M’s still pursuing #1 starter
DMZ · January 25, 2008 at 12:53 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Baker writes of Bavasi’s continued pursuit of Bedard. I mean, a #1 starter.
I guess we’re not out of this yet.
The thing that stuck out to me was the comment about getting “from 88 wins” to where they want to be. Clearly, they don’t see last season’s performance as a fluke, and think that any addition they make will add on to that — rather than a .500 team that is unlikely to compete for a playoff spot next year.
Also — Tony Clark rumors. What in the world would the M’s want Tony Clark on the team for?
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Pythagoras never subscribed to a daily newspaper.
Looks like it’s in Baltimore’s hands at this point. Please let them be as stupid on this decision as they’ve been on essentially every other choice they’ve made in the last 10 years or so. Please!
Sure, and you could take that as an indication that Bavasi doesn’t know his team outperformed its Pythagorean record last year, but that doesn’t seem very likely. As a GM you can’t go into a press conference and say, “I’m staring a .500 ballclub in the face right now and the best trade I could reasonably make at this point might make it two games better, and hurt us a lot in the future.” That GM gets fired four days later.
That’s ridiculous. You’d never say that. You’d say “As much as you always want to add to your pitching, we think Adam Jones has a terrific future and we want it to be with the Mariners, and that’s not even getting into these other great players fans should be excited about…”
The Tony Clark issue was addressed this am by ESPN – apparently he is such a good guy that Derek Jeter calls him “Mister Clark” – thats clubhouse-veteran-ness that the Ms seem to adore.
Imagine the commercials! The “Clark-ie” moniker. How tall the Bobbleheads would be!
Another fine clubhouse presence,great. But where in Hell do they play the guy?
Maybe in a pipe dream scenario Tony Clark is wanted to add depth at first when they dump Richie Sexson on the Giants.
I suspect they look at the team with the following perspectives:
1. Ibañez, Ichiro, Johjima will continue to perform as they have.
2. Sexson and Lopéz are likely to perform significantly better.
3. Beltré is continuing to acclimate – he should do at least as well as last year.
4. Betancourt is still at an age where hitters improve – again should perform at least as well as last year.
5. Vidro provided what was expected and he also has a good track record. Not playing in the field should maintain his productivity.
6. That leaves RF as the only question mark position; but with every other spot likely to provide at least as much offense as last year some decline in offense there can be accommodated.
7. The bullpen will continue to be strong.
8. The gap between Pythag win record and actual team record last season was not a fluke – it was the outcome of building a team of players who know how to play the game and who have grit, character, and veteran savvy. Also because the starting pitching was bad the Mariners had an unusually high proportion of games in which they were blown out as compared with games in which they blew out the other team.
9. Ergo, replace HoRam and Weaver with Bedard and Silva and you may have netted yourself ten wins between the improvements in offense and the improved starting pitching. That means “Contender, Baby!!!!”
Not saying I agree at all – just saying that strikes me as a simple summary of how they might be looking at the team.
Even if we can re-sign Bedard to a lucrative extension, I’m not sure if I will be able to stomach seeing Jones’ sweet swing and rocket arm making all-star teams for Baltimore. I live in DC and enjoy going up to Camden, but it might be ruined for me if this trade goes through.
I would prefer to watch Bedard shut down the Nats in their new ballpark as a member of the NY Mets. I will pay to see that and smile for the whole game knowing that at 10pm ET Jones will trot out into RF for the M’s — and for the next 6 years.
Tony Clark was a pretty good baller. He could probably play for the Sonics right now.
Bavasi trying to acquire Bedard: in it to win it!
Do you mean “pursuing,” or did I miss the pun?
Out of all the the lefty hitter available via free agency, Clark might be the best option. (Shawn Green would be more expensive, and I won’t get into Bonds.) If he were signed, that would fill out the 13 position players on the 25 man roster(assuming no trades). I assume that if either Vidro or Sexson struggle, Clark is an immediate replacement for one or the other in the starting lineup. I doubt that the M’s would sign Clark to be the 2008 version of Roberto Petagine, but what do I know?
Accoring to the articles out today, not only do they have an offer(s) for Bedard, but also for Jonah Santana and Ian Snell…if we DO trade Jones (which I pray we DO NOT) Bedard would be better than these others because he is just better than Snell and Santana will bolt after one year to free agency (assuming he’s even waive his no trade clause and come here)…either way, if Jones goes, it’s all bad news kids…
12- I think that Brad Wilkerson would be the best option at this point…he can play the corner outfield spots, first base, is a lefty, hit 20 HRs in limited time last year, and is relatively young…only problem is that I read he wants 3 years for 21 million and probably wouldn’t want to be a bench player…how about Wilkerson in right, Jones if left, Raul at DH and Vidro on the bench? I’m down with that…
My guess is that Clark is insurance for whichever 1B-DH guy falls flat on his face first. I’m not completely against it.
If Tony Clark is signed and Sexson is released/traded/taken to the pound, I’d live with it. For a year. Not quite disgruntled. But a bit gruntled.
#14 — As you indicate, Wilkerson would be more expensive than Clark. Plus, I do not like how his home/away splits trended last year when he played half of his games in Arlington.
I don’t think Bavasi thinks this team is as bad as it should have been last year, but I think he knows it wasn’t an 88 win team. That said, I think he blames the starting pitching primarily for a cascade effect of other things – offense wasn’t good enough to play from behind, bullpen collapsed from overuse, etc.
That means, in his mind, getting the rotation to the point of looking like this – Bedard, Felix, Silva, Washburn, Batista – means that the rest of the team improves dramatically as a result. Bullpen gets stronger down the stretch, offense can play more relaxed by not playing from behind, young guys can be tested in lower pressure situations, backups (like the guys they’ve already got and who they are reportedly looking at) can keep heat on underperformers, etc.
He also looks at Jones and says – well here’s a guy that’s likely to contribute a lot down the road, but I’m pretty happy with where my offense put us last year, assuming that we get even a small bounce back from a couple of key guys. Do I really need to replace Jones’ potential, or do I need to get us to the point where we at least cover Guillen’s contribution offensively? I think he believes that whoever he puts out there in place of Jones combined with a couple of guys hitting even slightly better will get him what he needs to improve the club with the revamped rotation.
Is he wrong? Probably, because defense matters more than he realizes, and Silva’s not as good as they think, but what can you do? Bad evaluation of talent got us here, and it’s likely to continue.
11. That’s ridiculous. You’d never say that.
Um. Yes. It’s ridiculous. It’s a literary device called “hyperbole.” Bavasi was at a press conference, during which his job was to hype his product. Downplaying the goodness of last year’s team is naturally going to be out of bounds, even though 1) it’s true, and 2) it’s crucial to the understanding of the construction of this year’s team.
If I understood the point of your post, it was that Bavasi’s reference to getting from 88 wins to a playoff team indicated that Bavasi didn’t understand that that 88 win number was soft, and is/was/will be making ill-founded judgments based on that lack of understanding. That’s one possibility, but I think it’s unlikely. There’s no way Bavasi doesn’t understand Pythagorean records.
@14,
don’t believe everything you read. Wilkerson isn’t getting 3/21
Tony Clark would be signed to play right field, giving us quite the anomoly…. 2 extremely slow outfielders and one really fast one.
A part-time 1B/DH is, of course, just exactly what the Mariners are short of . . .
wasn’t Tony Clark’s little brother a Husky? That must count towards being a hometown guy …
I just keep trying to figure out just why they think they are close enough to the post-season to trade away their right-fielder etc. for a non-innings-eater. and just what offense will be supporting that putative no. 1 pitcher?
I don’t like how Baker edited Bavasi’s comments. If you read the same general report points on MLB.com’s report it keeps a lot of the comments a little more into the context of what he was trying to say.
What I took from Bill’s comments were that they’ve made the offers, they’re not adjusting them, and not going to give up a ridiculous number of prospects or top prospects to get them. Yes, he still wants Bedard, but he’s not going to give up Jones, Triunfel, Morrow, and Tillman, which is probably what the Orioles want.
Tony Clark is a good idea if for no other reason than he’ll keep Jeff Clement in the minors. They have to have at least one lefty on the bench. Somebody has to pinch hit for Betancourt and Lopez. Besides, how many games next year will both Sexson and Vidro will be healthy and producing at the same time?
#24– fwiw, I think both Bavasi and Mac’s videos are still up on the Mariners page
20- never said he was getting it, I read that his agent and he were seeking it…
There’s no way Bavasi doesn’t understand Pythagorean records.
There is. And even if he did, that’s not even the issue — it’s that they’re looking at last year’s and (as Steve Nelson extrapolates) seeing only progress ahead, improving on that record, and not looking at where the team might be next year in a realistic way.
It’s like a lot of the things we argue about: I don’t value the “role” thing nearly as highly as they do, but that doesn’t mean I don’t understand what they’re looking for in a “proven middle-of-the-order hitter”
I know. They are getting rid of Sexson, and need someone else who can stand in the middle of the back row in the team picture.
Sori just avoided arbitration with the Braves by signing a 2/9M deal.
Slightly OT, but [deleted, slightly ot]
28-Really? You think there’s a possibility that the GM of a major league ballclub doesn’t understand that when your team scores fewer runs than it allows they are generally a losing ballclub, and exceptions to this are not a repeatable skill? Again, it’s possible, but it sure doesn’t seem likely.
Still, I’ll grant you that it’s beside the point. And I’ll again repeat my point. That he has an 88-win ballclub and that he sees progress is what Bavasi is saying in a press conference to an assemblage of reporters. He’s selling his product for 2008. He could absolutely know that the Mariners were fantastically lucky to contend last year and that there’s no reasonable way they’re going to be as good or better this year without the same degree of luck, but he simply can’t say that. That’s not how you sell your product.
Tony Clark would be signed to play right field
Tony Clark, in a career in the majors dating back to ‘95, has appeared as an outfielder once.
Obviously, Clark is no long-term solution…however, could he really be much worse at the plate than Sexson was last year?
30: In more ways than one, I would have to agree on poor Joe Kennedy…rest his soul.
“We feel we have to make a move — one more move.”
Please don’t get desparate, Bill. That leads to trades like Soriano-HoRam.
You’ve got to know when to walk away, and know when to run!
I think the team knows what Pythag is and they know very well how the team stacked up against it. It’s been written up enough that they would have to be completely ignoring local coverage to not be aware of it.
If pressed about Pythag, though, I suspect they would opine that Pythag is used by many fans and observers in a heavy-handed and simplistic fashion. They might respond that it’s most important to understand why a team’s record deviated from the Pythag, since that analysis gives insight into team strengths and weaknesses. And, in that context they likely would consider that the team’s Pythag record affirms both their overall emphasis on the player character and experience and their sense that upgrading the starting rotation is the most pressing need facing the team.
*****
If you assume that all factors that cause a deviation from Pythag are outside of a team’s control, you will obtain different conclusions than if you assume otherwise. Since the Mariners believe that the whole of a well-constructed team is greater than the sum of the parts, the Mariners should have little difficulty seeing Pythag as a support for their philosophy, not refutation.
Tony Clark, in a career in the majors dating back to ‘95, has appeared as an outfielder once.
Apologies, should have thrown a sarcasm tag in there.
Is that somewhere in between perusing and pursuing? or is it more like persuading? i.e. persuading you that they are “trying.” That would be the M’s M.O.–”trying” to land a big offseason move. haha. In this case though it would seem better that they fail as usual though.
The thing that stuck out to me was the comment about getting “from 88 wins” to where they want to be. Clearly, they don’t see last season’s performance as a fluke, and think that any addition they make will add on to that — rather than a .500 team that is unlikely to compete for a playoff spot next year.
You’ve trained me well. That was my immediate thought!
Sexson’s played more than 100 games in LF. Doesn’t that qualify him as a veteran LF? Similarly, Ibañez has more than 100 games in RF.
So, if Jones is traded the solution is simple. Sexson goes to LF. Ibañez plays RF. Clark at 1B. With the added benefit of getting Ibañez out of the cavernous Safeco left field!!!! Jarrod Washburn thanks you.
#39: my sarcasm tags got deleted!!
They weren’t needed.
Without any careful analysis, it seems that a team with a few strong relievers could help us win close games and make us lose some ugly ones. I still agree that 88 wins were a result of luck, but I wouldn’t we surprised to see the team outperform the Pythag again but by a smaller margin.
31- Didn’t Billy Beane say something very similar about not trading away the future to end up with mediocrity now? The context was probably different, but 1) He essentially proclaimed he’s punting competitiveness for this year, and hasn’t been fired, and 2) Isn’t this exactly the position the Mariners are in?
31- Didn’t Billy Beane say something very similar about not trading away the future to end up with mediocrity now? The context was probably different, but 1) He essentially proclaimed he’s punting competitiveness for this year, and hasn’t been fired, and 2) Isn’t this exactly the position the Mariners are in?
35-I’ve seen some theories bandied about that types of pitching (having a really unbalanced rotation with a couple of good guys at one end and scrubs at the other) or having an extremely solid bullpen will enable a team to outperform its Pythag record, but I’ve yet to see anything remotely conclusive. It’s worrisome to think the M’s could be relying on this, but maybe they have evidence I haven’t seen published. Thinking that they beat the Pythagorean expectation because of veteran grit and experience, well–I mean, I’m sure on-field baseball men might subscribe to that kind of magical thinking, but I doubt a front office would. It seems more likely that the simple answer is the correct one here: they’re projecting Sexson, Lopez, and maybe Betancourt will all improve offensively year-over-year.
My worry is not that they don’t understand these things and that’s why they’re presenting themselves as an 88 win team that just needs a push to get over the hump, it’s that they understand them perfectly well, and they’re using this simplistic view to sell a really bad trade that’s about to go down. If your goal is to put bodies in seats next year, you don’t bother with the stats crew that knows that Jones for Bedard is a bad idea. You tell people you had a nearly-contending team and this ace pitcher is going to put you over the hump, so come on out and see the kids play.
You’re forgetting:
I’ll take Clark on the bench. I mean, isn’t he really just another Ben Broussard? As far as power lefties off the bench, it seems to me it’d be a good idea to sign him. It’s not like we’re promising a starting job to him. I guess I don’t see why this is any kind of a problem.
Concerning Bavasi and pythags, maybe he’s looking at last year’s and thinking they’re skewed by roughly 15 starts between Feierabend and Weaver (i think that’s an abuse of pythags but maybe Bavasi doesn’t)….
Here’s the problem with Clark: if the M’s carry 9 starters + Bloomquist, Burke, and Cairo (as they are supposedly planning), you’re up to 12 hitters, of which only Burke can hit at all. What do you want out of the last bench slot you’ve got available, assuming McLaren goes into the season carrying 12 pitchers?
Clark hasn’t been a useful batter at all in two years. What contribution does he make to the team?
He gets enough at-bats at DH so Vidro’s option for 2009 doesn’t vest.
wasn’t Tony Clark’s little brother a Husky? That must count towards being a hometown guy …
Yes. I had an Econ class with Greg Clark at UW.
Hasn’t Clark been through the Wars? He’s be perfect to convert to a reliever.
Here’s the problem with Clark: if the M’s carry 9 starters + Bloomquist, Burke, and Cairo (as they are supposedly planning), you’re up to 12 hitters, of which only Burke can hit at all. What do you want out of the last bench slot you’ve got available, assuming McLaren goes into the season carrying 12 pitchers?
I may be straying from the question a bit, but as long as they’re dead set on a bench that generally can’t hit, I’d feel more comfortable having 3 catchers…preferably one of whom can bat left-handed. I know that could make for a glut of position players, but really — how many bad relievers DO you need in your bullpen?
I read Bavasi’s comments re 88 wins completely differently. He is discussing the difficulty in getting more than 88 wins, which could certainly mean that he knows the team overachieved, and thus will need to add a lot of talent to improve from 88 wins to being a playoff-caliber team.
53 – the M’s only have one bad reliever, and that’s hopefully HoRam.
Bavasi said at the end of last season that if Sexson had had an average year, that would have been 5 more wins and they would have been in great shape. You swap out Weaver for Silva and there’s so much improvement you barely need to factor in the loss of Guillen. At least that’s what I figure they’re thinking.
Sexson goes to LF. Ibañez plays RF…
What’s the record for triples in a game?
Pentland and Elia sat down together in the off-season and tortured themselves by watching Sexson’s 2007 ABs.
apparently their hope is that Uncle Lee will fix everything.
oh, and Bedard is not a happy camper.
(which some say is his normal state of mind)
59 – I am hoping that quote about Triunfel being off limits is true. Just the three of those guys for Bedard is a complete steal for the Orioles.
#45: I think they truly believe that the team performing above its Pythag was not an aberration. The Mariners over the years have been very clear that they believe that “chemistry” is an important part of performance and that if you find the right blend of players with “character” that team will play greater than the sum of its parts.
I think the Mariners FO believes that:
- the team’s performance prior to the late season collapse was indicative of the true capabilities of the team; i.e., that the team is built to beat Pythag and that is sustainable and repeatable.
- had the team had better performance in the starting rotation the late season collapse in 2007 would not have occurred and the Mariners would have been in the playoffs with well over 90 wins.
- in light of the above if they fix the rotation they are right in the hunt for a division title. Thus the willingness to move Jones and significant other talent to fix the last hole keeping them from winning the West.
The best we can hope for is that Baltimore is too dumb to take advantage of the M’s.
I’d say, based on recent history, there is a good chance of that being the case.
If the M’s make the Bedard trade, all five pieces of the starting rotation would be guaranteed in place. There won’t be any auditions for the 5th spot. And Brandon Morrow would not be thrown into the rotation.
Any chance that Morrow could be sent to Tacoma to learn to be a starter?
Could acquiring Bedard actually help Morrow’s development?
Would the M’s actually do this? Or will Morrow be in the pen – again? (if Bedard is acquired)
How on earth is Ichiro supposed to cover 2 (or 3 if Jones is traded) outfield spots, run out his infield hits to keep his average up and steal 60-80 bases?
From all hints from McLaren and Bavasi, Morrow (if he’s still with the team) will be with Seattle and only be with Tacoma for rehab. No matter what happens.
So, ESPN.com finally is mentioning Bedard to Seattle in their little insider teaser. I refuse to pay for the service, so no idea what their reasoning is.
One of the things that has kept me optimistic about this whole thing is ESPN hasn’t touched it at all. If a trade were as close as we thought it was a couple weeks ago, you’d think they’d have said SOMETHING, right?
Not that they always get it right, but they have enough sources, and it’s of enough national interest that I figured we’d have seen something.
The espn blurb is just quoting the Baltimore Sun. Nothing new. I still do not understand Bavasi’s reasoning. Put two outfielders that can run next to Ichiro and watch the pitchers improve. Put in a 1st baseman that can field the position and watch the infield defense improve. Put in a great starting pitcher with a mediocre defense and offense and watch him have a meltdown.
When does the recent Seattle-Baltimore trade get announced?