Prediction contest: Ibanez’s new contract
DMZ · December 31, 2007 at 1:31 pm · Filed Under Mariners
I joked that Raul’s comments to the Seattle Times for that Monahan refutation earned him his next deal — and maybe it did! His contract is dangerously close to coming to an end after this season, and the team is probably already talking to him about returning.
So — leave a comment with your guess. Include:
1. Years
2. Contract value (salary only)
3. Date the extension will be officially announced by the Mariners (press release or press conference, either way)
Last one was a 2y, $11m contract announced in March of 06, the last year of his previous deal.
Winner gets a lovely prize, all three answers required to be eligible.
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143 Responses to “Prediction contest: Ibanez’s new contract”
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2 years, $16 million, June 25.
2 years, 15.5 million. Signed before or during Spring Training.
Repeated from below thread:
2Y/$22M, March 15 (beware the ides…)
Every year forever, $5 million dollar option (a la Tim Wakefield), and it was already secretly signed.
President and Sovereign Emperor for Life!
2 years, $18 million. Announced March 6th.
Everyone is giving the Mariners way to much credit in their speculative contract offers. I think you will see a 3 year $34 million extension with a player and club option for a $13 nillion fourth year!!
3 years, $26 million. Announced on March 30. Mariners will gush about how this will make Raul a Mariner for life.
I forgot to say when they would announce the deal. It will come right after they trade away Adam Jones and another player for a pitcher that so far no one has even considered for a trade (and likely for good reason).
3 yrs (3rd year is club option) 10 million per year.
announced January 21st
1/2. 3/$33m (to make up for all those hometown discounts)
3. March 18
Personally I can’t wait to see how hilarious Mariner baseball can get when we have Ibanez manning left field in his age 43 season.
I’m gonna go out on a limb…
1.No
2.New
3.Deal
I know it’s only a dream, but I guess I’m the guy who bids $1 on The Price Is Right.
If they extend him — and they probably will… listen up M’s… be damned sure that Vidro often doesn’t jest.
Raul uncharacteristically struggles out of Spring Training, injuries hinder his performance throughout the majority of 2008-
“November 15th, 2008 – The Seattle Mariners offer a one year deal to veteran Outfielder Raul Ibanez with a base salary of $6.5 million”….Beyond that, the crystal balls begins to get fuzzy.
2 years, $15 million, March 20
1 Year.
9 million.
March 25th.
7 years
250 million dollars
February 13th
Bonus contract extension for bloomquist.
March 30, 2008: the Mariners announce a new 2 year, $26 million extension for Raul Ibanez just in time for opening day.
April 29, 2008: in the 4th inning of a chilly game in Cleveland, Raul Ibanez severely tears his right hamstring while chasing down a fly ball Adam Jones would have caught with ease, ending his season.
3 years, $25.5M, February 29
April goes horribly wrong, so on May 5th, the M’s, in an attempt to create some goodwill with fans, cut Sexson and announce a 1 yr deal with Ibañez for $5m.
1 year (’09) plus a one-year option with a $1M club buyout for ‘10 (’cause, after all, the Mariners are nothing if not fiscally responsible); $8M for ‘09, option year for $6M (but with the buyout); announced May 15.
benno – April 30, 2008 – local papers note the irony that the ball that was hit into left field that caused Raul’s hamstring tear was hit by Adam Jones who was ironically traded for the Mariners pitcher who was on the mound at the time, Cliff Lee, back on January 20th.
2 years, 20 million, May 8th
Ok, that’s a little too plausible. Stop, you’re scaring me.
Actually, change mine to 2 years 18 million, still may 8th.
3 years, 21 million, Feb. 1
2 years (3rd year mutual option)
$17 million
November 14th, 2008
3 years, $31 million, February 23rd
2 years (3rd year mutual option), $16 million, the deal will be announced May 5, 2008.
Happy 2008!
Zero, Zero, Never.
3 years, 25 million, March 31.
2 Yrs, $12M, July 31.
NO WAY they go over this, because if it’s more than $6M/year the M’s will go sign Griffey in the $7-$8M range to be our DH…and THEN dump a boat load of money on Texeira longterm as our power LHB @ 1B. With $31.5M coming off the books, we can definitely afford Tex @ 1B in 2009!!!
3 years, 27 million, March 26.
3 years, $25m (+$5m performance bonus for last year), March 30.
$10m first and second year.
$5m third year as Mariner Moose with bonus based on plate appearances of $5m to also play left field in Moose outfit.
Also, fourth through 50th year team requirement (not option) of $2m per year to be the voice of the franchise (as well as the face) and take over all broadcast duties for team.
No deal happens. Mariners fall out of contention in June as the red hot Angels pull ahead by 8 games. In a move to be nice Ibanez is traded to the Phillies for their playoff push for a live arm in A ball. The M’s get hot and go on to win the AL West and then are crushed by Boston (because they will be the best team ever).
DRMariner, I don’t think irrational and misguided optimism is allowed in this thread. It’s a thread of doom about Ibanez. Mods?
2 years, 21 million, July 1st
It’s a valid prediction.
2 years
10 million
Mar 20th
3 years, $28m ($7m 1st year, $9m 2nd year, and $12 for the final year), March 28. The contract will be back loaded because the M’s think they are in contention.
Sorry, forgot this:
/sarcasm
1. 2 years (possible third year option);
2. 14 million
3. Announced as soon as the team realizes they aren’t going to do anything major this offseason . . I hope, I hope. They’ll get it done before Spring Training, January 22.
2 years, $18 mil March 30, 2008.
1. 2 years (3rd year player option)
2. $13 million
3. Announced on June 30th
3 years, 27 milllion, club option for 4th year. By the end of that contract he’ll be 38-39 and close to retirement. The Mariners will then extend another minor contract or he’ll retire with the club.
1. 1 year
2. $6M
3. 4/1/08
2 years, 18.5 million, announced March 23rd
3 years
$9 million per year, $27 million overall
June 11th, 2008.
Four years, $55 million dollars. Announced February 1st, 2008.
2 years, $20 million, July 2008
2 years, fourteen million, March 4th.
I don’t get why everyone cries about Ibanez. He is a solid professional hitter, good person on and off the field.You know what you will get for him .290 .350 .480 25hr 100rbi 90runs every year. Comes at a decent price. Whats not to like? I do agree that he should be playing DH other than that whats the problem?
3/30, June 22
#53: His age and his defense.
“everyone cries”
Who’s crying? Come on, it’s a prediction contest, not a dead horse flogging.
It would have to be dead, for Ibanez to catch up to it.
Three years $35 million. Mutual option for the fourth year.
Date announced April 22, 2008.
behappy:
I get your Ibanez Love. Most of the people who frequent this site (myself included – though I did argue with Dave over whether the M’s should re-acquire Ibanez circa 2001 or 2002 on the M’s usenet BB and feel vindicated by his performance since) thought the M’s seriously overpaid for Ibanez not once but twice, thinking his combination of mediocre-to-poor defense and increasing age was a recipe for an albatross contract. We’ve all been proven wrong, and the authors here have even admitted as much.
Still, just because we were wrong three or four years ago doesn’t mean that lingering feeling is wrong now. Even through your Ibanez Love, you must realize that ALL players eventually see whatever skills they once had eroded by age. The Mariners have bucked that not once, but twice. It is fair to say (even sarcastically) that perhaps it is take this dead hose to water, and force him to drink. Whaaaaa? Even I don’t know what that means, but seriously . . . it’s reasonable to both respect all that Raul has done, and still think maybe it’s time for another direction at the end of this contract, OK?
I’d correct that sentence to say “It is fair to say (even sarcastically) that perhaps IT IS TIME to take this dead horse to water, and force him to drink” but the whole sentence was a shitpile from the beginning, so never mind.
2 years plus a mutual option, $17 million with $10 million for the option year, January 9th to offset the Shane Monahan madness…
You can take a dead hose to water but you can’t keep it from sucking it up.
2 years, $14 million, and announced on Feb. 21st 2008.
Can I humbly submit that we should add “professional hitter” to the list of proscribed phrases?
4 years, $17 million, May 24 2008.
Family man, good for the community!
2 years / 15 millions of dollars / April 1st — just so everyone hopes it might be a gag before learning the painful truth.
3 years/ $31 million
Announced on March 14.
2 years/ 25 Mil/ June 2nd
2 years, 15 million, March 3rd.
1 year, $8.5 million; mutual option for 2nd year at $9 million
March 15th
2 years, 19 million, march 12th
2 years, 21 million, with automatic vesting for a third year at 12 million if performance incentives are hit. February 16th.
3 years / $28M / March 17
2 years / 28-30 million / Before opening day.
Remember, this is the team that gave Silva 4/48 so they probably value Ibanez as much, if not more.
2 years, $24M, March 3rd.
because, you know, “There is really a very limited supply of left-handed hitters of Raul’s caliber. He hits with men on base, hits both left-handers and right-handers and has a stroke that is a great fit for our ballpark. That’s before you even consider his leadership and character.”
#66: Don’t you forget about that VETERAN GRIT.
Crap, I forgot a date. We’ll say May 26, Memorial Day.
2 years, $22M, March 30 2008
He will no longer be a Seattle Mariner…Front office knows he is over the hill and best days are behind him, going to get another LF or bring up a young kid.
Maybe even move Jeff Clement to OF til Johjima is through
3 years
$20 mill
Jun 25th
2 years, 17.5 million (9 million mutual 3rd), Coming 3 days after a popular homerun, which I estimate to be May 17th. However, before then, I expect him to say he is considering retirement, before he doesn’t.
1. 4 Years
2. $52 Million
3. July 15, 2008
This is probably a conservative estimate. Silva got $48 million, and he doesn’t have half the veteran grit and know-how that Ibanez has. In Bavasi and McClaren’s mind, Ibanez’s intangibles probably equal at least 15-20 wins.
2 Years – $18 million with a third year team option of $9 million. The deal is announced February 14th as the greatest gesture of love to all Mariner’s fans on Valentine’s Day.
The deal is announced 2 days before or 2 days after trading AJ and Morrow for a quality 5th starter and veteran setup man. Nobody can shadow abysmal trading news like RAUUUUUUL.
Hows about 4 years/ $32 Million. Announced August 2nd, 2008.
2 years, $21mil, i’ll say June 13th b/c its Friday the 13th and the M’s will do something really dumb that day.
3/30/Valentines Day
2yrs/12M/Aug 3
I’m late so all the good guesses are already taken but still: I’m go for 2 years, $16 million plus the Mariners agree to cover Ibanez’ Boy Scout uniform costs for life.
1yr/10.5M with mutual 1yr option 12M with 3M buyout
Announced April 21st
After being spurned by the Twins and Johann Santana, being shot the bird by the Orioles front office in an attempt to land Bedard and being completely humiliated by the Rays in a failed attempt to trade for anything resembling a starting pitcher Bill Bavasi will announce an amazing triumph for all Mariners fans on March 23rd. After difficult negotiations the Mariners will re-sign Raul Ibanez to a 3 year $22 million contract extension with a mutual option for a fourth year guaranteeing the proven veteran will miss catches AJ would make in left field at Safeco through the 2011 season and possibly through 2012.
As a bonus he will announce that after tearing up Cactus League pitching for a .355 BA and 7 HR’s in 75 AB’s Richie Sexson has also agreed to and signed a 3 year $45 million contract extension…we’re doomed.
2yrs
17 million
March 27th
2 yrs, 23 million, with an option for a 3rd year at 12 million (500k buyout).
Announced on Saturday, August 23rd before the A’s game.
It will be a much hyped former Mariners greats day to maintain interest in a team that has fallen out of the race. During the pre-game festivities Raul is brought out and the contract is announced.
USSM server crashes at 638pm.
3 years
24 Million (plus some incentives not counted)
May 1, 2008
Raul’s extension will be 2 years, 17 million dollars. The deal will be announced June 4th.
3 years: 1st year, 9 million, 2nd year 9.5 plus a team option third year for 10 million in 2010.
I’ll second the Leap Year Day (Feb 29th), 2 years $20 million.
Ibanez will resign for 4 years and $26mm on February 25th, which is my 26th birthday. It will be my usual birthday present from the Mariners: mediocrity with a hint of despair.
3 yrs / 33 million / March 27
2 Years/10.5 million/March 31
2 years and option for 3. 16Mil for 2, 10mil 3rd year. July 27th so they can ruin my birthday.
2 years/16 million/March 3
2 years, 18 mil, August 19th
I predict the Seattle Mariners will not offer Raul Ibanez a contract extension in the likely event that he maintains his current Type A status in the Elias rankings.
Over the past four seasons, Ibanez has performed beyond expectations while being a model citizen on and off the field. Ibanez deserves to be rewarded with a good contract.
However, the Seattle Mariners should let another team offer that fat contract.
The Mariners have no guarantee that Ibanez, who turns 36 in June, will continue to perform at his recent levels.
Ibanez currently ranks ninth among the 23 American League outfielders, firstbasemen and designated hitters with the Type A status in the Elias rankings.
If Ibanez maintains the Type A status at the end of the 2008 season, the Mariners can offer Ibanez arbitration without offering him a contract extension.
If Ibanez accepts arbitration, the Mariners can get him back for one year at a decent price.
If Ibanez declines arbitration and signs with another club, the Mariners should receive a first-round and sandwich draft pick as compensation.
Those two high draft picks could be worth more than Raul Ibanez at ages 37 and 38.
The old adage says it’s better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.
Seattle fans should always revere Ibanez, but from a purely business standpoint the Mariners might be better off by letting Ibanez walk.
I might change my mind if Ibanez loses his Type A status or if Adam Jones, Wladimir Balentien and other young outfielders fail to develop.
Sooo that’s an argument that no extension will be announced next season.
Ohh, this will be Bavasi’s greatest moment
…
2 years plus an option year
$14 million, with $6 million option year plus loys of incentives
February 24th, 2008
1. 2 Years
2. $13.6 million
3. March 18, 2008
Annnnd, placid gets the Most Likely to Become Steve Kelley Award…..
2/22 on 4/15
1. 2 years
2. 21 =$10 and $9 + $2 bonus, another $3 in incentive.
3. March 7th, (Ruining my birthday)
My tiebreaker pick is that placid is wrong.
Placid is wrong, but he’s right.
Now, if he could only write paragraphs of more than one sentence….
June 20th, 2008
$18 Million plus $4 million incentives
2 Years
plus option year
2 years
16 million
Valentine’s Day
3 years. $25 million. Februrary 28
3/19.5 6/29/08
going out on a limb here:
traded to NL contender (STL? LAD?) in late July for crappy minor leaguers. Extended by that team for 1 year, 8 million.
ooh a specific date: July 24th.
2 year 15 mil
August 15th
Southpaw, I hope you are wrong…that announcement on that day would totally ruin my birthday.
My guess…3 yrs, 22 mil, announced March 2
2 years: 2008, 8 mil and 2009 club option for 8.25 mil= 16.25 mil announced on Feb 4th.
2 years
1 option year that is mutual with some absurdly high buyout clause
$14m per year
Announced by March 22nd.
They want to make sure this isn’t a distraction going into the year. You do the math with the performances and payments to Silva, Washburn, Sexson, and Vidro and $14m/year looks like a bargain in their blurry, blood shot eyes.
1 year
7.5 million
April 2nd
2 years $11.5 million with a team option for a third at $6 million that will automatically vest with 400 plate appearances in 2008/2009 each.
Announced May 1.
OT news…[deleted, OT]
2 years
17.75 Million (including bonus, excluding buyouts)
Announced February 26
#12 – “I know it’s only a dream, but I guess I’m the guy who bids $1 on The Price Is Right.”
I’m the guy that bids $2.
I say:
1. 1 year
2. 13 Mil.
3. He turns it down.
2 years 8 million with 2 million in incentives and yes he will take it
3 yrs
$36 mill and an official Shane Monahan coffee mug
June 12
2 yrs
$20.5 million
Mutual option for a 3rd year at $12 Mill
April 15
And his recipe for snickerdoodles makes it into the team cookbook.
3 yrs
$36 mill
2 years
17.75 Million
2 yrs, 23 million, with an option for a 3rd year at 12 million (500k buyout).
Man, if Raul gets anything close to what some of you are predicting I’m going to swear off the M’s.
Derek, do you have a prediction?
I’m waiting for comments to run.
2 years
25 mil
May 26th, 1pm
1 Year
$11 million + mutual option
Feb. 22
A nonpublicized part of the deal is that Raul agrees to move to DH or 1B as soon as either Vidro or Sexson are kicked to the curb.
Exactly Grizz. Ibanez knows that he is a defensive liability.
The relative production per dollar in your deal is better than the production vs contract for Vidro or Sexson.
One year and one option year w/buy out clause
10 million/1.28million buyout
April 02
2 years for $12.5 million total
Signed March 27th
This is wishful thinking but the Mariners dont resign him and package him and Sexson to the Giants or Yankees for a pitcher and some prospects. Balentin takes over in LF, Clement to 1b until we figure out what to do with Vidro. The trade will be announced on Valentines Day.
That said the Mariners wont do the above so they’ll give Ibanez a huge contract and trade Balentin for another mediocre pitcher. I agree that it will be somthing like 10 mill a year but somebody already has that so i’ll go with the under of 29 million with an option, but dont forget the signing bonus of 2.5 million.
3 years 29 million
Club option 4th year for 8.5 million.
Signing bonus 2.5 million
Grand total 40 million
This time the day before Valentines Day, Feb. 13.
No new deal.
Imo, the Mariners are starting to realize (finally) that they need to stop playing geezers and go with more youth.
Re: Placid’s (# 105) “The old adage says it’s better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.”
[This may sound picky.]It’s not an old adage. It’s an opinion once expressed by Branch Rickey; and not everyone agrees with him.
Some think that you should squeeze one more year out of the guy before you trade him.
Those people are wrong.