Comments on: Adam Jones and Erik Bedard, Quantified

By: grayrockravens

grayrockravens — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:20:05 +0000

Hi all. O’s fan here. I see the overwhelmingly pro-Jones chatter in here, which is to be expected on a Mariner’s fan site, but I am just wondering how many of you have actually seen Bedard pitch. He has legitimate #1 stuff and was on his way to challenging for the Cy Young last season before they shut him down with his oblique. He has steadily improved the last couple of seasons and has come up big despite playing in the brutal AL East. His numbers against the BOS and NYY last season:

W L IP H BB K ERA
3 0 34.2 16 10 34 2.08

I’ve never seen Jones or any of the other prospects being discussed so I’m definitely not qualified to determine whether it’s a good trade for the M’s. Keep in mind also that Bedard has been playing his entire career for a terrible team with mostly subpar defensive players behind him.

As a miserable O’s fan for over the past decade, I’m sad to see home grown products Roberts and Bedard about to leave, but this is something that we should have done years ago… Good luck to you guys

By: skyking162

skyking162 — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 01:58:15 +0000

My question is whether the “value” part of the win, i.e. the dollar cost, is higher across the board for starting pitchers than for fielders.

It shouldn’t be, if a win is a win. But if pitchers do cost more, why would you want to put your money into pitching? Isn’t that the overhyped mantra of Moneyball — spend your money more efficiently? It pitching is more expensive, then you’d only put money into it when you’ve maxed out your offense. That’s not much of an issue for the Mariners.

By: Thoan

Thoan — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 23:44:52 +0000

179, 180: Yes, a win is a win. But Dave’s table isn’t just about wins. It’s about “win value,” which contemplates not just wins the the dollar cost of getting there. My question is whether the “value” part of the win, i.e. the dollar cost, is higher across the board for starting pitchers than for fielders.

By: jamesllegade

jamesllegade — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:38:39 +0000

What about Bedard/Roberts for Jones and Lopez and some lesser lights of the farm system?

How does that pencil out?

If we do indeed ship Jones to Baltimore… is there anything we could get back that would make win-shares sense? What about a lefthanded slugging OF? Huff? Luke Scott?

also… is there a list somewhere that I can read to see what counts as profanity on this site? I thought i was being overly cautious when I replaced that “i” with a “!”.

By: thefin190

thefin190 — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 10:21:57 +0000

182 – Dave suggested something similar to that a couple weeks ago.

By: jes1181

jes1181 — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 07:23:52 +0000

Long time reader, first post…

The idea of trading Jones is not one that is high on my list. I think Jones is going to be a special player. That being said, I have seen only a comment or two of maybe growing this trade to include more players.

If Baltimore is considering dealing Roberts to Chicago, why not see if we can get him included with Bedard.

Obviously we would send Lopez (even suggested by a prior post) in the deal.

Bedard + Roberts for Lopez + Clement + Balentien + Morrow + Tillman

Baltimore isn’t going to compete next year or even in the next couple, but in adding 5 young players would be a good start.

By: jamesllegade

jamesllegade — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 03:39:40 +0000

Bavasi or who ever the Japenese ownership hire to replace him (you can bet it won’t be a stat-geek but another old school type) will just [seriously, the various profanities with one letter replaced are getting very old, please find another way to express yourself] that extra Jones money away on someone horrible anyway.

So you can’t compare Jones and Bedard win shares in a vaccum… I would rather have Bedard locked up than Bavasi roaming the streets like a drunken sailor with 44 mill in his pocket.

By: tangotiger

tangotiger — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 00:02:03 +0000

A win is a win is a win.

If Dave is marking Bedard as being 4 wins (or whatever) over the dregs of MLB (i.e., the guy you can have for 400,000$), and if he is marking Adam Jones as being 2 wins over the dregs of MLB, then that’s that.

By: Graham

Graham — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 23:53:35 +0000

And that issue is, whether pitchers have the same win value range as everyday players.

Isn’t this the point of a run conversion?

By: Thoan

Thoan — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 23:46:06 +0000

Dave, your analysis needs to address an obvious issue to be meaningful. And that issue is, whether pitchers have the same win value range as everyday players. Since starting pitchers work only every fifth day or so, intuitively it would seem that their win values would overall be much lower than, say, a three-tool fielder. And if this is so, then the win values of disparate traded components will not be 1:1, i.e., a quality starting pitcher will be worth a higher win value in fielders than in other starters. Hopefully, you can address this in your analysis.

This is brought up not in support or denigration of the rumored trade of Adam Jones + for Bedard (though I have confidence in Bavasi’s skills at getting fleeced). Bavasi probably is also considering (among other things, including his chair temperature) that 1) starting pitching is a scarcer commodity than hitting/fielding, and thus commands a higher price, and 2) having a Weaver or HoRam on the mound makes players like Jones less valuable, as they never get a chance to make a difference before games turn hopeless (and, they get neck strains watching balls fly over their heads and out of the park). These are not illegitimate concerns for a GM, but the use of win value doesn’t fully address them.