Today’s Bedard thread
DMZ · January 29, 2008 at 11:15 am · Filed Under Mariners
Remember when Angelos nixed the Sele deal and the M’s got a pitcher for two years for what, $1? Good times.
It sucks that Jones, in answering a reasonable question, ended up getting what must have been a severe ass-chewing and is now reduced to saying what the team wants to. This whole situation is ridiculous.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones wanted out of Seattle and to never look back, after the way the past several days have gone. I just wouldn’t wish the O’s on anyone as a next destination, least of all a player none of us want to see go.
Save us from ourselves, Angelos!
Agreed. Jones is just trying to cover for essentially the O’s not having any kind of idea of what they’re doing. If Angelos torpedoes this deal, McPhail should leave. I don’t blame Jones, and I don’t think the Venezuelan papers did a bad thing by asking the questions. Winter ball is a big thing to them, and to have the young star pulled out of the playoffs is going to raise some eyebrows. I do feel bad for Bavasi as well, as he’s figuring a deal is good and wants to tell the kid what’s going on. 10 losing seasons in a row…no wonder with a leader like that!
I’m just praying that Angelos’ pride gets in the way.
And I’d love to see McPhail walk if Angelos does nix the deal.
What must be particularly depressing for Jones is that he acted generously and nicely to the reporter and spoke deferentially about and graciously towards the two organizations. Now he is getting it from all sides. That’s a shame.
It is sometimes hard to be a Mariners fan. Imagine being an Orioles fan, though. Terrible.
I can’t imagine anyone actually wants to go and play for a busy bollox like Peter Angelos. Stay here Adam!
I’m so sick of liars in sports – this really bothers me. The guys on KJR read pieces and editorialized a bit of G.Baker’s blog about an hour ago in which Geoff takes Jones to task for trying to worm out of his comments to the Venezualan reporter. While I think it’s disappointing that Jones is getting beat-up from every direction, it’s even more disappointing that he would lie about his interview to a native english-speaker and say that his real words must’ve been lost in translation. Of course, there is supposedly an audio recording of the interview that doesn’t help in supporting his cause. What’s wrong with simply, “I thought at the time I was going to be traded, but obviously it was contingent on a few things so we’re stuck in a waiting game.” I always prefer truth.
Gotta give Bavasi this…he chose to deal w/ the only owner who could look dumber than our FO.
7 – I’m skeptical that Jones actually claimed anything about the interview being lost in translation. Drayer’s blog is pretty ambiguously worded… it could very well be Shannon’s speculation and not an AJ quote.
Jones is doing what the team wants him to do. It’s hard for me to blame him at all for this.
#7 — Jones may not have been forced to lie, but he was probably encouraged to back away from those earlier, truthful comments. So he did what athletes do: say stuff got lost in translation, quotes were taken out of context, etc. When Jones acted nicely, cordially, and honestly, a firestorm occurred. The lesson to be taken here is that if he had acted aloofly, brushed off a reporter, or lied initially, everything would be fine.
RE: 7
Actually, I thought Baker has done a fine job with his coverage. He pointed out that its not Jones fault, that he’s been told by higher-ups to shut up. Baker also supported the Venezuelan reporter, who has come under undeserved fire.
Blame the Orioles and Peter “Der Fuhrer” Angelos.
I don’t understand Angelos’ thought process. Why does he persist in owning the O’s?
This is all an effin’ moot point if we weren’t dealing w/ the Al Davis of baseball (minus the championships of course)
The Olympian now says the deal is on for Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Butler and Mickolio. That would be doomtastic.
#15–I don’t like the deal, but it is not “doomtastic.” Soriano for HoRam fits your description.
Wow. That deal would be a disaster.
Personally, I’d rank that deal as being substantially worse than Soriano for HoRam, and I hated that deal. At least in that deal, we only gave up ONE talented young player. Not four or five.
“I don’t understand Angelos’ thought process. Why does he persist in owning the O’s?”
He’s an ego-maniacal, [while I sympathize with the sentiment, people do read this blog at work] son-of-a-bitch?
18
Well said, lol
Would someone explain to me why a rebuilding team needs to have Sherrill? I just don’t get it. Couldn’t we say NO and they’d still do the deal? I thought they had Jamie Walker.
Is the Olympian the only newspaper reporting that? That paper is about as reliable as mlbtraderumors.com
13 – The Orioles generate profit and businessmen like that sort of thing.
How credible is Kirby Arnold (or at least his sources)? Anybody know?
I feel for Adam. I was asked to blatantly lie by my bosses before. Eventually I went and found another job. What I learned is that if the upper level of a company employs dishonesty to clients and vendors then they are doing the same to their employees. The Mariners are looking more and more dysfunctional every day.
Soriano for HoRam was much worse. The M’s get at least two years service of one hell of a pitcher. And the Olympian’s report is the same as one of Churchill’s earlier reports. It’s nothing new.
Hi Guys,
As a Baltimore resident (though not much of an Orioles fan), we’re equally frustrated at the trade holdup, albeit for opposite reasons. The Sun beat reporters are skewering Angelos for what they perceive as the singular obstacle to a deal that would clearly benefit the O’s.
And nobody in Baltimore has any problem with a haul that’s headlined by Adam Jones. He’ll look just fine next to Nick Markakis as a great – and cheap – OF tandem for the next few years.
Now, if only they can get an equally nice return for Brian Roberts…
Whoops, sorry DMZ, I’m on a crappy connection, which resulted in the double post. Feel free to edit that one as well.
Anyway, Churchill at PI was reporting the same 5-way Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Butler and Mickolio) deal as the Olympian. In fact, I’d bet the Olympian is using PI as their source.
“He’s an ego-maniacal, [while I sympathize with the sentiment, people do read this blog at work] son-of-a-bitch?”
“13 – The Orioles generate profit and businessmen like that sort of thing.”
But, doesn’t failure, repeated catastrophic failure, really undermine that ego-mania?
Also, wouldn’t they be much more profitable if competently run?
I just don’t get the end game for the deceit. If a deal is announced Wednesday are we supposed to be surprised?
Truthfully the effort to be clandestine has created a circus that makes both sides look foolish. Are they manipulating the media machine or are they unaware of it?
#26
I bet you’re right seeing as how the Olympian has no real sources. I bet they put the little tag up that says “first on-line” too.
Kirby Arnold has been on the Mariner beat for a long, long time. I would assume he’s built up a healthy cyber-Rolodex of inside sources. He’s no analyst, but I would generally trust his straight reporting. My paper, the Kitsap Sun, buys his work on contract, finding it preferable to the Associated Press.
The Olympian, since 2006, has been a McClatchy paper, meaning that they’re now part of the News Tribune of Tacoma’s family. So I would think that anything The Olympian reports would come from The News Tribune. The two papers frequently pool their copy for use in each other’s papers and Web sites.
That was me, JG, and no problem.
Like I said, I DEFINITELY sympathize with the sentiment, I just don’t want someone looking over my (or anybody else’s) shoulder and seeing certain words that might not be work-appropriate.
20: I agree, why does Sherrill have to go? It doesn’t make sense…
Could someone summarize the aforementioned Sele situation?
Would someone explain to me why a rebuilding team needs to have Sherrill? I just don’t get it.
Because he’s a valuable chip for them to flip to someone else as part of the Robert’s trade maybe?
Writing from the DC area…
One effect of the delay in this trade is that Angelos is generating a tremendous amount of bad press from the local media for the perception that he’s holding things up. Oriole fans were promised that when Andy McPhail was hired, he’d be in charge and Angelos would not be involved in roster management. If he does step in and veto the trade, even it really is because he gets negative medical reports (which would be news to me — who knew Jones had a hip issue?), it will be a huge hit for the franchise’s credibility.
Baltimore fans are not idiots … it’s obvious to everyone that if you were ranking the AL East organizations, the Orioles would finish last, and there’s a huge gap between the top four and the O’s (and I know Dave ranked them last in the majors earlier this offseason, though I still submit that at least Houston is worse). The fans, I think, would just like to get on with the rebuilding process — deal Bedard and retool for 2010. Unlike in Seattle, there is not even a shred of hope in Baltimore that Bedard makes the team a wild-card contender — if, and only if, they can get a package like the one Seattle is offering.
If the deal is scuttled without Bedard being signed to a long-term extension, it’ll be even worse.
20, 32:
Also, why hasn’t this deal expanded to include Luke Scott? I mean, left-handed power, decent fielder, too old to be of much use to O’s. Doesn’t he fit the M’s to a tee?
It’s like two morons trying to outsmart each other.
I agree, why does Sherrill have to go? It doesn’t make sense…
One of the Orioles stated objectives this offseason was to acquire a “power lefty” for the bullpen.
Seattle should ask for Dennis Safate back as a condition for including Sherrill. The Orioles just got him in the Tejada trade, and he’s a useful bullpen arm who makes no money.
This trade is WAY worse than the Soriano for Ramirez deal…Soriano was a great set-up man, but we traded him for a need, although ramirez is terrible, in a starting pitcher…we are about to trade FIVE needs (defensive outfielder and FOUR pitchers) for ONE need…even though Bedard is a stud, we’ll probably only have him for two years…this trade will go down as the worst in Mariners history…guarantee it…
38: I still don’t see how a “power lefty” helps them right now. Why not substitute Tuiasosopo or someone with long-term potential instead of someone who is going to be way past their prime by the time any of the non-Jones people included in the deal come to the MLB.
40- Sherril would probably be their closer this year…it’s not like they WANT to lose…rebuilding doesn’t mean intentionally losing…
I don’t remember the specifics of the Sele situation in Baltimore, but it seems to me that even though Sele passed a team physical, somebody somewhere involved with that process raised the red flag that Sele’s shoulder was about to fall apart. And so Angelos put the brakes on the deal after it was pretty much announced as done.
Sele’s shoulder DID fall apart, but luckily Seattle got two good seasons out of him before passing him off to the Angels. He fell apart for them … but they won the Series anyway.
#39 — We don’t know if it will be three of four pitchers. Three of the pitchers mentioned are clearly prospects who would contribute nothing to the 2008 club. OK, maybe Mickolio would if Morrow or Green went down with an injury.
The Soriano/HoRam trade was worse because the player the M’s received made the team worse simply by his presence on the field. While I would rather this trade not occur, that scenario will not repeat itself.
Ugh. This trade is like the Austin Powers ‘Unnecessarily slow dipping mechanism’. Except we have no sharks with frickin’ laserbeams attached to their heads to thwart Dr. Bavasi.
37
“Two morons trying to outsmart each other”
You know…it really seems like it, doesn’t it?
Any minute you practically expect Bavasi to throw in Felix and Putz, only to have Angelos nix it claiming he “doesn’t do business this way.”
40.
Sherill can and probably will save some games for the O’s, which will then lead to a nice big payday for him. Bavasi likes to send guys who aren’t being used properly to other teams as a favor to the player, and subsequently the other team as he doesn’t seem to mind getting nothing but sunflower seeds back. See Ben Broussard.
If the Mariners wanted to do Sherril a favor, wouldn’t they NOT include him in this trade? Hasn’t he said more than once that he wants to stay and pitch in Seattle? Or was I misinformed?
43- Churchill has Tillman as a future #2 starter…Mikolio throws low to mid-90s and could be in the pen this year instead of Morrow, and if we had a good FO, they’d do it and put Morrow in Tacoma…Butler, if he stays healthy, is a projected starter…
So you’re saying that giving an All-Star center fielder in the making, the best lefty set-up man in the game and two of your five starters in 2010 or 2011, plus Mikolio for two years of Bedard isn’t a worse trade?
The Ramirez trade should have only hurt us for ONE year (but will continue to hurt us only because Bavasi re-signed him)…this Bedard trade is gonna hurt us for a DECADE…
For whatever reason, the O’s want some major league ready talent. Jones fits that description. As far as pitchers, well, the M’s have no starter they could send, and they want to hang onto Morrow. I assume that the O’s want Sherrill. If they would rather have another minor leaguer who is a year or two away instead of GS52, I assume that Bavasi would be down with that.
Does this make anybody feel better about the Mariners having an absentee owner? Anybody? Yeah, me neither.
From Larry Stone for clarity’s sake on the backtracking/lying:
“The Seattle Times listened to the tape of Jones’ interview with the Venezuelan newspaper via telephone, which revealed he was quoted accurately throughout.”
49 –
The O’s want major league talent because they have major holes all over their roster. They have spots in the OF, don’t have a viable SS, and could upgrade at 3B and 1B as well. The rotation and bullpen are also extremely thin with almost no reinforcements in the minors. I would imagine ML-ready talent in at least one of those areas (in addition to Jones, of course) is a must.
#48 — Again, we do not know that both Butler and Mickolio are included. It may be just one. Also, pencilling both Butler and Tillman into the rotation in 2010 is forecasting beyond what anyone can accurately determine.
As you say, the Ramirez trade continues to hurt the M’s, and they got nothing in return. The Bedard trade will hurt, mostly due to the loss of Jones, but, again, they do receive All-Star quality in return.
Since the O’s have a hole in SS, why not trade Betancourt and get a stopgap until Triunfel is ML ready?
Angelos is SO “old-school” that I’m surprised he hasn’t actually petitioned Selig to change the O’s name back to the Browns — after all, he’s making that franchinse look about as bad as they did 60 years ago when they were still in St. Louis.
nd two of your five starters in 2010 or 2011
How are Ryan Anderson and Clint Nageotte doing these days? Weren’t they supposed to be studs by now?
Please stop with the hyperbole. Consider that Tillman and Butler were drafted in 2006. Going OH NOES WE ARE TEH DOOOOMED because we’re giving up 2 recent draft picks (that weren’t first-rounders- so, theoretically, Fontaine can repeat the scouting in 2008 that was done in 2006 and netted us Butler and Tillman) is silly.
The price for Bedard is too high and I don’t think the deal is desirable, but we aren’t getting a terrible player back like we did when we traded Soriano, and while the Mariners winning the AL West in 2008 isn’t the most LIKELY scenario for the roster as currently constructed, it’s certainly not IMPOSSIBLE, and Bedard helps that scenario.
The Expo trade of Colon for Sizemore/Phillips/Lee really does seem comparable here.
I’ve thought all along that Bavasi told Jones what to say in the first place…I’ve obviously never spoken to Jones, but it souned too scripted and professional…it sounded like something that someone in the organization wrote for him…
re Sele, per Murray Chass 2 years ago:
“Just about a year later, after Syd Thrift replaced Wren, the Orioles reached agreement with Aaron Sele on a three-year, $21 million contract. This time the physical preceded the announcement. The physical didn’t reveal a torn rotator cuff, but the Orioles’ doctors were concerned about the pitcher’s labrum — they said he had only 400 innings left in it — and Angelos wanted to reduce the length of the contract to two years.
Was the concern legitimate, or was it Angelos’s way of lowering the value of the contract?
Rejecting the Orioles’ attempt to change the contract, Sele signed with Seattle for two years and $15 million. In those two years, Sele had records of 17-10 (212 innings) and 15-5 (215 innings). He hasn’t pitched as well since, but 956 innings later, he’s still pitching.”
“Does this make anybody feel better about the Mariners having an absentee owner? Anybody? Yeah, me neither.”
I’m not really an M’s fan, but it should make you feel better. All Seattle needs is a decent GM and they’ll be fine. Baltimore could have Branch Rickey (alive of course) and it might not help.
Back in 1998, when Baltimore’s streak of futility began, there was talk of them taking part in an exhibition series in Cuba. When I heard the idea was nixed because of fears of player defections, it took me a minute to realize they meant the Cubans defecting, not the Orioles. YIKES! This is worse than the 70s Yankees.
Yah, you can’t project Butler and Tillman.
But you’re not going to develop a corps of internally produced pitchers by gutting your farm system every so often. I’m not sure it’s wise to suck everything out above high A.
53- you’re right that we can’t predict the future, but come back in two years when Bedard signs somewhere on the east coast and we are left with nothing, like we were with Soriano…Soriano for nothing sucked, but Jones, Tillman, Mickolio, Sherril, and Butler for nothing will suck WAY more, and for a lot longer…
You’re not taking into account the blockheads up top, who like to interfere as well.
#52 — Do you think the O’s would rather take prospects who are ready to be promoted to the big leagues, or better quality prospects that might have higher grades but are a year or two away? If the O’s want to tear down and build up, I would assume that high quality prospects would be more preferential to players who a ML ready but have lower ceilings. And the M’s seem to have better quality players in their lower levels.
61- It’s not hyperbole for me to think this is the worst trade in the Mariners’ history…
If they trade Yuni I am SO OUT OF HERE.
#54 – Because Triunfel isn’t going to stick at short.
Let’s say that:
Bedard is Bedard for 2 years
AJ becomes a solid ML-level OF
Sherrill is Sherrill
One of Butler/Tillmann/Mickolio sticks at the major-league level, the other two fizzle
Then how does this trade look?
assume that the O’s want Sherrill. If they would rather have another minor leaguer who is a year or two away instead of GS52, I assume that Bavasi would be down with that.
Absolutely. I’m sure Bavasi would rather send more prospects than Sherrill, since George will help
Bavasi keep his jobthe M’s win games in 2008.The Soriano/HoRam trade was worse because…
It’s kind of hard to compare and contrast the two trades. The wisdom of Jones et. al for Bedard really depends on a bunch of variables:
- how you view minor league stats as an indicator of major league success.
- how you view the M’s chances for the playoffs in ‘08.
- how you view the importance of outfield defense.
Depending on what you believe about that stuff, this is either a good deal for the M’s or a terrible deal for them. Do view this as a good trade, you need to hold relatively outdated theories about those things, but if you hold those theories, then at least the deal makes sense within your framework.
Evaluation the Soriano-HoRam deal depended on two things:
- how likely Soriano was to recover from Vlad using his coconut for a bank shot
- talent evaluation of Horacio Ramirez.
The first question is hard to a priori criticize anyone about. That was a scary injury and it was certainly possible for it to have ended Soriano’s effectiveness. Luckily it didn’t. But the second point, there’s just no reasonable way to have evaluated Ramirez as an effective AL starting pitcher. Whatever theories you might hold, he evaluated as “not a guy to have in your rotation.” So even if Soriano wasn’t going to come back from the injury, we traded him for a guy who wasn’t going to solve any problems for us.
I’d say the Jones-Bedard trade is a bad because of poor theory, and the Soriano-Ramirez trade was bad because of poor execution. If we can throw in a “bad because of poor luck” trade, then we’ll have every angle of “bad” covered.
julian–I’m guessing everyone is about to say that the trade still looks bad, because whether the Mariners want to admit it or not, they should be in a rebuilding stage in which they gather up young talent, not get two years of an awesome pitcher who can’t do it all on his own.
snapper (59) – My only beef with the M’s ownership is that they’re willing to let mediocrity run rampant. You’re right, I’d rather deal with that than crazy people (I grew up an A’s fan, so I lived through Charlie Finley). On the other hand, the gap between the M’s rhetoric of “this is our year” and the actual running of the team is wearying in a different way.
in fact, Drayer says just that, today:
“I do care that my words of the possibility that something may have been lost in the translation have by some been attributed to him. He never said that, I did. I posed the possibility because Adam is pretty fluent in Spanish. I knew that he did most of his interviews over there in Spanish, but apparently that one was conducted in English. It appears that he is heading home to Arizona today.”
64 –
They need both, and if the 5-for-1 deal most commonly circulating is accurate, that seems to be achieved – they have two ML-ready players in Jones and Sherrill, and some projection in Tillman-Mickolio-Butler. Of course, Triunfel would trump everyone but Jones, but he’s apparently not – and shouldn’t be – available.
But ya never know – the Oriole organization is so barren, top to bottom, that they may actually prefer quantity over quality…
I thought the theory of building a team is to have a core of homegrown players. You then build off that core and pursue key players to supplement that core.
As it stands, what the Ms did in 2007 wasn’t indicative of a core that took its place; it was dependent on veterans, some of which were thrown away. And now the team is going to get rid of emerging plays, making it almost impossible to plug them into the team as they mature and get ready to contribute.
Fair enough. I wasn’t grinding any particular axe, just putting the question out there to get away from the “Bedard is teh awsome, Jones is just a prospect!!”/”We’re giving away the farm for two batting helmets and packet of peanuts!” hyperbole.
Trade made!
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-01-29-twins-mets-santana_N.htm
Oh, wait. Thank goodness it wasn’t that trade!
“snapper (59) – My only beef with the M’s ownership is that they’re willing to let mediocrity run rampant. You’re right, I’d rather deal with that than crazy people (I grew up an A’s fan, so I lived through Charlie Finley). On the other hand, the gap between the M’s rhetoric of “this is our year” and the actual running of the team is wearying in a different way.”
I think ownership really cares only about the bottom line, and probably has some personal loyalty to Bavasi.
While loyalty is a good thing in general, in this case it’s damaging.
They don’t trust Bavasi enough to make him secure, but haven’t canned him yet.
This gives Bavasi a distorted set of incentives. A team should really NEVER put its GM in a “win or else” situation. It causes stupid behavior to become optimal. As soon as you lose confidence that the GM is going to be here for the next 5 years, he should be gons.
69 – “I’d say the Jones-Bedard trade is a bad because of poor theory, and the Soriano-Ramirez trade was bad because of poor execution.”
I think you may have it backwards. Soriano-Ramirez suffered from poor theory: Unload an injury-prone power reliever for a young, lefty starter. If the Jones-Bedard trade indeed goes through, that seems to be right theory – land a top starter – with poor execution – trade your best young position player to get him.
78- The Soriano deal was a good theory…poor execution…we traded from a position of strength, the pen for a position of weakness, the rotation…Bavasi just sent the wrong reliever and picked the wrong starter, Ramirez, in return…the idea behind the trade was sound…
Let’s say that:
Bedard is Bedard for 2 years
AJ becomes a solid ML-level OF
Sherrill is Sherrill
One of Butler/Tillmann/Mickolio sticks at the major-league level, the other two fizzle
Then how does this trade look?
Probably still bad, because the M’s won’t (absent some good luck) be contending during the Two Years Of Bedard. Then, in 2010, either they sign Bedard to the same FA contract they could have signed him to if he played out his contract somewhere else, or they let him walk in exchange for a draft pick that will help them out in 2012 at the earliest. Meanwhile, for 2010, the rotation is Felix, Baek, the ghost of Carlos Silva, and whatver FAs they sign (Morrow being relegated to the bullpen forever by then). The outfield is a hopefully ageless Ichiro! plus, eh, Wlad and the 2010 version of Jose Guillen?
I think a big part of my dislike of this trade is that it goes against the idea that you need to fill most of the slots in your rotation with cheap guys you develop yourself. FA starting pitchers are just way, way too expensive to build your team with them. Look at us this year – we’re spending close to $30M for three guys that are league average or worse.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-01-29-twins-mets-santana_N.htm
Looks like Santana is a Met.
After a quick look at who goes to the Twins, seems like we gave up more.
Granted, thats for 1 year of Santana vs 2 of Bedard.
nm, looks like there is a long contract extension in the works. I’m jealous.
82- the article states that santana will only agree to the trade if he gets an extension…
i’d be much happier with the bedard trade if he were signing an extension too…
that’s the problem…trading the farm for a two-year rental is terrible…
Bavasi is just trying to save his job…
76-Don’t do that, you nearly gave me a heart attack.
I just got an email from somebody congradulating the Ms on getting Bedard (he obviously forgot about Angelos), it shook my bones.
Not sure where this is coming from but an interesting “red herring” from Baltimore’s version of Geoff Baker.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/
79 –
Uh – yeah, I don’t think I explained that right. My point was the M’s theory was injury-prone reliever/valuable young lefty starter, which was flawed – they undervalued Soriano and overvalued Ramirez. Which led to poor execution.
Ah hell, the whole thing was bad.
One thing that bothers me is this “Bavasi is trying to save his job” talk.
Not that I disagree with anyone who says it, or even think that he’s not making this trade to do so.
No, the real irritant is that our ownership isn’t smart enough to know it isn’t in the long term best interest of the team.
Wow, that’s a pretty underwhelming package for Santana.
And it’s not for 1 year – Santana has full no-trade protection and must hammer out an extension before the trade is official.
No, the real irritant is that our ownership isn’t smart enough to know it isn’t in the long term best interest of the team.
Thanks, Carson, that’s exactly what I meant.
bakomariner…I’m totally with you on the last 3 comments or so
I’m not all that worried about Sherrill as a part of this trade. He’s got about 2 years left before he becomes as expensive as anyone else and may (who knows) be on the decline at that point anyway. I’d like to see him stay, but it’s not him that I am worried about.
Tillman and Butler represent the lowest risk TOR SP in the system. Their inclusion would be understandable if the trade didn’t start with Jones in the first place. Take Jones out of that scenario and I think it’s decent match, though I still don’t like it. If Bedard walks then we’ll be looking at trading Triunfel, Aumont and Ramirez in 2 years to get another Bedard? If this is a good trade, then why not do it again when everything is gone from it and you need another Ace because someone else is playing your prospects? Because it’s not a good trade. It’s protraction instead of progression.
On Sele…Since that deal-buster I’ve got a total of 1113.3 reg season IP by Sele + 25.3 Postseason innings that he pitched for the M’s, + 64.3 minor league innings for a grand total of 1203 IP. He did lose some effectiveness around 400 innings later, was the prophecy self-fulfilling? Either way, you’re right, his arm was not done in or around 400 IP.
Word out of Baltimore and MLBTR saying Jones may have a degenerative hip problem and is being examined in Baltimore before agents are notified and the press. Oh No!
Not suprising. I’ve heard some people talk about how Bedard might net more than Santana. He’s a lot cheaper, controlled for two whole years and doesn’t need to wave a ‘no trade’ clause.
That would be odd. Has there ever been any mention of Jones’ durability prior to this?
No.
I think the Santana trade is contingent on an extension.
The way I see it the Mariners have only ever had sustained success shortly after being on the star trading end of a star for prospects trade.
My question is, how does Baltimore magically know he has a hip issue when they haven’t given him a physical? It isn’t like Bavasi called and let McPhail know.
Something like that could not have been kept secret for so long, I wouldn’t think. And, I don’t for sure, but there is probably some sort of rule against hiding something of that severity when trading a guy. It’s probably a bogus report.
One thing that bothers me is this “Bavasi is trying to save his job” talk.
It bothers me too … mainly because it’s no big shock that he would do so. If Seattle is going to give him another year with a mandate to win now and no job security beyond that, it’s perfectly logical that he would look to make a deal that values the 2008 season far more than it does the future.
I’m sure that somewhere in his mind, he’s figuring that either the team will win now and he’ll get a long-term extension that will allow him to address the talent needs for the future created by this proposed trade, or he’ll lose and the mess will be someone else’s problem. But the clear message from above is that Seattle is spending a lot of money on this team and wants results, not the promise of a better team in 2010, and therefore that’s what Bavasi is doing for self-preservation.
97 (Whishhiker) – Incorrect. The Randy Johnson trade is a perfect example.
And now that I think about it, the trade FOR and OF Randy are good examples.
Stan Charles (a Baltimore sports radio guy and publishes a free local sports paper) apparently is the one who claimed (while guesting on a local radio show) that Jones had a degenerative hip problem. Roch Kubato of the Sun addressed it by writing “All I can say about the topic is that the Orioles became concerned with something related to Jones, and the fact that they wanted to bring him in for a physical before alerting Bedard’s agent that a trade agreement was reached should send off signals. But we’ve heard nothing up to this point about his hip”
he then hoped that Charles (without naming him) really did know something true before shooting his mouth off.
From Rotoworld:
Unconfirmed speculation on a Baltimore radio show is that Adam Jones has a degenerative hip condition that’s put the Erik Bedard deal on hold.
There’s been nothing legitimate anywhere lending this any weight, but since the Baltimore Sun is starting to run with it ever so slightly now, we will as well. As the Sun’s Roch Kubatko put it: “Maybe this will prove true later. We’ll find out soon enough. But nobody at The Sun would go on a radio show and blurt out this kind of information without being absolutely positive (and obviously reporting it in the paper first). That’s dangerous territory, especially when you’re possibly impacting a young athlete’s reputation and future earnings.” Exactly right.
Source: Baltimore Sun
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/2008/01/quick_comment_on_jones.html
With regards to Sherrill, there are several good reasons that Baltimore would want him.
1. He is cost controlled and reasonably cheap for the next year or two (not sure of his service time).
2. He helps them avoid embarrassing themselves this year and may even serve as their closer.
3. As an effective lefty, he is likely to have substantial trade value over the next year or two, particularly to a contender at the trade deadline.
4. If they make him their closer and he is even moderately successful in that role, then he may well be a type A or type B free agent after his arbitration years.
So, the throw in lefty can throw some effective innings over the next couple of years at a reasonable cost and could very well be parlayed into even more, valuable, cost controlled players in the future.
There’s really no downside for the Orioles in getting Sherrill. I wouldn’t consider it a deal killer from their end, but if the M’s keep insisting that they won’t part with Morrow or Triunfel, then it is certainly sensible from their angle to demand a valuable commodity like Sherrill.
It wouldn’t be unlike Angelos to make up the hip thing to get out of the deal, but I can’t imagine why he’d want to. Maybe it went something like this…
BAVASI thinks: Bedard’s a stud pitcher. Let’s see if I can get him for Adam Jones.
ANGELOS thinks: Bedard for Jones straight-up? That’s a great deal for me, but let’s see what else I can get.
BAVASI thinks: Well, Jones is just a kid; I didn’t think that would work. Let’s throw in more guys.
ANGELOS thinks: Wow, this Bavasi guy is easy. Let’s get greedy.
BAVASI thinks: Holy crap, Truinfel too? Well, he is just a prospect. Let’s get this thing done.
ANGELOS thinks: Wait a sec. This is insane. Why is he offering so much for Bedard? There must be something wrong with this Jones kid.
Does the Johan trade have any implications on the Bedard trade? Perhaps Bavasi sees the prospects involved in that one and realizes he is getting robbed at knifepoint?
The Baltimore Sun really isn’t running with it — they’ve been the most cautious of anyone throughout. Kubatko is just saying that the comments about his hip were made on the radio and we’ll see what happens from here, not that there’s any truth to the rumor.
I don’t think it’s a Sun reporter who went on the radio, which is what the Rotoworld blurb seems to imply — it’s a Sun reporter commenting in the blog about what was said by a radio host.
It’s not hyperbole for me to think this is the worst trade in the Mariners’ history…
Well, let’s see. We traded two future All-Stars in 1997 (Lowe and Varitek) for a bad reliever (Slocumb). I’m going to have a hard time buying the logic that a deal that nets you Erik Bedard, one of the best starting pitchers in the AL, as WORSE than that.
Carson I think you misunderstood what I meant…Yes Trading Langston, Johnson and Griffey are perfect examples of them being on the “star trading end” of a star for prospects trade. If you trade the star you are on the star trading (not receiving) end.
see #102
#110 — Right, but I think the Rotowire wording implies that the Sun is lending more credence to the story than it actually is.
108-First off, it’s still not hyperbole…it’s my opinion…if I think it’s the worst trade ever, then I think it is…it has nothing to do with hyperbole…I’m not using extreme exaggeration…I really think it’s the worst trade the franchise has ever made…your opinion might differ, and that’s your right…
Secondly…what we are POTENTIALLY giving up for a two-year rental, I don’t care how good Bedard is, isn’t worth it…unless the Ms win the WS with Bedard, which I don’t think ANYONE believes, then it’s their worst deal ever, in my opinion…
There is almost no way Angelos is making this up to get out of a trade.
eponymous what if it ends up being 4 future All-Stars? Sherrill could make it as a Closer, Jones is considered likely to get a few, Tillman and Butler could make it as Starters. I’m not going to argue that Mickolio could, making it possibly 5. Since this is your stance (future All-Stars) You’ve already given up any right to refute my question by saying that you can’t judge the trade later. Any of those 4 have as much chance of becoming All-Stars as Lowe or Varitek did in 1996.
If anyone wants to see something really funny (or sad, depending on your point of view,) go check out the current poll on ESPN. Just goes to show you how informed most fans are about prospects.
106 (Shizane) – Well, Bavasi is robbing himself at knifepoint, if anything.
He has said all winter his goal is to get a #1 starter. So in his mind, to use a poker term, he’s “pot commited” at this point.
116- nice…
not hyperbole for me to think this is the worst trade in the Mariners’ history
Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago?
I think that the analysis of Angelos is an ego maniac is probably correct.
In response to 28, “But, doesn’t failure, repeated catastrophic failure, really undermine that ego-mania?”, the answer is that genuine ego maniacs (narcissists) reinterpret the entire world around them in a way that makes everything that goes wrong some one else’s fault. They’re completely incapable of critical self-reflection, and respond to failure by blaming others.
Let’s hope Angelos blows this up. I think there really is a chance at this point that McPhail was ready to sign onto a trade for Jones and that Angelos said that he needed to get more. Bavasi clearly wants Bedard, and he’s clearly ready to trade his starting (young, talented) right fielder and then some to get him. But–let’s hope–Bavasi has his limits and Angelos doesn’t like them.
Hyperbole is using extreme exaggeration: “It’s hotter than Hell in here.”
For me to say that I think it is the worst trade the franchise has ever made is not an example of hyperbole.
It’s just my opinion. If you thought I was exaggerating by my opinion, you misunderstood. I REALLY THINK IT IS THE WORST TRADE IN MARINERS HISTORY. I AM NOT EXAGGERATING.
I REALLY THINK IT IS THE WORST TRADE IN MARINERS HISTORY. I AM NOT EXAGGERATING.
But you are shouting…
The horrid HoRam trade, among other bad decisions, is precisely why Bavasi now feels compelled to trade Jones, Sherrill, et. al. for Bedard. Bavasi’s inability to assemble a quality pitching staff necessitates, in his mind, sacrificing a great OF for a long time to come. This is precisely why I was so agitated (angry, actually) last year when Bavasi screwed the pooch in his quest to rebuild the rotation, because the ramifications of that failure are costing us now as dearly as I had feared. If only Angelos’ eccentric behavior could save the M’s from themselves!
I REALLY THINK IT IS THE WORST TRADE IN MARINERS HISTORY. I AM NOT EXAGGERATING.
Well, will you at least concede that Bedard is a little more valuable than Ramon Santiago? (Not that the Mariners properly appreciated Santiago’s sterling qualities)
And odds are that Jones’ next 4 years won’t look quite as good as Carlos Guillen’s last 4 . . .
How someone can simply state an opinion and someone else claim that it’s exaggeration is absolutely beyond me. You would have to read their mind to know that they are exaggerating their opinion.
Wait, didn’t somebody make a joke in another USSMariner thread about Jones having a bad hip?
43frstydogg Says:
“SpokaneMsFan Says:
So any chance Bedard somehow doesn’t pass his physical? (yes I’m grasping at straws here).”
Great, we give back a number 1 starter for a gimpy RF. That sounds wonderful. Throw your straws in the garbage.
Wouldn’t it be hilarious if that post was the start of all the fuss? Someone Baltimore person read that and panicked?
nobody ever talks about Nelson and Tino for Sterling Hitchcock and Russ Davis. That was horrible too. There have been a lot of bad trades perpetrated by the M’s in the past. IMO the Garcia trade reeks too. Had that trade netted just 1 mainstay we’d be in much better position.
Wouldn’t it be hilarious if that post was the start of all the fuss? Someone Baltimore person read that and panicked?
Wouldn’t that be something?
IMO the Garcia trade reeks too. Had that trade netted just 1 mainstay we’d be in much better position.
But that’s hindsight. Reed was a very good prospect when we traded for him.
As has been mentioned numerous times (more eloquently and by people much smarter than me), you can’t judge a trade by it’s eventual outcome(s). It’s not fair.
Also, it makes me sad that sometimes our Mariner Fanhood is reduced to debating which is the worst trade/move in franchise history. I know every fan does it in every city, but it’s depressing reliving all that.
Wishhiker,
You can say the Garcia trade was bad in hindsight, but at the time it seemed quite good. If all of Bavasi’s deals looked that good upfront, we wouldn’t be in this predicament now. Sure some of them still would have failed, but not all of them would have failed.
Another forgotten trade that turned out badly: Mike Hampton and Mike Felder (?) for Eric Anthony (?). Does anyone remember what the Ms were thinking, there?
I argued at the time that it was a bad move to not even get a pitcher back for Garcia.
Others continually use what Lowe and Varitek became to call it a bad move.
It was actually Nelson Tino and Mecir for Davis and Hitchcock.
Here’s a good one:
<a href=”http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/news/2001/12/04/sayitaintso_mariners_reax/<Mariner’s fans remember the heartbreakers
How great would it be if by speaking early Jones got the deal nixed. Maybe he reads USSM and knew he could screw the deal up there for giving Seattle more success!! AJ you are a genius!
Wishhiker,
I wouldn’t say that the Slocoumb trade was bad because of what Lowe and Varitek became. I’d say it was bad because it doesn’t make sense to trade to fairly good prospects (I’m not sure how highly they were thought of at the time) for a middling relief pitcher.
Forgot the ” at the end of link
[long link, couldn't fix it for you]
I double checked the code that time, missing something…
The sentiment I recall from the time of the Slocumb trade was “don’t you mean ‘or’.” Varitek ‘or’ Lowe made more sense to fans at the time, so it was known to be bad at the time.
You don’t need to use code for links. The site automatically makes them a link.
Use code! Use code!
ESPN now reporting the Santana deal, also.
Man. If you thought he was good in the AL…
Derek – Was that a joke, or like, you really want us to use code for links?
My sarcasm meter is broken.
And apparently so is my Notice-the-new-thread meter. I’ll shut up now. Time to go home.
Can you imagine how entertaining this whole debacle would be if we weren’t M’s fans? Seamheads in Detroit, Atlanta, Boston and Phoenix (if there are any) must be wetting themselves in laughter.
131: Yes, but Eric Anthony did go on to win some titles on the pro bowlers’ tour…oh wait, that was EARL Anthony!
133: Now THAT trade was truly awful…still wondering what kind of blackmail pictures Steiny & Cashman had on Woody to fleece him that badly!
Heck, I DO think this is entertaining. I just find it terribly amusing, no matter what happens and no matter how screwed the Ms get…
Since Jones has this “hip problem”, would the Orioles consider Clement and Balentien instead?
Just send Angelos HoRam already and be done with it. Since the O’s probably won’t be in contention for years to come, he’s good enough for that team.
With a better park, scouting, player development and revenues this FO can’t really prove to be worse than the Woodward days, can it?
148 – the O’s are bad, not retarded.
I stayed away from baseball for three years because of Barry Bonds and steroids. The Mitchell Report changed my mind and I actually had planned to go to a game or two in ‘08. If this trade goes through it’s another three years where I won’t give a hoot. If Mariner management doesn’t care – why should I?
Then again I read the post on how Cleveland and the guys that left that organization have done things in other cities. Wait a second, who am I kidding…….it’s this trade dammit!!!!!
I’m not seeing how “Bill Bavasi is a bad GM” = “the Mariner management doesn’t care”. I think the management is a lot better off than, say, the Marlins under Wayne Huizenga. At least when Bavasi makes a dunderheaded move like Sori for HoRam, it’s because he has the IQ of soup, not because he is marching on an owner’s directive to cut payroll any way possible.
It’s not that long ago that the above statement *did* describe the M’s. Fans didn’t turn out to see the team throughout the 80s because George Argyros was not, in the end, trying to run a successful baseball operation. The club continually deep-sixed themselves for money reasons, whether they were trading away both Spike Owen and Dave Henderson for Rey Quinones and crap, moving Danny Tartabull for Scott Bankhead and Mike Kingery, or picking Mike Moore over IIRC Daryl Strawberry because they didn’t want to pay the latter player.
Be thankful that this GM is just stupid, not forced to engage in bean-counting (also, Bedard for Jones/Sherrill isn’t that bad of a trade at all).
You know, as a kid I had a friend who had a dog. This was an old, old dog. Older than my friend. It was mostly blind, and mostly crippled, and it mostly just lay around the house. But every once in the while some youthful canine memory or instinct would fire up in that addled brain, and it would head down to the basement. Down there was some old, ugly furniture from the 50s and 60s, including a heavily-upholstered ottoman. Somehow, in what passed for its doggy mind, this crushed-velvet piece of furniture looked like a bitch in heat; and so, with more enthusiasm than ability, the elderly hound would try to mount the footstool.
Watching this deal unfold is like watching that dog, with its arthritic spine and hip dysplasia and general lack of coordination, try to consummate its engagement with the furniture: it’s unpleasant to contemplate, tragi-comical to witness, unsatisfying for the participants, and ultimately a disaster to clean up after.
joser – And don’t forget, it’s nearly impossible to teach that old dog new ways of doing things. It’s best if he’s put down, to save the people around him the pain of watching him being useless any longer. Time to get a new, young, idea filled puppy.
Beautiful analogy, joser.