Am I supposed to reset the counter or what?
DMZ · January 30, 2008 at 9:48 am · Filed Under Mariners
If the team makes a bad move and it stalls, does that count for purposes of the “Days without a bad move” counter? It’s not a “bad move completed” counter, after all… but then, we haven’t been starting over for every Tony Clark rumor… shoot.
It’s horrible that after weeks of resignation that Jones would be traded, the deal’s finally consummated and then we get this limbo. Won’t someone think of the fans, and their blood pressure?
Photo from Marshall Astor’s flickr stream. Used under the Creative Commons license.
Comments
141 Responses to “Am I supposed to reset the counter or what?”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
USSM uses and recommends
Isn’t every day a bad day when you have Bill Bavasi as your F.O. What boggle’s my mind is that the Mets got the best pitcher in the universe for scraps, and we are willing to give up 2 of our top 3 prospects! When will the madness end, please make it end.
The counter should continue where it left off until this trade happens.
But, it may be best for our health and sanity to just say it’s already been reset.
I’m just sick of the whole thing…I just wish they’d do it or not, so we can get on with our lives…and the eventual dominoes can fall…you know, the overpaying for Gonzo or Wilkerson, then the move of Morrow and Horacio to the pen instead of AAA…the beginning of another terrible season…
Maybe the agenda should say, “Held for divine intervention” and give an ECD.
Hmmm. You could consider every day that they don’t DFA Ramirez, move Ibanez to 1B/DH, or install Morrow in the Tacoma rotation, to be a day with a bad move. So the counter is perpetually at zero.
I do love the hot stove, but I don’t enjoy having my face forcefully pressed against it.
If a bad move doesn’t go through despite our best efforts to hose ourselves, we can’t really take credit for it yet. I say keep counting.
Keep the counter going. As a total optimist, I am certain that the only one who can counteract the stupidity of Bavasi & Co. is Angelos & Co. This is a deal that we will look back on next year and laugh about how lucky we were that it didn’t go down.
Think of all the bad moves made within this non-bad-move (so far).
No, it has to start over. Rule C.5, subsection b.1 “If Management attempts to do something stupid but is prevented by causes other than their own good sense, said counter must be reset”
I say reset it. It was a bad move to pull Jones from Venezuela during their World Series, anyways.
On another note, Jones had 41 at-bats last season, not games, right?
ESPN
Keep it going! One of those “prospects” is going to come down with an “injury” and therefore the deal cannot be completed. It’s the only way we are going to get out of this i fear.
Can the counter be programmed to infinitely reset itself? It is now impossible to think “Mariners” and ignore the giant neon “Kick Me” sign which has been squarely fastened to the current regime. Whether the Jones/Bedard deal is consummated or not makes no difference because every second literally begs to be taken advantage of.
sass: 41 games, 65 at bats.
[violation of button agreement]
The Seattle Sports community has been placed on a state of hold recently… the Sonics lingering relocation, Holmgren’s returning decision and now the Bedard/Jones deal.
Wish that I could get excited about McPhail’s comments regarding other teams piping in but he’s just messing with us.
God help me, I’ve found the past several days incredibly amusing. Every new thing that happens is just one more scene in a script worthy of Telemundo.
How about a countdown clock to October 1, 2008, the approximate date on which Chuck Armstrong “retires” and Bill Bavasi “resigns” after the team, despite outstanding seasons from both Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, finishes 79-83 and 15 games behind the AL West division champion Angels and the AL wild card Yankees?
Same here. Once the front office decided to go with the deal, I’ve found that I been able to accept either outcome from the event.
Not that I don’t think one outcome shows frackin’ stupidity on the part of the local front office, but I’ve found that I can accept either outcome…
I say reset it as well. Based on all the happenings it appears the deal in its current form is off.
Grizz – Nice wishful thinking. I don’t see much chance in Armstrong or Lincoln leaving anytime soon. Even though most of this mess is their fault, a scapegoat will be found elsewhere.
I don’t think it matters if you reset the counter now or not. To me, it sounds like Bavasi is going to end up making a bad deal even worse with the news that other teams have inquired about Bedard. For all the moronic moves Bavasi has made, I can see him thinking to himself, “Oh man, I have to throw in a couple other guys now to make sure this works.”
When I first saw the quote from McPhail, I figured it was just a stupid ploy to try and get more from the M’s. Then I remembered who is pulling the strings for the M’s and just about threw up because it is bound to work.
The scapegoat will be the manager…the FO will take the stand that they put together a championship team, but then Mac couldn’t get them to win…
It’s my blind hope that Bill occasionally surfs over to USSM in times like these to check the consensus of the group here as a sort of litmus test to go forward with things.. or reel in the stupidity and go a different direction.
Bill.. if you’re watching.. DON’T DO IT. It costs them money each time the counter has to be reset. And you don’t want to do all that trade paperwork anyway.
Armstrong, I believe, turns 66 this year. If the season is unsuccessful, the title of his position with the team will include “Emeritus” or “Consultant.”
Maybe Bavasi had this planned all along, and now plans to at the last minute convince Baltimore to take Morrow instead of Jones.
I’d make that trade.
22- Even if the FO put together a championship team I think McLaren could reset the counter every inning he makes a poor decision. Like putting HoRam in or keeps Sexson at first after June 1st when he is hitting .208/.280/.350 but is just around the corner from turning it around. But Sexson would never be apart of a championship team so I guess that doesn’t make much sense.
Back to my point, McLaren is not good at his job.
I say reset the counter. The deal is done, we’ve got Bedard and no upcoming talent to look forward to for some time.
Someone needs to bring the counter idea to the park. Just like the hanging K’s to count strikeouts, we need a bad move counter with a ceremonial flipping of the card at a fixed point in every game.
That could make up for my failure to bring a giant sign with a dinosaur on it saying “Carl Everett never existed,” before it was too late to bother.
How ’bout a day of game counter at Safeco of poor McLaren moves? That would compete with the K-counter, at least.
Gotta keep it going. The Deal isn’t done yet.
28. I would contribute funds to that idea. 8th inning would be perfect, right about the time that Mac leaves Raul in to face oh, I don’t know, Sherill.
I think a few people might have mentioned it but this is ultimately a lose-lose situation for the informed/stat-minded blogosphere.
If the trades doesn’t happen and Bedard “outperforms” Jones (I am sure he will, but the argument will likely be base around wins) then that would not be fun to hear about.
Conversely, if Bedard leads the M’s to the playoffs to lose we’ll hear about what a good move it was and we just needed another veteran in the pen. Meanwhile, Jones and Markakis give Baltimore TWO all-stars a year instead of their customary one for a decade or so.
A win is a win, no matter how it happens. If Willie Bloomquist is out by three feet but the ump calls him safe, and he goes on to score the winning run, M’s still get a credit in the win column. So it doesn’t matter by what means a bad move is forestalled. Until the deal is done, the counter keeps counting.
God help me, I’ve found the past several days incredibly amusing. Every new thing that happens is just one more scene in a script worthy of Telemundo.
I agree. As someone who has followed the M’s, on and off, since the beginning I think that’s really the only sane approach. You have to find entertainment in the process because the outcome is so often so painful.
#25 – In the irrational part of my mind, I’ve been thinking the same thing. Maybe Bill is really a brilliant negotiator and tactical genius. Maybe he labeled Morrow “untouchable” at the beginning, only so at the last minute he could say “Ok, Pete, you win. I’m desperate. You can have Morrow instead of Jones”. We end up with Jones for the next 6 years on the cheap, Bedard joining Felix at the top or the rotation, 2/3 of a great defensive outfield, and real possibility of competing with the Angels.
Then I wake up…
32 – If only that were true…sigh
If the deal really is dead and all the other “die-hard” fans start hating Jones because of it, Can we start an Adam Jones fan club?
With Angelos emasculating Bavasi, perhaps we should reset the counter-tenor.
I do love the hot stove, but I don’t enjoy having my face forcefully pressed against it.
Geez, smb, I can’t believe that quote just got left sitting there. That’s my favorite comment of the year so far.
That could make up for my failure to bring a giant sign with a dinosaur on it saying “Carl Everett never existed,” before it was too late to bother.
You can put it in my closet, next to the suitcase with “CAREFUL” lettered on the side. I had intended to take that one to a game in which Kaz Sasaki pitched.
#32 — I think we’ve all had the same dream at one point!
It ain’t over until it’s over!
I think it’s been mentioned earlier in this Schrödinger’s Cat’s kitty litter box we’ve found ourselves in, but consider: when all this is resolved, the M’s will either have Bedard or they’ll have Jones and the other kids. Either way, at least they’re still the Mariners. The Orioles can look forward to one of the same two outcomes, but in the end they’ll still be stuck being the Orioles. No matter how you slice it, it’s better to be one of two big-budget teams in a four-team division than not being one of the two big-budget teams in a five-team division.
And Bavasi kept Jones in AAA so long and didn’t let him play much on the big squad last year so other teams wouldn’t see how good he was…yeah, Bavasi is really a genius…part of his “master plan”…
oh joser, why are you trying to look at the bright side of things?
I do love the hot stove, but I don’t enjoy having my face forcefully pressed against it.
Geez, smb, I can’t believe that quote just got left sitting there. That’s my favorite comment of the year so far.
Well, dang, I was hoping to steal it…
If the deal really is dead and all the other “die-hard” fans start hating Jones because of it, Can we start an Adam Jones fan club?
Well, I thought some of us was going to form an Adam Jones Fan Club anyway….
drjeff,
I think the suitcase would thus read: に注意, but don’t take my word(symbols) for it. Daimajin!
Amen to that, joser…there is a serene element of relief in not being the Orioles, even if they do get the better of a deal with us.
Don’t reset the counter.
I’m just a little nervous about this trade, so long as the rumors concerning who the M’s have to give up to get Bedard are true (Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, etc). If that’s how it pans out, I’m not too concerned about our future. I understand what we’ll be loosing in Jones, and would rather not have to part with him, but I think we can find a replacement for him eventually (even if that replacement doesn’t match his potentional)… Perhaps not this season, but why not during the next offseason with Sexson’s dollars off the books?
The way I see it, our rotation will be a helluva lot better than it was last season, and should negate the need to go to the bullpen so early, so loosing Sherrill won’t sting so much.
I also think it’s unlikely that Jones would be able to replace Guillen’s bat within the next year or two anyway. Our offense is obviously the biggest IF, and although I can hope for Sexson to have a career season in his final year with the M’s, I’m not going to count on it. What I believe I can count on though is that with or without Jones in our lineup, we’ll produce approximately the same number of runs if everyone else produces as they did last year.
So overall, at least for the next 2 years, I see our chances of getting into the postseason better by making this deal. Perhaps the game of chance is what’s so frightening to some, but that’s the way it works in this game… no one certainly saw a chance of making a playoff run late in the season this time last year.
What I am nervous about is Bavasi throwing in more than what has been rumored, but I don’t think him to be the fool the majority here seems to have picked him to be. I think in the end it will come down to what has been rumored the past few days, or no deal.
Finally, to come back to the topic, the counter shouldn’t be reset until further evidence later in the season. But that’s just my opinion.
someone needs to address these Adam Jones degenerative hip rumours
OK.. lets kill this deal and start the Wlad for Ian Snell thread…
Churchill reports that the deal is a 4-for-1 trade, and will be announced tomorrow or Friday.
I guess the only question is who is #4? Mickolio? Butler? Triunfel?
I guess I’m pulling for Mickolio?
The deal needs to be consummated before the counter can be re-set. If the counter re-set every time Bavasi simply wanted to make a bad deal, it would be constantly re-setting.
Reset it…don’t reset it…whatever. It’s a sad commentary when an organization’s fan base has to come up with a “Days Without a Bad Move” counter.
But I guess something like this should have been expected when you put Bavasi and Angelos together.
Reset it. The bad move was made in spirit if not reality. BTW, I love the moving target that is now the submit button.
perhaps we should reset the counter-tenor.
I first read that as “counter-terror” and thought, yes, we need a Threat Level indicator.
The current Threat Level of a bad moove is: Crimson – High
Other Threat Levels could be
Salmon – Elevated (may offer Sexson arbitraion)
Marigold – Moderate (may sign Gonzo to a 1 year deal)
Teal – Low (no likely roster moves)
Churchill’s also reporting that the deal was never completed, but that people in both FO’s leaked that it was. If it was never completed it’s not a move. A bad move should require a move and at present nothing has changed.
I can see removing Jones from availability twice as being 2 bad moves, but that’s marginal. Moves will happen, once they do it should be fairly obvious whether it’s good or bad.
JMHawk…I like the threat level idea. Could even have links related to the rumored bad moves lower in the box.
I still think there’s a chance Bavasi is doing this on purpose just to screw with Derek’s Bad Move Counter.
But how will I know my comment is free of spelling errors until I post it and allow hundreds of fellow commentors to proof-read it for me free-of-charge?!
In any case, I vote we put the counter at -2 in anticipation of an official Bad Move on Friday.
I often wonder if Dave and Derek wonder what kind of monster they’ve created.
They know quite well (they can read, can’t they?).
I think the counter should only be reset when the moves are officially announced.
We need another counter for how many bad moves are made.
Then at the end of each season we could compute bad moves per year. Sort of a Bad-moving average. The beginners among us can track management trends across years using this metric.
Then the real statgeeks can factor in the good moves in an Overall Move stat and figure out how much worse (or better) some moves are in a Strength of Move stat.
Soon enough we’ll have an Overall Move plus Strength of Move number (OPS) to evaluate management trends and compare organizations.
Can we please have the counter-terror level indicator? I think the site *really* needs this.
What’s the point? Churchill says the deal is done tomorrow or friday. Whether we reset it or not, we’ll be reseting it again tomorrow or friday when it is “official.”
59. No offense to Jason, but when’s the last time Churchill was right?
Desmond, like most of the people defending the trade, you don’t take fielding into account at all, and it’s a big deal. You can’t talk about a big improvement to the rotation without considering the damage being done to the defense behind them.
Baker has.
oh, and I think this counts towards ‘danger averted’:
“Free agent Jeff Cirillo is leaning towards retirement since the Brewers aren’t interested in his services.
Cirillo, who lives in Seattle, said he was only interested in leaving his family if the Brewers wanted him back. The Mariners don’t need him, so it could be that he’s done. He indicated that he might join the Brewers in a non-playing role.”
In my opinion Cirillo would be a better option than Cairo.
61- I was defending the trade, but only to the extent that I don’t believe it to be as bad as everyone here is making it out to be. Your point on defense is taken. Jones would add a lot to Right field with his speed, which would even allow Ichiro to shift to the Left some to cover some of Raul’s territory. But in comparing last season to this coming season, Guillen was pretty average in Right field last year, so I don’t see how replacing him with someone other than Jones makes us any worse on defense this year.
63
Speaking of Cairo, what is this organization’s fascination w/ players who can’t walk?
You know, as somebody who negotiates frequently as part of my job (attorney), I am just stunned by Bavasi’s negotiation “tactics.” He has made it PAINFULLY clear that he wants this deal done, wants it done badly, and at pretty much any price that even borders on reasonable. While the other side dithers for weeks or months or whatever it has been, he keeps spouting that same desire to cut a deal, and then when they back off of or delay what was apparently a done (or nearly done deal), he doesn’t fold up his table, walk away, and say, “These guys are nuts, we’re going with what we have.” Plus he has set it up so that most of the fan base would view him pulling out of it as failing to get that all-important No. 1 starter. Bavasi is displaying precisely the sort of desperation you want on the other side of the table because they will inevitably overpay. Angelos doesn’t need to decide quickly or be reasonable because there is apparently nothing that will cause Bavasi to axe the deal. What an embarrassment.
Does 7yrs/$100M do anything to make giving up Jones less painful?
Basically that would be 5yrs/$80M for the additional control years and the final year would be his 35th on this earth. Frankly, I would do that since armageddon is going to occur in 2012.
66 – Amen. Its disturbing how key skills that most organizations need in order to be successful are just lacking in the M’s front office. Negotiation, strategy, positioning, organizational development, talent acquisition, etc. All of these are fundamental keys to any good organization, but somehow the M’s are missing ALL of them. Ugggh. I hope they clean house soon.
Baker has the Adam Jones interview up on his blog. It’s a bit of a poor recording, but it’s there none the less.
When three long-retired MLB veterans unanimously agree trading prospects for pitchers like Santana and Bedard is a mistake, it makes you wonder if the criteria for qualifying to be a GM ought to be a little more stringent. Obviously these 3 qualify, as does Brian Cashman.
A like-minded blogfriend, “Jere” of “A Red Sox Fan In Pinstripe Territory”, blogged the following earlier today. He refers to a benefit dinner and roundtable discussion by Bill “the Spaceman” Lee, Oil Can Boyd, and Rich Gedman on Jan. 17th in Windsor Locks, CN, but the part of the blog entry that got my attention was:
Recently, at the Boyd/Lee/Gedman dinner, the panel was asked if they thought the Red Sox should trade young kids for Johan Santana. As all three former players enthusiastically shook their heads “no,” the audience full of Red Sox fans cheered wildly in agreement.
The other night at the New York baseball writers’ dinner, a pro-Yankee crowd (as well as Theo Epstein) applauded just as loud when Brian Cashman suggested avoiding a similar Santana trade.
Okay, so both fanbases have learned the important general lesson that just buying superstars is not the way to win. We learned this from the fact that the Yanks won before they started overpaying for really big stars, and then stopped winning once they got to a point where they basically had an All-Star at every position. And we learned this from the fact that the Red Sox have developed a farm system which has been turning out golden-coated rookies lately, and combined with the stars we already had, has led to great success for the big club.
Sorry, I thought the quote (the last 3 paragraphs) would be in a quote box. and Jere’s blog is at http://letsgosox.blogspot.com/ if you care to read the entire entry. Sorry about that.
I’ve tried a bunch of searches on this site and can’t really find an appropriate post to answer this question. What do I say to my (idiot) housemates who are claiming even 150 million dollars would be a fair price for Johan Santana, because he is “the single most valuable player in Major League Baseball”. I don’t expect Dave or DMZ to help with this one, just hopefully a USS Mariner member who is more well versed in explaining the value of a single pitcher to an organization. Would it be a “wins added” argument? If anybody could offer a quick breakdown or point me to a relevant article, it would be greatly appreciated, and allow me to help spread the gospel.
Desmond – Where is your basis for Guillen was average in right last year? I thought most of the metrics had him around 15 runs below average, give or take a couple depending which metric you’re using.
OppoField,
Here are a couple you can look at:
Dave’s post on Budgeting Wins sets an average of $2M per marginal win (but with caveats).
This post on Market Rate’s breaks it out by service time. Pre-arb players make about $500k per Marginal win, arb players make about $2M per, and Free Agents make $4M per marginal win.
I’m not sure any longer where the best place to find projeted win value is any more (maybe another USSM Swabbie can pitch in there), but now all you have to do is find that number for Johan over the contract years, multiply by 4, and see what his value is.
And then have your housemates call you a boring stat geek or something, no doubt.
Given that he was taken out of games for defensive purposes a fair number of times, it would seem that the team didn’t consider him an average defender…
Much appreciated JM! I love this place.
On MLB.com it says the O’s are trying to sign Bedard to a five-year deal to prevent the trade from happening. I’m guessing you would be all for that, Dave.
Wouldn’t it be easier to start a “for __ days, the Mariners did something good” counter? Probably have shorter runs.
77-
Given this latest verbage from the O’s, along with the incoming interest of “shadow” teams and the overall flakiness of the owner, is it now time to cut bait on this thing and look for another starting pitcher with a lesser pricetag.
I was for this trade at first because I believed Bedard’s value to this team would be fairly consistent towards expectations whereas Jones could hit alot of different points along the same line. But the O’s handling of this is so ridiculously disrespectful and audacious towards the M’s management that I’d rather find a suitable #2 or #3 for half the trade chips from another team and go that way.
I’ve seen it in past threads, but are there availble options out there for the M’s that might not carry the Jones price tag? (or a gem in our own system that might be some relief to the starting 5 come August) I’ve seen names from the Rays and Pirates organization thrown about.
Desmond,
My condolences on trying to submit some logic on behalf of this trade. You will only receive scorn. This site has turned into the sports version of Fox News. Only one side of an issue is allowed.
Oh yeah, and 20: Armstrong and Lincoln are the problem. Absolutely. Without them, the team would have been playing in Tampa Bay for years now, and there’d be nothing to bitch about without an MLB team here.
The overwhelming GM philosophy seems to be to get the missing piece, no matter the cost.
Unfortunately, we have more than one missing piece, and we’re about to create two more.
I think we have a two-step process, that Bavasi is looking to 2009. By then, he’ll have his rotation set, there’ll be a better FA class, and the Ms will have lots of money to spend.
(In light of the Santana trade, however, he seems to be over-paying, really over-paying.)
You’re talking, aren’t you?
Nah, I think you’re peeved because your arguments get shot down so often. If you had better arguments, you wouldn’t get shot down so much and you’d see more support
I think that’s relevant. Wish more of the Bedard proponents would answer it without running down Jones.
gwanggung,
I don’t mind debating…in fact, I like it. Not even peeved. Just not sure how exactly an argument on behalf of a guy who can strike out 221 guys in 182 innings in the AL East is so obviously wrong to so many people here. I agree, it might work out well…it might work out badly. But there is no way to say for sure now.
And for what it’s worth, if you read the comments on the Baltimore site like this one you’ll see how many people are threatening to jump off buildings…or at least refusing to ever visit Camden again…if this deal goes down.
Incredible how many stupid people there are in Baltimore, isn’t it?
It’s not that your numbers are wrong, it’s the weight that you attach to them. It’s disproportionate.
If the popular opinion was always correct, it’d be a pretty boring world.
And if you don’t understand why so many people think that this is a bad move, I don’t really know what to say to that. We’ve posted some pretty decent explanations of why we think it’s a bad deal, and many of the comments these last few days have been even more eloquent in their explanations. If you’ve read them and considered them and still don’t at least understand where they stand, I don’t know what more is to be done for you.
is it now time to cut bait on this thing and look for another starting pitcher with a lesser pricetag
Ladies and Gentlemen, please put your hands together for Mr. Cha-Seung Baek. Mr. Baek is a 27 year old Right handed starter who makes peanuts and turned in the second best xFIP of the Mariner’s starters last year.
Cha-Seung is coming off an injury, so in the wings we have Mr Ryan Rowland-Smith. RRS is a 25 year old LHP who makes even fewer peanuts than Baek and struck out 42 in only 38 and two thirds innings of relief work last year.
See #81.
Adding Bedard to the team AND NOT CHANGING THE REST OF THE TEAM would be great. Adding Bedard and creating two more holes now and some potential holes in the future is not the same thing.
Some folks have estimated the cost to production of the players that may be given up. I’ve yet to see a good pro-Bedard argument that takes that into account. (And, “you never know” is a terrible argument).
I don’t have the words to express how amazingly offensive I find this comment to be.
If you don’t like it here, I’m sure Derek will be happy to refund your subscription fee, and you can find another site that is more to your taste.
88
Oh, now I get it. Not being able to predict the future is a terrible argument. But you and your SABR-metrics can! How foolish of me to even speak up!
So, let me ask you one more. Was trading Hanley for Beckett a good idea or not? (And by even asking this, I’m allowing you to put Hanley and AJ in the same category).
90: Okay, I see the flaw in your logic. Since Hanley will someday be moved to the outfield, I guess you can compare that trade to this one (barely). This was a good idea for Boston because, unlike with the Jones/Bedard trade, Boston actually has OTHER outfielders in their system who could replace Hanley, and not only do the Mariners have no one to replace Jones, this organization has had, over the last 20 years, had as many ML-caliber outfielders come out of their farm system as fingers on one of my hands.
The Beckett/Hanley trade was a good idea for Boston because they could replace Hanley, and has a GM that knows what he is doing.
If you ignore others’ arguments, you shouldn’t be surprised to find yourself talking to yourself…..
Bill James says “Hi” from Boston.
I think that this site can be interesting and entertaining when there’s informed debate with advocates on both sides of an issue. My impression is that the authors of this site don’t host it so that they can discuss issues with people who agree with them, and that they and many others welcome informed debate and differing points of view.
Uninformed pronouncements are a good deal less interesting to me (as a reader), and I can understand why people who put time and energy into writing articles that advocate a particular point of view and try to back up their arguments with facts and the best predictive devices they can find get frustrated when people ignore that effort.
I tend to agree with the point of view that says that the Jones+ for Bedard trade is a bad idea, but I’d also respect a counterargument that’s well-reasoned and well-presented. I’ve never seen anyone get flamed here for disagreeing with the site authors’ point of view; I have seen people get flamed for apparently not making any effort to understand the basis for that point of view, and/or for basing arguments on easily refuted foundations.
“This site has turned into the sports version of Fox News.”
I always assumed we were more like CNN and Geoff Baker and his followers were the Fox News. Maybe its just because the beliefs on this site make more sense, just like liberal views do. (Sorry, I don’t mean to offend any conservatives here, it’s just my opinion.)
Personally, I am seriously considering buying an AJ jersey. It would be awesome to see a bunch of these at Safeco, even if the deal doesn’t go down.
(Or maybe, if Bedard signs a long term deal with the O’s, an Angelos jersey?)
These days, I think that’s kinda insulting….
95,95 –
I’d say this site is more like reading scholarly journal entries (from places like foreignpolicy.com). The mainstream sports websites are the FOXs and CNNs. ESPN can be CNN because at least they try and have some smart ideas but overall are a bit uninformed and cater to the general public (like CNN). Sports Illustrated can be FOX. Hate Sports Illustrated…
Fox News, CNN…both have agendas and use the same stuff with different spin. This site is far better than either.
Ok, what I meant was how this site is more like CNN of Mariners’ blogs and Geoff Baker is more like Fox News of Mariners’ blogs. I don’t know of any other blogs for the Mariners, but they are probably the Independents.
Nah, this site is like Keith Olbermann’s show on MSNBC, where he talks about things the “real” news shows won’t cover, he doesn’t let people shout at each other during the show, and there’s always that smart ass humor lingering in the background.
I’d have to go with Baker’s blog as CNN (I think he’s respectable, it’s the rabble he’s aroused that I can’t take), and the PI blog as Fox (pretty much no content, but lots of strong opinions).
At least one of us is the Kitsap Sun, right?
smb – Haha.
Haven’t we offended them enough for one month? You number-loving cybergeek.
Jeff Nye – you have no business finding that sort of comment disrespectful, given that you have ceaselessly put down Willie Bloomquist as of late. If being compared to an unreputable news source is so offensive to you, you ought to find another site to post on, because being insulted is half of what goes on here lately.
101 – I am part of the Kitsap Sun Is Awesome Crew, due to my appreciation of Willie Bloomquist, and my fondness for articles mentioning Richie Sexson and bank robbers (if anyone knows what I am talking about).
Actually, I’ve pretty much always put down Willie, particularly when he opens his mouth about wanting to play like a starter when he can’t, well, play like a starter.
Maybe we need to add something to the button about “I’m not here just to try to pick fights with people”, too.
I’m not sure why anybody is surprised by groupthink (right or wrong as it may be) at any site on the internet. People tend to congregate with others they agree with. If you agree with what the authors of a site write, you’re more likely to come back repeatedly and become a part of the community. That’s a major part of the reason that you’ll never see a good, coherent, and supportable post that is counter to whatever the general USSM opinion is.
I’d say that’s only in general; i.e., a stats based view supplemented by visual scouting. If you’re not comfortable with stats or numbers, of course you’re not going to stick around.
For specific cases, I think you’ll find folks disagreeing when the stats are ambiguous. (Hm. Perhaps the case of Clement may be applicable).
90- Um, it’s not about predicting the future with certainty. It’s about using informed statistical analysis to say what is MOST LIKELY to happen. Saying “anything can happen” means absolutely nothing. For example, the Pirates can win the World Series in 2008. That’s irrefutable. Where you would rightly object is by saying that they are HIGHLY unlikely to do so. That’s the basic objection I have to the Bedard trade. The Mariners simply aren’t the favorites to win the division with Bedard. I doubt it’s even a coinflip. Realistically, they have probably a 30% chance or so, but because of Jones’ offensive/defensive value and Sherrill’s value in the pen, their chances don’t seem much worse with Jones… say 20-25% or so. If you think it’s worth mortgaging the franchise’s future to still only have an outside chance at making the playoffs this year, that’s where you’ll encounter a lot of opposition. The only way to rationally support the trade is to argue that the M’s become the favorites to win the West with Bedard, and that they’re unlikely to make it with Jones. You’d pretty much have to take the M’s 88 wins in 2007 at face value, believe they can replace Jose Guillen’s value in right field, and hope that any player decline will be offset by other players improving or rebounding.
As for the Boston/Florida trade, Boston was in a much more competitve position before the trade than Seattle is before acquiring Bedard, so it made sense for Boston to make that move to get over the hump. Seattle’s barely in shouting distance of the hump.
The Mariners can finish in second with Bedard just the same as they can with Jones, and they’re likely not going to win anything now or in the foreseeable future. Given that near certainty, I’d rather watch Jones every day for the next six years than Bedard every fifth day for the next two.
That’s a major part of the reason that you’ll never see a good, coherent, and supportable post that is counter to whatever the general USSM opinion is.
That’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve read in days, and that’s saying something.
What happens when Dave and I disagree on things? Do you expect people’s heads to explode? Mass exodus? Dogs and cats living together?
Taylor, please, take a break from USSM for a while. You’re clearly not having a good time if you think insulting’s half of what goes on.
Well, there were a couple messes in July and August, I believe, someone had to clean up…
(Hm…groupthink to a certain extent is correct, if we’re talking about comfort with numbers and using somewhat abstract measuring scales; if you’re not comfortable or able to use stats, you’re not going to present a cogent, well organized argument that counters the prevailing train of thought around here….)
I love reading this blog. I usually don’t post but after reading Diderot and Taylor H’s posts I felt compelled to say that if they have a problem with this site then don’t visit it.
I agree with Jeff Nye about the Willie Bloomquist issue as well. I don’t have a problem with him. He is great in his role, but he needs to accept the fact that he doesn’t have the skills to be an everyday player. So he should shut his mouth about being one.
I still don’t get why people hang out here or any other blog if they dislike it. Me, I have fun here.
If you substitute “posters” for “fans, and “site” for “ballpark,” I think Yogi had the right idea:
I don’t think that its so much groupthink. I think its more the fact that Dave and Derek are very well educated about baseball analysis, and let people know their opinions about what the Mariners do, and let people decide for themselves whether they agree with Dave and Derek. I happen to not agree with everything, but it seems that Dave and Derek can many times break their arguements down to an intellectual and statistical level to where you’d have to not be terribly smart to disagree with them on most things. Alot of times people who try to argue with Dave or Derek usually can’t argue back intellectually and have to resort to Ad Hominen, where they usually call Dave a pessimist because he doesn’t agree that Mariners should give up Jones for Bedard.
I don’t think Dave or Derek would feel so strongly about something if they didn’t 100% know that they were right. You guys both do a great job on this blog and has helped me open my eyes and makes me feel alot more educated about the team and baseball in general. Now don’t go calling them Fox News, if anything they expose what’s wrong about the organization that management would rather keep quiet about.
Keep the counter until it’s a done deal.
The saddest thing about this deal is that, as bad as the M’s record is for developing players, Adam Jones is far less likely to develop as a player with the dysfunctional Orioles, where the fans–to the extent they care at all–will look on him as the savior of the franchise, or “the guy we traded Bedard for”, than with the M’s, who after all have Ichiro and Felix and JJ to give him cover as he develops. I’ve always wondered how Jose Cruz, Jr. would have turned out if he had been allowed to stay in Seattle, instead of becoming the hope of the Blue Jays franchise, a tag he wasn’t capable of handling.
Was trading Hanley for Beckett a good idea or not? (And by even asking this, I’m allowing you to put Hanley and AJ in the same category).
By even asking that question, you have shown yourself to be woefully unfamiliar with the main argument against the trade. Not that this comes as a surprise to anyone who’s read more than 3 of your comments.
QOTD from the ESPN forums:
“It’s always high comedy when two incompetently run franchises attempt to do business with one another.”
I walked into this bar in Enumclaw last night. All the guys were wearing cowboy hats and boots. I was really thirsty though, so I decided to order a beer. Everyone was courteous to me, even though I totally didn’t fit in.
So, I strolled over to the juke box, put in a dollar, and searched for my favorite Eminem song. I was awe struck! Garth Brooks? Tim McGraw? I told them this music sucks.
For the most part, people just stared at me. A couple guys pointed out that I was wrong, and if I didn’t like it, perhaps I should go somewhere that suits my tastes better.
Can you believe that?? I can’t walk into a hick bar and diss on country music? They said I could stay, but I had to be respectful. HA! What has this world come to, anyway?
Let me add here that I wasn’t using the term groupthink in an attempt to cast a negative light on this site. The word fits because you’ve created a community of increasingly intelligent baseball fans that can follow your arguments and come to the same conclusions. People who disagree in the comments are usually of the type that refer to your ‘magical numbers’ not knowing everything – which is very different from when one author disagrees with another. Can anyone find me an example of someone in the comments putting forth an argument that isn’t immediately dismissed as ridiculous by most of the other people commenting? Highly unlikely.
What happens when Dave and I disagree on things? Do you expect people’s heads to explode? Mass exodus? Dogs and cats living together?
Not at all. On the very rare occasions where you guys disagree, you’ll see commenters split on either side because the authors are actually able to make reasonable and supportable arguments that oppose each other.
So how much money do they have to throw at Bedard to make him sign the extension and nix this deal? AND if he does, where will Bavasi go to get ripped off next?
Keep the counter, just because you’ll start it over again when and if the deal is finalized.
Carson:
I’ve been to that bar. I stayed and had a few brews, listening to the regulars banter about the advantages of Albama and Trisha Yearwood. At the end of the evening I still wasn’t a big fan of country, but at least I had a better understanding of why some folks like and value the genre.
How deep is the farm system in Seattle? Are they really mortgaging the future with this trade? I want to see Adam Jones play in Seattle, but I think locking up two of the best pitchers in baseball for 4 or 5 years is a pretty good thing. It would appear that while this won’t get the Mariners into the playoffs in 08, but neither would keeping Jones in Seattle. With Sexson and Vidro coming off the books in 09 and hopefully Wlad and Morrow ready for prime time in 09, the team wouldn’t need much else to field a very good team in 09. Am I way out of line?
BTW – I read all the posts and being a numbers guy, I totally get and respect the argument from Dave, but I’m still not convinced this is the worst move ever. If entirely empties the farm system and it is going to make it 3-4 years before we’ll get another person up into the bigs, I get that, but it doesn’t seem like that is the case.
It’s interesting that the Orioles fans don’t want the trade to happen either, but I imagine nobody wants to lose a Cy Young pitcher and it doesn’t appear they understand Jones’ value.
diderot – 80
No condolences necessary.
For the record, I enjoy this blog, and in fact it’s the only one I read on a regular basis. I just wish I had the time to contribute to the conversation more.
I made my first comment on this topic because I thought I should try my hand at presenting what I believed to be a fairly decent argument in favor of the Bedard trade. But keep in mind that I’m not gung-ho for this trade, I only defend it to the point that I’m not as worried about it as others seem to be. Someone tried to counter my argument by stating Guillen was less than average on defense (if I understood his statement correctly), but that supports my belief that we’re not worse off in defense this coming season w/o Jones in RF (so I’m not entirely sure if he got my point). I agree with the argument that this trade still doesn’t guarantee a playoff birth, and should we never make the playoffs, it will certainly hurt our future beyond the next 2-3 years. But what guarantee is there that we’ll make the playoffs once Jones reaches his prime?
I may not be a numbers geek, but I am a Mariners geek (that’s probably an oxymoron on this blog, huh?). I agree with numbers to a certain extent, and realize that baseball decisions (on & off the field) mostly derive from numbers, but I don’t believe them to be the end-all in those decisions. I find it hard to believe that we’ll ever begin the season with a guarantee to make the playoffs based on numbers.
Deal or no deal, either way, I won’t be loosing any sleep over this
I realize now that I’m not probably not properly valuing Jones’ offense…
124- I can see how both fan bases are against it because either way Bal or Sea is not winning the WS and having a hard time getting into the playoffs at all this year. Fans get attached to their players and don’t want to see them tossed away by bad management. That is the simple argument most fans come up with in my opinion.
I could talk myself in to Bedard easily cause he would be fun to watch every 5 days. I have no control how Bavasi messes up this organization so I try not to get into the details of it and just hope players that are fun to watch end up on the roster. Guillen was one of my favorite players on the roster last year just cause I thought he was enjoyable to watch play the game of baseball. In a season where the chances we make the playoffs are slim either move we make, might as well just enjoy the game of baseball.
All that said I have become a die hard fan of this site and love all the information floating around and agree with the authors most of the time. But the little kid baseball fan in me keeps from getting to upset because either way I will be watching baseball in a month.
A lot of people who don’t pay any attention to the M’s havn’t a clue who Adam Jones even is, much less what is value to a team would be.
Oh yeah, and 20: Armstrong and Lincoln are the problem. Absolutely. Without them, the team would have been playing in Tampa Bay for years now, and there’d be nothing to bitch about without an MLB team here.
I’m not sure if this is sarcasm, but you seem to mis-remember what happened. The voters rejected funding for a new baseball only facility. Howard Lincoln got on TV at a press conference and brought his crying grandson up so everyone could see what a horrible thing they had done. At that point the state gov’t stepped in and pushed the funding through on their own. Lincoln’s behavior was bad pool, plain and simple.
How deep is the farm system in Seattle? Are they really mortgaging the future with this trade? I want to see Adam Jones play in Seattle, but I think locking up two of the best pitchers in baseball for 4 or 5 years is a pretty good thing. It would appear that while this won’t get the Mariners into the playoffs in 08, but neither would keeping Jones in Seattle. With Sexson and Vidro coming off the books in 09 and hopefully Wlad and Morrow ready for prime time in 09, the team wouldn’t need much else to field a very good team in 09. Am I way out of line?
I wouldn’t say you’re out of line, perhaps just off-base a little. Yes, Sexson and Vidro have their contracts comming off the books, but to be competitive we need to not just replace their bats, but preferably upgrade them (and in Sexson’s case, upgrade defense as well). If Jones is gone, then there’s one more bat and glove to upgrade. If the dollars for Sexson and Vidro go to the rotation, (and here I’m rehashing a previous comment I made), how do we upgrade three positions when there aren’t upgrades lurking in our farm system? Wlad might become an everyday player, but his potential upside is less than Jones, so he’s not an upgrade.
Yeah, how silly of me. Keeping the franchise here gives Lincoln a free pass on any bad decision he makes for the rest of time.
Because, we would totally rather root for a poorly run franchise than none at all, right?
Woohoo. The Marlin’s have saved us from ourselves.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7742502/Source:-Gonzalez,-Marlins-agree-to-deal
Well, if this deal does go down we won’t have to worry about an Ibanez-Ichiro!-Gonzalez outfield this year.
Carlos Triunfel ranked #18 on Keith Law’s prospect rankings this morning.
Well, actually, he gets a slightly discounted pass.
Just means I’ll take the volume down one or two decibles when I think he does something stupid…
FYI, Howard Lincoln was not involved in team management during the push for a new stadium. It was John Ellis. Also, Chuck Armstrong was not President for a stretch as he was running City Light. I do not remember when he returned to the team though.
Giving credit to Lincoln and Armstrong for Safeco is flat wrong.
First, plenty of people come here and disagree with Dave and DMZ’s opinions. I guarantee you could count at least fifty different commenters disagreeing with Dave and Derek’s opinions about the Bedard trade alone. So while it’s true that there’s a lot of agreement among commenters here as a rule — as has been pointed out, we come here because we find the writing of the authors sensible and enlightening — it is obviously (unless you have a chip on your shoulder) untrue that you can’t express a contrary opinion. It’s true that if you simply repeat the opinions of others, or appear to ignore the arguments you disagree with, your opinions won’t meet with a lot of respect. It’s true that no one’s going to pretend your opinion is equal just because you expressed it. But people are happy to engage politely with polite and informed disagreement, as Desmond has shown in this thread, despite Diderot’s eagerness to claim Desmond as a persecuted brother in arms.
One further note about “groupthink” and the conversation here: I know a hell of a lot less about baseball than Dave and Derek. I’m not ignorant, but these guys are serious students of the game, spending a huge part of their lives thinking about it and observing it. I’m hear mostly to listen to them, and ask questions, and on occasion to disagree respectfully, as a student might. I think many people here feel the same way. If we agree a lot, is is because we’re learning from a couple of teachers. If you don’t like the idea of this being closer to a classroom than a free conversation among equals, you really ought to consider whether you’re going to be comfortable here. It’s okay to think that it makes this a snobby site run by people who brook no disagreement, if that’s how you want to deal with it; but having an attitude about it in the comment threads is just silly.
If the dollars for Sexson and Vidro go to the rotation, (and here I’m rehashing a previous comment I made), how do we upgrade three positions when there aren’t upgrades lurking in our farm system?
Is that what is happening? Bedard wants 100 million over 7 years. He probably won’t get that. Maybe 10-12 million a year. Wasn’t that Weaver’s salary?
I don’t understand why they let Guillen go. Was it just concern about his steroid use and “tainting” the good name of the Mariners. No, he wasn’t great but he seemed to be somewhat of a leader, with good pop
Sorry for being grumpy, guys. I am sorry for offending anyone here at USSM, I enjoy being part of the community here. I apologize to, namely: Jeff Nye, DMZ, Dave, and the rest of the crew. No more will I complain when there is discussion of differing opinions, since that is what makes this site so interesting. Anyway, I guess the whole point of USSM is to argue and discuss baseball, while being adult about it. Also, I guess comment 135 hit the bulleye, in that from now on, I think we all – especially myself – should be more studentlike when we post. I wouldn’t have disrespected my teachers, so I shouldn’t disrespect DMZ and Dave (who equivalent to our teachers), since they allow us all to post. I think someone said a while ago that Dave and DMZ have hitorically been right about the M’s moves, which is why they argue dilligently against the Bedard trade and the farm system and so on; I did some research, and you guys really have been right about nearly everything. To sum everything up: sorry guys. Please do not delete my comment, mods. This is important for me to say, and this post is almost dead.
Back to baseball:
The M’s let Guillen go most likely because they knew he might have to miss considerable playing time, such as 1/7 of the whole season.
The M’s ought to lock up Bedard for a while. My suggestion: 5 years, 60 million – then trade him during the fifth year of his contract for a certain young Oriole star outfielder. Hey, it could happen.
I can’t be the only person who sees Richie — God love him, I’m sure he’s a very nice fellow — as a black hole on offense, and, alas, the very opposite on defense. It’s hard to imagine having a working lineup with him in it (unless one is ready to buy into the “he’s going to have breakout year” koolaid), nor a reasonable defensive infield.
I realize we’re all about the Bedard thing right now, but is that really going to matter if we’re stuck with this (very nice guy) boat anchor at first? Having even a major upgrade in our rotation doesn’t help if we have crappy defense and crappy offense behind improved pitching, right?
Taylor, that was well done.
Taylor:
No worries, and thank you for the nice words.
I apologize, also, if I might have come across as less conciliatory than I might have been; criticism of me, I can handle (it’s par for the course doing this sort of moderation), but there have been a lot of rather personal attacks on the authors here lately, and Dave, DMZ, and JMB (even though we haven’t seen him in a while) have really done an amazing service to us as Mariners fans, and baseball fans in general, by putting their time and sweat into this site for little to no compensation; I have no tolerance for people being mean to them (not addressing to you, specifically, those people know who they are).
So, it’s been a frustrating few days all around, particularly with how emotionally charged this potential trade (should we still be calling it that?) has the potential to be.
Let’s all try to step up our game, moving forward, and remember that we can disagree and still be friends.
According to the Baltimore Sun we are giving up Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Mickolio, and Butler. Are we only getting Bedard in return? Or has anyone heard if the Orioles are sending us back at least some minor league arms?