Am I supposed to reset the counter or what?
DMZ · January 30, 2008 at 9:48 am · Filed Under Mariners
If the team makes a bad move and it stalls, does that count for purposes of the “Days without a bad move” counter? It’s not a “bad move completed” counter, after all… but then, we haven’t been starting over for every Tony Clark rumor… shoot.
It’s horrible that after weeks of resignation that Jones would be traded, the deal’s finally consummated and then we get this limbo. Won’t someone think of the fans, and their blood pressure?
Photo from Marshall Astor’s flickr stream. Used under the Creative Commons license.
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141 Responses to “Am I supposed to reset the counter or what?”
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Nah, this site is like Keith Olbermann’s show on MSNBC, where he talks about things the “real” news shows won’t cover, he doesn’t let people shout at each other during the show, and there’s always that smart ass humor lingering in the background.
I’d have to go with Baker’s blog as CNN (I think he’s respectable, it’s the rabble he’s aroused that I can’t take), and the PI blog as Fox (pretty much no content, but lots of strong opinions).
At least one of us is the Kitsap Sun, right?
smb – Haha.
Haven’t we offended them enough for one month? You number-loving cybergeek.
Jeff Nye – you have no business finding that sort of comment disrespectful, given that you have ceaselessly put down Willie Bloomquist as of late. If being compared to an unreputable news source is so offensive to you, you ought to find another site to post on, because being insulted is half of what goes on here lately.
101 – I am part of the Kitsap Sun Is Awesome Crew, due to my appreciation of Willie Bloomquist, and my fondness for articles mentioning Richie Sexson and bank robbers (if anyone knows what I am talking about).
Actually, I’ve pretty much always put down Willie, particularly when he opens his mouth about wanting to play like a starter when he can’t, well, play like a starter.
Maybe we need to add something to the button about “I’m not here just to try to pick fights with people”, too.
I’m not sure why anybody is surprised by groupthink (right or wrong as it may be) at any site on the internet. People tend to congregate with others they agree with. If you agree with what the authors of a site write, you’re more likely to come back repeatedly and become a part of the community. That’s a major part of the reason that you’ll never see a good, coherent, and supportable post that is counter to whatever the general USSM opinion is.
I’d say that’s only in general; i.e., a stats based view supplemented by visual scouting. If you’re not comfortable with stats or numbers, of course you’re not going to stick around.
For specific cases, I think you’ll find folks disagreeing when the stats are ambiguous. (Hm. Perhaps the case of Clement may be applicable).
90- Um, it’s not about predicting the future with certainty. It’s about using informed statistical analysis to say what is MOST LIKELY to happen. Saying “anything can happen” means absolutely nothing. For example, the Pirates can win the World Series in 2008. That’s irrefutable. Where you would rightly object is by saying that they are HIGHLY unlikely to do so. That’s the basic objection I have to the Bedard trade. The Mariners simply aren’t the favorites to win the division with Bedard. I doubt it’s even a coinflip. Realistically, they have probably a 30% chance or so, but because of Jones’ offensive/defensive value and Sherrill’s value in the pen, their chances don’t seem much worse with Jones… say 20-25% or so. If you think it’s worth mortgaging the franchise’s future to still only have an outside chance at making the playoffs this year, that’s where you’ll encounter a lot of opposition. The only way to rationally support the trade is to argue that the M’s become the favorites to win the West with Bedard, and that they’re unlikely to make it with Jones. You’d pretty much have to take the M’s 88 wins in 2007 at face value, believe they can replace Jose Guillen’s value in right field, and hope that any player decline will be offset by other players improving or rebounding.
As for the Boston/Florida trade, Boston was in a much more competitve position before the trade than Seattle is before acquiring Bedard, so it made sense for Boston to make that move to get over the hump. Seattle’s barely in shouting distance of the hump.
The Mariners can finish in second with Bedard just the same as they can with Jones, and they’re likely not going to win anything now or in the foreseeable future. Given that near certainty, I’d rather watch Jones every day for the next six years than Bedard every fifth day for the next two.
That’s a major part of the reason that you’ll never see a good, coherent, and supportable post that is counter to whatever the general USSM opinion is.
That’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve read in days, and that’s saying something.
What happens when Dave and I disagree on things? Do you expect people’s heads to explode? Mass exodus? Dogs and cats living together?
Taylor, please, take a break from USSM for a while. You’re clearly not having a good time if you think insulting’s half of what goes on.
Well, there were a couple messes in July and August, I believe, someone had to clean up…
(Hm…groupthink to a certain extent is correct, if we’re talking about comfort with numbers and using somewhat abstract measuring scales; if you’re not comfortable or able to use stats, you’re not going to present a cogent, well organized argument that counters the prevailing train of thought around here….)
I love reading this blog. I usually don’t post but after reading Diderot and Taylor H’s posts I felt compelled to say that if they have a problem with this site then don’t visit it.
I agree with Jeff Nye about the Willie Bloomquist issue as well. I don’t have a problem with him. He is great in his role, but he needs to accept the fact that he doesn’t have the skills to be an everyday player. So he should shut his mouth about being one.
I still don’t get why people hang out here or any other blog if they dislike it. Me, I have fun here.
If you substitute “posters” for “fans, and “site” for “ballpark,” I think Yogi had the right idea:
I don’t think that its so much groupthink. I think its more the fact that Dave and Derek are very well educated about baseball analysis, and let people know their opinions about what the Mariners do, and let people decide for themselves whether they agree with Dave and Derek. I happen to not agree with everything, but it seems that Dave and Derek can many times break their arguements down to an intellectual and statistical level to where you’d have to not be terribly smart to disagree with them on most things. Alot of times people who try to argue with Dave or Derek usually can’t argue back intellectually and have to resort to Ad Hominen, where they usually call Dave a pessimist because he doesn’t agree that Mariners should give up Jones for Bedard.
I don’t think Dave or Derek would feel so strongly about something if they didn’t 100% know that they were right. You guys both do a great job on this blog and has helped me open my eyes and makes me feel alot more educated about the team and baseball in general. Now don’t go calling them Fox News, if anything they expose what’s wrong about the organization that management would rather keep quiet about.
Keep the counter until it’s a done deal.
The saddest thing about this deal is that, as bad as the M’s record is for developing players, Adam Jones is far less likely to develop as a player with the dysfunctional Orioles, where the fans–to the extent they care at all–will look on him as the savior of the franchise, or “the guy we traded Bedard for”, than with the M’s, who after all have Ichiro and Felix and JJ to give him cover as he develops. I’ve always wondered how Jose Cruz, Jr. would have turned out if he had been allowed to stay in Seattle, instead of becoming the hope of the Blue Jays franchise, a tag he wasn’t capable of handling.
Was trading Hanley for Beckett a good idea or not? (And by even asking this, I’m allowing you to put Hanley and AJ in the same category).
By even asking that question, you have shown yourself to be woefully unfamiliar with the main argument against the trade. Not that this comes as a surprise to anyone who’s read more than 3 of your comments.
QOTD from the ESPN forums:
“It’s always high comedy when two incompetently run franchises attempt to do business with one another.”
I walked into this bar in Enumclaw last night. All the guys were wearing cowboy hats and boots. I was really thirsty though, so I decided to order a beer. Everyone was courteous to me, even though I totally didn’t fit in.
So, I strolled over to the juke box, put in a dollar, and searched for my favorite Eminem song. I was awe struck! Garth Brooks? Tim McGraw? I told them this music sucks.
For the most part, people just stared at me. A couple guys pointed out that I was wrong, and if I didn’t like it, perhaps I should go somewhere that suits my tastes better.
Can you believe that?? I can’t walk into a hick bar and diss on country music? They said I could stay, but I had to be respectful. HA! What has this world come to, anyway?
Let me add here that I wasn’t using the term groupthink in an attempt to cast a negative light on this site. The word fits because you’ve created a community of increasingly intelligent baseball fans that can follow your arguments and come to the same conclusions. People who disagree in the comments are usually of the type that refer to your ‘magical numbers’ not knowing everything – which is very different from when one author disagrees with another. Can anyone find me an example of someone in the comments putting forth an argument that isn’t immediately dismissed as ridiculous by most of the other people commenting? Highly unlikely.
What happens when Dave and I disagree on things? Do you expect people’s heads to explode? Mass exodus? Dogs and cats living together?
Not at all. On the very rare occasions where you guys disagree, you’ll see commenters split on either side because the authors are actually able to make reasonable and supportable arguments that oppose each other.
So how much money do they have to throw at Bedard to make him sign the extension and nix this deal? AND if he does, where will Bavasi go to get ripped off next?
Keep the counter, just because you’ll start it over again when and if the deal is finalized.
Carson:
I’ve been to that bar. I stayed and had a few brews, listening to the regulars banter about the advantages of Albama and Trisha Yearwood. At the end of the evening I still wasn’t a big fan of country, but at least I had a better understanding of why some folks like and value the genre.
How deep is the farm system in Seattle? Are they really mortgaging the future with this trade? I want to see Adam Jones play in Seattle, but I think locking up two of the best pitchers in baseball for 4 or 5 years is a pretty good thing. It would appear that while this won’t get the Mariners into the playoffs in 08, but neither would keeping Jones in Seattle. With Sexson and Vidro coming off the books in 09 and hopefully Wlad and Morrow ready for prime time in 09, the team wouldn’t need much else to field a very good team in 09. Am I way out of line?
BTW – I read all the posts and being a numbers guy, I totally get and respect the argument from Dave, but I’m still not convinced this is the worst move ever. If entirely empties the farm system and it is going to make it 3-4 years before we’ll get another person up into the bigs, I get that, but it doesn’t seem like that is the case.
It’s interesting that the Orioles fans don’t want the trade to happen either, but I imagine nobody wants to lose a Cy Young pitcher and it doesn’t appear they understand Jones’ value.
diderot – 80
No condolences necessary.
For the record, I enjoy this blog, and in fact it’s the only one I read on a regular basis. I just wish I had the time to contribute to the conversation more.
I made my first comment on this topic because I thought I should try my hand at presenting what I believed to be a fairly decent argument in favor of the Bedard trade. But keep in mind that I’m not gung-ho for this trade, I only defend it to the point that I’m not as worried about it as others seem to be. Someone tried to counter my argument by stating Guillen was less than average on defense (if I understood his statement correctly), but that supports my belief that we’re not worse off in defense this coming season w/o Jones in RF (so I’m not entirely sure if he got my point). I agree with the argument that this trade still doesn’t guarantee a playoff birth, and should we never make the playoffs, it will certainly hurt our future beyond the next 2-3 years. But what guarantee is there that we’ll make the playoffs once Jones reaches his prime?
I may not be a numbers geek, but I am a Mariners geek (that’s probably an oxymoron on this blog, huh?). I agree with numbers to a certain extent, and realize that baseball decisions (on & off the field) mostly derive from numbers, but I don’t believe them to be the end-all in those decisions. I find it hard to believe that we’ll ever begin the season with a guarantee to make the playoffs based on numbers.
Deal or no deal, either way, I won’t be loosing any sleep over this
I realize now that I’m not probably not properly valuing Jones’ offense…
124- I can see how both fan bases are against it because either way Bal or Sea is not winning the WS and having a hard time getting into the playoffs at all this year. Fans get attached to their players and don’t want to see them tossed away by bad management. That is the simple argument most fans come up with in my opinion.
I could talk myself in to Bedard easily cause he would be fun to watch every 5 days. I have no control how Bavasi messes up this organization so I try not to get into the details of it and just hope players that are fun to watch end up on the roster. Guillen was one of my favorite players on the roster last year just cause I thought he was enjoyable to watch play the game of baseball. In a season where the chances we make the playoffs are slim either move we make, might as well just enjoy the game of baseball.
All that said I have become a die hard fan of this site and love all the information floating around and agree with the authors most of the time. But the little kid baseball fan in me keeps from getting to upset because either way I will be watching baseball in a month.
A lot of people who don’t pay any attention to the M’s havn’t a clue who Adam Jones even is, much less what is value to a team would be.
Oh yeah, and 20: Armstrong and Lincoln are the problem. Absolutely. Without them, the team would have been playing in Tampa Bay for years now, and there’d be nothing to bitch about without an MLB team here.
I’m not sure if this is sarcasm, but you seem to mis-remember what happened. The voters rejected funding for a new baseball only facility. Howard Lincoln got on TV at a press conference and brought his crying grandson up so everyone could see what a horrible thing they had done. At that point the state gov’t stepped in and pushed the funding through on their own. Lincoln’s behavior was bad pool, plain and simple.
How deep is the farm system in Seattle? Are they really mortgaging the future with this trade? I want to see Adam Jones play in Seattle, but I think locking up two of the best pitchers in baseball for 4 or 5 years is a pretty good thing. It would appear that while this won’t get the Mariners into the playoffs in 08, but neither would keeping Jones in Seattle. With Sexson and Vidro coming off the books in 09 and hopefully Wlad and Morrow ready for prime time in 09, the team wouldn’t need much else to field a very good team in 09. Am I way out of line?
I wouldn’t say you’re out of line, perhaps just off-base a little. Yes, Sexson and Vidro have their contracts comming off the books, but to be competitive we need to not just replace their bats, but preferably upgrade them (and in Sexson’s case, upgrade defense as well). If Jones is gone, then there’s one more bat and glove to upgrade. If the dollars for Sexson and Vidro go to the rotation, (and here I’m rehashing a previous comment I made), how do we upgrade three positions when there aren’t upgrades lurking in our farm system? Wlad might become an everyday player, but his potential upside is less than Jones, so he’s not an upgrade.
Yeah, how silly of me. Keeping the franchise here gives Lincoln a free pass on any bad decision he makes for the rest of time.
Because, we would totally rather root for a poorly run franchise than none at all, right?
Woohoo. The Marlin’s have saved us from ourselves.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7742502/Source:-Gonzalez,-Marlins-agree-to-deal
Well, if this deal does go down we won’t have to worry about an Ibanez-Ichiro!-Gonzalez outfield this year.
Carlos Triunfel ranked #18 on Keith Law’s prospect rankings this morning.
Well, actually, he gets a slightly discounted pass.
Just means I’ll take the volume down one or two decibles when I think he does something stupid…
FYI, Howard Lincoln was not involved in team management during the push for a new stadium. It was John Ellis. Also, Chuck Armstrong was not President for a stretch as he was running City Light. I do not remember when he returned to the team though.
Giving credit to Lincoln and Armstrong for Safeco is flat wrong.
First, plenty of people come here and disagree with Dave and DMZ’s opinions. I guarantee you could count at least fifty different commenters disagreeing with Dave and Derek’s opinions about the Bedard trade alone. So while it’s true that there’s a lot of agreement among commenters here as a rule — as has been pointed out, we come here because we find the writing of the authors sensible and enlightening — it is obviously (unless you have a chip on your shoulder) untrue that you can’t express a contrary opinion. It’s true that if you simply repeat the opinions of others, or appear to ignore the arguments you disagree with, your opinions won’t meet with a lot of respect. It’s true that no one’s going to pretend your opinion is equal just because you expressed it. But people are happy to engage politely with polite and informed disagreement, as Desmond has shown in this thread, despite Diderot’s eagerness to claim Desmond as a persecuted brother in arms.
One further note about “groupthink” and the conversation here: I know a hell of a lot less about baseball than Dave and Derek. I’m not ignorant, but these guys are serious students of the game, spending a huge part of their lives thinking about it and observing it. I’m hear mostly to listen to them, and ask questions, and on occasion to disagree respectfully, as a student might. I think many people here feel the same way. If we agree a lot, is is because we’re learning from a couple of teachers. If you don’t like the idea of this being closer to a classroom than a free conversation among equals, you really ought to consider whether you’re going to be comfortable here. It’s okay to think that it makes this a snobby site run by people who brook no disagreement, if that’s how you want to deal with it; but having an attitude about it in the comment threads is just silly.
If the dollars for Sexson and Vidro go to the rotation, (and here I’m rehashing a previous comment I made), how do we upgrade three positions when there aren’t upgrades lurking in our farm system?
Is that what is happening? Bedard wants 100 million over 7 years. He probably won’t get that. Maybe 10-12 million a year. Wasn’t that Weaver’s salary?
I don’t understand why they let Guillen go. Was it just concern about his steroid use and “tainting” the good name of the Mariners. No, he wasn’t great but he seemed to be somewhat of a leader, with good pop
Sorry for being grumpy, guys. I am sorry for offending anyone here at USSM, I enjoy being part of the community here. I apologize to, namely: Jeff Nye, DMZ, Dave, and the rest of the crew. No more will I complain when there is discussion of differing opinions, since that is what makes this site so interesting. Anyway, I guess the whole point of USSM is to argue and discuss baseball, while being adult about it. Also, I guess comment 135 hit the bulleye, in that from now on, I think we all – especially myself – should be more studentlike when we post. I wouldn’t have disrespected my teachers, so I shouldn’t disrespect DMZ and Dave (who equivalent to our teachers), since they allow us all to post. I think someone said a while ago that Dave and DMZ have hitorically been right about the M’s moves, which is why they argue dilligently against the Bedard trade and the farm system and so on; I did some research, and you guys really have been right about nearly everything. To sum everything up: sorry guys. Please do not delete my comment, mods. This is important for me to say, and this post is almost dead.
Back to baseball:
The M’s let Guillen go most likely because they knew he might have to miss considerable playing time, such as 1/7 of the whole season.
The M’s ought to lock up Bedard for a while. My suggestion: 5 years, 60 million – then trade him during the fifth year of his contract for a certain young Oriole star outfielder. Hey, it could happen.
I can’t be the only person who sees Richie — God love him, I’m sure he’s a very nice fellow — as a black hole on offense, and, alas, the very opposite on defense. It’s hard to imagine having a working lineup with him in it (unless one is ready to buy into the “he’s going to have breakout year” koolaid), nor a reasonable defensive infield.
I realize we’re all about the Bedard thing right now, but is that really going to matter if we’re stuck with this (very nice guy) boat anchor at first? Having even a major upgrade in our rotation doesn’t help if we have crappy defense and crappy offense behind improved pitching, right?
Taylor, that was well done.
Taylor:
No worries, and thank you for the nice words.
I apologize, also, if I might have come across as less conciliatory than I might have been; criticism of me, I can handle (it’s par for the course doing this sort of moderation), but there have been a lot of rather personal attacks on the authors here lately, and Dave, DMZ, and JMB (even though we haven’t seen him in a while) have really done an amazing service to us as Mariners fans, and baseball fans in general, by putting their time and sweat into this site for little to no compensation; I have no tolerance for people being mean to them (not addressing to you, specifically, those people know who they are).
So, it’s been a frustrating few days all around, particularly with how emotionally charged this potential trade (should we still be calling it that?) has the potential to be.
Let’s all try to step up our game, moving forward, and remember that we can disagree and still be friends.
According to the Baltimore Sun we are giving up Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Mickolio, and Butler. Are we only getting Bedard in return? Or has anyone heard if the Orioles are sending us back at least some minor league arms?