A Paradox
Dave · December 20, 2007 at 11:39 pm · Filed Under Mariners
So, while flying across the country today reading the 2008 Hardball Times Annual (which will get a post of its own soon), a thought hit me; the Mariners are signing Carlos Silva because they believe that his combination of no walks, no strikeouts, and some groundballs will lead to him not giving up many runs.
At the exact same time, the Mariners have built an offense that doesn’t walk, doesn’t strike out, and hits a lot of groundballs, believing that having a bunch of guys with that skillset will lead to the team scoring a lot of runs.
I wonder if they’ve even noticed that, much less tried to reconcile those two conflicting beliefs.
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Wow. I think those conflicting philosophies weren’t notice by most of us. Suffice to say, the M’s front office wouldn’t have figured it out in a million years.
You just blew my effing mind!
What’s astonishing to me is that while in most businesses, the most efficient models rapidly become ubiquitous as those that don’t initially adopt them fall to the bottom and are replaced…yet in baseball change like this takes much much longer. Someday I believe the reliance upon statistical analysis in player evaluation that is bringing teams like the A’s and Indians success will become the common wisdom. About fifteen years later, the M’s will adopt it. I hope to live so long.
Holy cognitive dissonance, Batman!
I felt a great disturbance in the Marinersphere, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened.
I noticed this a long time ago and it drove me nuts. I commented awhile ago on LL about that, and our illustrious DH:
[On Vidro]
None of this stuff is his fault– Its Bavasi’s as this was exactly the player he went out an traded for. What boggles my mind is Bavasi thought that we should get GB pitchers for our hard-to-hit-in park for an advantage. Using that logic, how is it advantageous to have a massively GB DH? I just don’t get it.
One would almost think there is someone in the FO saying, “Carlos Silva pitched a really good game against us once. We couldn’t do anything against him that night. He’s a free agent. Let’s have Bill go get him.”
If Bavasi ever attends another feed, I’d love to see him get asked this question.
In fact, I’d love to know what philosophy is guiding his decisions — assuming there is one. What kind of team is he trying to build? At least knowing that would give us a way to evaluate his decisions on his terms, however much we might disagree (with the decisions and/or the philosophy).
[ot]
Wow, considering I just finished philosophy of logic class, that makes a lot of sense how that works out. Its a contradiction in logic. Ironically, I think all the groundballs lead to more GIDPs than runs last year. One that comes in mind is the back to back games where Raul GIDPed both times and ended the games in Toronto.
I guess I have my precept to meditate on for the year. I’m sure I’ll give up and start wondering about the meaning of life before I solve this one.
Thanks, Bill.
#7
What on God’s green earth would ever lead you to believe that Silly Billy would ever consider coming to another feed after the honest evaluation that he has gotten here lately. If Bavasi shows at another feed, I will be shocked. By this point he has to know, that the USSM fan base is far more educated about this team than he is, thanks to Dave, Derek, and Jason. Keep up the great work guys, someday you’ll be calling the shots around this team…hey a guy can dream can’t he!
#3:
IMHO – the reason the change occurs slowly is because each team is a quasi-monopoly in it’s territory. If a group of people has a better idea of how to build an MLB roster, they can’t set up a team to compete with the Mariners and Seattle and prove their mettle. Were that possible, teams operating on obsolete principles would fall by the wayside quickly, as they do in any business with competition.
The same resistance to change occurs in any setting in which there are significant barriers to entry and the industry operates as a monopoly, oligopoly, or cartel.
This was, by far, one of the most hilarious epiphanies I’ve read in quite some time.
I’d say they have not tried to realized the disconnect between those beliefs. And as proof for this, I offer McLaren’s comments during the winter meetings:
I have no idea why that was so funny when I read it but it was. I honestly think that the management plays MLB whatever year it is and makes up the roster that way and base possible production on that.
What if… C.. A.. T.. really… spelled… DOG!
That is hilarious…or sad…I can’t decide.
I’m pretty sure that Bavasi uses the most traditional of measures, when he uses them at all, as part of the evaluation of players. Batting average, ERA. If it wasn’t used before 1960, then he doesn’t use it.
Which, of course, is why everything he does is so frustrating to all of us.
Although I believe he is aware of the platoon effect on hitters, although his managers seem to not be.
This is really not a different concept than their approach to pinch hitting. The Ms will change pitchers 2 or 3 times in an inning to get the desired R-R or L-L matchup, but rarely pinch hit to avoid such a matchup. I’m not sure if it’s infuriating or pathetic. Pathetically infuriating, I guess.
So we don’t want a pitcher that that keeps the balls in the park. Maybe you guys woke Bill up and he is looking to make some changes…hmmmmm…….NAAAAAA. Just another day in the buy-em-now see how they work together later theory. If the Mariners could only do something about the RISP problem, maybe Silva will work out, maybe he won’t. We need contact, we need gaps, we need down the line hits, we need Richie to stop swinging at the third strike down and away.
It’s like the people who say that drawing walks isn’t important, and then turn around and say that worst thing a pitcher can do is walk a guy.
Another paradox? Morrow can’t learn anything about being a starting pitcher at AAA, but he can learn to be a starting pitcher by being ‘at the end of the bullpen’.
Like many others I noticed this conflict in reasoning some time ago also. What really makes it so sad is that it exposes to the rest of the league how clueless, and easy to prey on, our organization is.
I think the answer to that is, Nah.
the fact that he has done so after each previous year’s barracking?
And then there is this gem from Bavasi today in the PI:
“He (Morrow) is highly, highly unlikely to leave,” Bavasi said. “I’m not saying he couldn’t be traded, but it’s unlikely.”
…
If we add a starter, then he pitches in the bullpen,” Bavasi said. “If we don’t, then either Brandon or Horacio Ramirez would be the fifth starter. And if it’s Ramirez, Morrow would be at the end of the bullpen.
…
He’s highly, highly unlikely to start in Triple-A,” Bavasi said. “We don’t feel like that’s going to help us.”
I’m floored by this. Absolutely floored. They are going to ruin Morrow’s career before it starts.
I need to stop believing that anyone is this incompetent…
From the same article, it appears they plan on starting Jones in RF.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/344460_morrow21.html
Awesome. I hate being a Mariners fan.
We’ve quips and quibbles heard in flocks,
But none to beat that paradox!
A paradox, A paradox…
That most ingenious paradox!
How quaint the ways of Paradox!
At common sense she gaily mocks!
Kirby Arnold has some other quotes from the presser
i’m glad that the article states that Jones will be in the outfield next year, but the crap about morrow is just terrible…if they want him to be a starter eventually, why the hell would they put him back in the pen rather than tacoma…seriously idiotic…
Paraduxx is pretty splendid wine.
I could use a bottle or two right about now…
And before the contrarians jerk their knee..think about this. You want Morrow to be a starter, right? A seven-innings plus starter, right? Who can get through a line up three times, right?
What’s a better way to do that? Sitting in the bullpen? Or by going seven innings plus in Tacoma?
So, while flying across the country today reading the 2008 Hardball Times Annual (which will get a post of its own soon), a thought hit me; the Mariners are signing Carlos Silva because they believe that his combination of no walks, no strikeouts, and some groundballs will lead to him not giving up many runs.
It’s funny that you should notice that when Silva is coming your way, since that’s essentially the same set of philosophies the Twins have espoused for the last few years. Somehow it’s a good idea for the hitters to put the ball in play and “make things happen” and it’s a good idea for the pitchers to let the other team’s hitters put the ball in play and “use their defense.”
I think the organization has decided that Morrow is a reliever, not a starter.
Which is a very stupid decision on their part, but it’s still the only real context in which their moves make sense.
An alternative view – since Bavasi appears to be talking about Morrow in long rather than short relief – could be that they’re taking the Earl Weaver approach of breaking young starters in via the bullpen. But without at least some experience actually starting in the minors, that doesn’t particularly make sense either.
i wish they’d sell high on morrow and package him for bedard…as long as the package DOES NOT include Jones…i’d be cool with Wlad, Morrow, Sherril, Clement heading to baltimore…hell, throw in Sexson, lopez and some cash too and send back roberts…
All so we can finish a little closer behind Anaheim next year, or get REALLY lucky and get pounded by the Yankees, Red Sox or Indians? Gaaah. This is the problem with keeping Bavasi…selling a bright future for a dusky present so he might keep his job. We are Orioles West. We are last year’s Sonics.
6.
If only that logic rang true elsewhere. Josh Towers threw a good game against us, in Toronto, and can be grabbed on the cheap for 1-2 years I would imagine.
Regarding the stupidity of Bavasi’s Morrow statements: if he wasn’t still on the “hot seat,” perhaps he’d be more likely to do with Morrow what’s in the team’s best long-term interests, rather than using Morrow however he’ll most benefit the W/L record of the M’s THIS year. I put this squarely on Howard and Chuck.
37 – Bavasi is still to blame to the extent that he actually believes Morrow can help the team WIN NOW as a starter or #5 reliever….
a few more Bavasi quotes, this time from Drayer’s blog
#11: I bet you’re wrong. I bet that if Dave asked, Bavasi would speak again at a USS Mariner gathering.
Dave’s been absolutely consistent about this: He’s critical of most of Bavasi’s recent moves, disappointed in his overall performance and doesn’t think he’s the sort of leader that can create a winning roster.
But he’s also been consistent about this: Bavasi is also:
a) A hell of a nice guy; and
b) A hell of a nice guy who LOVES to talk baseball with people who love baseball.
If you went to the event at Cheney Stadium in August with Bavasi and about 30-40 of us, you know. We couldn’t shut the guy up. He was candid, illuminating and often shockingly hilarious. And utterly generous with his time.
It’s like DMZ says: It’s okay to say Bavasi has made some horrible decisions. It’s not okay to say Bavasi is a horrible human being.
Interesting para in Drayer’s blog (thanks to msb for linking it above)
This just illustrates the fact that their is no organizational philosophy or core belief that drives the M’s management team. Its amazing that such a high profile organization lacks one of the basic tenets of good management. Wether its a business, a charity, a baseball team, or any organization of people, the group has to have some core beliefs that drive its decision making. For whatever reason Bavasi has none. He just puts out one fire after the next with no reason for his decision other than “it seemed like the best alternative at the time.”
Maybe they like to play “Opposite Day” a lot. Like: “I want a running team so I will trade my fastest outfielder, Adam Jones, and keep my slowest outfielder”. Or: money is no object when signing a back of the rotation starter but prevents us from drafting top tier picks that could become top of the rotation starters.
In talking to several executives with other clubs the consensus with them was that he is still a huge injury threat.
Hmmm. The first thing I thought when I read this was “shouldn’t Bavasi be getting info like this from his own guys, scouts and analysts alike – not from a group of people that may also be competing for Colon’s services?”
I don’t actually know how Bavasi makes his personnel decisions, but if he stops at “ask other executives about Player X”, it explains a whole lot.
Personally, I think Bavasi is probably a pretty smart guy, he’s just operating as if he was still running a baseball team back in the 70s as opposed to today.
If he ever updates his thinking to keep up with teams like Boston, Oakland, Tampa Bay, etc, I think he’ll be a pretty formidable GM to deal with.
I’m just not certain it’s ever going to happen.
pdb — that quote is from Shannon Drayer. She’s the one who was talking to several executives with other clubs. She’s a journalist, that’s what she does. There isn’t a single word spoken by Bavasi anywhere in that quote I posted. In fact, the only indication of what he might think of Colon is in the preceding para:
Sorry if I confused you, but I kind of assumed people would go read the whole blog.
(I wonder when Bavasi thinks this magical transformation of Morrow from one-pitch 3-out reliever into starter is going to happen? Oh, right, as soon as Magic Mel does whatever it is he does)
that quote is from Shannon Drayer.
Oops. My bad.
Ahh, knowledge (and Wikipedia).
There I was, sitting in Ballard, drinking a Hale’s Wee Heavy, eating a Beecher’s cheddar sandwich on homemade bread (how local can food get?) and listening to Jim Fleming on NPR talking about early Christianity, when I decided to do a search for “Gnosticism”. That took me to Wikipedia where I found this perfectly lovely word that describes exactly the phenomenon that Dave outlines above – Syncretism: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syncretism
Apparently Bill Bavasi is the high priest of some syncretistic sect in baseball. Who knew.
At least with Bill Bavasi’s logic, the Mariners should be .500 …….
In more proof we’ve entered bizarro world, somebody traded a hitter to the Rangers and got back pitching. The got pitchers. From the Rangers.
Everyone keeps saying Bavasi is just looking at for his own neck, because he is always on the hot seat. If that was the case shouldn’t the Mariners just sign him to an extension, so he does whats best for the Mariners. And then when he fails just fire him.