Stone on the Bedard trade
Larry Stone, in Sunday’s Times runs down the state of the trade:
All current indications are that, after all the histrionics of the past week, the Mariners and Orioles will really, truly, actually, once and for all, no turning back, no mulligans, no backing out, no passing go, get this trade done. But check back tomorrow, because nothing is for certain in this messed-up deal.
Yeah.
Anyway, the particularly interesting part is that Stone talks about the who of the trade, and it reads like he’s a lot more sure of it than we’ve seen anywhere else:
The trio of young pitchers they’re talking to Baltimore about as part of the Erik Bedard package — 6-foot-9 Kam Mickolio, 6-foot-7 Tony Butler and 6-foot-5 Chris Tillman
then the complete deal:
If the deal turns out to be as speculated this past week — Bedard for Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and the aforementioned triplet towers of Tillman, Mickolio and Butler (to rank them by potential rather than height) — then the Orioles will have gone a long way toward replenishing their sagging talent base.
Ugh. What a crappy deal. I know we’ve discussed it to death here before, but every time it’s laid out like that it makes me want to throw up in my M’s cap. And then mail the cap to the team. Enough about that, though.
Here’s a fun game, though — who’s the executive?
One major-league executive said, “It’s a lot to give up, but the Mariners have to make that trade. So do the Orioles. With Felix and Bedard, it gives the Mariners a rotation that can compete with the Angels. And it gives the Orioles the pieces to rebuild a sorry situation.”
Let’s assume it’s not the Mariners or the Orioles. Probably not the Angels. If they’re being honest, it’s not one of the teams that knows how valuable that package is, and the M’s relative position in the league (I mean sure, it could be Beane trying to egg the M’s on, but I don’t see it). Someone who’d give Stone a quote while he’s working on the story for a Sunday edition, so probably someone he knows or who is known to be media-friendly…
Gillick? Kenny Williams?
F. U. BB.
This is really, really, really bad.
What exasperates me the most on this is the fact that Bavasi’s main strength was building up the farm system. now the ONLY good thing he’s done . . . he has torched. Unbelievable.
If this going down then it’ll probably be announced tomorrow. God I hope that this doesn’t happen.
I’m not a fan of the Bedard trade, but if it goes down as Jason has been indicating, the Ms aren’t trading 5 studs. The odds that Tillman and Butler even pitch in the majors let alone from the rotation are shockingly low. Truthfully, even though Mickolio demonstrated major league ready stuff last season, he’s still a long shot to have a notable major league career. Arms are a risk.
It’s Jones and Sherill that hurt this year (because the holes their departures create mitigate the upgrade Bedard represents) and it’s Jones that hurts over the next half decade because of his ceiling. It’s a poor decision because giving up Jones given the Ms likely place on the win curve makes the trade bad math. Even so, poor decisions can still work out.
How’s that for something to hang your Ms hat upon?
It’ll be fun watching Bedard and Felix though.
I wasn’t trying to imply that I think they’re all great prospects, only that if you would trade players you were sure would become stars for one guy because he’s an “ace” you should be kept away from teams.
Has Felix been properly developed as a player by the M’s? My personal opinion, which is worth nothing here, is no. Reading this site for a few years has me believing that most people here, including the authors would say no as well. Felix, as well as every other talent in this organization, is better elsewhere–unfortunately–since the M’s cannot develop talent and keep it here for their benefit. How’s that for pessimism?
55 – that is some quality pessimism, except your point is for the most part true.
I am going to have to change my opinion on the deal, since I have great faith in the abilities of Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio. I would have supported a 3 for 1 deal simply because I believe the M’s will resign Bedard for 4 or 5 years after acquiring him, but a 5 for 1 deal is absolutely ridiculous from an organizational standpoint There goes 2/5 of your future rotation, and your future closer or set-up man out the window – PLUS your current young star and the best lefty set-up man in the game. Now I can see why Dave and Derek are not happy at all.
Why couldn’t we have substituted Tuiasosopo or Reed or someone for Kam or Butler? Groan.
Oh. I hadn’t read comment 53 before posting. I guess that’s true.
Are you kidding? Felix is 21 and he’s already one of the top 15 starters in the A freakin’ L….
With this trade the Mariners become the Mercenaries. What position players have come up through the Mariner minor league system and stuck with the team? What does that say about your scouting system that the best it can do is produce cannon fodder for trades? The Mariner payroll is already one of the tops in the leagues (#7 at the start of 2007). Dumping your minor league players instead of promoting them to the big club forces you to spend more on veterans that may or may not be as good. The net effect will be a team that costs more and wins less – not good for the long run. The Angels dumped Bavasi after he restocked their farm system. The Mariners may have waited a year too late. Finally Jones is a terrific athlete and will be sorely missed.
PI reports Jones went to Baltimore today for his physical.
PI reports Jones went to Baltimore today for his physical.
They made him miss the SuperBowl to take his physical? Nice. Maybe they can schedule thre press conference on his mother’s birthday.
61 – Jones is from San Diego. Assuming that he’s a Chargers fan, he’s fortunate he got to miss out on the Eli lovefest.
I don’t agree with the premise that an important part of player development isn’t to provide talent to enable trades.
I also don’t agree with the premise that the Ms farm/scouting system is currently in disarray. It’s pretty strong right now and if it wasn’t, the apparent Bedard trade wouldn’t be possible. Even with the trade, it’s still a very interesting system.
I do agree that it will be disappointing to see Jones in another uniform.
“The problem is that we have no prospects even close to him in the system and few outfielders at all”
“But unlike Jones, we have stronger possibilities to replace [Sherrill] (and it’s somewhat easier to replace a bullpen arm). And an everyday right fielder is more valuable than a bullpen arm.”
The M’s strategy here centers on the assumption that they actually DO have replacements for Jones, as long as Jones is stuck in an outfield corner. obviously, you can disagree with that, but in Wlad the M’s have a guy who’s consistently ranked in the top 100 prospects in baseball. That’s not like Jones (easy top 10), but it’s something.
For one of the first times in their history, the M’s have two prospects who are well regarded at the same position (not pitchers). Obviously one’s a lot better, but I’m sure the M’s believe they’re dealing from depth. There are also OFs further down – from Mike Saunders all the way down to Carroll or Halman. We may not agree with the trade, but the M’s are deeper at OF now than they ever have been.
On the other side, there are a number of candidates to replace Sherrill’s innings as well – but the difference here is that Sherrill already IS the pre-eminent lefty reliever in baseball. RRS or EOF can be a solid, above league average reliever and STILL the team would be worse off. I can see an argument that Jones is easier to replace – knowing full well that this argument would probably skirt around defense.
I’m just trying to think this through from Bavasi’s perspective; not sure I LIKE that perspective, but still…
You should never judge a trade based on how the players work out afterward. Is it a worse trade for the M’s if Bedard gets hit by a bus in May?
Of course not. That’s absurd. Bavasi can’t foresee future bus accidents.
As such, how the prospects we’re sending to Baltimore develop is irrelevant. What matters is how they can reasonably be expected to develop, and by that measure Jones alone makes this a really lousy trade. Throw in the current value of Sherrill and the future likely future value of Tillman and Mickolio, and we’re getting robbed.
I dont understand how people are saying its a horrible trade already. We dont know what will happen. Granted the risks are a lot higher, but people are acting as if all of these prospects are going to be future all-stars. And that is just bogus. All we can do is wait and see, and work with whatever we got. If our bats can come alive with Bedard pitching anything remotely close to last year we will win more games.
Perhaps they know something you don’t?
And perhaps that’s it?
Hint: You’re making a lot of assumptions that aren’t born out in reality.