No news is good news
DMZ · January 10, 2008 at 11:02 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Day twenty passes. The M’s sign Chris Reitsma to a minor league deal. Yes, that Chris Reitsma. But a minor league deal is not a bad deal, and the streak continues.
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Do they ever learn????
Bavasi’s logic probably looked something like this: Well, Chris Reitsma > Rick White. And Chris Reitsma > Jason Davis. And Chris Reitsma = veteran grit.
So in some ways, this deal wasn’t bad. Personally, I would advocate the signing of Mike Cameron, due to a certain trade Mariner fans are dreading.
So does this mean they dont have to look for that veteran right handed set up man?
**before throwing anything I warn you that I am very skilled at dodging flying inanimate objects**
If Reitsma doesn’t make the club, he can be hired on as Bedard’s Canadian translator.
So the Cairo signing was just “not good” as opposed to bad?
I don’t particularly like the Cairo deal, but two postives. First, it was less than a million and only one year, so its not like they will be paying Weaver money for Weaver performance. And second, it takes playing time away from WFB, which is good too. Thirdly, how could I forget this, he will add veteran presence and ‘mentor’ the young and confused Jose Lopez.
I think that’s fair. We’ve seen plenty of “bad” from this club. Ranked alongside, say, trading for Horacio Ramirez, signing Miguel Cairo barely warrants a mention.
From Rotoworld, re Reitsma:
“If it doesn’t work out for him, he’s at least as qualified as Miguel Cairo to serve as a backup infielder for the club.”
So the Cairo signing was just “not good” as opposed to bad?
I don’t think you can ever claim 850,000 as crippling. Sure, it’s bad, but it’s not a season breaker. It’s morely just a reminder of what organization we cheer for thinks is a good move.
Cairo is just confusing. It’s not a “egad” thing, it’s more of a “why bother?” thing. Reitsma is nothing.
Anyone think Jason is being used by his “sources”?
BTW, Friedman economics is at war with democracy. The government doesn’t exist to enforce contracts and protect our borders-it exists to protect us from economists.
You guys sure are tempting fate….
3 – THAT is hilarious.
Cairo’s contract shouldn’t end up being too bad. Not very expensive and, hopefully, he shouldn’t see the field too much.
However, can we retroactively make it bad if AJ gets traded, meaning he gets more playing time, and change the length of the streak?
I think the streak is coming to a close…
Rosenthals latest blog reports Bedard deal is closer than ever. This time it includes Jones, Tillman, Sherrill and Triunfel. Talk about getting FLEECED.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7656588
thats the link for Rosenthals blog
Rosenthal’s list of players makes for a hurtfully bad move. I’m seriously in physical pain just thinking about it.
And I can’t believe that the only reason they haven’t pulled the trigger yet is that the M’s want to keep Tillman too badly. Even if Tillman and Morrow never pan out as major league regulars, I will always have a special love for them if disagreements over their value keep Adam Jones in Seattle.
I was just saying if one was to categorize the Cairo deal as either “good” or “bad” I think most would agree with the latter.
But I guess since we’re talking Mariners we have to discuss degrees of awfulness.
#13– just to note that Rosenthal’s note was from yesterday, and has been painfully discussed. (Discussed painfully?)
how about the rumoring that the Ms really are talking with Luis Gonzales, with the picture that then follows of Bedard pitching for the M’s, backed up by an outfield of Raul and Gonzo.
Well, I think Morrow, Tillman, and Sherrill for Bedard would satisfy the O’s needs. Straight up, pitcher for pitchers.
Surely they know they need pitching more than any other AL club!
If they did that deal, their rotation in a few years could look like:
1) Brian Burres
2) Daniel Cabrera
3) Morrow
4) Tillman
5) Adam Loewen
Not great at all, but better than the alternative.
However, if I was Bavasi, I would try to pull off something like this:
George Sherrill, Jose Lopez, Brandon Morrow, Tony Butler, and Matt Tuiasosopo for Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard.
Seems realistic to me. This would give the M’s:
1) Felix
2) Bedard
3) Silva
4) Washburn
5) Batista
Having a 16 game winner as your number five sounds good to me.
And if the M’s were to include AJ in the deal, one need only sign Mike Cameron for a year or two. After Washburn and Richie are gone, this frees up money to go after a big-name outfielder, or two.
I just wish they had gone HARD after Geoff Jenkins…Ichiro will be playing 70% of the OF if he has Raul on one side and Luis on the other.
the O’s are apparently asking Chicago for pitchers Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher and infielder Ronny Cedeno for just Roberts. You may have to make your offer larger.
I don’t think the money is the problem in the Cairo deal. Its the fact that Cairo has essentially taken Broussard’s spot on the roster. With the M’s insisting on keeping a larger bullpen and a smaller bench, that just creates more issues with late inning pinch hitting match-ups….Oh wait, lefty on lefty only works when the M’s are pitching and not batting.
All this talk of Cameron, but didn’t he not like playing here? I seem to remember he liked his teammates, the fans, and the city, but was not fond of hitting at Safeco at all.
Refresh my memory if that is incorrect.
Hey, I agree with the general sentiment not to trade Jones for Bedard. However, if it happens, what about Hideki Matsui as a potential replacement? He only has one year on his contract. The Yanks could use some RP.
Sign Cameron? Why don’t we keep Jones who can field as well as an aging Cammy and hit for more power and average? Jones is nearly free, better, faster, younger and has pretty much unlimited potential.
Those of you who want Bedard, do you recall any pitching trade of this ilk that has been a great deal for the team acquiring the pitcher? Go ahead, name one. I’ll wait….
Seriously, WTF? Any deal that sends Jones away is just plain robbery for the M’s.
#24, I’m in full support of keeping AJ, but Boston picking up Beckett seemed to work out OK for them…
Pedro Martinez for Delino Deshields worked out pretty well.
Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi.
Herschel Walker for Dynasty.
25 – You beat me to it. They also were forced to take Lowell, which didn’t turn out so bad.
Boston sent SS Hanley Ramirez along with pitchers Anibal Sanchez, Guillermo Mota and Jesus Delgado. Four prospects.
Boston got Beckett, Lowell and took on considerable salary to get the deal done.
The Bedard isn’t Beckett.
If anyone still believes Jones to be just a prospect, they are seriously mistaken about baseball in general.
Bedard isn’t going to make or break our season. Showing up every 5 games is a far cry from being on the field every day like Jones would be. He is going to take away runs with his defense and he is going to add runs with his bat and speed. He will be a huge threat in each game. He makes all of our pitchers better by simply showing up to run down balls. Bedard is good and I’d love to see him in a Mariner’s uniform if it doesn’t cost Jones.
I think the ticker is like those ones you see at an industrial workplace “days since a lost time accident”. Cairo’s signing was like someone going to the boss for a band aid because he cut his finger. IT hurts, it’s bad, but you put the band aid on, go back to work and the next day you get the flip the sign to the next number. The Bedard trade, for the players being mentioned, is like someone walking out to start his day and having the delivery truck back over him and crushing his legs.
30 – How predictable. You asked for examples, and now you’re going to nitpick the examples given.
Adam Jones has never been traded for Erik Bedard, so if you’re going to be so specific, I guess you got us. We sure can’t name a single trade “of this ilk” that has ever worked.
“Bedard isn’t Beckett.”
I disagree. Bedard is very much on the same level as Santana/Sabathia/Beckett. Doesn’t make him worth the rumoured package, but that’s a different argument.
By undervaluing Bedard, all it does is give the pro-trade folk a chance to make a legitimate argument that you’re wrong.
RE:
Bedard v. Beckett
This is something I argued over at Baker’s blog….
The difference between that trade and this one, is that Boston traded away A) players at the same position (Sanchez for Beckett, Garcia for Mota), and B) players at positions already covered (Ramirez, with Lugo and Alex Gonzalez). In other words, Boston traded from positional strengths, not weaknesses. We have one good corner outfielder now: Jones. And we want to trade the one we have? That’s where the greatest failure of logic is, when trying to compare the two trades.
17- how bad would our outfield be with Gonzo and Raul out there…the offense would be okay, i’m sure they’ll both hit .275+ with 15-25 homers and a decent on-base, but the defense would be putrid…my god Ichiro would get a lot of miles in…
Look at it in terms of Freddy Garcia, John Halama, and Carlos Guillen for Randy Johnson…… 2 players who were very good to great and one who was a decent enough 4th starter. For 1/2 season of RJ. Sure, they made a run and they did pretty well after that (well = made it to the playoffs). It worked out pretty well for the M’s, too.
At the time of the Beckett trade, he was 25 and the only injury history of concern was blisters. Moreover, he was prepared to sign a long term deal, and, in fact signed a 4 year deal for below market the following year. Beckett was also a high first round draft pick with 3 prior years of mid to low 3s era.
Erik Bedard will be 29 this year and has serious health concerns including back and arm injuries. He was a 6th round draft pick. His last three years are similar to Beckett’s before the trade, but Bedard has been quite vocal about his desire to test free agency in two years.
I think it would be fair to say that Adam Jones is more highly regarded right now than Hanley Ramirez was at the time of the Beckett trade. Though a top prospect in the Sox system, he was coming off two disappointing minor league seasons and had only tasted triple-A. If Adam Jones were to get full time at-bats this year, he will be about the same age as Ramirez was when he got his full-time job in Florida. Jones has already excelled at triple-A and is above average at his defensive position.
Tillman, et al., are certainly as valuable as Sanchez and “taking” Lowell off of the Marlins payroll.
In other words, Beckett was a more valuable commodity than Bedard at the time of trade and the apparent cost was less. In light of how Ramirez has turned out and the ongoing concerns with Sanchez’ health (which is probably what made him expendable in the first place) it has become somewhat harder to gauge.
Bedard is
The two trades above are obviously not the same, but Beckett was the center piece, which may have been #24’s point.
You’d have to dig for days most find a trade that is EXACTLY like this rumored one, if you could at all. And this trade may never even happen. That makes it pointless to ask someone to give such an example, and to carry on the argument.
I’d actually be down with sending farm arms to the O’s for Bedard. An arm like Morrow is worth a premium price right now and developing arms are much bigger risks than position players.
If you have to go full bore “win-now” something like Morrow, Butler and Vlad for Bedard isn’t that out of line with the bar that some of Beane’s deals have set.
I don’t want to give up Jones or Triunfel as part of a Bedard deal.
Pretty much anything else prospects-wise (within reason), I’m okay with.
40- i agree 100%
We have Vlad?!
I am going to go into my broken record mode for a second. Let’s say the trade goes down in one of the forms being speculated. What angers me is that I feel like I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that the player chosen to replace AJ in our lineup will be chosen with absolutely NO regard to defense. On top of that, Raul will still be performing his nightly rendition of a pillar of salt in LF. So we now have an admittedly much improved rotation, but are we really any better?
I am selfish in this regard, but my season tickets are in RF. I did not enjoy watching Guillen butcher the position last year. I want to see an athlete play in front of me when I go to the games. It is frustrating to watch outs get played into singles and doubles day after day.
For me this whole argument is not about me thinking I am right and others are wrong. It just boils down to me being sick of being told by the actions of our FO that defense doesn’t matter.
That should’ve been VVlad (two V’s)
On an unrelated note, I haven’t seen any mention of dealing Sexson lately. Is it pretty much a given now that he’s going to be at 1B on opening day?
45-
go to the official website…you’ll see that the Ms are “power-packed at the corners” next year.
How many days has it been now that they haven’t traded Sexson? Every day he’s still on the roster is a bad move.
47- didn’t you know? MAC is expecting a HUGE year from Big Sexxy!
This might shoot some flames my way but all this reminds me of three words:
Jose. Cruz. Junior.
Man, the hubbub I remember when we traded him to the Jays… “oh man we just sent a way a soon to be perrenial All Star” and the such…
We all know how well that trade worked for us, but how well did Cruz turn out? Granted, I’m not a stathead (unfortunately) like a lot of people on here so I do not have serious concrete numbers to back myself up on this but I don’t recall him putting up crazy good numbers like everyone believes Jones will. Please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong on this…
Keep in mind I would still very much prefer to keep Jones and would rather deal Morrow instead, but the Cruz thing in my mind just shows that it’s not a guarantee Jones will be the next big thing… (though it is definently looking like it)
Semi related side note: At one point we almost got Vernon Wells from the Jays for the purpose of trading him for PHIL NEVIN.
http://origin.www.cbc.ca/sports/story/2001/01/04/bluejays010104.html
We’ve been over this before.
There is no reason to undervalue Adam Jones because one only marginally similar past player didn’t live up to expectations.
jones is the real deal
It was not meant as un understaement of Jones. I full well agree with everyone on here about how good we figure he will be. I was just saying it is not a guarantee he will be, even though it’s pretty darn likely he will.
At least if this trade does happen we will get someone other than two average at best relievers…
Not only that, but Jose would have been more useful as our everyday LF than Timlin and Spoljaric ended up being. I am not saying Jose was amazing, but he was a very serviceable OF for a few years while we dumped Timlin way too fast giving us little value from that trade.
wow, my spelling is horrible in that… my apologies.
There’s also no guarantee that Erik Bedard won’t spontaeneously combust tomorrow.
cruz was decent for a few years and teams after we dumped him…jones will hopefully be a star here for his entire career…
#49 — The M’s of 97′ were in a different situation than the M’s of ‘08. They ran away with the AL West and were within legitimate striking distance of the WS. I do not consider that to be a probable scenario for the ‘08 Mariners.
There ARE NO GUARUNTEES. And that goes for established players as well as emerging players.
What people are objecting to, and what you’re getting guff for, is for putting emerging players to a higher standard than established players.
Yes, there’s a chance Jones won’t pan out–but there’s an almost a magnitude of order larger chance that he WILL pan out. It’s like looking at a glass filled close to the brim and saying, “Well, it’s not full….”
Rumor has it that Cameron just signed a one-year deal with Milwaukee, leaving the M’s with one less outfield candidate to replace Jones, assuming he is traded.
Where did you see that Logger?
The thing to remember about Beckett/Lowell for Ramirez/Sanchez is that at the time it wasn’t necessarily a good trade for Boston, and it’s turned into a quiet debacle. Beckett is great, but Hanley Ramirez put up an EQA of .323 at shortstop last year for free. He was likely worth more wins than Beckett was at a fraction of the price; which price gets worse if you allow for the fact that Boston took on salary in the deal. Grisly.
Trading more talent for a lesser pitcher who’ll cost more sooner is… pretty typical for Bavasi.
Jones is not Griffey and certainly not Cruz who was a poor fielder before the trade (and after.) I was one person who kept telling people that Cruz was being way overrated by a fanbase that thought “prospect” meant a player with a bat like Junior or A-Rod. He did have a chance to be at least somewhat special with the bat, but not with the glove. That’s the biggest difference between Cruz and Jones.
61-
becket and lowell were two of the main reasons that boston won the world series…it was a good trade for boston…
Boston may have screwed up in that deal, but I wouldn’t trade Jones for the last 2 years of Beckett either. 1 Ace year and 1 3rd/4th starter year…at least he’s cleared 200 IP in both, which is something I doubt from the next 2 of Bedard.
Hanley Ramirez for free is more valuable to a team than Beckett and Lowell at their salaries. If the Red Sox won the World Series with Beckett and Lowell, they could have not paid Lugo to suck and saved the money they’re paying Beckett and Lowell, bought alternatives to both and still won the WS, modulo luck factors. And I hope you’re not going to say that Boston should be trading away 10 win shortstops being paid league minimum in exchange for magic beans^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hluck factors.
Yeah, Cammy signed with the Brewers. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3192184
We can put that one to bed.
There is no way in hell Hanley Ramirez is a 10 win shortstop. Defense matters.
I agree that Jones has the skills to be a very good player, but I’m just not sure what everybody has seen so far that makes you think he’s the next superstar outfielder. I know he tore up the league in AAA last year, but I don’t remember him being that great in his limited time with the M’s. To be fair, I think he was underplayed when he was brought up, so that is probably part of it.
There are a lot of people on here who comment on how his defense will save all these runs. This leaves me scratching my head. I haven’t seen Jones do one thing in the time with the M’s to make me think he is going to be a great defensive player. I saw dropped balls and bad reads more than spectacular plays.
I know I’m going to get bashed for writing this, and I’m really not trying rip the guy apart, but I think we need to give this more time before we start talking about Jones as “the next big thing”. I would love to see him in the outfield for years to come.
That being said, I am still on the fence about this Bedard trade. As much as I would like to see how it turns out with Jones, I remember listening to the games on the radio last year and just being DISGUSTED with our starting pitching. When we were going through that losing streak at the end of August last season the biggest thing being talked about was that the M’s didn’t have a “stopper”. If I remember right, Felix won both of the M’s 2 wins in a 15 game stretch and the problem was, we didn’t have anybody to keep it going. So I like the idea of getting a solid pitcher and Bedard seems like the best pitcher out there that is obtainable (I think we could all agree that there is nothing the Mariners could or should do to get Santana). I don’t like the fact that if we make the trade that is being rumored now, we will have a hole in the outfield and we would lose our left handed setup man. That just doesn’t make sense. I would much rather see the M’s put Morrow in the mix. We already know that the O’s have a great deal of interest in Morrow, I say lets find out how much. Could we swap Morrow for Jones in this trade? If we could I would say go for it. I still wouldn’t like giving up Sherril but if we could keep Jones and get Bedard, that would be the best case scenario in my opinion.
Patterson is the only one left I like at all
I know I’m going to get bashed for writing this, and I’m really not trying rip the guy apart, but I think we need to give this more time before we start talking about Jones as “the next big thing”. I would love to see him in the outfield for years to come.
Relying on his major league numbers and your own perceptions of his defense is a great way to be wrong.
Ok, that was perhaps too harsh. Jones is a consensus good centre fielder, which means he should play even better in the corners (i.e. significantly above average). In addition, his Major League numbers mean absolutely nothing.
Blech. The current list of available FA outfielders reads like a who’s who list circa 1998: Luis Gonzalez, Ryan Klesko, Ricky Ledee, Terrence Long, Eli Marrero, Orlando Palmeiro, Shannon Stewart, Jose Valentin, Rondell White, Brad Wilkerson, Preston Wilson and Barry Bonds, Corey Patterson, Kenny Lofton, Brady Clark, Steve Finley, Curtis Pride.
#70
So does relying on minor league numbers and your own perceptions make you right? I’m not trying to get into a war here, like I said I’m just curious what people have seen. As I said numerous times I would like it if the M’s kept Jones, I just haven’t given him the “superstar” title yet.
The only person on that list I’d even want to consider is Lofton.
Because a player can start their career with seasons like .204/.241/.204 in 54 AB’s and .232/.264/.408 in 142 AB’s and turn out to be the Alex Rodriguez we know.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml
So does relying on minor league numbers and your own perceptions make you right?
Well, the minor league numbers are certainly more predictive, and since I haven’t seen Jones fielding enough to figure out how good he is, I rely on other people’s opinions. So yes.
Nobody has given him a superstar title. I’d expect him to be a slightly below average corner outfielder with good defense next year, for example, and most projections are in that range.
boston making a deal that helped them win the world series is a bad thing? wow…if winning the world series is bad, then the mariners must be the greatest team ever…
Or should I say that the year immediately after that he EARNED the MVP even if he didn’t get it.
Wait…I don’t want to compare Jones to A-Rod for any reason at all. I’m just saying that it’s cases like that (and opposites, hot start but went nowhere) that make it really difficult to guage a player by a few limited AB’s in their first year or 2.
#72 — I didn’t see Shawn Green on your list, and I believe he is a FA.
Also, we should keep in mind that if the M’s trade AJ, they are not trading a prospect. They are trading their starting RF, and if Sherrill is included, they are substracting one of their more valuable bullpen pieces. That is one of the reasons why I do not support a potential Bedard trade.
#76
I’d expect him to be a slightly below average corner outfielder with good defense next year, for example, and most projections are in that range.
If you could get that out of Jones next year that would be great. As for the superstar title, I guess I’m talking about the people that say if we lost Jones it would ruin this team. I just don’t understand the logic there.
Willie Bloomquist.
That, by definition, is an above average outfielder.
At age 22, that’s pretty good.
If you assume that’s he’s going to improve with age (and that’s not a bad assumption), then perhaps you can see the logic.
As for the superstar title, I guess I’m talking about the people that say if we lost Jones it would ruin this team. I just don’t understand the logic there.
We’re talking long term here, not short. 6 years of Adam Jones, 6 of whatever other prospects we have to give up, plus a few more of George Sherrill is not worth 2 of Erik Bedard, epsecially since we’re not close enough to the postseason for Bedard to be the difference betweeen glory and sitting at home in October.
I definetely agree that Bedard does not equal a championship. Although I do think that it would be a pretty nice piece to have. I agree with you that Jones in the long run would be better than Bedard for two years. At first I was for trading Jones if it meant getting Bedard, but I’ve changed my mind on that after reading that Bedard isn’t going to sign an extension. I still think the M’s should try to put Morrow in that trade if it means we can keep Jones.
83-
i think that’s the biggest problem here…casual fans and the FO look at the team’s sham of a record from last year and think that bedard is the “last piece of the puzzle” to put seattle in the world series…it’s ridiculous…why mortgage the future for a two-year rental that will make the rotation better on paper…this topic is giving me an ulcer…
It’s a terrible idea. I’m gutted even thinking about it.
Oh, the horror…
Now that I think about it, I envision Morrow as a closer or set-up man due to his lack of an out-pitch and tendency to predictably throw high heat. We’re good in that department, so he seems expendable.
Also, the buzz on RRS being a rotation candidate seems to have died down as of late. I wonder if we could get an above-average centerfielder in exchange for him and maybe Sean White and another B prospect.
#79
Yep. Shawn Green is a Type-B FA, which means Seattle would not lose any picks by signing him. Looks like I also missed: Bobby Kielty, Trot Nixon, Reggie Sanders, Darin Erstad and Jerry Hairston Jr.
Yay.
I take back my urging to sign Mike Cameron. The Brewers got him.
Graham,
Do you really believe such a threshold exists? I think some very unremarkable teams have pulled it off (’87 Twins, to give the example from Curveball). It’s all a crapshoot, and I think that’s a better way to confront the ‘we need Bedard’ crowd. Sure, we’ve increased our chances. But only for two years. With Jones and the others, we increase our chances for the next 5 or 6, at least.
How did RRS and Morrow pitch in Venezuela? I tried looking it up myself, but didn’t have any luck.
What about Brad Wilkerson? He put up decent numbers except BA (20 homers, 64 RBIs) in a limited role…he’s left-handed and has played both corner outfields and 1B in the past…would he be another Raul on defense?
Ok, maybe I missed this already but what about Jeremy Reed? I know he’s not Jones, but if Jones goes I would think he would at least be a serviceable fielder in a corner spot.
92
A totem pole slathered in Crisco would be better than Raul on defense. Wilkerson moves pretty well, but if memory serves me, the last time I checked his ZR and RF he was below average.
#93 Jeremy Reed could put up the numbers that Jones would next season. However he is injury prone. I think thats a pretty good idea since next season the Mariners could sign someone next season or maybe Reed breaks out or maybe Balentien* (however you spell his name) breaks out.
77: I don’t think I follow your logic from my 65. Could I get you to expand and clarify?
Jeremy Reed graded out as an above-average CF when he played. Defense is not his problem. The problem for Reed is that he is physically incapable of making contact with pitches in approximately 18 different quadrants of the Ted Williams hitting zone.
Idea for discussion –
Assumning Jones goes and we’re stuck with Raul being an OF, put Reed in left, move Raul to right, and keeping Balentin in AAA until Reed eventually gets hurt and has to go on the DL?
Reed has some major league experience and I feel (statheads may prove or disprove this at your leisure) he would probably put up better numbers than Balentin.
And when Reed does make contact it looks like Lee Elia is hitting fungoes to the infielders.
I thought it was 77 quadrants…
91, bubblegumcrisis,
Follow the link under Mariner blogs at left, labeled “Mariner Minors”. They keep very good track of the winter leagues, updated weekly.
Reed would almost certainly do better than Balentin:
http://www.ucomparehealthcare.com/drs/california/family_medicine/Balentin_Renee.html
Or did you mean Balentien?
Has there been any recent talk of the Mariners looking at Bartolo Colon? Last I heard, they didn’t want to sign him for just a year. Is it just me or does that seem like a mistake? I don’t remember a year when Colon was healthy and had a bad year. Why wouldn’t we look at signing him, hold on to Morrow, Jones, Sherrill ect. and see how Colon can hold up?
#99 That’s awesome!!
Regarding the Boston trade…
Boston can “lose” a trade based on player value (ie, giving more than they got), but still “win” based on outcome (ie, Beckett was the push they needed to win the WS).
Boston is a fantastic franchise, and is (now) perenially close to the playoffs. For them, trading an uber-prospect-stud may make sense, if the return will give them a great shot at the title.
For the Mariners, I think we can all agree that Bedard, even if pitches like Cy Young, will not push them to the next level. Thus, they lose on talent and lose on outcome. (And that’s not counting chance of injury, short track record, Bedard looking worse because his defense is now Raul and LuGo, etc.)
The real crime here, I think, is that the Mariners believe they were an 88-win team last year, and that adding Bedard is the final piece to the puzzle.
And even that’s not counting that the “88-win” team lost its 3rd best hitter in Guillen, and would also be losing their ace lefty reliever. Thus making them, prima facie, worse than last year.
If you think that this is your window, and 2 years of Bedard may push you over the top, then it might be worth the moon (6 years of Jones, 6 years of Triunfel, Sherril, etc.) The Marlins have won 2 championships this way.
Given that this is NOT the window, and the Mariners are NOT close, and the talent you give up is quite steep, then there is really no way to define the proposed Bedard trades as “good”.
The rumor on Bartolo Colon is that his arm woes are worse than he let on last year—not a good pickup for ANYONE.
Yay for poor typing skills. Go team me.
AAA numbers I found:
Balentien
139 H, 87 1B, 24 2B, 4 3B, 24 HR, 54 BB, 105 SO
Reed
169 H, 114 1B, 37 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 47 BB, 73 SO
I think I shall retract my previous statement of Reed’s superior offense.
#105
Now that you mention it, I do remember reading that he can’t get his fastball above 90mph so maybe he’s not really an answer. On the other hand, could he possibly be worse than HoRam?
If Baltimore wants a CF so bad, I wish there was a way to con them into taking Morrow and Reed instead of Jones…
Do you really believe such a threshold exists?
The threshold here is a reasonable projection of what the Angels will do. If you can catch them, go for it, but if you look at the gap and say that we’d have to get lucky to match their record, or they have to slip up… that’s the point at which gambling on 2008 gets a bit futile.
I think it is appropriate to sort out our list of the variables that have to go right for the M’s to contend with and without this trade happening. Since I’m finding myself on the fence over this one, seeing the “what if’s” side by side was pretty interesting. For the sake of argument, in each scenario Jones and Bedard will come as advertised. I’ll also include a shopping list of parts I see as needs for each.
Please note that I am only leaving out the value of the prospects to address the “how close are we to competing” issue.
option #1- We keep Jones and company:
Felix could break out and play the majority of the season in the dominant fashion he flashed last season.
Take your pick of the rest of our rotation would have to step up and have a career year.
The back end of our rotation would have to preform above or at replacement value at worst.
Big Sexy would have to shake off last season’s horrorfest, and put up some decent #’s, .260 with 35 HR’s seems possible
Raul would have to stay healthy, and play like he did in the second half.
Yuni and Lopez would have to each take a step up in their progression.
Our manager couldn’t give any games away.
Shopping list: A LH DH not named turbo, take a couple fliers on Spring invites to compete with in housers for the 5th spot in rotation.
The least probable things to happen are with the starting rotation, and Raul performing in my mind.
Option #2- we trade the farm for Bedard:
Starting pitching is immidiately taken care of for the season (barring unforseen injuries of course.)
We still need Big Sexy to earn his name back.
We still need Raul not to suck.
Yuni and Lopez have to fix their mental errors.
Our manager still can’t give games away, but is less likely to make terible and unthinkable bullpen moves in that he’s given less opportunity with better starting pitchers (Although I’m sure he’ll find a way to make throw things at the TV).
Shopping list is now: LH DH not named turbo (what do you all think about Gonzo as DH? If Barry’s not in jail that could be fun too), Corner outfielder to replace Mr. Jones (preferably with +defense, I like the idea of Shannon Stewart, but even J Reed would play great D)
Provided we can pick up either a DH with some power, or a decent OF, the least likely thing to go right is now just Raul not sucking.
So I would argue that this deal puts us closer to a run at the post season, but with the right aquisitions to go along with it gives us more than a punchers chance.
One favor, instead of blasting me for selling the future, lets talk about who we could aquire to fill the holes, and then discuss whether or not the total package we would field in 08 would be worth it.
I dunno. Given that the major weakness of the deal is BECAUSE it sells the future (and that you start having to plug holes you don;t have the material for because of it) I think you need more plusses in favor of it.
This is one of the reasons that I backed off of wanting to make this trade. We waited to long and now I’m not sure if we CAN find the pieces to make it work if we make a deal. We’d need an outfielder that could produce better than JR, and a left handed setup man. I don’t know if you can find one that would be as productive as Sherrill. As for a DH, couldn’t we use Vidro and Clement there for the season? Now that Clements name has been taken out of the trade rumors, isn’t this the most likely spot for him in the near future?
So you’re not arguing that if we just go free agent and sign Shannon Stewart to play LF, move Raul to RF, and pick up Gonzo for DH along with fixing our starting pitching we don’t have a chance this coming year? That was my point…
Now, whether that chance is worth shipping out jones is where I think your going. I’m more inclined to inquire as to what is thought of our ‘08 chances, with additions before I decide if that is worth control of Jones for years to come.
As for a DH, couldn’t we use Vidro and Clement there for the season?
Clement needs to be a catcher for him to have any real value, and the only way for him to do that is to get more reps in AAA. He shouldn’t be in the bigs, and he definitely shouldn’t be DH’ing.
So you’re not arguing that if we just go free agent and sign Shannon Stewart to play LF, move Raul to RF, and pick up Gonzo for DH along with fixing our starting pitching we don’t have a chance this coming year?
We wouldn’t have much chance, no.
Stuart in left sounds good, but what do we do to replace Sherrill? Is there anybody out there that could step in?
116
Does Sherrill’s replacement have to built like an old Dutch woman? If so then probably not. Otherwise . . . probably not.
Yeah, I don’t know if you could find anybody else in the league with allegator arms like that. But I WAS talking about his effectiveness. A hard throwing left handed setup man is a great thing to have.
What about Jeremy Affeldt . . . and why on earth is he still unsigned? Money?
Really, few have suggested that Jones is a guaranteed superstar when arguing against trading him as part of a deal for Bedard.
Jones has the potential to become an elite player but I doubt he reaches that ceiling. That said, I think there is a really good chance that he spends a significant amount of his control years being around a 4 win over replacement RFer (a little above average offensively and a plus defender-think Alex Rios’ ‘07 season). Given his development thus far, I think it’s pretty reasonable to hope he could be at least league average next year and beyond (roughly 2.5 wins above replacement).
You don’t have to be Vlad G. to be valuable.
I can’t even fathom how the calculus passes mustard for Bavasi when variations of several of these guys (Sherrill, Morrow, Triunfel, Tillman, Clement etc) start getting added to the list in addition to Jones.
I still wont believe that the rumors reflect the true parameters of these discussions until the trigger actually gets pulled and my suspicions are proven wrong.
#88– Erstad signed with the Astros
#113–Gonzo didn;t hit enough in the NL, what chance does he have as a Dh in the AL?
The only way that Jones not ending up as a superstar, rather than just a very good player (which he already is), changes the value of this deal would be if the relative economics of both players were equal.
Once you figure in how much cheaper Jones will be for the next few years than the big money it’ll take to resign Bedard once he’s ready to hit free agency…it’s no contest, and the fact that Bavasi might be willing to add OTHER significant talent just makes the whole thing laughable.
#119– last I heard the Rox wanted to resign him, but he was looking for more years than they wanted
“#88– Erstad signed with the Astros”
How could I forget. There mere thought of combining Erstad with WFB was so gritty to fathom I had to walk through an automatic car wash.
I never said Gonzo was going to be a killer at the plate, but he’s an available, affordable LH bat that would be a step up from turbo imo. And with Stuart in the two hole, I think we have a respectable lineup. If Morrow is still around after the trade, is it possible to package him for an LH bat for the outfield or DH?
Does anyone know who might be available via trade?
Shouldn’t that be a clear signal that perhaps trading so much for Bedard may not be a good idea? It starts a cascade of multiple trades that HAVE to get done in order to fill the holes you’ve opened up. And that’s the sort of thing that jacks the price up IF you can get them done—which is not a given the trading.
Seems a little jury-rigged, paritcularly in a year when signable talent is so thin…and you’ve just traded a lot of your valuable trading chips.
Stewart will be 34 and is coming off his first reasonably healthy year since 2002. Last year was probably his best during that time and he hit 290/345/394. I don’t see that line as particularly valuable or useful. Moreover, due to numerous knee and foot injuries, he’s lost a lot of range and never had much of an arm to begin with.
Luis Gonzalez is 40 and was somewhat better than Stewart last year, hitting 278/359/433. He is pretty much useless in the field at this point, but he’s probably a minor upgrade over Turbo if you want to eat the salary, but it still fails to address your left field problem and Gonzalez has to be at least as likely as Jones to go in the tank this year (particularly after changing leagues and moving to one of the more pitching friendly parks he’s ever playerd in).
The fact is, trading Jones opens a huge hole in the outfield without a promising replacement on the market or a reasonable replacement for the next six years in the wings.
If Bavasi was really thinking of sending away Jones earlier this off season, he should have planned a backup long before now. If it comes down to giving some can’t-play-left and about the same threat as a hitter than Vidro to play left field, it’s just an entire mess. If it comes down to giving up Adam Jones, the best option is probably sitting on the projected AAA roster in Wladimir Balantien. Jenkins would have been perfect, Cameron would have been okay (but no way the team is looking to bring in somebody suspended for breaking the drug rules), anybody else just makes me even more peeved than I already am.
Clearly, if his offseason goes as to tendering HoRam, not taking a free draft pick when Guillen was going to walk, dealing Broussard for peanuts, overpaying for Silva, guaranteeing money to Cairo, shipping off the future for Bedard, and giving an overpaid hack 500 ABs and 140 games in the outfield — that’s about seven negatives in my book.
I will root for Detroit and Tampa Bay — at least they’ve got a clue, either go for it now when you’ve got a chance or give yourself a chance to do it for years to come. A ton of damage hasn’t been done to the future yet — I’m still an M’s fan for now, but the next several moves could sway me from the team until some changes at the top are made.
Imagine if we would have rightfully drafted Andrew Miller. We wouldn’t even be in this position right now.
Stop it Bill. Don’t do anything else.
Actually, he should say, “Howard. Chuck. SHOVE IT and SHUT UP.”
Because it’s clear that a lot of this stuff is coming from over his head.
As a former major league observer and an unpaid, and unnoticed, consultant to every team major and minor, I feel easily as unqualified as the rest of you to comment:
1. What is the record of the M’s protecting young players, and then turning it to their advantage down the line? (Little Unit alone drops that to a D in my book).
2. What is the M’s history of non-A-ROD minor league talent contributing to a winning team?
Does the farm just suck? Do they don’t know how to use it? Don’t know. Guess: Yes and Yes. But projections and league-wide stats mean very little when normed against “YOUR SEATTLE MARINERS”. It’s a weird place with a weird team.
Stat heads, ATTACK!
skipj
130: For Number 2 Varitek and David Ortiz used to be in the Mariner Farm system and played for the Red Sox. Asdrubal Cabrera is the starting second Baseman for the Indians and we traded him for some loser who had like 100 at bats. Those are the ones I can think of off the top of my head without trying too hard.
Unless I’m mistaken, there’s a guy named Ken Griffey Jr who came up from the farm and contributed to a winning team. And another one named Edgar Martinez (who could’ve contributed much sooner than he did). And another one named Tino Martinez (though most of the winning teams he contributed to were in the Bronx).
The Ms farm is in pretty good shape at the moment.
Dave Henderson got a WS ring and was on 3 WS losers.
Did everyone hear that Jones left winter ball early and is headed back to Seattle?