones, Morrow, Clement
for
Bedard
No
48: Ahh, not with Jones, no.
#48 – Short Answer: No – Long Answer: Heck no.
That is exactly what the whole argument is about a potential trade for Bedard is. Giving up literally all of our top prospects for a pitcher. Sure prospects bust, they do that on a daily basis, but out of those three, the chances of getting at least a single all-star caliber player are enough that I’d bet my house on it.
What do we get in return? A single stud (also injury risk) pitcher? Not worth it my friend, not at all.
Now if I went to the M’s website today and the headline is that the M’s traded for Bedard, I’d rather see something along the lines of:
Package #1
Jones or Morrow
Clement + 1 of anything else
Package #2
Jones or Morrow
3 of anything else but Clement.
Take your pick, there is plenty in the minors. Balentien, Chen, Butler, Aumont, Tillman maybe even Truinfel if the M’s are crazy.
Those are my personal daydreams. But I won’t be shocked when Bavasi announces Morrow, Jones, Clement and Truinfel for Bedard and a scrub.
48- I am not a fan of that, which means it should happen in about a week. I would rather build a defensive juggernaut and stick cheap arms on the mound. I hear Everett, Jenkins, and possibly McDonald are looking for work…
Thank you very much for the responses.
To be honest, Clement is not the best fit for the O’s since they just drafted Matt Wieters last year, unless they were planning on flipping him to another team to fill thier hole at SS. But the O’s need talent despite of possible redundancies.
I can’t imagine the M’s trading Jones and Balentien in the same deal. Jones is a slightly better fit, for the O’s, than Balentien because Jones can play CF.
Also wondering the opinion of M’s fans on whether Adam Jones can be moved back to SS, if the O’s were lucky enough to land him.
Lastly, and “inside source” on an O’s site had reported that there was an offer out there, don’t know if it was proposed by the O’s or M’s, of Jones, Morrow, Sherrill and Tony Butler for Bedard. who knows. thanks again for the responses.
BTW, I agree with all of your sentiments.
If I was an M’s fan I would want Bedard, but would be worried about his bolting after 09 and therefore wary of giving up so much talent.
I believe that Adam Everett has already signed with Twins. Choosing them over the O’s, who also supposedly had an offer out for him.
Buster Olney is saying Seattle is after Joe Blanton (via MLBTRs). He also mentions that Beane would demand Jones.
Cross our fingers that one isn’t true.
54- You are right, Thanks. I have been out of touch the last week.
56 – HamNasty, McDonald and Jenkins are still out there. From whose perspective are you looking at these players from? The M’s or the O’s. I’m assuming the M’s, but if so why the interest in guys like Everett and McDonald? Just curious.
Defense from the M’s perspective. I would be up for a Jenkins, Ichiro, Jones OF and sliding a McDonald into a platoon at 2nd and SS so we never have to watch Vidro play the field. If we can get anyone to take Sexson and Lopez keeps growing as a player(size not skill) maybe he turns into a 1st baseman and McDonald or Yuni takes 2nd. This is all moot though because Vidro, Ibanez, Sexson and HoRam are all going to be playing next year.
58 – Pure speculation, obviously, but I wonder if the O’s and M’s have any conversations on expanding the peramiters of a Bedard trade where Brian Roberts is included on our end and Sexson/Lopez are included on the M’s side. Not that it necessarily means anything, but Bavasi and McPhaill are supposed to be very close friends.
But, again, I guessing that Jones would have to be the centerpiece of any Bedard deal and I know you are not for that.
As an O’s fan I’m having Christmas visions of Jones patroling CF. In your opinion, though, could be be shifted back to SS? Or has that train sailed?
Thanks for your time.
59- I would be up for Roberts – Sexson/Lopez additions for sure.
The ship has sailed on Jones as a SS. He has grown into an OF’s body.
60 – The thing about taking on Sexson’s contract, however, is it would probably mean the O’s will get Jones and maybe, possibly, 2 out of Morrow/Clement/Balentien.
We’ll see, I’m probably being an over optimistic O’s fan. It’s fun to speculate.
That’s it. I’m officially buying a Playstation, or an X-Box for Christmas, now.
The issue with trading for Bedard has been addressed — I’d be for that in a heartbeat except that the M’s aren’t a single ace pitcher away from realistically contending. Given that we’re obviously (or at least we should obviously) be in rebuild mode, the point is to keep those prospects and hope to develop some sort of decent core. Additionally, Bedard is assuredly not going to sign a long term extension here in Seattle; at that juncture throwing all the beans away for Santana + extension would make far more sense then 2 years of Bedard.
That said, I won’t be surprised when we trade Aumont, Morrow, Jones, Clement and Truinfel (along with Balentien for good measure) for … Joe Blanton! It’s scary when the FO suckage makes that a fringe possibility.
62 – As an outsider, I see the M’s as a team that can contend for the AL West/Wildcard. But I’ll have to consent that you guys know your team a helluva lot better than I do. But thanks to all of you for humoring me with the Bedard talks. I learned a bunch.
64 – I meant 63. sorry.
64 – the 2008 Mariners will be competing for 2nd place at best (unless the Angel’s plane crashes), and 2nd place in the West is not going to cut it for the Wildcard. 2008 is 2007, with the old guys getting older and (hopefully) the young guys getting better. Considering the luck factor in their 2007 results and the FO’s irrational attachment to veterans, a repeat of 2007 is best case.
There’s a reason I finally dropped our season tickets this year after 6 years. I have zero confidence this team is going to sniff the playoffs anytime soon with this management group.
I don’t ever see the M’s acquiring Joe Blanton after the Blanton/Ichiro/Ellison debacle of last year. I suppose nobody is remembering that when talking about acquiring Blanton.
67 – Oh wow, I had completely forgotten about that. Personally I thought Ellison was suicidal because Blanton could probably snap him in half lol. Beane is going to ask for the sun and moon for Blanton especially if it’s in the division, I’d steer clear of that option if at all possible.
Ellis Carver: Hey we’re friendly folks. Good luck to your O’s next season. If you want to throw in Brian Roberts and get back Sexson/Lopez I’d definitely have to give it a much longer look.. still not sure I’d take it if it involved both Jones and Morrow going away.
Just a minor quibble with the final line of Dave’s comment.
Now, no offense whatsoever is intended to those fans who root for a franchise – if it adds to your enjoyment, however masochistic for spells (or in the case of the Cubs or Royals, decades), I am not even mildly surprised by your choice – there are plenty of BASEBALL fans who really love the game and hold a different perspective.
Fans like myself love the game (at any level) on the field, the history that sets up each game, particular players and personalities (as people and “legends”), and the teams that create and develop the narrative of the sport. The money-talk and the front office are almost never important to maintaining my interest, except out of necessity – the “business” of baseball as it is today is more and more the main obstacle to my enjoying the professional game.
I am interested in the shape a particular team takes much more than in winning and losing (though winning is more fun, in moderation, while losing has very limited charm for this fan) and therefore I simply have lost my taste for the current Mariners, though having my most favorite player Ichiro, as well as Johjima, and Beltre means I will be shadowing the team more closely than, say, the Diamondbacks or Marlins.
The current team is not much fun to watch (on TV at least), win or lose, and the apparant idiocy of the FO, and the succession of sickeningly awful managers, who actually interfere with what I see as the team’s “organi form” mean I finally gave up my “Mariners’ fan” status – not that anyine should care.
To say it more simply, I don’t give a flying f— about the publiser, I want to be able to enjoy the book.
May the Mariners find themselves, and find themselves under good management as well, in 2008!
67: Ahh, yes…but stranger things have happened. Remember when Clemens used to head-hunt A-Rod years ago — with words exchanged on occasion? It didn’t really preclude the Yanks from eventually winding up with both of them at the same time.
And I’ll bet those two never even mention that to each other these days, either.
70- Well that was all on account of Clemens Roid-Rage so A-Rod forgave him.
I totally agree with 45 that the main problem for the M’s is defense and that unless this is addressed, it really won’t matter who is in the rotation. Felix’s stats last year were absolutely destroyed by our defense….there’s no way someone with his stuff should be giving up over a hit an inning. With an adequate defense, Felix is the #1 starter we need. Hopefully, Bavasi will see this and go for some below-the-radar starters via trade, such as Howell or Jackson from Tampa Bay, and sign someone like Colon as a free agent.
I question whether Bavasi would consider trading Jones….who would we have in right field without him? Balentien? I just can’t imagine that Bavasi would be counting on that working out….
#72: Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, don’t jinx it. Remember last year. . .