Carlos Silva
Okay, so, obviously, the initial reaction to the potential Silva signing isn’t very positive. But, I know a lot of people still just look at innings and ERA and say “he’s not bad – what’s the problem?” However, as your broker has probably told you, past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance, and the M’s aren’t paying for what Silva used to be, but instead, what he will be going forward.
So, let’s take a look at what Carlos Silva’s actual skills are, and how those project into 2008 and beyond.
What Does He Throw?
Let’s take a look at Silva’s Pitch F/X card, made possible by the hard work of Josh Kalk. What we see right off the bat is that Silva is essentially a two pitch guy, primarily throwing a low 90s sinker (his version of a two-seam fastball) and a low 80s change-up. He also has a slider, but he hardly ever uses it.
The sinking two-seam fastball has several basic characteristics that are true in almost every instance, regardless of which pitcher is throwing it – it’s average in velocity, induces groundballs, is fairly easy to throw for a strike, almost never gets batters to swing and miss, and is far more effective against same-handed hitters.
Pitchers who feature a two-seam fastball often show significant platoon splits on that pitch, and if they don’t have a separate offering to keep opposite handed hitters off balance, they can often struggle. Silva uses his change-up to keep left-handed hitters off balance, but it’s clearly not as good of a pitch as his sinker – he doesn’t command it as well, it moves less, and since it’s 10 MPH slower, it can be a meatball if it’s not located correctly.
The slider is essentially a show-me pitch, used only when he’s ahead in a count where he’s going for a strikeout, and he only throws it when he can afford to miss out of the strike zone and hope the batter chases a bad ball. As you can see here, Silva actually doesn’t bury his slider in the dirt the way most pitchers do (think of everyone who ever pitches to Adrian Beltre), but instead throws it towards the outer half of the plate against RH batters and up in the strike zone. Because he doesn’t have much bite or velocity on his slider, it’s not a true outpitch – only 11 of the 110 sliders that the Pitch F/X system registered resulted in swings and misses.
So, from this, we can see that he’s primarily a sinker/change-up guy, with the change-up being a below average pitch, and the slider really being just for show. In scouting terms, he’s a two pitch guy with only one of those pitches being better than average, and it’s a pitch designed to induce contact.
Why Has He Been Successful?
With stuff that could easily be described as below average and an incomplete repertoire that usually gets a guy with his arsenal sent to the bullpen, Silva could certainly be described as something of an overachiever. After all, he’s thrown 945 innings in his five year career and produced decent results. How has he managed to pull that off?
Well, to start with, Silva has plus plus command – he can generally spot his pitches wherever he wants at any given time. The ball goes exactly where he wants it to go a huge majority of the time. Because of his pinpoint command, Silva’s been able to essentially eliminate the base on balls from games in which he pitches (he walked a crazy low nine guys the entire season in 2005), reducing the damage his opponents can do to simply putting the bat on the ball. if they don’t swing, he wins, every single time.
This approach can work quite well against bad hitters or when you have superior defensive players behind you. By forcing the opponent to put the ball in play in order to produce runs, you increase the variable outcomes that can occur. If your fielders make a bunch of great plays on hard hit balls, and you’re not walking anyone, well, you’re going to get a lot of outs. Or, alternately, if the hitters are a bunch of pansy slap-hitting ninnies (think Reggie Willits) who are just trying to get a walk so they don’t have to show everyone how weak they really are, then throwing the ball down the middle exposes their weakness.
However, this approach doesn’t work as well against hitters who can whack anything in the strike zone. When you’re hoping the hitter gets himself out and the hitter turns out to be David Ortiz, well, you’re in trouble.
How Does This Skillset Project?
While Silva’s built a nice little career for himself, the list of guys who have been able to sustain a quality level of performance through the throw-average-stuff-right-down-the-middle path to success is remarkably short. Essentially, the margin for error when you’re living off your command is tiny, and any loss in command can have disastrous consequences. Unlike a power pitcher who misses bats and can still dominate even if he’s lost a few MPH on his fastball, command artists have very little to compensate with for any loss of their primary skill. If his command goes from fantastic to just good, then there’s very little difference between Carlos Silva and any number of the hundreds of guys putzing around Triple-A waiting for an opportunity in the majors.
So, Silva’s success is essentially predicated on his ability to retain his otherworldly command, and in the history of baseball, there haven’t been that many guys who have been able to sustain that level of command for long periods of time. There are a few, but the odds are certainly not in Silva’s favor.
Is He A Good Fit For The Mariners?
Well, they’ve convinced themselves that they have to spend money on starting pitchers, and he’s a starting pitcher who wanted money, so maybe the answer is yes. But, if you dig deeper, I’d argue that the answer is a resounding no.
Because of his specific repertoire, Silva has some obvious strengths and just as obvious weaknesses. He’s strong against right-handed hitters, especially ones who try to hit the ball in the air or are patient, walk drawing types. He struggles against left-handed hitters, and he’s always going to run a larger than average platoon split; teams with lots of left-handed hitters will light him up.
The Mariners play in a park that is death to right-handed hitters but extremely friendly for left-handed power hitters. In other words, the Mariners park and Silva’s strengths are not complementary – they both take out the same kind of hitter. So, while Silva will give guys like Mark Ellis fits during games in Seattle, there’s nothing stopping Eric Chavez or Casey Kotchman or Jack Cust from jacking his sinking fastball down the right field line. Safeco’s not going to do anything to help his struggles against lefties, and there’s a significant diminishing return in terms of Safeco’s value to helping him limit right-handed hitters. If he’s already shutting them down on his own with groundball inducing sinkers, the fact that he’s got a cavernous left field behind him just isn’t that big of a deal anymore.
While Jarrod Washburn’s skills are essentially the perfect match for Safeco, Silva is the exact opposite of the kind of pitcher Safeco was built for. It will still help him, but it will help him significantly less than it would a different type of pitcher, meaning that the Mariners are still not building their roster to suit the specific advantages of their home park.
In addition, the Mariners already have two right-handed pitchers who throw a lot of two-seam fastballs and struggle against left-handed hitters. In many ways, Silva’s weaknesses are exactly the same as Felix Hernandez’s and Miguel Batista’s, and a team with a strong left-handed lineup is going to love facing the Mariners starting pitching rotation.
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One question,
If Silva has plus plus location, why is he also labeled as an average-stuff-right-down-the middle guy? Wouldn’t he be average-stuff-throw-it-where-he-wants guy? That’s a bit better.
He’s not Roger Clemens reincarnate or anything, but I like him better than Ho-Ram. I guess I don’t really hate this move like everyone else here seems to. 11 mil. for an average back end starter seems to be the going rate, and I don’t think he’s going to hurt us like Ho-Ram did. Especially if he can eat some innings.
Say it aint so. Why do the Mariners insist on mediocre pitching? How can we expect Felix to develop if he’s got nothing to follow? Yet another pitcher that Mariner fans can’t look forward to watching. Good job Bavasi, way to build fan base. I don’t know about you, but Silva makes me want to jump up and buy season tickets.
How bout we look into TB picthing. They have a log jam at SP over there, some of which would probably come pretty cheap.
This is good stuff….at least outside Casey Kotchman and Garrett Anderson, the Angels don’t offer much in terms of lefty power bats.
Question: How do we know he can throw it wherever he wants? Scouting reports? Maybe he is just really good at throwing it down the middle…I dunno, I am just thinking out loud here…
The question I have, Dave, is what do the M’s think they have to do now? I am actually ok with Silva, only because he is a mediocre pitcher who requires only money to bring in. He may be a back-end starter for us when it is all said and done, and tie up salary, but prospects are still in place to make me feel a little warm and fuzzy.
If the M’s get Bedard and mortgage the future for him, then Silva looks even worse. He’s better than HoRam, and I can take getting an upgrade there for only cash. If he’s a second prong on a plan that signs him for big money AND loses us future returns for one pitcher like Bedard, then the “package” of moves is problematic.
I wanted us to get Kuroda only because he required no players in return and even if the Mariners didn’t solve their problems, perhaps we’d still have the tools to fight another day. As I’ve said before the best thing for the team right now is for big name trades to go elsewhere.
He’s not Roger Clemens reincarnate or anything, but I like him better than Ho-Ram.
Also could apply to “the clap sucks, but it’s not herpes!”
Most people just set their bar a little higher.
11 mil. for an average back end starter seems to be the going rate
No, it’s not – it’s the going rate for stupid teams who don’t understand that there are other ways to build a team than through free agency. It’s like saying the going rate for chicken is $14.95/lb because that’s what Whole Foods sells it for and you’re too lazy to go to Safeway.
The M’s are paying a premium for a back-end starter when they don’t have to. This just perpetuates the organization overpaying for things they don’t need because they don’t understand what’s actually wrong with their team.
Hm. I consider that more fortuitous coincidence as opposed to any long range thinking by the team….
My years of watching the Jackal pitch for my Twins can anecdotally corroborate Dave’s analysis here pretty much entirely.
One thing to note is that Silva’s mistake pitches are punished and punished *badly* by opposing sluggers. One of the big reasons his 2006 was so rough was that his HR rate almost doubled over his surrounding seasons. When he keeps the ball in the park he can be successful (common wisdom re: sinkerballers definitely applies here), though.
Also, and I know this is a bit touchy-feely for a stat-based forum, he has issues when he gets worked up emotionally. Especially when he felt like he was losing games because of the bullpen, he’d get antsy and start overthrowing, which led to the sinker not sinking, which meant he started throwing 93mph straight fastballs instead of 89-90mph sinkers…with results that I’m sure I don’t need to spell out for you.
Here are the Mariner’s defensive efficiency statistics for 2007, by starter, along with their 2007 ground ball out/fly out ratios (GO/AO):
DEF GO/AO
Washburn .703 0.79
Batista .687 1.14
Weaver .663 0.79
Hernandez .658 2.77
Ramirez .643 1.73
Last year, the M’s DEF for pitchers with a GO/AO ratio >1 was .661. For those pitchers with a GO/AO ratio <1, the DEF was .688. This seems to clearly indicate that the M’s defense in 2007 penalized pitchers who gave up a lot of ground balls. Felix Hernandez is a great example of this, as he is an extreme ground ball pitcher who last year gave up more hits on balls in play than Jeff Weaver.
Carlos Silva has a lifetime GO/AO ratio of 1.59. He is likely to be a right-handed Horacio Ramirez for $44 million.
Wow, excellent analysis, Dave. I learned a couple new things in there. And not just in regards to Silva, but pitching in general. Thanks a lot.
If his command goes from fantastic to just good, then there’s very little difference between Carlos Silva and any number of the hundreds of guys putzing around Triple-A waiting for an opportunity in the majors.
You seem to be really concerned that Silva’s control is going to vanish into thin air, and I guess I just don’t readily see the case for that. Where are all of the pitchers who have had control like his over a 3-4 year period and then seen it vanish? I’ll grant that there are very few pitchers who have maintained this type of control, but at the same time, it seems like we’re talking about a very small group of pitchers who have ever even acheived this type of control.
Basically, if we’re going to talk about the odds that Silva will lose his control, it seems like we need to know about how few pitchers retained that level of control after getting there, and how many pitchers got there and lost it.
Last year, the M’s DEF for pitchers with a GO/AO ratio >1 was .661. For those pitchers with a GO/AO ratio <1, the DEF was .688. This seems to clearly indicate that the M’s defense in 2007 penalized pitchers who gave up a lot of ground balls.
No, it really doesn’t. If you read the Evaluating Pitcher Talent post, you’ll see that ground balls become outs 74.8% of the time and outfield fly balls become outs 77.7% of the time. We should naturally expect that ground ball pitchers will have a lower DER than fly ball pitchers, even in a totally neutral park with a neutral defense.
So basically this rotation was built to fail against Cleveland, NY and Boston. Great.
12, granted, but when the defense of a team is so below average, then hiring a pitcher who specializes in pitching to contact doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense unless you also plan to improve the defense. Plus, it seems statistically that the Safeco layout would favor pitchers who give up less ground balls, as long as you have the outfielders to catch them.
Over the years, the M’s pitching staff has gradually but consistently become more ground ball oriented. In 2001, we “threw” 1544 GO to 1754 AO. In 2007, we threw 1661 GO to 1546 AO. During that time frame, our DEF has also gone from the best in baseball to close to the worst.
Our only defensive upgrade so far this off-season is the replacement of Guillen with Jones. This will help with the outfield defense, but our pitching staff will be more ground ball oriented than ever. It’s hard to imagine Silva thriving in Safeco unless the infield defense is strengthened considerably.
And if the infield defense is strengthened, we might be surprised at the “improvement” in Hernanez and Ramirez.i
Incidentally, I calculate a team DEF of .674 last year. If ground balls become outs 74.8%, and fly balls 77.7%, then our defense really did stink last year.
Incidentally, I calculate a team DEF of .674 last year. If ground balls become outs 74.8%, and fly balls 77.7%, then our defense really did stink last year.
There are more types of balls in play than just ground balls and fly balls. Not to say the defense didn’t stink, but you haven’t discovered the evidence of it.
please. god. do not let bavasi trade jones for bedard. let this be the last pitching move of the off-season. please.
People, remember, this is the club that seems to think Vidro is a viable DH, Raul can still play the outfield well and walks aren’t important.
Should any of this be very surprising?
please. god. do not let bavasi trade jones for bedard. let this be the last pitching move of the off-season. please.
Not to worry, brother, Bavasi won’t trade Jones for Bedard. He will trade Jones, Morrow, and Clement for Bedard.
granted, but when the defense of a team is so below average, then hiring a pitcher who specializes in pitching to contact doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense unless you also plan to improve the defense.
I agree with the assertion that it’s silly to build a staff around guys who induce a lot of contact with a poor defense, but you’re trying to say that ground ball pitchers are especially penalized, and you still haven’t come up with a legitimate argument for that.
The team should improve the defense regardless of whether or not they signed Silva, and they can improve the defense a lot just by getting Ibanez and Sexson off the field.
So basically what you are telling me is that my seats in RF will be a great place to grab a souvenir when Silva pitches?
I feel that I am emotionally unable to freak out about this poor decision. I expected our rotation to be poor next year so this does not change that. The fact that they are willing to pay him more than Randy wanted in ‘99 just shows that Chuck Armstrong has presided over a ton of bad decisions during his tenure.
16 & 18…You better also include Sherrill and Vlad to the list as well…it is Bavasi after all.
Ok, so Greg Maddux (the best ever at winning with this skillset) goes for $10m and only one year.
Cha Baek walked 2/9ip last year, (but was burdened by far more Ks) and he’s essentially free. [or fill in your favorite minor league control specialist here].
Josh Towers is on the non-tendered scrap heap and walked 1.8/9, and he K’d over 6/9.
Where is the proof that the ‘market’ for players of this type is anywhere close to 4/$44? The market for Carlos Silva apparently was, but that’s a totally separate question; one that’s sullied by stupid answers.
I’d take Silva for 3/$17.
Too bad for me, eh?
19, when I did my study of the DEF, I took a look at what the effect was depending on who was playing what position, in the hope that I would be able to perhaps isolate the problems. Based on the numbers that were generated, I came away with no really good conclusions. For example, here are the DEF’s for each primary starting defensive player as compared with the DEF when they weren’t in:
1B Sexson .683, not Sexson .654
2B Lopez .678, not Lopez .650
3B Beltre .678, not Beltre .647
SS Betancourt .673, not Betancourt .691
LF Ibanez .669, not Ibanez .695
CF Suzuki .672, not Suzuki .712
RF Guillen .669, not Guillen .720
C Johjima .667, not Johjima .700
So what, if anything, can be deduced from this list? Is Betancourt a problem on defense, or did we just have better replacements at SS than the other positions. Is Sexson really a defensive problem? Because he was a heck of a lot better than the alternatives (especially Broussard .638).
So basically this rotation was built to fail against Cleveland, NY and Boston. Great.
I am less concerned about that. We only play each of these teams about 7 to 9 times in the regular season. If we somehow make it to the postseason, the bottom part of your rotation doesn’t matter much, especially with the new diluted schedule.
For example, here are the DEF’s for each primary starting defensive player as compared with the DEF when they weren’t in:
There are many better ways to measure defense than this, and there’s really no reason to suspect this will give you an answer very close to the truth.
Dave:
Thanks for this thread-the write up was pure joy to read.
Bonus points for the snark too….
This was excellent. I especially appreciate the last paragraph as to whether or not he fits in at safeco.
ooh, let’s see what happens when Miracle Mel gets through with him…
Seems to me, a lot of similar words were spent on Batista, last year. I guess it’s not that simple to predict the future.
which really has nothing to do with a Silva contract.
I used to look forward to the offseason. Now I just dread every day. Its as if every day the sports section is reduced to reading the obituary of my summer fun in 2008. I just hopes he doesn’t sign any more long term deals and does not trade anyone of consequence and we can get through to next off season when the whole thing is blown up.
Seems to me, a lot of similar words were spent on Batista, last year. I guess it’s not that simple to predict the future.
http://ussmariner.com/2006/12/11/miguel-batista/
Seems to me that you don’t know how to read, and you contribute nothing to the blog. Meet the moderation queue – you two should get along well.
If Silva maintains his command, what kind of performance should we expect?
Something close to 200 innings seems reasonable. Does league average also seem reasonable?
Trying to be positive:
Under what realistic scenario would Silva turn out to be better than we thought? Would he have to take his command to some Maddux-level? Would he have to develop a second out-pitch like a cut fastball? Or is he forever doomed to be beholden to his team’s defense on a particular day and the other teams L/R lineup splits?
I’m trying to think of where the potential upside could be so I can stay positive and look for some encouraging signs in Spring Training or early in the season.
Thoughts?
I just wanted to say thanks (once again) for the link Dave. Those Pitch F/X cards are really cool. Thanks to Josh Kalk as well!
I’ve never seen so many people re-directed to the Evaluating Pitchers post. Seems like both Silva threads have exposed a lot, eh? Eh?
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go re-read the Evaluating Pitchers post so I don’t say anything stupid.
Wow, that sucked the hesitant optimism right out of me. I sure hope Yuni and Lopez can put together a better year, if this is what we’re getting. I wonder how long Sexson stays in if he can’t turn things around? I can’t imagine him putting up 2007 numbers again, but if he started that way, and the crowd kept booing, doesn’t McLaren have to give up at some point? And then what?
Anyway, one good thing, minor as it may be: if Jones is patrolling RF, maybe the damage can be mitigated, although there’s not much Jones can do beyond the short porch. Also, with Beltre being our most reliable infielder, Silva may be okay against righties… if only Ibanez wasn’t behind him. Man, there are too many holes in this defense.
How much better is Carlos Silva than, say, Clay Hensley?
#32.. You used to look forward to the offseason? Under which GM??
Assuming Silva is league average over 200 IP (ERA=4.6) and replacement level is an ERA of 5.70, Silva would be roughly 2.5 wins better than replacement. That suggests he’d be worth $10 to 11.5M. While I’m not arguing the Silva signing was a good one, the M’s don’t seem to be dramatically overpaying for what seems like a reasonable expectation (to me anyway) in year one.
Compared to Weaver in ‘07, a league average Silva would be a 2.5 win upgrade over Weaver’s 150 innings pitched.
Anyway, woohoo and all that jazz.
Wait, they’re signing Carlos Silva?
I guess being incredibly overworked right now does have its merits. I’m too tired to do what I want to do: Throw everything within arm’s reach and bang my head against my desk in total exasperation, then asking why I even bothered to renew my 16-game plan to watch a more expensive version of HoRam.
With the new pitching coach in Seattle, is there any chances of him improving an out pitch against lefties? It seems that we invested in a great coach maybe he can improve this guy enough to make it a decent signing?
35 – his command already is Maddux level. He just doesn’t miss bats like Maddux.
I’m hearing a lot of, “Our coach will make our bad pitchers better,” this offseason. I’m curious if there is a detailed study on pitching coaches and their potential ‘value’ to a club.
Maybe he can master a screwball.
Maybe they’re hoping Dickey will teach Silva to throw a knuckleball.
So here’s the question, Dave: How does Silva stack up against the back end starters the Mariners already have (Cha Seung Baek/Ryan Rowland/Horacio Ramirez)? Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t he AT MOST a minor improvement with a solid chance at being worse (worse than Baek or Rowland, it seems unlikely that he could be be worse than Ramirez)?
I’m really not surprised that the Mariners are close to signing Silva. As I posted in an earlier thread, for public relations purposes the Mariners can’t afford to finish this season without creating the perception that they have attacked the problems in the starting rotation. While knowledgeable fans might know they can accomplish the same thing by upgrading the defense, the vast portion of the fan base won’t understand that concept. Nor will the vast portion of the fan base understand that Silva doesn’t offer much more than any number of cheaper options.
From the PR standpoint, adding Silva is perceived as the Mariners getting the best available FA starter, and Silva is viewed as a veteran who has been successful. They really couldn’t afford to let Silva get away, and they had the money burning a hole in their pocket.
*****
Of course, a bigger issue is that the need to sign a Silva – for at least PR purposes – is the direct result of having fumbled in so many previous seasons. They have no credibility running a promotional campaign that says “Trust us. Even though we didn’t add any well-known starters, we know what we’re doing.”
Does Silva’s arbitration status figure into this evaluation at all?
He wasn’t offered arbitration and is a Type B Free Agent, from what I can see. If I understand all that correctly, this would be a small advantage to signing Silva over another (overpriced, mediocre) free agent pitcher – our draft status is improved in a small measure because he wasn’t offered arbitration by the Twins.
Maybe I’m reaching, but our track record with recent drafts is pretty decent, and this seems to be one slightly mitigating factor.
If I had to pick the lesser of two evils from trading Jones, et al for Bedard / Santana / Blanton and signing someone for stupid money, I’ll take stupid money all the time.
Whomever we trade away we can’t get back. In this era of baseball profit absurdity, the money shouldn’t really be a consideration anymore. Even if the M’s brass grumbles about it, they’ve got quite a bit of money to throw around.
With a bunch of scratch coming off the books after this season, it’s managable. And if this is the extent of our pitching solutions this offseason, it doesn’t make us a winner in 2008, but doesn’t blow away our chances in 2009 either.
I’m fine with this.
IF,and this is a big IF, the signing of Silva prevents the M’s from sending Jones, Morrow, Clement, etc away for Bedard I’m happy with it. From a numbers perspective, here are some for Silva:
K% – 9.8 – BAD
BB% – 4.2 – TERRIFIC
LD% -19.7 – AVERAGE
FB% – 31.5 – GOOD
GB% – 48.7 – CLOSE TO TERRIFIC
LOB% – 72.0 – LEAGUE AVERAGE
HR/FB% – 11.1 – LEAGUE AVERAGE
None of the above are park adjusted so you have to take that into consideration. But his ERA+ the past 4 seasons have been 112, 129, 75, and 103 which are park adjusted so…he’s pretty average. That 75 was a bad season but his HR/FB was high (16.1%) as was his BABIP (.322) and his LOB% was 66.9% (a bit low). For comparison, the 129 has a HR/FB of 12.2% (2nd highest of his career) but a BABIP of .289 and LOB% of 76.4% (both career bests) while everything else was close to career average (i.e. – don’t expect another season like that from him).
Is there a platoon split? Definitely and it’s not a good one for Safeco (as Dave pointed out). At least it’s one good reason to have Jones in RF although an upgrade at 1B would be helpful as well. I guess we can’t have our cake and eat it too.
I think the bottom line is that this isn’t the worst signing in the world (Colon/Weaver/Ho for 4 and 44 are good examples of what could be worse but that’s setting the bar really low). The in-house options would definitely be better for the cost. I’d rather see Baek/Feierabend myself but I’m not going to go rooting for the Rays because of this, that’s for sure.
Assuming Silva is league average over 200 IP (ERA=4.6) and replacement level is an ERA of 5.70, Silva would be roughly 2.5 wins better than replacement.
Whatever method Bill James employs for projection has him at a 4.61 ERA (4.69 FIP) over 199 IP, and ZiPS has him at a 4.89 ERA (~4.60 FIP) over 190 IP. So your 200 IP, 4.60 ERA estimate seems pretty reasonable.
For comparison, ZiPS has Baek projected for a 5.48 ERA (~5.20 FIP), and Ramirez projected for a 5.86 ERA (~5.60 FIP). Most of the other internal candidates mentioned (namely Rowland-Smith and Morrow) have projection issues since they were relievers last year.
speaking of Miracle Mel, he’s on KOMO right now on the hot stove show– which I believe they put up on the site the next day. So far, he’s dealt in generalities.
Envirohawk,
Silva is not Type B free agent. He’s a type nothing (thanks to his atrocious 2006 numbers), so even if he had been offered arbitration, the Mariners still wouldn’t have had to give up any draft picks.
And I know Elias’ rankings are very weird, but the fact that we’re offering at least $44 million to a guy who wasn’t even Type B is pretty hilarious. And painful.
#45, I’d love to know. As a Cardinals fan, I hear that quite a bit, and am skeptical of Duncan’s alleged pixie dust.
One thing that is apparent to me, however, is that if your pitching coach is an asset, there’s no reason to go overpay (or pay market rate, same thing in the FA market place) for that. Dumpster diving for Kip Wells is one thing (and maybe you saw how that worked out) but rushing to give Joel Pineiro a two-year deal when he hasn’t been any good in — well you guys know the answer to that — BECAUSE a pitching coach sees something in 60 innings seems incredibly foolish.
If there is much to it, and I’m not sold that there is in the slightest, it should be a mechanism for obtaining undervalued commodities.
Dave, just wanted to say that as an aforementioned fan of a team in a different league, I love the blog and love the insight.
Re #56
Speaking as a Cardinal fan, this offseason has made me cry. I too am also skeptical of Dave Duncan Is Magic.
lol, espn has a writeup on this, and I think that even ESPN knows this is a dubious signing. The very first word of the artice? “Desperate”
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3160632
and in the “oh shit” category, they say that it appears we are still actively pursuing a trade for Bedard!
Goodbye farm system . . .
Oh well, it won’t hurt to lose Adam Jones considering that Mac never played him. /sarcasm
Dave, would you say Burke Badenhop is Carlos Silva without all the dollars attached?
You know, perhaps I’m just being overly optimistic here (or perhaps pesimistic, depending on your point of view), but all this Silva talk seems to have come about after a great deal of dicussion with the O’s regarding Bedard. Could it be that someone in the M’s front office has floated the signing imminence rumors to get a better price out of the O’s? Think about it. After all this time, you’d think that they would have to be within spitting distance of a deal, and a little pressure could be just the thing to move it along.
And on another note, if they didn’t sign Silva, what would they do with their offseason money pile? If Jones stays, they’d be covered (or at least think they were) at every field position, they’d still have a pretty strong bullpen, and you can’t (or at least shouldn’t) plow all that money into the bench. I think the opportunity here is for Bavasi to take on a bad Baltimore contract or two and keep the farm system intact. Whether Baltimore wants to do that or not is another matter, but I would think that any GM would jump at the chance to dump some dead weight.
In general I agree with Dave’s breakdown and bottom line, but here’s a few more numbers to pile on. Ron Shandler’s Forecaster projects Silva at 4.54 ERA, and the numbers are based on his past stats are somewhat inflated by the inflatable park he’s been in, although Dave’s point about Safeco’s achilles heel playing to Silva’s weakness is well taken.
Shandler’s bottom line number is Base Player Value of 47. For comparison, Washburn is 39, Felix is 83, and HoRam is -6. On that note, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Rafeal Soriano’s number…123.
And on another note, if they didn’t sign Silva, what would they do with their offseason money pile?
Not spend it? Spend it on a one year deal for Bartolo Colon? Matt Clement? Josh Towers? Mark Prior? Anyone with functioning organs willing to take a one year deal? Come to their senses about being covered at every position and sign Geoff Jenkins? Since unspent money doesn’t roll over into the coming seasons’ budgets, they should certainly find a way to spend it. However, this isn’t just spending the current “offseason money pile” – it’s blowing through a significant chunk of the next three piles too.
Mel Stottlemeyer is now the pitching coach. Before we get too down on the M’s management lets see how he can work with these pitchers. If they have the ability, (which might be questionable)he might be able to get the best out of them. If he does, Silva may be a good fit after all. Lets wait and see.
TumwaterMike: Why is Silva a better candidate gain value from Stottlemeyer than any other pitcher? If Mel can get the best out of Silva, he can get the best out of Pitcher X on a 1 year, $5 million deal, since Silva isn’t significantly better than Colon/Towers/Baek/tonsofotherdudes. The best pitching coach in the world does not make 4/44 for Silva a good deal.
Last Summer Jayson Stark of ESPN brought up this revealing statistic.
WORST RUN SUPPORT through June 21st.
Runs per 9 IP
#1 – Carlos Silva 2.94
…of run support from the anemic Twins offense
The Mariners averaged 4.9 runs per game last season, so maybe the 13-14 W-L record may be a bit deceiving. Maybe we’re getting an underated pitcher despite the initial thought of “great, another overpaid .500″ pitcher…
It doesn’t matter what the players do, it’s the parameters of the deal at the time it’s made that count when evaluating a deal. And this is not a good deal based on today’s numbers. While I agree with a lot of people that it’s a good thing the M’s aren’t giving up talent for Silva, the money is clearly better spent elsewhere. The marginal improvement Silva is likely to bring is not commensurate with the money he’s guaranteed to take out of the M’s budget for the next three years.
Jarrod Washburn’s skills are essentially the perfect match for Safeco
Thank you Dave, I haven’t laughed so hard in weeks! What does that mean exactly? The perfect match for Safeco = 4-9 W-L; WHIP- 1.49; and in between 6-7Ks per nine and 3-4 walks per nine at home…perfect!
Two points.
1. It seems to me that while this park would fit a LH version of Silva better then the real version, it still will make an impact. Not every LH hitter is a dead pull hitter, nor does Silva always get righties out. So yes, this is not a perfect fit for Safeco, but Safeco is still a pitcher’s park. It isn’t like he is going to GABP in Cincinnati or Houston’s park.
2. Since we now have three “groundballers” on our team, it is wise to improve in-field defense more so then outfield defense. As stated early, the easiest way to improve infield D is to remove Sexson. The easiest way to improve the outfield D is to remove Ibanez. The plan seems to involve moving Sexson to another team, or form a platoon with Ibanez. I fear that will we would improve OF defense, Ibanez at first still hurts the IF D. Therefore I propose Mientkiewicz. He would add a lefty bat, and drastically improve IF defense. I believe this is now the key to the season. Improving IF defense.
67,
You have much to learn, young padawan.
Thank you Dave, I haven’t laughed so hard in weeks! What does that mean exactly? The perfect match for Safeco = 4-9 W-L; WHIP- 1.49; and in between 6-7Ks per nine and 3-4 walks per nine at home…perfect!
You have provided similar merriment to those of us with a clue as to how one properly evaluates pitching. Cheers.
Jayson Stark(!) factoid from 10 weeks of ‘07 season > Dave’s 1,300 words of evidence above
How could I have missed that!
Maybe someone should read the recomended reading….
*sigh*
As a Twins fan, I would say that while Silva can be confounding, I think there is genuine hope he will stay a decent pitcher, and could even improve. We all thought he was washed up in 2006, but there are reasons to think his bounce back was real.
I don’t have scouting skills myself but the consensus in the press was that his sinker ball just wasn’t sinking in 2006. Until then he basically threw nothing but sinkers, so losing that pitch was a disaster. His success was based on not walking people and getting a lot of ground balls. So while he gave up tons of singles, he also got a lot of double plays, and the hits didn’t do much damage because there were no free passes. Without a sinker, he became a fly ball pitcher and gave up a lot of home runs. It was a total disaster.
But in 2007, he not only seemed to get his sinker back, but because he got demoted to the minors, he had time to work on a changeup. So now, he mis less predictable, and there is hope that his changeup will continue to improve, since it’s a recent addition.
I don’t think there’s any reason to fear he will lose his control. Any pitcher could, in theory, but if anything he is a smaller risk at losing his control than just about anyone else, because that historically has been his strength. His narrow margin of error depends mostly on the movement of his sinker, and an improving changeup means his upside is actually better than his career average.
He will never dominate, and if his sinker isn’t working, he could implode. But except for 2006, his track record seems to show that what he can do, he can do pretty consistently. I think you’ll probably get a durable, average pitcher with an ERA around 4.5.
The money and length of the contract is a joke, and I’m not saying he’s worth that, but overpaying is a given in the free agent market. Apparently overpaying in dollars was considered better than giving up talent in a trade. As a Twins fan, I envy you that your management would even consider such an option! In Minnesota, money trumps all.
Fortunately we’ve got young pitchers who can produce the same numbers for free, so the contract would have been a disaster here, and would have cost us any chance of signing even marginal people for our other glaring holes. But for a team where even average pitching could fill a glaring hole, you could do worse than Silva. Four years is totally crazy, but maybe in four years, 11 million will seem like nothing. Who knows.
Of course if you’re willing to sink 44M on Silva, you might as well just throw in another 100M and get Santana. There’s a guy who could teach Felix how to pitch!
65: Aside from the humor of using run support to make your point, Silva is perceived (begrudgingly by most) as the best free agent pitcher this year. He’s getting a multi-year deal for $10+ million and he’s generously a decent #4, but on a good team, he’s just a good #5.
68: true, he’ll get extra help against righties, but the point is that he doesn’t really need it. Further, though not every lefty is a pull hitter, the ones you worry about tend to be. Safeco will simply magnify his biggest weakness (aside from the weakness of not striking anyone out). He’s certainly not worth the reported contract in any stadium, but why pay for the privilege of Silva’s reputation (is that even very good? I can’t figure out why he’s getting so much $) when you can find someone for much less money and fewer years who has a similar talent level and would maximize the benefits of Safeco.
I’m sorry, I basically repeated Dave’s points. But, since they seem to have been overlooked the first time, a repetition isn’t necessarily redundant.
Jeff’s analysis over at LL is spot on.
Carlos Silva = Josh Towers.
The Royals have reportedly offerred 3 and 30. based on their history of overpaying, I am praying that the 4 years is a false report. Clearly if silva got a 4/44 offer he wouldnt have much to “mull over”. Is there any chance that the 4 years came from the agent in hopes that KC would go 4/40 forcing the mariners to go 4 years.
http://www.twincities.com/walters/ci_7746734?nclick_check=1
Is he better than what we already have? He is apparently demanding top-of-the-rotation pay for middle-to-bottom of the rotation stuff. Man, I hope that Morrow develops some junk to mix with his heat.
77-
11 million a year is not “top of the rotation pay”
wait till santana signs his contract…that will be “top of the rotation pay”
God, I hope so, Marty. I’ve been wondering the same thing since this news first came out. Reports of years/$$ offered are often wrong, and I’d guess that the leaks often come from agents hoping to stir up competition among teams with whom they’re negotiating.
Wouldn’t it be funny (and sort of cool) if the Royals end up with 4 years of Silva, and the M’s sign Josh Towers for a 1-year $3.5M deal? Whatever they do, let’s pray for 1-year stopgaps. The Carlos Silvas of the world (and usually, something quite a bit better) come available every year.
this just put on the CBSsportsline rumor page:
“The Seattle Times speculates the newest pitching target for the Mariners is Carlos Silva who was said to be holed up with his agent pondering a four-year offer. Silva did not answer a call placed to his cellphone. His agent declined to confirm or deny that his client had received a $44 million offer to join the Mariners.”
Ah yes, what you are all missing is maybe, just maybe Bill Bavasi is actually using his head for the first time in his career. What I am sure not all of you know is the Carlos Silva and Johan Santana are very good friends and maybe Bill is using this Silva signing as a lure to get Johan to Seattle. A nice package of Santana and Rincon for Jones, Clement, Morrow and Reed would be quite interesting for both parties.
# 74. I agree this is a terrible signing, there were better options. LL floated Josh Towers as the same type of pitcher for a lot less money and contract commitment.
And yes Safeco isn’t a perfect fit, but it still represses runs. I may be wrong, but I think the twins stadium is a hitter’s park. Could be wrong.
Dave, all I’m saying is–let’s give the Mariners the benefit of the doubt until we see how Silva performs. I heard a lot of negativity about Jose Guillen last year and he had a pretty good year. I would also like to propose a trade. Brandon Morrow, Rob Johnson, Jose Lopez and Wladimir Balentien to Baltimore for Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts. We get the pitcher we want. We also get a 2nd baseman who can do more. Baltimore gets a pitching prospect in return, a catcher and another outfileder. They also have Lopez who might do better with a fresh start. What do you think? This doesn’t cost us Adam Jones.
Nah. Jose wasn’t viewed negatively. It was actually considered a decent signing. Dave was hoping for him to be used as a super sub fourth OF. But then they traded Doyle. But the difference was if Jose failed, it was a one year deal, not four.
Re: #3
This is good stuff….at least outside Casey Kotchman and Garrett Anderson, the Angels don’t offer much in terms of lefty power bats
Matthews Jr hit 5 of his 18 HR against RHP batting lefty. Morales hits better as a lefty as well. There is more LH power in that lineup than just Anderson and Kotchman (the latter of whom hit poorly at Safeco).
BTW, I saw Hickey’s story in the P-I about Silva supposedly benefiting from pitching on grass, but his stats for 2007 show better results on turf instead. Batters hit .310 off him on grass, but only .268 on turf.He gave up essentially an identical number of hits and extra-base hits on grass and turf, but with 3/4 the number of PA on grass. It would seem that there might have been more hits through the infield on grass than Hickey realized.
Error–should have read:
Matthews Jr hit 15 of his 18 HR…
Here’s a Silva comp, just for fun.
Silva = Swift with better command?
through age 28:
Carlos Silva
55-46 in 259g (52% starts) 4.31 ERA
10.7 h/9 1.6 b/9 3.8 k/9
Bill Swift
29-38 in 178g (52% starts) 4.32 ERA
10.1 h/9 3.0 b/9 3.3 k/9