Comments on: ‘08 M’s, Meet the ‘07 Blue Jays http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/ Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg Sun, 08 Nov 2009 02:50:26 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Alaskan http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247990 Alaskan Tue, 15 Jan 2008 04:20:24 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247990 73, I was wondering that myself. Maybe it's because the issue with ERA is that it doesn't isolate defense, but in this analysis, we aren't concerned with analyzing defense? I suppose it doesn't matter who saved the runs, or if it was park factors or what, just as long as the basic formula is the same - 2 good pitchers, 3 average to below average pitchers. So, the short answer would be that ERA isn't useful for individual pitching evaluation, but acceptable for a holistic team view. Obviously I didn't write the post, but that's my theory for Dave's justification. Do you buy it? 73, I was wondering that myself. Maybe it’s because the issue with ERA is that it doesn’t isolate defense, but in this analysis, we aren’t concerned with analyzing defense? I suppose it doesn’t matter who saved the runs, or if it was park factors or what, just as long as the basic formula is the same – 2 good pitchers, 3 average to below average pitchers.

So, the short answer would be that ERA isn’t useful for individual pitching evaluation, but acceptable for a holistic team view. Obviously I didn’t write the post, but that’s my theory for Dave’s justification.

Do you buy it?

]]> By: ArtfulDodger http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247979 ArtfulDodger Tue, 15 Jan 2008 03:18:30 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247979 I simply need to know. How is it that i got lambasted for using ERA (previous thread) as an accurate stat to evaluate pitchers, by Dave, (The quote was something like "ERA is a completely worthless tool for evaluating pitchers." Then I was referred to the remedial reading "How to evaluate pitcher talent." Which i read and found helpful) then Senor Dave busts out with ERA as a tool to evaluate and compare the Mariners with the Jays? You can't have it both ways. Either ERA is useful or it isn't. I simply need to know. How is it that i got lambasted for using ERA (previous thread) as an accurate stat to evaluate pitchers, by Dave, (The quote was something like “ERA is a completely worthless tool for evaluating pitchers.” Then I was referred to the remedial reading “How to evaluate pitcher talent.” Which i read and found helpful) then Senor Dave busts out with ERA as a tool to evaluate and compare the Mariners with the Jays?

You can’t have it both ways. Either ERA is useful or it isn’t.

]]> By: Graham http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247971 Graham Tue, 15 Jan 2008 02:47:20 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247971 See, this is what happens when I try to be nice when explaining that you shouldn't use RBI/HR. I'll know better next time. See, this is what happens when I try to be nice when explaining that you shouldn’t use RBI/HR.

I’ll know better next time.

]]> By: Jeff Nye http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247956 Jeff Nye Tue, 15 Jan 2008 01:06:32 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247956 Must...control...fist of death... Must…control…fist of death…

]]> By: gwangung http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247954 gwangung Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:59:32 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247954 OK...that's an exaggeration...but there's all sorts of work done on projecting minor league numbers to major league numbers...and a lot of that work is being used by successful major league franchises. Some of it is kinda simple, too---if you knock out a lot of home runs out of a minor leauge park where it's hard to hit homers (Cheney just might fit the bill here), then there's a good chance you can knock a few home runs out in the big leagues (even in a park like SAFECO). OK…that’s an exaggeration…but there’s all sorts of work done on projecting minor league numbers to major league numbers…and a lot of that work is being used by successful major league franchises.

Some of it is kinda simple, too—if you knock out a lot of home runs out of a minor leauge park where it’s hard to hit homers (Cheney just might fit the bill here), then there’s a good chance you can knock a few home runs out in the big leagues (even in a park like SAFECO).

]]> By: gwangung http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247952 gwangung Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:52:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247952 <blockquote> that’s what projections are my friend. you can use numbers he posted in AAA all you want but there is no sure-fire way to predict - </blockquote> Bill James disagrees. He has a ring. You don't.

that’s what projections are my friend. you can use numbers he posted in AAA all you want but there is no sure-fire way to predict –

Bill James disagrees.

He has a ring. You don’t.

]]> By: DMZ http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247949 DMZ Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:33:05 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247949 Why not? You're expecting him to perform to a certain level, and you're freely admitting you have even less evidence to back up that claim or methodology in your projection. I could claim he'll hit 60 home runs, because I did his astrological chart or something, as long as we're discarding all reasonable assumptions. Also, that "you don't have a life" thing is out of line. Why not? You’re expecting him to perform to a certain level, and you’re freely admitting you have even less evidence to back up that claim or methodology in your projection. I could claim he’ll hit 60 home runs, because I did his astrological chart or something, as long as we’re discarding all reasonable assumptions.

Also, that “you don’t have a life” thing is out of line.

]]> By: spar123 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247947 spar123 Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:26:11 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247947 that's what projections are my friend. you can use numbers he posted in AAA all you want but there is no sure-fire way to predict - you can spout off well the #'s say this or that but they aren't always right/dead on. In his first year you can't expect him to come out and hit his max of say 25-30hrs/100+ rbi's. It just doesn't work that way. I could put together all sorts of number projections off this or that but I have a life and realize that the #'s aren't always right and there is a human factor into what a person does also. that’s what projections are my friend. you can use numbers he posted in AAA all you want but there is no sure-fire way to predict – you can spout off well the #’s say this or that but they aren’t always right/dead on. In his first year you can’t expect him to come out and hit his max of say 25-30hrs/100+ rbi’s. It just doesn’t work that way. I could put together all sorts of number projections off this or that but I have a life and realize that the #’s aren’t always right and there is a human factor into what a person does also.

]]> By: gwangung http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247939 gwangung Mon, 14 Jan 2008 23:25:43 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247939 <blockquote> well let see - jones is only likely to put up something like 15/75 next year as he’s still pretty green </blockquote> Pulling numbers from thin air, I see.

well let see – jones is only likely to put up something like 15/75 next year as he’s still pretty green

Pulling numbers from thin air, I see.

]]> By: Graham http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/comment-page-2/#comment-247938 Graham Mon, 14 Jan 2008 23:24:16 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/12/08-ms-meet-the-07-blue-jays/#comment-247938 You're incorrect. Mariners were roughly a .500 team last year if you like Pythag (and hey, if you don't, we were better), and have gotten better - Jones is a net improvement over Guillen due to defense, and Silva is an improvement over Weaver. Yes, they would be better with Bedard, but only for one season and we wouldn't get anywhere with it. PS: There are much better ways to evaluate a player than making up random HR/RBI numbers for them. The way analysis is conducted normally involves runs above/below average for both batting and glovework, but you can get away with a using OPS/mention of defensive ability. HR and RBI ain't gonna fly, though. You’re incorrect. Mariners were roughly a .500 team last year if you like Pythag (and hey, if you don’t, we were better), and have gotten better – Jones is a net improvement over Guillen due to defense, and Silva is an improvement over Weaver.

Yes, they would be better with Bedard, but only for one season and we wouldn’t get anywhere with it.

PS: There are much better ways to evaluate a player than making up random HR/RBI numbers for them. The way analysis is conducted normally involves runs above/below average for both batting and glovework, but you can get away with a using OPS/mention of defensive ability. HR and RBI ain’t gonna fly, though.

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