22 Things I Believe About This Trade
1. Erik Bedard is awesome - one of the five best pitchers in the American League.
2. Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez are both candidates for the 2008 AL Cy Young Award.
3. Two great pitchers and mediocre everything else is not a formula for consistent success.
4. The Mariners are going to miss Adam Jones. Badly.
5. The Mariners right fielder in 2008 is going to suck.
6. The Mariners outfield defense is going to suck.
7. In 2009, we’re going to be hunting for two new corner outfielders.
8. The Angels are still the most likely team in baseball to win their division.
9. The Mariners improved themselves by, at most, 2-3 wins in 2008 with this deal.
10. If Erik Bedard isn’t healthy all year, we’ll be analyzing the new GM in 10 months.
11. The Mariners wouldn’t have made this trade if they understood how to value defense.
12. I will run out of analogies for this trade before spring training starts.
13. The total amount of talent given up will rival only the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002.
14. The biggest loser in this deal will be Jarrod Washburn.
15. This trade cements the fact that Brandon Morrow will never start a game for the M’s.
16. The idea that the M’s valued Morrow over Jones is so ridiculous, I can’t even fathom it.
17. The Mariners are now paying Horacio $2.75 million to fight for the role of long reliever.
18. In July, the M’s will be talking about trading for a veteran relieve to improve the ‘pen.
19. Geoff Baker and I will never agree on any of this.
20. Jeff Sullivan and I will agree on all of this.
21. I won’t care much over losing Chris Tillman. I will care deeply over losing Carlos Triunfel.
22. The M’s have, once again, taken a bad path to a good goal. It will, once again, not work.
Any picks for our new right fielder? Wilkerson, Gonzalez, Lofton?
Man, Geoff Jenkins would have been a good signing.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:35 pmSuch predictionary virility! We await your next quatrain with bated breath, o Nostradavemus.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:38 pmPlease tell me that #21 is just you guessing Dave and that Bavasi really didn’t trade Triunfel. Please…
January 27th, 2008 at 7:39 pmDare I say this trade has been met with disdain?
January 27th, 2008 at 7:42 pmI don’t think the M’s value Morrow over Jones, I think the O’s valued Jones over Morrow. I would do the same, but I still think the M’s get away with murder if it’s essentially Jones for Bedard. Bedard will put the M’s over the hump for years to come, and who knows what Jones will do. All we know about him is he had good PCL numbers, along with the rest of the universe, and average MLB numbers. He’s young, and there is upside, but who knows?
On the M’s side of this, the best commment was #10. Injuries. Bedard is Jamie Moyer, plus power and more talent. But I worry about that power from a lefty of his type. He tends to get injured for short periods of time.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:43 pmThe pessimism is so thick right now. At least this makes us better for the next 2 years. We don’t know that we won’t be able to sign Bedard to an extension. We’ll see if his stance on testing the market doesn’t change when he plays for an organization that treats him better and when he plays for a winner. It would be nice to see a little optimism for once. It’s done, let’s move on and not always assume the absolute worst.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:44 pmBedard is Jamie Moyer?
That might be the worst comparison in the history of mankind.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:45 pmWhat a horrible trade. Ichiro must be regretting signing long term at this point. Can you point me to a good Oakland A’s blog? I think it’s time to start following/rooting for a new team.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:45 pmTriunfel’s involved???
January 27th, 2008 at 7:45 pm#7
Bill Bavasi is Theo Epstein.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:48 pmWow at those calling this a horrible trade. We got BEDARD, folks! A horrible trade would’ve been AJ for Javier Vazquez.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:49 pmQuestion about Bedard’s numbers.
He’s not a big groundball guy, so he should be saved a bit by Safeco (pending the outfield defense isn’t horrible, too bad it will), but he had a 77% LOB rate last year. Does he miss enough bats to sustain where he’s at right now, or is he due for a bit of a regression?
How does the O’s defense the last few years (I know they’ve had a lot of Markakis, Patterson, and Payton, little bit of Conine and Gibbons thrown in), compared to what the M’s will throw out there?
No sense looking back, as there’s too much stirring around to say it’s gonna be a team without Bedard, so we might as well analyze what we’re gonna have.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:49 pmThe pessimism is so thick right now.
For years, the ignorant masses have called us pessimists who hate the organization. Through it all, we’ve been right about almost everything, and the team has failed spectacularly.
You’d think you might eventually decide that we know what we’re talking about, and that it’s not pessimism to be able to identify a bad move when it happens.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:50 pmIf Bavasi gave up Jones, Tillman, Triunfel, and Sherrill, he is the biggest dupe in the history of dupes.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:50 pmWhat a horrible trade. Ichiro must be regretting signing long term at this point. Can you point me to a good Oakland A’s blog? I think it’s time to start following/rooting for a new team.
My new teams are the Rays and the Tigers. Two teams going in different directions, but I agree with many of their choices.
The Rays are loading up on young talent, have done some good work to sure up their defense and pitching, and look to be stellar in a few years (pending they get a good return for Kazmir and/or Crawford when time comes).
The Tigers went balls out, kind of like the M’s, but actually have a shot to do what they’ve told themselves they are going to do.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:52 pmI was so happy when I got in the car about 30 minutes ago, and found my radio playing the sunday hot stove show, and Glasgow talking about Adam Jones teling everyoine he’d been told to report for a physical.
crap.
just how does a pitcher giving you maybe 4-5 more wins compensate for no offense or defense?
January 27th, 2008 at 7:54 pmThe reason i love this trade so much is number 2. this will be a 1-2 punch to compete with sabathia-carmona, beckett-dice-k, and others.
I also am confused on why everyone seems to think that bedard wont help us in the long run as well. his numbers have been on the rise ever since his rookie year, and we are catching him just at the right time.
And on Jones. I agree that he is a good talent,but i honestly dont see him ever being any better than a torii hunter, and thats a generous comparison. I would take bedard any day.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:54 pm1. No trade confirmed.
2. to Mr. Egaas: you are right about Bedard. But his strength is K’s. He paints the outside corner and jams inside, just like Moyer, but with heat.
He is a strikeout machine, and if he’s an M, I’ll be making my trips over the mountains more often to watch him set down AL West opponents. Fans will love the guy.
Bedard + Felix = unbeatable in a 3 game series.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:54 pmJones may very well be a better hitter than Torri Huinter right now.
January 27th, 2008 at 7:58 pmYou guys are out of control. And this is all without knowing for sure who the other players are. Most are upset even if it were just Jones. 6 yrs of Jones or guaranteed two years of Bedard is an easy choice for me. The sky is falling mentality is getting real old. Especially when you just traded for a bona fide ace. One of the top 5 pitchers in the entire AL and you are assured you have him for two years…possibly more. For a big giant maybe. Jones is a very nice prospect, but he is still just that…a prospect. With no pitch recognition by the way. Big win for the M’s in this deal as long as Clement isnt included. My summer nights just got a lot later on the East Coast due to this trade.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:00 pmNew rule - if you write that Jones is “just a prospect”, we’re going to send a swarm of killer bees to your house.
Don’t be an idiot. Jones is not just a prospect.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:02 pm#20– Jones is not a prospect. He is your starting right fielder.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:03 pmDave - could you give a brief explanation of why Bedard only provides 2-3 wins?
I think it’s needed for some…
January 27th, 2008 at 8:03 pmI spelled everything wrong.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:03 pmBlowers thinks that this would immediately make them a contender, and with only the Angels to compete with, the M’s would be on their way.
sigh.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:05 pmBedard over Ramirez/Morrow/Rowland-Smith/whoever: +5 wins.
Wilkerson/Lofton/Green/whoever over Jones: -2 wins.
O’Flaherty over Sherrill: -.5 wins.
Ramirez/Rhodes/whoever over O’Flaherty: -.5 wins.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:05 pm20
It’s like trading your wife and kids for a fling with [some hot temptress]– you’re going to be at square one when it’s over with.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:07 pmLike when the Mets traded Lastings Milledge, they were not trading a prospect, but their starting right fielder (rightfully in 2007, as well). Jones will probably be significantly better, but that trade still ranks worse than this one.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:10 pmWhy does everyone think the Angels are such a slam dunk? Their rotation is now worse than the M’s, the bullpen is probably not as good, Guerrero is always a big injury risk (remember the playoffs last year?), their outfield will have a ton of lil Sarge/Garrett Anderson/Torii Hunter OBP goodness, their defense will stink, they had a number of players over their head last year (Reggie Freaking Willits) and they are counting on a lot of uncertainty at the infield corners. Oh, and they lack depth. I’ll be surprised if they win 90 games.
We don’t know who is in this deal, so it’s a little hard to pass judgement. If it is truly Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, and negligible, then bully for the M’s. That’s a steal compared to the packages bouncing around for a year of Santana. Jones might turn into Chet Lemon or even Lou Brock, but he might never learn to hit an MLB curve ball, either. He sure hasn’t yet. And Chris Tillman is like banking on a tech stock, high risk/high return. Trading Sherrill at peak value is a shrewd move, especially when it is to a team that needs a lefty specialist like a third nut.
#13 - You’ve been right about almost everything? Wow! That’s a heck of an assessment. Actually, I think the biggest issue with your analysis on this site is an inability to recognize that there is a lot of uncertainty in any business proposition, including baseball. Just to grab an obvious example, don’t make me remind you how much you hated drafting Jones in the first place.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:10 pmDave you are right, calling him ” just a prospect ” was too vague. I also called him a very nice prospect, you left that part out though. I guess calling me an idiot is easier though. I have concerns about his pitch recognition and his propensity to K…a lot. He is a very nice prospect. But its not like Longoria, Bruce or Gordon were just traded. At least you dont have to watching him flailing away at sliders in the left hand hitters batters box this year.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:11 pm20- “Aces” are overrated. All that matters in run prevention, and defense is a part of that. The M’s defense is going to make their starters look bad, maybe not quite to the degree that TB’s defense hindered their pitchers in 2007, but it’ll be ugly to watch.
If anything, there are more “Maybes” attached to Bedard. Bedard has never reached 200 IP and only started 30+ games once. This team has zero picthing or hitting depth. All it takes is one significant injury to ruin the season and this trade.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:12 pmGiven that the M’s aren’t winning anything in the near term - or the far term for that matter - I think I’d have rather watched Jones for 6 years than Bedard for 2. The sad reality is that they would have missed the playoffs with Jones and without Bedard - and now they’re going to do the same thing with the situation reversed. Plus, MLB Extra Innings will allow me to still watch Jones develop if I’d like to.
I think the real question is how much more is it going to take for you guys to start rooting for a real major league franchise?
January 27th, 2008 at 8:12 pm#13: Snelling and Fruto for Vidro?
January 27th, 2008 at 8:12 pmHe didn’t call you an idiot. He said “don’t be an idiot.”
January 27th, 2008 at 8:13 pm#27
I disagree. We are talking two guaranteed years. And probably 2 guaranteed years of cy caliber type pitching. Not too mention the strong possibility of him re-signing long term in SEA. VS the potential of 6 very good years of Jones. Again, no guarantees.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:14 pm[yep, we're fans - now go away]
January 27th, 2008 at 8:15 pm35: I must be missing the “strong possibility” of Bedard re-upping with the M’s. Everything I’ve seen or heard has him wanting to test the FA market after ‘09, and he’d be rather silly not to.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:19 pmBedard posted those great numbers with Tejeda and Mora on the left side of his former infield. You dont think pitching in Safeco and being out of the AL EAST will jump his numbers even moreso?
#31, I will not engage in any debate that has you taking the stance that Bedard has more maybes attached to him than Adam Jones.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:19 pmBedard over Ramirez: +9 wins (Bedard was an 8 win player in 26 starts, this assumes he misses a couple again)
Adam Jones will likely be at best a 4 win player next year. He’s still got some learning to do, both at the plate and in the field. Fire in a replacement level player or Wlad, and you are maybe 4 to the worse. Replace him with Lofton (a 4+ win player last year) or the guy you get for Washburn (you KNOW that’s the next deal coming), and maybe you are close to even here.
Sherrill to RRS? .5? RRS to O’Flaherty? Are you kidding me? Hell, the M’s got way more than they should have for a scrap heap pickup. Trade him before he ends up back there.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:21 pm#37. “Strong possibility” maybe was aggresive, but I would think the M’s got a ballpark for Bedards potential extentsion dollars before they made the deal.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:22 pmI will not engage in any debate that has you taking the stance that Bedard has more maybes attached to him than Adam Jones.
Why not? Bedard is extremely injury prone. Players that have as much success as Jones in AA and AAA at such a young age usually become at least good major league players.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:23 pmCan people please stop suggesting Jones won’t be good because he hasn’t proved anything in the majors?
First two seasons:
Jones: 139 AB, .230/.267/.353
Player X: 196 AB, .224/.268/.352
Thank goodness Seattle was smart in 1996…
January 27th, 2008 at 8:24 pmEver heard of regression to the mean, Matt? The 2008 Mariners aren’t replacing the 2007 Horacio Ramirez with the 2007 Erik Bedard. Also, your definition of replacement level is way, way too low.
If you think Bedard is worth 9 wins to the 2008 Mariners, then I don’t care what you think.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:25 pmpleaseohplease.
“There are signs the deal is getting closer — such as Jones telling reporters that he’s headed to Baltimore for a physical — but late word Sunday night is there’s still some internal debate in Baltimore over the deal. Club owner Peter Angelos is famous for nixing deals involving his best players.”
January 27th, 2008 at 8:26 pm40: I obviously don’t have the faith which you seem to have that Bavasi would only make this deal with a rough estimate towards what Bedard would re-sign for. I’d lean more towards him just making the deal and hoping to woo Bedard over the next two years.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:26 pmBedard 2007 (pitching in Camden Yards): 221 K, 57 BB. Enough said. Don’t know why there is so much gnashing of teeth over Adam Jones. Put aside the emotion and look at it. Bedard for Jones is a steal for the M’s. If Truinfel is in there it’s more balanced. If Truinfel and Clement is in there it’s tipping - but don’t know why the O’s would be hung up on Clement when they just drafted Wieters, the best C prospect in baseball.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:27 pm41,
60 starts the past two seasons. I’ll take that over all the maybes that Jones has that are inherent with any prospect, nevermind one that has the holes Jones has.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:27 pmPut aside the emotion and look at it.
Yeah, uh…. there have been some monster posts on this topic on USSM already. I don’t know if you missed it or what, but it’s not as if this is an unexamined issue.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:31 pm[and goodbye]
January 27th, 2008 at 8:31 pmSwarm of bees, pete, swarm of bees. Your fears about Jones are ill founded and based out of a poor understanding of player valuation.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:31 pmI approve of the swarm of bees solution.
I am SO TIRED of people who think they are sharing some unique, undiscovered information by pointing out that not every young player lives up to their potential.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:34 pmDMZ - I’m new. Point taken. Will watch the trade unfold or not.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:35 pmA few Hardball Times stats on Bedard:
FIP of 3.33 (analogous to ERA), 3rd in the AL and only .17 over his actual ERA (which indicates that overall he probably was that good).
30% K rate, which was the highest in baseball.
He does give up the gopher (13% of his OF flies were HRs) but, as has been noted, Safeco should help with that. He’s actually slightly a groundball pitcher (GB/LD/FB rates were 48/17/35 vs league averages of 43/19/38), which is too bad considering that Jose Lopez and Richie Sexson are awful.
One negative-rebound note: he gave up about half as many runs as the average pitcher gave up on ground balls last year, which might have been due to a good Orioles infield (teammate Jeremy Guthrie also had a super-low rate), but doesn’t tend to be a sustainable ability from one season to the next.
Overall, though, I think Bedard for Jones and Sherrill and some prospects is not quite as terrible a move as Dave Cameron makes it out to be. I think it’s a lot closer to “trade a strength for a huge weakness” than it is a “win right NOW and damn the future” move. I doubt it’s going to get anywhere near the Colon trade (in fact, I think that’s a laughable comparison), and I think that worrying that the M’s may BE WASTING HORACIO RAMIREZ OH NO is more than a little bit silly.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:39 pm#31 - Aces are overrated? The M’s just got an 8 or 9 win player (yeah, I know, he could get injured. So could Jones) who is probably only going to make $6 or 7 mil next year. That’s an incredible value for the franchise.
#32 - The M’s rotation next year will be Bedard, Felix, Batista, Silva, and Washburn. How many teams in the game can top that? Yeah, this might be still around an 88-90 win team, but that might be enough in a pretty tough and even AL next year.
Boston and NY are starting to decline. TB is still on the way up. The A’s and the Rangers are AT LEAST two years away. The Angels are good, not great. I absolutely love the idea to make a run right now.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:40 pmWithout knowing the final details, I don’t want to compare it to any particular deal, but at the high level, the Colon analogy is quite apt — it’s a team paying a huge price in what some would call unproven prospects for a starter they expected would take them to the playoffs, though it was even at the time clear that it was a longshot.
The biggest difference, as Dave pointed out to me, is you get two years of Bedard. But in terms of what the Orioles would net, we’ll see, but it’s already a haul.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:43 pmI just heard about this and everyone that is a Mariners fan better pray that they have a long term offer for Bedard or this trade was for nothing!
January 27th, 2008 at 8:46 pm#13. Right about most everything? Dave, I assume you are spewing hyperbole, yes? Because as much as I enjoy your work I read here for years that Jones was an awful pick that wouldn’t amount to a hill of beans.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:50 pmI don’t agree with #20.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:50 pmI would like this trade if we get Jones back when Bedard dosen’t re-sign in 2 years.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:52 pmI apologize if I said anything that you think was an attack to the person. I thought the Colon analogy was laughable, not that David Cameron himself is laughable. If that wasn’t clear, I am making it clear now. I think the Colon trade is a very bad comparison because I just don’t see it as very likely that Jones and Sherrill and co. will get anywhere near Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore. I mean, Adam Jones is a nice prospect, but…
I also think that it’s not really correct to just look at it as 2 years of Bedard. It’s 2 years of Bedard with a strong possibility of re-signing him. And if he doesn’t sign and leaves in a couple years, he’ll almost certainly be good enough to net a draft pick, right?
January 27th, 2008 at 8:52 pmIf the following gets edited or deleted, I pray to the baseball Gods that at least a few people I’m aiming it at see it.
I’m officially sick and damn tired of people calling those of us who oppose this trade one of the following: Negative, pessimistic, not real fans, etc.
To those of you who have, I’d like to offer you my ass for a firm long kiss.
I’ve probably been to more home games, watched more away games on TV/mlb.tv/gamecast/my phone while on a date than 95% of the people who post here, possibly authors included.
I don’t claim to know more about how to analyze talent than anyone, because my skills there are admittedly moderate. But I take great exception to people calling out our fanhood because we, heaven forbid, want our team to make what we see as smart moves. It’s not only not true, but an ignorant insult.
I’m generally don’t name call, or speak this way. So, apologies to those who didn’t need to see this. Time to go take a cold shower.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:52 pmActually, “have you ever heard of regression to the mean, Matt” is precisely the definition of ad hominum:
“An ad hominem argument, also known as argumentum ad hominem (Latin: “argument to the man”, “argument against the man”) consists of replying to an argument or factual claim by attacking or appealing to a characteristic or belief of the person making the argument or claim, rather than by addressing the substance of the argument or producing evidence against the claim. The process of proving or disproving the claim is thereby subverted, and the argumentum ad hominem works to change the subject.”
Listen, fellas, I’m not trying to claim that the M’s have taken a big risk here. I’m just making the point that the AL is much more up for grabs than you all are giving it credit for, and that Bedard is a hell of a pitcher. Furthermore, Adam Jones could very easily fall into the Jacque Jones/Jose Cruz Jr./Geoff Jenkins level of second tier outfielders. A good player, not a guy you’d jump off the Aurora Bridge when the team trades.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:53 pmSeriously, if you think Erik Bedard is a nine win player, no one should care what you think. It’s not ad hominem to point out that your math sucks. For that to be true, with replacement level set at 6.00 RA, you’d have to be projecting Bedard to post a 1.93 RA in 200 innings. 1.93 RA - not ERA. A nine win pitcher would have to post something like a 1.50 ERA.
Either your replacement level is way too low (based on calling Jones a 4 win player, it is) or you’re so overly optimistic about Bedard that your opinion is invalid. I’m going with A.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:54 pmI think #11 is the most telling critique of this trade. I am still amazed that the M’s will allow Ibanez to play LF.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:55 pmWhere does “strong possibility” come from? Right now all anyone can say is “maybe.”
January 27th, 2008 at 8:55 pmOkay, so call me ignorant (I’m new to posting here - I can take it!)
What would have to happen for this trade to not end up sucking? I realize that it will be impossible to fully judge until we see just what Jones ends up doing in his 6 years or whatever under club control…but hypothetically, what kind of performance from the Mariners would justify this trade?
Making the playoffs in ‘08? ‘09? Would they have to do well in the playoffs?
I just want some kind of idea of what you guys are hoping for in a best-case scenario.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:56 pmChurchill at PI is hearing Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio.
Really no words need to be said.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:57 pmThe tone of this thread needs to turn around in a hurry.
If you want to disagree with the authors’ evaluation of the trade, that’s fine, but you don’t get to come here and act like a jerk while you do it.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:57 pmAnd everything Bedard’s said that I know of says he wants to become a free agent (and why wouldn’t he?). I can’t think of any pitcher in recent years facing the potential pay off that Bedard is not going to free agency.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:58 pm#11 is quite frankly a curious argument for a stat guy to put forward. Defense has its value. It tends to be grossly overrated by non-statheads. The M’s outfield was not very good last year anyway. Anyway, isn’t Wladimir Balentin about ready by now?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:00 pm#62 — The best years of Jacques Jones and Geoff Jenkins were pretty good, and AJ should be at least that good. The point isn’t that Bedard isn’t good, its that RF for the M’s is going to be bad (offensively and defensively) and expensive. Jones was good and cheap.
If the M’s had given up players not expected to contribute in 2008 I would be enthusiastic about this trade, but I don’t know where they will find someone who will perform as well as AJ most likely would have.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:01 pmChurchill at PI is hearing Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio.
At least it’s not Triunfel, but if they are getting Butler and the Mick, we’d better get Luke Scott back.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:03 pmSadly, I thought I’d jump onto USSMariner for my once-a-weekend check of what usually consists of no updated posts. I expect to see the same post from Friday up on Sunday afternoon, and usually close my browser as quickly as I opened it.
You can imagine, then, how much more poignantly one feels the iron skillet to the face when one least expects it.
For 2 weeks now, I’ve been saying - the closer we are to Spring Training, the better off we are. People will start reporting here in short order, and not too many deals get made that close to the season, right? Maybe Bavasi’s bravado on being sure he could get something done was just talk . . .well shit.
I will look forward to 2 starts in every trip through the rotation now. I will pray the days I have lined up for Spring Training will include some quality Bedard time. But, just the same, I will curse the name of Bill Bavasi each time our inept corner outfielders watch a ball that Adam Jones would have made a nice play on sail past them for a double. When they complain about an anemic offense, a line-up lacking speed, or wish for a true “ignitor” to get a rally going, I’ll mumble about AJ under my breath. I’ll want him to punish us each time Baltimore faces us, but just to the point of keeping the decision fresh in our collective memory, but not quite enough to lose us the game.
I want this team to win, and am saddened that it has made that goal more difficult.
I only gain hope from knowing that, if things go as expected, Bavasi will be gone, and Geoff Baker will deepen his education. And there is the hope of every true baseball fan - that the team will inexplicably do what it should not be able to and give us some games worth watching that also mean something late in the season . . that and for like 4 or 5 Angels’ players to get injured out of the box.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:03 pmThe big question now is who plays right field. Of all the free agents Lofton, Patterson, Wilkerson, etc. Who is the strongest defensively?
Also, have the mariners been involved any any trade talks for an RF? (preemptively)
January 27th, 2008 at 9:04 pmPatterson would be an interesting fit. Lets not forget about his numbers from a couple years back..
January 27th, 2008 at 9:07 pmRF? Stick a young guy out there. Any defensive guys in the system. M’s can win some 3-2 games…
January 27th, 2008 at 9:09 pmI resent that. There are 4,663 posts here since 4/11/2003, many of them on weekends.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:09 pmI think the Colon trade is a very bad comparison because I just don’t see it as very likely that Jones and Sherrill and co. will get anywhere near Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore. I mean, Adam Jones is a nice prospect, but…
Well, Jones has a pretty darned good chance of being at least as good as Sizemore, who is, at best, an average defender in center and who currently sports a 3-year average OPS of .865. Jones profiles as a very good defender (much better than Sizemore) and likely has the power to make up for his trailing of walk ability to near or better the OPS%. As for Phillips and Lee, it certainly depends on if Triunfel is included or not, but Tillman could definitely be Lee’s equal or better (not that hard at this point), and Triunfel, if included, could be better than all involved. I’ll wait until I see the final package, but it’s not like our prospects pale in comparison to those that Cleveland got in that deal. In fact, our minor league system is fairly robust right now. If Bavasi could only look out for the future of the club over his own future in Seattle, I think this team could be pretty darned special in a couple of years. And THEN they’d be in a good position to deal some youth for stud talent. As it stands, most of the talent in our system is very young which makes them high-risk in the eyes of the front office. In two years, it may be possible that we could have netted a Bedard-like pitcher for any of the ’spects alone. I think you’re doing our minor league system a great disservice by saying the Colon deal comp is laughable.
Personally, I think the Morrow-is-untouchable mantra may have cost us BIGTIME in the end. I’d much rather have dealt Morrow than lose a guy like Triunfel. But whatever. I’ll wait till the final verdict to say any more.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:10 pmWell, I guess on the bright side, we won’t have to pull out our hair when Mac sits Jones because “he’s just a kid and needs to (fill in the blank with your favorite excuse).”
The M’s don’t value defense of youth. If Jones was a 32 year old average defender, this would be a pretty good trade for the M’s. But if Jones was a 32 year old average defender, the O’s wouldn’t have made it. Hmmm, we’re dumber than Baltimore. And they have Ace of Cakes too…
So, do you expect Morrow goes to Tacoma to work on starting, or (more likely) heads back to the pen and thus the M’s fullfill Dave’s prophecy of Morrow never starting for the Mariners?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:10 pmI can’t imagine that a Kenny Lofton would be that expensive at this point. Granted, you’re banking on Bavasi understanding that a guy like that still has value to a team, which I am not optimistic about, but I also am of the belief that you should evaluate each move a team makes irrespective of everything else.
Also, do the Mariners really need to worry all that much about cheap? It’s always good for a team to do things that make good economic sense, but these are not the Oakland A’s here. The Mariners do have some room to make mistakes with money and survive. That doesn’t make the Bedard trade a “good” one in and of itself, but it doesn’t make it the most horrible thing ever seen.
And I’m sorry, but I have to go back to that Horacio Ramirez comment (point #17). You guys have to understand sunk cost by now, right? It doesn’t *matter* whether or not Horacio Ramirez is making $2.75M a year or $27.5M a year. If he’s good enough to start, he should start; if he’s not, he should not. Period. Forget about the salary. That money is already gone and won’t come back by putting him into more situations where he’ll lose the team games as well as money.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:10 pmOK Dave. Easy now. I pulled the 9 wins off the Baseball Prospectus site. I’m sure you spend more time thinking about this than I do, but that doesn’t seem ridiculous that he could be nearly as valuable as Ichiro next year.
Maybe Adam Jones hits .300/.360/.480 next year, and plays stellar defense. But I think he’s got two more years of learning the game ahead of him before he becomes any type of star. And really, the way this team is currently structured, do you want to be planning for a run in 2009?
Derek - if you read what Bedard has been saying, it is basically that he’s pissed the Orioles haven’t offered him any security. Face it, if you played for Baltimore, you’d be late for the door, too.
If the M’s win something in the next two years, they’ll probably sign Bedard long-term. If they don’t, well, they’d probably be better off to trade him at the 2009 break for someone else’s top outfield prospect.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:11 pmThe point about HoRam is not that this trade makes him a worthless $2.75m reliever, it’s that the M’s this off-season set out on a course that wound up in this situation — it’s as much about the decision to take him to arbitration as anything.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:14 pmFor the optimists in the crowd (both of you!), here are Zips 15% optimistic on Bedard:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_baltimore_orioles/
ERA:2.23 W:18 L:3 IP:202 H:151 BB:54 K:231 ERA+:205
The M’s have a ton of money coming off the book in the next two years. It will be interesting to see if they can pay two #1s going forward.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:15 pmThe M’s can dump Ramimez at 1/6th of his salary. They should, like, tomorrow.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:15 pmSo you took Bedard 2007 and compared it to HoRam 2007, got 90 runs, and used it as a prediction of 2008?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:15 pmJust a moment to address a pet peeve - ad hominem means to focus on the arguer rather than the argument. If someone had called you ugly, slow, or had claimed that your eating habits made your judgment suspect, then these MIGHT BE ad hominem attacks. If one had said, because you are Jewish or Catholic or a Muslim, your take about baseball is incomplete - this would be ad hominem. But folks are saying the support you’ve used to make your arguments - the very claims you are making about Bedard’s worth to the team - are incorrect, probably based on a misunderstanding you have about the statistical issues involved. That’s not ad hominem, that’s the substantive response to your arguments.
I simply hate when people go around using logic terminology about which they have no clue. Lots of logic courses out there -heck you can even pull up some web material on the subject. I often find that people with no point or those who are clearly proven wrong erroneously claim an ad hominem fallacy. In the words of the immortal Inigo Montoya, “I do not think it means what you think it means.”
January 27th, 2008 at 9:15 pmAnd I’m sorry, but I have to go back to that Horacio Ramirez comment (point #17). You guys have to understand sunk cost by now, right? It doesn’t *matter* whether or not Horacio Ramirez is making $2.75M a year or $27.5M a year. If he’s good enough to start, he should start; if he’s not, he should not. Period. Forget about the salary. That money is already gone and won’t come back by putting him into more situations where he’ll lose the team games as well as money.
Doesn’t make the past decision a right one. The M’s should have offered arbitration to Jose Guillen and not to Horacio Ramirez. Guillen would have gotten a pick (he wasn’t going to stay, everybody in the business knew he would get paid), and Ramirez isn’t worth a 25 man roster spot in the AL. Probably, not even in the NL, but many of us would prefer if he were somebody else’s problem.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:15 pm[bees bees bees]
January 27th, 2008 at 9:16 pmI hope the Mariners can get something for HoRam. I’m sure that’s way too much to hope for.
Oh. And as much as I will miss Jones, it’ll be exciting to have a official top of the heap type ace now.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:17 pmMr. Egaas said:
“…Churchill at PI is hearing Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio…”
Steal for the M’s. They gave up nothing an org can’t replace quickly.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:17 pmIf the M’s win something in the next two years, they’ll probably sign Bedard long-term. If they don’t, well, they’d probably be better off to trade him at the 2009 break for someone else’s top outfield prospect.
- Huge if.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:18 pm- Once again that probably is ridiculous. It’s all conjecture. What if Boston, New York or one of the LA teams match Seattle’s offer?
I don’t follow. HoRam is a horrible player whether you give him arbitration or not. If the M’s were wrong to offer that (and yes, they probably were), that was a problem with offering HoRam arbitration, not with trading for Bedard.
If you’re saying that the M’s don’t seem to have a plan, well… if the current presidential administration has taught me anything, it’s that going back on a bad deal and tacitly admitting you made a mistake before is a whole hell of a lot better than following on a wrong course because gosh darn it it’s the course you plotted out last summer.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:18 pm[you really need to re-educate yourself on what ad hominem means]
January 27th, 2008 at 9:20 pmHoRam is about as valuable to the M’s as a guy named Horwath (some tard, who back in June stated that we should root for the M’s to fail) is to this discussion…I really like the M’s staff.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:21 pmThey gave up nothing an org can’t replace quickly
That’s just not true. I’m sorry. Explain to me how the team can quickly replace a prospect as highly-regarded as Adam Jones, please, because I can’t see how Bavasi could call up a team and say “hey, I just gave up the #5 prospect (or whatever BA ranks him) in a trade — can you give me #6 for some magic beans”.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:22 pm“I resent that. There are 4,663 posts here since 4/11/2003, many of them on weekends.”
I should have qualified my statement by saying, “offseason weekend posts.” But you will permit me some poetic license on reality to put the pain of this moment into words, no? C’mon Derek, we should be standing together at this time, not becoming divided. That’s just what THEY want us to do . . . We must stand together on this global war against stupid front office moves.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:22 pmYes! You’re right!
January 27th, 2008 at 9:25 pmI don’t see why Jones is highly regarded, as you say. Defense?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:26 pmThey gave up nothing an org can’t replace quickly.
Yeah, what did it take for Baltimore to get those pieces? Oh, just Erik Bedard.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:26 pmAnd really, the way this team is currently structured, do you want to be planning for a run in 2009?
Isn’t that kind of the point? The M’s are NEVER planning substantially for the future. They’re stuck in the mediocre middle, winning just enough games to lead them to believe a good move here or there could put them over the top, but never really being as close as they think they are. What that leads to is never being able to put together any kind of sustained run at true excellence.
Personally, I like the latter. It’s one of the reasons I’m a huge Seahawks fan. Right now, you know on any given year they could make a Super Bowl run. They’ve built through the draft and with young, cheap players. It’s why the Patriots have been successful.
The Mariners? They’re like the guy who spends all his disposable income and never saves any money for the long term. Sure, it’s fun today, and might even be fun for a year or two. But it can be a heck of a LOT MORE fun in 10 years if you’ll just take it in the shorts for 3 or 4.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:27 pm[bees bees bees]
January 27th, 2008 at 9:27 pmIf we get Luke Scott, I will be happier.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:28 pmWhile we’re discussing bad trades that have nothing to do with the Bedard move, how about Rey Quinones, Mike Trujillo, John Christenson, and Mike Brown for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen? Man, was that a bad on
93… one point I do have to give Cameron/DMZ is that the M’s really are not that close to the Angels. Yes, they only finished 7 games back. However, they did that while allowing more runs than they scored. If they stood pat, re-signed all their free agents, and performed exactly the way they did from last year to this one, they’d be more like to win 78 games than 88. I don’t think it’s wise to go into ‘08 making an honest effort to win the division, that is unless you also plan on bringing in a lot more than Erik Bedard to shore up a poor starting rotation and signing 2 or 3 more hitters to replace Guillen, Sexson, Lopez, and Vidro.
Given that Guillen is now one of the many names caught up in the Mitchell report, I don’t blame the M’s for not going after him. He had a pretty controversy-free season in 2007 but let’s not forget that this was Jose Guillen we are talking about. Given a manager who doesn’t mail it in every game a la Hargrove, he could well have one of those wonderful blow-ups that have defined his career up to this point.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:29 pmIf you don’t understand why Adam Jones is highly regarded, it’d be good for you to read up on him, either here (see that Future Forty link) or at Baseball America (or your prospect site of choice).
January 27th, 2008 at 9:29 pmsomeone please explain what “[bees,bees,bees]” is? thank you…
January 27th, 2008 at 9:30 pm105: Go read post 21.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:32 pmWe started 2007 without Adam Jones, and we’ll start 2008 without him either, but with Erik Bedard. We had George Sherril in 2007, but for much of the year, he was a LOOGY, so no matter how good he was, he won’t be sorely missed in the long run. So those make the trade a ‘win’ for 2008 and 2009.
But hey, if you don’t make that trade, you’re definitely going to lose your job after 2009, so why not? The Mariner’s as a team certainly weren’t going to get much better on their own, and two more years of 80-85 wins (and nowhere near the playoffs) wasn’t getting anyone re-upped.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:33 pmDerek - And, boy, does the Future Forty look sweet now, or what?
Have fun updating that, Dave..
January 27th, 2008 at 9:34 pm(weeping)
January 27th, 2008 at 9:36 pmI’d like to throw out the Coco Crisp plea at this point. I’d much rather get Crisp from Boston than sign any of the dreck left on the free agent market. Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green both have half-capacity throwing arms at this point, and neither can play center. Corey Patterson is probably going to make too much money over too long a period. Brad Wilkerson is far too injury prone to count on, and Reggie Sanders is even worse! That leaves Lofton, who isn’t an abysmal stopgap, and Crisp. I really like Crisp’s defense, so that’s the main reason I think I’d advocate him over Lofton.
I also really like the new button label that we have to press to enter our reply, lol.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:36 pmif you’d mentally/emotionally already known that Jones was sure to get traded, here’s a kick in the gut:
(courtesy Geoff Baker)
January 27th, 2008 at 9:37 pm“I spoke to John (McLaren) recently and I let him know that I want to be a Mariner for life. It’s the team that plucked me out of the independent league and so I’ll always have a spot in my heart for it and want to stay with the organization.” - George Sherril
Adam Jones: in 5 minor league seasons has an OPS of .830 … in the PCL. In admittedly limited action in 2 MLB seasons he has a .620 OPS.
Despite all the references and name dropping, why am I supposed to think the M’s gave up too much for their future ace? (if the deal even goes through)
He must be a good at fielding his position. That’s all I can think of.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:38 pm#110
Crisp is awesome but:
January 27th, 2008 at 9:38 pma) the Moose almost killed him.
b) Epstein would fleece Bavasi.
107 - Shrugging your shoulders at a GM making a crap shoot to save his job shouldn’t be acceptable to you.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:38 pmSo we’re not losing anything because Jones never started for the M’s and is just a prospect, George Sherrill is just a LOOGY, so he can’t be that valuable, everyone else involved is just a prospect and therefore not worth a lot, Erik Bedard is very obviously going to resign with the Mariners, the Angels are not as good as everyone says they are and the M’s are going to continue to outdo their pythag while adding nine wins with Bedard pitching.
Did I get it all?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:38 pmWhy is Washburn the biggest loser??
January 27th, 2008 at 9:39 pmThank you 86, I was about to make something like the very same post. I have to say that since this is my last year in Seattle and after that I’m moving to Ohio, I’m selfishly ok with this deal since it will likely make the team better next year and after that I can start cheering for the tribe. Honestly, my nearly irrational fascination with Ichiro is probably the only thing that keeps me a Mariners fan.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:39 pm111- This must be a kick in the nuts for Sherril then.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:40 pm112 - Nice use of small sample size analysis.
If you truly want an answer to your question, conversation around this topic is far from hard to find by searching the archives.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:43 pm116- I was wondering the same thing.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:43 pm119 - that’s all the samples. What do you want?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:44 pmTo those of you who call some of us non-fans when we disagree with the moves this team makes, may I point you to #117.
Leave the rest of us alone.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:45 pm116 - outfield defense and a flyball pitcher.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:45 pmYou all have to understand….this move is being done so that when Brandon Morrow turns into Ken Cloude because of bad coaching the team will have a good pitcher not named Felix or J.J.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:45 pm119 - Exactly. Hence my calling the sample size small. Get it?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:46 pmMorrow really is getting screwed here isn’t he? Why not start this guy? Maybe the M’s will turn around and make another deal for a right fielder…after all, bavasi is a frickin genious…
January 27th, 2008 at 9:49 pmAll I can think about is Varitek/Lowe. Remember people, the only thing Howard Lincoln cares about is fielding a .500 team and making money. In three years we’ll wish we had Jones AND we’ll be paying extra ticket fees for the Yankee series when Bedard is facing the same Mariner lineup that will start this April.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:49 pmGiven what Baker has said, why are we so sure Sherril is getting traded.
DMZ you have to admit that it’s true that Jones is “just a prospect” just like Barack Obama is “just a candidate for the Democractic nomination for the presidency” or Albert Einstein prior to general relativity was “just a guy in a lab coat”. (Ducks bees)
January 27th, 2008 at 9:49 pmthis is pointless
January 27th, 2008 at 9:50 pmHis AAA OPS is around 900, and if you think that OPS drops more than 120 going from AAA to MLB you’re crazy. And if you don’t think that a 780 OPS good fielding RF is valuable, you’re also crazy.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:51 pmI guess like GW Bush, Bavasi has lost so much credibility with his past moves that even if he makes a good decision it is met with well founded skepticism. Bavasi got this one right. Probably.
I think this is a great deal - IF Clement isn’t included. The Mariners chances of winning the World Series in 2008 prior to this deal was about, what, .5 percent? With Bedard it is probably 8%. That is a huge leap. If the Mariners could get into the Playoffs Hernandez and Bedard could pitch them to the title. Long term, maybe Bedard loves the Pacific Northwest (who wouldn’t) and the M’s have plenty of Nintendo money to lock him up long term.
Jones is a great prospect. But with Ichiro being the selfish player he seemingly is, he won’t go back to Right Field which limits the value of Jones on defense. Sure Jones is a potential gold glover in CF, but he isn’t able to play right field. Also, Safeco isn’t kind to right handed power bats either (see Sexson and Beltre, etc.) so Jones likely would have had sub par OBP and SLG, at least for a few years.
If Jeff Clement is included in the deal then Bavasi clearly has mortgaged the future for now. Does anyone recall that Safeco was designed for LH power bats? What is Clement again, oh yea, a LH power bat, and a GOOD one. The guy can hit the ball 450 feet and he is decent behind the plate. If he is part of this package it is mistake short term and long term. Clement won 2 or the last 3 games of the season last year with his bat. Yes, that is a small sample, but this is a guy who broke home run records at a premier collegiate program. I would be shocked if he didn’t hit 30-40 homers annually in the very near future.
Bavasi - I don’t think you have much vision but if you catch a lot of breaks this just might work out.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:51 pmI think at 3 for 1 it was a good deal for both sides, but adding Tony Butler and the Mick really scares me. Both of these guys have been making moves, are on the way up, and could have been in the show later this year or next year, with high ceilings.
Granted it is all BS until they walk between the lines and show us what they can do, but it seems if true, the “last-minute throw -in” players could come back to haunt the M’s like a couple of minor leaguers a while back with the Red Sox.
But at least Bavasi has job security for another year!
January 27th, 2008 at 9:51 pmsomeone please explain what “[bees,bees,bees]” is? thank you…
Yeah, post 21. Plus, now we’ll have another year of Raul vs. the Angry Bees in LF.
The debate about HoRam’s $2.75M makes me think the pen. The last couple of years, the M’s have gotten pretty good production out of a pretty cheap bullpen. This year, the pen will represent a pretty ugly waste of resources. We’ll have a long reliever making almost $3M a year and a #5 overall pick as the RH setup guy. Now, sunk costs or no sunk costs, it’s hard to win championships when you have that kind of ineffiency. Add to that three back of the rotation starters averaging $10M a piece and, well, I guess what we have here is a pattern, eh?
Well, I am in luck. My brother gave me a bottle of awesome rum. I think I need a shot or two.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:55 pmIchiro is selfish.
This thread’s had a lot of insanity, but that has to be the dumbest thing anyone’s said.
What was moving from right to center, then? Selfishness? What about when he didn’t want to? Selfless or selfish?
I don’t even… I’m really not enjoying this discussion today.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:56 pm[I'm an idiot - send bees my way!]
January 27th, 2008 at 9:56 pmIchiro selfish what? Jones can’t play right field what?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:56 pm127 - Great idea. Blatantly disregard the request of an author, then acknowledge that you just did so. Did you not read the button you clicked on the bottom of this page?
128 - So, you’re participating why then? Nothing good on ESPN?
January 27th, 2008 at 9:56 pm131: How is Adam Jones unable to play right field? Is that so much trickier than center field that it renders a very good defensive center fielder useless if he tries? I don’t get that logic at all.
And I’m fairly sure Jones is more of a line drive bat than a power bat. And that Clement doesn’t profile as a 30-40 HR bat in the majors. And that Ichiro isn’t selfish for helping the team. And…
Yeah, Derek’s right. This isn’t enjoyable.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:59 pmI could honestly kill the KJR people (i’m using this term very loosely) for the Ichiro is selfish Vibe.
January 27th, 2008 at 9:59 pmhttp://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-os0127,0,4261099,print.story
MacPhail is denying the whole thing.
“It’s not uncommon for teams to deny a trade or free-agent signing until physicals — if they are deemed necessary — are completed. However, a team source said tonight that trade talks involving Bedard were ongoing and the Orioles had not agreed to a deal with the Mariners or anybody else.”
January 27th, 2008 at 9:59 pmYeah, Derek’s right. This isn’t enjoyable.
Of course not - it’s the Mariners.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:01 pmYeah, we talked about the weird Orioles statement in a previous thread.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:01 pmI may be wrong about Ichiro being selfish, but really, don’t you think it is fair to say there is at least some chance that this is an accurate statement? Being selfish isn’t all bad either. He wouldn’t get 200+ hits every year if he weren’t very talented and perhaps a bit selfish.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:02 pm137 I’m assuming that you got the numbers wrong and are refering to me, and if you’ll read my post again I think it will be obvious that i’m mocking the “just a prospect” crowd. Cheers.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:03 pm[I, too, am an idiot. Hello Bees!]
January 27th, 2008 at 10:03 pmUncle Ted - Totally, my apologies.
Eek. I’m probably not helping the mods by angrily reacting to some of these posts. Post numbers are changing quickly, and probably causing confusion.
I’ll stop. We should all take a step back and think before we post. This is becoming serious chaos.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:04 pmSon of a… and here I thought I was actually adding something to the discussion.
Back to lurking, then.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:04 pmYeah, there’s a lot of deletion going on, and the numbers go up when first-time posters get their comments held for moderation. Always a risk when you reference particular numbers.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:06 pmWhat does being selfish have to do with getting 200-plus hits a season? Is that supposed to mean that if he wasn’t selfish, he would not want 200-plus hits? Maybe he would feel bad that the pitcher hadn’t been able to get him out previously and he’d intentionally throw an at-bat?
January 27th, 2008 at 10:07 pm[boy, I sure do like bees, send some more my way]
January 27th, 2008 at 10:08 pmFor what it’s worth…
Yesterday the Mariners were 30-1 to win the World Series at a major online oddsmaker. Today they are 29-1 to win the World Series. I’d expect a modest bump if/when the trade is approved but don’t expect it to go wild. My guess is 25-1 is the lowest it will dip to.
The guys who make those vegas lines are crazy smart and they are basically telling us we have no shot. Six teams have better odds from the American league than the M’s right now with the Angels at 10.25-1.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:10 pmJones is a great prospect. But with Ichiro being the selfish player he seemingly is, he won’t go back to Right Field which limits the value of Jones on defense.
I thought that Ichiro wasn’t willing to play center, and that’s why we kept putting weaker defensive players out there while he played right. Oh, but that’s the old line. Now Ichiro must only be willing to play center…
Honestly, I think the team could probably ask Ichiro to play pretty much any position and he’d give it a try (he’s already expressed an interest in pitching). Plus I don’t think I’d put Jones in center over Ichiro at this point. Ichiro in center and Jones in left…can you say black hole? Even with a corpse in right, that would be solid.
Now we have Ichiro+Ibanez+random stiff. Well, maybe we can add “visiting team must play with whiffle bats” to the ground rules for Safeco.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:11 pmIt should now be clear that the causal mechanism which gets you attacked by bees isn’t the mention of the words “just a prospect”, but rather any insinuation that minor league stats don’t project somewhat reliably to major leagues. To help clear things up, if you study projections of players with the data history of Adam Jones and compare them to projections of established major leaguers you’ll find that the projections of minor leaguers for whom there is substantive data project almost as well in the following years as projections of players who have major league experience.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:12 pmAlso,
Early last season (read 1st month) the M’s were 19-1 to win the world series. Someone think this team is worse…
January 27th, 2008 at 10:13 pmDerek - Is this where that whole “until this becomes not fun” thing comes into play? I’m far too irritable to deal with a topic of this magnitude.
On the subject, particularly Dave’s #2 - We have two potential Cy Young candidates, who do you have open the season? If Felix wants/demands it, I think you give it to him. If he’s indifferent, I think you give it to Bedard to offload that pressure from Felix.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:13 pmI don’t know, I’m sort of having fun with the bees.
But yes, it’d be nice if we’d have a little less of people just being contrarian for its own sake.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:15 pmYou know what species of animal is really fond of 200-hit season?
January 27th, 2008 at 10:16 pmDave, Derek, accepting the current situation and assuming that there is a little salary flexibility to round out the edges now that we’ve got our 2nd “ace” who would you look for in right field?
January 27th, 2008 at 10:18 pmvegas oddsmaker