Prediction contest: Ibanez’s new contract
DMZ · December 31, 2007 at 1:31 pm · Filed Under Mariners
I joked that Raul’s comments to the Seattle Times for that Monahan refutation earned him his next deal — and maybe it did! His contract is dangerously close to coming to an end after this season, and the team is probably already talking to him about returning.
So — leave a comment with your guess. Include:
1. Years
2. Contract value (salary only)
3. Date the extension will be officially announced by the Mariners (press release or press conference, either way)
Last one was a 2y, $11m contract announced in March of 06, the last year of his previous deal.
Winner gets a lovely prize, all three answers required to be eligible.
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143 Responses to “Prediction contest: Ibanez’s new contract”
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2 Years/10.5 million/March 31
2 years and option for 3. 16Mil for 2, 10mil 3rd year. July 27th so they can ruin my birthday.
2 years/16 million/March 3
2 years, 18 mil, August 19th
I predict the Seattle Mariners will not offer Raul Ibanez a contract extension in the likely event that he maintains his current Type A status in the Elias rankings.
Over the past four seasons, Ibanez has performed beyond expectations while being a model citizen on and off the field. Ibanez deserves to be rewarded with a good contract.
However, the Seattle Mariners should let another team offer that fat contract.
The Mariners have no guarantee that Ibanez, who turns 36 in June, will continue to perform at his recent levels.
Ibanez currently ranks ninth among the 23 American League outfielders, firstbasemen and designated hitters with the Type A status in the Elias rankings.
If Ibanez maintains the Type A status at the end of the 2008 season, the Mariners can offer Ibanez arbitration without offering him a contract extension.
If Ibanez accepts arbitration, the Mariners can get him back for one year at a decent price.
If Ibanez declines arbitration and signs with another club, the Mariners should receive a first-round and sandwich draft pick as compensation.
Those two high draft picks could be worth more than Raul Ibanez at ages 37 and 38.
The old adage says it’s better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.
Seattle fans should always revere Ibanez, but from a purely business standpoint the Mariners might be better off by letting Ibanez walk.
I might change my mind if Ibanez loses his Type A status or if Adam Jones, Wladimir Balentien and other young outfielders fail to develop.
Sooo that’s an argument that no extension will be announced next season.
Ohh, this will be Bavasi’s greatest moment ;)…
2 years plus an option year
$14 million, with $6 million option year plus loys of incentives
February 24th, 2008
1. 2 Years
2. $13.6 million
3. March 18, 2008
Annnnd, placid gets the Most Likely to Become Steve Kelley Award…..
2/22 on 4/15
1. 2 years
2. 21 =$10 and $9 + $2 bonus, another $3 in incentive.
3. March 7th, (Ruining my birthday)
My tiebreaker pick is that placid is wrong.
Placid is wrong, but he’s right.
Now, if he could only write paragraphs of more than one sentence….
June 20th, 2008
$18 Million plus $4 million incentives
2 Years
plus option year
2 years
16 million
Valentine’s Day
3 years. $25 million. Februrary 28
3/19.5 6/29/08
going out on a limb here:
traded to NL contender (STL? LAD?) in late July for crappy minor leaguers. Extended by that team for 1 year, 8 million.
ooh a specific date: July 24th.
2 year 15 mil
August 15th
Southpaw, I hope you are wrong…that announcement on that day would totally ruin my birthday.
My guess…3 yrs, 22 mil, announced March 2
2 years: 2008, 8 mil and 2009 club option for 8.25 mil= 16.25 mil announced on Feb 4th.
2 years
1 option year that is mutual with some absurdly high buyout clause
$14m per year
Announced by March 22nd.
They want to make sure this isn’t a distraction going into the year. You do the math with the performances and payments to Silva, Washburn, Sexson, and Vidro and $14m/year looks like a bargain in their blurry, blood shot eyes.
1 year
7.5 million
April 2nd
2 years $11.5 million with a team option for a third at $6 million that will automatically vest with 400 plate appearances in 2008/2009 each.
Announced May 1.
OT news…[deleted, OT]
2 years
17.75 Million (including bonus, excluding buyouts)
Announced February 26
#12 – “I know it’s only a dream, but I guess I’m the guy who bids $1 on The Price Is Right.”
I’m the guy that bids $2.
I say:
1. 1 year
2. 13 Mil.
3. He turns it down.
2 years 8 million with 2 million in incentives and yes he will take it
3 yrs
$36 mill and an official Shane Monahan coffee mug
June 12
2 yrs
$20.5 million
Mutual option for a 3rd year at $12 Mill
April 15
And his recipe for snickerdoodles makes it into the team cookbook.
3 yrs
$36 mill
2 years
17.75 Million
2 yrs, 23 million, with an option for a 3rd year at 12 million (500k buyout).
Man, if Raul gets anything close to what some of you are predicting I’m going to swear off the M’s.
Derek, do you have a prediction?
I’m waiting for comments to run.
2 years
25 mil
May 26th, 1pm
1 Year
$11 million + mutual option
Feb. 22
A nonpublicized part of the deal is that Raul agrees to move to DH or 1B as soon as either Vidro or Sexson are kicked to the curb.
Exactly Grizz. Ibanez knows that he is a defensive liability.
The relative production per dollar in your deal is better than the production vs contract for Vidro or Sexson.
One year and one option year w/buy out clause
10 million/1.28million buyout
April 02
2 years for $12.5 million total
Signed March 27th
This is wishful thinking but the Mariners dont resign him and package him and Sexson to the Giants or Yankees for a pitcher and some prospects. Balentin takes over in LF, Clement to 1b until we figure out what to do with Vidro. The trade will be announced on Valentines Day. 🙂
That said the Mariners wont do the above so they’ll give Ibanez a huge contract and trade Balentin for another mediocre pitcher. I agree that it will be somthing like 10 mill a year but somebody already has that so i’ll go with the under of 29 million with an option, but dont forget the signing bonus of 2.5 million.
3 years 29 million
Club option 4th year for 8.5 million.
Signing bonus 2.5 million
Grand total 40 million
This time the day before Valentines Day, Feb. 13.
No new deal.
Imo, the Mariners are starting to realize (finally) that they need to stop playing geezers and go with more youth.
Re: Placid’s (# 105) “The old adage says it’s better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.”
[This may sound picky.]It’s not an old adage. It’s an opinion once expressed by Branch Rickey; and not everyone agrees with him.
Some think that you should squeeze one more year out of the guy before you trade him.
Those people are wrong.