PECOTAs are out! Wooooooooo!
I know this shows what a dork I am, but the PECOTA forecasts are out! Even if you’re not a fan of Steve Goldman and Dan Fox, subscribing to BP is worth it just for PECOTA season.
Fun stuff. Random notes:
* Bedard’s 2008 puts him at about +4 wins over a replacement pitcher, making him the 10th-most-valuable pitcher in baseball.
* Jones’s 2008 puts him at about +2 wins over a replacement player, and his comps are not qhat I’d expected: Steve Hosey, Chet Lemon, Larry Hisle, and Jack Clark
* Jones’ upside, which is a measure of his potential over the next five years, is 198. That’s the 19th-highest for hitters in all of baseball
* All of baseball
* It’s just behind BJ Upton and ahead of Curtis Granderson
* Bedard’s is 232, the 7th-highest pitcher number, and just ahead of Felix.
* Jones’ total contribution in 2008 is the highest of any Mariner hitter
Okay, I’ll stop with the Jones stuff. What else…hitters:
* PECOTA still hates Ichiro. I look forward to the annual “you know, I think this year it might be right” post.
* Clement comes off better than I thought he might
* Sexson bounces, but not too high
* Lopez’s line is ugly
* Wilkerson’s at .232/.326/.420, a big step back from Guillen’s 2007
* Vidro hits .282/.346/.373 which is even lower than I guessed at in the “Projecting the 2008 Mariners” post a week ago
* Balentien’s line as a major leaguer is bad
* Small steps back for Beltre, Johjima, Betancourt, Ibanez
* Bloomquist is mercifully left off
As a team, the current lineup looks like it drops 10 points of OBP and 20 points of SLG. Dropping the Ichiro forecast, it’s maybe 5 points of OBP and 10 points of slugging — so offensively, they drop a game in the standings.
Pitchers:
* Progress for Felix
* Little bit of regression for Putz
* HoRam is listed as “swing” and is bad
* Washburn and Batista both go badly (150 IP of worse than 2007)
* Silva’s line is uuuuuuuuugly. Really ugly. How bad? It’s about where Jeff Weaver’s 2008 projection is.
* Sherrill’s the third-best pitcher on the team at +13 runs over replacement (making him+Jones just shy of Bedard’s contribution)
Overall, with Bedard, it’s a low-walk, low-K staff with about a 4.50 ERA, and only one serious groundball pitcher in Felix (only one seems like an odd projection, I’ll have to think about that more). The pitching side improves, but on the whole it doesn’t improve much at all. 30 runs, maybe? I’d have to go crunch that one out — I can’t eyeball pitching stats the same way I can the offensive numbers. It might be less of an improvement, if you threw the defense in there to get to a runs-per-game number.
Anyway — yeah, check it out. I love PECOTA forecasts, and totally recommend them for your forecast needs. Nate does a great job, and I look forward to the more formal player cards. If nothing else, they’ve always served me well in thinking about comparable players, development paths, and giving me a point to challenge my own conception of a player. When the cards come out, even if you don’t normally read BP, it’d be worth a month’s subscription just to be able to browse those things.
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Jones upside is ahead of Curtis Granderson? Wow.
Bedard’s upside is ahead of Felix? Double wow. But I guess every year that goes by until Felix “puts it together” is another year that knocks that down.
BP’s site won’t let me access the files despite the fact that I’m a subscriber. Super suck
Good to see Jones with such a nice outlook. I hope Baltimore appreciates him (I haven’t seen enough appreciation on their message boards, by God).
I believe you have to be a yearly subscriber to get the PECOTA spreadsheet. That’s how they got me last year.
Is it possible to get a gift subscription to BP for someone?
Does Bavasi have a birthday coming up soon? Like.. the next day or two?
Ichiro will forever defy PECOTA and scoff at his ‘08 Collapse Rate of 58%.
Doesn’t make you just so excited for the season to start?
So the offense is Ichiro & Eight? Sounds like the name of a bad J-pop group.
How bad are the As supposed to be this year, with Beane’s rebuilding project in full swing?
I just suscribed for the Premium package. Thats $40 that BP received due to USSMariner. All I can say, is: OMG! Wait…this deserves a ‘OMG!!!111!!!11one!!!!obi-1!!!11!’ An absolute wealth of detailed knowledge of everything baseball. BP for the win.
The thing to consider is that “upside” is just a wacky way of looking at what a player’s development could look like. That Bedard is ahead of Felix doesn’t mean that Bedard will have a better career from here out, but that the best case for him over the next five is better than Felix’s. That’s reasonable, when you consider where they both are in their careers.
You could also always support USSM, cough cough.
How many beers would it take to get you to share that spreadsheet, Derek?
hub you could do a bit of a Google search for David Cameron or Zumsteg and Baseball Prospectus, it will really make you appreciate how lucky M’s fans are to have a blog like this available focusing on our team.
Aye, indeed. I am most thankful for the amazing work of all here at USSMariner. Barely 2 years ago I was the typical, ‘Ms are good ’cause Niehaus says they are…Hey, Bloomquist is 5-for-8 lifetime against this pitcher!…ERA-this, and RBI-that.’ Then came USSMariner. And its been a great learning experience ever since.
From detailed Mariner analysis and projections, to explaining newer (and better) ways to study the game, to introducing average Joe-Fan to the next level of baseball enlightenment….USSMariner has transformed the fanbase in a great and positive way.
I look forward to many more seasons, and many more lessons. Thanks again for your work, gents.
Oh, and I’m sorry if bringing up the past work isn’t appreciated. I don’t know the details of how they broke from regular BP work (I don’t think it was ever a public thing), but it seems mostly amiable. I’ve seen some criticism of BP stats, and support of others.
I just think it’s amazing that we have several very solid stathead oriented blogs for the M’s. I wonder how many other teams have such a great community.
Adam Jones 2008 closest similarity scores based on these three hitting stats HR/AB, K/AB and BB/AB based on park adjusted 2008 ZIPS projections for all outfielders age 25 and less are.
1. Dorn (Cin)
2. Young (Ari)
3. Reimold (Bal)
4. Mather (Stl)
5. Pence (Hou)
Keep in mind it’s only based on these three important offensive stats and on 2008 production.
vr, Xei
Hey Derek, is the wins above replacement you mentioned just the straight VORP to wins adjustment?
You could also always support USSM, cough cough.
Where’s my damn button?
It is not.
I assume Bedard’s numbers are projected for Camden and Jones’ for Safeco. Both would presumably go up if they switched (but Sherrill’s would drop some, though not too much since he’s a strikeout pitcher).
Derek, BP uses WARP right? Their glossary says that a complete team of replacement level would win 20-25 games, so that doesn’t seem to match the Wins numbers that Dave was using earlier (with 50 wins being RL). Is Dave using a different Wins formual altogether, or does BP just have their’s calibrated a bit lower?
Hub – I have to agree with you before I stumbled onto USSM I was the same way. I am very greatful there is a site with all the statisical analysis for my hometown team. Unfortunately, most the time, the statisical analysis usually points to something thats the organization is doing wrong. But I can’t say its either Dave’s or Derek’s fault that the organization is the way it is.
The raw stats would change, but their value wouldn’t so much.
is too
Boy, do those PECOTA forecasts make me unhappy! I guess at his point you have to hope that veteran leadership will come through for us. The way our lineup is put together makes is look like a 73-75 win team with Jones and a 75-80 win team with Bedard. But 4.50 ERA is so un-Bedard-like! I don’t understand what factors (perhaps it is simply Lopez/Richie in the infield) could make Bedard so average. I mean, considering Bedard’s replacement would be HoRam, his VORP must be through the roof! A little help here, guys? I am lost.
Well, it’s subscriber only, so I will be unable to satisfy my curiousity about how any rational being could rate Jones’ potential ahead of Curtis Granderson’s. Is Jones the young Mickey Mantle, and not simply the young Chet Lemon?
Dave or DMZ,
Assuming the Bedard-Jones deal goes down, Where does that put the M’s payroll at? Can we expect any more moves of importance prior to the season starting?
Also, any thoughts on signing Bonds?
I had a nightmare last night that the trade went through and Bedard was in spring training with us. My dream only told me Jones and Sherill were gone, I don’t know the magical 5th player.
Is it likely that a Wilkerson Balentien platoon could outperform Jones offensively next year? Do you think that such a scenario is likely for McLaren?
BP’s pretty good.
I’m a big fan of Ron Shandler’s baseball forecaster numbers.
It’s an excellent book for statheads.
(no, I’m not related)
While I love Jones, he also gave a [surprisingly] good evaluation of Bedard.
His strikeouts per 9 went into elite levels last year. His walk [rate] was down. He didn’t have any terrible starts after April. His homers per flyball (which they say should stay at an average of 10%, was at 13%, which means it should regress)
And, last year was the first year his hits of of balls in play was near average, which means they may have been dropping too
much for him (not that Vidro and Co. would help that)
This guy like to be [critical] in his comments of most players. But, he was glowing of Bedard.
He like Jones more for the long haul, citing a low contact rate as a problem for the short term.
The problem I have with the trade isn’t Bedard. It’s that the trade seems to be weighted that it’ll be fair if Bedard meets the high point of expectations….and lousy
if he falls in between or falls short. It just looks like a case of our GM falling too in love with his assessment to be objective of a selling price. The comment days ago comparing this to the Johan Santana trade was dead on
cbuster
Woot. Baseball nerds unite. Today is gonna be a good day: PECOTA spreadsheets out, Diamond Mind Baseball should show up today…
Wow, PECOTA does hate Silva.
I always find it interesting how it’s projections for Ichiro every year are terrible. I’m sure it’s something about his particular skill set that PECOTA can’t get it’s math around. Most of Ichiro’s offensive value is tied up in his batting average and since batting average itself is a highly variable maybe when he gets projected out the numbers think he’ll come back down to earth eventually. Thoughts?
Just glancing through the last 3 years (’05-’07) Ichiro gets projected at 311/355/415, 308/343/406 and 310/354/398.
We’ve talked about Ichiro’s projections here before. The distilled version is that the only player like Ichiro is Ichiro, and by reaching way out to find comparable players, it does him a disservice.
The possessive form of it is its, by the way. As in “…how its projections…” “can’t get its math around…”
Taylor H- No, Bedard doesn’t get a 4.50 ERA. Berard’s projection is with the O’s, but Derek added him into the M’s rotation and the staff gets a 4.50 ERA.
Something I’ve noticed picking up BPro the last few years: PECOTA seems to do a lot of ‘regression to the mean’ projections. I have no idea if this is true or if CHONE or ZiPS do it too. Guys who do really well get pulled back and guys who do poor (richie) get brought up. There’s often not a lot of huge leaps one way or the other from what I’ve noticed. I’m sure it’s all very sound, I just found it interesting.
Thanks, Derek.
If you want a good comparable for Ichiro, you really have to go beyond where PECOTA or any other modern metric. Compare him to Ty Cobb. High hits, moderate doubles, better number of walks than Ichiro, but lots of stolen bases. Cobb was a career .366/.433/.512 hitter. Cobb only had 117 HR’s over 23 seasons.
Frick. I don’t think I ever really put together how similar they are.
That’s true, provided you include Ichiro’s Japan numbers.
Well, like Derek wrote, “The distilled version is that the only player like Ichiro is Ichiro, and by reaching way out to find comparable players, it does him a disservice.”
Cobb and Ichiro play(ed) in two completely difference run scoring enviroments. In the early 1900’s a lot of guys played a similar “style” to Ichiro and the Georgia Peach. Everyone did the slap thing.
Yep, different era. Cobb may have only had 117 HRs in 23 years, but he did lead the league in HRs once, came in 2nd three times and was in the top five seven of those 23 years.
Does PECOTA attempt to adjust for era when doing comps?
Anybody have a good suggestion for a freeware spreadsheet viewer? I have Microsoft Excel Viewer, but it won’t let me sort columns, I guess, which is no fun at all. And Google’s online spreadsheet software has has a file-size limit. Thanks.
Teej – http://www.openoffice.org/ should do the trick.
Open office is the way to go for free stuff.
OK, I think I’ve read about this package. Thanks a lot, guys.
[baseball nerds rock, learn to love them]
I think it’s funny how some random commenter can manage in a single line to be both ungrammatical and insulting while adding no value whatsoever by stating the obvious. The spillover of cognitive castrati from the PI blog continues…
jordan- You should google (or use your favorite search engine) and check out the accuracy of some of the systems. You might be impressed.
I think its funny how all you guys think that this is gonna be on.
It’s has an apostrophe. Projections is a plural noun, requiring a plural verb. “What some baseball nerds project” is not a sentence. Nerd’s has an apostrophe.
You might consider learning how to write before coming in here and insulting people.
Something I’ve noticed picking up BPro the last few years: PECOTA seems to do a lot of ‘regression to the mean’ projections.
Doesn’t that seem reasonable, though, based on observation? Someone would have to run the numbers (and I’m sure someone has) to confirm that anecdotal impression, but once a player has been in the league a couple of years it would seem that a big jump in numbers is more a matter of that proverbial “career” or “contract” year rather than an indication of a new, higher plateau of ability. Likewise the “black hole” year is usually the result of injury rather than an indication the player has fallen off a cliff, at least until the player is past 30. Even players that do plummet suddenly and permanently usually have a dead-cat-bounce year before they’re done.
There are exceptions of course but I don’t know how common they are (especially in a natural career trajectory, eg not Barry Bonds). Pitchers, especially, seem to be prone to the “finally figured it out” jump in ability well after their rookie year — eg RJ, Moyer, Halladay. But those guys are easy to call to mind precisely because they’re unusual.
Here’s a link. It’s BPro unfiltered so I’m not sure if it’ll link to non-subscribers.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564
Weather prediction is just projections made by science geeks. Ignoramuses used to make fun of that, too.
Whew, that’s a relief! Thanks for the clarification, galaxieboi. I was worried we might have traded our future for an average pitcher. Any guesses on Bedard’s line next year: strikeout-to-walk ratio, ERA, win total, innings pitched…
DMZ said in #10: “…That Bedard is ahead of Felix doesn’t mean that Bedard will have a better career from here out, but that the best case for him over the next five is better than Felix’s. That’s reasonable, when you consider where they both are in their careers.
So, are we supposing the benefits of that 5 years of “better than Felix” will be in a Mariner uniform, or will Bedard toil for the M’s for 2 years and just split?
(making Bavasi’s negotiating skills even less impressive than they already are)
Well, I’m pretty sure Derek was talking about it from the point of view of the pitchers, irrespective of whatever uniform(s) they might be wearing over that span.
Of course if Bedard is worth trading away all that young talent, you’d like to hang onto him for more than two years. Since the deal apparently hasn’t happened yet, we don’t know if there’s an extension involved as well. In fact that may be part of what is holding it up, particularly if (as rumored) Angelos also has been trying to get Bedard to take an extension to stay with the O’s. At this point I just have to throw up my hands in bewilderment, because I can’t recall a trade hanging around in semi-public limbo for as long as this one has. (Players holding out into spring training while negotiating a contract, sure, but stalling as a concious tactic doesn’t make much sense here). Even the Texas-Yankees ARod trade, including the abortive detour through Boston and the Player’s Association lawyers, didn’t take this long. I think we have to conclude that the comhination of Angelos and Bavasi is like some perfect storm of negotiational constipation.
maybe Bavasi and Angelos are so out of it they think they are in the NBA and are trying to do a sign and trade . . . wouldn’t shock me.
Given Bill Gates, Paul Allen, et al…tell me again WHY is being a nerd an insult?
what are JJ’s Pecota numbers? will it be worth heading out to “J.J. Putz Soul Patch Night” in ‘08?
53: Well, that strategy seemed to work out (at least somewhat) last year for Vancouver’s Canucks — who managed to trade about seven games worth of Todd Bertuzzi (and his baggage) to the Florida Panthers for four years worth of Roberto Luongo.
Not a bad haul if you can get it, I’d say…but yeah, the old “sign-and-trade” can sometimes be a tricky proposition.
Via VEB:
“For the growing number of baseball executives bent toward statistical analysis, a certain anticipation builds every off-season for the release of what is known simply as Pecota, Baseball Prospectus’s überforecast of every player’s performance the next season. Most front offices have an employee who consults it – particularly during the free-agent season.
No organization uses Pecota in a vacuum, instead incorporating it with other projection techniques like traditional scouting reports. . . .
“Everyone in baseball is in the guessing business,” the Mariners executive Dan Evans said. “This makes it a little bit less of a guess.” ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/sports/baseball/13score.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Hm.
I don’t know quite what to say to that.
Sorry Derek, I just noticed that using the old rough estimate of 10 runs equals one win you’d get the same wins over replacement as in your post.
If anyone is interested, PECOTA has 5.3 WARP for Jones and 6.0 WARP for Bedard. That’s supposed to include defense, which Upside includes as well.
Sorry Derek, didn’t mean to imply anything. I had just noticed that using the old rough estimate of 10 runs equals one win you’d get the same wins over replacement as in your post.
If anyone is interested, PECOTA has 5.3 WARP for Jones and 6.0 WARP for Bedard. That’s supposed to include defense, which Upside includes as well.
Given Bill Gates, Paul Allen, et al…tell me again WHY is being a nerd an insult?
No, no, no. It’s “geek” that’s not an insult. Nerd still is. Geeks can do math, nerds can’t.
“For the growing number of baseball executives bent toward statistical analysis, a certain anticipation builds every off-season for the release of what is known simply as Pecota, Baseball Prospectus’s überforecast of every player’s performance the next season. Most front offices have an employee who consults it – particularly during the free-agent season.
But, um, isn’t free-agent season pretty much over by the time PECOTA comes out? I guess they could use last year’s numbers.
So…they’re saying Dave and Derek can’t do math??? Given this blog????
I’m getting confused…
So…they’re saying Dave and Derek can’t do math??? Given this blog????
Dave and Derek can do math, making them geeks, not nerds. Geeks can do math, nerds just dress funny. Dave and Derek dress fine. Well, I’ve never seen what Derek wears on a long ride, so I’ll leave a caveat in there. If he looks like an Italian soft drink can on a bicycle, he could be both…
Oh, as far as
“Everyone in baseball is in the guessing business,” the Mariners executive Dan Evans said. “This makes it a little bit less of a guess.”
I’d prefer crap shoot to guessing game. “Baseball’s a crap shoot. This just gives you a little bit better idea of the odds.”
While I think there is some regression toward the mean in BP’s system, players are also assumed to follow a particular progression that is based on assumptions about aging as well as relating to the progression of their most comparable players. It’s not as simple as “up until 27 and then down later,” but takes into account that most players lose speed and gain power as they age, for instance. Outliers like Ichiro become really hard to predict in such a system. I also wonder if they have had to adjust their system based on juicers. If Mark McGwire is a comparable for you at an early age, but you’re not a juicer, I’d imagine you were more likely to have less power over time, but less likely to simply fall off the shelf and retire.
We’ve talked about Ichiro’s projections here before. The distilled version is that the only player like Ichiro is Ichiro, and by reaching way out to find comparable players, it does him a disservice.
The disservice is in only looking at players since 1956. I think you’d find some good comps for Ichiro in the deadball era (Hall of Famer Willie Keeler, for example).