Also note that if revenue sharing makes it so that a smaller and smaller percentage goes to players, players will negotiate or strike on the issue. Selig has admitted to revenues exceeding 6 billion, and yet the average team payroll is under 100 million (under 3 billion total). Having under 50% of your revenue to payroll is something that the NFL does. The NBA and NHL have a system set up so that 55% or so goes to players.

It’s possible that players will agree to payroll and salary caps, if they can force a 55% level. Otherwise, as MLBAM becomes the equivalent of NFL/Cable, player salariess will not keep pace.

***

As for the general theme, of course there will be ebbs and flows. This happens in MLB and in every industry. I’ve shown the numbers above. But in terms of long-term trends, the business of baseball will outpace inflation by a good margin, be it at 8% or 10% or whatnot.

Energy prices will be THE dominant factor in any discussion of future economic circumstances.

tangotiger said:
Working against the players is that there’s more revenue sharing (meaning less likely for a team to see increased revenue for increased performance… since that revenue will be siphoned off).

That’s a scary thought. What’s the incentive for a team to win if they’re getting more money from revenue sharing and standing pat then from being competitive?

If more teams do end up going the way of the Cleveland Indians, you could end up with teams making absolute shitloads of money on teams with payrolls ~70 million. Any team can field a team with that kind of money, and then pocket the insane amounts of profit for the owners. 10 years ago, a 70 million dollar payroll was for only top end franchises like the Yankees. Now, it’s “frugal”. The worst part is, you can do that and not even bother fielding a winning team and make a ton.

So what’s the incentive to win? The fanbase getting antsy? Jeff Loria has proven that fanbase anger doesn’t freaking matter.

Working for players is that owners treat the extra capital appreciation as a bonus, and might give it to players.

I almost choked on my Coca-Cola. Unless the Players Association steps up and demands it, it wont happen.

If by “spin off”, you mean “take public”, I would guess not – if MLB were to take MLBAM public via an IPO, baseball would have to open its books for the government and the world to see how it runs its business. I’m a bit skeptical that MLB would ever want that kind of financial transparency.

Derek, you’ve mentioned real estate as an economic ill, but that’s only a piece of the whole recession puzzle. Declining public infrastructure, climate change, military expenditure, and peak oil are all going to put huge strains on the economy that could see our real wages fall, but this leads to an interesting (baseball) point.

The value of the dollar.

Inflation is on the rise due to higher gas prices and the way our economy is currently structured – requires lots of oil. (Huge trade deficit could factor in.)
But the contracts that baseball players are given are assigned fixed costs. If inflation were to skyrocket to something nasty like 20%, then the cost of Carlos Silva will decrease with each year to the point he is being paid about 60% less by the end of it. Maybe in 10 years the league minimum will be the equivalent of a current teacher’s salary.

Hopefully I’m exagerating…..

Or is this just Derek’s SF future history he developed in writing class this summer?

I’m not as pessimistic about the US economy as he is (though, given the state of the US economy, why are the presidential candidates spending so little time discussing it?), but a little economic pressure is all baseball needs to get smarter and stop wasting money on guys like Silva, and find new and better ways to share revenue (like MLBAM).

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

This time it appears that the OTC derivative market is pushing the Fed, perhaps causing enormous deflation while the Fed has no choice to follow, and thus inflating as it goes. We may be looking at extended stagflation, and in this case, you just may see a prolonged period of consumer’s tightening their belts and not spending like a crazy 8 year old in a toy store as in 2001.

Commodities are the place to be and out of dollar based assets. I’m sorry to say, but the M’s won’t be getting much $ from me this year as I have positioned my assets in a defensive strategy (been doing this since 2002). Last year, they got some $ from me as a fan, but sadly, that is something that has to be sacrificed as this economy continues to unwind.