Stone on the Bedard trade
Larry Stone, in Sunday’s Times runs down the state of the trade:
All current indications are that, after all the histrionics of the past week, the Mariners and Orioles will really, truly, actually, once and for all, no turning back, no mulligans, no backing out, no passing go, get this trade done. But check back tomorrow, because nothing is for certain in this messed-up deal.
Yeah.
Anyway, the particularly interesting part is that Stone talks about the who of the trade, and it reads like he’s a lot more sure of it than we’ve seen anywhere else:
The trio of young pitchers they’re talking to Baltimore about as part of the Erik Bedard package — 6-foot-9 Kam Mickolio, 6-foot-7 Tony Butler and 6-foot-5 Chris Tillman
then the complete deal:
If the deal turns out to be as speculated this past week — Bedard for Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and the aforementioned triplet towers of Tillman, Mickolio and Butler (to rank them by potential rather than height) — then the Orioles will have gone a long way toward replenishing their sagging talent base.
Ugh. What a crappy deal. I know we’ve discussed it to death here before, but every time it’s laid out like that it makes me want to throw up in my M’s cap. And then mail the cap to the team. Enough about that, though.
Here’s a fun game, though — who’s the executive?
One major-league executive said, “It’s a lot to give up, but the Mariners have to make that trade. So do the Orioles. With Felix and Bedard, it gives the Mariners a rotation that can compete with the Angels. And it gives the Orioles the pieces to rebuild a sorry situation.”
Let’s assume it’s not the Mariners or the Orioles. Probably not the Angels. If they’re being honest, it’s not one of the teams that knows how valuable that package is, and the M’s relative position in the league (I mean sure, it could be Beane trying to egg the M’s on, but I don’t see it). Someone who’d give Stone a quote while he’s working on the story for a Sunday edition, so probably someone he knows or who is known to be media-friendly…
Gillick? Kenny Williams?
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So Jones, Sherrill and presumably Bedard still have not had physicals. If that’s the case this deal will take a few more days. Huzzah.
I saw somewhere where its a done deal and will be announced Monday. I really don’t like the idea but i will try to be optimistic and pray that Bedard will do what Moss did in New England after switching teams….thing is Bedard didn’t have a reason not to perform, so i don’t see him doing much better than the 13 and 5 with a sub 4 era, especially with the third worst defense in the AL
I hope we win the World Series with Bedard, because if we don’t this is a horrible deal and makes me hate the Ms current management with a passion.
I mean, it’s a horrible deal anyway, but if we somehow get lucky enough to get to the playoffs, then maybe the deal was worth it after all. It’s a long shot, but maybe.
So we’re getting raped harder than I thought on this. At this point we just have to resign ourselves to fate and hope for the best.
I wonder if we’ll ever get the complete story behind what took this deal so long to complete. I think Bavasi is personally holding this deal up because he wants to torture readers of USSM. Of course, to do that, the Orioles GM demanded that he throw in Butler and or Mickolio. Good times…
Gillick would be my top guess for the last quote. Though sometimes in the newspaper a “major-league executive” can be translated as “guy who works for a major league team who has a phone.” It could just be some dude. But I can’t imagine it would be anyone who knows the American League very well.
I was on the fence about this deal early on but the more I hear about it, the more I get sick to my stomach. I guess I want to hear more about what the Mariners options are now and what they could do to make the team better if this deal is a foregone conclusion. If they’re mortgaging the future for the next two years, then what could be done right now to make this team a playoff contender?
Prospect Insider previously had an update saying that Sherrill had not taken a psychical and was still in Arizona along with some other information that is now gone.
Here it is:
Adam Jones has apparently passed a Friday physical in Baltimore, which leads me to believe that George Sherrill has as well, and this trade is finally going to be announced officially on Monday.
He later striked out the Sherrill part with new information, then later removed this completely.
I was amused by Stone’s line that it was high risk, high reward in both directions. What exactly are the Orioles risking? There is no risk for them. I cannot believe that Baltimore has not completed this deal.
it is like hitting myself in the forehead over and over to read all this. Andy MacPhail went into the Bavasi General Store and pulled the cash shuffle on him.
I’d guess the quote is Kenny Williams.
He’s a GM that’s also obsessed with filling “roles”. Orlando Cabrera fills the need for a “#2 hitter”, Bedard fills the need for an “Ace”.
He’s also shown limited ability to guage the competitiveness of teams. If he thinks his 72 Win team is a few moves from contention, he looks at the M’s 88 wins plus 4-5 for Bedard and probably thinks they’re a legitimate playoff team.
Yeah it looks to me like the Orioles win if at least two of Jones, Sherrill or Tillman perform up to the mid-range of expectation. This is a good deal for the M’s only if Bedard reaches the high end of his performance projections, and begins doing so this year. Ok, then it’s still only a tolerable deal for the M’s. It’s a GOOD deal if Bedard is a total stud and four of the five guys we gave away turn out to be complete busts from this day forward.
Hey! They’re just prospects! Ya never kn–
Ack.I can’t even write that in jest….
With or without the trade, the M’s are probably no better than an 82 win team in 2008. With the trade, they’ll be no better than an 82 win team for years to come.
On the bright side, this may be the last horrible trade Bavasi makes for the M’s.
Hi hon. How was your day? Mine was great. I just spent all of our savings, and our children’s college fund, on a sports car with about 75,000 miles on it.
The M’s have to be getting something additional to Bedard if that truly is the package… if not Bavasi is obviously betting the farm for one year in an attempt to save his job. Much like Hargrove burned out the pen in April last year.
The reality is that in the long term, this move will probably cost him his job anyway. The M’s may benefit the next couple of years, but when Bedard leaves a free agent, and the Orioles constantly remind M’s fans of what “might have been”, Bavasi will be toast. His only hope is that with Felix and Bedard, the M’s make it to the World Series and that this is enough to entice Bedard to stay in Seattle as well as attract additional free agents.
15- We gotta find a different dealership.
With or without the trade, the M’s are probably no better than an 82 win team in 2008. With the trade, they’ll be no better than an 82 win team for years to come.
This is why USSM gets a reputation for pessimism. I think a reasonable projection for the ‘08 Mariners is something closer to 88 wins than .500.
Does anyone else ever get tired of commenting on how incompetent the M’s front office is? I do. But, then again they haven’t given us much evidence to the contrary to talk about.
We have heard numerous rumors about this trade and whos involved in it for the past week now. Let’s all sit back and relax and watch a good football game and not stress over who the Mariners are giving up just yet. Until this trade actually is official and the players involved are released, lets just chill.
I take all the information about this trade with a grain of salt. All I have to say, is I sure hope the Mariners don’t give up Jones, Sherril and the 3 pitchers!
msb – I’m not sure, man. Sure, McPhail is squeezing all he can, but really it is Bavasi who is doing the fleecing — to himself.
I’d like to think that a smart GM would have pulled out or held their offer as is. After the trade was so close to completion TWICE that AJ was told to stop playing winter ball, only to see this drag on for weeks longer.
Tons of credit to McPhail if this is all his doing, but I’m sure most of it comes from Angelos’ intervention and Bavasi feeling he is “pot committed.”
Any chance of getting Roberts, too?
We probably would have to give up Pork-Chop Lopez + ???????, but. . . we gotta’ get someone else that can help us.
Aren’t they pretty desperate for a SS?
This deal is done. Roberts is almost assured to go in another deal, unless you want this to be an 8 for 2 or something.
With spring training approaching, I almost think Roberts will go at the deadline, and not before the season starts.
You basically have to set your standards really low as an M’s fan. The management will suck at what they do, and there’s nothing we can do about it. If we’re ever getting to the playoffs, its by luck.
You basically have to set your standards really low as an M’s fan. The management will suck at what they do, and there’s nothing we can do about it. If we’re ever getting to the playoffs, its by luck.
ah, but the art of the cash shuffle is to get the victim to fluster himself & thus give you more money than you are entitled to….
18- good point. Let’s not forget that Sexson had a HORRENDOUS year last year. So between him, Raul’s absence of power through about 3/4 of the season and Lopez’s soph slump, they can certainly improve over last year.
I really don’t mind the fact that Jones could be gone. I just don’t want to see Sherrill leave. He’s clearly been one of, if not the most, dominating lefty relievers in baseball. O’Flaherty can pick up some of the slack, but they’ll suffer vs. lefties in the later innings. M’s can’t really count on Rhodes, at least not yet. He’s not even due to return until May 1, at the earliest.
82 wins isn’t pessimism. 78 wins, now that’s pessimism. That’s where I am. I think we’re going to suck, and suck hard, and I think even Bedard’s magic is going to fall in between our “fielders” for base hit after base hit. And by 2011, we’re going to be the Royals, with almost zero players left (except Felix, screaming for a trade) that any other team would want even for free.
I am interested to know the negotiation process with this deal. Was there really any negotiating? It just seems Bavasi is saying ok who do you want.
If they want to trade the farm, why dont they treat the first half of this year like many teams treat September,play and evaluate this talent at the MLB level before moving them, you know that is what Balitimore will do with these guys. If these guys are as good as everyone thinks we will get much more value for them next year. I know there is a shortage of aces, but there is always an arm available.
No one’s going to feel perfectly comfortable with this trade until it has a few years to shake out. For me, if Bedard becomes a shut-down TOR 20-game winner, it will have been a great trade, even if all five guys given up become future studs.
“If I were GM”, I’d do everything to have an insane #1, #2 and closer, because I’d always be thinking about winning in the playoffs, and these guys get two starts each and one will keep me from having a heart attack in the 9th. (I am reminded of Arizona with RJ and Shilling). I’d build a team around those three positions. also, free agent fielders get much easier to sign with these types of guys on the pitching staff.
In this trade, Bavasi gives us that chance today, when the team is reaching a 1-3 year peak (i.e. Ichiro!). And we’ve still got Betancourt, Morrow, Lowe, Clement, Balentien, Truinfel, Chen, Aumont, Tuiasusopo, Saunders, O’Flarety, and Rowland-Smith. Morse could still find an everyday spot.
I love the prospect of having 5-7 years of Felix, Bedard and Morrow as 1, 2, 3. A nice aspect of this trade is that the M’s can wait a full year to offer Bedard an extension, lessoning the risk to the M’s if he underperforms, but still leaving motivation for Bedard to extend when he’s got another year under team control and doesn’t want to risk injury or an off-year.
And I still want Griffey in RF this year now or at the trade deadline! Then to DH when Vidro is gone.
Ugh.
And really, if you’re willing to trade five players who all become studs for one player, I’m sorry, but I don’t want you as the GM of my team. Five studs under team control for no money is a championship core, a year-after-year division contender. You can have an ace and get nowhere. See: the Orioles.
To have your top two ’stud TOR’ starters even matter, you have to GET to the playoffs.
I wouldn’t.
I’d make sure I got to the playoffs, first.
re #12, #30
I remember reading a post on USSM about how you can’t evaluate a trade based on what happens in the future (something about Ichiro and a can of Sprite, if I recall). I completely agreed with that opinion, and applying it to this deal, it sucks from the Mariners standpoint and is a gem for the Orioles. The M’s get one good pitcher for two years; the O’s get a starting CF, a closer and three PITCHING prospects. No matter if all five players don’t reach their potential, this was a trade that the O’s must have been dreaming of.
These pitchers won’t become studs for the M’s. They must go to another team in order to do that.
M’s are incapable of developing talent.
Felix says “hi”
what
I was thinking I should skip season tickets this year in protest of the trade (the whole of the last two offseasons, really), then I realized, if Bavasi makes this trade, this year is probably the only chance the M’s have of making the playoffs for the next decade (and even then it’s not a great shot).
So, I guess I better re-up this year, maybe next year, and figure I can safely hop off the
bandwagonox cart when it clatters to a halt after that.Why does Sherrill need to be included in this trade? I am also amazed at the arms the Orioles are stacked with in their system (Loewen, Penn, Cabrera, and Guthrie). To add Tillman, Butler, and Mickolio is absurd. Throw in Jones, our #1 young stud, is robbery. Sherrill is just a kick to our collective balls. They have no reason for him in a rebuilding process. McPhail knows he is a valuable bullpen arm to us and that they can take whatever they want just for the hell of it.
I love Bedard, but not to this extent. I am fine with Jones leaving because we have to give up quality to get quality, but adding the numbers of arms in the deal is ridiculous. I guess the best we can hope for is that we are able to draft such fortunate arms this year to replenish our farm system.
Giving up Jones in and of itself is not the problem. The problem is that we have no prospects even close to him in the system and few outfielders at all—and we have a gaping hole in the outfield even WITH Jones.
If Jones is “just a prospect”, then so is every other prospect in the Ms system, from Wlad on down (perhaps even more so) and you’re committed to filling his hole with either more prospects that you don’t have faith in, trading for OFs with someone from a farm system you’ve made even thinner, or signing them as overpaid free agents (in a market that’s thin in adequate free agents).
Stupid, stupid, stupid.
I’m going to start a “just a veteran” meme
“No one’s going to feel perfectly comfortable with this trade until it has a few years to shake out. For me, if Bedard becomes a shut-down TOR 20-game winner, it will have been a great trade, even if all five guys given up become future studs.
“If I were GM”, I’d do everything to have an insane #1, #2 and closer, because I’d always be thinking about winning in the playoffs, and these guys get two starts each and one will keep me from having a heart attack in the 9th. (I am reminded of Arizona with RJ and Shilling). I’d build a team around those three positions. also, free agent fielders get much easier to sign with these types of guys on the pitching staff.”
There’s just so much wrong with this. If all 5 guys becomes studs, the deal is terrible even if Bedard does a Steve Carlton impersonation. Your trading for only 2 years of Bedard; anything after that and your paying market price.
As for building around 2 SPs and a closer, that’s an incredibly risky strategy. Pitching is way too variable and injury prone to commit 30-40% of your payroll to 3 pitchers. You’re much better off committing you $ to under 30 position players.
Closers are also way overrated. They can clearly be developed in house from draft picks or failed starters. Who was the closer on that AZ team anyway?
DMZ,
My point exactly.
That makes 0 sense.
Am I the only one that is worried that in July when this team is trying to ‘make a push’ into the playoffs the Mariners will deal away more talent to get a veteran reliever…like you know…George Sherrill.
Sherrill is the kicker… if you are making a trade in an attempt to win now, why in the world would you part with your only dominant lefty reliever who happens to be in his prime? It will be great to watch Bedard stuff teams for seven innings only to have the dominant left handed sluggers in the league torch a pen that will have no answer for them.
GS52 would’ve made a lot more sense if we signed Affeldt previously. However, I guess he wanted the opportunity to start again and the M’s couldn’t promise him that.
I love Sherrill. And losing him hurts.
But unlike Jones, we have stronger possibilities to replace him (and it’s somewhat easier to replace a bullpen arm). And an everyday right fielder is more valuable than a bullpen arm.
I’ve always thought trading a bullpen arm at peak value makes a whole lot of sense. If O’Flaherity can take over his role without losing anything, we’re good, but if he struggles, we’ll really be hurting there.
What peeeves me is that if Mickolio is involved in the deal too, then you are pretty much giving up the guy who could have taken Sherrill’s spot in the pen as well, so that’s 2 down. Would have liked them kept the Mick if that were the case, but I guess we’ll find out when it gets announced officially.
RRS? Or Mark Lowe?
(No, what’s really stupid is keeping Morrow in the pen).
F. U. BB.
This is really, really, really bad.
What exasperates me the most on this is the fact that Bavasi’s main strength was building up the farm system. now the ONLY good thing he’s done . . . he has torched. Unbelievable.
If this going down then it’ll probably be announced tomorrow. God I hope that this doesn’t happen.
I’m not a fan of the Bedard trade, but if it goes down as Jason has been indicating, the Ms aren’t trading 5 studs. The odds that Tillman and Butler even pitch in the majors let alone from the rotation are shockingly low. Truthfully, even though Mickolio demonstrated major league ready stuff last season, he’s still a long shot to have a notable major league career. Arms are a risk.
It’s Jones and Sherill that hurt this year (because the holes their departures create mitigate the upgrade Bedard represents) and it’s Jones that hurts over the next half decade because of his ceiling. It’s a poor decision because giving up Jones given the Ms likely place on the win curve makes the trade bad math. Even so, poor decisions can still work out.
How’s that for something to hang your Ms hat upon?
It’ll be fun watching Bedard and Felix though.
I wasn’t trying to imply that I think they’re all great prospects, only that if you would trade players you were sure would become stars for one guy because he’s an “ace” you should be kept away from teams.
Has Felix been properly developed as a player by the M’s? My personal opinion, which is worth nothing here, is no. Reading this site for a few years has me believing that most people here, including the authors would say no as well. Felix, as well as every other talent in this organization, is better elsewhere–unfortunately–since the M’s cannot develop talent and keep it here for their benefit. How’s that for pessimism?
55 – that is some quality pessimism, except your point is for the most part true.
I am going to have to change my opinion on the deal, since I have great faith in the abilities of Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio. I would have supported a 3 for 1 deal simply because I believe the M’s will resign Bedard for 4 or 5 years after acquiring him, but a 5 for 1 deal is absolutely ridiculous from an organizational standpoint There goes 2/5 of your future rotation, and your future closer or set-up man out the window – PLUS your current young star and the best lefty set-up man in the game. Now I can see why Dave and Derek are not happy at all.
Why couldn’t we have substituted Tuiasosopo or Reed or someone for Kam or Butler? Groan.
Oh. I hadn’t read comment 53 before posting. I guess that’s true.
Are you kidding? Felix is 21 and he’s already one of the top 15 starters in the A freakin’ L….
With this trade the Mariners become the Mercenaries. What position players have come up through the Mariner minor league system and stuck with the team? What does that say about your scouting system that the best it can do is produce cannon fodder for trades? The Mariner payroll is already one of the tops in the leagues (#7 at the start of 2007). Dumping your minor league players instead of promoting them to the big club forces you to spend more on veterans that may or may not be as good. The net effect will be a team that costs more and wins less – not good for the long run. The Angels dumped Bavasi after he restocked their farm system. The Mariners may have waited a year too late. Finally Jones is a terrific athlete and will be sorely missed.
PI reports Jones went to Baltimore today for his physical.
PI reports Jones went to Baltimore today for his physical.
They made him miss the SuperBowl to take his physical? Nice. Maybe they can schedule thre press conference on his mother’s birthday.
61 – Jones is from San Diego. Assuming that he’s a Chargers fan, he’s fortunate he got to miss out on the Eli lovefest.
I don’t agree with the premise that an important part of player development isn’t to provide talent to enable trades.
I also don’t agree with the premise that the Ms farm/scouting system is currently in disarray. It’s pretty strong right now and if it wasn’t, the apparent Bedard trade wouldn’t be possible. Even with the trade, it’s still a very interesting system.
I do agree that it will be disappointing to see Jones in another uniform.
“The problem is that we have no prospects even close to him in the system and few outfielders at all”
“But unlike Jones, we have stronger possibilities to replace [Sherrill] (and it’s somewhat easier to replace a bullpen arm). And an everyday right fielder is more valuable than a bullpen arm.”
The M’s strategy here centers on the assumption that they actually DO have replacements for Jones, as long as Jones is stuck in an outfield corner. obviously, you can disagree with that, but in Wlad the M’s have a guy who’s consistently ranked in the top 100 prospects in baseball. That’s not like Jones (easy top 10), but it’s something.
For one of the first times in their history, the M’s have two prospects who are well regarded at the same position (not pitchers). Obviously one’s a lot better, but I’m sure the M’s believe they’re dealing from depth. There are also OFs further down – from Mike Saunders all the way down to Carroll or Halman. We may not agree with the trade, but the M’s are deeper at OF now than they ever have been.
On the other side, there are a number of candidates to replace Sherrill’s innings as well – but the difference here is that Sherrill already IS the pre-eminent lefty reliever in baseball. RRS or EOF can be a solid, above league average reliever and STILL the team would be worse off. I can see an argument that Jones is easier to replace – knowing full well that this argument would probably skirt around defense.
I’m just trying to think this through from Bavasi’s perspective; not sure I LIKE that perspective, but still…
You should never judge a trade based on how the players work out afterward. Is it a worse trade for the M’s if Bedard gets hit by a bus in May?
Of course not. That’s absurd. Bavasi can’t foresee future bus accidents.
As such, how the prospects we’re sending to Baltimore develop is irrelevant. What matters is how they can reasonably be expected to develop, and by that measure Jones alone makes this a really lousy trade. Throw in the current value of Sherrill and the future likely future value of Tillman and Mickolio, and we’re getting robbed.
I dont understand how people are saying its a horrible trade already. We dont know what will happen. Granted the risks are a lot higher, but people are acting as if all of these prospects are going to be future all-stars. And that is just bogus. All we can do is wait and see, and work with whatever we got. If our bats can come alive with Bedard pitching anything remotely close to last year we will win more games.
Perhaps they know something you don’t?
And perhaps that’s it?
Hint: You’re making a lot of assumptions that aren’t born out in reality.