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Mariners Close to Signing Carlos Silva
Dave · December 18, 2007 at 11:24 am · Filed Under Mariners
Per Ken Rosenthal, and confirming what I had heard earlier this morning, the M’s and Carlos Silva are not far from a four year agreement that would bring the strike-throwing, contact specialist to Seattle.
Yep - Carlos Silva, 4 years, $44 million. This organization never learns.
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153 Responses to “Mariners Close to Signing Carlos Silva”
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I really wish we could post images here. I’d post this one (SFW, likely, unless you’re in China).
Yay, we get a slightly better Ryan Franklin for four guaranteed years!
Oh, well.
No effing way. Maybe I should pick a new team to cheer for. Unreal. I guess we can only hope someone dumber than Bavasi swoops in a “steals” him away.
This is especially awful given that it appears we were bidding against ourselves only.
Looking for a little silver lining here, Is this better or worse than signing Koruda to a 4 year deal?
Hopefully Seattle’s geographical location compels Silva to have 2nd thoughts. Other people take less to go elsewhere, here’s to hoping it happens again.
I guess it’s obvious at this point that they were just going to throw $40M at any pitcher with arms and legs this offseason. It’s so hard to swallow this kind of thing.
I’m so tired of the Hot Stove season year after year. I’m learning more and more to just root for the team they field once the season begins, because it’s heartbreaking to watch the decisions, time and again.
At least Safeco and our defense should make him relatively effective…….
Our defense sucks
#10: I guess I was thinking longterm (i.e. when we have Adam Jones, Ichiro, and someone other than Ibanez in LF)
I’d rather them spend the coin on Colon or Lohse…four years is a terrible idea…
Well, that was predictable. Good ol’ Mariners management.
Number of games until the Jeff Weaver comparisons start…?
Well, at least it’s only money. The farm’s still intact. Payroll flexibility…. not so much. Of course, they still might get rid of Sexson.
4 YEARS??? Ugh. This almost makes Gil Meche’s contract look palatable.
So- 2012? See ya then?
Hope they check the growth rings on Carlos during his physical. It’d be a shame if it turns out he’s, like, 31 instead of 28. BTW, Silva is a Type B, right? We’re not giving up a draft pick for this guy, are we?
Wow.
Well, I hope Yuniesky figures out whatever it was that’s been keeping him from being an elite IF defender.
I just… 4 years? Really?
14-
just wait until tomorrow when you read about jones and his crew being dealt for bedard…
FREE CHRIS LARSON!
Hahaha, wow.
Mr. Bavasi, you never cease to amaze me.
I’m jumping ship.
Let’s go, Tampa Bay!
18-Maybe they’ll sign Lohse next, and we can have a rotation of 4 guys who will go 10-10 with 5.00 eras, and a #1 starter who resembles the other 4 guys on most occasions (with occasional flashes of brilliance).
Maybe this is some master plan to convince Santana Seattle’s OK. This is predicated on Santana and Silva being friends I guess. If they’re going to give away the farm, I’d prefer they do it to get Santana, rather than Bedard.
The Nightmare Scenario is underway.
Yes, they will follow this up with Jones/Morrow/ plus Sherrill and/or Jeff C. for Bedard for two years . . .
Once again agents and GMs know how desperate Bavasi is…
I’m trying to be optimistic that he can always be traded. We won’t lose anything (but money) to get him, at least, and maybe we can get something in trade when Tillman/Butler/Aumont (choose one) is ready to push him out of his spot.
Right?…. Please?
I don’t trust Rosenthal for a second, but I would like to continue piling onto the negative Silva comments here. What a terrible potential signing. Hope to hear that Kris Benson is coming on board, too.
You have GOT to be kidding me. How many times have we seen Bavasi miss out on his primary target only to follow up his whiff with a totally excreable signing/acquisition? I’d rather have them do absolutely nothing than do this.
this on CBSsportsline.com rumor link…
“The Royals have offered Twins free-agent starter Carlos Silva $30 million for three years, as reported by the St. Paul Pioneer Press.”
hopefully the royals do us a solid and “steal” him away…
at least they aren’t stupid enough to give him a fourth year…
Seriously, how good is he gonna be for us? The one lineup of AL hitters I remember him consistently dominating is ours, and now he probably won’t even get to face it.
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i agree…i’d rather have them run baek and any other AAA guy out there for our #4 and #5 spots than sign silva…
i blame this all on my mother…she just had to live in washington…
sigh.
Methinks that’s a result of the year-to-year thing that Lincoln and Armstrong laid down. Law of unintended consequences comes down to bite the team in the butt….
I hate this f-ing team.
Does Bavasi not read anything related to baseball? I mean, you can’t read a single damn baseball hot-stove article without an obligatory mention of Silva being a free agent land-mine. Every Tom, Dick and Harry knows he is a bust waiting to happen. A sink-hole.
I swear, Bavasi is a GD idiot!
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exactly…if bavasi wasn’t worried about winning “right now” he’s look more at developing for the future without the risk of getting fired…instead, we’ll have a team that every year flirts with being .500 and never has a chance at winning the whole thing…we need a new owner…
What does he say to himself when he reads that Silva is going to be grossly overpaid this off season? He must have seen the articles. They are everywhere.
Does he say, “Ha, I am smarter than all of them!” How could he think that? His track record is a joke — not even he could think he was smart.
Or does he just not read?
Silver Lining dept:
Well, if it keeps Bavasi from nuking the farm (in a futile attempt to save his job at-all-costs - what’s good for the longterm health of the franchise be damned) for a TOR pitcher who won’t be enough to transform us into legitimate contenders (pipe dreams notwithstanding), it may prove to be money well spent (even though it’s a terrible idea in and of itself). Fate’s version of protection money.
Which is not to say I underestimate the ability of Bavasi to handcuff the franchise financially AND mortgage the future in a fools gold errand, all at the same time. In fact, I fear this will prove to be the worst off-season in Mariner history. I’m just grasping at straws while there’s still the illusion of hope (however faint).
[no]
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he probably reads the lists of available players, sees that silva is close to the top of the list, and thinks that’s the guy to go after…
silva and lohse are at the top of every free-agent pitcher list, along with colon, so he probably feels justified…
even though every one of those lists says how BAD the crop is this year…
what a wast of money…and future roster flexibility…
The D-Backs are fun to watch. I think they’re my new team. Chris B. Young 4 MVP!
2. How do you say, “I think I made good pitches. I’m not getting any dang run support!” in Spanish?
Horrible deal if it gets done. Horrible. Silva’s only ability is to minimize free passes and minimize pitches thrown. Those are not $11 million per year skills.
I hope some team that’s even dumber offers even more. Godspeed, Wayne Krivsky….
This is a dumb move = okay
Bavasi is a moron = not okay
The namecalling’s getting a little excessive.
Here’s a pretty brief and shallow comparison.
Kuroda Cost: 12mil/year (3 years)
Silva cost: 11mil/year (4 years, possibly)
Kuroda Age: 33
Silva Age: 28
Kuroda 2007: 12-8, 3.56ERA, 179IP
Silva 2007: 13-14, 4.12, 202IP
So based upon the above stats, i’d rather take kuroda, but one thing that i don’t think has been mentioned is the yen to dollar factor, not money, but diamonds. How much drop off can you expect in a player’s stats from Japan to American? I’m not an actuary, so i’ll leave the large samplings to others, however, when looking at the ERA of Dice-K, it makes me wonder if the Dodgers didn’t help out the M’s once again (ala Schmidt).
Matsuzaka 2006 (Japan): 17-?, 2.13, 200K
Matsuzaka 2007 (RedSox): 15-12, 4.40, 201K 204IP
In the finally tally, i’m not sure silva is a dropoff from kuroday atleast for 2008, 2009 and beyond, who knows.
I’m sure no one is going to agree with me, but I actually don’t hate this move. If you look at Silva’s last 4 seasons, he’s had 3 pretty good ones (FIP between 4.17-4.44) with what looks like a reasonably repeatable skill set (extremely low walks, decently high GB%, not getting killed by HR’s) and one bad one.
Washburn, Batista, and Silva will eat innings and put up decent numbers. If Morrow comes along quickly, that’s not a bad back of the rotation to pair with Morrow and Felix.
Just trying to look on the bright side, folks.
There are many good reasons to loathe this move, obviously.
#9 - Safeco isn’t a better enviroment for pitchers than the Metrodome - at least not in 2007.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=hitsFactor&season=2007
Honestly, does Silva make this team any closer to the Angels?
Don’t use Wins and ERA to evaluate pitchers. Don’t use ESPN’s park factors for anything.
Bill Bavasi is not a moron. He is a bright man who wants to win, but is tragically blinded by his singleminded pursuit of cake. The fact that he wants to have it and eat it, too, while an understandable pursuit in theory, is negated by the cold reality that the cake is, in fact, a lie.
Let me also go on record as saying that i hope bavasi signs colon, lohse or clement to one or 2 year deal, then all this bedard/santana talk will cease and we’ll keep jones and morrow. That, i could support.
#2 and #3 on similar pitchers list to Carlos Silva from baseball-reference.com?
Scott Bankhead
Ramiro Mendoza
maybe the M’s are just trying to bring back the old days . . .
Does this ensure that Morrow will be in the minors this season?
Dave, do we have to buy your book to discover exactly how we do evaluate pitchers? I agree with wins, but i would appreciate being enlightened as to why ERA is not atleast one of the factors of a pitcher evaulation. Certainly i will not say it is the only factor, but a factor nontheless.
Yeah I’m pretty sure I’m not going to pay to see any Ms games this year. v.v
I don’t care how badly we need pitching, if Silvia is rumored at 4-$44, now is the time to trade Washburn.
48
Check out the left hand column under “Features”: “Evaluating Pitcher Talent”.
So working with the theory that this is a done deal; how exactly does this help us, and or hurt us? I think it’s a given that Silva is a contact pitcher that seems to produce decent ground balls; so his ERA and WHIP are probably going to come significantly from our infield. I have faith in Beltre, but the double mint twins make me worry from time to time, and Sexson.. god. Silva’s got to be better than Weaver and Ramirez, but this doesn’t seem like a really good move, more of an addition by subtracting them.
Is there any silver lining in this trade, something that perhaps we (average joe fan) are missing that Bavasi sees?
Let’s pray for Rosenthal to be wrong… Hold me…
43 / Salty Dog,
I like your attitude. I’m not sure we should call Washburn an innings eater, though, since he has a 90-pitch limit of effectiveness that he typically reaches in the fifth or sixth inning. Unfortunately, McLaren doesn’t seem to realize this, so Washburn did pitch nearly 200 innings (193). So perhaps I should say that he SHOULDN’T be an innings eater, not that he isn’t.
40
How can you say that Bavasi isn’t a moron? I am confused.
Honestly I don’t see why everyone seems so frightened by the prospect of signing Silva. Was everyone so frightened by the idea of the Mariners throwing similar money at Kuroda? Silva and Kuroda are essentially the same player - control specialists who put the ball in play. However, Silva actually has some MLB experience to back up the money and he’s also significantly younger and entering his prime. I would take 4 years and $44 million for Silva over Kuroda any day and I’m not opposed to this at all.
Yes, I would prefer the Mariners to go out and get a Tampa Bay starter or sign Colon instead, but you know what, we already know this organization’s philosophy.
However, I would see this a problem if the Mariners have plans for Silva being anything higher than a #3. Compliment this move with a trade for Bedard or a top starter and we’ve got ourselves the best rotation in the division. This shouldn’t frighten anyone. This is loads better than the Washburn and Batista signings, and potentially the Kuroda one.
Twins fan here — I think you all are overdoing it a bit on the Silva hate. Yes, his 2005 was horrendous, but beyond that he’s a solid back-end starter. That don’t come cheap.
Course, I’ll leave it to you M’s fans to hate on the financial aspects of the deal since I have no idea what kind of dollars you’re working with and where else you need to spend ‘em.
Look on the bright side, Mariners’ fans. At least your team isn’t about to sign KYLE LOHSE to a 4-year, $44 million contract.
w/r/t Bavasi is or isn’t a moron: if you want to say he’s incompetent at his job, that’s part of the discussion. If you want to say he’s a moron, or smells, or whatever, that’s not okay.
52. Silva is a back of the rotaion starter. He only deserves $11 million as a total. This deal will just be Washburn 2.0.
Lackey, Escobar, Weaver, Garland, Saunders(?) > Bedard, Felix, Silva, Batista, Washburn. IMO.
59. No. Lackey, Escobar, Weaver, Garland, Saunders/Santana = Bedard, Felix, Silva, Batista, Washburn.
find me a ‘back of the rotation’ free agent getting $11M over 3-4 years.
Bavasi- Your lack of respect from other GM’s and players’ agents is killing this team.
….and then your thinking about doing this. 4 years is stupid.
Oakland was interested in Asdrubal Cabrera in a prospective Haren deal. Soriano would have been a good trading chip too this off-season. Those two might have got us either Santana, Bedard or Haren.
Instead, 1/2 season of E. Perez and garbage of a season from HoRam. Plus 44 mil for Silva. Really, great management.
Felix, Washburn, Batista, Silva and HoRam. Nice rotation, I’m soooo excited.
61. I never said there was. But that’s what the kind of starter he is deserves.
The problem with a pitcher that puts the ball in play, is that we have a pretty terrible defense, with Sexson at first, Raul at LF, and possibly Lopez at 2nd. Oh Boy.
48
Check out the left hand column under “Features”: “Evaluating Pitcher Talent”.
Thanks for the link, good reading. Its also helpful to have thehardballtimes as a resource. Yet, i remain unconvinced that ERA is an irrelevant factor. Simply, i was trying to start a conversation on what 55 agreed with, why are we so upset over Silva when we seemed to be relatively excited about Kuroda? I think ERA can get that conversation started, even if it doesn’t end it.
ERA is useless.
hey, KOMO’s hot stove show is on tonight. Nothing like trying to talk up losing one pitcher and signing another….
It’s part of Bavasi’s master plan to lock up all of the mediocre ground ball pitchers.
65. We are more upset about Silva because: 1. More money 2. Four years.
It’s been a long time since I’ve been excited about anything the Mariners have done. sigh.
What will make this team any different from last year?
70. We’d be slightly better. Silva > Weaver and Morrow/RRS/Dickey > HoRam. But not much.
One thing I’m curious about is who the Mariners have scouting these guys they sign/trade for like Washburn, HoRam, Batista, Weaver and now Silva. It’s becomming obvious that the M’s don’t put a premium on power pitchers. I assume Bavasi is getting positive reviews from his people in the field before making these moves, but you have to wonder what they’re saying. From everything I hear, decisions like these are made by consensus and include everyone from scouts to McLaren and the coaching staff to the guys who negotiate contracts with players’ agents. Though obviously Bavasi has the last word, it seems to me the system for making decisions (presumably mandated or at least tolerated by Lincoln and Armstrong)results in conservative (dare I say mediocre)choices with little upside. Too bad Paul Byrd isn’t available. It’s depressing to think that things may never change until the club is sold to more enlightened owners…..
I love it! I realize we’re here to grouse about everything terrible that happens over at Safeco Field, but who should we have gone after with this cash? Lohse? Does he make you feel better about life? Freddy? Uhhh… Prior, Wells, BigBart/Krusty the Clown?
Hopefully we can get Bedard without trading Jones/Morrow/Clement/Balentein and the Moose, but Silva is the best of what’s out there on the open market… So what if we think Silva is worth a total of $11mil.? According to the market, he’s an $11mil. dollar a year guy. Sad, but true… To say the deal will be Washburn all over again is laughable. Two totally different guys. If Silva fails, it will be for very different reasons. Look closely at his stats, maybe you get ‘05 Silva. 188 inn. 9 walks, 0 wild pitches, 3.44 ERA. Are you kidding? Sick. Even last year wasn’t terrible.
Answer honestly, would you be happier with Bavasi if he did nothing or if he signed Silva to 4 years $44mil.? I’d rather see those guys give it a shot and hope for another Guillen-like lotto victory.
ERA is dependent on defense, park, and luck.
#65, xFIP is a much more meaningful conversation stat.
I guess I see this signing as better than the Washburn signing. Silva’s had a better FIP than Washburn three of the last four years (by half of a run last year), and his FIP would seem to make him essentially a league average starter. And considering the changes in revenue over the past four years, Silva’s going to be making less money than Washburn did, relatively speaking.
Silva also pitched better than Batista last year, and while he’s getting more money and more years than Batista, he’s also significantly younger. I’d say this is arguably as good as the Batista contract.
I understand wanting to acquire pitching talent differently, but this seems vaguely reasonable to me. Silva had the 22nd best FIP in the AL last year, in what seems like a reasonably repeatable season for him. “Pitch-to-contact” may not be a terribly rare skill set, but it’s also clear that not all pitch-to-contact guys have had as much success as Silva has.
Hey, Ryan Franklin had a 3.57 ERA in 2003 as a starter. His FIP was 5.34. The next two years his ERA was 4.90 and 5.10.
The sky is falling, the sky is falling.
But then again, when isn’t it here?
did anyone seriously expect anything else? Bavasi was determined to hold on to his top spects and under immense pressure to bring in a top pitcher. I’m not saying Silva’s a great pitcher, but he’s perceived as one. Could have been worse.
I am setting the bar low, and I hope it does not have to be set even lower….we all speculated that the M’s would do something stupid…so the suprise factor should be absent.
Now, if signing Silva prevents Bavasi from making any other moronic move then the offseason will not be horrible….only mediocre.
Well, this certainly isn’t a good move, but it doesn’t seem that much worse than the Kuroda signing would have been, and its also considerably less risky. With Silva we know he wont be very good, but we also know he wont be atrocious which is a possibility with Kuroda. One more year is bad but at least he’s younger and a known quantity, there’s a decent chance he’ll still be the same in the last of those years.
Look on the bright side, we’ve seen worse deals the last few years.
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With respect to ERA—
ERA DOES tell you something. But it’s a blunt measuring instrument, as it measures things that can be chalked up to teammates and the park and ignores things that the pitcher contributes. Other measuring sticks are better–they’re better at excluding teammates’ contributions and including things that the pitcher controls. Wanna start with ERA, for a first pass? Fine, but you can do a better job elsewhere (and why not start with those).
If his marching orders are get a pitcher or else, it’s not the mark of a moron to sign Silva.
More importantly, if the site’s authors say don’t call Bavasi a moron (i.e., denigrate the actions, not the person), yes, you can quite easily not call him a moron.
To underscore what gwangung just said, it’s not neccessarily Bavasi’s fault we’re left with Silva, Lohse, et al…
As my close, personal friend and poet Ice-T once said: “Don’t hate the playa, hate the game”. Or, don’t dislike someone for their actions, consider instead the situation that causes it.
Why’s he gotta be a moron? Could you do better? Or, is that not the discussion here?
But, but, but, we already HAVE one Jarrod Washburn on the team already! What on Earth will we do with TWO of them?
We don’t need Silva or Lohse to improve the team. I’m thinking this should have been 3/24 or something like that, even in todays market. That’s if Silva wasn’t so overvalued.
This is at least as bad as Washburns contract.
That’s if it’s true, which I’m horribly afraid it is.
Why not just go down to Ryan Rowland-Smith or the other almost-ready-to-be-moderately-effective-major-league-pitchers and say, “We’d like to increase your salary ten-fold for the 2008 season.” That would be ~$5 million for one season.
It would be cheaper in 2008 than Silva, there would be less of a long-term commitment that Silva, the manager would be forced to pitch them every five days like he would with Silva, and the production (or lack thereof) would be likely be very similar.
What’s so sad is the media and casual fans will consider this a crown jewel, and be “surprised” by the way he pitches next season.
Losing is such a vicious cycle, because management acts differently than they would if they didn’t have the pressure to win (and save jobs) in the short term. And, free agents that want to play for a winner have less desire to play there, so you have to pay significantly more than other teams.
Chris Miller: “We don’t need Silva or Lohse to improve the team. I’m thinking this should have been 3/24 or something like that, even in todays market.”
So, you don’t believe Silva makes the team better? (Alternatives: Rowland-Smith/Morrow/Baek) Or, he doesn’t make you better for $11mil? Either one is fair-ish. My question would be, how should they better spend that cash?
And, I think Bavasi would love to get Silva for 3yrs/24mil, but he can’t be had for that.
#80— Not to pick on you, but I think you hit it on the head when you characterized this signing as “vaguely reasonable”. Vague reasonableness seems to be what this team is all about. And with Silva in the rotation we’ll probably be looking good for a second place finish in ‘08, which strikes me as vaguely reasonable too. Attendance and revenues will probably stay vaguely reasonable and the FO will not make any rash decisions, such as firing a manager who is liked by his players just because he thinks Rick White should pitch the most important innings of the year. And we may as well keep a mediocre GM around—after all, he will have finished 2nd two years in a row, which seems vaguely reasonable, doesn’t it? So what if we never win the World Series?
I don’t understand why some people come to a site they think is too negative, to make fun of how negative it is. If you don’t like it, don’t read it.
While I am disappointed at this potential signing, I am not horrified at its ramifications. HoRam for Soriano horrified me.
I am curious if Dave, DMZ, or other commenters think that the M’s had planned to pursue Silva via free agency if Kuroda landed elsewhere, or did they start their pursuit of him only after learning about Kuroda’s intent to join the Dodgers? Silva’s total dollar figure is a little more than the total that the M’s would have given Kuroda. I just wonder whether Silva was a Plan B or a panic move.
Signing Silva is not in itself a “horrible” move. If the salary reports are correct, we are overpaying for him. So it’s not a great deal or terrific signing. But getting a 28 year old league average pitcher for 4 years does not constitute a disaster. What matters is what they do next.
Do they focus on upgrading the defense to support this type of pitcher? Or do they do a dumb deal trading away prospects for another pitcher. A disaster is trading away Jones and Morrow for a “Frontline” starter.
What also matters are the details of the contract. If there is a no trade clause it makes it much worse.
gintzdog, do you have anything, anything beyond your personal baseball acumen, that would back up this statement about Silva vs RR-S/Morrow/Feierabend? “…and the production (or lack thereof) would be likely be very similar.” Hard to compare Silva’s numbers to those guys and not see Silva as an upgrade in ‘08… Based on facts alone.
whelp, this will make season 4 in a row that I don’t attend an M’s game . . .
Man, its hard to believe its been 6 years since we made the playoffs (though its easy to understand why).
The real question is with so many teams in the AL getting better and better at sabermetric evaluation, how much longer until we make the playoffs again? I don’t see us sniffing the WC for a LONG time and even taking the division isn’t looking to good. Once Beane gets his stadium and a decent cash flow . . .
Okay, new rule - if you haven’t read the Evaluating Pitcher Talent post, or if you still think ERA is a useful predictive tool, you’re going to be flogged with a wet noodle and then ignored.
Softy thinks Brandon Morrow should be starting instead of Silva.
Now THERE’S a candidate for the wet noodle.
When Armstrong and Lincoln are eased out of the front office (in that order, and not before).
Man, I hate to break it to you guys, but $11MM/yr is right in line with what everyone expected Silva to get. A 4-year deal may seem a little high, but the price tag in itself is nowhere near the ridiculous overpayment that it seems people think it is.
It’s a lot, yes, but starters are expensive no matter how you slice it.
Man, I hate to break it to you guys, but $11MM/yr is right in line with what everyone expected Silva to get.
Which has nothing to do with how much he’s actually worth.
I thought the ERA movement died out in the early 70’s.
Free agents, yes. Home grown or trade? No.
Home grown or trade? No.
Starters can be expensive in trades, too.
But we don’t have any homegrown that’s comparable, do we? As unremarkable as Silva may be, are we expecting equivalent performance from anyone we already have?
As for trades, getting top-flight pitching would require losing homegrown talent, and that just hurts us in the future. If this pitcher were the last piece to making us a playoff caliber team, I’d say go for it, but otherwise, hold on to the future assets for another year.
While I’m not a fan of Silva, I could probably live with 11 per over a year or two… the killer is the 3rd and 4th years. Sure, he might be an acceptable 3/4 starter, there’s no reason to sign a guy like that for a 4 year deal - guys like him are available every year.
i’d rather give up money to silva, lohse, colon, etc. even if they don’t “deserve” what they are making than trade away the kids for bedard and then still have to pay him money that he probably won’t deserve either…
i’d just rather go with AAA guys this year and plan for 2009…
just after I turned away from the accidental KJR Morrow comment, I picked up the earphones in time to hear a Baltimore reporter telling mlb.com that for Bedard the Os want 3-4 guys who are major league ready or darned close, so he thinks Jones & Morrow and 2 or 3 more players.
Three or four years isn’t terrible considering that Silva will be here from age 29 to 32 - his prime years. I’d rather have those three/four years that Kuroda’s unpredictable 33-36.
This deal is not that bad. Don’t blame the team, blame the market. Haven’t we all gotten a hold of the fact that Mariners aren’t going to play budget-ball like the A’s or Indians? As much as I’d like them to sign Colon or trade for a Rays starter, it’s unlikely to happen under this ownership and management.
Oh, yes, but there are enough savvy GMs out there that can get adequate pitching through trades without breaking the bank (money-wise or player wise). That brings down the average value.
Not applicable to the Mariners, of course….
Nah, I’ll still blame the team. Paying that for barely competent players still isn’t very smart.
It is an exaggeration to say that lot’s of savvy GM’s are making good trades for pitchers. What is happening is smart teams are developing their own talent. I don’t think there many examples over the last two years where the team acquiring a pitcher got a great deal.
I keep hearing references to Colon, but has ANY team shown interest in him yet? Do we even know how healthy he is or may be by ST?
I’m surprised at 11 million/year that we HAVE to give him four years rather than three.
That second comment was in reference to Silva, not the chili dog king I mentioned first.
” This deal is not that bad. Don’t blame the team, blame the market. ”
you blame the team…who says they have to sign anyone? if you are looking for a new car, and you go to a lot with a bunch of pieces of crap, are you going to buy one based on “the market?” no…you’ll save your money and look elsewhere…
this move stinks of desperation…just like a desparate person would buy a piece of junk car for a lot of money if the “market” dictated it…
save the money…go with AAA starters and wait for 2009…with or without Bavasi…
I had heard rumblings that Silva would look for a possible 5 year deal worth nearly 50 mil. He is 28, so the years seem appropriate to what he would want and require. I am not justifying the signing, which I am against, but it seems to fall in line with what other similar pitchers have received.
Hey - it sucks, but we don’t have zito for 100 years and we don’t have darren driefot. whatever, we have the Ms, which is bad enough.
I’ve grown up a mariners fan, like most of you. I am 27. I still watch. We’ve had some good seasons, but what have we known? What did we do before we had blogs? we watched it on TV and complained to our co-workers. but, we still watched. no way we can make bankhead references without that.
We won’t win, we just won’t. I’ve come to grips with it, about the same time that I realized that I would eventually die. It is just something we all eventually make peace with.
I sometimes think of it in terms of Sports Anfechtungen which, “is the (German) word that Luther used to describe the overwhelming times of spiritual trial, terror, despair, and religious crisis that he experienced throughout his life. ”
Seattle never will win. We’ll always have to play the Yankees or Indians or there’ll be a Michael Jordan or crap refs at the finals.
Don’t worry. We’re still gonna watch. Go Ms.
Vague reasonableness seems to be what this team is all about.
I disagree. There wasn’t anything reasonable to me about the Vidro or Ramirez moves last off-season. The Ichiro contract was a good deal for the team, though, going beyond reasonable in some fashion. Going back further, the Beltre deal was good and the Sexson deal was bad.
When Washburn was signed, I think it was fair to say that the Mariners had mis-evaluated him from a talent standpoint and there was a disconnect between what they thought they were going to be getting and what they were actually going to get. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case with Silva here.
Carlos Silva has had an xFIP of 4.68 over the last four years, and an ERA of 4.45. So to that extent, sure, he’s overvalued by two tenths of a run by ERA. The two years before Washburn came to Seattle he had an average xFIP of 5.04 and an average ERA of 3.92. So ERA was overstating Washburn’s value by more than a run per nine innings.
I think the Mariners’ mistake here is mainly in overvaluing free agents at large as compared to what can perhaps be had in a trade. That’s different than their mistake with Washburn where they not only overvalued free agents relative to trade targets, but also vastly overrated what Washburn could bring to the team. (Like they vastly overrated Horacio Ramirez’ abilities as a pitcher.) In terms of talent, I don’t think it’s so obvious that the Mariners have mis-evaluated what Silva can do, even if they happen to think that what he can do is more valuable than the alternatives.
Is Silva really “barely competent?” He had the fifth best control in the league (uBB/9), sandwiched between Josh Beckett and Joe Blanton. Plus his xFIP was right in line with Matt Cain and Chris Young - and you know the kind of success they had in ‘07.
Silva is worlds better than the bona fide bottom-of-the-order filler like Batista and Washburn.
When Washburn was signed, I think it was fair to say that the Mariners had mis-evaluated him from a talent standpoint and there was a disconnect between what they thought they were going to be getting and what they were actually going to get.
Ack, this should read:
When Washburn was signed, I think it was fair to say that the Mariners had mis-evaluated him from a standpoint, and that they overrated the value of free agents relative to trade targets.
The general sediment over the past couple weeks on USSM has been pretty negative. Is there anything at all to suggest this guy has a good four years here and is a solid #3. Anything at all? Is it too wrong to believe he wont amount to anything. It seems we’ve already wrote him off as a failure before he’s even been signed. I also believe that if someone was willing to take Washburn we should make that move? Do we believe there would be any takers? NL?
I need to echo the silver lining sentiment here. Not a great move, 4 years definitely seems at least 1 too many. But just possibly this takes a little heat off Bavasi to bring in a veteran pitcher that the organization values so much, and correspondingly makes him think a little harder about shipping AJ off for Bedard. Maybe he’ll just go after a Tampa pitcher now for the 5 spot or sign Colon and we can take a serious look at contending in 09. Granted Bavasi doesn’t have the best track record on roster decisions in general, so I’ll be holding my breath all the way to the trade deadline. But I think this slightly decreased the chances we sell the farm this year.
cebo04 wrote:
Now now now. Who’s throwing mud around now?
Ms_in_vancouver;
You forgot to mention that Chris Young and Matt Cain had BAD xfip’s last season. Cherry-picking names while ignoring the context of the stat makes for really lame arguments.
I like this deal! We got a shiny new defense to put behind him that gobbles up anything like Toronto to make average starters look good, right? We did that first, surely?? No?? So we still can’t even make an #1 guy like Felix look good?? Wow, like buying gas before you get a car.
Pete Livengood:
I’m hoping for progress and I am a bit disappointed with how the off season is being approached and I feel that with other people in place, we might have had more success this winter, but it is still early and I don’t think we need to be so down and out four months from spring training!
Isn’t FIP (and xFIP) really distorted for pitchers with both extremely low walk rates and extremely low K rates? I thought I had read that almost all pitching stats based on component skill have difficulty (aren’t predictive) with this kind of pitcher…
cebo, to now answer the question you posed (instead of ruthlessly poking fun at a misspelling), I don’t think it is unreasonable to think that Silva can be a decent performer in the #4 or #5 slot. I think it may be a stretch to think of him as anything higher-rotation than that. He’s probably a marginal improvement over what we had last year in that position.
The problem is, or rather the problems are (1) pitchers tend to break down, so signing anybody but top-shelf pitchers to more than 3 years at most tends toward foolishness; and (2)the reality that the M’s work within a budget, coupled with seriously overpaying for modest talent, means your future is being compromised. Whether or not you believe Carlos Silva can be a competent MLB pitcher and even a modest improvement over a bad 2007 rotation, that alone is good reason for gloominess.
Time for me to find a new team. I’m tired of this.
Young and Cain both overachieved. Yes, they are very different pitchers, but Silva could easily achieve a similar performance to them. The point is that has much more skills and potential than Washburn, Batista, Garland, Lohse, etc. He’s not some over-the-hill starter with a mediocre skill set. He’s actually one of the best at what he does.
I think the emphasis on strikeouts and power pitchers is exaggerated here. I, too, favor power pitchers and would love to see the M’s construct a rotation with that philosophy. However, just because Silva is a finesse pitcher doesn’t make him below-average. Few pitchers can pull off having a strikeout rate of 4 per nine innings, but with Silva’s control, he can.
If anything, this makes me want Ibanez out of the outfield even more.
The more I think about this, the less I hate it.Keeping this in perspective, of all the things he could have done (trading Green or Sherrill for Ramirez 2.0); this isn’t bad. Heck, this could almost be considered a GOOD move.
Personally, I don’t think he’s Washburn 2.0 – he posts significantly better GB% with a lot fewer walks. No, he doesn’t strike out as many, but with a good infield this could (hopefully) not be a very bad move.
We’re rooting for the M’s. Sometimes that’s all you can hope for.
But, but, but, we already HAVE one Jarrod Washburn on the team already! What on Earth will we do with TWO of them?
Maybe there’s some sort of award for reaching the pinnacle of mediocrity.
The fact that Bavasi and the rest of the FO are on a “win or go” status makes it so the M’s can’t sit still this off season and throw out one of our available arms for the 5th spot in the rotation. They have to do something. If Bavasi is given 95 mil to spend this year he has to spend it or it’s gone, he can’t carry over his savings to next year.
That being said, the reason he is in this position is because of the moves he made over the last several years. Remember when he stated that the team had to get younger and then he went right out and tried to trade Carlos Guillen for 137 year old Omar Visquel? All of his moves for the next couple years show this same type of pattern, which is to say he has no plan, or if he does, he doesn’t have the discipline to stick to it if something goes wrong.
Pete Livengood:
I totally agree with what you are saying but I’m just concerned that we’ve beaten this deal before it’s happened.
What misspellings?
This signing is going to look even worse after we get Bedard. Then we’re stuck with no farm system and a bunch of undumpable contracts to junk players like Carlos Silva. Seriously, why can’t we swallow our pride, admit we aren’t contending, and give Cha Baek a chance to put up Silva’s numbers? That’s not so unreasonable, and so much more feasible given the savings of $12 million a year… frustrating logic by the M’s brass, yet so consistent.
cebo, he’s just poking fun at your use of “sediment,” which means dirt and other crap at the bottom of a body of water. The word you’re looking for is sentiment.
MLS In Seattle has sold 10,000 pre-sale season tickets
according to fox.com the Ms made an official offer of 4 years, 44 million…it’s about to happen…
Thank you! Totally missed that. I’m so nervous that this is really going to happen!
dammit, dammit, dammit. Who else thinks that this is indeed a precursor to a “gut the farm for Bedard” move? I don’t trust Bavasi to do anything BUT make poor decisions anymore . . .
cebo04 wrote:
As noted, “sediment” rather than “sentiment.” Therefore, I couldn’t resist accusing you of slinging “mud” when you accused people of being too negative. Sorry . . . sort of. No offense intended, I was just amusing myself mostly.
I don’t see us sniffing the WC for a LONG time
I wouldn’t want to be sniffing the WC for a long time either.
You guys that are hating the prospect of this deal better hope the Mariner’s start developing their own starting pitchers. That’s the only way to build a decent rotation without paying through the nose for either free agents or via trades. Until then, we’re going to keep seeing more of this.
Unless you have a payroll of about $120 million, it makes no sense to commit $11 million a year for 4 years to a slightly above average starter. Whatever would you pay for Santana, if you give Silva $11 million?
Now, if money is no object, maybe this deal makes sense . . .
If we lose Adam Jones and others for Bedard, I suggest we gather together a large group of people with signs calling for the head of Bavasi and Armstrong. They need to go. They are destroying our future. What’s next, getting rid of Triunfel. Even if we got Bedard, our offense would no longer be good enough.
146 (nathaniel),
Been following the Mariners long? I think you’ll find that a lot of the better prospects are pitchers: Tillman (4 star), Ramirez and Aumont (3 star), Rohrbaugh and Butler all made Baseball Prospectus’ top 11 prospects for the Mariners. Plus Morrow’s looking like decent starter material for ‘09, if they don’t rush him in this year. I don’t know what the success rate is pitching prospects, but if only 2 of the 5 from the BP list pan out in the next two or three years, I’d say that’s pretty good. So, I for one am optimistic about where we could be in 2010.
135: Interesting point. If you haven’t yet, check out Baseball Ref’s career stats on Tommy John and Randy Jones from back in the 70’s & 80’s — each had a few BB/K-per-9 seasons which were mind-boggling.
Definitely NOT saying that Silva is CY/HOF material…however, he might not wind up being a total disaster, either.
Remember when he stated that the team had to get younger and then he went right out and tried to trade Carlos Guillen for 137 year old Omar Visquel?
Thank goodness that deal fell through and he got a young guy like Ramon Santiago instead. A great trade, in hindsight, since Santiago is now a better ss than Guillen–Carlos being relegated to 1B nowdays, and it’s not like the Mariners need a 1Bperson . . .
152: Yes…but you know, of course, that a DWI absolutely CANNOT be forgiven if you’re a native of Venezuela.
If you’re a native of Clark County, however, it’s apparently a different story…